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Xero Limited (AU:XRO)
ASX:XRO

Xero Limited (XRO) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:XRO

Xero Limited

(Sydney:XRO)

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Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
AU$153.00
▲(32.33% Upside)
Xero Limited's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, offset by bearish technical indicators and high valuation concerns. The company's strategic initiatives and robust revenue growth are significant strengths, but technical and valuation metrics suggest caution.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term financial health.
International Expansion
Strong international growth highlights successful global strategy, enhancing market presence and diversifying revenue streams.
Cash Flow Management
Robust cash flow management provides financial flexibility for investments and debt servicing, supporting sustainable growth.
Negative Factors
Rising Debt Levels
Increasing debt levels could strain financial flexibility, necessitating careful management to maintain long-term stability.
Churn Increase
Rising churn rates may indicate customer retention challenges, potentially impacting future revenue stability.
Cost Management Challenges
Higher costs can pressure margins, requiring improved cost management to sustain profitability and competitive positioning.

Xero Limited (XRO) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Xero Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionXero Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a software as a service company in New Zealand, Australia, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company offers Xero, an open platform that connects small businesses to a range of solutions, which helps to manage their finances. It also provides Xero mobile app; and accountant/bookkeeper tools, including Xero HQ, Xero Practice Manager, Xero Workpapers, and Xero Cashbook or Xero Ledger. Xero Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Wellington, New Zealand.
How the Company Makes MoneyXero generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its cloud-based accounting software. The company offers various pricing tiers based on the features and services included, catering to businesses of different sizes and needs. Additionally, Xero earns revenue through add-on services and integrations with third-party applications, as well as through partnerships with financial institutions and accountants who promote its platform to their clients. Continuous investment in product development and marketing also play a significant role in driving customer acquisition and retention, thereby contributing to its overall earnings.

Xero Limited Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 12, 2025
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 14, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Xero's earnings call presented a generally positive outlook, with strong revenue growth across major regions and successful strategic initiatives like the Melio acquisition. However, challenges such as increased churn and specific regional issues in Canada were noted. Despite these, the overall financial health and strategic positioning of Xero appear robust.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Operating revenue grew 20% year-over-year to $1.194 billion, or 18% in constant currency, demonstrating sustained growth despite tough prior comparisons.
Regional Success
Australia delivered 19% revenue growth with subscribers up 9%. The UK and North America also showed strong performance with 25% and 21% revenue growth, respectively.
International Segment Growth
The International segment, including the U.K., North America, and Rest of World markets, saw a 24% revenue increase year-over-year, highlighting strong execution against strategic priorities.
Melio Acquisition and Integration
Completion of the Melio acquisition in October is expected to accelerate growth in the U.S. market, with plans to integrate Melio bill pay into Xero by December 2025.
Rule of 40 Achievement
Xero delivered a Rule of 40 outcome of 44.5%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-over-year, indicating strong cash generation and balanced growth.
Negative Updates
Churn Increase
MRR churn was 1.09%, slightly increasing from the last half, reflecting targeted growth in higher-churn segments.
Challenges in Canada
Revenue growth in North America was lower than expected, partly due to a subdued market in Canada and the absence of revenue from Xerocon.
Impact of Noncash Costs
General and administration costs increased by 2.4 percentage points due to higher executive personnel costs, affecting overall EBITDA margins.
Company Guidance
In the Xero Limited 2026 Interim Results Conference Call, significant guidance and metrics were shared. The company reported a 20% year-over-year increase in operating revenue, reaching $1.194 billion, with adjusted EBITDA rising by 12% to $351 million. The Rule of 40 outcome improved to 44.5%, highlighting strong cash generation. The ANZ region, including Australia and New Zealand, saw robust revenue growth, with Australia achieving a 19% increase. International markets, notably the U.K. and North America, showed impressive revenue growth of 24% and 21% respectively, despite challenges such as the absence of Xerocon revenue. The acquisition of Melio was highlighted as a strategic move to bolster U.S. operations, with Melio achieving 68% revenue growth. The company also reported a free cash flow margin of 26.9% and a $3.2 billion net cash position, reflecting disciplined financial management. Anticipated impacts from the Melio acquisition include a shift to a net debt position, which may affect the Rule of 40 performance in the latter half of fiscal '26. Overall, Xero demonstrated a strategic balance of revenue growth and profitability, underscoring a positive outlook for sustained financial performance.

