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Viva Energy Group Ltd. (AU:VEA)
ASX:VEA

Viva Energy Group Ltd. (VEA) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:VEA

Viva Energy Group Ltd.

(Sydney:VEA)

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Neutral 43 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
AU$2.00
â–²(9.29% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
The score is held down primarily by weakening earnings and significantly higher leverage, despite resilient operating cash flow and improved free cash flow in 2025. Technicals are mixed with a negative MACD and the price below key longer-term moving averages, while valuation is only modestly supported by the dividend given the negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Cash generation resilience
Sustained positive operating cash flow despite accounting losses shows the business converts sales into cash via retail and wholesale channels. Improved FCF in 2025 provides cash to fund maintenance capex, working capital and partial debt service, cushioning near-term financing risks.
Branded retail network
A large Shell-branded retail network delivers durable demand, customer recognition and access to higher-margin convenience retail. Brand affiliation and station footprint support stable fuel volumes, diversified revenue streams and defensive cash flows versus pure wholesale exposure.
Refining capability with positive gross margins
Owning and operating the Geelong refinery provides vertical integration and the ability to capture refining spreads. Positive and improving gross margins indicate the refinery and trading operations can still extract product value, supporting medium-term margin recovery if utilization holds.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Rapidly higher leverage and a much smaller equity base increase refinancing and solvency risks. Elevated debt amplifies earnings volatility, limits strategic flexibility for capex or acquisitions, and raises interest coverage sensitivity if margins or cash flows weaken again.
Deteriorating profitability
Transition from solid earnings to losses erodes retained capital and weakens returns. Persistent negative net income reduces internal funding for investment and dividends, increases dependence on external financing, and makes recovery contingent on sustained margin improvement.
Revenue volatility and recent decline
Volatile, declining revenue undermines predictability of cash flows and planning. Falling top-line pressures per-litre and retail sales leverage, complicates cost absorption and margin recovery, and weakens the company's ability to deleverage while demand patterns remain uncertain.

Viva Energy Group Ltd. (VEA) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Viva Energy Group Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionViva Energy Group Limited operates as an energy company in Australia, Singapore, and Papua New Guinea. It operates through three segments: Retail, Fuels and Marketing; Refining; and Supply, Corporate and Overheads. The Retail, Fuels and Marketing segment supplies and markets fuel products through a network of approximately 1,330 retail service stations under Shell, Liberty, Westside Petroleum, and Viva Energy brands, as well as to other retail operators and wholesalers; supplies fuel, lubricants, and specialty hydrocarbon products to commercial customers in the aviation, marine, transport, resources, and construction and manufacturing industries. The Refining segment owns and operates a refinery in Geelong, Victoria; and offers specialty products, such as liquid petroleum gas, bitumen, oils, chemical products, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, as well as aviation gasoline for use in piston engine aircraft, and aromatic and aliphatic based solvent products. The Supply, Corporate and Overheads segment owns and manages an integrated supply chain of terminals, storage tanks, depots, pipelines, and distribution assets in Australia. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Docklands, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyViva Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of refined petroleum products, including petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel, to retail consumers and commercial clients. The company's revenue model includes several key streams: retail fuel sales from its service station network, wholesale fuel supply contracts with businesses, and the sale of lubricants and other related products. Additionally, Viva Energy benefits from its refining operations, which allow it to produce fuels domestically and capture value in the supply chain. Strategic partnerships with companies in the aviation and marine sectors further enhance its revenue potential. Factors contributing to the company's earnings include fluctuations in global oil prices, demand for fuel, and operational efficiency at its refinery.

