tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Hillgrove Resources Limited (AU:HGO)
ASX:HGO
Australian Market

Hillgrove Resources Limited (HGO) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
43 Followers

Top Page

AU:HGO

Hillgrove Resources Limited

(Sydney:HGO)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Neutral 57 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.06
▲(24.00% Upside)
The score is held back primarily by weak fundamentals (ongoing losses, thin gross margin, and negative free cash flow despite better operating cash flow). Supporting the score, technicals are strong with price trading above key moving averages and positive momentum indicators. Valuation provides limited support due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Operational Recovery
A material rebound in revenue with positive EBITDA and strong operating cash flow signals a durable operational inflection. Sustained cash generation from operations reduces short-term funding pressure and supports reinvestment or debt servicing over the next 2–6 months if maintained.
Moderate Leverage
Relatively low reported leverage provides balance-sheet flexibility versus peers, lowering refinancing risk and providing capacity for near-term capex or working capital. This structural buffer improves resilience through commodity cycles and supports project funding optionality.
Clear Business Model
A focused copper concentrate business ties revenues to physical shipments and long-term commodity demand. Structural electrification trends underpin medium-term copper demand, giving the firm a durable market opportunity provided it sustains volumes, grades and contractual offtakes.
Negative Factors
Negative Free Cash Flow
Persistent negative free cash flow despite operating cash inflow indicates reinvestment or working capital is consuming cash, necessitating external funding or asset sales. Over months, this raises execution and refinancing risk and limits capacity to self-fund growth or weather shocks.
Very Thin Gross Margin
Extremely thin gross margins and ongoing net losses highlight structural cost or pricing pressure. With limited per-unit margin, the business is vulnerable to input cost inflation or lower realised copper prices, making sustained profitability and cash conversion challenging without structural cost improvement.
Equity Erosion & Negative ROE
Material equity decline and a deeply negative ROE reflect accumulated losses and potential dilution risk. This weakens the capital base, can raise cost of capital, and constrains long-term project financing or dividends, impeding durable shareholder value creation if losses persist.

Hillgrove Resources Limited (HGO) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Hillgrove Resources Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHillgrove Resources Limited operates as a mining company in Australia. The company explores for copper, gold, and silver deposits. Its flagship project is Kanmantoo Copper mine located approximately 55km from Adelaide, South Australia. The company was incorporated in 1952 and is headquartered in Unley, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyHillgrove Resources Limited generates revenue through the extraction and sale of copper concentrate from its Kanmantoo Copper Mine. The company's primary revenue stream comes from selling copper concentrate to smelters and refiners, which process the concentrate into finished copper products. Additionally, Hillgrove may engage in strategic partnerships or offtake agreements with other companies to enhance its market reach and secure stable revenue streams. The company's earnings are influenced by copper market prices, production volumes, and operational efficiencies at the mine.

Hillgrove Resources Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Operations improved materially in 2024 (revenue rebound, positive EBITDA, and positive operating cash flow), and leverage is moderate (debt-to-equity ~0.21). However, profitability remains weak (negative EBIT and wider net loss), gross margin is very thin, and free cash flow is still negative, indicating ongoing execution and funding risk.
Income Statement
38
Negative
Revenue rebounded sharply in 2024 (annual revenue of 112.4M, up materially from a zero-revenue year in 2023), and EBITDA turned positive (21.2M; ~18.9% margin), indicating improving operating momentum. However, profitability remains weak: gross margin is thin (~1.3%), EBIT is still negative (-10.4M), and net losses widened to -24.0M (net margin ~-21.4%). Overall, the business shows recovery in activity levels, but it has not yet translated into sustainable earnings.
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Leverage looks moderate, with 2024 debt of 8.7M against equity of 41.6M (debt-to-equity ~0.21), providing balance-sheet flexibility relative to many smaller resource companies. That said, equity has declined versus 2023 (54.9M to 41.6M), and returns remain deeply negative (2024 return on equity ~-57.8%), reflecting ongoing losses and dilution/erosion risk if profitability doesn’t improve.
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
Cash generation improved meaningfully in 2024, with operating cash flow of 21.0M versus negative operating cash flow in 2021–2023, which is a clear positive inflection. The key weakness is reinvestment burden: free cash flow stayed negative in 2024 (-11.2M) and deteriorated versus 2023 (free cash flow growth ~-68.1%), suggesting capital spending and/or working capital needs are still consuming cash despite better operations.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue153.49M112.39M0.000.000.0020.25M
Gross Profit48.59M1.46M-5.98M-165.00K-2.00K-1.36M
EBITDA33.52M21.24M-12.68M-4.46M-5.43M-5.41M
Net Income-17.79M-24.03M-16.33M-5.97M-5.86M-5.95M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets132.04M107.39M101.06M52.90M51.29M35.89M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments10.62M3.26M10.24M5.30M10.74M5.60M
Total Debt6.55M8.69M19.30M7.20M0.000.00
Total Liabilities71.30M65.81M46.18M20.33M13.35M12.67M
Stockholders Equity60.74M41.57M54.88M32.57M37.94M23.22M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-6.88M-11.22M-31.29M-13.58M-14.29M-6.03M
Operating Cash Flow31.99M21.00M-8.78M-5.71M-4.89M-3.00M
Investing Cash Flow-39.06M-32.02M-22.46M-5.57M-9.39M-2.78M
Financing Cash Flow10.26M4.04M36.17M5.89M19.42M2.04M

