Origin Energy Limited (ORG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$20.26B
• Dividend Yield: 5.3%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.34M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.50
• Revenue Growth: 6.48%
• EPS Growth: 6.25%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 5,000
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 1,722,747,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,785,455
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,339,156
• PEG Ratio: 2.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.87
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.08
• P/FCF Ratio: -17.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$12.21
• Price Target Upside: 3.48% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$12.00 ▲(1.69% Upside)

Origin Energy Limited shows strong financial performance with robust revenue and profit growth, though cash flow management needs attention. The stock's valuation is reasonable with an attractive dividend yield. Technical indicators suggest neutral momentum but potential overbought conditions.

Positive Factors

Diversified integrated business model

Origin’s mix of retail, generation, gas sales, LNG exposure and renewables partnerships creates multiple durable revenue engines. This diversification reduces reliance on any single market, smoothing cash flows and supporting long-term investment through the energy transition.

Strong recent revenue and margin improvement

Large top-line growth combined with higher gross and net margins indicates sustained operational improvements and pricing/power to manage costs. Higher margins boost free cash generation potential and provide capacity to fund capex, dividends and renewables over the medium term.

Solid balance sheet and improved ROE

Stable leverage and a rising ROE reflect prudent capital management and stronger returns on shareholder capital. A solid capital structure affords financing flexibility for projects, lowers refinancing risk and supports strategic investments without excessive strain on balance sheet health.

Negative Factors

Negative free cash flow in latest year

A shift to negative free cash flow undermines the company’s ability to self-fund capex, pay down debt or sustain distributions without external financing. Persisting cash conversion weakness raises risk around liquidity and constrains strategic flexibility over the coming months.

Ongoing fossil-fuel exposure and transition risk

Significant exposure to fossil fuel assets and gas/LNG creates structural transition risk as policy, carbon costs and demand shift toward low-carbon sources. Managing asset retirement, regulatory compliance and capital redeployment will pressure long-term returns and require sustained investment.

Earnings exposed to commodity and LNG market volatility

Material involvement in gas sales, LNG exports and energy trading ties profitability to volatile commodity and global LNG markets. Price swings and contract dynamics can materially compress margins and cash flow, creating persistent earnings variability for investors and management planning.

Origin Energy Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Origin Energy Limited, an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas, and sale of liquefied natural gas in Australia and internationally. The company operates through, Energy Markets, Integrated Gas, and Corporate segments. Its exploration and production portfolio includes the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland; the Browse basin in Western Australia; and the Beetaloo basin in the Northern Territory. The company also generates electricity from coal, wind, pumped water storage, solar, and cogeneration plants; sells electricity, natural gas, and LPG; provides GreenPower and green gas products; and supplies LPG to residentials and businesses. In addition, it offers electric and gas hot water systems; split system air conditioners; ducted and space heating solutions; ducted evaporative cooling systems; and ducted reverse cycle air conditioning systems. Origin Energy Limited was incorporated in 1946 and is based in Barangaroo, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Origin Energy generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary source is its energy retail business, which sells electricity and gas to residential and commercial customers. Additionally, the company derives income from its energy generation segment, which includes a mix of fossil fuel-based and renewable energy sources. Significant revenue also comes from the sale of natural gas, both domestically and through exports, particularly from its investments in LNG projects. Origin has established partnerships with various solar companies and renewable energy projects, enhancing its portfolio and market presence. Moreover, the company participates in energy trading, which allows it to capitalize on fluctuations in energy prices, contributing further to its earnings.

Origin Energy Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Origin Energy Limited demonstrates strong revenue and profit growth, supported by improved margins and a stable balance sheet. However, the recent negative free cash flow is a concern, indicating a need for better cash flow management.

