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Sandfire Resources Limited (AU:SFR)
ASX:SFR
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Sandfire Resources Limited (SFR) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:SFR

Sandfire Resources Limited

(Sydney:SFR)

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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
AU$17.00
▲(4.68% Upside)
Sandfire Resources Limited demonstrates strong financial performance and operational resilience, as highlighted in the earnings call. The technical indicators support a positive trend, although the high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation. The company's ability to manage external challenges effectively contributes positively to its overall score.

Sandfire Resources Limited (SFR) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Sandfire Resources Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSandfire Resources Limited, a mining company, engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral tenements and projects. It primarily explores for copper, gold, silver, lead, and zinc deposits. The company owns a 100% interest in the DeGrussa copper operations located in the Bryah Basin mineral province of Western Australia; a 100% interest in the Minas De Aguas Teñidas (MATSA) Copper operations that comprise three underground mines situated in the Huelva Province of south-western Spain; and an 87% interest in the Black Butte copper project located in central Montana, the United States. It also holds interests in the Motheo copper project situated in the Kalahari Copper Belt in Botswana. Sandfire Resources Limited was incorporated in 2003 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneySandfire Resources generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of copper concentrates, which contain copper, gold, and silver. The company sells its copper concentrate to various customers, including smelters and traders, often under long-term contracts, ensuring a steady income stream. In addition to copper, the company also benefits from the sale of gold and silver extracted during the processing of copper ore. Key revenue streams include sales from the DeGrussa mine, contributions from exploration projects, and potential partnerships or joint ventures that may enhance its resource base and production capabilities. Sandfire's strategic focus on sustainable mining practices and efficient operations also plays a vital role in maintaining profitability and attracting investment.

Sandfire Resources Limited Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 27, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong operational performance and financial outcomes, despite facing significant external challenges. The company managed to maintain production near guidance levels and achieved substantial reductions in net debt. However, there were concerns about increased injury frequency and rising costs due to currency exchange rates and operational challenges.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Near-Guidance Copper Production Despite Challenges
Despite facing significant challenges such as record rainfall, a major power outage in Spain, and a generational rain event in Botswana, Sandfire Resources delivered 152,400 tonnes of copper equivalent production, only 1% below the full-year guidance.
Strong Performance at MATSA and Motheo
MATSA achieved a total copper equivalent production of 94,100 tonnes in FY '25, with an anticipated increase to approximately 96,000 tonnes in FY '26 (2% increase). Motheo achieved record quarterly copper equivalent production of 16,400 tonnes in Q4, with year-on-year growth of 29%.
Impressive Financial Outcomes
Sandfire Resources achieved a group sales revenue of $1.2 billion, an underlying EBITDA of $528 million, and a $273 million reduction in net debt across FY '25, including $120 million in Q4 alone.
Exploration Success at Black Butte
The 2024-25 exploration program confirmed the extension of high-grade mineralization in the Johnny Lee lower copper zone at Black Butte, positioning the company to define the optimal pathway to realize value from the project.
Negative Updates
Increase in Group TRIF
The Group TRIF (Total Recordable Injury Frequency) increased to 1.7 at the end of the June quarter, a modest but disappointing increase from the previous year.
Cost Pressures at MATSA and Motheo
Strength in the euro to U.S. dollar exchange rate has started to impact MATSA, with unit costs expected to remain well controlled in local currency terms. At Motheo, unit costs are projected to increase by 10% in FY '26 due to commercial production at the A4 open pit and increased haulage and handling costs.
Exchange Rate Impact on Costs
The sustained strength in the euro to U.S. dollar exchange rate has started to create upward pressure on costs at MATSA, with around 90% of costs being euro denominated.
Company Guidance
In the June 2025 quarterly report call, Sandfire Resources provided guidance on various metrics for FY '25 and FY '26. The company reported a total copper equivalent production of 152,400 tonnes, falling just 1% short of the full-year guidance, despite challenges like record rainfall and power outages. At MATSA, copper equivalent production was 94,100 tonnes, with expectations for FY '26 set at 96,000 tonnes, a 2% increase. Motheo achieved a record quarterly production of 16,400 tonnes in Q4, totaling 58,300 tonnes for FY '25, marking a 29% year-on-year increase. The company anticipates a 3% growth in copper equivalent production at Motheo in FY '26. Sandfire highlighted unit costs of $78 per tonne at MATSA and $40 per tonne at Motheo for FY '25, with a forecasted increase at Motheo due to the A4 open pit reaching commercial production. The company also reported unaudited group sales revenue of $1.2 billion, an underlying EBITDA of $528 million, and a net debt reduction of $273 million for the fiscal year.