Viva Energy Group Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financials are pressured by deteriorating profitability (near-breakeven in 2023, losses in 2024–2025) and sharply higher leverage as equity fell and debt rose. Operating cash flow staying positive and improved free cash flow in 2025 are key offsets, but weak earnings and balance-sheet risk dominate.
Income Statement
38
Negative
Revenue has been volatile—strong expansion in 2021–2022, modest growth in 2023–2024, followed by a decline in 2025. Profitability has weakened meaningfully: after solid earnings in 2021–2022, the business slipped to near-breakeven in 2023 and losses in 2024–2025, with very thin operating margins and a negative net margin in the most recent year. A positive is that gross margin remains positive and improved versus 2023, but the overall earnings trajectory has deteriorated and is the key drag on the score.
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Leverage increased sharply, with debt rising and equity falling over the last two years. Debt-to-equity moved from moderate levels in 2022–2023 to elevated in 2024 and very high in 2025, which reduces financial flexibility and increases refinancing/earnings sensitivity risk. Returns on equity also turned strongly negative in 2024–2025, reflecting losses on a shrinking equity base. The balance sheet profile is the weakest of the three statements due to the rapid leverage build.
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
Cash generation is a relative bright spot: operating cash flow stayed positive across all years and held up in 2024–2025 despite net losses, indicating some resilience in underlying cash conversion. Free cash flow rebounded strongly in 2025 versus 2024, although it remains well below the peak levels seen in 2021–2022. Offsetting this, cash flow coverage versus debt remains low, which matters more given the higher leverage, and free cash flow has been choppy year to year.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue28.53B29.99B26.74B26.43B15.87B
Gross Profit1.79B2.95B1.34B1.69B1.04B
EBITDA940.60M625.30M562.40M1.34B923.00M
Net Income-421.10M-76.30M3.80M514.30M232.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets13.40B12.13B9.08B9.31B8.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments170.50M192.70M215.50M290.50M96.70M
Total Debt9.17B5.53B3.00B2.46B2.67B
Total Liabilities11.97B10.23B7.07B6.95B5.91B
Stockholders Equity1.43B1.90B2.01B2.36B2.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow145.80M17.50M181.60M802.70M342.00M
Operating Cash Flow703.30M605.60M674.30M1.11B528.00M
Investing Cash Flow-628.60M-1.54B-694.30M-284.50M-217.40M
Financing Cash Flow-96.90M909.10M-55.00M-628.10M-263.00M

Viva Energy Group Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price1.83
Price Trends
50DMA
1.93
Negative
100DMA
1.93
Negative
200DMA
1.98
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.04
Negative
RSI
50.27
Neutral
STOCH
35.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:VEA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.78, below the 50-day MA of 1.93, and below the 200-day MA of 1.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:VEA.

Viva Energy Group Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
AU$20.51B20.4415.06%5.30%6.48%6.25%
70
Outperform
AU$57.43B12.738.51%7.16%17.13%61.35%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
60
Neutral
AU$2.61B-22.54-1.02%7.72%17.16%90.79%
60
Neutral
AU$23.36B17.276.59%6.00%-5.81%-17.90%
46
Neutral
AU$6.93B81.46-4.22%1.40%-15.39%-119.57%
43
Neutral
AU$2.97B-7.03-18.38%3.21%8.16%-311.36%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:VEA
Viva Energy Group Ltd.
1.83
0.11
6.71%
AU:BPT
Beach Energy
1.15
-0.21
-15.44%
AU:ALD
Ampol Limited
29.06
2.61
9.87%
AU:ORG
Origin Energy Limited
11.95
1.79
17.58%
AU:STO
Santos Limited
7.21
0.86
13.47%
AU:WDS
Woodside Energy Group
30.24
6.61
27.97%

Viva Energy Group Ltd. Corporate Events

Viva Energy issues disclaimer-heavy notice alongside 2025 results
Feb 23, 2026

Viva Energy Group Limited released a document relating to its full-year 2025 results, but the text provided consists almost entirely of standard legal and investor disclaimers rather than financial or operational data. The company emphasises that the material is for general information only, urges investors to undertake their own analysis, and disclaims liability for any reliance on the presentation.

The release underscores that any forward-looking statements are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, and may differ materially from actual outcomes. It also clarifies that Viva Energy operates as a Shell licensee using Shell trademarks, and that the views expressed are solely those of Viva Energy rather than the Shell Group, offering important context for investors and other stakeholders reviewing its disclosures.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:VEA) stock is a Buy with a A$2.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Energy Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:VEA Stock Forecast page.

