Ampol Limited (AU:ALD)
ASX:ALD
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Ampol Limited
(Sydney:ALD)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
AU$38.00
▲(15.40% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:03/26/26
The score is primarily held back by weakening financial performance (lower margins, weaker free cash flow, and higher leverage) and an expensive valuation (very high P/E). These are partially offset by a strong technical uptrend and a mostly positive earnings-call outlook (execution on cost reductions, retail initiatives, and leverage in range), though near-term CapEx, one-offs, and EG regulatory risk temper the upside.
Positive Factors
U‑GO Conversion Economics
U-GO conversions are a scalable, capital-efficient growth lever that materially boost fuel volumes and site EBITDA with ~1-year payback. Durable because converted sites show sustained volume uplift and fast payback, improving network profitability and cash returns over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Weak Free Cash Flow
Severely weakened free cash flow materially constrains internal funding for capex, deleveraging and dividends. With FCF collapsed year-over-year, Ampol must rely more on asset sales or debt to finance growth and acquisitions, raising structural funding and execution risk over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
U‑GO Conversion Economics
U-GO conversions are a scalable, capital-efficient growth lever that materially boost fuel volumes and site EBITDA with ~1-year payback. Durable because converted sites show sustained volume uplift and fast payback, improving network profitability and cash returns over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Ampol Limited (ALD) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$7.95B
Dividend Yield1.4%
Average Volume (3M)1.01M
Price to Earnings (P/E)95.4
Beta (1Y)0.21
Revenue Growth-10.26%
EPS Growth-32.72%
CountryAU
Employees3,152
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.34
Shares Outstanding238,302,100
10 Day Avg. Volume1,134,132
30 Day Avg. Volume1,008,957
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.94
Price to Book (P/B)2.51
Price to Sales (P/S)0.25
P/FCF Ratio109.17
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$38.93Price Target Upside18.23% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)3.91
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$33.23B
Ampol Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ampol Limited, founded in 1900 and based in Alexandria, Australia, is a major player in the petroleum industry, engaging in the procurement, refining, distribution, and sale of petroleum products. Its operations span Australia, New Zealand, Singap...
How the Company Makes Money
Ampol makes money primarily by selling refined and imported fuels and related products through a mix of retail and wholesale channels. Retail earnings come from selling fuel at Ampol-branded service stations, where gross profit is driven by fuel v...
Ampol Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive operational and financial story: strong RCOP earnings growth, retail momentum (including successful U-GO rollouts), refinery turnaround at Lytton and returning leverage to target range enabled higher dividends and positioning for the EG acquisition. Notable negatives include sizeable one-off/adjusting items (inventory losses and a SEAOIL impairment), higher near-term CapEx and working capital demands, regulatory risk around EG and some volume weakness in wholesale/third-party channels. Overall the positives on earnings quality, margin improvement, deleveraging and clear execution plans materially outweigh the manageable lowlights and risks.Positive Updates
Strong Group Profit Growth (RCOP)
EBITDA of $1.44 billion (up 20% YoY), RCOP EBIT of $947 million (up 32% YoY) and RCOP NPAT excluding significant items of $429 million (up 83% YoY). Statutory NPAT was $82 million (impacted by inventory and significant items).
