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Karoon Energy Ltd (AU:KAR)
ASX:KAR
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Karoon Energy Ltd (KAR) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:KAR

Karoon Energy Ltd

(Sydney:KAR)

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Neutral 67 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
AU$2.00
▲(23.46% Upside)
Karoon Energy Ltd's overall stock score reflects strong operational efficiency and attractive valuation metrics. However, challenges in revenue growth and profitability, alongside mixed technical indicators, temper the outlook. Strategic acquisitions and resource upgrades provide a cautiously optimistic future outlook.
Positive Factors
Strategic Acquisitions
The acquisition of Baúna FPSO is a strategic move that enhances Karoon's resource base and extends project life, supporting long-term growth and stability.
Operational Efficiency
High operational efficiency at Baúna indicates strong execution capabilities, which can lead to sustained production levels and cost management.
Safety and Environmental Performance
Enhanced safety and environmental metrics reflect Karoon's commitment to sustainable operations, which is crucial for long-term industry compliance and reputation.
Negative Factors
Decline in Revenue
A significant revenue decline poses challenges for Karoon's financial stability, affecting its ability to invest in growth and maintain profitability.
Reduced Profitability
A sharp drop in net profit indicates pressure on Karoon's earnings, which could impact shareholder returns and reinvestment capabilities.
Free Cash Flow Challenges
Negative free cash flow growth suggests difficulties in generating cash, which can constrain Karoon's ability to fund operations and strategic initiatives.

Karoon Energy Ltd (KAR) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Karoon Energy Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKaroon Energy Ltd operates as an oil and gas exploration and production company in Australia and Brazil. The company holds 100% interest in the Santos Basin consisting of 5 off-shore blocks located in the State of Sáo Paulo, Brazil; 50% interest in the Carnarvon Basin located in the north Western Australia; and the Tumbes Basin covering an area of approximately 4,875 square kilometers located in northern Peru. The company was formerly known as Karoon Gas Australia Ltd and changed its name to Karoon Energy Ltd in December 2018. Karoon Energy Ltd was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Southbank, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyKaroon Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas produced from its exploration and production activities. The company's revenue model is anchored in its ability to locate, extract, and sell hydrocarbons at competitive market prices. Key revenue streams include the sale of oil from its operational fields, with additional contributions from gas sales. The company has established significant partnerships with other energy firms and service providers, which facilitate its exploration and production efforts. Moreover, fluctuations in global oil and gas prices significantly impact its earnings, making market dynamics a crucial factor in its financial performance. Strategic investments in technology and sustainability initiatives also support operational efficiency and cost reduction, further contributing to its profitability.

Karoon Energy Ltd Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 26, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented both challenges and achievements. Key highlights included successful strategic acquisitions, resource upgrades, and strong production performance. However, these were offset by significant declines in profit and revenue, as well as operational setbacks. The outlook is cautiously optimistic with strategic plans to improve operations and extend project life.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Acquisition of Baúna FPSO
Karoon acquired the Baúna FPSO, which is expected to lower the cost base over time and extend the economic life out to 2039, increasing reserves by 45% to 52.7 million barrels.
Increase in Neon Resource
Neon resources increased by 54% to 86.5 million barrels of oil; the project is advancing with a potential final investment decision targeted for the second half of 2026.
Improved Safety and Environmental Performance
Safety performance improved with no LTIs and a reduction in emissions intensity. A 100-day safety improvement plan was completed for the FPSO.
Capital and Shareholder Returns
Returned $53 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, ending the half with leverage at 0.6x and strong liquidity of $452 million.
Positive Operational Performance
Baúna production exceeded expectations with FPSO efficiency at 94.5%, leading to an increase in production guidance for Baúna to 7.3 to 7.8 million barrels.
Negative Updates
Decline in Underlying NPAT
Underlying NPAT for the half was USD 45 million, 61% lower than the prior period, due to weaker global oil prices and lower sales volumes.
Electrical Submersible Pump Failure at SPS-92
Partial failure of the electrical submersible pump at SPS-92 reduced production rates; full production not expected to resume until Q2 2026.
Reduced Revenue
Revenue fell to $308 million from $409 million in the first half of 2024, impacted by lower oil prices and deferred sales volumes.
Increased Production Costs
Production costs increased by $3 million to $71.8 million, with transitional ops and maintenance service costs offsetting FPSO lease savings.
Company Guidance
In the first half of the fiscal year 2025, Karoon Energy Limited reported an underlying NPAT of USD 45 million, a 61% decrease from the previous year, primarily due to weaker global oil prices and lower sales volumes. The company ended the period with net debt of USD 238 million and strong liquidity of USD 452 million. During this time, Karoon acquired the Baúna FPSO, increasing its reserves base to 52.7 million barrels and extending the economic life of the project to 2039. Production for the first half was about 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent higher than the same period in 2024. EBITDAX was down by USD 66.2 million from the first half of 2024, with revenues at USD 308 million compared to USD 409 million the previous year. The company also returned USD 53 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, maintaining a leverage ratio of 0.6x. Looking ahead, Karoon plans to continue its buyback program and declared an unfranked dividend of AUD 0.024 per share, representing a 25% payout of its first-half underlying NPAT.

