Hot Chili Limited (HCH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$348.02M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 455.04K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.48
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -20.00%
• Country: AU
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 177,561,810
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 588,483
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 455,043
• PEG Ratio: -0.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.42
• Price to Sales (P/S): 187.98
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.06
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$2.00 ▲(122.22% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses and elevated cash burn) and limited valuation support due to negative earnings. This is partly offset by strong technical momentum, with price above key moving averages and a positive MACD, though indicators suggest the move is becoming overextended.

Positive Factors

Conservatively levered balance sheet

Very low debt relative to equity reduces near-term insolvency risk and gives management financing optionality for project funding or strategic moves. Over a 2–6 month horizon, conservative leverage supports resilience during exploration cycles and potential capital raises.

Clear copper development focus in Chile

A focused business model targeting copper projects in Chile provides a clear strategic path and concentrated technical expertise. This specialization supports efficient allocation of exploration and permitting resources and aligns the company with a discrete asset class that management understands.

Active project advancement pathway

Ongoing exploration, technical studies and permitting indicate a structured de‑risking process toward potential mine development. These activities, if executed, can materially increase asset value over time and reduce geological and regulatory uncertainty versus pure early-stage explorers.

Negative Factors

Persistent negative operating cash flow

Consistent negative operating cash flow means the core business is not self‑funding and requires external capital to sustain activity. This elevates financing and dilution risk over several months and can constrain the pace of project development if capital markets tighten.

Materially negative free cash flow

Large negative free cash flow reflects heavy cash outflows for exploration or development without offsetting returns. Persistently negative FCF depletes reserves, increases dependency on external funding, and can delay milestones or force unfavorable financing terms over the medium term.

Sustained net losses and minimal revenue

Ongoing net losses and minimal, volatile revenue hinder the path to profitability and weaken long-term ROE. This undermines the ability to self-finance development, risks continued equity erosion, and increases reliance on dilutive capital raises or debt to fund operations.

Hot Chili Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hot Chili Limited (HCH) is an Australian-based resource company primarily engaged in the exploration and development of copper projects. The company's core focus is on its flagship Costa Fuego project in Chile, which combines several significant copper deposits into a single development opportunity. Hot Chili Limited aims to establish itself as a leading copper producer by leveraging its strategic location and resource base.

How the Company Makes Money

Hot Chili Limited generates revenue through the exploration, development, and eventual production of copper resources. The company invests in identifying and developing copper deposits, with the goal of bringing these projects to production, thereby selling the extracted copper to generate income. Key revenue streams include the sale of copper concentrate and potential future partnerships or joint ventures with other mining companies to enhance project development and reduce financial risk. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic off-take agreements, securing buyers for its copper output, which ensures a steady revenue flow once production commences.

Hot Chili Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are weak overall: the company is consistently loss-making with minimal/volatile revenue and worsening net losses in the latest period, alongside persistently negative operating and free cash flow (cash burn increased materially). This is partially offset by a conservatively levered balance sheet with very low debt, which lowers near-term solvency risk.

Income Statement

The company remains in a loss-making profile with consistently negative EBIT and net income across the annual periods provided (e.g., net loss of ~11.1m in 2025 vs ~7.6m in 2024). Revenue has been minimal and volatile (including multiple years at zero revenue), which limits evidence of a sustainable operating base. While 2025 shows a positive gross profit on modest revenue, profitability remains deeply negative and the trajectory in bottom-line earnings has recently worsened.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet appears conservatively levered, with very low debt relative to equity across the periods (debt-to-equity roughly ~0.2% in 2025 and similarly low in prior years). Equity is sizable versus total assets, providing financial flexibility and lowering insolvency risk. The key weakness is ongoing negative returns on equity driven by persistent net losses, which continues to erode value even with low leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is weak, with operating cash flow negative every year shown (about -7.0m in 2025 vs -5.5m in 2024), indicating the core business is not self-funding. Free cash flow is also consistently negative and materially worsened in 2025 (around -31.0m), suggesting heavier cash investment and/or rising cash burn. While free cash flow has at times moved sharply year-to-year, the overall pattern remains persistent cash outflow and reliance on external funding over time.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	483.67K	0.00	0.00	91.42K	59.40K
Gross Profit	-145.17K	435.20K	-156.00K	-131.00K	1.39K	54.62K
EBITDA	-11.34M	-8.23M	-7.59M	-5.25M	-4.73M	-7.63M
Net Income	-11.14M	-11.14M	-7.57M	-5.22M	-7.15M	-9.64M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	244.80M	244.80M	250.88M	224.43M	231.60M	162.00M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.19M	5.19M	33.74M	2.95M	23.72M	3.60M
Total Debt	415.30K	415.30K	554.60K	333.61K	330.85K	5.00M
Total Liabilities	5.17M	5.17M	3.46M	1.78M	6.82M	14.10M
Stockholders Equity	217.78M	217.78M	227.78M	203.34M	205.92M	128.91M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-30.97K	-30.97M	-20.19M	-20.75M	-54.89M	-28.96M
Operating Cash Flow	-6.97K	-6.97M	-5.45M	-5.25M	-6.01M	-3.61M
Investing Cash Flow	-21.34M	-21.34M	6.55M	-15.50M	-48.88M	-25.35M
Financing Cash Flow	-194.50K	-194.50K	29.37M	-146.85K	75.48M	26.40M

Hot Chili Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 0.90
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:HCH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.70, below the 50-day MA of 1.32, and above the 200-day MA of 0.86, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.33 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.16 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:HCH.