Viva Energy Releases 2025 Corporate Governance Statement and Appendix 4G
Feb 23, 2026

Viva Energy Group Ltd. has released its 2025 Corporate Governance Statement and Appendix 4G, as authorised by the company’s Board. The publication of these documents provides transparency on the company’s governance practices and compliance framework, offering investors and other stakeholders updated insights into its oversight, accountability, and reporting structures.

These disclosures support market confidence by outlining how Viva Energy aligns with corporate governance expectations set by the Australian Securities Exchange. Regular governance reporting can influence investor perceptions of risk management and board effectiveness, potentially affecting the company’s reputation and its standing among institutional and retail shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:VEA) stock is a Buy with a A$2.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Energy Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:VEA Stock Forecast page.

Viva Energy Lifts Second-Half Earnings as Retail Integration and Refining Strength Take Hold
Feb 23, 2026

Viva Energy reported FY2025 EBITDA of $700.9 million, with a strong second half driven by improved refining and retail fuel margins, record Commercial & Industrial sales volumes and better performance in Convenience & Mobility as acquisition synergies and cost savings flowed through. The company completed the full acquisition of Liberty Convenience, opened 35 new OTR stores, implemented new ERP systems to support a large multi-brand retail platform, and successfully commissioned its Ultra Low Sulphur Gasoline plant ahead of regulatory changes, positioning the business for operational stability, lower capex and balance sheet deleveraging in the coming years.

Despite weaker first-half results and refinery disruptions from a power outage and major maintenance, second-half EBITDA rose 33% year-on-year, underlining the resilience of Viva Energy’s commercial operations and the early benefits of retail integration. Management highlighted a simpler retail model, strengthened systems and controls, and a plan to reduce gearing towards 2x net debt to EBITDA by 2027, which together are expected to support more stable earnings and improved financial flexibility for shareholders and creditors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:VEA) stock is a Buy with a A$2.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Energy Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:VEA Stock Forecast page.

Viva Energy Declares Interim Dividend for December 2025 Half-Year
Feb 23, 2026

Viva Energy Group Ltd. has declared an ordinary dividend of AUD 0.0394 per fully paid share, relating to the six-month period ended 31 December 2025, with an ex-dividend date of 12 March 2026 and a record date of 13 March 2026. The dividend will be paid on 31 March 2026, with a dividend reinvestment plan election deadline of 16 March 2026, signalling continued capital returns to investors and providing shareholders with flexibility in how they receive their distribution.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:VEA) stock is a Buy with a A$2.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Energy Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:VEA Stock Forecast page.

Viva Energy Posts 2025 Loss on Historical Cost but Maintains Dividends
Feb 23, 2026

Viva Energy Group Limited has reported its preliminary full-year 2025 results, showing revenue of $28.53 billion, down 1.1% from 2024. On a historical cost basis, the company swung to a net loss after tax of $421.1 million, compared with a $76.3 million loss in the prior year, while on a replacement cost basis it delivered net profit after tax of $183.6 million, a 27.8% decline.

Underlying earnings per share on a replacement cost basis fell to 11.5 cents from 16.1 cents, highlighting weaker underlying profitability despite the non‑IFRS metric being used to strip out inventory, derivative revaluations, and one‑off impacts. The board declared a fully franked 2025 interim dividend of 2.83 cents per share and a final dividend of 3.94 cents per share, signalling an ongoing capital return to shareholders even as margins and earnings came under pressure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:VEA) stock is a Buy with a A$2.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Energy Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:VEA Stock Forecast page.

Viva Energy taps retail veteran Teresa Rendo to lead convenience and mobility push
Feb 4, 2026

The company named Teresa Rendo, a veteran of major Australian retailers including The Just Group, BIG W, and Woolworths, as Chief Executive Officer of its Convenience and Mobility division effective July 2026 after relocating to Adelaide. The appointment is intended to bolster Viva Energy’s push toward a world-class convenience proposition by leveraging Rendo’s multi-brand trading, sourcing, and operational expertise to strengthen customer experience, top-line growth, and execution across its retail network.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:VEA) stock is a Buy with a A$2.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Energy Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:VEA Stock Forecast page.