Negative Updates
Significant Items and Noncash Impairments
Significant items totaled $210 million after tax. A $90 million noncash impairment was recorded for the SEAOIL investment due to increased regional storage capacity and competition, and statutory NPAT was materially impacted by $136 million of inventory losses after tax (moving to historical cost accounting amid declining refined product prices).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Group Profit Growth (RCOP)
EBITDA of $1.44 billion (up 20% YoY), RCOP EBIT of $947 million (up 32% YoY) and RCOP NPAT excluding significant items of $429 million (up 83% YoY). Statutory NPAT was $82 million (impacted by inventory and significant items).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that 2026 net capital expenditure will be around $600 million (reflecting completion of the Lytton ultra‑low sulfur fuels project and a scheduled refinery turnaround) with ULSD commissioning targeted in Q2 2026; they will pursue a further $50 million of nominal cost reductions across 2026–27 (after delivering $50 million in 2025) and expect to offset the majority of inflation group‑wide and more than offset it at Lytton. Leverage is back in the target range at 2.3x adjusted net debt/EBITDA, positioning the company to progress the EG Australia acquisition (targeted mid‑2026, subject to ACCC approval) with identified synergies of $65–80 million, and U‑GO remains a key growth lever (>50% fuel volume uplift, average EBITDA uplift >$350,000 per converted site, ~1‑year payback, ~$280,000 CapEx per conversion, ~6‑month ramp). Management also expects Phase 1 of the FSSP review to be finalised in Q1 and reiterated a focus on disciplined capital allocation to drive cash generation and deleveraging.Ampol Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 31.00B | 34.85B | 37.75B | 38.25B | 20.88B |
| Gross Profit | 2.12B | 2.43B | 2.93B | 2.57B | 2.03B |
| EBITDA | 753.20M | 973.80M | 1.50B | 1.49B | 1.19B |
| Net Income | 82.40M | 122.50M | 549.10M | 795.90M | 560.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 12.70B | 12.87B | 12.81B | 13.33B | 8.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 57.90M | 123.90M | 300.60M | 126.00M | 566.30M |
| Total Debt | 4.21B | 4.08B | 3.69B | 3.61B | 2.26B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.25B | 9.29B | 8.84B | 9.28B | 5.51B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.04B | 3.16B | 3.56B | 3.63B | 3.07B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 69.70M | 229.40M | 972.50M | 541.40M | 310.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 752.30M | 915.00M | 1.51B | 948.30M | 634.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -610.90M | -688.50M | -535.60M | -1.63B | -313.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -204.80M | -405.10M | -779.90M | 266.50M | -126.90M |
Ampol Limited Technical Analysis
Neutral
32.93
Price Trends
34.35
Negative
32.28
Positive
31.22
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.12
Positive
39.19
Neutral
15.81
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ALD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 32.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.66, below the 50-day MA of 34.35, and above the 200-day MA of 31.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.81 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:ALD.
Ampol Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | AU$54.35B | 13.73 | 7.67% | 7.16% | -5.14% | -22.20% | |
68 Neutral | AU$2.26B | -19.32 | -3.66% | 7.72% | 11.40% | -225.74% | |
67 Neutral | AU$6.23B | 18.83 | 6.25% | 3.98% | -1.73% | -8.10% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | AU$23.75B | 20.02 | 5.26% | 6.00% | -5.72% | -31.55% | |
56 Neutral | AU$7.95B | 95.41 | 2.68% | 1.40% | -10.26% | -32.72% | |
47 Neutral | AU$3.52B | -8.32 | -27.20% | 3.21% | -5.35% | -449.16% |
* Energy Sector Average
AU:ALD
Ampol Limited
33.16
8.24
33.04%
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Ampol Limited Corporate Events
Ampol Issues 203,386 Unquoted Performance Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Jun 5, 2026
Ampol Limited has notified the market of the issue of 203,386 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, effective 1 June 2026. The new securities, which will not be quoted on the ASX, form part of the company’s ongoing...
Ampol Scraps Planned Share Issue, Opts for Cash Settlement
Jun 2, 2026
Ampol Limited has notified the ASX that it is cancelling a previously announced proposed issue of securities linked to a placement or other form of capital issuance. The company has chosen to exercise its option to cash settle the scrip component ...
ACCC Clears Ampol’s $1.1bn Cash Acquisition of EG Australia
Jun 2, 2026
Ampol has secured Australian Competition and Consumer Commission approval for its acquisition of EG Australia, subject to a court-enforceable undertaking to divest 41 sites, which will be sold to Metro Petroleum. The deal, now expected to complete...
ACCC Clears Ampol’s EG Australia Takeover With Forced Site Sell-Off
Jun 2, 2026
Australia’s competition regulator has cleared Ampol’s acquisition of EG Australia, a major fuel and convenience retailer, on the condition that Ampol divests 41 fuel retail sites to an approved buyer. The move consolidates Ampol’...
Ampol outlines 2025 performance and outlook at Macquarie Australia Conference
May 4, 2026
Ampol Limited has released a presentation for investors at the Macquarie Australia Conference, outlining its financial and operational highlights for the year ended 31 December 2025. The document also provides a high-level overview of the company&...
