Hillgrove Resources Limited (AU:HGO)
ASX:HGO
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Hillgrove Resources Limited
(Sydney:HGO)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.06
â–²(42.50% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/05/26
The score is driven mainly by improving financial trajectory and a strong balance sheet, plus supportive technical momentum and a constructive earnings outlook with higher 2026 production guidance. This is materially offset by weak cash conversion (negative free cash flow) and a highly demanding valuation given the extremely high P/E and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Very low leverage and meaningful liquidity give Hillgrove structural financial flexibility across the commodity cycle. This reduces refinancing and interest risks, supports funding of sustaining and growth capex, and allows management to weather commodity volatility without immediate capital raises.
Negative Factors
Negative Free Cash Flow
Persistently negative free cash flow driven by heavy major and sustaining capital undermines self-funding. Over the medium term this raises dependence on external financing or equity dilution to fund growth and sustaining projects, increasing financial risk if capex remains elevated.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Very low leverage and meaningful liquidity give Hillgrove structural financial flexibility across the commodity cycle. This reduces refinancing and interest risks, supports funding of sustaining and growth capex, and allows management to weather commodity volatility without immediate capital raises.
Read all positive factors
Hillgrove Resources Limited (HGO) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$190.64M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)14.38M
Price to Earnings (P/E)2003.9
Beta (1Y)1.49
Revenue Growth49.14%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryAU
Employees8
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)<0.01
Shares Outstanding3,530,371,000
10 Day Avg. Volume26,019,290
30 Day Avg. Volume14,382,650
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-13.28
Price to Book (P/B)1.27
Price to Sales (P/S)0.73
P/FCF Ratio-6.40
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$0.07Price Target Upside62.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$252.05M
Hillgrove Resources Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hillgrove Resources Limited is an Australian-based mining entity with a primary focus on discovering copper, gold, and silver mineral deposits. Its most prominent undertaking is the Kanmantoo Copper mine, positioned approximately 55 kilometers out...
How the Company Makes Money
Hillgrove Resources makes money primarily by producing and selling copper concentrate from its mining operations. Revenue is generated when concentrate is delivered and sold under offtake/sales contracts, with payments typically based on contained...
Hillgrove Resources Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive operational and growth story: production met FY2025 guidance, quarterly production hit a record, reserves and resources materially increased (ore reserve +43%, resource tonnes +14%), Nugent achieved key milestones and is driving a 2026 production uplift (guidance 12,750–14,000 t). Strong drilling progress and capital discipline were highlighted, along with completed equity funding. Near‑term challenges include one‑off costs, unplanned maintenance, inventory drawdown, modest gold recovery and geological variability (pinch/swell), and some conservative near‑term cost guidance. Overall, the positives around production, resource growth, project delivery and funding outweigh the short‑term operational and cost headwinds.Positive Updates
Full‑Year Copper Production Within Guidance
FY2025 copper production of 11,315 tonnes, within guidance range of 11,000–11,500 tonnes.
