Origin Energy Limited (AU:ORG)
ASX:ORG
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Origin Energy Limited
(Sydney:ORG)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
AU$14.00
▲(13.09% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (revenue and margin expansion with a solid balance sheet), reinforced by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). Technicals remain supportive but are near overbought, and earnings-call positives (upgraded Energy Markets guidance and cash generation) are tempered by Octopus losses and gas/LNG and policy-related uncertainties.
Positive Factors
Revenue and margin recovery
Origin's large topline rebound and materially improved gross and net margins reflect durable operational leverage across generation, retail and gas. Sustained margin recovery indicates better cost management, stronger hedging and higher asset utilisation that should support earnings power over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Octopus investment-phase losses
Octopus's sizable H1 EBITDA loss reflects heavy upfront investment in international expansion, technology and customer acquisition. These growth costs can depress group profitability and require sustained capital support until scale and margin improvements materialise, extending cash conversion risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and margin recovery
Origin's large topline rebound and materially improved gross and net margins reflect durable operational leverage across generation, retail and gas. Sustained margin recovery indicates better cost management, stronger hedging and higher asset utilisation that should support earnings power over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Origin Energy Limited (ORG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$21.25B
Dividend Yield5.3%
Average Volume (3M)3.34M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.9
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth6.48%
EPS Growth6.25%
CountryAU
Employees5,000
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.34
Shares Outstanding1,722,747,700
10 Day Avg. Volume3,785,455
30 Day Avg. Volume3,339,156
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.03
Price to Book (P/B)1.87
Price to Sales (P/S)1.08
P/FCF Ratio-17.68
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$12.40Price Target Upside0.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$16.28B
Origin Energy Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Origin Energy Limited, an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas, and sale of liquefied natural gas in Australia and internation...
How the Company Makes Money
Origin makes money primarily by selling energy and related services, and by producing and marketing natural gas.
1) Energy retail (electricity and gas): Origin earns revenue from supplying electricity and natural gas to households and businesses ...
Origin Energy Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasizes strong operational and financial performance across core Australian businesses (Energy Markets and APLNG), notable customer growth, cash generation improvements and clear progress on battery/storage programs and strategic assets (Kraken/Octopus). At the same time, there are material near-term headwinds: Octopus EBITDA weakness driven by investment and seasonality, softer LNG prices/volumes and policy/exploration uncertainties for gas projects, plus caution around longer‑term battery revenue compression and a conservative dividend stance. Overall the positives (EBITDA outperformance, upgraded guidance for Energy Markets, robust cash flow and balance sheet strength, and meaningful strategic progress at Kraken/Octopus) outweigh the negatives, which are principally timing, policy and investment‑phase impacts.Positive Updates
Energy Markets EBITDA Beat and Upgrade
Energy Markets EBITDA of $860m (half) was higher-than-expected with a 17% increase in EBITDA for the segment; guidance for Energy Markets upgraded to $1.55bn–$1.75bn (from $1.4bn–$1.7bn). Electricity GP margins were above the stated $25–$40/MWh target (above ~$40/MWh for the half).
Negative Updates
Octopus EBITDA Loss and Investment Drag
Octopus recorded an EBITDA loss of $89m for the half. Lower EBITDA contribution driven by accelerated investment in client delivery, growth (non-U.K. expansion), a change in capitalization policy for technology development costs, and investment in smart tariffs and the expanded warm home discount scheme in the U.K. (seasonality and timing effects).
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Energy Markets EBITDA Beat and Upgrade
Energy Markets EBITDA of $860m (half) was higher-than-expected with a 17% increase in EBITDA for the segment; guidance for Energy Markets upgraded to $1.55bn–$1.75bn (from $1.4bn–$1.7bn). Electricity GP margins were above the stated $25–$40/MWh target (above ~$40/MWh for the half).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Origin upgraded Energy Markets EBITDA guidance to $1.55–$1.75bn (from $1.4–$1.7bn) while LNG trading and Octopus guidance remain unchanged; group CapEx is guided at $900m–$1.1bn and APLNG production is guided to 645–680 PJ with APLNG cash distributions to Origin of $700m–$950m and unit costs around $4.30/GJ. Key half‑year metrics: Energy Markets EBITDA $860m, Integrated Gas EBITDA $860m, Octopus EBITDA loss $89m, group underlying EBITDA $1,589m, statutory profit $557m, underlying profit $593m, adjusted free cash flow up $187m to $705m, adjusted net debt ~$4.59bn with net debt/adjusted EBITDA ~2x (bottom of 2–3x target), and an interim dividend of $0.30 fully franked (5.3% yield pre‑franking). Other guidance/program highlights include APLNG CapEx/OpEx unchanged, an expected FY26 tax paid of ~ $160m (net tax refund in H2), a 1.7 GW / 6.3 GWh battery program underway (Eraring Stage 1 online, $80m committed to Stage 2, >30 MW community batteries, Yanco Delta pre‑FID 1.5 GW) with target post‑tax IRRs of 8–11% (front end higher), Octopus additions of 1.2m customer accounts in the half (400k UK, 800k non‑UK; UK base 14.5m), Kraken look‑through valuation USD 8.65bn (USD 1bn raise, 90m contracted accounts), and Origin retaining a 22.7% economic interest in Kraken/Octopus.Origin Energy Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.32B | 17.12B | 15.98B | 16.38B | 14.38B | 11.88B |
| Gross Profit | 1.78B | 3.28B | 3.15B | 1.97B | 996.00M | 1.62B |
| EBITDA | 1.37B | 2.31B | 1.78B | 866.00M | -252.00M | -1.37B |
| Net Income | 1.02B | 1.48B | 1.40B | 1.05B | -1.43B | -2.28B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 20.10B | 20.99B | 20.45B | 18.95B | 24.02B | 21.31B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 852.00M | 1.01B | 1.38B | 930.00M | 1.48B | 975.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.72B | 4.84B | 3.38B | 3.26B | 3.39B | 5.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.37B | 11.07B | 10.96B | 10.04B | 14.00B | 11.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.74B | 9.92B | 9.49B | 8.89B | 10.00B | 9.46B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 766.00M | -1.05B | 461.00M | 576.00M | 2.46B | 521.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.77B | 425.00M | 1.11B | 1.05B | 2.80B | 860.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.27B | -870.00M | -16.00M | -608.00M | 390.00M | 106.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -543.00M | -19.00M | -953.00M | -579.00M | -3.04B | -1.73B |
Origin Energy Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
12.38
Price Trends
11.78
Positive
11.50
Positive
11.63
Positive
Market Momentum
0.19
Positive
55.78
Neutral
32.95
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ORG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.17, above the 50-day MA of 11.78, and above the 200-day MA of 11.63, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:ORG.
