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Hot Chili Limited (AU:HCH)
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Hot Chili Limited (HCH) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:HCH

Hot Chili Limited

(OTC:HCH)

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Neutral 53 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
AU$1.50
▲(66.67% Upside)
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (persistent losses and cash burn despite a low-debt balance sheet) and limited valuation support due to a negative P/E. Strong technical momentum improves the score, but overbought indicators suggest elevated near-term risk.
Positive Factors
Low financial leverage
Sustained very low debt reduces insolvency and interest burden risk, giving management flexibility to pursue project development or partner deals. This conservative capital structure is a durable buffer while the company advances capital‑intensive exploration and permitting activities.
Project development business model
A focused asset‑development model concentrates value creation on progressing copper projects through de‑risking steps (exploration, studies, permitting). Successfully advancing projects can unlock partner/joint‑venture funding and long‑term value irrespective of short‑term market cycles.
Positive gross profit in latest year
Recording positive gross profit, even on modest revenue, suggests some underlying project or operational economics can be constructive at the margin. If sustained and scaled, this indicates potential for improving operating leverage as projects move toward commercial stages.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative operating cash flow
Repeated negative operating cash flow demonstrates the core activities do not self‑fund, requiring ongoing external capital. Over months, this persistent cash burn increases dilution and execution risk, constraining the company’s ability to advance projects without new financing or partners.
Worsening free cash flow and rising cash burn
A materially larger free cash outflow in 2025 signals escalating funding needs for development activity. Higher FCF deficits compound financing pressure, lengthen the path to self‑funding, and make project schedules and partner negotiations more sensitive to capital availability.
Minimal, volatile revenue and persistent losses
A pattern of minimal or no revenue alongside growing net losses undermines sustainable profitability prospects. This erodes returns on equity and increases reliance on external financing or asset sales, raising long‑term execution and dilution risk until projects generate stable cash flows.

Hot Chili Limited (HCH) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Hot Chili Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHot Chili Limited (HCH) is an Australian-based resource company primarily engaged in the exploration and development of copper projects. The company's core focus is on its flagship Costa Fuego project in Chile, which combines several significant copper deposits into a single development opportunity. Hot Chili Limited aims to establish itself as a leading copper producer by leveraging its strategic location and resource base.
How the Company Makes MoneyHot Chili Limited generates revenue through the exploration, development, and eventual production of copper resources. The company invests in identifying and developing copper deposits, with the goal of bringing these projects to production, thereby selling the extracted copper to generate income. Key revenue streams include the sale of copper concentrate and potential future partnerships or joint ventures with other mining companies to enhance project development and reduce financial risk. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic off-take agreements, securing buyers for its copper output, which ensures a steady revenue flow once production commences.

Hot Chili Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Hot Chili Limited faces significant financial challenges, with no revenue generation and ongoing losses impacting its income statement. While the balance sheet reflects a low level of debt, the company struggles to convert its equity into returns. Cash flow negativity indicates a dependency on external financing, raising concerns about financial sustainability without strategic changes or improved operational performance.
Income Statement
The company shows no revenue for the latest year, indicating operational challenges or a developmental phase. Negative EBIT and net income margins highlight persistent losses, suggesting financial instability. The absence of revenue growth further signifies stagnant business operations.
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a conservative leverage position. However, the lack of profitability is a concern. A strong equity base relative to total assets shows financial stability, but the company is struggling to generate returns on equity.
Cash Flow
The negative free cash flow growth and significant capital expenditures suggest challenges in generating positive cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting ongoing operational losses. The company is heavily reliant on financing activities to support cash flows.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue0.00483.67K0.000.0091.42K59.40K
Gross Profit-145.17K435.20K-156.00K-131.00K1.39K54.62K
EBITDA-11.34M-8.23M-7.59M-5.25M-4.73M-7.63M
Net Income-11.14M-11.14M-7.57M-5.22M-7.15M-9.64M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets244.80M244.80M250.88M224.43M231.60M162.00M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments5.19M5.19M33.74M2.95M23.72M3.60M
Total Debt415.30K415.30K554.60K333.61K330.85K5.00M
Total Liabilities5.17M5.17M3.46M1.78M6.82M14.10M
Stockholders Equity217.78M217.78M227.78M203.34M205.92M128.91M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-30.97K-30.97M-20.19M-20.75M-54.89M-28.96M
Operating Cash Flow-6.97K-6.97M-5.45M-5.25M-6.01M-3.61M
Investing Cash Flow-21.34M-21.34M6.55M-15.50M-48.88M-25.35M
Financing Cash Flow-194.50K-194.50K29.37M-146.85K75.48M26.40M

Hot Chili Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price0.90
Price Trends
50DMA
1.06
Positive
100DMA
0.97
Positive
200DMA
0.77
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.15
Negative
RSI
79.73
Negative
STOCH
88.42
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:HCH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.31, below the 50-day MA of 1.06, and above the 200-day MA of 0.77, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 79.73 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:HCH.

