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Ampol Limited (AU:ALD)
ASX:ALD
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Ampol Limited (ALD) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:ALD

Ampol Limited

(Sydney:ALD)

Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
AU$31.00
▲(5.26% Upside)
Ampol Limited's overall stock score reflects a mixed outlook. Financial performance is challenged by declining profitability and cash flow issues. Technical analysis shows bullish momentum, but the stock may be overbought. The high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, tempered slightly by a moderate dividend yield.

Ampol Limited (ALD) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Ampol Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAmpol Limited (ALD) is an Australian energy company primarily engaged in the supply of fuel and lubricant products. The company operates a network of retail service stations across Australia and New Zealand, offering fuel, convenience store items, and automotive services. Ampol also has a presence in the refining, distribution, and marketing sectors, providing a range of petroleum products to various industries.
How the Company Makes MoneyAmpol Limited generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of fuel across its extensive network of retail service stations. This includes both petrol and diesel sales to individual consumers and commercial clients. Additionally, the company earns money from its convenience store operations, which offer food, beverages, and other retail products. Ampol's refining operations also contribute to its revenue, as the company processes crude oil into refined petroleum products. Furthermore, Ampol engages in business-to-business sales of lubricants and other specialty products to industrial clients. Strategic partnerships and supply agreements with major corporations and governments enhance its revenue potential, while its logistics and distribution capabilities ensure efficient supply chain management.

Ampol Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ampol Limited's financial performance is mixed, with declining revenues and margins, and significant challenges in cash flow generation. The balance sheet shows stability, but high leverage and decreased profitability indicate potential risks.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Ampol Limited's income statement shows a declining revenue trend with a decrease from $37.7B in 2023 to $34.8B in 2024. The gross profit margin decreased from 7.8% in 2023 to 7.0% in 2024, and net profit margin also fell from 1.5% to 0.4%. There is a significant drop in EBIT margin to 0% in 2024. The company has experienced volatility in its profitability, which poses a risk to its stability.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable yet high debt scenario with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.29 in 2024, compared to 1.04 in 2023. Return on equity dropped from 15.4% in 2023 to 3.9% in 2024, indicating reduced profitability on shareholder investment. The equity ratio slightly decreased from 27.8% in 2023 to 24.6% in 2024, showing moderate leverage but a solid equity base.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Cash flows show a concerning trend with operating cash flow absent in 2024 and free cash flow declining significantly from $964.7M in 2023 to $229.4M in 2024. The lack of operating cash flow relative to net income highlights potential liquidity challenges, affecting the company's ability to self-fund operations and growth.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue34.85B37.75B38.25B21.42B15.18B
Gross Profit2.43B2.93B2.57B2.03B1.21B
EBITDA973.80M1.42B1.49B1.19B-213.80M
Net Income122.50M549.10M795.90M560.00M-484.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets12.87B12.81B13.33B8.85B7.36B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments123.90M300.60M126.00M566.30M367.60M
Total Debt4.08B3.69B3.61B2.26B1.72B
Total Liabilities9.29B8.84B9.28B5.51B4.14B
Stockholders Equity3.16B3.56B3.63B3.07B2.95B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow229.40M964.70M541.40M310.40M41.00M
Operating Cash Flow893.50M1.50B948.30M634.60M267.60M
Investing Cash Flow-688.50M-535.60M-1.46B-313.20M462.60M
Financing Cash Flow-405.10M-779.90M91.90M-126.90M-391.80M

Ampol Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price29.45
Price Trends
50DMA
26.99
Positive
100DMA
25.68
Positive
200DMA
26.52
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.80
Negative
RSI
67.38
Neutral
STOCH
85.50
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ALD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.14, above the 50-day MA of 26.99, and above the 200-day MA of 26.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.80 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.50 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:ALD.

