Ampol Limited (ALD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$7.56B
• Dividend Yield: 1.41%
• Average Volume (3M): 939.73K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.75
• Revenue Growth: -15.39%
• EPS Growth: -119.57%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 3,152
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 238,302,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,040,600
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 939,728
• PEG Ratio: -0.70
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.19
• P/FCF Ratio: 29.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$35.70
• Price Target Upside: 14.93% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.77
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$32.45B

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$34.00 ▲(9.47% Upside)

Ampol Limited's overall stock score reflects a challenging financial performance with declining revenue, margins, and cash flow, which are significant risks. However, technical analysis shows positive momentum, providing some optimism. The valuation is a concern with a negative P/E ratio, indicating potential financial instability. Investors should be cautious and consider the company's ability to improve profitability and cash flow.

Ampol Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ampol Limited (ALD) is a prominent Australian energy company primarily engaged in the refining and marketing of petroleum products. The company operates in several sectors, including retail, commercial fuels, and refining, with a significant presence across Australia. Ampol's core products and services include unleaded petrol, diesel, lubricants, and a network of service stations that provide convenience retailing and car wash services. Ampol is also involved in the distribution of fuel to various sectors, including aviation, marine, and mining, making it a key player in the Australian energy market.

How the Company Makes Money

Ampol generates revenue predominantly through the sale of fuel and petroleum products across its extensive network of service stations and commercial clients. The company has multiple key revenue streams, including retail fuel sales, commercial fuel supply agreements, and refining operations. Retail fuel sales account for a significant portion of its income, driven by both volume and price fluctuations in the fuel market. Additionally, Ampol earns revenue from its convenience store offerings and various ancillary services at its service station locations. Strategic partnerships with suppliers and distribution channels also enhance its market presence and profitability. Factors such as global oil prices, domestic demand for fuel, and operational efficiencies within its refining processes contribute significantly to Ampol's overall earnings.

Ampol Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ampol Limited's financial performance is mixed. The income statement shows declining revenue and margins, indicating profitability challenges. The balance sheet is stable but with high leverage, and cash flow issues are evident with a significant drop in free cash flow and absent operating cash flow.

Income Statement

Ampol Limited's income statement shows a declining revenue trend with a decrease from $37.7B in 2023 to $34.8B in 2024. The gross profit margin decreased from 7.8% in 2023 to 7.0% in 2024, and net profit margin also fell from 1.5% to 0.4%. There is a significant drop in EBIT margin to 0% in 2024. The company has experienced volatility in its profitability, which poses a risk to its stability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable yet high debt scenario with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.29 in 2024, compared to 1.04 in 2023. Return on equity dropped from 15.4% in 2023 to 3.9% in 2024, indicating reduced profitability on shareholder investment. The equity ratio slightly decreased from 27.8% in 2023 to 24.6% in 2024, showing moderate leverage but a solid equity base.

Cash Flow

Cash flows show a concerning trend with operating cash flow absent in 2024 and free cash flow declining significantly from $964.7M in 2023 to $229.4M in 2024. The lack of operating cash flow relative to net income highlights potential liquidity challenges, affecting the company's ability to self-fund operations and growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	31.93B	34.85B	37.75B	38.25B	20.88B	15.18B
Gross Profit	2.12B	2.43B	2.93B	2.57B	2.03B	975.10M
EBITDA	601.70M	973.80M	1.50B	1.49B	1.19B	-213.80M
Net Income	-138.00M	122.50M	549.10M	795.90M	560.00M	-484.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.21B	12.87B	12.81B	13.33B	8.85B	7.36B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	81.40M	123.90M	300.60M	126.00M	566.30M	367.60M
Total Debt	3.56B	4.08B	3.69B	3.61B	2.26B	1.72B
Total Liabilities	8.68B	9.29B	8.84B	9.28B	5.51B	4.14B
Stockholders Equity	3.12B	3.16B	3.56B	3.63B	3.07B	2.95B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	632.90M	229.40M	972.50M	541.40M	310.40M	41.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.35B	915.00M	1.51B	948.30M	634.60M	267.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-693.70M	-688.50M	-535.60M	-1.63B	-313.20M	462.60M
Financing Cash Flow	-627.70M	-405.10M	-779.90M	266.50M	-126.90M	-391.80M

Ampol Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 31.06
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ALD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 31.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.39, above the 50-day MA of 30.79, and above the 200-day MA of 27.15, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:ALD.

Ampol Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ORG	71 Outperform	$19.86B	13.42	15.06%	5.22%	6.48%	6.25%
WDS	71 Outperform	AU$48.52B	10.58	8.51%	6.75%	17.13%	61.35%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
STO	65 Neutral	$20.77B	13.13	6.59%	5.82%	-5.81%	-17.90%
ALD	61 Neutral	AU$7.56B	―	-4.22%	1.41%	-15.39%	-119.57%
VEA	61 Neutral	€2.94B	-8.24	-18.38%	3.09%	8.16%	-311.36%
BPT	60 Neutral	$2.65B	―	-1.02%	7.79%	17.16%	90.79%

Ampol Limited Corporate Events

Ampol Limited Updates Director’s Interest Notice Amid Oversight

Ampol Limited announced a change in the director’s interest notice for Guy Templeton, highlighting an administrative oversight in previous disclosures. The company assured that it has appropriate procedures in place to ensure compliance with disclosure requirements, which is crucial for maintaining transparency and trust with stakeholders.

Ampol Limited Reports Strong Q3 2025 Performance Amid Global Refinery Challenges

Ampol Limited reported a strong third quarter in 2025, with the Lytton Refiner Margin improving significantly due to strengthened Singapore refined product cracks and global refinery outages. The company’s group earnings exceeded the first half quarterly average, although sales volumes were impacted by planned maintenance and external factors. The convenience retail sector showed resilience despite weather-related challenges, and Ampol is progressing with its acquisition of EG Australia. However, delays in refinery upgrades for ultra-low sulfur gasoline may incur additional costs.

Ampol Prices A$500 Million in Subordinated Notes to Strengthen Capital Management

Ampol Limited has successfully priced A$500 million of subordinated notes due in 2055 to wholesale investors in the domestic fixed income market. The proceeds will be used to repay debt and for general corporate purposes, aligning with Ampol’s Capital Allocation Framework. This move is part of Ampol’s ongoing capital management strategy, aiming to refinance existing notes callable in March 2026. The transaction attracted significant demand from investors across Australia, New Zealand, and Asia, enhancing Ampol’s financial flexibility and supporting its credit rating.

Ampol Limited Announces Director’s Share Acquisition

Ampol Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, with Helen Nash acquiring 2,484 fully paid ordinary shares through an on-market trade valued at $74,942.07. This change reflects a strategic move in the company’s governance, potentially impacting its market perception and stakeholder confidence.