tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Ampol Limited (AU:ALD)
ASX:ALD

Ampol Limited (ALD) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
145 Followers

Top Page

AU:ALD

Ampol Limited

(Sydney:ALD)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Neutral 61 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
AU$34.00
â–²(9.47% Upside)
Ampol Limited's overall stock score reflects a challenging financial performance with declining revenue, margins, and cash flow, which are significant risks. However, technical analysis shows positive momentum, providing some optimism. The valuation is a concern with a negative P/E ratio, indicating potential financial instability. Investors should be cautious and consider the company's ability to improve profitability and cash flow.

Ampol Limited (ALD) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Ampol Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAmpol Limited (ALD) is a prominent Australian energy company primarily engaged in the refining and marketing of petroleum products. The company operates in several sectors, including retail, commercial fuels, and refining, with a significant presence across Australia. Ampol's core products and services include unleaded petrol, diesel, lubricants, and a network of service stations that provide convenience retailing and car wash services. Ampol is also involved in the distribution of fuel to various sectors, including aviation, marine, and mining, making it a key player in the Australian energy market.
How the Company Makes MoneyAmpol generates revenue predominantly through the sale of fuel and petroleum products across its extensive network of service stations and commercial clients. The company has multiple key revenue streams, including retail fuel sales, commercial fuel supply agreements, and refining operations. Retail fuel sales account for a significant portion of its income, driven by both volume and price fluctuations in the fuel market. Additionally, Ampol earns revenue from its convenience store offerings and various ancillary services at its service station locations. Strategic partnerships with suppliers and distribution channels also enhance its market presence and profitability. Factors such as global oil prices, domestic demand for fuel, and operational efficiencies within its refining processes contribute significantly to Ampol's overall earnings.

Ampol Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ampol Limited's financial performance is mixed. The income statement shows declining revenue and margins, with a significant drop in EBIT margin to 0% in 2024. The balance sheet is stable but indicates high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.29. Cash flow is concerning, with a significant decline in free cash flow and absent operating cash flow in 2024, highlighting potential liquidity challenges.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Ampol Limited's income statement shows a declining revenue trend with a decrease from $37.7B in 2023 to $34.8B in 2024. The gross profit margin decreased from 7.8% in 2023 to 7.0% in 2024, and net profit margin also fell from 1.5% to 0.4%. There is a significant drop in EBIT margin to 0% in 2024. The company has experienced volatility in its profitability, which poses a risk to its stability.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable yet high debt scenario with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.29 in 2024, compared to 1.04 in 2023. Return on equity dropped from 15.4% in 2023 to 3.9% in 2024, indicating reduced profitability on shareholder investment. The equity ratio slightly decreased from 27.8% in 2023 to 24.6% in 2024, showing moderate leverage but a solid equity base.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Cash flows show a concerning trend with operating cash flow absent in 2024 and free cash flow declining significantly from $964.7M in 2023 to $229.4M in 2024. The lack of operating cash flow relative to net income highlights potential liquidity challenges, affecting the company's ability to self-fund operations and growth.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue31.93B34.85B37.75B38.25B20.88B15.18B
Gross Profit2.12B2.43B2.93B2.57B2.03B975.10M
EBITDA601.70M973.80M1.50B1.49B1.19B-213.80M
Net Income-138.00M122.50M549.10M795.90M560.00M-484.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets12.21B12.87B12.81B13.33B8.85B7.36B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments81.40M123.90M300.60M126.00M566.30M367.60M
Total Debt3.56B4.08B3.69B3.61B2.26B1.72B
Total Liabilities8.68B9.29B8.84B9.28B5.51B4.14B
Stockholders Equity3.12B3.16B3.56B3.63B3.07B2.95B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow632.90M229.40M972.50M541.40M310.40M41.00M
Operating Cash Flow1.35B915.00M1.51B948.30M634.60M267.60M
Investing Cash Flow-693.70M-688.50M-535.60M-1.63B-313.20M462.60M
Financing Cash Flow-627.70M-405.10M-779.90M266.50M-126.90M-391.80M

Ampol Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price31.06
Price Trends
50DMA
31.10
Negative
100DMA
30.70
Negative
200DMA
28.35
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.58
Positive
RSI
36.63
Neutral
STOCH
26.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ALD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 31.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.12, below the 50-day MA of 31.10, and above the 200-day MA of 28.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:ALD.

Ampol Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$20.26B13.6915.06%5.30%6.48%6.25%
71
Outperform
AU$48.18B10.578.51%7.16%17.13%61.35%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
65
Neutral
$22.72B14.366.59%6.00%-5.81%-17.90%
61
Neutral
AU$6.87B-49.80-4.22%1.40%-15.39%-119.57%
60
Neutral
AU$2.80B-64.06-1.02%7.72%17.16%90.79%
55
Neutral
AU$2.92B-8.20-18.38%3.21%8.16%-311.36%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:ALD
Ampol Limited
28.84
0.13
0.44%
AU:BPT
Beach Energy
1.23
-0.18
-12.58%
AU:ORG
Origin Energy Limited
11.80
2.05
21.08%
AU:STO
Santos Limited
7.01
0.31
4.61%
AU:VEA
Viva Energy Group Ltd.
1.80
-0.65
-26.47%
AU:WDS
Woodside Energy Group
25.37
2.37
10.30%

