Sandfire Resources Limited (AU:SFR)
ASX:SFR
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Sandfire Resources Limited
(Sydney:SFR)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
AU$16.50
â–²(3.58% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/20/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong revenue growth, robust free cash flow generation, and low leverage). Offsetting this, technical indicators point to weak near-term momentum with the price below major moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation appears reasonable based on a P/E of 13.97.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Sustained revenue growth near 26% signals expanding production or sales and stronger market penetration. Over the next 2–6 months this supports higher base cash flows, greater operating leverage and enhanced capacity to fund sustaining or growth capital without relying on external financing.
Negative Factors
Low Net Profitability
Despite solid top-line growth and cash generation, modest net margins and low ROE highlight limited ultimate return to shareholders. Over the medium term this constrains retained earnings growth and signals room for improvement in cost control or capital efficiency.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth
Sustained revenue growth near 26% signals expanding production or sales and stronger market penetration. Over the next 2–6 months this supports higher base cash flows, greater operating leverage and enhanced capacity to fund sustaining or growth capital without relying on external financing.
Read all positive factors
Sandfire Resources Limited (SFR) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$7.43B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.51M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.0
Beta (1Y)1.90
Revenue Growth30.33%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryAU
Employees1,236
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.34
Shares Outstanding466,563,540
10 Day Avg. Volume1,719,412
30 Day Avg. Volume1,508,210
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.09
Price to Book (P/B)2.86
Price to Sales (P/S)4.32
P/FCF Ratio15.18
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$18.81Price Target Upside18.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)0.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.61B
Sandfire Resources Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sandfire Resources Limited, a mining company, engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral tenements and projects. It primarily explores for copper, gold, silver, lead, and zinc deposits. The company owns a 100% interest in t...
How the Company Makes Money
Sandfire makes money primarily by producing and selling base metals—especially copper—from its mining operations. Revenue is generated when the company extracts ore, processes it into marketable products (typically copper concentrate and/or refine...
Sandfire Resources Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed a positive strategic and financial position: strong quarterly revenue and EBITDA, meaningful degearing (net debt reduction of $301 million) and a targeted net cash position were highlighted, alongside disciplined unit costs and active exploration and M&A progress (Kalkaroo term sheet, Black Butte PFS). Operational challenges at Motheo (OEM SAG mill component failure, lower fleet availability and temporary shipment timing effects) weighed on H1 production but management described remedial actions as completed or well advanced and expects an uplift in H2. Near-term cash commitments related to the Havilah transaction were flagged as reducing the reported net cash headroom. On balance, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights given resolved operational issues, strong financial metrics and clear strategic optionality.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Financial Results
Unaudited group sales revenue of $344 million and underlying EBITDA of $167 million for the December quarter, implying an EBITDA margin just under 50% (~48.6%).
