Hillgrove Resources Limited (AU:HGO)
ASX:HGO
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Hillgrove Resources Limited
(Sydney:HGO)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.03
▼(-15.00% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/20/26
The score is driven mainly by improving but still mixed financials (low leverage and a 2025 operational rebound, offset by thin net profitability and negative free cash flow). Technicals are a notable headwind given the downtrend and weak momentum. Valuation is the weakest pillar due to the extremely high P/E, while the earnings call provides a partial offset with upbeat production/resource growth and supportive 2026 guidance despite near-term cost and execution risks.
Positive Factors
Low leverage / strong balance sheet
Extremely low debt relative to equity gives Hillgrove durable financial flexibility across commodity cycles. A conservative capital structure reduces refinancing risk, supports funding of Nugent ramp and exploration, and preserves optionality for opportunistic investments or further hedging.
Negative Factors
Meaningful negative free cash flow
Persistent negative free cash flow reflects substantial sustaining and major capital outlays that consume operating cash. If negative FCF continues, the company may face funding needs, dilution risk or constrained ability to self‑finance further growth or weather metal price downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low leverage / strong balance sheet
Extremely low debt relative to equity gives Hillgrove durable financial flexibility across commodity cycles. A conservative capital structure reduces refinancing risk, supports funding of Nugent ramp and exploration, and preserves optionality for opportunistic investments or further hedging.
Read all positive factors
Hillgrove Resources Limited (HGO) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$126.32M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)14.38M
Price to Earnings (P/E)1327.9
Beta (1Y)1.41
Revenue Growth281.37%
EPS Growth2.27%
CountryAU
Employees8
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.00
Shares Outstanding3,414,092,000
10 Day Avg. Volume26,019,290
30 Day Avg. Volume14,382,650
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-13.28
Price to Book (P/B)1.27
Price to Sales (P/S)0.73
P/FCF Ratio-6.40
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$0.06Price Target Upside50.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$250.30M
Hillgrove Resources Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hillgrove Resources Limited operates as a mining company in Australia. The company explores for copper, gold, and silver deposits. Its flagship project is Kanmantoo Copper mine located approximately 55km from Adelaide, South Australia. The company...
How the Company Makes Money
Hillgrove Resources makes money primarily by producing copper concentrate and selling it to third-party customers (typically commodity traders or smelters). Revenue is generated based on the volume of concentrate shipped and the contained payable ...
Hillgrove Resources Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive operational and growth story: production met FY2025 guidance, quarterly production hit a record, reserves and resources materially increased (ore reserve +43%, resource tonnes +14%), Nugent achieved key milestones and is driving a 2026 production uplift (guidance 12,750–14,000 t). Strong drilling progress and capital discipline were highlighted, along with completed equity funding. Near‑term challenges include one‑off costs, unplanned maintenance, inventory drawdown, modest gold recovery and geological variability (pinch/swell), and some conservative near‑term cost guidance. Overall, the positives around production, resource growth, project delivery and funding outweigh the short‑term operational and cost headwinds.Positive Updates
Full‑Year Copper Production Within Guidance
FY2025 copper production of 11,315 tonnes, within guidance range of 11,000–11,500 tonnes.
Negative Updates
One‑Off Costs and Unplanned Maintenance
December quarter experienced one‑off costs including stock write‑offs and unplanned plant maintenance, which increased absolute all‑in sustaining costs quarter‑on‑quarter and reduced inventory credit.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full‑Year Copper Production Within Guidance
FY2025 copper production of 11,315 tonnes, within guidance range of 11,000–11,500 tonnes.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for 2026: copper production 12,750–14,000 tonnes (supported by a targeted mining rate of 1.7–1.8 Mtpa and a 1.8 Mtpa H2 run‑rate), all‑in sustaining costs AUD 5.75–6.25 per pound of payable copper sold (note 2025 AISC USD 4.29/lb within USD 4.20–4.45 guidance and Q4 AISC USD 4.03/lb = AUD 6.30), major capital AUD 8–10 million (vs $21m major and $20.5m sustaining capex invested in 2025), Nugent now in production driving higher H2 gold (2025 gold 2,249 oz, Q4 753 oz, ~55% recovery planned and gold grade expected to nearly double in H2), FY2025 copper 11,315 t (within 11,000–11,500 guidance) and Q4 copper 2,962 t (3,121 t payable sold at an average realized AUD 14,754/t), company liquidity $30.8m (cash $20.6m), operating cash flow $12.7m Q4 and $35.8m FY, 3,560 t of hedges outstanding at a weighted AUD 14,459/t for Jan–Sep 2026, and a 2025 reserve/resource of 4 Mt ore reserve (34,000 t Cu, 29,000 oz Au) and 22 Mt mineral resource (160,000 t Cu, 120,000 oz Au).Hillgrove Resources Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
42
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 167.62M | 112.39M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 29.82M | 1.46M | -5.98M | -165.00K | -2.00K |
| EBITDA | 27.11M | 21.24M | -12.68M | -4.46M | -5.43M |
| Net Income | 92.00K | -24.03M | -16.33M | -5.97M | -5.86M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 150.24M | 107.39M | 101.06M | 52.90M | 51.29M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 20.95M | 3.26M | 10.24M | 5.30M | 10.74M |
| Total Debt | 4.59M | 8.69M | 19.30M | 7.20M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 54.22M | 65.81M | 46.18M | 20.33M | 13.35M |
| Stockholders Equity | 96.03M | 41.57M | 54.88M | 32.57M | 37.94M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -19.10M | -11.22M | -31.29M | -13.58M | -14.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 20.73M | 21.00M | -8.78M | -5.71M | -4.89M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -40.31M | -32.02M | -22.46M | -5.57M | -9.39M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 37.27M | 4.04M | 36.17M | 5.89M | 19.42M |
Hillgrove Resources Limited Technical Analysis
Negative
0.04
Price Trends
0.05
Negative
0.04
Negative
0.04
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
46.80
Neutral
117.78
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:HGO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.04, below the 50-day MA of 0.05, and below the 200-day MA of 0.04, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 117.78 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:HGO.
