Ampol Limited (AU:ALD)
ASX:ALD
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Ampol Limited
(Sydney:ALD)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
AU$34.00
â–²(0.95% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is primarily held back by weakening financial performance (lower margins, weaker free cash flow, and higher leverage) and an expensive valuation (very high P/E). These are partially offset by a strong technical uptrend and a mostly positive earnings-call outlook (execution on cost reductions, retail initiatives, and leverage in range), though near-term CapEx, one-offs, and EG regulatory risk temper the upside.
Positive Factors
Convenience retail margins
Ampol's convenience retail segment shows durable, higher-margin returns with a five‑year EBIT CAGR of ~5.4% and shop gross margins near 40%. This diversifies earnings away from pure fuel price cycles, supports steadier cash flow and margin resilience across demand cycles, and underpins long-term site-level profitability.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation
Free cash flow has collapsed to roughly $0.07B after operating cash halved since 2023, substantially reducing internal funding for capex, dividends and deleveraging. Persistently weak cash conversion raises reliance on debt or asset sales and limits margin of safety against refining volatility or higher working capital needs over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Convenience retail margins
Ampol's convenience retail segment shows durable, higher-margin returns with a five‑year EBIT CAGR of ~5.4% and shop gross margins near 40%. This diversifies earnings away from pure fuel price cycles, supports steadier cash flow and margin resilience across demand cycles, and underpins long-term site-level profitability.
Read all positive factors
Ampol Limited (ALD) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$8.03B
Dividend Yield1.4%
Average Volume (3M)1.01M
Price to Earnings (P/E)92.3
Beta (1Y)0.35
Revenue Growth-15.39%
EPS Growth-119.57%
CountryAU
Employees3,152
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.04
Shares Outstanding238,302,100
10 Day Avg. Volume1,134,132
30 Day Avg. Volume1,008,957
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.94
Price to Book (P/B)2.51
Price to Sales (P/S)0.25
P/FCF Ratio109.17
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$35.82Price Target Upside6.35% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)2.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$33.94B
Ampol Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ampol Limited purchases, refines, distributes, and markets petroleum products in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and the United States. The company operates through Convenience Retail, and Fuels and Infrastructure segments. The Convenience Reta...
How the Company Makes Money
Ampol makes money primarily by selling petroleum fuels and related products through multiple channels. (1) Retail fuels: Ampol earns revenue from selling gasoline and diesel to motorists through its network of branded service stations. Earnings ar...
Ampol Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive operational and financial story: strong RCOP earnings growth, retail momentum (including successful U-GO rollouts), refinery turnaround at Lytton and returning leverage to target range enabled higher dividends and positioning for the EG acquisition. Notable negatives include sizeable one-off/adjusting items (inventory losses and a SEAOIL impairment), higher near-term CapEx and working capital demands, regulatory risk around EG and some volume weakness in wholesale/third-party channels. Overall the positives on earnings quality, margin improvement, deleveraging and clear execution plans materially outweigh the manageable lowlights and risks.Positive Updates
Strong Group Profit Growth (RCOP)
EBITDA of $1.44 billion (up 20% YoY), RCOP EBIT of $947 million (up 32% YoY) and RCOP NPAT excluding significant items of $429 million (up 83% YoY). Statutory NPAT was $82 million (impacted by inventory and significant items).
