Viva Energy Group Ltd. (VEA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$2.92B
• Dividend Yield: 3.21%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.95M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.04
• Revenue Growth: 8.16%
• EPS Growth: -311.36%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 15,201
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 1,625,652,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,886,009
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,951,103
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.14
• P/FCF Ratio: 237.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$2.42
• Price Target Upside: 34.34% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$2.00 ▲(11.11% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: solid revenue growth and positive free cash flow are outweighed by the latest-year net loss and increased leverage. Technicals add further downside pressure with the price below key moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation is only modestly supported by the dividend given the negative P/E.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth with improving gross margins indicates durable demand and improved cost management across refining, wholesale and retail. This underpins longer-term cash generation and capacity to invest in the business despite cyclical headwinds.

Positive Free Cash Flow

Positive free cash flow in 2024 provides financing flexibility to fund maintenance capex, support the retail network and potentially service debt or dividends. Reliable FCF supports operational continuity and strategic choices over multiple quarters.

Integrated Refining & Retail

Owning a major domestic refinery plus a large Shell-branded retail network gives vertical integration, margin capture across the value chain and strong brand recognition, supporting stable volumes and competitive positioning in Australia over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Net Loss in 2024

A negative net income in 2024 weakens retained earnings and reduces internal funding for capex or deleveraging. If sustained, losses can force strategic trade-offs, pressure dividends and restrict reinvestment in the refinery and retail network.

Rising Leverage

Higher leverage raises interest expense and refinancing risk, reducing financial flexibility. Increased debt relative to equity makes the company more vulnerable to fuel margin swings and operational disruptions, constraining long-term strategic optionality.

Weak Operating Cash Flow

Zero operating cash flow in 2024 signals operational cash conversion issues despite positive FCF historically. Persistent weak OCF undermines liquidity for working capital and capex, increasing reliance on external financing and elevating structural execution risk.

Viva Energy Group Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Viva Energy Group Limited operates as an energy company in Australia, Singapore, and Papua New Guinea. It operates through three segments: Retail, Fuels and Marketing; Refining; and Supply, Corporate and Overheads. The Retail, Fuels and Marketing segment supplies and markets fuel products through a network of approximately 1,330 retail service stations under Shell, Liberty, Westside Petroleum, and Viva Energy brands, as well as to other retail operators and wholesalers; supplies fuel, lubricants, and specialty hydrocarbon products to commercial customers in the aviation, marine, transport, resources, and construction and manufacturing industries. The Refining segment owns and operates a refinery in Geelong, Victoria; and offers specialty products, such as liquid petroleum gas, bitumen, oils, chemical products, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, as well as aviation gasoline for use in piston engine aircraft, and aromatic and aliphatic based solvent products. The Supply, Corporate and Overheads segment owns and manages an integrated supply chain of terminals, storage tanks, depots, pipelines, and distribution assets in Australia. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Docklands, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Viva Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of refined petroleum products, including petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel, to retail consumers and commercial clients. The company's revenue model includes several key streams: retail fuel sales from its service station network, wholesale fuel supply contracts with businesses, and the sale of lubricants and other related products. Additionally, Viva Energy benefits from its refining operations, which allow it to produce fuels domestically and capture value in the supply chain. Strategic partnerships with companies in the aviation and marine sectors further enhance its revenue potential. Factors contributing to the company's earnings include fluctuations in global oil prices, demand for fuel, and operational efficiency at its refinery.

Viva Energy Group Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue has grown steadily with improving gross margins, but 2024 net income turned negative and leverage rose sharply as debt increased and equity declined. Free cash flow remains positive, but overall profitability and balance-sheet pressure temper the financial outlook.

Income Statement

Viva Energy Group Ltd. has shown a consistent increase in total revenue from 2020 to 2024, with a notable recovery post-2020. However, the company experienced a negative net income in 2024, resulting in a negative net profit margin. Gross profit margin has improved over the years, indicating better cost management. The absence of EBIT in 2024 indicates operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased significantly from 2023 to 2024, indicating higher leverage and potential risk. However, it maintains a reasonable equity ratio. The decline in stockholders' equity and the increase in total debt suggest financial strain.

Cash Flow

Viva Energy's free cash flow has fluctuated over the years but remains positive in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is challenging to assess due to a zero operating cash flow in 2024. The positive free cash flow to net income ratio in previous years indicates operational efficiency despite recent setbacks.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	30.72B	29.99B	26.74B	26.43B	15.87B	12.38B
Gross Profit	2.20B	2.95B	1.34B	1.69B	1.04B	386.10M
EBITDA	395.90M	625.30M	562.40M	1.34B	923.00M	364.90M
Net Income	-351.70M	-76.30M	3.80M	514.30M	232.90M	-36.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.57B	12.13B	9.08B	9.31B	8.02B	7.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	236.30M	192.70M	215.50M	290.50M	96.70M	49.10M
Total Debt	5.79B	5.53B	3.00B	2.46B	2.67B	2.69B
Total Liabilities	10.90B	10.23B	7.07B	6.95B	5.91B	5.11B
Stockholders Equity	1.67B	1.90B	2.01B	2.36B	2.11B	2.06B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	14.20M	17.50M	181.60M	802.70M	342.00M	64.70M
Operating Cash Flow	662.40M	605.60M	674.30M	1.11B	528.00M	230.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-739.50M	-1.54B	-694.30M	-284.50M	-217.40M	526.50M
Financing Cash Flow	15.40M	909.10M	-55.00M	-628.10M	-263.00M	-826.90M

Viva Energy Group Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.80
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:VEA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.02, below the 50-day MA of 2.06, and below the 200-day MA of 1.97, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:VEA.

