Origin Energy Limited (ORG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$19.72B
• Dividend Yield: 5.2%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.95M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.56
• Revenue Growth: 6.48%
• EPS Growth: 6.25%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 5,000
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 1,722,747,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,552,963
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,951,149
• PEG Ratio: 2.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.87
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.08
• P/FCF Ratio: -17.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$12.46
• Price Target Upside: 8.01% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.67
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$16.67B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$14.00 ▲(21.32% Upside)

Origin Energy Limited shows strong financial performance with robust revenue and profit growth, though cash flow management needs attention. The stock's valuation is reasonable with an attractive dividend yield. Technical indicators suggest neutral momentum but potential overbought conditions.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The significant revenue growth indicates robust market demand and effective business strategies, positioning the company for sustained expansion.

Profitability

Improved profitability margins reflect efficient cost management and operational effectiveness, supporting long-term financial health.

Balance Sheet Stability

A stable debt-to-equity ratio suggests prudent financial management, ensuring financial stability and flexibility for future growth.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Management

Negative free cash flow can limit reinvestment opportunities and strain financial resources, potentially impacting long-term growth.

Operating Cash Flow

Decreased operating cash flow may challenge the company's ability to fund operations and invest in growth initiatives, affecting future performance.

Free Cash Flow Volatility

Volatility in free cash flow can create uncertainty in financial planning and hinder strategic investments, impacting long-term stability.

Origin Energy Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Origin Energy Limited, an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas, and sale of liquefied natural gas in Australia and internationally. The company operates through, Energy Markets, Integrated Gas, and Corporate segments. Its exploration and production portfolio includes the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland; the Browse basin in Western Australia; and the Beetaloo basin in the Northern Territory. The company also generates electricity from coal, wind, pumped water storage, solar, and cogeneration plants; sells electricity, natural gas, and LPG; provides GreenPower and green gas products; and supplies LPG to residentials and businesses. In addition, it offers electric and gas hot water systems; split system air conditioners; ducted and space heating solutions; ducted evaporative cooling systems; and ducted reverse cycle air conditioning systems. Origin Energy Limited was incorporated in 1946 and is based in Barangaroo, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Origin Energy generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary source is its energy retail business, which sells electricity and gas to residential and commercial customers. Additionally, the company derives income from its energy generation segment, which includes a mix of fossil fuel-based and renewable energy sources. Significant revenue also comes from the sale of natural gas, both domestically and through exports, particularly from its investments in LNG projects. Origin has established partnerships with various solar companies and renewable energy projects, enhancing its portfolio and market presence. Moreover, the company participates in energy trading, which allows it to capitalize on fluctuations in energy prices, contributing further to its earnings.

Origin Energy Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Origin Energy Limited demonstrates strong revenue and profit growth, supported by improved margins and a stable balance sheet. However, the recent negative free cash flow is a concern, indicating a need for better cash flow management.

Income Statement

Origin Energy Limited has shown strong revenue growth with a 90.2% increase in the latest year, indicating robust top-line expansion. The gross profit margin improved to 19.2%, reflecting effective cost management. Net profit margin also increased to 8.7%, showcasing enhanced profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved, indicating operational efficiency gains.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has remained stable, indicating a balanced approach to leverage. Return on equity improved to 14.7%, reflecting strong profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio suggests a solid capital structure with a significant portion of assets financed by equity.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has decreased, but the company has managed to maintain a positive free cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The significant growth in free cash flow is a positive sign, although the negative free cash flow in the latest year is a concern.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.20B	17.12B	15.98B	16.38B	14.38B	11.88B
Gross Profit	2.65B	3.28B	3.15B	1.97B	996.00M	1.62B
EBITDA	1.50B	2.31B	1.78B	866.00M	-252.00M	-1.37B
Net Income	1.48B	1.48B	1.40B	1.05B	-1.43B	-2.28B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	20.99B	20.99B	20.45B	18.95B	24.02B	21.31B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.01B	1.01B	1.38B	930.00M	1.48B	975.00M
Total Debt	4.84B	4.84B	3.38B	3.26B	3.39B	5.23B
Total Liabilities	11.07B	11.07B	10.96B	10.04B	14.00B	11.83B
Stockholders Equity	9.92B	9.92B	9.49B	8.89B	10.00B	9.46B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-903.00M	-1.05B	461.00M	576.00M	2.46B	521.00M
Operating Cash Flow	498.00M	425.00M	1.11B	1.05B	2.80B	860.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.69B	-870.00M	-16.00M	-608.00M	390.00M	106.00M
Financing Cash Flow	175.00M	-19.00M	-953.00M	-579.00M	-3.04B	-1.73B

Origin Energy Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 11.54
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ORG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.69, below the 50-day MA of 12.05, and above the 200-day MA of 11.36, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.87 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:ORG.