Sandfire Resources Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Sandfire Resources Limited presents a solid financial position with strong revenue growth and efficient cash flow management. The company benefits from low leverage and a robust equity base, although there is potential to enhance net profitability. The financial statements reflect a well-managed company with a positive growth trajectory in the copper industry.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Sandfire Resources Limited has demonstrated strong revenue growth of 25.88% in the latest period, recovering from previous declines. The company maintains a high gross profit margin of 101.31%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 7.87%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 18.95% and 45.53%, respectively, reflecting solid operational performance.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's balance sheet shows a favorable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.14, indicating low leverage and financial stability. The return on equity (ROE) is modest at 5.22%, suggesting moderate efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio stands at 62.31%, highlighting a strong equity base relative to total assets.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Sandfire Resources Limited exhibits impressive free cash flow growth of 272.34%, showcasing robust cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.39, indicating efficient conversion of income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also healthy at 0.64, reflecting good cash flow management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue941.67M1.19B921.57M1.16B1.42B771.83M
Gross Profit287.42M1.20B917.78M-40.98M435.96M236.40M
EBITDA354.55M539.76M358.32M397.19M628.87M338.73M
Net Income-19.67M93.25M-17.35M-76.68M153.66M172.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.00B2.87B3.00B4.75B4.93B1.19B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments183.34M110.67M183.34M213.23M673.44M574.51M
Total Debt582.58M253.24M582.58M896.25M1.18B12.77M
Total Liabilities1.33B1.09B1.33B2.14B2.51B278.73M
Stockholders Equity1.67B1.79B1.67B2.61B2.42B907.83M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow90.55M337.16M66.18M-372.25M252.22M346.39M
Operating Cash Flow316.95M523.71M292.01M113.86M536.68M465.23M
Investing Cash Flow-220.27M-185.65M-219.73M-442.24M-2.25B-131.10M
Financing Cash Flow-55.82M-411.19M-86.42M-125.41M1.78B-56.95M

Sandfire Resources Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price16.24
Price Trends
50DMA
14.07
Positive
100DMA
12.70
Positive
200DMA
11.61
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.54
Positive
RSI
62.72
Neutral
STOCH
79.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:SFR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.85, above the 50-day MA of 14.07, and above the 200-day MA of 11.61, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:SFR.

Sandfire Resources Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$7.48B51.855.39%30.33%
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
AU$1.49B-279.47-4.85%-17.57%
AU$107.83M-3.84-29.41%281.37%2.27%
€106.16M-73.21%-11.29%
AU$84.35M-1.84-57.00%-1789.13%
AU$173.81M-4.91%-20.00%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:SFR
Sandfire Resources Limited
16.24
5.91
57.21%
AU:HCH
Hot Chili Limited
0.98
0.14
17.22%
AU:HGO
Hillgrove Resources Limited
0.04
-0.02
-33.33%
AU:CVV
Caravel Minerals Limited
0.19
0.02
15.62%
AU:WA1
WA1 Resources Ltd
16.69
2.93
21.29%
AU:AR1
Austral Resources Australia Limited
0.16
0.00
0.00%

Sandfire Resources Limited Corporate Events

Sandfire Resources to Release September 2025 Quarterly Report
Oct 13, 2025

Sandfire Resources Limited has announced that its September 2025 Quarterly Report will be released on October 27, 2025. The company will host a teleconference to discuss the report, highlighting its ongoing commitment to transparency and communication with stakeholders. This announcement underscores Sandfire’s proactive approach in keeping investors informed about its operational progress and market strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SFR) stock is a Sell with a A$14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sandfire Resources Limited stock, see the AU:SFR Stock Forecast page.