Negative Updates
Softer Start at Motheo and Production Sensitivity
Motheo had a softer H1 than expected: ore processed was ~7% below the 5.6 Mtpa annualized processing rate for the quarter, contributing to lower grades presented to the plant and reduced metal production early in the year. Management indicated volumes are now more weighted to H2 (i.e., H1 was ~46% of guidance midpoint for the group).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Financial Results
Unaudited group sales revenue of $344 million and underlying EBITDA of $167 million for the December quarter, implying an EBITDA margin just under 50% (~48.6%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated unchanged FY‑26 guidance while flagging H1 operational and financial metrics: group copper‑equivalent production of 72,100 t (≈46% of the midpoint of the 157,000 t annual guidance) with volumes expected to be more weighted to H2; Motheo is forecast at 61,000 t Cu‑eq for FY‑26 and delivered part of the H1 volumes, MATSA produced 46,400 t in H1 (≈48% of its midpoint); underlying operating costs remain aligned with guidance at $87/t ore processed (MATSA) and $43/t (Motheo) (Motheo UOC expected to rise slightly in H2), capital expenditure guidance unchanged, C1 costs are receiving a material benefit from higher by‑product prices, and only three concentrate shipments sailed in Q2 with a fourth departing in early January; safety TRIF improved to 1.3 (from 1.4), December quarter sales were $344m for underlying EBITDA of $167m (~50% margin) and net cash was $13m at 31 Dec (after reducing net debt by $301m over 12 months), noting near‑term cash commitments of A$31.5m (completion) plus A$15m (initial exploration payment) for the proposed Havilah/Kalkaroo arrangement; additionally, the Johnny Lee PFS shows a post‑tax NPV of ~US$100m at below‑spot copper and an initial ~8‑year life with the Lowry deposit able to materially extend mine life.Sandfire Resources Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
75
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.96B | 1.19B | 921.57M | 1.16B | 1.42B | 771.83M |
| Gross Profit | 843.83M | 1.20B | 917.78M | -40.98M | 435.96M | 236.40M |
| EBITDA | 892.79M | 539.76M | 358.32M | 397.19M | 565.76M | 384.43M |
| Net Income | 213.94M | 93.25M | -17.35M | -76.68M | 153.66M | 172.39M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.34B | 2.87B | 3.00B | 4.75B | 4.93B | 1.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 205.77M | 110.67M | 183.34M | 213.23M | 673.44M | 574.51M |
| Total Debt | 229.38M | 253.24M | 582.58M | 896.25M | 1.18B | 12.77M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.50B | 1.09B | 1.33B | 2.14B | 2.51B | 278.73M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.85B | 1.79B | 1.67B | 2.61B | 2.42B | 907.83M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 499.72M | 337.16M | 66.18M | -372.25M | 252.22M | 346.39M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 830.36M | 523.71M | 292.01M | 113.86M | 536.68M | 465.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -310.09M | -185.65M | -219.73M | -442.24M | -2.25B | -131.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -615.52M | -411.19M | -86.42M | -125.41M | 1.78B | -56.95M |
Sandfire Resources Limited Technical Analysis
Negative
15.93
Price Trends
18.49
Negative
17.65
Negative
15.15
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.88
Positive
40.79
Neutral
52.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:SFR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.06, below the 50-day MA of 18.49, and above the 200-day MA of 15.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.88 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:SFR.
Sandfire Resources Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | AU$7.43B | 13.97 | 5.39% | ― | 30.33% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
52 Neutral | AU$122.91M | 1,327.88 | -29.41% | ― | 281.37% | 2.27% | |
45 Neutral | AU$262.54M | -12.92 | -5.06% | ― | ― | -20.00% | |
45 Neutral | AU$1.03B | -152.49 | -4.14% | ― | ― | -17.57% | |
44 Neutral | AU$173.22M | -4.15 | -73.21% | ― | ― | -11.29% | |
43 Neutral | AU$174.13M | 8.15 | -118.27% | ― | -57.00% | -1789.13% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:SFR
Sandfire Resources Limited
15.93
4.76
42.61%
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Sandfire Resources Limited Corporate Events
Sandfire to Host Sustainability Webcast Highlighting Responsible Copper Mining
Mar 23, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited will hold a live sustainability briefing for investors and stakeholders via webcast on 24 March 2026, underscoring its focus on mining copper sustainably to support future energy needs. The company is using the event and...
Sandfire Halts MATSA Operations After Fatal Contractor Incident in Spain
Feb 25, 2026
Sandfire Resources has reported the death of an employee of a contracting company following an incident at its MATSA operations in Spain, prompting the temporary suspension of activities at the site. The company’s chief executive Brendan Har...
Sandfire Issues New Shares to Advance Kalkaroo Copper-Gold Alliance
Feb 20, 2026
Sandfire Resources has issued 4,640,833 new fully paid ordinary shares to Havilah Resources as part of the upfront consideration for advancing the Kalkaroo Copper-Gold Project in South Australia and establishing an exploration alliance in the Curn...