Hillgrove Resources Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price0.05
Price Trends
50DMA
0.04
Positive
100DMA
0.04
Positive
200DMA
0.04
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
<0.01
Positive
RSI
49.61
Neutral
STOCH
76.59
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:HGO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.05, above the 50-day MA of 0.04, and above the 200-day MA of 0.04, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:HGO.

Hillgrove Resources Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
57
Neutral
AU$184.36M-6.28-29.41%281.37%2.27%
52
Neutral
AU$344.47M-26.50-4.91%-20.00%
50
Neutral
AU$278.07M-3.63
49
Neutral
AU$251.44M-32.61-73.21%-11.29%
49
Neutral
AU$203.86M-1.38-57.00%-1789.13%
48
Neutral
AU$9.37M-2.46-157.73%6.15%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:HGO
Hillgrove Resources Limited
0.05
0.01
31.71%
AU:HCH
Hot Chili Limited
1.94
1.29
199.85%
AU:CYM
Cyprium Metals Limited
0.57
0.32
128.74%
AU:CVV
Caravel Minerals Limited
0.45
0.26
130.77%
AU:NRX
Noronex Ltd.
0.02
0.00
0.00%
AU:AR1
Austral Resources Australia Limited
0.12
-0.04
-25.00%

Hillgrove Resources Limited Corporate Events

Hillgrove Resources Releases Updated Investor Presentation
Jan 27, 2026

Hillgrove Resources has released an updated investor presentation, providing the market with refreshed information on its operations and strategic positioning as an Australian copper producer. The updated materials are intended to enhance engagement with current and prospective investors via the company’s investor hub, underscoring an ongoing effort to maintain transparency and support informed investment decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HGO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hillgrove Resources Limited stock, see the AU:HGO Stock Forecast page.

Hillgrove Strikes Garnet Tailings Deal to Boost Income and Cut Closure Liabilities
Jan 27, 2026

Hillgrove Resources has signed a binding tailings processing agreement with Heavy Minerals Limited to extract and sell garnet from process tailings and the tailings storage facility at its Kanmantoo Copper Mine in South Australia. Under the deal, Heavy Minerals will build and operate a garnet processing plant on site, with Hillgrove to receive a 15% gross revenue payment from in-specification garnet sales during mine operations (reducing to 5% after closure), fixed payments for out-of-specification garnet, and initial milestone payments, alongside a guaranteed minimum revenue stream once production begins. The agreement is expected to extend the operational life of the Kanmantoo tailings storage facility, with anticipated garnet output rising from up to 50,000 tonnes per year in the first three years to 100,000 tonnes in year four, and may ultimately transfer certain rehabilitation obligations for the site to Heavy Minerals, enhancing Hillgrove’s income diversification and reducing long-term closure liabilities in the industrial minerals market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HGO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hillgrove Resources Limited stock, see the AU:HGO Stock Forecast page.