Sandfire Resources Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
Oct 6, 2025

Sandfire Resources Limited has announced the quotation of 1,636,175 fully paid ordinary securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). This development follows the exercise of options or conversion of other convertible securities, potentially impacting the company’s capital structure and market presence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SFR) stock is a Hold with a A$13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sandfire Resources Limited stock, see the AU:SFR Stock Forecast page.

Australian Retirement Trust Ceases Substantial Holding in Sandfire Resources
Oct 6, 2025

Sandfire Resources Limited has announced that Australian Retirement Trust Pty Ltd has ceased to be a substantial holder in the company as of October 2, 2025. This change in substantial holding could impact the company’s shareholder structure and influence its market positioning, potentially affecting stakeholders’ interests and the company’s strategic decisions moving forward.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SFR) stock is a Hold with a A$13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sandfire Resources Limited stock, see the AU:SFR Stock Forecast page.

Sandfire Resources Announces Hybrid Format for 2025 AGM
Oct 1, 2025

Sandfire Resources Limited has announced its 2025 Annual General Meeting (AGM) will be held as a hybrid event, allowing shareholders to participate either in person or via a live webcast. The AGM is scheduled for October 31, 2025, at the Parmelia Hilton in Perth, Western Australia. This approach reflects Sandfire’s commitment to accessibility and shareholder engagement, ensuring stakeholders can participate in the governance process regardless of their location. The company has made meeting documents available online and provided detailed instructions for voting and participation, emphasizing its focus on transparency and modern communication methods.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SFR) stock is a Buy with a A$12.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sandfire Resources Limited stock, see the AU:SFR Stock Forecast page.

Sandfire Resources Announces Cessation of Securities
Sep 4, 2025

Sandfire Resources Limited announced the cessation of 34,458 securities due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions for these securities were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This announcement may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for its stakeholders, reflecting a potential shift in its financial strategy or operational focus.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SFR) stock is a Hold with a A$13.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sandfire Resources Limited stock, see the AU:SFR Stock Forecast page.

Sandfire Resources Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities
Sep 4, 2025

Sandfire Resources Limited has announced the application for the quotation of 79,229 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) as of September 1, 2025. These securities are issued under an employee incentive scheme and are not subject to transfer restrictions, indicating a strategic move to enhance employee engagement and potentially improve operational performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SFR) stock is a Hold with a A$13.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sandfire Resources Limited stock, see the AU:SFR Stock Forecast page.

Sandfire Resources Schedules 2025 AGM and Director Nomination Deadline
Sep 4, 2025

Sandfire Resources Limited has announced the date for its 2025 Annual General Meeting (AGM), which will be held on Friday, 31 October 2025 at 10:00 AM AWST. The deadline for director nominations is set for Friday, 12 September 2025. Further details will be provided in the Notice of Meeting to be shared with shareholders and lodged with the ASX.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SFR) stock is a Hold with a A$13.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sandfire Resources Limited stock, see the AU:SFR Stock Forecast page.

Sandfire Resources Earnings Call: Resilience Amid Challenges
Sep 1, 2025

Sandfire Resources Limited’s recent earnings call revealed a robust operational and financial performance, despite facing external challenges. The company successfully maintained production levels close to guidance and achieved significant debt reduction. However, there were concerns regarding increased injury frequency and rising costs due to currency exchange rates and operational hurdles.

