Santos Limited (AU:STO)
ASX:STO
Top Page
Santos Limited
(Sydney:STO)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
AU$8.00
â–²(0.50% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening financial trajectory (declining revenues, softer returns, and pressured free cash flow). Offsetting this are supportive technical momentum (price above major moving averages, positive MACD) and a constructive earnings-call outlook emphasizing low costs, strong liquidity, and a pathway to stronger free cash flow as major projects ramp, with valuation and yield adding moderate support.
Positive Factors
Low unit production costs
Record-low unit costs (~$6.78/boe) create a durable competitive advantage by lowering Santos’s operational breakeven and improving margin resilience across commodity cycles. This structural cost base improves cash generation per barrel and reduces FCF sensitivity as new projects scale.
Negative Factors
Multi-year revenue decline
A sustained revenue downcycle, including a ~24% fall in 2025, weakens underlying earnings power and reduces retained cash for reinvestment. Persistent top‑line contraction can compress long‑term margins, limit growth funding, and make dividends and capex more vulnerable unless trends reverse.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low unit production costs
Record-low unit costs (~$6.78/boe) create a durable competitive advantage by lowering Santos’s operational breakeven and improving margin resilience across commodity cycles. This structural cost base improves cash generation per barrel and reduces FCF sensitivity as new projects scale.
Read all positive factors
Santos Limited (STO) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$25.79B
Dividend Yield6%
Average Volume (3M)9.42M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.8
Beta (1Y)0.43
Revenue Growth-5.81%
EPS Growth-17.90%
CountryAU
Employees3,958
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.17
Shares Outstanding3,247,773,000
10 Day Avg. Volume10,558,329
30 Day Avg. Volume9,424,773
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.50
Price to Book (P/B)0.85
Price to Sales (P/S)2.54
P/FCF Ratio20.76
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$7.55Price Target Upside-5.19% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.51
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$6.68B
Santos Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Santos Limited explores for, develops, produces, transports, and markets hydrocarbons for homes and businesses in Australia and the Asia Pacific. Its five principal assets are located in the Cooper Basin, Queensland and NSW, Papua New Guinea, Nort...
How the Company Makes Money
Santos makes money primarily by producing and selling hydrocarbons (natural gas, LNG, crude oil and condensate, and other associated liquids) from its operated and non-operated upstream assets. Revenue is generated through (1) LNG sales, where nat...
Santos Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized substantial operational and financial strengths: record-low unit costs, strong cash generation, robust liquidity, successful delivery of Barossa and other execution highlights, and progress across CCS and growth portfolios. Challenges cited were primarily near-term and operational (Barossa commissioning issues, regional inflation-driven project cost pressure, Cooper Basin flood impacts) and appraisal/longer-term development risks (Beetaloo economics). Management presented clear mitigation actions, conservative guidance (all-in breakeven target of $45–$50/boe), and a pathway to stronger free cash flow sensitivity once Barossa and Pikka reach plateau, indicating the positives meaningfully outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Strong cash generation and profitability
Free cash flow from operations of $1.8 billion, EBITDAX of $3.4 billion and underlying profit after tax of $898 million; product sales revenue over $4.9 billion and gross profit margin of 33.7%.
Negative Updates
Lower commodity prices and impact on earnings
Underlying profit is lower than prior year, attributed to lower commodity prices and a higher effective income tax rate; management noted lower realized prices contributed to reduced earnings.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong cash generation and profitability
