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Santos Limited (AU:STO)
ASX:STO

Santos Limited (STO) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:STO

Santos Limited

(Sydney:STO)

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Neutral 60 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
AU$7.00
▼(-3.45% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening financial trajectory (revenue downcycle, softer returns, higher leverage, and pressured free cash flow). Technicals are mixed with limited momentum despite a positive MACD. Valuation is supported by a moderate P/E and strong dividend yield, while the latest earnings call was constructive with solid execution and forward production growth targets, tempered by near-term operational disruptions and a one-off impairment.
Positive Factors
Contracted LNG portfolio
A highly contracted LNG portfolio (92%) with substantial oil linkage provides durable, predictable cash flows and price exposure aligned to long-cycle benchmarks. This reduces short-term spot volatility impact, supports long-term cash margins and underwriting of capital projects and dividends.
Project execution and production growth
Clear progress on major projects and guidance for ~30% production growth by 2027 indicate strong execution capability. Successful delivery de-risks growth capex, supports reserve replacement and scalable volume-driven revenue improvement across the medium term.
Operating profitability and cash generation quality
Robust operating profitability and material EBITDAX demonstrate the business can generate healthy operating cash. Consistent operating margins support sustained internal funding for maintenance, development and emissions projects, underpinning resilient operating economics.
Negative Factors
Multi-year revenue contraction
A persistent revenue downcycle erodes scale benefits and pressures long-run earnings power. If volumes or pricing do not normalize, margin leverage and reinvestment capacity will be constrained, making it harder to sustain dividends and fund growth without higher leverage or asset sales.
Rising leverage and compressed returns
Increased leverage alongside a sharp drop in ROE signals weakening capital efficiency and reduced financial flexibility. Higher net debt levels raise refinancing and interest-rate risk and limit the firm's ability to pursue opportunistic investments or absorb commodity shocks over the medium term.
Weak free cash flow conversion
Low FCF conversion after investments constrains capacity to deleverage, reinvest or sustain shareholder distributions. Persistent weak FCF growth reduces optionality on capital allocation and increases reliance on external financing to fund project pipeline and contingencies.

Santos Limited (STO) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Santos Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSantos Limited explores for, develops, produces, transports, and markets hydrocarbons for homes and businesses in Australia and the Asia Pacific. Its five principal assets are located in the Cooper Basin, Queensland and NSW, Papua New Guinea, Northern Australia and Timor-Leste, and Western Australia. The company also holds an asset in Alaska; and engages in the development of carbon capture and storage technologies. In addition, it produces natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, ethane, methane, coal seam gas, liquefied natural gas, shale gas, and condensate, as well as oil. The company's proved plus probable reserves include 1676 million barrels of oil equivalent. Santos Limited was incorporated in 1954 and is headquartered in Adelaide, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneySantos Limited generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of oil and natural gas. The company earns money by extracting hydrocarbons from its various projects, which are then sold to domestic and international markets. Key revenue streams include crude oil sales, natural gas sales, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Additionally, Santos benefits from long-term contracts with major customers, which provide a stable income base. The company has significant partnerships and joint ventures with other energy firms, enhancing its operational capacity and market reach. Factors contributing to its earnings include global oil and gas prices, production efficiency, and strategic asset management.