Sandfire Seeks ASX Quotation for 4.64 Million New Shares
Feb 20, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 4,640,833 new ordinary fully paid shares, with an issue date of 20 February 2026. The newly issued securities, which arise from previously announced transactions, will expand the c...
Macquarie Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Sandfire Resources
Feb 10, 2026
Macquarie Group Limited and its controlled entities have lodged a notice stating they have ceased to be a substantial holder in Sandfire Resources Limited. The change reflects a reduction in Macquarie’s relevant voting interest below the sub...
Sandfire Seals Kalkaroo Copper-Gold Deal with Havilah and Commits A$30m to SA Exploration
Feb 6, 2026
Sandfire Resources and Havilah Resources have executed definitive agreements to advance the Kalkaroo Copper-Gold Project in South Australia and form a regional exploration strategic alliance in the Curnamona Province, following Havilah shareholder...
Sandfire Sets Date for December 2025 Half-Year Results and Investor Briefing
Jan 29, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited has announced that it will release its financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2025 on 19 February 2026. The company will host a teleconference and live webcast on the same day to brief investors and analys...
Macquarie Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Sandfire Resources
Jan 28, 2026
Macquarie Group Limited and its controlled entities have lodged a notice that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in Sandfire Resources Limited, indicating that their voting interest in the company has fallen below the substantial sharehol...
Dimensional Entities Drops Below Substantial Holding Threshold in Sandfire Resources
Jan 22, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited has disclosed that Dimensional Entities has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 21 January 2026, according to a statutory notice filed under the Corporations Act. The change reflects a reduction i...
Sandfire Holds FY26 Guidance as Production Shifts to Second Half and Balance Sheet Turns to Net Cash
Jan 21, 2026
Sandfire Resources reported Group copper equivalent production of 72.1kt in the first half of FY26, equivalent to 46% of the midpoint of its annual guidance, and confirmed that full-year production, cost and capital expenditure targets remain unch...
Macquarie Group Exits Substantial Shareholding in Sandfire Resources
Jan 12, 2026
Macquarie Group Limited and a range of its controlled entities have notified Sandfire Resources that they have ceased to be substantial shareholders in the ASX-listed miner, formally lodging a notice of ceasing to be a substantial holder on 7 Janu...
Sandfire Holds FY26 Copper Output Guidance as MATSA Strength Offsets Motheo Hurdles
Jan 11, 2026
Sandfire Resources has reaffirmed its full-year FY26 copper-equivalent production guidance of 157,000 tonnes, while flagging a slightly more back‑ended production profile after a mixed first half marked by strong output at its MATSA complex ...
Sandfire Sets 22 January Date for December Quarter Results and Investor Call
Jan 8, 2026
Sandfire Resources Limited will release its December 2025 Quarterly Report on 22 January 2026 and has scheduled a teleconference and live webcast the same day to discuss the results. The report will be accessible via the ASX announcements platform...
Sandfire and Havilah Extend Timetable as Kalkaroo Copper-Gold Deal Advances
Dec 30, 2025
Sandfire Resources and Havilah Resources have reported strong progress on finalising definitive agreements for Sandfire to earn up to an 80% interest in the Kalkaroo Copper-Gold Project through a two-stage earn-in structure, alongside the formatio...
Sandfire Resources Cuts Potential Dilution as Performance Rights Lapse
Dec 28, 2025
Sandfire Resources Limited has notified the market of a change in its issued capital, confirming that 69,542 performance rights (security code SFRAAE) have lapsed as of 18 December 2025 after the conditions attached to those rights were not met or...
Sandfire Resources Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Ordinary Shares
Dec 28, 2025
Sandfire Resources Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 9,337 new ordinary fully paid shares, issued on 19 December 2025 following the exercise of options or conversion of other securities. The modest increase in quoted capital reflects...
Sandfire Seeks ASX Quotation for 156,802 New Ordinary Shares
Dec 28, 2025
Sandfire Resources Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 156,802 new ordinary fully paid shares, following the issue of these securities on 17 December 2025. The additional shares, arising from the exercise or conversion of existing opti...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.