Viva Energy Group Ltd. (VEA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €2.94B
• Dividend Yield: 3.06%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.95M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.23
• Revenue Growth: 8.16%
• EPS Growth: -311.36%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 15,201
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 1,625,652,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,886,009
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,951,103
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.14
• P/FCF Ratio: 237.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €2.56
• Price Target Upside: 16.82% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$2.00 ▼(-8.68% Downside)

Viva Energy Group Ltd.'s overall stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance and technical analysis. The company shows revenue resilience but struggles with profitability and leverage. The stock's bullish technical indicators are tempered by overbought signals, and the negative P/E ratio highlights profitability concerns. The dividend yield offers some investor appeal.

Viva Energy Group Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Viva Energy Group Limited operates as an energy company in Australia, Singapore, and Papua New Guinea. It operates through three segments: Retail, Fuels and Marketing; Refining; and Supply, Corporate and Overheads. The Retail, Fuels and Marketing segment supplies and markets fuel products through a network of approximately 1,330 retail service stations under Shell, Liberty, Westside Petroleum, and Viva Energy brands, as well as to other retail operators and wholesalers; supplies fuel, lubricants, and specialty hydrocarbon products to commercial customers in the aviation, marine, transport, resources, and construction and manufacturing industries. The Refining segment owns and operates a refinery in Geelong, Victoria; and offers specialty products, such as liquid petroleum gas, bitumen, oils, chemical products, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, as well as aviation gasoline for use in piston engine aircraft, and aromatic and aliphatic based solvent products. The Supply, Corporate and Overheads segment owns and manages an integrated supply chain of terminals, storage tanks, depots, pipelines, and distribution assets in Australia. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Docklands, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Viva Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of refined petroleum products, including petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel, to retail consumers and commercial clients. The company's revenue model includes several key streams: retail fuel sales from its service station network, wholesale fuel supply contracts with businesses, and the sale of lubricants and other related products. Additionally, Viva Energy benefits from its refining operations, which allow it to produce fuels domestically and capture value in the supply chain. Strategic partnerships with companies in the aviation and marine sectors further enhance its revenue potential. Factors contributing to the company's earnings include fluctuations in global oil prices, demand for fuel, and operational efficiency at its refinery.

Viva Energy Group Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Viva Energy Group Ltd. has shown resilience in revenue growth but faces challenges with profitability and leverage. The company maintains positive free cash flow, but increased debt levels and negative net income in the latest year pose risks.

Income Statement

Viva Energy Group Ltd. has shown a consistent increase in total revenue from 2020 to 2024, with a notable recovery post-2020. However, the company experienced a negative net income in 2024, resulting in a negative net profit margin. Gross profit margin has improved over the years, indicating better cost management. The absence of EBIT in 2024 indicates operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased significantly from 2023 to 2024, indicating higher leverage and potential risk. However, it maintains a reasonable equity ratio. The decline in stockholders' equity and the increase in total debt suggest financial strain.

Cash Flow

Viva Energy's free cash flow has fluctuated over the years but remains positive in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is challenging to assess due to a zero operating cash flow in 2024. The positive free cash flow to net income ratio in previous years indicates operational efficiency despite recent setbacks.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	30.72B	29.99B	26.74B	26.43B	15.87B	12.38B
Gross Profit	2.20B	2.95B	1.34B	1.69B	1.04B	386.10M
EBITDA	395.90M	625.30M	562.40M	1.34B	923.00M	364.90M
Net Income	-351.70M	-76.30M	3.80M	514.30M	232.90M	-36.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.57B	12.13B	9.08B	9.31B	8.02B	7.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	236.30M	192.70M	215.50M	290.50M	96.70M	49.10M
Total Debt	5.79B	5.53B	3.00B	2.46B	2.67B	2.69B
Total Liabilities	10.90B	10.23B	7.07B	6.95B	5.91B	5.11B
Stockholders Equity	1.67B	1.90B	2.01B	2.36B	2.11B	2.06B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	14.20M	17.50M	181.60M	802.70M	342.00M	64.70M
Operating Cash Flow	662.40M	605.60M	674.30M	1.11B	528.00M	230.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-739.50M	-1.54B	-694.30M	-284.50M	-217.40M	526.50M
Financing Cash Flow	15.40M	909.10M	-55.00M	-628.10M	-263.00M	-826.90M

Viva Energy Group Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2.19
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:VEA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.19 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.08, above the 50-day MA of 1.91, and above the 200-day MA of 1.91, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.61 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:VEA.