Hillgrove Resources Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
52 Neutral | AU$126.32M | 1,327.88 | -29.41% | ― | 281.37% | 2.27% | |
45 Neutral | AU$279.01M | -12.92 | -5.06% | ― | ― | -20.00% | |
44 Neutral | AU$181.60M | -4.15 | -73.21% | ― | ― | -11.29% | |
43 Neutral | AU$6.29M | -3.13 | -123.30% | ― | ― | 6.15% | |
43 Neutral | AU$192.41M | 8.15 | -118.27% | ― | -57.00% | -1789.13% | |
41 Neutral | AU$190.24M | -8.21 | -14.19% | ― | ― | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:HGO
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Hillgrove Resources Limited Corporate Events
Hillgrove Issues 47.5m Unquoted Performance Rights Under Incentive Scheme
Mar 19, 2026
Hillgrove Resources Limited has notified the market of the issue of 47,522,148 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme. The securities, designated as HGOAA performance rights and not intended to be quoted on the ASX, were i...
Hillgrove Expands High-Grade Copper-Gold Zones as Kanmantoo Growth Drive Accelerates
Mar 17, 2026
Hillgrove Resources has reported new high-grade copper-gold intersections at its Nugent and emerging Nugent East zones within the Kanmantoo Copper Mine, including significant widths and grades that extend the known mineralised footprint. These res...
Hillgrove Streamlines Tenements to Target Higher-Grade Copper Exploration
Mar 3, 2026
Hillgrove Resources has completed a prospectivity review of its South-Eastern Delamerian tenement package and relinquished more than 2,000 square kilometres of lower-prospectivity ground. The move is designed to sharpen the company’s focus a...
Hillgrove Resources Releases Updated Investor Presentation
Jan 27, 2026
Hillgrove Resources has released an updated investor presentation, providing the market with refreshed information on its operations and strategic positioning as an Australian copper producer. The updated materials are intended to enhance engageme...
Hillgrove Strikes Garnet Tailings Deal to Boost Income and Cut Closure Liabilities
Jan 27, 2026
Hillgrove Resources has signed a binding tailings processing agreement with Heavy Minerals Limited to extract and sell garnet from process tailings and the tailings storage facility at its Kanmantoo Copper Mine in South Australia. Under the deal, ...
Heavy Minerals Secures Kanmantoo Tailings Deal to Launch Industrial Garnet Project
Jan 27, 2026
Heavy Minerals Limited has signed a binding Tailings Processing Agreement with Hillgrove Copper to develop a hardrock almandine garnet project using tailings from Hillgrove’s Kanmantoo copper mine in South Australia. The deal provides Heavy ...
Hillgrove Hits 2025 Copper Targets, Lifts Reserves and Maps Out Growth Plan for 2026
Jan 21, 2026
Hillgrove Resources delivered 2025 copper production of 11,315 tonnes, in line with guidance, and achieved all-in costs at the lower end of its forecast range, generating $35.8 million in operating mine cash flow and ending the year with $20.6 mil...
Hillgrove Resources Trims Potential Share Dilution as 1.15m Performance Rights Lapse
Jan 20, 2026
Hillgrove Resources Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 1,154,140 HGOAA performance rights, which lapsed on 20 January 2026 after the conditions attached to those rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The laps...
Hillgrove to Release December Quarter Report and Launches Investor Hub for Shareholders
Jan 16, 2026
Hillgrove Resources will release its December 2025 quarterly report to the ASX before market open on 22 January 2026 and will host a results webinar the same day, led by CEO Bob Fulker and CFO Luke Anderson, to brief investors on the company’...
Hillgrove Confirms High-Grade Copper at Emily Star, Supporting Kanmantoo Expansion Plans
Jan 7, 2026
Hillgrove Resources has reported further strong underground drilling results from the Emily Star lode system at its Kanmantoo Copper Mine, with the final two holes of the current program intersecting multiple zones of high-grade copper-gold minera...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.