Hot Chili Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
HGO	57 Neutral	AU$191.19M	-6.98	-29.41%	―	281.37%	2.27%
HCH	52 Neutral	AU$348.02M	-27.46	-4.91%	―	―	-20.00%
CYM	50 Neutral	AU$282.99M	-3.82	―	―	―	―
CVV	49 Neutral	AU$273.79M	-35.51	-73.21%	―	―	-11.29%
AR1	49 Neutral	AU$203.86M	-1.44	―	―	-57.00%	-1789.13%
NRX	48 Neutral	AU$9.99M	-2.46	-157.73%	―	―	6.15%

Hot Chili Limited Corporate Events

Hot Chili Extends High-Grade Core at La Verde as Drilling Results Boost Costa Fuego Upside

Hot Chili Limited reported strong new drilling results from its La Verde copper–gold discovery in Chile, with Phase two diamond drilling significantly expanding the project’s emerging high-grade, bulk-tonnage core. Key intercepts include 495 metres grading 0.38% copper and 0.10 g/t gold from near surface in hole DKD033 and 426 metres grading 0.37% copper and 0.08 g/t gold from DKD034, both ending in mineralisation and suggesting further potential at depth. The company has six diamond holes still awaiting assays, has restarted drilling after a short pause, and is using advanced geological modelling and targeting strategies refined at its nearby Cortadera resource to grow La Verde. Management highlighted that, against record copper and gold prices, the strengthening discovery at La Verde enhances the strategic value of Costa Fuego and further increases the company’s exposure to rising copper prices, which materially impact project economics.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HCH) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hot Chili Limited stock, see the AU:HCH Stock Forecast page.

Hot Chili Discloses Director’s New Service Rights Holding

Hot Chili Limited has reported a change in director Fiona Jayne Van Maanen’s relevant interests in securities, reflecting the indirect acquisition of 33,482 Tranche 3 Service Rights through her husband, Peter Jason Van Maanen. The service rights were issued at a deemed value of $1.03 each under a shareholder-approved plan from the company’s 27 November 2025 AGM, highlighting ongoing use of equity-based incentives in the company’s remuneration structure and reinforcing transparency around director-related security holdings for investors and regulators.

Hot Chili Director Stuart Mathews Granted Onboarding Shares and Service Rights

Hot Chili Limited has disclosed a change in director Stuart Mathews’ holdings following his onboarding to the company’s board. Mathews has been issued 200,000 fully paid ordinary shares and 66,665 Tranche 3 service rights at specified issue prices, in line with shareholder approval granted at the company’s annual general meeting on 27 November 2025, signalling the alignment of his incentives with shareholder interests through an equity-based component of his remuneration package.

Hot Chili Issues 100,147 Unquoted Service Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme

Hot Chili Limited has issued 100,147 unquoted service rights under its employee incentive scheme, with these securities not being quoted on the ASX until transfer restrictions end. The move reflects the company’s ongoing use of equity-based remuneration to incentivise and retain staff, modestly increasing its pool of unquoted securities and aligning employee interests more closely with long-term company performance and shareholder value.

Hot Chili Seeks ASX Quotation for 200,000 New Ordinary Shares

Hot Chili Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 200,000 new ordinary fully paid shares, which were approved by shareholders at the company’s annual general meeting on 27 November 2025 and issued on 18 December 2025. The onboarding of these additional shares modestly increases the company’s quoted capital base and reflects routine capital management and corporate governance processes rather than a major strategic shift, with limited immediate impact on existing shareholders beyond a small degree of dilution.

Hot Chili Limited Highlights Strategic Developments at Costa Fuego Project

Hot Chili Limited has released a news update regarding its Costa Fuego Copper-Gold Project, highlighting its position as a top global copper development with strategic water assets and a new porphyry discovery. This announcement underscores the project’s potential impact on the company’s operations and its competitive positioning within the mining industry, offering promising implications for stakeholders.

Hot Chili Limited Secures Strong Shareholder Support at 2025 AGM

Hot Chili Limited announced that all resolutions were passed at its 2025 Annual General Meeting, reflecting strong shareholder support for the company’s strategic direction. The resolutions included the adoption of the remuneration report, the election and re-election of directors, approval of the auditor, and various measures related to the company’s Employee Incentive Plan. This outcome reinforces the company’s governance and operational strategies, potentially strengthening its position in the mining industry and providing assurance to stakeholders.

Hot Chili Limited Expands Copper-Gold Discovery in Chile

Hot Chili Limited has announced promising results from its La Verde copper-gold discovery in Chile, with the first diamond drillhole DKD032 revealing significant copper and gold mineralization. The results, which include a standout intercept of 529 meters grading 0.41% copper and 0.21 g/t gold, have expanded the mineralization both vertically and laterally, suggesting potential for substantial growth in the company’s mineral resource base. These findings have implications for extending the mine life and enhancing the financial metrics of Hot Chili’s Costa Fuego Project, as outlined in their pre-feasibility study.

Hot Chili Limited Announces 2025 Annual General Meeting Details

Hot Chili Limited has announced that its Annual General Meeting (AGM) will take place on November 27, 2025, at 9:30 am AWST. Shareholders can attend the meeting in person at the company’s office in Applecross, Western Australia, or participate online via a live webcast. This announcement underscores the company’s commitment to transparency and shareholder engagement, providing stakeholders with the opportunity to engage with the company’s leadership and discuss resolutions.