Santos Limited Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 24, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong financial and operational performance for Santos in the first half of 2025, with significant achievements in safety, project execution, and LNG portfolio management. However, there are challenges such as flood impacts on production and impairments in the PNG business. Overall, the positive highlights outweigh the lowlights.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Sales revenue of $2.6 billion generated EBITDAX of $1.8 billion. Free cash flow from operations was $1.1 billion, with a profit after tax of $439 million.
Safety and Operational Efficiency
A 46% improvement in the total recordable injury rate compared to the first half of 2024, with process safety performance also improving.
Successful Project Execution
Barossa remains on schedule with production expected shortly. The Darwin LNG plant is ready for start-up, and the Alaska project has brought first oil guidance forward to the first quarter of 2026.
Strong LNG Portfolio Performance
92% of the LNG portfolio is contracted, and around 80% is oil linked between 2025 and 2029, with strong release prices supporting cash margins.
CCS Progress
Moomba CCS Phase 1 has safely and permanently stored more than 1 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, improving Santos emissions intensity by 22%.
Negative Updates
Flood Impact on Production
Production in the Cooper Basin was impacted by floods, leading to a reduction in top-end production guidance for the full year to 95 million barrels of oil equivalent.
Exploration and Evaluation Impairment
A one-off nonrecurring exploration and evaluation impairment of $119 million against the PNG business due to the Hides footwall prospect being unsuccessful.
Company Guidance
In the first half of 2025, Santos Limited reported robust financial and operational performance, with sales revenue reaching $2.6 billion and generating an EBITDAX of $1.8 billion. The company's free cash flow from operations was $1.1 billion, and profit after tax stood at $439 million. Santos achieved a production volume of 44.1 million barrels of oil equivalent, maintaining a gearing ratio within the target range at 23.7%, including operating leases. The interim dividend was declared at USD 13.4 per share, with a 10% franking rate. The company's safety metrics improved significantly, with a 46% reduction in the total recordable injury rate compared to the first half of 2024. Additionally, the company reported a notable 22% improvement in emissions intensity since the startup of the Moomba CCS project. Santos is progressing well with major projects, such as Barossa and Pikka, and anticipates a 30% production increase by 2027. The company is also advancing its strategic priorities, including the Narrabri Gas Project and Papua LNG, with a focus on maintaining low-cost operations and sustainable growth.

Santos Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Still profitable with solid margins and operating cash flow quality, but multi-year revenue contraction, lower returns on equity, rising leverage versus prior years, and pressured/free cash flow conversion in 2025 reduce the score.
Income Statement
63
Positive
Profitability remains solid, with 2025 showing healthy margins (about 31% gross margin and 16% net margin) and strong operating profitability (EBIT margin ~27%). However, the top line has been shrinking for several years, including a ~24% revenue decline in 2025 after additional declines in 2023–2024, and net income has stepped down materially from the 2022 peak. Overall: good profitability profile, but weakening earnings power due to a clear revenue downcycle.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet is reasonably supported by equity (2025 debt-to-equity ~0.56), but leverage has risen versus 2022–2024 and total debt increased meaningfully in 2025. Returns on equity have also compressed (about 5% in 2025 vs. ~14% in 2022), reflecting softer profitability. Overall: adequate capitalization, but a less favorable leverage and return trend recently.
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
Operating cash flow covers accounting earnings (about 1.36x in 2025), which is a positive sign of earnings quality. The weak spot is cash generation after investment: free cash flow is relatively low versus net income in 2025 (roughly 24%), and free cash flow growth is sharply negative in 2025, indicating higher reinvestment and/or weaker underlying cash conversion. Overall: solid operating cash flow, but inconsistent and pressured free cash flow.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.26B5.40B5.89B7.79B4.71B
Gross Profit1.62B3.70B2.22B5.64B1.59B
EBITDA3.46B3.67B3.97B4.97B2.65B
Net Income846.53M1.22B1.42B2.11B658.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets32.05B29.63B29.76B28.86B31.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.72B1.86B2.28B2.46B2.97B
Total Debt8.75B6.69B6.16B5.52B8.02B
Total Liabilities16.37B14.10B14.48B14.01B17.45B
Stockholders Equity15.68B15.54B15.28B14.84B13.57B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow642.66M449.00M889.00M2.15B1.07B
Operating Cash Flow2.65B2.85B3.26B3.86B2.14B
Investing Cash Flow-1.99B-2.69B-2.90B-1.67B-137.00M
Financing Cash Flow-818.58M-206.00M-860.00M-3.40B-481.00M

Santos Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price7.25
Price Trends
50DMA
6.42
Positive
100DMA
6.36
Positive
200DMA
6.74
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.18
Negative
RSI
70.78
Negative
STOCH
82.73
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:STO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.80, above the 50-day MA of 6.42, and above the 200-day MA of 6.74, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.78 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.73 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:STO.

Santos Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
AU$57.88B10.618.51%7.16%17.13%61.35%
67
Neutral
AU$1.30B3.3713.85%4.74%-17.02%-35.47%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
60
Neutral
AU$23.59B15.766.59%6.00%-5.81%-17.90%
60
Neutral
AU$2.63B4.48-1.02%7.72%17.16%90.79%
52
Neutral
AU$993.03M-30.28-14.41%
45
Neutral
AU$359.94M-7.29-42.02%59.48%-1714.71%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:STO
Santos Limited
7.25
1.40
23.97%
AU:BPT
Beach Energy
1.15
-0.13
-10.41%
AU:KAR
Karoon Energy Ltd
1.82
0.30
19.89%
AU:STX
Strike Energy Limited
0.10
-0.07
-42.86%
AU:TBN
Tamboran Resources Limited
0.21
0.03
16.67%
AU:WDS
Woodside Energy Group
30.75
8.46
37.95%