Free cash flow from operations of $1.8 billion, EBITDAX of $3.4 billion and underlying profit after tax of $898 million; product sales revenue over $4.9 billion and gross profit margin of 33.7%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance and targets emphasized strong 2025 delivery and conservative forward planning: 2025 free cash flow from operations was $1.8bn, EBITDAX $3.4bn and underlying profit ~$898m, with gearing at 26.9% (21.5% excl. leases), liquidity ≈$4.3bn and no debt maturities in 2026; unit production cost hit a decade-low of $6.78/boe, 2025 free‑cash‑flow breakeven was $27.43/bbl (all‑in $58.90/bbl) and Santos is targeting all‑in breakeven of $45–50/bbl and < $7/boe opex going forward; production was 87.7 mmboe in 2025 with a near‑term ambition of 100–120 mmboe and Barossa+Pikka expected to lift production ~25% by 2027; the Board declared a final dividend of $0.0103/share (48% of H2 FCF) and total dividends $0.0237/share (43% of FCF), the company targets an annual savings run‑rate of $150m (≈$50m achieved in 2025), FCF sensitivity rising from ~$400m to $550–600m per $10 Brent once Barossa/Pikka are ramped, a 10% headcount reduction from 2024 levels in 2026, and a 15–25% gearing range with a policy to return at least 60% of cash in excess of all‑in breakeven to shareholders.Santos Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.26B | 5.40B | 5.89B | 7.79B | 4.71B |
| Gross Profit | 1.62B | 3.70B | 2.22B | 5.64B | 1.59B |
| EBITDA | 3.46B | 3.67B | 3.97B | 4.97B | 2.65B |
| Net Income | 846.53M | 1.22B | 1.42B | 2.11B | 658.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 32.05B | 29.63B | 29.76B | 28.86B | 31.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.72B | 1.86B | 2.28B | 2.46B | 2.97B |
| Total Debt | 8.75B | 6.69B | 6.16B | 5.52B | 8.02B |
| Total Liabilities | 16.37B | 14.10B | 14.48B | 14.01B | 17.45B |
| Stockholders Equity | 15.68B | 15.54B | 15.28B | 14.84B | 13.57B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 642.66M | 449.00M | 889.00M | 2.15B | 1.07B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.65B | 2.85B | 3.26B | 3.86B | 2.14B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.99B | -2.69B | -2.90B | -1.67B | -137.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -818.58M | -206.00M | -860.00M | -3.40B | -481.00M |
Santos Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
7.96
Price Trends
7.08
Positive
6.64
Positive
6.87
Positive
Market Momentum
0.27
Positive
64.11
Neutral
68.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:STO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.70, above the 50-day MA of 7.08, and above the 200-day MA of 6.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:STO.
Santos Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | AU$66.56B | 10.61 | 7.67% | 7.16% | 17.13% | 61.35% | |
71 Outperform | AU$1.47B | 3.37 | 15.02% | 4.74% | -17.02% | -35.47% | |
68 Neutral | AU$2.95B | 4.48 | -3.66% | 7.72% | 17.16% | 90.79% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | AU$25.79B | 15.76 | 5.26% | 6.00% | -5.81% | -17.90% | |
48 Neutral | AU$377.94M | -7.29 | -46.22% | ― | 59.48% | -1714.71% | |
48 Neutral | AU$1.64B | -30.28 | -21.66% | ― | ― | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
AU:STO
Santos Limited
7.96
1.53
23.79%
AU:BPT
Beach Energy
1.30
-0.06
-4.36%
AU:KAR
Karoon Energy Ltd
2.06
0.50
32.39%
AU:STX
Strike Energy Limited
0.11
-0.06
-36.36%
AU:TBN
Tamboran Resources Limited
0.31
0.13
72.22%
AU:WDS
Woodside Energy Group
35.05
13.48
62.46%
Santos Limited Corporate Events
Santos Sets April 2026 AGM to Vote on Director Re-elections and CEO Equity Grant
Mar 13, 2026
Santos has called its 2026 Annual General Meeting for 16 April in Adelaide, giving shareholders the option to attend in person at the Adelaide Convention Centre or watch via a non-interactive webcast. The company is also encouraging proxy voting a...
Santos Dropped From S&P/ASX 20 in March Index Rebalance
Mar 6, 2026
SP Dow Jones Indices will remove Santos Limited from the blue-chip SP/ASX 20 Index at the March 2026 quarterly rebalance, replacing it with Northern Star Resources, signalling a relative decline in Santos’s index standing against other large...
Santos CEO Kevin Gallagher Rebalances Shareholding with Large On-Market Sale
Mar 6, 2026
Santos Limited has disclosed a change in the holdings of managing director and CEO Kevin Gallagher, who executed an on-market sale of 830,132 fully paid ordinary shares on 27 February 2026 at an average price of A$6.754433 per share. The company s...
Santos Director Vanessa Guthrie Increases Indirect Shareholding
Mar 2, 2026
Santos Limited has disclosed a change in director Vanessa Ann Guthrie’s indirect interests in the company’s securities, reflecting an increase in her shareholding via family trust and superannuation structures. Through Xenolith Holding...
Santos Updates FX Details for 2025 Final Dividend
Mar 2, 2026
Santos Limited, the Australian-listed energy producer, has confirmed details for its 2025 final dividend on its ordinary fully paid shares. The distribution relates to the six-month period ending 31 December 2025, with an ex-dividend date of 23 Fe...
Santos Director Increases Shareholding Through On-Market Purchase
Feb 25, 2026
Santos Limited has reported a change in the equity holdings of director Musje Moses Werror, who increased his direct interest in the company through an on-market purchase. The transaction reflects a modest uplift in the director’s stake and ...