Negative Updates
One‑Off Costs and Unplanned Maintenance
December quarter experienced one‑off costs including stock write‑offs and unplanned plant maintenance, which increased absolute all‑in sustaining costs quarter‑on‑quarter and reduced inventory credit.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full‑Year Copper Production Within Guidance
FY2025 copper production of 11,315 tonnes, within guidance range of 11,000–11,500 tonnes.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for 2026: copper production 12,750–14,000 tonnes (supported by a targeted mining rate of 1.7–1.8 Mtpa and a 1.8 Mtpa H2 run‑rate), all‑in sustaining costs AUD 5.75–6.25 per pound of payable copper sold (note 2025 AISC USD 4.29/lb within USD 4.20–4.45 guidance and Q4 AISC USD 4.03/lb = AUD 6.30), major capital AUD 8–10 million (vs $21m major and $20.5m sustaining capex invested in 2025), Nugent now in production driving higher H2 gold (2025 gold 2,249 oz, Q4 753 oz, ~55% recovery planned and gold grade expected to nearly double in H2), FY2025 copper 11,315 t (within 11,000–11,500 guidance) and Q4 copper 2,962 t (3,121 t payable sold at an average realized AUD 14,754/t), company liquidity $30.8m (cash $20.6m), operating cash flow $12.7m Q4 and $35.8m FY, 3,560 t of hedges outstanding at a weighted AUD 14,459/t for Jan–Sep 2026, and a 2025 reserve/resource of 4 Mt ore reserve (34,000 t Cu, 29,000 oz Au) and 22 Mt mineral resource (160,000 t Cu, 120,000 oz Au).Hillgrove Resources Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
42
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 167.62M | 112.39M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 29.82M | 1.46M | -5.98M | -165.00K | -2.00K |
| EBITDA | 27.11M | 21.24M | -12.68M | -4.46M | -5.43M |
| Net Income | 92.00K | -24.03M | -16.33M | -5.97M | -5.86M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 150.24M | 107.39M | 101.06M | 52.90M | 51.29M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 20.95M | 3.26M | 10.24M | 5.30M | 10.74M |
| Total Debt | 4.59M | 8.69M | 19.30M | 7.20M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 54.22M | 65.81M | 46.18M | 20.33M | 13.35M |
| Stockholders Equity | 96.03M | 41.57M | 54.88M | 32.57M | 37.94M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -19.10M | -11.22M | -31.29M | -13.58M | -14.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 20.73M | 21.00M | -8.78M | -5.71M | -4.89M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -40.31M | -32.02M | -22.46M | -5.57M | -9.39M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 37.27M | 4.04M | 36.17M | 5.89M | 19.42M |
Hillgrove Resources Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
0.04
Price Trends
0.04
Positive
0.04
Positive
0.04
Positive
Market Momentum
<0.01
Negative
53.21
Neutral
63.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:HGO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.05, below the 50-day MA of 0.04, and below the 200-day MA of 0.04, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:HGO.
Hillgrove Resources Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | AU$9.68B | 47.60 | 7.70% | ― | 19.97% | 60.66% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | AU$190.64M | 2,003.92 | 0.12% | ― | 49.14% | ― | |
51 Neutral | AU$219.67M | -12.17 | -14.19% | ― | ― | 78.60% | |
50 Neutral | AU$431.72M | -35.40 | -3.91% | ― | ― | 17.44% | |
48 Neutral | AU$68.37M | -1.97 | -37.71% | ― | -100.00% | 98.64% | |
44 Neutral | AU$162.04M | -12.60 | -242.58% | ― | ― | -79.69% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:HGO
Hillgrove Resources Limited
0.05
0.02
58.82%
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Hillgrove Resources Limited Corporate Events
Hillgrove Confirms High-Grade Emily Star Results as It Advances Stage 2 Decision at Kanmantoo
Jun 16, 2026
Hillgrove Resources has reported further high-grade copper-gold intersections from underground drilling at the Emily Star prospect within the Kanmantoo Copper Mine, with recent holes confirming consistent mineralisation. These results strengthen t...
Hillgrove Resources Director Derek Carter Granted Additional Performance Rights
May 29, 2026
Hillgrove Resources has reported a change in director Derek Carter’s indirect interest in the company’s securities, following the issue of additional performance rights. Carter holds these interests through the Salamanca Superannuation...
Hillgrove Issues New Shares for Mutooroo Copper Farm-In and Confirms Compliance
May 29, 2026
Hillgrove Resources has issued 116,279,070 fully paid ordinary shares in connection with its Mutooroo Copper Project Farm-In Agreement, expanding its capital base to support the development of this copper asset. The company confirmed the shares we...
Hillgrove Completes Stage 1 Mutooroo Deal and Launches PFS
May 29, 2026
Hillgrove Resources has completed the Stage 1 consideration payment to Havilah Resources for the Mutooroo Copper Project, issuing 116,279,070 shares and an equal number of unlisted options in lieu of a A$5 million cash payment. The securities are ...