Karoon Energy Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Karoon Energy Ltd demonstrates strong operational efficiency with high gross and EBITDA margins. However, the significant revenue decline and reduced net profit margin highlight challenges in maintaining growth and profitability. The balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage, but the decline in return on equity suggests reduced shareholder returns. Cash flow generation is a concern, with negative free cash flow growth.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Karoon Energy Ltd has shown strong gross profit margins, consistently above 48% over the years, indicating efficient cost management. However, the company experienced a significant revenue decline of 36.1% in the latest year, which is a concern. The net profit margin has also decreased to 16.4% from 29.7% the previous year, reflecting reduced profitability. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a healthy EBIT margin of 38.2% and an EBITDA margin of 65.3%, showcasing operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.52, indicating a balanced capital structure with moderate leverage. The return on equity has decreased to 13.1% from 27.6%, suggesting reduced profitability for shareholders. However, the equity ratio remains stable, reflecting a solid financial position with a good proportion of equity financing.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Karoon Energy Ltd's free cash flow growth rate is negative at -48.7%, indicating challenges in generating free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.89, suggesting good cash generation from operations relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.49, indicating that not all net income is translating into free cash flow.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.06B776.50M847.00M842.19M531.00M228.98M
Gross Profit447.21M587.80M495.20M406.60M257.97M72.96M
EBITDA587.44M506.90M636.53M586.79M365.34M115.50M
Net Income214.03M127.50M251.29M242.33M-88.87M5.88M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.72B1.94B1.93B1.79B1.69B1.35B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments112.10M341.20M170.02M112.37M229.31M177.43M
Total Debt388.40M511.20M487.80M414.18M459.58M416.70M
Total Liabilities725.30M965.10M1.02B1.08B1.29B844.10M
Stockholders Equity996.10M976.40M911.94M711.49M401.66M506.49M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-4.38M213.70M-435.60M-73.44M55.37M-191.54M
Operating Cash Flow463.77M434.60M311.29M450.76M204.69M39.93M
Investing Cash Flow-470.83M-218.60M-746.90M-525.54M-147.75M-226.84M
Financing Cash Flow-243.50M-37.20M533.15M-50.84M-21.37M-31.38M

Karoon Energy Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1.62
Price Trends
50DMA
1.57
Positive
100DMA
1.66
Negative
200DMA
1.64
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
<0.01
Negative
RSI
55.76
Neutral
STOCH
72.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:KAR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.60, above the 50-day MA of 1.57, and below the 200-day MA of 1.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:KAR.