Viva Energy Group Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ORG	71 Outperform	AU$20.26B	13.69	15.06%	5.30%	6.48%	6.25%
WDS	71 Outperform	AU$48.18B	10.57	8.51%	7.16%	17.13%	61.35%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
STO	65 Neutral	AU$22.72B	14.36	6.59%	6.00%	-5.81%	-17.90%
ALD	61 Neutral	AU$6.87B	-49.80	-4.22%	1.40%	-15.39%	-119.57%
BPT	60 Neutral	AU$2.80B	-64.06	-1.02%	7.72%	17.16%	90.79%
VEA	55 Neutral	AU$2.92B	-8.20	-18.38%	3.21%	8.16%	-311.36%

Viva Energy Group Ltd. Corporate Events

Viva Energy Lifts Volumes and Margins as Geelong Refinery Upgrade and OTR Rollout Offset Convenience Headwinds

Viva Energy reported a modest 1.1% rise in total group sales volumes for the fourth quarter of 2025, with growth in Commercial & Industrial fuels, particularly aviation, offsetting weaker marine demand and disruptions in the Convenience & Mobility segment from store conversions and mandated divestments of Liberty sites. Convenience sales declined 11.4% year-on-year in the quarter, driven by a sharp 33.6% fall in tobacco sales amid ongoing illicit trade pressures, although tobacco volumes stabilised in the second half and overall convenience gross margin improved to 42.2%, supported by resilient non-tobacco categories and an expanding OTR-format network, where like-for-like ex-tobacco sales grew 1.9%. On the refining side, Geelong delivered a strong refining margin of US$12.1 per barrel despite lower production due to planned maintenance, as Viva successfully commissioned its Ultra Low Sulphur Gasoline plant ahead of new national fuel standards, while also strengthening its balance sheet by refinancing and upsizing its revolving credit facility to US$1.3 billion, maintaining compliance with debt covenants and liquidity headroom.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:VEA) stock is a Hold with a A$1.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Energy Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:VEA Stock Forecast page.

Viva Energy Names Sarah Ryan as Next Chair and Adds Alistair Bell in Board Renewal

Viva Energy has announced a major step in its board renewal program, with long‑serving Chair Robert Hill AC to retire on 1 March 2026 after a decade on the board, and current director Dr Sarah Ryan appointed Chair‑elect. Ryan, a former Woodside and OZ Minerals director with more than 30 years’ international energy industry and investment management experience, will lead the company as it builds on its transformation into a leading Australian convenience retailer and diversified energy provider, following the Coles Express and OTR Group acquisitions. The group has also appointed former Metcash and GrainCorp chief financial officer Alistair Bell as an independent non‑executive director from the same date, adding deep financial and risk expertise across retail, agribusiness and infrastructure. The changes come as Viva Energy underscores its position as one of only two large‑scale transport fuel manufacturers in Australia, highlights recent upgrades at its Geelong refinery and its growing role in low‑carbon and alternative fuels, including ultra‑low sulphur gasoline, hydrogen refuelling for heavy vehicles and chemical recycling of plastics, signalling continuity of strategy for shareholders and a strengthened governance platform for its next phase of growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:VEA) stock is a Hold with a A$1.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Energy Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:VEA Stock Forecast page.

L1 Capital Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Viva Energy

Viva Energy Group Limited has disclosed that investment firm L1 Capital Pty Ltd has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company, in accordance with Australian Corporations Act requirements. The notice, lodged via a Form 605 and signed by L1 Capital’s Head of Legal and Compliance, indicates that L1 Capital’s relevant interest in Viva Energy’s voting securities has fallen below the substantial holding threshold, signalling a reduction or exit of a major institutional investor that may marginally alter the company’s share register composition and institutional ownership profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:VEA) stock is a Hold with a A$2.13 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Energy Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:VEA Stock Forecast page.

L1 Capital Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Viva Energy

Viva Energy Group Limited has disclosed that investment firm L1 Capital Pty Ltd has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company, in accordance with Australian Corporations Act requirements. The notice, lodged via a Form 605 and signed by L1 Capital’s Head of Legal and Compliance, indicates that L1 Capital’s relevant interest in Viva Energy’s voting securities has fallen below the substantial holding threshold, signalling a reduction or exit of a major institutional investor that may marginally alter the company’s share register composition and institutional ownership profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:VEA) stock is a Hold with a A$2.13 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Energy Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:VEA Stock Forecast page.

Viva Energy Announces Director’s Interest Change

Viva Energy Group Ltd has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically regarding Scott Wyatt, who has been awarded 764,525 Performance Rights under the company’s Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP) for 2025. This change, approved at the company’s Annual General Meeting, reflects the company’s commitment to aligning executive interests with long-term shareholder value, potentially impacting the company’s governance and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:VEA) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Energy Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:VEA Stock Forecast page.

Viva Energy Director Increases Shareholding

Viva Energy Group Ltd. announced a change in the director’s interest as Sarah Ryan acquired an additional 10,000 ordinary shares, bringing her total to 129,667 shares. This on-market acquisition reflects a strategic move within the company’s leadership, potentially impacting investor confidence and stakeholder perceptions positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:VEA) stock is a Hold with a A$2.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Energy Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:VEA Stock Forecast page.

Viva Energy Director Increases Shareholding

Viva Energy Group Ltd has announced a change in the director’s interest, with Director Arnoud De Meyer acquiring 11,000 additional ordinary shares through an on-market trade, increasing his total shareholding to 196,943 shares. This transaction reflects a strategic move by the director, potentially indicating confidence in the company’s future performance and stability, which may influence stakeholder perceptions and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:VEA) stock is a Hold with a A$2.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viva Energy Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:VEA Stock Forecast page.