Viva Energy Lifts Volumes and Margins as Geelong Refinery Upgrade and OTR Rollout Offset Convenience Headwinds
Jan 29, 2026

Viva Energy reported a modest 1.1% rise in total group sales volumes for the fourth quarter of 2025, with growth in Commercial & Industrial fuels, particularly aviation, offsetting weaker marine demand and disruptions in the Convenience & Mobility segment from store conversions and mandated divestments of Liberty sites. Convenience sales declined 11.4% year-on-year in the quarter, driven by a sharp 33.6% fall in tobacco sales amid ongoing illicit trade pressures, although tobacco volumes stabilised in the second half and overall convenience gross margin improved to 42.2%, supported by resilient non-tobacco categories and an expanding OTR-format network, where like-for-like ex-tobacco sales grew 1.9%. On the refining side, Geelong delivered a strong refining margin of US$12.1 per barrel despite lower production due to planned maintenance, as Viva successfully commissioned its Ultra Low Sulphur Gasoline plant ahead of new national fuel standards, while also strengthening its balance sheet by refinancing and upsizing its revolving credit facility to US$1.3 billion, maintaining compliance with debt covenants and liquidity headroom.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:VEA) stock is a Hold with a A$1.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Energy Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:VEA Stock Forecast page.

Viva Energy Names Sarah Ryan as Next Chair and Adds Alistair Bell in Board Renewal
Jan 18, 2026

Viva Energy has announced a major step in its board renewal program, with long‑serving Chair Robert Hill AC to retire on 1 March 2026 after a decade on the board, and current director Dr Sarah Ryan appointed Chair‑elect. Ryan, a former Woodside and OZ Minerals director with more than 30 years’ international energy industry and investment management experience, will lead the company as it builds on its transformation into a leading Australian convenience retailer and diversified energy provider, following the Coles Express and OTR Group acquisitions. The group has also appointed former Metcash and GrainCorp chief financial officer Alistair Bell as an independent non‑executive director from the same date, adding deep financial and risk expertise across retail, agribusiness and infrastructure. The changes come as Viva Energy underscores its position as one of only two large‑scale transport fuel manufacturers in Australia, highlights recent upgrades at its Geelong refinery and its growing role in low‑carbon and alternative fuels, including ultra‑low sulphur gasoline, hydrogen refuelling for heavy vehicles and chemical recycling of plastics, signalling continuity of strategy for shareholders and a strengthened governance platform for its next phase of growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:VEA) stock is a Hold with a A$1.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Energy Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:VEA Stock Forecast page.

L1 Capital Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Viva Energy
Jan 13, 2026

Viva Energy Group Limited has disclosed that investment firm L1 Capital Pty Ltd has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company, in accordance with Australian Corporations Act requirements. The notice, lodged via a Form 605 and signed by L1 Capital’s Head of Legal and Compliance, indicates that L1 Capital’s relevant interest in Viva Energy’s voting securities has fallen below the substantial holding threshold, signalling a reduction or exit of a major institutional investor that may marginally alter the company’s share register composition and institutional ownership profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:VEA) stock is a Hold with a A$2.13 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Energy Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:VEA Stock Forecast page.

L1 Capital Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Viva Energy
Jan 13, 2026

Viva Energy Group Limited has disclosed that investment firm L1 Capital Pty Ltd has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company, in accordance with Australian Corporations Act requirements. The notice, lodged via a Form 605 and signed by L1 Capital’s Head of Legal and Compliance, indicates that L1 Capital’s relevant interest in Viva Energy’s voting securities has fallen below the substantial holding threshold, signalling a reduction or exit of a major institutional investor that may marginally alter the company’s share register composition and institutional ownership profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:VEA) stock is a Hold with a A$2.13 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Energy Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:VEA Stock Forecast page.

Viva Energy Announces Director’s Interest Change
Nov 28, 2025

Viva Energy Group Ltd has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically regarding Scott Wyatt, who has been awarded 764,525 Performance Rights under the company’s Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) for 2025. This change, approved at the company’s Annual General Meeting, reflects the company’s commitment to aligning executive interests with long-term shareholder value, potentially impacting the company’s governance and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:VEA) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Energy Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:VEA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 25, 2026