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Ampol Limited (AU:ALD)
ASX:ALD

Ampol Limited (ALD) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:ALD

Ampol Limited

(Sydney:ALD)

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Neutral 46 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
AU$28.00
â–¼(-9.85% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
The score is driven mainly by weakening financial performance (declining revenue, thinner margins, higher leverage, and sharply lower free cash flow). Technicals add downside pressure (below key moving averages with negative MACD and weak RSI), and valuation is a further headwind due to an elevated P/E with only a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Diversified revenue streams
Ampol's mix of retail fuels, convenience retail, commercial/wholesale contracts and integrated logistics spreads revenue across channels and end markets. This structural diversification reduces concentration risk, supports cross-selling, and helps stabilize volumes and margins across commodity cycles.
Large national branded network
A national branded station network gives Ampol durable consumer presence and site-level economics. Brand recognition and convenience retailing create recurring footfall, enhance per-site gross margins, and raise barriers for new entrants, supporting long-term volume resilience.
Positive operating cash flow
Even after recent deterioration, positive operating cash flow indicates core operations still generate cash to fund working capital and near-term obligations. This core cash generation provides a foundation for servicing debt and sustaining essential capital expenditure in the medium term.
Negative Factors
Multi-year revenue decline
Three consecutive years of falling revenue point to structural demand or competitive pressures reducing scale. Persistent top-line contraction erodes operating leverage, limits reinvestment capacity, and weakens the company's ability to return to prior growth and profitability levels without strategic change.
Severely compressed margins
A net margin near zero materially reduces the firm's buffer against fuel price volatility and input cost shocks. Thin margins constrain retained earnings, depress returns on capital, and limit the ability to absorb cyclical downturns or invest in site upgrades and retail growth initiatives.
Higher leverage and weak free cash flow
Rising leverage together with an ~89% drop in free cash flow tightens financial flexibility. Higher debt loads increase interest and refinancing risk while low free cash flow constrains capacity to reduce debt, fund strategic investments, or maintain distributions without external financing.

Ampol Limited (ALD) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Ampol Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAmpol Limited (ALD) is a prominent Australian energy company primarily engaged in the refining and marketing of petroleum products. The company operates in several sectors, including retail, commercial fuels, and refining, with a significant presence across Australia. Ampol's core products and services include unleaded petrol, diesel, lubricants, and a network of service stations that provide convenience retailing and car wash services. Ampol is also involved in the distribution of fuel to various sectors, including aviation, marine, and mining, making it a key player in the Australian energy market.
How the Company Makes MoneyAmpol generates revenue predominantly through the sale of fuel and petroleum products across its extensive network of service stations and commercial clients. The company has multiple key revenue streams, including retail fuel sales, commercial fuel supply agreements, and refining operations. Retail fuel sales account for a significant portion of its income, driven by both volume and price fluctuations in the fuel market. Additionally, Ampol earns revenue from its convenience store offerings and various ancillary services at its service station locations. Strategic partnerships with suppliers and distribution channels also enhance its market presence and profitability. Factors such as global oil prices, domestic demand for fuel, and operational efficiencies within its refining processes contribute significantly to Ampol's overall earnings.

Ampol Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financial results have deteriorated from 2021–2023: revenue has declined for three consecutive years, margins compressed sharply (net margin ~0.3% in 2025), leverage increased (debt-to-equity ~1.74 in 2025), and free cash flow fell steeply to ~0.07B in 2025. The company remains profitable with positive operating cash flow, but weaker earnings power and reduced cash flexibility raise risk.
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Profitability has weakened materially versus the strong 2021–2023 period. Revenue has been declining in each of the last three years (2023–2025), and margins compressed sharply in 2024–2025 (net margin down to ~0.3% in 2025 from ~1.5% in 2023). While the company remained profitable in 2024–2025, earnings power appears more cyclical/volatile (including a loss in 2020), with 2025 showing notably lower operating profitability than prior years.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet is serviceable but has become more leveraged. Debt-to-equity rose to ~1.74 in 2025 from ~1.04 in 2023, while equity has been relatively stable—suggesting debt increased faster than the capital base. Returns on equity also declined meaningfully (down to ~2.7% in 2025 from mid-to-high teens in 2021–2023), indicating reduced efficiency in generating shareholder returns and less cushion if conditions soften.
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
Cash generation weakened significantly in the most recent year. Operating cash flow fell from ~1.5B (2023) to ~0.75B (2025), and free cash flow dropped sharply to ~0.07B in 2025 (down ~89% year over year), implying far less financial flexibility. While operating cash flow remains positive, free cash flow is low relative to earnings in 2024–2025, pointing to weaker cash conversion and higher cash demands.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue31.00B34.85B37.75B38.25B20.88B
Gross Profit2.12B2.43B2.93B2.57B2.03B
EBITDA753.20M973.80M1.50B1.49B1.19B
Net Income82.40M122.50M549.10M795.90M560.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets12.70B12.87B12.81B13.33B8.85B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments57.90M123.90M300.60M126.00M566.30M
Total Debt5.28B4.08B3.69B3.61B2.26B
Total Liabilities9.25B9.29B8.84B9.28B5.51B
Stockholders Equity3.04B3.16B3.56B3.63B3.07B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow69.70M229.40M972.50M541.40M310.40M
Operating Cash Flow752.30M915.00M1.51B948.30M634.60M
Investing Cash Flow-610.90M-688.50M-535.60M-1.63B-313.20M
Financing Cash Flow-204.80M-405.10M-779.90M266.50M-126.90M

Ampol Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price31.06
Price Trends
50DMA
29.81
Negative
100DMA
30.42
Negative
200DMA
28.91
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.18
Negative
RSI
53.61
Neutral
STOCH
70.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ALD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 31.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.90, above the 50-day MA of 29.81, and above the 200-day MA of 28.91, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:ALD.

