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Viva Energy Group Ltd.
(Sydney:VEA)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
AU$2.50
â–¼(-1.19% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is held back primarily by deteriorating profitability and a significantly more leveraged balance sheet, despite resilient operating cash flow. Technical indicators are relatively strong and provide support, while valuation is constrained by losses (negative P/E) with only modest help from the dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Diversified fuel & energy revenue streams
Viva Energy earns from refining, wholesale, retail fuel, convenience and specialty products plus storage/logistics. This multi-channel model smooths revenue volatility across customer segments, supports cross-margin optimisation and provides durable cash generation sources over months.
Negative Factors
Sharp rise in leverage
Debt-to-equity moved from moderate to elevated and very high in 2024–2025, materially weakening financial flexibility. Higher leverage increases refinancing risk and earnings sensitivity to commodity swings, constraining capital allocation and heightening downside risk over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified fuel & energy revenue streams
Viva Energy earns from refining, wholesale, retail fuel, convenience and specialty products plus storage/logistics. This multi-channel model smooths revenue volatility across customer segments, supports cross-margin optimisation and provides durable cash generation sources over months.
Read all positive factors
Viva Energy Group Ltd. (VEA) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$4.31B
Dividend Yield2.47%
Average Volume (3M)3.95M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.38
Revenue Growth-5.35%
EPS Growth-449.16%
CountryAU
Employees15,174
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.26
Shares Outstanding1,642,521,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,886,009
30 Day Avg. Volume3,951,103
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)2.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.11
P/FCF Ratio22.47
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$2.85Price Target Upside12.76% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$29.71B
Viva Energy Group Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Viva Energy Group Limited functions as a prominent energy provider with operations spanning Australia, Singapore, and Papua New Guinea. Its operations are structured across three primary segments: Retail, Fuels and Marketing; Refining; and Supply,...
How the Company Makes Money
Viva Energy primarily makes money by selling refined and imported fuel and other petroleum products across multiple channels, with earnings driven by volumes sold and the margin between product selling prices and input costs.
1) Refining and supp...
Viva Energy Group Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 28.53B | 29.99B | 26.74B | 26.43B | 15.87B |
| Gross Profit | 1.79B | 2.95B | 1.34B | 1.69B | 1.04B |
| EBITDA | 940.60M | 625.30M | 562.40M | 1.34B | 923.00M |
| Net Income | -421.10M | -76.30M | 3.80M | 514.30M | 232.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 13.40B | 12.13B | 9.08B | 9.31B | 8.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 170.50M | 192.70M | 215.50M | 290.50M | 96.70M |
| Total Debt | 9.17B | 5.53B | 3.00B | 2.46B | 2.67B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.97B | 10.23B | 7.07B | 6.95B | 5.91B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.43B | 1.90B | 2.01B | 2.36B | 2.11B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 145.80M | 17.50M | 181.60M | 802.70M | 342.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 703.30M | 605.60M | 674.30M | 1.11B | 528.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -628.60M | -1.54B | -694.30M | -284.50M | -217.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -96.90M | 909.10M | -55.00M | -628.10M | -263.00M |
Viva Energy Group Ltd. Technical Analysis
Positive
2.53
Price Trends
2.34
Positive
2.36
Positive
2.14
Positive
Market Momentum
0.11
Positive
63.08
Neutral
34.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:VEA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.58, above the 50-day MA of 2.34, and above the 200-day MA of 2.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:VEA.
Viva Energy Group Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | AU$60.37B | 16.07 | 7.67% | 4.91% | -5.14% | -22.20% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
63 Neutral | AU$1.88B | 7.09 | 8.74% | 7.66% | -8.77% | ― | |
62 Neutral | AU$1.15B | 7.23 | 12.15% | 3.02% | -17.21% | 8.09% | |
61 Neutral | AU$24.79B | 21.79 | 5.26% | 4.38% | -5.72% | -31.55% | |
58 Neutral | AU$9.17B | 116.47 | 2.68% | 2.54% | -10.26% | -32.72% | |
52 Neutral | AU$4.31B | -10.40 | -27.20% | 3.21% | -5.35% | -449.16% |
* Energy Sector Average
AU:VEA
Viva Energy Group Ltd.
