Origin Energy Limited (ORG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$20.48B
• Dividend Yield: 5.3%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.34M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.65
• Revenue Growth: 6.48%
• EPS Growth: 6.25%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 5,000
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 1,722,747,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,785,455
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,339,156
• PEG Ratio: 2.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.87
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.08
• P/FCF Ratio: -17.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$12.33
• Price Target Upside: 2.12% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$12.00 ▼(-0.58% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 11/01/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 11/01/25

Origin Energy Limited shows strong financial performance with robust revenue and profit growth, though cash flow management needs attention. The stock's valuation is reasonable with an attractive dividend yield. Technical indicators suggest neutral momentum but potential overbought conditions.

Positive Factors

Revenue and margin expansion

Material top‑line growth accompanied by meaningful gross and net margin improvement indicates the business is scaling while managing costs. Sustained revenue expansion and higher margins support durable earnings power, capacity to fund investments and resilience through commodity cycles.

Integrated energy business model

Vertical integration across generation, retail and upstream gas lets Origin capture margins across the value chain, hedge supply‑cost mismatches and prioritise dispatch of owned capacity. This structural diversification supports more stable long‑run cash flows versus single‑segment peers.

Solid balance sheet and improving ROE

A stable leverage profile and stronger return on equity reflect disciplined capital allocation and improved capital efficiency. This durable financial strength preserves borrowing capacity for capex, supports investment in generation/renewables and lowers refinancing risk over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Negative free cash flow in latest year

A shift to negative free cash flow despite reported profit makes funding capital expenditure, dividend policy and debt servicing more reliant on external financing or asset sales. Persistent negative FCF would weaken flexibility and raise execution risk for strategic investments.

Operating cash flow deterioration

Declining operating cash flow versus earnings suggests working capital swings, timing or margin conversion problems. If sustained, weaker cash conversion increases liquidity risk and may force trade‑offs between maintenance capex, growth projects and shareholder returns.

Commodity and wholesale exposure

Material exposure to wholesale electricity, gas prices and fuel costs creates persistent earnings volatility. While hedging mitigates some risk, structural commodity sensitivity leaves margins and cash flow dependent on market cycles and supply dynamics over the medium term.

Origin Energy Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Origin Energy Limited, an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas, and sale of liquefied natural gas in Australia and internationally. The company operates through, Energy Markets, Integrated Gas, and Corporate segments. Its exploration and production portfolio includes the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland; the Browse basin in Western Australia; and the Beetaloo basin in the Northern Territory. The company also generates electricity from coal, wind, pumped water storage, solar, and cogeneration plants; sells electricity, natural gas, and LPG; provides GreenPower and green gas products; and supplies LPG to residentials and businesses. In addition, it offers electric and gas hot water systems; split system air conditioners; ducted and space heating solutions; ducted evaporative cooling systems; and ducted reverse cycle air conditioning systems. Origin Energy Limited was incorporated in 1946 and is based in Barangaroo, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Origin Energy generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary source is its energy retail business, which sells electricity and gas to residential and commercial customers. Additionally, the company derives income from its energy generation segment, which includes a mix of fossil fuel-based and renewable energy sources. Significant revenue also comes from the sale of natural gas, both domestically and through exports, particularly from its investments in LNG projects. Origin has established partnerships with various solar companies and renewable energy projects, enhancing its portfolio and market presence. Moreover, the company participates in energy trading, which allows it to capitalize on fluctuations in energy prices, contributing further to its earnings.

Origin Energy Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Origin Energy Limited demonstrates strong revenue and profit growth, supported by improved margins and a stable balance sheet. However, the recent negative free cash flow is a concern, indicating a need for better cash flow management.

Income Statement

Origin Energy Limited has shown strong revenue growth with a 90.2% increase in the latest year, indicating robust top-line expansion. The gross profit margin improved to 19.2%, reflecting effective cost management. Net profit margin also increased to 8.7%, showcasing enhanced profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved, indicating operational efficiency gains.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has remained stable, indicating a balanced approach to leverage. Return on equity improved to 14.7%, reflecting strong profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio suggests a solid capital structure with a significant portion of assets financed by equity.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has decreased, but the company has managed to maintain a positive free cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The significant growth in free cash flow is a positive sign, although the negative free cash flow in the latest year is a concern.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	16.32B	17.12B	15.98B	16.38B	14.38B	11.88B
Gross Profit	1.78B	3.28B	3.15B	1.97B	996.00M	1.62B
EBITDA	1.37B	2.31B	1.78B	866.00M	-252.00M	-1.37B
Net Income	1.02B	1.48B	1.40B	1.05B	-1.43B	-2.28B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	20.10B	20.99B	20.45B	18.95B	24.02B	21.31B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	852.00M	1.01B	1.38B	930.00M	1.48B	975.00M
Total Debt	4.72B	4.84B	3.38B	3.26B	3.39B	5.23B
Total Liabilities	10.37B	11.07B	10.96B	10.04B	14.00B	11.83B
Stockholders Equity	9.74B	9.92B	9.49B	8.89B	10.00B	9.46B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	766.00M	-1.05B	461.00M	576.00M	2.46B	521.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.77B	425.00M	1.11B	1.05B	2.80B	860.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.27B	-870.00M	-16.00M	-608.00M	390.00M	106.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-543.00M	-19.00M	-953.00M	-579.00M	-3.04B	-1.73B