Heavy Minerals Secures Kanmantoo Tailings Deal to Launch Industrial Garnet Project
Jan 27, 2026

Heavy Minerals Limited has signed a binding Tailings Processing Agreement with Hillgrove Copper to develop a hardrock almandine garnet project using tailings from Hillgrove’s Kanmantoo copper mine in South Australia. The deal provides Heavy with access to tailings feedstock, sets production limits prior to obtaining mining tenure, and outlines a series of revenue-based payments and royalties to Hillgrove, alongside Heavy’s assumption of environmental and rehabilitation responsibilities over its operations and ultimately the wider site once Hillgrove ceases copper and gold production. Heavy plans to commence garnet production in late 2026, targeting high-quality, low-cost waterjet cutting products, and is pursuing $25–$30 million in financing through a mix of debt, pre-sales and royalties while advancing distribution discussions in the US, European and Australian markets, positioning the Kanmantoo project as a potential new supply source in the industrial garnet sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HGO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hillgrove Resources Limited stock, see the AU:HGO Stock Forecast page.

Hillgrove Hits 2025 Copper Targets, Lifts Reserves and Maps Out Growth Plan for 2026
Jan 21, 2026

Hillgrove Resources delivered 2025 copper production of 11,315 tonnes, in line with guidance, and achieved all-in costs at the lower end of its forecast range, generating $35.8 million in operating mine cash flow and ending the year with $20.6 million in cash. Operational performance strengthened through record quarterly copper output, increased underground development, and mining and processing rates above a 1.5Mtpa run-rate, while the start of Nugent stope production ahead of schedule provided a second ore source and an underground link to Kavanagh. The company reported a 43% increase in Ore Reserves and a 14% rise in Mineral Resources at Kanmantoo, underpinned by extensive drilling that both exceeded annual meterage targets and returned strong intercepts at Kavanagh, supporting expectations of a longer mine life and future growth. For 2026, Hillgrove has issued copper production guidance of 12,750–14,000 tonnes at a targeted all-in sustaining cost of A$5.75–A$6.25 per pound, and plans A$8–10 million of capital investment to ramp up production, advance Emily Star as a potential third ore source, and pursue further resource growth through surface and underground drilling, positioning the operation for scale and cost improvements that are significant for shareholders and broader project stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HGO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hillgrove Resources Limited stock, see the AU:HGO Stock Forecast page.

Hillgrove Resources Trims Potential Share Dilution as 1.15m Performance Rights Lapse
Jan 20, 2026

Hillgrove Resources Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 1,154,140 HGOAA performance rights, which lapsed on 20 January 2026 after the conditions attached to those rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The lapse reduces the pool of potential new shares that could be created from these rights, modestly tightening the company’s prospective capital base and clarifying the dilution outlook for existing shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HGO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hillgrove Resources Limited stock, see the AU:HGO Stock Forecast page.

Hillgrove to Release December Quarter Report and Launches Investor Hub for Shareholders
Jan 16, 2026

Hillgrove Resources will release its December 2025 quarterly report to the ASX before market open on 22 January 2026 and will host a results webinar the same day, led by CEO Bob Fulker and CFO Luke Anderson, to brief investors on the company’s performance. The company has also launched a new Investor Hub platform designed to give existing and prospective shareholders real-time access to announcements, reports and presentations, signalling a move to enhance investor engagement and transparency through more accessible, centralised communications.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HGO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hillgrove Resources Limited stock, see the AU:HGO Stock Forecast page.

Hillgrove Confirms High-Grade Copper at Emily Star, Supporting Kanmantoo Expansion Plans
Jan 7, 2026

Hillgrove Resources has reported further strong underground drilling results from the Emily Star lode system at its Kanmantoo Copper Mine, with the final two holes of the current program intersecting multiple zones of high-grade copper-gold mineralisation, including intervals above 1.3% copper. The company says the results confirm the continuity and depth extension of the Emily Star system beneath the existing mineral resource, underpinning its decision to develop a dedicated drill drive that will improve underground access, shorten future drill holes and potentially open multiple new mining fronts, bolstering confidence in expanding production from Kanmantoo.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HGO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hillgrove Resources Limited stock, see the AU:HGO Stock Forecast page.

