Sandfire Resources Limited (AU:SFR)
ASX:SFR
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Sandfire Resources Limited
(Sydney:SFR)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
AU$19.50
▲(7.03% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/20/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong revenue growth, robust free cash flow generation, and low leverage). Offsetting this, technical indicators point to weak near-term momentum with the price below major moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation appears reasonable based on a P/E of 13.97.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Exceptional free cash flow growth and strong conversion of income into cash provide durable internal funding for sustaining and growth capex, reduce reliance on external financing, and increase resilience through cyclical commodity periods. This supports project development and shareholder returns over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Modest net profitability & ROE
Despite strong top-line and operational margins, low net margin and modest ROE indicate substantial non-operating costs, depreciation or tax impacts that limit retained earnings. Over months, this constrains capacity to boost shareholder returns or self-fund large new projects relative to peers.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Exceptional free cash flow growth and strong conversion of income into cash provide durable internal funding for sustaining and growth capex, reduce reliance on external financing, and increase resilience through cyclical commodity periods. This supports project development and shareholder returns over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Sandfire Resources Limited (SFR) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$8.45B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.51M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.9
Beta (1Y)1.86
Revenue Growth30.33%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryAU
Employees1,236
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.33
Shares Outstanding466,584,720
10 Day Avg. Volume1,719,412
30 Day Avg. Volume1,508,210
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.09
Price to Book (P/B)2.86
Price to Sales (P/S)4.32
P/FCF Ratio15.18
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$19.10Price Target Upside4.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.74
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.56B
Sandfire Resources Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sandfire Resources Limited, a mining company, engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral tenements and projects. It primarily explores for copper, gold, silver, lead, and zinc deposits. The company owns a 100% interest in t...
How the Company Makes Money
Sandfire primarily makes money by producing and selling copper (its main product) from its mining operations. Revenue is generated when mined ore is processed into saleable copper products (such as concentrate and/or refined metal, depending on th...
Sandfire Resources Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed a positive strategic and financial position: strong quarterly revenue and EBITDA, meaningful degearing (net debt reduction of $301 million) and a targeted net cash position were highlighted, alongside disciplined unit costs and active exploration and M&A progress (Kalkaroo term sheet, Black Butte PFS). Operational challenges at Motheo (OEM SAG mill component failure, lower fleet availability and temporary shipment timing effects) weighed on H1 production but management described remedial actions as completed or well advanced and expects an uplift in H2. Near-term cash commitments related to the Havilah transaction were flagged as reducing the reported net cash headroom. On balance, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights given resolved operational issues, strong financial metrics and clear strategic optionality.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Financial Results
Unaudited group sales revenue of $344 million and underlying EBITDA of $167 million for the December quarter, implying an EBITDA margin just under 50% (~48.6%).
Negative Updates
Softer Start at Motheo and Production Sensitivity
Motheo had a softer H1 than expected: ore processed was ~7% below the 5.6 Mtpa annualized processing rate for the quarter, contributing to lower grades presented to the plant and reduced metal production early in the year. Management indicated volumes are now more weighted to H2 (i.e., H1 was ~46% of guidance midpoint for the group).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Financial Results
Unaudited group sales revenue of $344 million and underlying EBITDA of $167 million for the December quarter, implying an EBITDA margin just under 50% (~48.6%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated unchanged FY‑26 guidance while flagging H1 operational and financial metrics: group copper‑equivalent production of 72,100 t (≈46% of the midpoint of the 157,000 t annual guidance) with volumes expected to be more weighted to H2; Motheo is forecast at 61,000 t Cu‑eq for FY‑26 and delivered part of the H1 volumes, MATSA produced 46,400 t in H1 (≈48% of its midpoint); underlying operating costs remain aligned with guidance at $87/t ore processed (MATSA) and $43/t (Motheo) (Motheo UOC expected to rise slightly in H2), capital expenditure guidance unchanged, C1 costs are receiving a material benefit from higher by‑product prices, and only three concentrate shipments sailed in Q2 with a fourth departing in early January; safety TRIF improved to 1.3 (from 1.4), December quarter sales were $344m for underlying EBITDA of $167m (~50% margin) and net cash was $13m at 31 Dec (after reducing net debt by $301m over 12 months), noting near‑term cash commitments of A$31.5m (completion) plus A$15m (initial exploration payment) for the proposed Havilah/Kalkaroo arrangement; additionally, the Johnny Lee PFS shows a post‑tax NPV of ~US$100m at below‑spot copper and an initial ~8‑year life with the Lowry deposit able to materially extend mine life.Sandfire Resources Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
75
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.62B | 1.19B | 921.57M | 1.16B | 1.42B | 771.83M |
| Gross Profit | 763.36M | 1.20B | 917.78M | -40.98M | 435.96M | 236.40M |
| EBITDA | 743.38M | 539.76M | 358.32M | 397.19M | 565.76M | 384.43M |
| Net Income | 164.65M | 93.25M | -17.35M | -76.68M | 153.66M | 172.39M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.90B | 2.87B | 3.00B | 4.75B | 4.93B | 1.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 137.31M | 110.67M | 183.34M | 213.23M | 673.44M | 574.51M |
| Total Debt | 153.07M | 253.24M | 582.58M | 896.25M | 1.18B | 12.77M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.00B | 1.09B | 1.33B | 2.14B | 2.51B | 278.73M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.90B | 1.79B | 1.67B | 2.61B | 2.42B | 907.83M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 422.56M | 337.16M | 66.18M | -372.25M | 252.22M | 346.39M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 699.24M | 523.71M | 292.01M | 113.86M | 536.68M | 465.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -254.29M | -185.65M | -219.73M | -442.24M | -2.25B | -131.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -553.72M | -411.19M | -86.42M | -125.41M | 1.78B | -56.95M |
Sandfire Resources Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
18.22
Price Trends
17.80
Positive
17.81
Positive
15.56
Positive
Market Momentum
0.16
Negative
58.14
Neutral
93.00
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:SFR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.66, above the 50-day MA of 17.80, and above the 200-day MA of 15.56, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.00 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:SFR.