Viva Energy Group Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ORG	71 Outperform	$19.72B	13.33	15.06%	5.20%	6.48%	6.25%
WDS	71 Outperform	AU$48.52B	10.58	8.51%	6.74%	17.13%	61.35%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
STO	65 Neutral	$20.38B	12.89	6.59%	5.82%	-5.81%	-17.90%
VEA	61 Neutral	€2.94B	-8.24	-18.38%	3.06%	8.16%	-311.36%
ALD	61 Neutral	AU$7.61B	―	-4.22%	1.39%	-15.39%	-119.57%
BPT	60 Neutral	AU$2.62B	―	-1.02%	7.79%	17.16%	90.79%

Viva Energy Group Ltd. Corporate Events

Viva Energy Announces Director’s Interest Change

Viva Energy Group Ltd has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically regarding Scott Wyatt, who has been awarded 764,525 Performance Rights under the company’s Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) for 2025. This change, approved at the company’s Annual General Meeting, reflects the company’s commitment to aligning executive interests with long-term shareholder value, potentially impacting the company’s governance and stakeholder confidence.

Viva Energy Director Increases Shareholding

Viva Energy Group Ltd. announced a change in the director’s interest as Sarah Ryan acquired an additional 10,000 ordinary shares, bringing her total to 129,667 shares. This on-market acquisition reflects a strategic move within the company’s leadership, potentially impacting investor confidence and stakeholder perceptions positively.

Viva Energy Director Increases Shareholding

Viva Energy Group Ltd has announced a change in the director’s interest, with Director Arnoud De Meyer acquiring 11,000 additional ordinary shares through an on-market trade, increasing his total shareholding to 196,943 shares. This transaction reflects a strategic move by the director, potentially indicating confidence in the company’s future performance and stability, which may influence stakeholder perceptions and market positioning.

Viva Energy Reports Q3 2025 Sales Growth and Strategic Advancements

Viva Energy Group Ltd. reported a slight increase in total group sales volumes for the third quarter of 2025, driven by growth in commercial and industrial fuel sales, despite a decline in convenience and mobility fuel sales. The company is undergoing strategic initiatives to enhance operational efficiency, including major maintenance at its Geelong refinery and expansion of its convenience store network. The refinery is expected to return to optimized production, aligning with upcoming fuel quality standards. Additionally, the company is on track to achieve significant cost reductions and synergies, aiming for $80 million in benefits for the fiscal year 2025.

Viva Energy Group Ltd. Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX

Viva Energy Group Ltd. has announced the quotation of 10,896,306 fully paid ordinary securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) as of September 30, 2025. This move is part of a dividend or distribution plan, potentially enhancing the company’s liquidity and market presence, and offering stakeholders an opportunity to engage with the company’s growth strategy.

Viva Energy Announces Leadership Changes in Convenience and Mobility Sector

Viva Energy Group Ltd announced significant leadership changes in its Convenience and Mobility (C&M) business, with the resignation of CEO Jevan Bouzo. Jennifer Gray, currently the Group COO, will serve as Interim CEO while the company searches for a new leader with extensive retail experience. The changes are part of a strategic transition following the consolidation of major acquisitions, including Coles Express and Liberty Convenience, establishing Viva Energy as a leading convenience retail business in Australia. Despite these changes, the company maintains its strategic priorities and outlook as previously communicated.

Viva Energy Updates Dividend Reinvestment Plan Price

Viva Energy Group Ltd. announced an update regarding its Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) price, related to the dividend distribution for the six-month period ending on June 30, 2025. This update, following a previous announcement on August 26, 2025, provides clarity on the financial arrangements for stakeholders, potentially impacting investor decisions and company valuation.