Xero Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Xero Limited shows strong financial health with robust revenue growth and effective cost management. The company has a solid balance sheet with moderate leverage, although increasing debt levels require careful management. Cash flow is strong, providing flexibility for future investments.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Xero Limited demonstrates robust growth with a significant revenue increase from 2024 to 2025, reflecting a 21.56% growth rate. The gross profit margin is strong at 89.05% for 2025, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin, while positive at 10.84% in 2025, shows room for improvement compared to industry leaders. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, reflecting operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's balance sheet is solid, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.61 in 2025, indicating moderate leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is impressive at 10.38%, suggesting effective use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 49.19%, providing a healthy buffer against liabilities. However, the increase in total debt over the years suggests a need for cautious leverage management.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Xero Limited's cash flow is strong, with a significant increase in free cash flow by 37.85% from 2024 to 2025. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 3.56, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also healthy at 2.31. These metrics suggest strong cash flow management, providing flexibility for future investment and debt servicing.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.20B1.91B1.57B1.40B1.12B848.78M
Gross Profit1.81B1.70B1.43B989.43M810.40M616.76M
EBITDA590.14M697.39M510.98M105.70M49.51M77.61M
Net Income256.14M207.03M160.21M-113.53M-9.11M19.69M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.10B4.06B2.95B2.33B2.35B2.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments4.21B2.12B1.53B1.05B870.02M1.11B
Total Debt1.18B1.22B1.22B1.07B949.03M951.21M
Total Liabilities2.09B2.06B1.56B1.34B1.31B1.28B
Stockholders Equity4.01B2.00B1.39B986.53M1.04B745.95M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow909.13M477.70M585.17M102.22M-4.43M57.90M
Operating Cash Flow921.31M737.61M591.76M381.52M240.83M221.42M
Investing Cash Flow-388.93M-366.39M-242.01M-304.90M-430.04M-197.97M
Financing Cash Flow1.80B-160.78M-93.26M-303.10M-61.52M544.46M

Xero Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price115.62
Price Trends
50DMA
132.71
Negative
100DMA
148.14
Negative
200DMA
160.33
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-5.45
Negative
RSI
37.22
Neutral
STOCH
34.48
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:XRO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 115.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 117.53, below the 50-day MA of 132.71, and below the 200-day MA of 160.33, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:XRO.

Xero Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
AU$23.44B75.2312.61%0.32%15.51%17.38%
71
Outperform
AU$1.21B16.3065.33%9.71%25.67%744.90%
69
Neutral
$19.64B74.128.14%19.01%19.06%
65
Neutral
AU$1.69B47.4335.71%1.25%5.11%12.91%
65
Neutral
€1.58B17.8826.73%2.45%-4.10%341.80%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
61
Neutral
AU$9.28B67.2932.67%0.84%18.16%16.25%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:XRO
Xero Limited
115.62
-52.55
-31.25%
AU:TNE
Technology One Limited
28.37
-1.66
-5.54%
AU:WTC
Wisetech Global
67.23
-55.65
-45.29%
AU:IRE
IRESS Limited
8.54
-0.66
-7.18%
AU:BVS
Bravura Solutions Limited
2.65
0.77
40.96%
AU:OCL
Objective Corporation Limited
17.63
1.17
7.11%

Xero Limited Corporate Events

Xero Limited Expands Capital Base with New Securities Quotation
Dec 4, 2025

Xero Limited has announced the quotation of additional securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), with a total of 97,478 ordinary fully paid shares to be quoted. This move is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to enhance its financial flexibility and support its growth strategy, potentially impacting its market positioning by increasing its capital base.

Xero Limited Issues New Restricted Stock Units
Nov 27, 2025

Xero Limited has announced the issuance of 898,723 restricted stock units as part of a previously disclosed transaction. This move, which involves unquoted securities not intended for ASX listing, reflects the company’s ongoing strategy to manage its equity and incentivize stakeholders, potentially impacting its financial structure and market positioning.

Xero Limited Announces Cessation of Restricted Stock Units
Nov 25, 2025

Xero Limited announced the cessation of 91,229 restricted stock units due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This cessation of securities may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, reflecting on Xero’s operational adjustments and strategic focus within the competitive software industry.