Origin Energy Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ORG	71 Outperform	AU$19.72B	13.33	15.06%	5.20%	6.48%	6.25%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
STO	65 Neutral	$20.77B	13.13	6.59%	5.82%	-5.81%	-17.90%
BPT	60 Neutral	$2.62B	―	-1.02%	7.79%	17.16%	90.79%
BKY	57 Neutral	£227.36M	―	-6.30%	―	―	-67.12%
STX	45 Neutral	AU$413.93M	-2.09	-42.02%	―	59.48%	-1714.71%
TBN	35 Underperform	AU$754.78M	-9.79	-14.41%	―	―	―

Origin Energy Limited Corporate Events

Origin Energy Announces Director’s Interest Change

Origin Energy Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically involving Frank Calabria. The change, effective from October 15, 2025, involves the acquisition of 123,457 Performance Share Rights and 123,457 Restricted Share Rights. This update reflects the company’s ongoing adjustments in its executive shareholding structure, which may impact its corporate governance and stakeholder interests.

Origin Energy Issues Unquoted Equity Securities for Employee Incentive

Origin Energy Limited announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities, specifically performance share rights and restricted share rights, as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move is likely aimed at aligning employee interests with company performance, potentially enhancing operational efficiency and stakeholder value.

Origin Energy’s AGM Approves Key Resolutions and Climate Action Plan

Origin Energy Limited held its Annual General Meeting on 15 October 2025, where all resolutions were passed by poll. Key resolutions included the election and re-election of board members, approval of the remuneration report, and adoption of the 2025 Climate Transition Action Plan. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing commitment to governance, executive management, and sustainability, potentially enhancing its industry positioning and stakeholder confidence.

Origin Energy Highlights Strong Performance and Strategic Investments at 2025 AGM

At its 2025 Annual General Meeting, Origin Energy highlighted its strong performance across customer, operational, financial, and shareholder metrics. The company emphasized its strategic investments in retail operations, reliability, and productivity, as well as its stake in Octopus Energy and Kraken Technologies. Origin’s efforts in the energy transition are underscored by its $1.7 billion investment in battery technology and securing transmission rights for a major wind farm project. The company also reported strong growth in its retail business and continued success with Octopus Energy, despite the rapidly evolving energy landscape.

Origin Energy Announces Board Change with Director Retirement

Origin Energy Limited announced the retirement of Ms. Maxine Brenner from its Board of Directors, effective 15 October 2025. This change in the board’s composition could influence the company’s strategic direction and governance, potentially impacting stakeholders and the company’s positioning in the energy sector.

Origin Energy Issues Unquoted Equity Securities for Employee Incentive

Origin Energy Limited announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move involves the allocation of performance share rights, share rights, and restricted share rights, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX. The issuance of these securities is a strategic step to align employee interests with company performance, potentially enhancing employee motivation and retention.

Origin Energy Announces Director’s Change in Securities Interest

Origin Energy Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest in securities, specifically involving Nora Scheinkestel. The change involves the acquisition of 845 fully paid ordinary shares, which are held indirectly through Scheinkestel Superannuation Pty Ltd. This update reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance, ensuring stakeholders are informed of changes in director interests.

Origin Energy Director Sells Shares to Cover Tax Obligations

Origin Energy Limited announced that its director, Frank Calabria, has sold shares primarily to cover personal tax obligations related to the vesting of equity incentives. Despite this sale, Mr. Calabria maintains a significant interest in the company, exceeding the Minimum Shareholding Requirement. The transaction was conducted in compliance with the company’s Dealing in Securities Policy, ensuring transparency and adherence to corporate governance standards.

Origin Energy Announces 2025 Annual General Meeting Details

Origin Energy Limited has announced its 2025 Annual General Meeting (AGM) for shareholders, scheduled to take place at the Shangri-La Sydney on 15 October 2025. The meeting will be available via a live webcast on the company’s website, allowing stakeholders to stay informed about any potential changes to the event arrangements.

Origin Energy Director’s Share Sale for Tax Obligations

Origin Energy Limited announced the sale of shares by its director, Mr. Frank Calabria, primarily to meet personal tax obligations related to the vesting of equity incentives. Despite the sale, Mr. Calabria maintains a substantial interest in the company, exceeding the minimum shareholding requirements. This transaction was conducted in line with Origin’s Dealing in Securities Policy, indicating a transparent and compliant approach to director share dealings.

Origin Energy Issues Unquoted Equity Securities as Part of Employee Incentive Scheme

Origin Energy Limited has announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities, specifically performance share rights and restricted share rights, totaling 324,027 securities. These securities are part of an employee incentive scheme and are not intended to be quoted on the ASX. This move reflects the company’s strategy to incentivize employees, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and aligning employee interests with company performance.