Ampol Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
$15.25B7.273.02%5.36%4.27%-62.52%
64
Neutral
$7.04B56.70-4.22%2.20%-15.39%-119.57%
$1.89B27.16-1.02%3.61%
$14.40B14.7615.06%4.70%
$16.78B17.356.59%2.80%
€1.89B22.86-18.38%
76
Outperform
AU$51.27B11.198.51%6.15%17.13%61.35%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:ALD
Ampol Limited
29.45
0.05
0.18%
BEPTF
Beach Energy
0.82
-0.01
-1.20%
OGFGF
Origin Energy Limited
8.42
2.04
31.97%
STOSF
Santos Limited
5.50
0.71
14.82%
DE:2AH
Viva Energy Group Ltd.
1.14
-0.52
-31.33%
AU:WDS
Woodside Energy Group
27.08
1.94
7.72%

Ampol Limited Corporate Events

Ampol Limited Announces Proposed Securities Issue
Aug 14, 2025

Ampol Limited has announced a proposed issue of up to 9,184,727 ordinary fully paid securities, with the issuance date set for June 30, 2026. This move is part of a placement or other type of issue, potentially impacting the company’s capital structure and market positioning, while also offering new investment opportunities for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$31.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Limited Announces Strategic Acquisition of EG Group Australia
Aug 14, 2025

Ampol Limited has announced its proposed acquisition of EG Group Australia, a move that could significantly impact its market positioning by expanding its retail footprint. This strategic acquisition is expected to enhance Ampol’s operational capabilities and strengthen its competitive edge in the Australian fuel retail market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$31.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol to Acquire EG Australia in $1.1 Billion Deal
Aug 14, 2025

Ampol Limited has announced a Share Purchase Agreement to acquire EG Australia for $1.1 billion, aiming to expand its retail network by approximately 500 sites. This acquisition is expected to accelerate Ampol’s growth strategy, enhance its convenience retail offerings, and deliver significant financial synergies. The transaction, subject to ACCC approval, will be funded through a mix of debt and Ampol shares, with the company maintaining its investment-grade credit rating. The integration is projected to increase earnings from convenience retail and marketing activities, supporting Ampol’s strategic goals and benefiting stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$31.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Limited Initiates Trading Halt Ahead of Major Acquisition Announcement
Aug 14, 2025

Ampol Limited has requested a trading halt on its securities pending an announcement about a potential material acquisition transaction. This move is intended to prevent trading based on incomplete information, with the halt expected to last until the announcement is made or normal trading resumes on 18 August 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$31.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Limited to Announce Half-Year 2025 Financial Results
Aug 11, 2025

Ampol Limited has announced that it will release its financial results for the first half of 2025 on August 18, 2025. The announcement will be accompanied by a briefing led by the company’s Managing Director and CEO, Matt Halliday, and Group CFO, Greg Barnes, via a webcast and conference call. This event is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial health and strategic direction for the remainder of the year.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$31.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Limited Reports Strong Earnings Growth in H1 2025
Jul 22, 2025

Ampol Limited reported an unaudited Group Replacement Cost Operating Profit (RCOP) EBITDA of approximately $640 million and RCOP EBIT of approximately $400 million for the first half of 2025. The company’s earnings were bolstered by growth in Convenience Retail and New Zealand segments, despite a slight decline in overall sales volume. The Lytton Refiner Margin showed improvement in the second quarter, contributing to a profitable quarter for the refinery. Ampol’s focus on premium fuels and a diversified market approach in New Zealand helped mitigate supply chain impacts, maintaining its strong market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$31.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Limited Announces Cessation of Performance Rights
Jul 10, 2025

Ampol Limited has announced the cessation of 21,595 performance rights, as the conditions for these securities were not met by the end of June 2025. This development may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, reflecting on the company’s operational adjustments and strategic planning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$31.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Limited Issues Unquoted Equity Securities to Boost Employee Incentives
Jul 10, 2025

Ampol Limited has announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities, including 700,596 performance rights and 8,239 share rights under an employee incentive scheme. This move is part of Ampol’s strategy to motivate and retain key employees, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and market positioning positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Hold with a A$34.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Magellan Financial Group Ceases Substantial Holding in Ampol Limited
Jun 25, 2025

Ampol Limited has announced that Magellan Financial Group Ltd and its related bodies corporate have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of June 23, 2025. This change in substantial holding may impact Ampol’s shareholder structure and influence in the market, potentially affecting its strategic decisions and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$31.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Limited Announces Director’s Change in Interest
Jun 10, 2025

Ampol Limited has announced a change in the interest of its director, Matthew William Halliday, who has acquired 92,458 performance rights under the 2025 Long Term Incentive Award through the Ampol Equity Incentive Plan. This change reflects Ampol’s ongoing commitment to aligning its leadership’s interests with long-term company performance, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$31.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 16, 2025