Santos Limited Corporate Events

Santos lifts reserves and CO2 storage as 2025 guidance outlines stable earnings base
Feb 10, 2026

Santos Limited has reported proved plus probable reserves of 1,484 million barrels of oil equivalent at the end of 2025, a 13 mmboe increase before production driven mainly by the Cooper Basin and PNG. The company’s 2P reserves life stands at 17 years, with 83 per cent gas, 17 per cent liquids, and 40 per cent of 2P reserves held in international assets.

Developed reserves now account for 62 per cent of total 2P volumes, while contingent resources fell to 3,212 mmboe after divesting interests in the Petrel and Tern fields. Santos also expanded its carbon capture position, with 2P CO2 storage capacity of 8 million tonnes after injecting 1 million tonnes, and boosting 2C contingent storage resources in the Cooper Basin to 202 million tonnes.

Management highlighted strong organic 1P reserves replacement and growing CO2 storage resources as key supports for its decarbonisation strategy and the commercial expansion of the Moomba CCS project. Additional unaudited guidance for 2025 flagged about $4.94 billion in product sales revenue, cost of sales of roughly $3.25–3.3 billion, and an effective tax rate of about 31 per cent, alongside impairments, higher other expenses and a small loss from joint ventures.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:STO) stock is a Sell with a A$6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Santos Limited stock, see the AU:STO Stock Forecast page.

Santos Ships First LNG Cargo from Barossa Project, Boosting Northern Territory Economy
Jan 27, 2026

Santos has loaded and shipped the first liquefied natural gas cargo from its Barossa LNG project, with the Kool Blizzard departing Darwin LNG for delivery to Japan’s Sakai terminal, marking a key operational milestone for the offshore development. Delivered within roughly six months of the planned start date and on its original budget, the project underscores Santos’ execution capabilities and is expected to underpin economic growth in Australia’s Northern Territory through long-term employment, local contracts valued at an estimated A$2.5 billion, and an industry-leading Barossa Aboriginal Future Fund that will channel up to $10 million annually into Aboriginal coastal communities for infrastructure, training, jobs and cultural programs.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:STO) stock is a Hold with a A$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Santos Limited stock, see the AU:STO Stock Forecast page.

Santos Delivers Strong Cash Flow as Barossa LNG and Pikka Projects Near Key Milestones
Jan 21, 2026

Santos reported a strong fourth quarter and full-year 2025 performance, with free cash flow from operations of about $380 million in the quarter and roughly $1.8 billion for the year, supported by higher production, increased sales volumes and over $4.9 billion in annual sales revenue. Unit production costs stayed below $7 per barrel of oil equivalent, gearing fell to 26.8 per cent, and operational recovery in the Cooper Basin, higher Western Australia domestic gas output, record GLNG field performance and ongoing Moomba CCS delivery underscored the strength of its base business. The Barossa LNG project has moved into export mode with its first LNG cargo now loading at Darwin for delivery to Japan, while Pikka Phase 1 in Alaska is 98 per cent complete and on track for first oil in late first quarter 2026 despite a modest cost increase due to inflation and logistics, positioning Santos for near-term production growth. Disciplined capital management was reflected in a $1 billion bond issue, early closure of PNG LNG project finance, and divestments of several non-core gas and offshore fields, allowing Santos to recycle capital while sharpening its focus on core growth and LNG portfolio opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:STO) stock is a Hold with a A$6.55 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Santos Limited stock, see the AU:STO Stock Forecast page.

Santos Reports Lapse of 119,962 Share Acquisition Rights
Jan 14, 2026

Santos Limited has reported the cessation of 119,962 share acquisition rights (ASX code STOAY) after the conditions attached to these rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied, with the lapse effective from 2 October 2025. The lapse of these conditional rights slightly reduces Santos’ pool of potential equity-based incentives, signalling that certain performance or service hurdles tied to the securities were not achieved, which may have minor implications for employee or executive compensation structures but does not affect the company’s existing issued capital.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:STO) stock is a Buy with a A$7.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Santos Limited stock, see the AU:STO Stock Forecast page.