Origin Energy Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 12.07
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ORG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.62, above the 50-day MA of 11.45, and above the 200-day MA of 11.65, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.63 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:ORG.

Origin Energy Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ORG	71 Outperform	AU$20.48B	20.07	15.06%	5.30%	6.48%	6.25%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
BPT	60 Neutral	$2.51B	-22.24	-1.02%	7.72%	17.16%	90.79%
STO	60 Neutral	$21.48B	16.93	6.59%	6.00%	-5.81%	-17.90%
TBN	52 Neutral	AU$963.01M	-14.53	-14.41%	―	―	―
BKY	46 Neutral	AU$234.30M	-45.08	-6.30%	―	―	-67.12%
STX	45 Neutral	AU$352.74M	-1.77	-42.02%	―	59.48%	-1714.71%

Origin Energy Limited Corporate Events

Origin Extends Eraring Power Station Operations to 2029 to Bolster NSW Grid

Origin Energy has announced it will extend the operation of all four units at its Eraring Power Station in New South Wales from August 2027 to 30 April 2029, in response to concerns from the Australian Energy Market Operator about system security during the energy transition. The company says the extension will help maintain reliable electricity supply for households and businesses while allowing more time for renewables, storage and transmission projects to come online, and it will avoid further major maintenance overhauls ahead of Eraring’s planned retirement. Origin maintains the move will not derail its 2030 emissions reduction targets or its net-zero 2050 ambition and will continue support programs for employees and local communities, including its Future Directions program and the $5 million Eraring Community Fund, underscoring a managed transition away from coal while preserving grid stability and stakeholder certainty.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Hold with a A$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Reports Lapse of 19,358 Share-Based Rights

Origin Energy Limited has notified the ASX that a total of 19,358 share-based rights, comprising performance share rights, share rights and restricted share rights, lapsed on 31 December 2025 after the conditions attached to these securities were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The cessation of these securities reflects the non-vesting of certain elements of Origin’s equity incentive arrangements and results in a small reduction in potential future share issuance, marginally limiting dilution for existing shareholders while signalling performance hurdles or service conditions that were not achieved under the relevant plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Sell with a A$11.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Issues Shares Following Conversion of Unquoted Equity Securities

Origin Energy Limited has notified the ASX of the issue of 5,260 ordinary fully paid shares following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted equity securities, effective 31 December 2025. The modest increase in share capital reflects the ongoing operation of employee or incentive-related equity arrangements and slightly expands the company’s issued capital base, with minimal immediate impact on overall ownership structure but continuing to align stakeholders through equity participation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Sell with a A$11.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Issues New Unquoted Share Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme

Origin Energy Limited has notified the market of the issue of 155,631 unquoted share rights under its employee incentive scheme, with an issue date of 16 October 2025. The move reflects the company’s ongoing use of equity-based remuneration to align employee interests with long-term shareholder value, modestly increasing potential share-based obligations without immediately affecting the publicly quoted share capital.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Sell with a A$11.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin backs US$1bn Kraken raise, retains 22.7% stake amid separation from Octopus

Origin Energy has announced a series of transactions supporting the first standalone capital raising for Kraken Technologies, with US$1 billion to be invested by new and existing shareholders, implying a standalone valuation for Kraken of US$8.65 billion and enabling its formal separation from Octopus Energy targeted for mid-2026. Origin will invest US$140 million in the round, retain an unchanged 22.7% economic interest in Kraken, secure an additional 1.5% equity in exchange for waiving its exclusivity to the Kraken platform in Australia, and maintain a 22.7% stake in Octopus Energy, while Kraken has also signed a major licensing deal with a leading energy retailer covering more than 10 million customer accounts, underscoring Kraken’s global technology leadership and long-term growth potential for Origin shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Hold with a A$12.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.