Hot Chili Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
53
Neutral
AU$293.86M-22.40-4.91%-20.00%
51
Neutral
AU$180.95M-6.05-29.41%281.37%2.27%
49
Neutral
AU$192.77M-25.72-73.21%-11.29%
48
Neutral
AU$9.99M-2.62-157.73%6.15%
46
Neutral
AU$169.88M-1.27-57.00%-1789.13%
44
Neutral
AU$278.07M-3.47
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:HCH
Hot Chili Limited
1.64
0.96
140.47%
AU:HGO
Hillgrove Resources Limited
0.05
>-0.01
-5.45%
AU:CYM
Cyprium Metals Limited
0.54
0.29
118.62%
AU:CVV
Caravel Minerals Limited
0.36
0.17
91.89%
AU:NRX
Noronex Ltd.
0.02
<0.01
23.08%
AU:AR1
Austral Resources Australia Limited
0.11
-0.05
-31.25%

Hot Chili Limited Corporate Events

Hot Chili Discloses Director’s New Service Rights Holding
Dec 22, 2025

Hot Chili Limited has reported a change in director Fiona Jayne Van Maanen’s relevant interests in securities, reflecting the indirect acquisition of 33,482 Tranche 3 Service Rights through her husband, Peter Jason Van Maanen. The service rights were issued at a deemed value of $1.03 each under a shareholder-approved plan from the company’s 27 November 2025 AGM, highlighting ongoing use of equity-based incentives in the company’s remuneration structure and reinforcing transparency around director-related security holdings for investors and regulators.

Hot Chili Director Stuart Mathews Granted Onboarding Shares and Service Rights
Dec 22, 2025

Hot Chili Limited has disclosed a change in director Stuart Mathews’ holdings following his onboarding to the company’s board. Mathews has been issued 200,000 fully paid ordinary shares and 66,665 Tranche 3 service rights at specified issue prices, in line with shareholder approval granted at the company’s annual general meeting on 27 November 2025, signalling the alignment of his incentives with shareholder interests through an equity-based component of his remuneration package.

Hot Chili Issues 100,147 Unquoted Service Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Dec 19, 2025

Hot Chili Limited has issued 100,147 unquoted service rights under its employee incentive scheme, with these securities not being quoted on the ASX until transfer restrictions end. The move reflects the company’s ongoing use of equity-based remuneration to incentivise and retain staff, modestly increasing its pool of unquoted securities and aligning employee interests more closely with long-term company performance and shareholder value.

Hot Chili Seeks ASX Quotation for 200,000 New Ordinary Shares
Dec 19, 2025

Hot Chili Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 200,000 new ordinary fully paid shares, which were approved by shareholders at the company’s annual general meeting on 27 November 2025 and issued on 18 December 2025. The onboarding of these additional shares modestly increases the company’s quoted capital base and reflects routine capital management and corporate governance processes rather than a major strategic shift, with limited immediate impact on existing shareholders beyond a small degree of dilution.

Hot Chili Limited Highlights Strategic Developments at Costa Fuego Project
Dec 1, 2025

Hot Chili Limited has released a news update regarding its Costa Fuego Copper-Gold Project, highlighting its position as a top global copper development with strategic water assets and a new porphyry discovery. This announcement underscores the project’s potential impact on the company’s operations and its competitive positioning within the mining industry, offering promising implications for stakeholders.

Hot Chili Limited Secures Strong Shareholder Support at 2025 AGM
Nov 27, 2025

Hot Chili Limited announced that all resolutions were passed at its 2025 Annual General Meeting, reflecting strong shareholder support for the company’s strategic direction. The resolutions included the adoption of the remuneration report, the election and re-election of directors, approval of the auditor, and various measures related to the company’s Employee Incentive Plan. This outcome reinforces the company’s governance and operational strategies, potentially strengthening its position in the mining industry and providing assurance to stakeholders.

Hot Chili Limited Expands Copper-Gold Discovery in Chile
Nov 27, 2025

Hot Chili Limited has announced promising results from its La Verde copper-gold discovery in Chile, with the first diamond drillhole DKD032 revealing significant copper and gold mineralization. The results, which include a standout intercept of 529 meters grading 0.41% copper and 0.21 g/t gold, have expanded the mineralization both vertically and laterally, suggesting potential for substantial growth in the company’s mineral resource base. These findings have implications for extending the mine life and enhancing the financial metrics of Hot Chili’s Costa Fuego Project, as outlined in their pre-feasibility study.

Hot Chili Limited Announces 2025 Annual General Meeting Details
Nov 24, 2025

Hot Chili Limited has announced that its Annual General Meeting (AGM) will take place on November 27, 2025, at 9:30 am AWST. Shareholders can attend the meeting in person at the company’s office in Applecross, Western Australia, or participate online via a live webcast. This announcement underscores the company’s commitment to transparency and shareholder engagement, providing stakeholders with the opportunity to engage with the company’s leadership and discuss resolutions.

Hot Chili Limited Schedules 2025 Annual General Meeting
Oct 24, 2025

Hot Chili Limited has announced its Annual General Meeting, scheduled to take place on November 27, 2025, in Applecross, Western Australia. Shareholders are encouraged to participate by voting through proxy forms, with the deadline for submission set for November 25, 2025. The meeting will address various resolutions, with voting conducted in compliance with ASX guidelines, potentially impacting the company’s governance and strategic direction.

Hot Chili Limited Gains Approval for La Verde Drilling Expansion
Oct 9, 2025

Hot Chili Limited has received regulatory approval to expand drilling at its La Verde copper-gold discovery in Chile, which is located near its Costa Fuego project. This approval allows the company to explore further extensions and test the potential of La Verde as part of a larger copper porphyry cluster. The ongoing drilling efforts aim to enhance resource growth and improve the economic viability of the Costa Fuego project, with significant implications for the company’s future operations and stakeholder interests.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 07, 2026