Santos Issues 5,825 Unquoted Share Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Jan 14, 2026

Santos Limited has notified the market of the issue of 5,825 unquoted share acquisition rights under its employee incentive scheme, with an issue date of 19 November 2025. The new securities, which will not be quoted on the ASX, reflect the company’s ongoing use of equity-based remuneration to align staff incentives with shareholder interests and support retention of key personnel, without immediate dilution in the quoted share capital.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:STO) stock is a Buy with a A$7.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Santos Limited stock, see the AU:STO Stock Forecast page.

Santos Issues Over 1 Million New Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Jan 14, 2026

Santos Limited has notified the market of the issue of 1,042,669 ordinary fully paid shares on 6 October 2025 following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted options or other unquoted convertible securities. The move modestly increases the company’s share capital base and reflects ongoing participation in equity-based incentive or financing arrangements, with incremental implications for existing shareholders’ dilution and Santos’ capital structure management.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:STO) stock is a Buy with a A$7.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Santos Limited stock, see the AU:STO Stock Forecast page.

Santos Reports Lapse of Share Acquisition Rights Under Sharematch Plan
Jan 14, 2026

Santos Limited has notified the ASX of the cessation of 16,267 share acquisition rights under its Sharematch plan, recorded as having lapsed on 1 October 2025 because the performance or vesting conditions were not, or could no longer be, satisfied. The lapse slightly reduces the company’s potential issued capital from equity incentive arrangements and signals that specific conditional hurdles attached to this tranche of employee or executive awards were not met, which may have modest implications for dilution, staff incentives and the structure of Santos’ broader remuneration and capital management framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:STO) stock is a Buy with a A$7.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Santos Limited stock, see the AU:STO Stock Forecast page.

Santos Issues 589,372 New Shares Following Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Jan 14, 2026

Santos Limited has notified the market of the issue of 589,372 fully paid ordinary shares following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted securities. The new STO shares, dated 6 October 2025, formalise the movement of unquoted options or convertible securities into listed equity, modestly increasing the company’s share base and reflecting ongoing use of equity-based instruments within its capital and remuneration structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:STO) stock is a Buy with a A$7.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Santos Limited stock, see the AU:STO Stock Forecast page.

Santos CEO Kevin Gallagher Receives Unrestricted Shares from Deferred Incentive Plan
Jan 6, 2026

Santos Limited has reported a change in the indirect interests of its Managing Director and CEO, Kevin Gallagher, following the release of previously restricted shares awarded under the company’s short-term incentive plan. On 1 January 2026, 146,253 fully paid ordinary shares held on his behalf by the employee share plan trustee became unrestricted at the end of a two‑year restriction period tied to his 2023 deferred short-term incentive, and were transferred to him for no consideration, increasing his total indirect shareholding while leaving his share acquisition rights and other restricted shares unchanged. The move reflects ongoing alignment of executive remuneration with shareholder interests but does not involve any new cash outlay by the company or an on-market share transaction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:STO) stock is a Buy with a A$7.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Santos Limited stock, see the AU:STO Stock Forecast page.

Santos Names Long-Serving Executive Lachlan Harris as New CFO
Dec 18, 2025

Santos Limited has appointed long-serving executive Lachlan Harris as Chief Financial Officer, effective immediately, following his tenure as Acting CFO since October. Harris brings 15 years of experience with Santos across treasury, finance systems and risk, and has previously served as Deputy CFO and Treasurer, where he led initiatives such as a significantly oversubscribed US$1 billion 10-year bond offering. Chief Executive Kevin Gallagher highlighted Harris’s financial acumen, risk focus and leadership capabilities, positioning him to support Santos in executing its strategy and sustaining its low-cost model to drive long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:STO) stock is a Buy with a A$7.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Santos Limited stock, see the AU:STO Stock Forecast page.

Santos Limited Optimizes Portfolio with Strategic Asset Divestments
Dec 17, 2025

Santos Limited has announced the divestment of its 42.86% interest in the Mahalo Joint Venture to Comet Ridge Limited and has completed the sale of its interests in the Petrel and Tern fields to Eni Australia. These transactions are part of Santos’ strategy to optimize its portfolio by monetizing non-core assets, which are not immediate priorities, thereby reinforcing its capital discipline. The divestments are expected to enhance shareholder returns and reduce future decommissioning liabilities, while allowing partners to develop these assets for the Australian domestic gas market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:STO) stock is a Buy with a A$7.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Santos Limited stock, see the AU:STO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 19, 2026