Origin Energy Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | AU$21.25B | 8.87 | 10.39% | 5.30% | 6.48% | 6.25% | |
66 Neutral | AU$13.22B | 36.03 | 6.91% | 6.26% | 4.61% | -90.28% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
54 Neutral | AU$6.51B | 16.66 | -2.11% | 5.17% | 5.96% | -113.79% | |
44 Neutral | AU$24.46M | -3.24 | -13.64% | ― | -8.52% | 13.51% | |
| ― | AU$16.52M | 0.06 | -31.05% | ― | ― | 91.54% | |
54 Neutral | AU$385.83M | 30.61 | 8.32% | 0.62% | 36.11% | -3.31% |
* Utilities Sector Average
AU:ORG
Origin Energy Limited
12.38
2.77
28.82%
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2.47
32.88%
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0.06
0.02
71.43%
AU:JNS
ReNu Energy Limited
0.14
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AU:LGI
LGI LTD
3.73
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34.66%
Origin Energy Limited Corporate Events
Origin Energy Director Increases Indirect Shareholding
Mar 27, 2026
Origin Energy has disclosed a change in the indirect shareholding of non‑executive director Nora Scheinkestel, as required under ASX listing rules. The update details an increase in her beneficial interest in fully paid ordinary shares held ...
Origin Energy Updates Interim Dividend Terms and DRP Pricing
Mar 19, 2026
Origin Energy has updated its notification of an interim dividend for ordinary fully paid shares relating to the six‑month period ending 31 December 2025, clarifying details tied to its dividend reinvestment plan pricing. The distribution, a...
Origin Energy director Stephen Mikkelsen acquires indirect stake in company shares
Mar 6, 2026
Origin Energy Limited has reported a change in director Stephen Mikkelsen’s relevant interests, disclosing that he has indirectly acquired 10,000 fully paid ordinary shares. The shares are held via Invia Custodian Pty Limited on behalf of th...
Origin CEO trims stake to meet tax bill, retains significant holding
Feb 22, 2026
Origin Energy has disclosed a change in the equity holdings of its director and chief executive, Frank Calabria, following the sale of a portion of his shares. The transactions were executed in line with the company’s Dealing in Securities P...
Origin Energy Issues 291 Unquoted Share Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Feb 20, 2026
Origin Energy Limited has notified the market of the issue of 291 unquoted share rights under its employee incentive scheme, effective 17 February 2026. The small-scale issuance, which will not be quoted on the ASX, reflects ongoing use of equity-...
Origin Extends Eraring Power Station Operations to 2029 to Bolster NSW Grid
Jan 19, 2026
Origin Energy has announced it will extend the operation of all four units at its Eraring Power Station in New South Wales from August 2027 to 30 April 2029, in response to concerns from the Australian Energy Market Operator about system security ...
Origin Energy Reports Lapse of 19,358 Share-Based Rights
Jan 14, 2026
Origin Energy Limited has notified the ASX that a total of 19,358 share-based rights, comprising performance share rights, share rights and restricted share rights, lapsed on 31 December 2025 after the conditions attached to these securities were ...
Origin Energy Issues Shares Following Conversion of Unquoted Equity Securities
Jan 14, 2026
Origin Energy Limited has notified the ASX of the issue of 5,260 ordinary fully paid shares following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted equity securities, effective 31 December 2025. The modest increase in share capital reflects th...
Origin Energy Issues New Unquoted Share Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Jan 14, 2026
Origin Energy Limited has notified the market of the issue of 155,631 unquoted share rights under its employee incentive scheme, with an issue date of 16 October 2025. The move reflects the company’s ongoing use of equity-based remuneration ...
Origin backs US$1bn Kraken raise, retains 22.7% stake amid separation from Octopus
Dec 29, 2025
Origin Energy has announced a series of transactions supporting the first standalone capital raising for Kraken Technologies, with US$1 billion to be invested by new and existing shareholders, implying a standalone valuation for Kraken of US$8.65 ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.