Negative Updates
Significant Items and Noncash Impairments
Significant items totaled $210 million after tax. A $90 million noncash impairment was recorded for the SEAOIL investment due to increased regional storage capacity and competition, and statutory NPAT was materially impacted by $136 million of inventory losses after tax (moving to historical cost accounting amid declining refined product prices).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Group Profit Growth (RCOP)
EBITDA of $1.44 billion (up 20% YoY), RCOP EBIT of $947 million (up 32% YoY) and RCOP NPAT excluding significant items of $429 million (up 83% YoY). Statutory NPAT was $82 million (impacted by inventory and significant items).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that 2026 net capital expenditure will be around $600 million (reflecting completion of the Lytton ultra‑low sulfur fuels project and a scheduled refinery turnaround) with ULSD commissioning targeted in Q2 2026; they will pursue a further $50 million of nominal cost reductions across 2026–27 (after delivering $50 million in 2025) and expect to offset the majority of inflation group‑wide and more than offset it at Lytton. Leverage is back in the target range at 2.3x adjusted net debt/EBITDA, positioning the company to progress the EG Australia acquisition (targeted mid‑2026, subject to ACCC approval) with identified synergies of $65–80 million, and U‑GO remains a key growth lever (>50% fuel volume uplift, average EBITDA uplift >$350,000 per converted site, ~1‑year payback, ~$280,000 CapEx per conversion, ~6‑month ramp). Management also expects Phase 1 of the FSSP review to be finalised in Q1 and reiterated a focus on disciplined capital allocation to drive cash generation and deleveraging.Ampol Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 31.00B | 34.85B | 37.75B | 38.25B | 20.88B |
| Gross Profit | 2.12B | 2.43B | 2.93B | 2.57B | 2.03B |
| EBITDA | 753.20M | 973.80M | 1.50B | 1.49B | 1.19B |
| Net Income | 82.40M | 122.50M | 549.10M | 795.90M | 560.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 12.70B | 12.87B | 12.81B | 13.33B | 8.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 57.90M | 123.90M | 300.60M | 126.00M | 566.30M |
| Total Debt | 5.28B | 4.08B | 3.69B | 3.61B | 2.26B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.25B | 9.29B | 8.84B | 9.28B | 5.51B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.04B | 3.16B | 3.56B | 3.63B | 3.07B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 69.70M | 229.40M | 972.50M | 541.40M | 310.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 752.30M | 915.00M | 1.51B | 948.30M | 634.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -610.90M | -688.50M | -535.60M | -1.63B | -313.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -204.80M | -405.10M | -779.90M | 266.50M | -126.90M |
Ampol Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
33.68
Price Trends
29.86
Positive
30.27
Positive
29.06
Positive
Market Momentum
1.22
Negative
65.89
Neutral
81.11
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ALD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.87, above the 50-day MA of 29.86, and above the 200-day MA of 29.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.11 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:ALD.
Ampol Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | AU$21.25B | 8.87 | 10.39% | 5.30% | 6.48% | 6.25% | |
72 Outperform | AU$66.56B | 10.61 | 7.67% | 7.16% | 17.13% | 61.35% | |
68 Neutral | AU$2.95B | 4.48 | -3.66% | 7.72% | 17.16% | 90.79% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | AU$25.79B | 15.76 | 5.26% | 6.00% | -5.81% | -17.90% | |
56 Neutral | AU$8.03B | 92.34 | 2.68% | 1.40% | -15.39% | -119.57% | |
47 Neutral | AU$4.21B | -7.78 | -27.20% | 3.21% | 8.16% | -311.36% |
* Energy Sector Average
AU:ALD
Ampol Limited
33.68
11.18
49.66%
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1.30
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12.38
2.07
20.02%
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Santos Limited
7.96
1.53
23.79%
AU:VEA
Viva Energy Group Ltd.
2.57
0.94
57.28%
AU:WDS
Woodside Energy Group
35.05
13.48
62.46%
Ampol Limited Corporate Events
Ampol Director Stephen Pearce Acquires First Indirect Stake in Company
Mar 26, 2026
Ampol director Stephen Pearce has increased his indirect stake in the company by acquiring 9,000 fully paid ordinary shares through an on-market trade. The purchase, executed via Bond Street Custodians Limited on 25 March 2026 for about $296,000, ...
Ampol Director Elizabeth Donaghey Increases Shareholding in On-Market Purchase
Mar 25, 2026
Ampol director Elizabeth Donaghey has increased her direct holding in the company, purchasing 3,900 fully paid ordinary shares in an on-market trade. The transaction, completed on 23 March 2026 for a total consideration of $131,822.99, lifts her d...
Ampol gains stronger fuel security support and defers Lytton outage to bolster supply
Mar 19, 2026
Ampol has welcomed changes to Australia’s Fuel Security Services Payment scheme, including a higher payment collar and a more favourable Government Margin Marker for its Lytton refinery, which are designed to support domestic refining when m...