Ampol Limited Corporate Events

Ampol Reports Lapse of 39,974 Performance Rights After Conditions Not Met
Jan 7, 2026

Ampol Limited has notified the market of the lapse of 39,974 performance rights, recorded as ALDAO securities on the ASX, effective 31 December 2025. The cessation results from the relevant vesting conditions not being met or no longer being capable of being satisfied, slightly reducing the company’s potential future issued capital and signalling that specific performance hurdles tied to this equity incentive tranche were not achieved.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Issues 10,020 New Shares Following Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Jan 7, 2026

Ampol Limited has issued 10,020 new fully paid ordinary shares following the conversion of previously unquoted options or other unquoted convertible securities, effective 31 December 2025. The modest increase in share capital reflects ongoing execution of Ampol’s equity-based arrangements and slightly dilutes existing shareholders, while signalling continued utilisation of long-term incentive or conversion structures as part of its capital and remuneration framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Issues New Unquoted Equity Rights Under Employee Incentive Schemes
Jan 7, 2026

Ampol Limited has notified the market of the issue of unquoted equity securities under its employee incentive schemes, comprising 6,723 performance rights and 62,653 share rights with an effective issue date of 31 December 2025. The allocation of these rights, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, forms part of Ampol’s broader remuneration and incentive framework aimed at aligning employee and executive interests with long-term shareholder value, signalling ongoing use of equity-based incentives to support talent retention and performance across the business.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol to Redeem A$500m Subordinated Notes in 2026 Using New Debt Issue
Dec 28, 2025

Ampol Limited has announced it will redeem in full its A$500 million subordinated, unsecured notes due 2080 on the first optional redemption date of 9 March 2026. The redemption will be funded with proceeds from a new subordinated notes issue completed on 30 October 2025, effectively refinancing the existing hybrid-style debt and potentially optimising Ampol’s capital structure while maintaining access to long-term subordinated funding for its operations and growth plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Secures A$500m Flexible Subordinated Notes Facility to Back EG Australia Deal
Dec 19, 2025

Ampol Limited has closed a A$500 million wholesale delayed-draw subordinated notes facility, backed by existing hybrid investors and anchored by a cornerstone commitment from Apollo Global Management credit funds. The innovative structure gives Ampol access to fully committed, long-dated funding, with the flexibility to draw the notes in up to two A$250 million tranches through to 31 January 2027, supporting its proposed acquisition of EG Australia, potential future hybrid refinancing and broader corporate funding needs in line with its capital allocation framework, reinforcing its proactive approach to balance sheet management and investor relationships.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Launches A$500 Million Delayed-Draw Subordinated Notes Facility
Dec 11, 2025

Ampol Limited has announced a new A$500 million delayed-draw subordinated notes facility as part of its capital management strategy. This facility, which includes a unique delayed-draw feature, provides Ampol with long-term funding flexibility and is linked to its proposed acquisition of EG Australia and future refinancing initiatives. The facility is expected to strengthen Ampol’s financial position and enhance its strategic operations, with institutional investors showing strong interest.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Limited Prepares for US Investor Roadshow with Financial Highlights
Dec 9, 2025

Ampol Limited has released a presentation for its upcoming US Investor Roadshow, providing an overview of its financial and operational highlights for the eleven-month period ending November 2025. The presentation outlines the company’s expectations for the future, emphasizing the uncertainties and risks inherent in the industry. The release aims to inform stakeholders about Ampol’s current performance and future outlook, although it does not constitute investment advice.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Limited Updates Director’s Interest Notice Amid Oversight
Nov 20, 2025

Ampol Limited announced a change in the director’s interest notice for Guy Templeton, highlighting an administrative oversight in previous disclosures. The company assured that it has appropriate procedures in place to ensure compliance with disclosure requirements, which is crucial for maintaining transparency and trust with stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Hold with a A$34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Limited Reports Strong Q3 2025 Performance Amid Global Refinery Challenges
Oct 29, 2025

Ampol Limited reported a strong third quarter in 2025, with the Lytton Refiner Margin improving significantly due to strengthened Singapore refined product cracks and global refinery outages. The company’s group earnings exceeded the first half quarterly average, although sales volumes were impacted by planned maintenance and external factors. The convenience retail sector showed resilience despite weather-related challenges, and Ampol is progressing with its acquisition of EG Australia. However, delays in refinery upgrades for ultra-low sulfur gasoline may incur additional costs.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Ampol Prices A$500 Million in Subordinated Notes to Strengthen Capital Management
Oct 23, 2025

Ampol Limited has successfully priced A$500 million of subordinated notes due in 2055 to wholesale investors in the domestic fixed income market. The proceeds will be used to repay debt and for general corporate purposes, aligning with Ampol’s Capital Allocation Framework. This move is part of Ampol’s ongoing capital management strategy, aiming to refinance existing notes callable in March 2026. The transaction attracted significant demand from investors across Australia, New Zealand, and Asia, enhancing Ampol’s financial flexibility and supporting its credit rating.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALD) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ampol Limited stock, see the AU:ALD Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 18, 2025