Sandfire Resources Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | AU$8.45B | 20.94 | 8.93% | ― | 30.33% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
52 Neutral | AU$143.39M | 1,327.88 | -29.41% | ― | 281.37% | 2.27% | |
48 Neutral | AU$68.57M | -1.01 | -47.55% | ― | ― | ― | |
45 Neutral | AU$310.35M | -12.92 | -3.91% | ― | ― | -20.00% | |
44 Neutral | AU$178.80M | -4.15 | -73.21% | ― | ― | -11.29% | |
41 Neutral | AU$172.72M | -8.21 | -14.19% | ― | ― | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:SFR
Sandfire Resources Limited
18.22
8.52
87.84%
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0.04
<0.01
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Cyprium Metals Limited
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Caravel Minerals Limited
0.33
0.20
144.44%
AU:TNC
True North Copper
0.44
0.24
120.00%
Sandfire Resources Limited Corporate Events
Sandfire sets 23 April release for March 2026 quarterly report
Apr 8, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited has advised that it will release its March 2026 Quarterly Report on 23 April 2026, providing the market with an update on its operational and financial performance for the period. The company will host a teleconference a...
Sandfire Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Ordinary Shares
Apr 2, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 21,159 additional ordinary fully paid shares, issued on 7 January 2026 following the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible securities. The modest increase...
Macquarie Group exits substantial holder position in Sandfire Resources
Mar 27, 2026
Sandfire Resources has disclosed that Macquarie Group Limited and a suite of its controlled entities have ceased to be substantial holders in the company, according to a notice lodged under the Corporations Act. The filing, signed by MacquarieR...
Sandfire to Host Sustainability Webcast Highlighting Responsible Copper Mining
Mar 23, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited will hold a live sustainability briefing for investors and stakeholders via webcast on 24 March 2026, underscoring its focus on mining copper sustainably to support future energy needs. The company is using the event and...
Sandfire Halts MATSA Operations After Fatal Contractor Incident in Spain
Feb 25, 2026
Sandfire Resources has reported the death of an employee of a contracting company following an incident at its MATSA operations in Spain, prompting the temporary suspension of activities at the site. The company’s chief executive Brendan Har...
Sandfire Issues New Shares to Advance Kalkaroo Copper-Gold Alliance
Feb 20, 2026
Sandfire Resources has issued 4,640,833 new fully paid ordinary shares to Havilah Resources as part of the upfront consideration for advancing the Kalkaroo Copper-Gold Project in South Australia and establishing an exploration alliance in the Curn...
Sandfire Seeks ASX Quotation for 4.64 Million New Shares
Feb 20, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 4,640,833 new ordinary fully paid shares, with an issue date of 20 February 2026. The newly issued securities, which arise from previously announced transactions, will expand the c...
Macquarie Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Sandfire Resources
Feb 10, 2026
Macquarie Group Limited and its controlled entities have lodged a notice stating they have ceased to be a substantial holder in Sandfire Resources Limited. The change reflects a reduction in Macquarie’s relevant voting interest below the sub...
Sandfire Seals Kalkaroo Copper-Gold Deal with Havilah and Commits A$30m to SA Exploration
Feb 6, 2026
Sandfire Resources and Havilah Resources have executed definitive agreements to advance the Kalkaroo Copper-Gold Project in South Australia and form a regional exploration strategic alliance in the Curnamona Province, following Havilah shareholder...
Sandfire Sets Date for December 2025 Half-Year Results and Investor Briefing
Jan 29, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited has announced that it will release its financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2025 on 19 February 2026. The company will host a teleconference and live webcast on the same day to brief investors and analys...
Macquarie Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Sandfire Resources
Jan 28, 2026
Macquarie Group Limited and its controlled entities have lodged a notice that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in Sandfire Resources Limited, indicating that their voting interest in the company has fallen below the substantial sharehol...
Dimensional Entities Drops Below Substantial Holding Threshold in Sandfire Resources
Jan 22, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited has disclosed that Dimensional Entities has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 21 January 2026, according to a statutory notice filed under the Corporations Act. The change reflects a reduction i...
Sandfire Holds FY26 Guidance as Production Shifts to Second Half and Balance Sheet Turns to Net Cash
Jan 21, 2026
Sandfire Resources reported Group copper equivalent production of 72.1kt in the first half of FY26, equivalent to 46% of the midpoint of its annual guidance, and confirmed that full-year production, cost and capital expenditure targets remain unch...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.