Ampol Ups Site Divestments in Final Remedy Offer for EG Australia Deal
Apr 22, 2026
Ampol has submitted a final remedy offer to the Australian Competition Consumer Commission for its proposed acquisition of EG Australia, increasing the number of fuel retail sites it is prepared to divest from 37 to 41. The additional divestments...
Ampol Posts Strong Q1 as Middle East Conflict Underscores Strategic Value of Lytton Refinery
Apr 21, 2026
Ampol reported a strong and broad-based performance in the first quarter of 2026, with the Lytton Refiner Margin surging to US$25.45 per barrel and refinery output rising 10% to 1,434 million litres, aided in part by the absence of prior-year weat...
Ampol boosts CEO Matthew Halliday’s stake through deferred incentive shares
Apr 15, 2026
Ampol Limited has disclosed a change in managing director Matthew Halliday’s interests in the company’s securities, with an increase in his holding of restricted shares. Halliday was granted 26,813 additional restricted shares at no ca...
Ampol CEO Restructures Equity Holdings Through Family Trust Transfer
Apr 9, 2026
Ampol has disclosed changes to Managing Director and CEO Matthew Halliday’s interests in the company’s securities, detailing a significant transfer of fully paid ordinary shares to a family trust and adjustments to his performance-base...
Ampol Issues 10,259 New Ordinary Shares After Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Apr 9, 2026
Ampol Limited has notified the market of the conversion of unquoted securities into 10,259 ordinary fully paid shares. The issuance, effective 1 April 2026, reflects the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted options or other convertible in...
Ampol Issues 7,613 Unquoted Share Rights Under Equity Scheme
Apr 9, 2026
Ampol Limited has notified the market of the issue or conversion of 7,613 unquoted share rights, recorded under the ASX security code ALDAA, with an effective issue date of 1 April 2026. The move reflects routine equity administration under the co...
Ampol trims potential equity dilution as incentive rights lapse
Apr 9, 2026
Ampol Limited has notified the market of the cessation of certain equity-based incentives, with more than 509,000 performance rights and share rights lapsing after their vesting conditions were not met by 1 April 2026. The move trims the company&#...
Ampol Ups Site Divestments in Bid to Ease ACCC Concerns Over EG Australia Deal
Apr 8, 2026
Ampol has revised its proposed remedy to secure Australian Competition and Consumer Commission clearance for its planned acquisition of EG Australia, a large fuel and convenience network. The company now proposes to divest 37 sites, an increase of...
Ampol issues 2026 AGM notice and proxy materials
Apr 8, 2026
Ampol Limited has released its Notice of Annual General Meeting and Proxy Form for shareholders ahead of its 2026 AGM. The publication of these documents initiates the formal shareholder engagement process for the year, setting out the agenda and ...
Australian Retirement Trust Cuts Ampol Stake Below Substantial Holder Threshold
Apr 1, 2026
Australian Retirement Trust Pty Ltd, acting as trustee for the Australian Retirement Trust, has notified Ampol Limited that it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 30 March 2026. The change, lodged under Australia’...
Ampol Director Stephen Pearce Acquires First Indirect Stake in Company
Mar 26, 2026
Ampol director Stephen Pearce has increased his indirect stake in the company by acquiring 9,000 fully paid ordinary shares through an on-market trade. The purchase, executed via Bond Street Custodians Limited on 25 March 2026 for about $296,000, ...
Ampol Director Elizabeth Donaghey Increases Shareholding in On-Market Purchase
Mar 25, 2026
Ampol director Elizabeth Donaghey has increased her direct holding in the company, purchasing 3,900 fully paid ordinary shares in an on-market trade. The transaction, completed on 23 March 2026 for a total consideration of $131,822.99, lifts her d...
Ampol gains stronger fuel security support and defers Lytton outage to bolster supply
Mar 19, 2026
Ampol has welcomed changes to Australia’s Fuel Security Services Payment scheme, including a higher payment collar and a more favourable Government Margin Marker for its Lytton refinery, which are designed to support domestic refining when m...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.