Income Statement

Origin Energy Limited has shown strong revenue growth with a 90.2% increase in the latest year, indicating robust top-line expansion. The gross profit margin improved to 19.2%, reflecting effective cost management. Net profit margin also increased to 8.7%, showcasing enhanced profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved, indicating operational efficiency gains.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has remained stable, indicating a balanced approach to leverage. Return on equity improved to 14.7%, reflecting strong profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio suggests a solid capital structure with a significant portion of assets financed by equity.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has decreased, but the company has managed to maintain a positive free cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The significant growth in free cash flow is a positive sign, although the negative free cash flow in the latest year is a concern.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.20B	17.12B	15.98B	16.38B	14.38B	11.88B
Gross Profit	2.65B	3.28B	3.15B	1.97B	996.00M	1.62B
EBITDA	1.50B	2.31B	1.78B	866.00M	-252.00M	-1.37B
Net Income	1.48B	1.48B	1.40B	1.05B	-1.43B	-2.28B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	20.99B	20.99B	20.45B	18.95B	24.02B	21.31B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.01B	1.01B	1.38B	930.00M	1.48B	975.00M
Total Debt	4.84B	4.84B	3.38B	3.26B	3.39B	5.23B
Total Liabilities	11.07B	11.07B	10.96B	10.04B	14.00B	11.83B
Stockholders Equity	9.92B	9.92B	9.49B	8.89B	10.00B	9.46B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-903.00M	-1.05B	461.00M	576.00M	2.46B	521.00M
Operating Cash Flow	498.00M	425.00M	1.11B	1.05B	2.80B	860.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.69B	-870.00M	-16.00M	-608.00M	390.00M	106.00M
Financing Cash Flow	175.00M	-19.00M	-953.00M	-579.00M	-3.04B	-1.73B

Origin Energy Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 11.80
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ORG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.38, above the 50-day MA of 11.49, and above the 200-day MA of 11.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:ORG.

Origin Energy Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ORG	71 Outperform	AU$20.26B	13.69	15.06%	5.30%	6.48%	6.25%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
STO	65 Neutral	AU$22.72B	14.01	6.59%	6.00%	-5.81%	-17.90%
BPT	60 Neutral	$2.80B	-64.06	-1.02%	7.72%	17.16%	90.79%
TBN	52 Neutral	AU$970.18M	-11.56	-14.41%	―	―	―
STX	50 Neutral	AU$395.93M	-2.00	-42.02%	―	59.48%	-1714.71%
BKY	46 Neutral	AU$254.39M	-46.72	-6.30%	―	―	-67.12%

Origin Energy Limited Corporate Events

Origin Energy Reports Lapse of 19,358 Share-Based Rights

Origin Energy Limited has notified the ASX that a total of 19,358 share-based rights, comprising performance share rights, share rights and restricted share rights, lapsed on 31 December 2025 after the conditions attached to these securities were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The cessation of these securities reflects the non-vesting of certain elements of Origin’s equity incentive arrangements and results in a small reduction in potential future share issuance, marginally limiting dilution for existing shareholders while signalling performance hurdles or service conditions that were not achieved under the relevant plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Sell with a A$11.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Issues Shares Following Conversion of Unquoted Equity Securities

Origin Energy Limited has notified the ASX of the issue of 5,260 ordinary fully paid shares following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted equity securities, effective 31 December 2025. The modest increase in share capital reflects the ongoing operation of employee or incentive-related equity arrangements and slightly expands the company’s issued capital base, with minimal immediate impact on overall ownership structure but continuing to align stakeholders through equity participation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Sell with a A$11.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Issues New Unquoted Share Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme

Origin Energy Limited has notified the market of the issue of 155,631 unquoted share rights under its employee incentive scheme, with an issue date of 16 October 2025. The move reflects the company’s ongoing use of equity-based remuneration to align employee interests with long-term shareholder value, modestly increasing potential share-based obligations without immediately affecting the publicly quoted share capital.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Sell with a A$11.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin backs US$1bn Kraken raise, retains 22.7% stake amid separation from Octopus

Origin Energy has announced a series of transactions supporting the first standalone capital raising for Kraken Technologies, with US$1 billion to be invested by new and existing shareholders, implying a standalone valuation for Kraken of US$8.65 billion and enabling its formal separation from Octopus Energy targeted for mid-2026. Origin will invest US$140 million in the round, retain an unchanged 22.7% economic interest in Kraken, secure an additional 1.5% equity in exchange for waiving its exclusivity to the Kraken platform in Australia, and maintain a 22.7% stake in Octopus Energy, while Kraken has also signed a major licensing deal with a leading energy retailer covering more than 10 million customer accounts, underscoring Kraken’s global technology leadership and long-term growth potential for Origin shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Hold with a A$12.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Announces Director’s Interest Change

Origin Energy Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically involving Frank Calabria. The change, effective from October 15, 2025, involves the acquisition of 123,457 Performance Share Rights and 123,457 Restricted Share Rights. This update reflects the company’s ongoing adjustments in its executive shareholding structure, which may impact its corporate governance and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$13.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.

Origin Energy Issues Unquoted Equity Securities for Employee Incentive

Origin Energy Limited announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities, specifically performance share rights and restricted share rights, as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move is likely aimed at aligning employee interests with company performance, potentially enhancing operational efficiency and stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ORG) stock is a Buy with a A$13.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Energy Limited stock, see the AU:ORG Stock Forecast page.