Hillgrove Hits Key Milestone as Nugent Decline Links to Kavanagh at Kanmantoo
Dec 19, 2025

Hillgrove Resources has completed the Nugent Decline on schedule at its Kanmantoo Copper Mine, successfully linking the Nugent and Kavanagh underground mining areas. The new connection provides efficient access to approximately 1.3 million tonnes of mineral resources and is expected to relieve congestion in the Kavanagh orebody by adding new mining fronts and production levels, while also improving trucking efficiencies via a decline loop. With 2.2 kilometres of development at Nugent finished this year and stoping now underway, the company says it remains on track to lift mining rates to 1.7–1.8 million tonnes per annum in the first half of 2026, reinforcing its push to scale up production and strengthen operational performance at Kanmantoo.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HGO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hillgrove Resources Limited stock, see the AU:HGO Stock Forecast page.

Hillgrove Resources Director Acquires Additional Shares
Dec 1, 2025

Hillgrove Resources Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, with Derek Carter acquiring 1,428,572 ordinary shares through participation in a placement approved at a recent general meeting. This acquisition reflects ongoing strategic positioning within the company, potentially impacting its market operations and signaling confidence in its future prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HGO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hillgrove Resources Limited stock, see the AU:HGO Stock Forecast page.

Hillgrove Resources Issues New Shares to Bolster Capital
Dec 1, 2025

Hillgrove Resources Limited has issued 146,476,966 fully paid ordinary shares at a price of A$0.035 per share as part of a placement initially announced in September 2025. This move, conducted without disclosure under Part 6D.2 of the Corporations Act, aligns with the company’s compliance with regular reporting obligations and indicates a strategic effort to raise capital, potentially impacting its operational capacity and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HGO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hillgrove Resources Limited stock, see the AU:HGO Stock Forecast page.

Hillgrove Resources Announces Cessation of Performance Rights
Nov 28, 2025

Hillgrove Resources Limited announced the cessation of 25,286,158 performance rights, as the conditions for these securities were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This development may impact the company’s capital structure and could influence investor perceptions regarding the company’s future performance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HGO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hillgrove Resources Limited stock, see the AU:HGO Stock Forecast page.

Hillgrove Resources Secures Shareholder Approval for Key Resolutions
Nov 25, 2025

Hillgrove Resources Limited, an Australian company listed on the ASX, held a General Meeting where all proposed resolutions were passed. The meeting results indicate strong shareholder support for the company’s strategic decisions, including director participation in share placements and the ratification of share issues, which could enhance the company’s financial position and operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HGO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hillgrove Resources Limited stock, see the AU:HGO Stock Forecast page.

Hillgrove Resources Unveils Strategic Presentation at General Meeting
Nov 24, 2025

Hillgrove Resources Limited announced a presentation by CEO Bob Fulker at their General Meeting, highlighting the company’s ongoing operations and strategic direction. This announcement may impact stakeholders by providing insights into Hillgrove’s future plans and reinforcing its position in the copper industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HGO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hillgrove Resources Limited stock, see the AU:HGO Stock Forecast page.

Hillgrove Resources Updates Tranche 2 Placement Schedule
Nov 3, 2025

Hillgrove Resources Limited has announced updates to its proposed issue of securities, specifically regarding the Tranche 2 Placement. The updates include changes to the General Meeting date for approval and the issue date for the Tranche 2 Placement. These adjustments are part of the company’s efforts to manage its capital raising activities effectively, which could impact its operational funding and strategic initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HGO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hillgrove Resources Limited stock, see the AU:HGO Stock Forecast page.

Hillgrove Resources Boosts Kanmantoo Copper Reserves and Resources
Oct 30, 2025

Hillgrove Resources Limited has announced a significant increase in its Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) and Ore Reserve Estimate (ORE) at the Kanmantoo Copper mine. The 2025 Ore Reserve shows a 43% increase in reserve tonnes and a 33% increase in contained copper compared to 2024, while the Mineral Resource Estimate reflects a 14% increase in total tonnes and a 46% increase in contained gold. These updates highlight the strength of the Kanmantoo copper system and suggest an extended life for the mine, bolstering confidence in the long-term viability of Hillgrove’s operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HGO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hillgrove Resources Limited stock, see the AU:HGO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 30, 2026