Ampol Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
AU$20.58B8.8715.06%5.30%6.48%6.25%
70
Outperform
AU$57.88B10.618.51%7.16%17.13%61.35%
67
Neutral
AU$2.63B4.48-1.02%7.72%17.16%90.79%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
60
Neutral
AU$23.59B15.766.59%6.00%-5.81%-17.90%
46
Neutral
AU$7.04B92.34-4.22%1.40%-15.39%-119.57%
43
Neutral
AU$3.06B-7.78-18.38%3.21%8.16%-311.36%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:ALD
Ampol Limited
29.54
5.27
21.69%
AU:BPT
Beach Energy
1.15
-0.13
-10.41%
AU:ORG
Origin Energy Limited
11.83
1.98
20.13%
AU:STO
Santos Limited
7.25
1.40
23.97%
AU:VEA
Viva Energy Group Ltd.
1.85
0.23
13.92%
AU:WDS
Woodside Energy Group
30.75
8.46
37.95%

Ampol Limited Corporate Events

Ampol files 2025 corporate governance statement with ASX
Feb 22, 2026

Ampol Limited has released its 2025 Corporate Governance Statement, together with an accompanying Appendix 4G, to the market. The filing underlines the company’s ongoing adherence to governance standards expected of ASX-listed entities and provides investors with updated transparency on its governance framework.

The statement’s publication signals Ampol’s continued focus on structured oversight, board accountability and regulatory compliance. It also reinforces the company’s efforts to maintain strong investor confidence, aligning its governance practices with contemporary expectations around disclosure and corporate responsibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$36.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol files 2025 Annual Report with ASX
Feb 22, 2026

Ampol Limited has lodged its 2025 Annual Report with the ASX, providing shareholders and the market with its detailed financial and operational performance for the year. The release, authorised by the board, formalises the company’s annual disclosure process and offers investors comprehensive information to assess Ampol’s current position and outlook within the Australian energy and fuel market.

The publication of the 2025 Annual Report is a key step in Ampol’s governance and transparency obligations, supporting engagement with both institutional and retail investors. While the brief announcement contains no financial metrics, the full report is expected to inform stakeholder views on the company’s strategy, risk profile, and competitive stance in a changing fuels and energy landscape.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$36.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Announces Interim Dividend of AUD 0.60 Per Share
Feb 22, 2026

Ampol Limited has declared an ordinary fully paid dividend of AUD 0.60 per share, relating to the six‑month period ended 31 December 2025. The ex‑dividend date is set for 6 March 2026, with a record date of 9 March 2026 and payment scheduled for 2 April 2026.

The announcement underscores Ampol’s continued capital returns to shareholders and signals confidence in its recent financial performance. The timing and size of the dividend are likely to be closely watched by investors as an indicator of cash generation and balance‑sheet strength in a competitive fuel retailing market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$36.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Releases 2025 Full-Year Results and Outlook Overview
Feb 22, 2026

Ampol Limited has released its results presentation for the full year ended 31 December 2025, outlining financial and operational highlights for the group. The document provides a high-level overview of the company’s performance and offers management’s perspective on the outlook for 2026 and subsequent years, signalling key themes and expectations that will shape its near-term strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$36.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol profit mix shifts as underlying earnings surge despite revenue fall
Feb 22, 2026

Ampol Limited reported a 10.1% decline in revenue from ordinary activities to $31.37 billion for the year to 31 December 2025, while statutory profit after tax attributable to shareholders fell 32.7% to $82.4 million. However, on a replacement cost basis excluding significant items, profit surged 82.8% to $429.2 million, lifting return on equity on this measure to 12.4% and prompting the board to declare a fully franked final dividend of 60 cents per share despite the weaker statutory result.