Karoon Energy Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
67
Neutral
$1.18B5.8713.85%4.58%-17.02%-35.47%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
45
Neutral
AU$413.93M-2.09-42.02%59.48%-1714.71%
35
Underperform
AU$754.78M-9.79-14.41%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:KAR
Karoon Energy Ltd
1.63
0.37
29.48%
BEPTF
Beach Energy
0.77
0.02
2.67%
HZNFF
Horizon Oil Limited
0.16
0.06
60.00%
STOSF
Santos Limited
4.30
0.19
4.62%
AU:STX
Strike Energy Limited
0.12
-0.08
-40.00%
AU:TBN
Tamboran Resources Limited
0.20
0.07
53.85%

Karoon Energy Ltd Corporate Events

Karoon Energy Ltd Announces Quotation of New Securities
Dec 5, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd has announced the quotation of 12,209 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange, effective from December 3, 2025. This move is part of the company’s strategic actions to enhance its financial flexibility and support its ongoing projects, potentially impacting its market positioning and offering new opportunities for stakeholders.

Karoon Energy Updates on Market Buy-Back Program
Dec 4, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of December 5, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 3,246,808 securities, with an additional 331,927 securities bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of Karoon Energy’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

Karoon Energy Ltd Updates on Buy-Back Program
Dec 1, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. The company reported the buy-back of 484,611 ordinary fully paid securities on the previous day, adding to a total of 2,129,184 securities bought back before that day. This buy-back initiative is part of Karoon Energy’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

Karoon Energy Ltd Updates on Buy-Back Program
Nov 30, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd has announced an update regarding its ongoing buy-back program, detailing the acquisition of 342,309 ordinary fully paid securities on the previous day, adding to a total of 1,786,875 securities bought back prior. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure efficiently, potentially enhancing shareholder value and reflecting confidence in its financial health.

KKR Entities Cease Substantial Holding in Karoon Energy Ltd
Nov 27, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd has announced that Comet Asia Holdings II Pte. Ltd., Comet Asia Holdings I Pte. Ltd., KKR Asia III Fund Investments Pte. Ltd., and KKR Asian Fund III L.P., collectively known as the KKR Entities, have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of November 24, 2025. This change in substantial holding indicates a shift in the company’s shareholder composition, which could impact its market positioning and influence the strategic decisions of Karoon Energy Ltd moving forward.

Karoon Energy Ltd Updates on Market Buy-Back Program
Nov 25, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. The company reported that it repurchased 514,913 ordinary fully paid securities on the previous day, adding to a total of 365,405 securities bought back before that day. This buy-back initiative is part of Karoon Energy’s strategy to optimize its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

Karoon Energy Ltd Announces Change in Substantial Holding
Nov 25, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd announced that Superannuation and Investments HoldCo Pty Ltd and its related bodies corporate have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of November 24, 2025. This change in substantial holding may impact the company’s shareholder structure and could influence its market dynamics and stakeholder relations.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ceases to be Substantial Holder in Karoon Energy
Nov 25, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd has announced that the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) and its related bodies corporate have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of November 24, 2025. This change in holding could impact Karoon Energy’s shareholder composition and potentially influence its market dynamics, although specific implications for stakeholders were not detailed in the release.

Karoon Energy Ltd Updates on Buy-Back Program
Nov 24, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd has announced an update regarding its on-market buy-back program, revealing that 365,405 ordinary fully paid securities were bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to optimize its capital structure and enhance shareholder value, reflecting a proactive approach to managing its financial resources and potentially impacting its market positioning positively.

Karoon Energy Ltd Announces Quotation of New Securities
Nov 24, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd has announced the quotation of 6,310 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange, effective November 5, 2025. This move is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to manage its capital structure and enhance liquidity, potentially impacting its market positioning and providing opportunities for stakeholders to engage with the company’s growth trajectory.

Citigroup Ceases Substantial Holding in Karoon Energy
Nov 19, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd has announced that Citigroup Global Markets Australia Pty Limited and its related entities have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of November 17, 2025. This change in substantial holding is due to a decrease in relevant interest in shares by Citibank, N.A. Sydney Branch, Citigroup Global Markets Australia Pty Limited, and Citigroup Global Markets Limited, primarily through securities lending agreements. The impact of this announcement may influence the company’s shareholder structure and market perception as Citigroup’s reduced stake could affect investor confidence and market dynamics.

Karoon Energy Ltd Appoints New Director to Strengthen Leadership
Nov 2, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd has announced the appointment of Carri Lockhart as a new director, effective from November 3, 2025. This announcement is significant as it reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its leadership team, which could have implications for its strategic direction and stakeholder interests.