Xero Expands with Acquisition of Melio Ltd
Nov 20, 2025

Xero Limited has issued over 4.3 million fully paid ordinary shares as part of its acquisition of Melio Ltd, a move announced in October 2025. This strategic acquisition aims to enhance Xero’s offerings and market position in the small business platform industry, with the shares being issued without disclosure under specific provisions of the Corporations Act.

Xero Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
Nov 20, 2025

Xero Limited has announced the quotation of 4,304,407 fully paid ordinary securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) as part of a previously announced transaction. This move is expected to enhance the company’s market presence and provide additional liquidity for stakeholders, reflecting Xero’s ongoing commitment to expanding its financial capabilities and market reach.

Xero Limited Director Increases Shareholding
Nov 19, 2025

Xero Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, with David Thodey acquiring 833 ordinary shares through an on-market trade, increasing his total holdings to 11,005 shares. This acquisition reflects a continued investment in the company by its leadership, potentially signaling confidence in Xero’s future performance and stability in the market.

Xero Limited Director Increases Shareholding
Nov 19, 2025

Xero Limited announced a change in the director’s interest notice, specifically concerning Mark Cross, a director and shareholder of Alpha Investment Partners Limited. On November 18, 2025, Cross acquired 820 ordinary shares at a price of AU$120.01 per share, increasing his total holdings to 5,292 shares. This transaction was conducted as an on-market trade, reflecting ongoing engagement and investment by company leadership, which could influence stakeholder perceptions and market confidence.

Xero Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
Nov 17, 2025

Xero Limited has announced the application for the quotation of additional securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). The issuance of these securities, resulting from the exercise of options or conversion of convertible securities, reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to enhance its financial structure and market presence. This move is likely to impact Xero’s operational capabilities and strengthen its position in the competitive financial software market.

Xero Releases FY26 Interim Results Presentation
Nov 12, 2025

Xero Limited has released its FY26 Interim Results Investor Presentation, which is available for viewing through a webcast. This announcement is part of Xero’s ongoing efforts to keep investors informed about its financial performance and strategic direction. The presentation may provide insights into the company’s operational progress and market positioning, potentially impacting stakeholders’ perceptions and decisions.

Xero Limited Achieves Strong Revenue Growth and Strategic Milestones in H1 FY26
Nov 12, 2025

Xero Limited reported a 20% increase in revenue for the first half of fiscal year 2026, reaching $1.2 billion, and maintained a Rule of 40 outcome of 44.5%. The company demonstrated strong growth in both its domestic and international markets, with significant subscriber additions and increased average revenue per user. The acquisition of Melio, a US SMB bill pay platform, is expected to accelerate growth and enhance value for US customers. Xero’s strategic focus on AI innovation, particularly through its JAX financial superagent, positions it to continue delivering value and maintaining its competitive edge in the SaaS industry.

Xero Limited Reports Strong Financial Growth in FY26 Interim Results
Nov 12, 2025

Xero Limited reported a significant financial performance improvement for the six months ending September 2025, with a 20% increase in revenues to NZ$1,194,193,000 and a 42% rise in net profit to NZ$134,784,000. Despite the strong financial results, the company decided not to declare or pay any dividends for the period, attributing the increase in net tangible assets per share to higher cash and short-term deposit balances.

Xero Completes Acquisition of Melio to Boost US Growth
Oct 15, 2025

Xero Limited has completed its acquisition of Melio Limited, a prominent US SMB bill pay platform, which will enhance Xero’s ability to manage cash flow and streamline operations for small businesses. This acquisition is expected to significantly accelerate Xero’s US revenue growth and potentially more than double its FY25 group revenue by FY28, excluding anticipated revenue synergies. The transaction involves a combination of cash, debt, and newly issued shares, and is expected to result in non-recurring costs and the recognition of amortisable intangible assets.

Xero Limited Announces Cessation of Securities
Oct 15, 2025

Xero Limited announced the cessation of several securities due to the lapse of conditional rights that were not met or became unachievable. This announcement may impact stakeholders by indicating potential challenges in meeting certain financial or operational conditions, which could affect the company’s market positioning and investor confidence.

Xero Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
Oct 6, 2025

Xero Limited has announced the application for quotation of new securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). This move involves the issuance of a significant number of ordinary fully paid shares, which could potentially enhance the company’s market presence and provide additional capital for its operations. The announcement reflects Xero’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its financial position and expand its reach within the industry.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 14, 2025