2.71
0.74
37.35%
AU:BPT
Beach Energy
0.87
-0.29
-25.11%
AU:ALD
Ampol Limited
39.60
13.39
51.08%
AU:KAR
Karoon Energy Ltd
1.73
-0.09
-5.05%
AU:STO
Santos Limited
8.03
0.49
6.54%
AU:WDS
Woodside Energy Group
32.78
7.82
31.35%
Viva Energy Group Ltd. Corporate Events
State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Viva Energy
Jul 28, 2026
State Street Corporation and several of its global asset management and banking subsidiaries have filed a notice stating they have ceased to be a substantial holder in Viva Energy Group Limited as of 24 July 2026. The change reflects a reduction i...
Viva Energy boosts earnings on strong refining margins and retail growth
Jul 27, 2026
Viva Energy has reported a sharp improvement in first-half 2026 results, with unaudited Group EBITDA (RC) expected at $770–780 million, more than double the prior year, driven by elevated regional refining margins and solid performance acros...
State Street Group Withdraws as Substantial Holder in Viva Energy
Jul 22, 2026
State Street Corporation, through several global asset management and trustee subsidiaries, has lodged a notice that it has ceased to be a substantial holder in Viva Energy Group Ltd. The filing under Australia’s Corporations Act indicates t...
State Street Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Viva Energy
Jul 14, 2026
Viva Energy Group Limited has disclosed that State Street Corporation and several of its asset management and trustee subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders in the company. The notice, lodged under Australia’s Corporations Act, i...
State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Viva Energy
Jul 6, 2026
State Street Corporation and a group of its investment management subsidiaries have notified Viva Energy Group that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in the company as of 2 July 2026. The change reflects a reduction in their relevant vot...
Viva Energy strengthens board with appointment of energy sector veteran Sally Martin
Jul 2, 2026
Viva Energy Group Ltd. has appointed Sally Martin as an independent non-executive director, effective 1 September 2026. Martin brings extensive international experience across refining, trading, distribution and high-risk operations, built over a ...
State Street Group Drops Below Substantial Holder Threshold in Viva Energy
Jul 2, 2026
State Street Corporation and a group of its global asset management and banking subsidiaries have lodged a notice with Viva Energy Group Ltd. advising that they have ceased to be substantial holders in the company. The filing, made under section 6...
State Street Group ceases to be substantial holder in Viva Energy
Jun 26, 2026
Viva Energy Group Limited has disclosed that State Street Corporation and several of its asset management subsidiaries, including State Street Global Advisors entities, have ceased to be substantial shareholders in the company as of 24 June 2026. ...
Viva Energy Restores Key Geelong Refinery Unit as Alkylation Outage Persists
Jun 23, 2026
Viva Energy has completed the restart of the Residue Catalytic Cracking Unit at its Geelong Refinery, restoring a key processing capability and lifting production to more than 90 percent of normal capacity after an April fire. The restart enhances...
State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Viva Energy
May 22, 2026
State Street Corporation and several of its asset management subsidiaries have notified Viva Energy Group Limited that they have ceased to be substantial shareholders in the company as of 20 May 2026. The change reflects a reduction in their relev...
Viva Energy Shareholders Back All Resolutions at 2026 AGM
May 21, 2026
Viva Energy Group Ltd. reported that all resolutions put to shareholders at its 2026 Annual General Meeting were passed by poll, with the hybrid meeting accessible via webcast on the company’s website. The adoption of the remuneration report...
Viva Energy Director Trims Shareholding to Cover Tax Obligations
May 7, 2026
Viva Energy Group Limited has disclosed a change in the shareholding of director Scott Wyatt, who conducted an on‑market sale of 250,000 ordinary shares on 5 May 2026 to meet tax obligations. Following the transaction, Wyatt’s direct h...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.