Sandfire Resources Reports Strong FY25 Performance
Aug 28, 2025

Sandfire Resources Limited, an Australian mining company, is a significant global producer of copper, operating primarily in the Iberian Pyrite and Kalahari Copper Belts with a focus on sustainable mining practices. In its latest earnings report, Sandfire highlighted a strong operational and financial performance for FY25, achieving a 12% increase in Group Copper Equivalent Production to 152.4kt and a 26% rise in sales revenue to $1,176M. The company also reported a significant reduction in net debt by $273M, reflecting its robust cash-generating capabilities. Key strategic initiatives included the successful ramp-up of operations at Motheo and MATSA, enhanced exploration efforts, and a commitment to sustainability with 71% of electricity sourced from renewables. Looking ahead, Sandfire aims to further strengthen its financial position and increase production, supported by its strategic processing hubs and a disciplined approach to capital management.

Sandfire Resources Releases FY25 Financial Results
Aug 28, 2025

Sandfire Resources Limited has released its FY25 financial results presentation, highlighting its operational and financial performance. The presentation, which includes unaudited information and non-IFRS measures, provides insights into the company’s core business performance and financial health, excluding non-recurring events. This release is significant for stakeholders as it outlines Sandfire’s approach to financial reporting and performance assessment, which could impact investment decisions and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SFR) stock is a Hold with a A$12.55 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sandfire Resources Limited stock, see the AU:SFR Stock Forecast page.

Sandfire Resources Releases 2025 Corporate Governance Statement
Aug 28, 2025

Sandfire Resources Limited has released its corporate governance statement for the financial year ending June 30, 2025, which is available on their website. The statement outlines the company’s adherence to the ASX Corporate Governance Council’s principles and recommendations, highlighting their commitment to transparency and accountability in management and oversight. This announcement underscores Sandfire’s dedication to maintaining robust governance practices, which is crucial for its operational integrity and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SFR) stock is a Hold with a A$12.55 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sandfire Resources Limited stock, see the AU:SFR Stock Forecast page.

Sandfire Resources Reports Strong FY25 Financial Results
Aug 28, 2025

Sandfire Resources Ltd reported a significant increase in its financial performance for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, with a 26% rise in revenue from ordinary activities and a notable increase in net profit attributable to members. Despite the positive financial results, the company did not declare any dividends for the period. The announcement reflects Sandfire’s improved operational efficiency and market positioning, signaling a recovery from previous losses and a strengthened financial foundation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SFR) stock is a Hold with a A$12.55 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sandfire Resources Limited stock, see the AU:SFR Stock Forecast page.

Sandfire Resources Updates Motheo Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve Estimates
Aug 27, 2025

Sandfire Resources Ltd has updated its Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve estimates for the Motheo asset in Botswana, reflecting a decrease in contained copper and silver due to mining depletion and remodelling of deposits. The company aims to enhance its understanding of the geological controls in the region, with plans to declare a maiden Ore Reserve estimate for the A1 deposit by June 2026, indicating a strategic focus on extending the life of the Motheo operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SFR) stock is a Hold with a A$12.55 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sandfire Resources Limited stock, see the AU:SFR Stock Forecast page.

Sandfire Resources to Announce FY25 Financial Results
Aug 8, 2025

Sandfire Resources Limited has announced that it will release its financial results for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, on August 28, 2025. The company will hold a teleconference and webcast on the same day to discuss the results, indicating a transparent communication approach with stakeholders and potentially impacting investor confidence and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SFR) stock is a Buy with a A$9.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sandfire Resources Limited stock, see the AU:SFR Stock Forecast page.

Sandfire Resources Reports Strong FY25 Results Amid Operational Challenges
Jul 28, 2025

Sandfire Resources Limited reported a 12% increase in Group Copper Equivalent production for FY25, despite challenges such as record rainfall and power outages. The company achieved strong operational results with a focus on cost discipline and strategic investments in exploration. Sandfire’s net debt decreased significantly, and the company forecasts further production growth in FY26, although unit costs are expected to rise due to currency fluctuations and operational expansions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SFR) stock is a Buy with a A$9.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sandfire Resources Limited stock, see the AU:SFR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 23, 2025