Karoon Energy Expands Market Presence with New Securities Quotation
Oct 31, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd has announced the quotation of 32,280 fully paid ordinary securities on the Australian Securities Exchange, effective from October 22, 2025. This move is part of the company’s strategic efforts to enhance its market presence and operational capacity, potentially impacting its industry positioning by increasing its capital base and providing more opportunities for stakeholder engagement.

Karoon Energy Appoints Carri Lockhart as New CEO
Oct 30, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd has appointed Ms. Carri Lockhart as its new Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, effective from November 3, 2025. Ms. Lockhart, who has over 30 years of experience in the energy sector, will lead the company as it prepares to take over operatorship of the Baúna FPSO in Brazil and pursue growth opportunities in Brazil and the US. Her extensive experience in managing large-scale operations and strategic growth is expected to drive Karoon’s next phase of development, enhancing shareholder value and strengthening the company’s market position.

Karoon Energy Issues Performance Rights to Employees
Oct 23, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd has announced the issuance of 76,322 performance rights under an employee incentive scheme, which are set to expire on December 31, 2028. These securities are unquoted and subject to transfer restrictions until the restrictions are lifted, reflecting the company’s commitment to incentivizing its workforce and aligning employee interests with long-term company performance.

Karoon Energy Ltd Announces Quotation of New Securities
Oct 7, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd has announced the application for the quotation of 50,959 fully paid ordinary securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). This move is part of the company’s efforts to enhance its financial flexibility and potentially expand its operations, which could have significant implications for its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

Karoon Energy Maintains 2025 Production Guidance Amid Operational Updates
Oct 7, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd announced an operational update regarding its Baúna Project in Brazil and the Who Dat project in the US. The PRA-2 well at Baúna has been shut down due to a subsea control umbilical issue, but the company’s full-year production guidance remains unchanged. In the US, sidetrack operations at the E6 well in the Who Dat field are set to begin, targeting an oil reservoir with expected production rates of 3,000 to 5,000 bopd. The company anticipates that these operations will not affect its production targets for 2025, maintaining its guidance for the year.

Karoon Energy Initiates On-Market Share Buy-Back
Sep 25, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd has announced an on-market buy-back of its ordinary fully paid shares, as per the recent notification. This strategic move is likely aimed at optimizing the company’s capital structure and potentially enhancing shareholder value, reflecting a positive outlook on its financial health and market positioning.

Karoon Energy Initiates Second Phase of Share Buyback
Sep 25, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd is set to begin the second phase of its US$75 million on-market share buyback program in October, following the completion of the first phase where 20.8 million shares were bought back and canceled. This initiative, which received overwhelming shareholder approval, is part of Karoon’s capital allocation strategy aimed at enhancing shareholder value by repurchasing undervalued shares, while maintaining compliance with credit agreements and market conditions.

Karoon Energy Announces CEO Presentation
Sep 22, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd has announced a presentation to be made by its CEO and Managing Director, as authorized by the company’s Board. This announcement indicates an effort by Karoon Energy to engage with stakeholders and provide insights into its operations, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

Karoon Energy Director Increases Shareholding
Sep 22, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd announced a change in the director’s interest, with Ms. Melissa Holzberger acquiring an additional 12,698 ordinary shares through an on-market trade. This change reflects a significant increase in her indirect interest, now totaling 24,492 shares, potentially indicating confidence in the company’s future performance.

Karoon Energy to Present at 2025 Bank of America Asia Pacific Conference
Sep 9, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd announced its participation in the 2025 Bank of America Asia Pacific Conference, where it will use reference materials for investor briefings. This engagement reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to engage with investors and stakeholders, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

Karoon Energy Issues Performance Rights to Employees
Sep 8, 2025

Karoon Energy Ltd has announced the issuance of performance rights under an employee incentive scheme, with a total of 290,416 unquoted securities set to expire in 2027 and 2028. This move is part of the company’s strategy to incentivize employees, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and aligning staff interests with long-term company goals.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 25, 2025