Origin Energy Limited (ORG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $18.63B
• Dividend Yield: 5.53%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.50M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.26
• Revenue Growth: 8.09%
• EPS Growth: -13.99%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 5,000
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 51
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 0.54
• Shares Outstanding: 1,722,747,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,893,269
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,501,640
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.64
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $10.68
• Price Target Upside: -1.54% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 70 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$11.50 ▲(5.99%Upside)

Origin Energy Limited scores a 69.9, driven by its strong financial recovery and attractive valuation. The company has improved profitability and maintains a stable financial position, despite some challenges in cash flow growth. Technical analysis suggests a neutral market sentiment, which slightly tempers the overall score.

Origin Energy Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Origin Energy Limited, an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas, and sale of liquefied natural gas in Australia and internationally. The company operates through, Energy Markets, Integrated Gas, and Corporate segments. Its exploration and production portfolio includes the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland; the Browse basin in Western Australia; and the Beetaloo basin in the Northern Territory. The company also generates electricity from coal, wind, pumped water storage, solar, and cogeneration plants; sells electricity, natural gas, and LPG; provides GreenPower and green gas products; and supplies LPG to residentials and businesses. In addition, it offers electric and gas hot water systems; split system air conditioners; ducted and space heating solutions; ducted evaporative cooling systems; and ducted reverse cycle air conditioning systems. Origin Energy Limited was incorporated in 1946 and is based in Barangaroo, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Origin Energy Limited generates revenue through several key streams. The company earns income from the sale of electricity and natural gas to both residential and commercial customers through its retail division. Additionally, it generates revenue from its power generation assets, which include both traditional and renewable energy sources. Origin also has significant investments in natural gas exploration and production, contributing to its earnings through the sale of gas both domestically and internationally. Partnerships, such as those with other energy companies for exploration and development projects, also play a role in its revenue generation. Factors such as energy market prices, regulatory environment, and customer demand significantly influence its financial performance.

Origin Energy Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Origin Energy demonstrates a strong recovery with improved profitability and operational efficiency. The gross and net profit margins have increased, signaling effective cost management. The balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage and healthy equity. However, cash flow presents mixed results, with a decline in free cash flow despite robust operating cash generation.

Income Statement

Origin Energy has demonstrated significant recovery and growth in profitability over the last couple of years. The gross profit margin improved from 18.5% to 20.7% in the latest year, indicative of effective cost management. Net profit margin also increased to 8.6% from a negative percentage two years prior, highlighting a turnaround in core operations. Although revenue slightly decreased by 1.2% year-over-year, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved significantly, reaching 13.6% and 11.0% respectively, signaling strong operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a stable financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.36, reflecting moderate leverage, which is manageable within the industry norms. Return on equity improved to 14.7%, showcasing enhanced profitability. The equity ratio is solid at 46.4%, suggesting a healthy capital structure with a substantial proportion of assets financed by equity.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a mixed picture. While free cash flow decreased by 20% compared to the previous year, operating cash flow remains robust at AUD 1.11 billion, with a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.80. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.33 suggests some room for improvement in cash conversion from net profits.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	16.96B	15.98B	16.38B	14.38B	11.88B	12.93B
Gross Profit	3.40B	3.15B	1.97B	996.00M	1.62B	2.20B
EBITDA	1.39B	1.78B	866.00M	-252.00M	-1.37B	396.00M
Net Income	1.42B	1.40B	1.05B	-1.43B	-2.28B	83.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	20.82B	20.45B	18.95B	24.02B	21.31B	25.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	895.00M	1.38B	930.00M	1.48B	975.00M	1.72B
Total Debt	4.15B	3.38B	3.26B	3.39B	5.23B	6.85B
Total Liabilities	10.48B	10.96B	10.04B	14.00B	11.83B	12.39B
Stockholders Equity	10.34B	9.49B	8.89B	10.00B	9.46B	12.68B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-16.00M	461.00M	576.00M	2.46B	521.00M	356.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.16B	1.11B	1.05B	2.80B	860.00M	856.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.34B	-16.00M	-608.00M	390.00M	106.00M	663.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-367.00M	-953.00M	-579.00M	-3.04B	-1.73B	-1.82B

Origin Energy Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 10.85
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ORG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.85, above the 50-day MA of 10.77, and above the 200-day MA of 10.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.12 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:ORG.

Origin Energy Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ORG	70 Neutral	$18.63B	13.15	14.75%	5.53%	8.09%	-13.99%
Sector *	52 Neutral	C$2.91B	-0.88	-3.26%	6.30%	2.20%	-43.43%
BKY		£118.88M	244.17	1.19%	―	―	―
BEPTF		$1.94B	31.60	2.70%	4.40%	―	―
STOSF		$16.23B	13.26	7.94%	4.14%	―	―
STX	45 Neutral	AU$387.03M	57.35	-4.01%	―	801.92%	-985.71%
TBN	35 Underperform	AU$377.52M	―	-10.88%	―	―	56.73%

Origin Energy Limited Corporate Events

Origin Energy Updates FY25 Guidance with Mixed Outlook

Origin Energy Limited has updated its FY25 guidance, projecting its Energy Markets Underlying EBITDA to be between $1,300 – $1,400 million, an increase from the previous range due to operational improvements and favorable market conditions. However, its share of Octopus Energy’s FY25 Underlying EBITDA is expected to incur a loss of up to $100 million, influenced by warm weather in the UK and ongoing investments in energy services and non-UK markets, despite strong growth in customer numbers.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$12.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Concludes Sinopec LNG Price Review

Origin Energy Limited has announced the conclusion of a price review for its long-term LNG supply contract with Sinopec, resulting in a reduction in the JCC-linked contract slope effective from January 2025. This adjustment is expected to decrease Origin’s share of Australia Pacific LNG’s Underlying EBITDA by $55 million for the second half of FY25, although there is no change to the FY25 guidance for Integrated Gas. The contract, which ends in December 2035, includes one final price review in 2030.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$12.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Issues Unquoted Share Rights for Employee Incentive

Origin Energy Limited announced the issuance of 254 unquoted share rights as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move is aimed at enhancing employee engagement and aligning their interests with the company’s long-term goals, potentially impacting the company’s operational dynamics and stakeholder relations.

Origin Energy Reports on March 2025 Quarter Performance

Origin Energy’s March 2025 Quarterly Report highlights a decrease in Australia Pacific LNG revenue due to lower LNG volumes and prices, though production remains consistent with expectations. The Energy Markets segment saw a rise in electricity and gas sales, with significant progress in renewable energy projects, including the Yanco Delta Wind Farm. Octopus Energy expanded its customer base significantly, reinforcing its position as the largest energy retailer in the UK. The report underscores Origin’s strategic focus on enhancing its renewable energy portfolio and maintaining reliable energy supply.

Origin Energy Announces Cessation of Share Rights

Origin Energy Limited announced the cessation of 9,655 share rights due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions were not met or became unachievable by March 31, 2025. This announcement may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders regarding the company’s operational and strategic decisions.