The company’s net tangible asset backing per share edged up to $7.66 from $7.49, indicating a modest strengthening of the balance sheet. The contrasting trends between statutory earnings and replacement cost operating profit highlight the impact of oil price and inventory movements on headline results and underscore Ampol’s focus on underlying performance for assessing returns to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$36.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Lifts Refining Margins and Flags Strong 2025 Earnings
Jan 27, 2026

Ampol reported a sharp improvement in refining economics in the fourth quarter of 2025, with its Lytton Refiner Margin jumping to US$15.14 per barrel on the back of stronger middle distillate cracks and global refinery outages layered over tighter Russian sanctions, enabling the refinery to lift production by 1.0% to 1,558 million litres. For the 2025 financial year, the company expects unaudited Group RCOP EBITDA of about $1.435 billion and RCOP EBIT of roughly $945 million, underpinned by mid-single-digit EBIT growth in its Australian convenience retail arm, a resilient New Zealand result despite a weak economy, high single-digit EBIT growth from its F&I Australia operations despite lower wholesale volumes, and a modest profit from F&I International as it prioritised supply into the group’s Australian and New Zealand networks.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Faces Phase 2 ACCC Review of EG Australia Acquisition
Jan 20, 2026

Ampol has confirmed that the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission will move to a Phase 2 review of its proposed acquisition of EG Australia under the country’s new merger control regime, following preliminary indications that competition issues could arise. The extended, in‑depth assessment—expected to take up to 90 business days—introduces additional regulatory scrutiny but Ampol says it remains confident and still expects the transaction to complete around mid‑2026, a timeline that is important for its plans to expand its retail fuel footprint and competitive position in the Australian convenience and fuel market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol–EG Australia Deal Sent to Phase 2 Review Under New Merger Regime
Jan 20, 2026

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has escalated Ampol Retail Holding’s proposed acquisition of EG Group’s Australian operations to a Phase 2 review under the country’s new mandatory merger control regime, citing concerns that the deal could significantly reduce competition in fuel retailing. Regulators say combining the two large fuel retailers may substantially lessen competition at 115 EG sites and across metropolitan Brisbane, Canberra, Melbourne and Sydney, and have deemed Ampol’s offer to divest 19 sites insufficient, signaling potential delays, additional remedies or even possible blockage of the transaction with implications for fuel prices, market structure and investors watching the first major test of the new merger rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Reports Lapse of 39,974 Performance Rights After Conditions Not Met
Jan 7, 2026

Ampol Limited has notified the market of the lapse of 39,974 performance rights, recorded as ALDAO securities on the ASX, effective 31 December 2025. The cessation results from the relevant vesting conditions not being met or no longer being capable of being satisfied, slightly reducing the company’s potential future issued capital and signalling that specific performance hurdles tied to this equity incentive tranche were not achieved.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Issues 10,020 New Shares Following Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Jan 7, 2026

Ampol Limited has issued 10,020 new fully paid ordinary shares following the conversion of previously unquoted options or other unquoted convertible securities, effective 31 December 2025. The modest increase in share capital reflects ongoing execution of Ampol’s equity-based arrangements and slightly dilutes existing shareholders, while signalling continued utilisation of long-term incentive or conversion structures as part of its capital and remuneration framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Issues New Unquoted Equity Rights Under Employee Incentive Schemes
Jan 7, 2026

Ampol Limited has notified the market of the issue of unquoted equity securities under its employee incentive schemes, comprising 6,723 performance rights and 62,653 share rights with an effective issue date of 31 December 2025. The allocation of these rights, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, forms part of Ampol’s broader remuneration and incentive framework aimed at aligning employee and executive interests with long-term shareholder value, signalling ongoing use of equity-based incentives to support talent retention and performance across the business.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol to Redeem A$500m Subordinated Notes in 2026 Using New Debt Issue
Dec 28, 2025

Ampol Limited has announced it will redeem in full its A$500 million subordinated, unsecured notes due 2080 on the first optional redemption date of 9 March 2026. The redemption will be funded with proceeds from a new subordinated notes issue completed on 30 October 2025, effectively refinancing the existing hybrid-style debt and potentially optimising Ampol’s capital structure while maintaining access to long-term subordinated funding for its operations and growth plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Secures A$500m Flexible Subordinated Notes Facility to Back EG Australia Deal
Dec 19, 2025

Ampol Limited has closed a A$500 million wholesale delayed-draw subordinated notes facility, backed by existing hybrid investors and anchored by a cornerstone commitment from Apollo Global Management credit funds. The innovative structure gives Ampol access to fully committed, long-dated funding, with the flexibility to draw the notes in up to two A$250 million tranches through to 31 January 2027, supporting its proposed acquisition of EG Australia, potential future hybrid refinancing and broader corporate funding needs in line with its capital allocation framework, reinforcing its proactive approach to balance sheet management and investor relationships.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Launches A$500 Million Delayed-Draw Subordinated Notes Facility
Dec 11, 2025

Ampol Limited has announced a new A$500 million delayed-draw subordinated notes facility as part of its capital management strategy. This facility, which includes a unique delayed-draw feature, provides Ampol with long-term funding flexibility and is linked to its proposed acquisition of EG Australia and future refinancing initiatives. The facility is expected to strengthen Ampol’s financial position and enhance its strategic operations, with institutional investors showing strong interest.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Limited Prepares for US Investor Roadshow with Financial Highlights
Dec 9, 2025

Ampol Limited has released a presentation for its upcoming US Investor Roadshow, providing an overview of its financial and operational highlights for the eleven-month period ending November 2025. The presentation outlines the company’s expectations for the future, emphasizing the uncertainties and risks inherent in the industry. The release aims to inform stakeholders about Ampol’s current performance and future outlook, although it does not constitute investment advice.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 25, 2026