Santos Updates CEO Kevin Gallagher’s Equity Interests After Incentive Vesting
Feb 25, 2026
Santos has disclosed changes in the equity interests of Managing Director and CEO Kevin Gallagher, reflecting the vesting and allocation of shares under the company’s long-term incentive and growth projects incentive plans. The transactions,...
Santos Share Acquisition Rights Lapse, Trimming Potential Equity Dilution
Feb 25, 2026
Santos Limited has reported the cessation of 2,627,603 share acquisition rights, which lapsed after the conditions attached to these rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The lapse reduces potential future dilution from these...
Santos Issues 3.34 Million New Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Feb 25, 2026
Santos Limited has notified the market of the issue of 3,340,794 new ordinary fully paid shares following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted equity securities. The shares, issued on 2 January 2026, expand the company’s listed ...
Santos Reports Lapse of Share Acquisition Rights Under Sharematch Plan
Feb 25, 2026
Santos Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 9,911 share acquisition rights under its Sharematch plan, following the lapse of conditional rights that could not be satisfied. The change slightly reduces the pool of potential equity-li...
Santos Issues New Shares Following Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Feb 25, 2026
Santos Limited has notified the market of the issue of 13,212 ordinary fully paid shares, following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted securities. The new shares, which were issued on 15 January 2026, reflect the conversion of unquo...
Santos Director Yasmin Allen Steps Down, Final Interests Disclosed
Feb 24, 2026
Santos Limited has announced that non-executive director Yasmin Anita Allen ceased to be a director of the company on 21 February 2026. The filing indicates that Allen holds no shares directly in Santos, but has an indirect interest in 48,883 full...
Santos seals 10-year gas deal to power Whyalla green iron transformation
Feb 20, 2026
Santos has signed a binding term sheet with the South Australian government to supply 200 petajoules of gas over 10 years from 2030, supporting the Whyalla Steelworks’ transition to a low‑emissions green iron facility. The 20PJ‑p...
Santos lifts reserves and CO2 storage as 2025 guidance outlines stable earnings base
Feb 10, 2026
Santos Limited has reported proved plus probable reserves of 1,484 million barrels of oil equivalent at the end of 2025, a 13 mmboe increase before production driven mainly by the Cooper Basin and PNG. The company’s 2P reserves life stands a...
Santos Ships First LNG Cargo from Barossa Project, Boosting Northern Territory Economy
Jan 27, 2026
Santos has loaded and shipped the first liquefied natural gas cargo from its Barossa LNG project, with the Kool Blizzard departing Darwin LNG for delivery to Japan’s Sakai terminal, marking a key operational milestone for the offshore develo...
Santos Delivers Strong Cash Flow as Barossa LNG and Pikka Projects Near Key Milestones
Jan 21, 2026
Santos reported a strong fourth quarter and full-year 2025 performance, with free cash flow from operations of about $380 million in the quarter and roughly $1.8 billion for the year, supported by higher production, increased sales volumes and ove...
Santos Reports Lapse of 119,962 Share Acquisition Rights
Jan 14, 2026
Santos Limited has reported the cessation of 119,962 share acquisition rights (ASX code STOAY) after the conditions attached to these rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied, with the lapse effective from 2 October 2025. The lap...
Santos Issues 5,825 Unquoted Share Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Jan 14, 2026
Santos Limited has notified the market of the issue of 5,825 unquoted share acquisition rights under its employee incentive scheme, with an issue date of 19 November 2025. The new securities, which will not be quoted on the ASX, reflect the compan...
Santos Issues Over 1 Million New Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Jan 14, 2026
Santos Limited has notified the market of the issue of 1,042,669 ordinary fully paid shares on 6 October 2025 following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted options or other unquoted convertible securities. The move modestly increases...
Santos Reports Lapse of Share Acquisition Rights Under Sharematch Plan
Jan 14, 2026
Santos Limited has notified the ASX of the cessation of 16,267 share acquisition rights under its Sharematch plan, recorded as having lapsed on 1 October 2025 because the performance or vesting conditions were not, or could no longer be, satisfied...
Santos Issues 589,372 New Shares Following Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Jan 14, 2026
Santos Limited has notified the market of the issue of 589,372 fully paid ordinary shares following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted securities. The new STO shares, dated 6 October 2025, formalise the movement of unquoted options ...
Santos CEO Kevin Gallagher Receives Unrestricted Shares from Deferred Incentive Plan
Jan 6, 2026
Santos Limited has reported a change in the indirect interests of its Managing Director and CEO, Kevin Gallagher, following the release of previously restricted shares awarded under the company’s short-term incentive plan. On 1 January 2026,...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.