Ampol Director Updates Holdings After Redemption of Subordinated Notes
Mar 9, 2026
Ampol Limited has disclosed a change in director Guy Templeton’s interests following the company’s redemption of a tranche of subordinated notes. Templeton, whose holdings are held indirectly via a custodian structure, no longer holds ...
Ampol advances ACCC review of EG Australia acquisition as competition concerns narrow
Mar 1, 2026
Ampol has provided an update on regulatory review of its proposed acquisition of EG Australia, following the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s publication of a Notice of Competition Concerns summary. Under the new mandatory me...
Ampol files 2025 corporate governance statement with ASX
Feb 22, 2026
Ampol Limited has released its 2025 Corporate Governance Statement, together with an accompanying Appendix 4G, to the market. The filing underlines the company’s ongoing adherence to governance standards expected of ASX-listed entities and p...
Ampol files 2025 Annual Report with ASX
Feb 22, 2026
Ampol Limited has lodged its 2025 Annual Report with the ASX, providing shareholders and the market with its detailed financial and operational performance for the year. The release, authorised by the board, formalises the company’s annual d...
Ampol Announces Interim Dividend of AUD 0.60 Per Share
Feb 22, 2026
Ampol Limited has declared an ordinary fully paid dividend of AUD 0.60 per share, relating to the six‑month period ended 31 December 2025. The ex‑dividend date is set for 6 March 2026, with a record date of 9 March 2026 and payment sch...
Ampol Releases 2025 Full-Year Results and Outlook Overview
Feb 22, 2026
Ampol Limited has released its results presentation for the full year ended 31 December 2025, outlining financial and operational highlights for the group. The document provides a high-level overview of the company’s performance and offers m...
Ampol profit mix shifts as underlying earnings surge despite revenue fall
Feb 22, 2026
Ampol Limited reported a 10.1% decline in revenue from ordinary activities to $31.37 billion for the year to 31 December 2025, while statutory profit after tax attributable to shareholders fell 32.7% to $82.4 million. However, on a replacement cos...
Ampol Lifts Refining Margins and Flags Strong 2025 Earnings
Jan 27, 2026
Ampol reported a sharp improvement in refining economics in the fourth quarter of 2025, with its Lytton Refiner Margin jumping to US$15.14 per barrel on the back of stronger middle distillate cracks and global refinery outages layered over tighter...
Ampol Faces Phase 2 ACCC Review of EG Australia Acquisition
Jan 20, 2026
Ampol has confirmed that the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission will move to a Phase 2 review of its proposed acquisition of EG Australia under the country’s new merger control regime, following preliminary indications that compe...
Ampol–EG Australia Deal Sent to Phase 2 Review Under New Merger Regime
Jan 20, 2026
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has escalated Ampol Retail Holding’s proposed acquisition of EG Group’s Australian operations to a Phase 2 review under the country’s new mandatory merger control regime, citing ...
Ampol Reports Lapse of 39,974 Performance Rights After Conditions Not Met
Jan 7, 2026
Ampol Limited has notified the market of the lapse of 39,974 performance rights, recorded as ALDAO securities on the ASX, effective 31 December 2025. The cessation results from the relevant vesting conditions not being met or no longer being capab...
Ampol Issues 10,020 New Shares Following Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Jan 7, 2026
Ampol Limited has issued 10,020 new fully paid ordinary shares following the conversion of previously unquoted options or other unquoted convertible securities, effective 31 December 2025. The modest increase in share capital reflects ongoing exec...
Ampol Issues New Unquoted Equity Rights Under Employee Incentive Schemes
Jan 7, 2026
Ampol Limited has notified the market of the issue of unquoted equity securities under its employee incentive schemes, comprising 6,723 performance rights and 62,653 share rights with an effective issue date of 31 December 2025. The allocation of ...
Ampol to Redeem A$500m Subordinated Notes in 2026 Using New Debt Issue
Dec 28, 2025
Ampol Limited has announced it will redeem in full its A$500 million subordinated, unsecured notes due 2080 on the first optional redemption date of 9 March 2026. The redemption will be funded with proceeds from a new subordinated notes issue comp...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.