Origin Energy Limited (ORG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $21.24B
• Dividend Yield: 4.85%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.52M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.37
• Revenue Growth: 6.48%
• EPS Growth: 6.25%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 5,000
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 56
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 1,722,747,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,323,918
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,518,283
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.30
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.44
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.95
• 1Y Price Target: $12.59
• Price Target Upside: 1.49% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$14.00 ▲(12.81% Upside)

Origin Energy Limited's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and reasonable valuation. The bullish technical indicators support the positive outlook, although caution is advised due to overbought signals. The lack of earnings call and corporate events data did not impact the score.

Origin Energy Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Origin Energy Limited, an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas, and sale of liquefied natural gas in Australia and internationally. The company operates through, Energy Markets, Integrated Gas, and Corporate segments. Its exploration and production portfolio includes the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland; the Browse basin in Western Australia; and the Beetaloo basin in the Northern Territory. The company also generates electricity from coal, wind, pumped water storage, solar, and cogeneration plants; sells electricity, natural gas, and LPG; provides GreenPower and green gas products; and supplies LPG to residentials and businesses. In addition, it offers electric and gas hot water systems; split system air conditioners; ducted and space heating solutions; ducted evaporative cooling systems; and ducted reverse cycle air conditioning systems. Origin Energy Limited was incorporated in 1946 and is based in Barangaroo, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Origin Energy Limited generates revenue through several key streams. The primary revenue source comes from its energy retailing division, which sells electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across Australia. This includes both traditional energy sources and products from renewable energy initiatives. Another significant portion of Origin's income is derived from its exploration and production activities, where the company extracts natural gas and oil, predominantly for the Australian market and export. In addition, Origin operates a portfolio of power generation assets, including gas-fired power stations and renewable energy sources like wind and solar, contributing to the company's income through electricity sales. Partnerships with other energy providers and investments in emerging energy technologies also play a vital role in supporting Origin's revenue growth by diversifying its energy mix and enhancing its service offerings.

Origin Energy Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Origin Energy Limited demonstrates strong revenue and profit growth, supported by improved margins and a stable balance sheet. However, the recent negative free cash flow is a concern, indicating a need for improved cash flow management.

Income Statement

Origin Energy Limited has shown strong revenue growth with a 90.2% increase in the latest year, indicating robust top-line expansion. The gross profit margin improved to 19.2%, reflecting effective cost management. Net profit margin also increased to 8.7%, showcasing enhanced profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved, indicating operational efficiency gains.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has remained stable, indicating a balanced approach to leverage. Return on equity improved to 14.7%, reflecting strong profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio suggests a solid capital structure with a significant portion of assets financed by equity.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has decreased, but the company has managed to maintain a positive free cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The significant growth in free cash flow is a positive sign, although the negative free cash flow in the latest year is a concern.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.20B	17.12B	15.98B	16.38B	14.38B	11.88B
Gross Profit	2.65B	3.28B	3.15B	1.97B	996.00M	1.62B
EBITDA	1.50B	2.31B	1.78B	866.00M	-252.00M	-1.37B
Net Income	1.48B	1.48B	1.40B	1.05B	-1.43B	-2.28B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	20.99B	20.99B	20.45B	18.95B	24.02B	21.31B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.01B	1.01B	1.38B	930.00M	1.48B	975.00M
Total Debt	4.84B	4.84B	3.38B	3.26B	3.39B	5.23B
Total Liabilities	11.07B	11.07B	10.96B	10.04B	14.00B	11.83B
Stockholders Equity	9.92B	9.92B	9.49B	8.89B	10.00B	9.46B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-903.00M	-1.05B	461.00M	576.00M	2.46B	521.00M
Operating Cash Flow	498.00M	425.00M	1.11B	1.05B	2.80B	860.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.69B	-870.00M	-16.00M	-608.00M	390.00M	106.00M
Financing Cash Flow	175.00M	-19.00M	-953.00M	-579.00M	-3.04B	-1.73B

Origin Energy Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 12.41
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ORG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.49, above the 50-day MA of 11.88, and above the 200-day MA of 10.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:ORG.

Origin Energy Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ORG	71 Outperform	$21.24B	14.35	15.06%	4.85%	6.48%	6.25%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.06B	17.77	5.60%	3.68%	6.63%	11.55%
BKY	―	£114.05M	215.00	-6.30%	―	―	―
BEPTF	―	$1.78B	27.16	-1.02%	6.61%	―	―
STOSF	―	$16.46B	17.35	6.59%	4.86%	―	―
STX	45 Neutral	AU$362.77M	57.35	-4.01%	―	801.92%	-985.71%
TBN	35 Underperform	AU$373.77M	―	-10.88%	―	―	―

Origin Energy Limited Corporate Events

Origin Energy’s Mixed Quarterly Performance and Strategic Growth in Retail Sector

Origin Energy Limited’s June 2025 Quarterly Report highlights a mixed performance across its segments. The Integrated Gas segment saw a slight decline in revenue due to lower LNG prices, although production increased marginally. The Energy Markets segment experienced steady electricity sales but a decline in gas volumes, while customer accounts grew significantly. Octopus Energy, Origin’s retail business, expanded its customer base by 600,000 accounts and is on track to reach its ambitious target of 100 million contracted accounts by 2027. The report underscores Origin’s strategic focus on maintaining reliable gas supply and enhancing its retail energy services, despite challenges such as natural field decline and market volatility.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$11.65 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Announces Issuance of Unquoted Equity Securities

Origin Energy Limited has announced the issuance and conversion of 37,498 unquoted equity securities, specifically ordinary fully paid shares, as of June 30, 2025. This move is part of the company’s strategic financial management, potentially impacting its capital structure and shareholder value, while also reflecting its ongoing efforts to optimize operational efficiency and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$11.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Announces Cessation of Share Rights

Origin Energy Limited announced the cessation of 9,738 share rights due to the lapse of conditional rights that were not satisfied by the deadline of June 30, 2025. This development may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, particularly in terms of shareholding adjustments and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$11.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Issues Unquoted Share Rights to Employees

Origin Energy Limited announced the issuance of 169,253 unquoted share rights under an employee incentive scheme, effective from April 29, 2025. This move is part of the company’s strategy to align employee interests with corporate goals, potentially enhancing workforce motivation and retention, and strengthening its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$11.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Updates FY25 Guidance with Mixed Outlook

Origin Energy Limited has updated its FY25 guidance, projecting its Energy Markets Underlying EBITDA to be between $1,300 – $1,400 million, an increase from the previous range due to operational improvements and favorable market conditions. However, its share of Octopus Energy’s FY25 Underlying EBITDA is expected to incur a loss of up to $100 million, influenced by warm weather in the UK and ongoing investments in energy services and non-UK markets, despite strong growth in customer numbers.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$12.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Concludes Sinopec LNG Price Review

Origin Energy Limited has announced the conclusion of a price review for its long-term LNG supply contract with Sinopec, resulting in a reduction in the JCC-linked contract slope effective from January 2025. This adjustment is expected to decrease Origin’s share of Australia Pacific LNG’s Underlying EBITDA by $55 million for the second half of FY25, although there is no change to the FY25 guidance for Integrated Gas. The contract, which ends in December 2035, includes one final price review in 2030.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$12.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Issues Unquoted Share Rights for Employee Incentive

Origin Energy Limited announced the issuance of 254 unquoted share rights as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move is aimed at enhancing employee engagement and aligning their interests with the company’s long-term goals, potentially impacting the company’s operational dynamics and stakeholder relations.