Hillgrove Resources Issues Over 116 Million Unquoted Long-Dated Options
May 29, 2026
Hillgrove Resources Limited has notified the market of the issue of 116,279,070 unquoted options, each expiring on 29 June 2028, under a new class of securities that will not be quoted on the ASX. The options, issued on 29 May 2026, form part of p...
Hillgrove Resources Seeks Quotation for 116 Million New Shares on ASX
May 29, 2026
Hillgrove Resources Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 116,279,070 ordinary fully paid shares, with an issue date of May 29, 2026. The additional quoted securities expand the company’s listed share base, potentially affecting li...
Hillgrove Resources Issues 36.7 Million Performance Rights Under Incentive Scheme
May 28, 2026
Hillgrove Resources has notified the market of the issue of 36,682,009 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, effective 28 May 2026. The substantial grant of performance rights underscores the company’s reliance on ...
Hillgrove Investors Back Board and Incentives but Reject Extra Placement Capacity
May 26, 2026
Hillgrove Resources shareholders have approved most resolutions put to the company’s Annual General Meeting held on 26 May 2026, including the adoption of the remuneration report and the re-election of director Roger Higgins. Investors also ...
Hillgrove Targets Multi-Source Copper Growth After Transformative Year
May 26, 2026
Hillgrove Resources reported a transformative year marked by its first full year of consistent underground production at Kanmantoo and the successful establishment of a second mining front at Nugent. Capital raisings via institutional placements a...
Hillgrove Resources Updates Terms and Timing of Planned Securities Issue
May 25, 2026
Hillgrove Resources Limited has updated its previously announced proposed issue of securities, lodged as an Appendix 3B with the ASX, noting changes to the conditions and the expected issue date. The revised filing confirms that the securities wil...
Hillgrove Resources Plans Major Share and Option Placement to Expand Capital Base
May 21, 2026
Hillgrove Resources Limited has outlined plans for a new capital raising, proposing the issue of 116,279,070 ordinary fully paid shares and an equal number of options expiring on 30 July 2028 with an exercise price of A$0.052. The placement, sched...
Hillgrove to Earn 80% of Mutooroo Copper via Low-Capex Partnership with Havilah
May 21, 2026
Hillgrove Resources and Havilah Resources have entered into a binding farm-in agreement giving Hillgrove the right to earn an 80% interest in Havilah’s Mutooroo Copper Project in South Australia, structured as an unincorporated joint venture...
Ariadne Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Hillgrove Resources
May 6, 2026
Hillgrove Resources has disclosed that a group of entities associated with Ariadne Australia Limited has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 4 May 2026. The notice signals a reduction in Ariadne’s voting interest belo...
Hillgrove Resources Options Lapse, Trimming Potential Share Dilution
Apr 29, 2026
Hillgrove Resources has reported a change in its capital structure following the expiry of a large tranche of options. A total of 35 million HGOAZ options, which were due to expire on 28 April 2026 with an exercise price of $0.0795, have lapsed wi...
Hillgrove Resources Links Sustainability and Performance in 2025 Report
Apr 23, 2026
Hillgrove Resources has released its combined 2025 Annual and Sustainability Report, outlining the operations, activities and financial position of the company and its subsidiaries as at 31 December 2025. The report consolidates financial, operati...
Hillgrove lifts record copper output and cash as Kanmantoo ramp-up gathers pace
Apr 21, 2026
Hillgrove Resources reported a record March quarter with copper production rising to 3,120 tonnes, marking a fourth consecutive quarterly increase as the Kanmantoo operation continues its ramp-up. The company maintained all-in-sustaining costs wit...
Hillgrove Resources Sets Date for March Quarter Report and Investor Webinar
Apr 16, 2026
Hillgrove Resources will release its March 2026 Quarterly Activity Report to the ASX before the market opens on 22 April 2026, providing investors with an update on the company’s recent operational and financial performance. The company̵...
Hillgrove sets first Kanappa exploration target and secures drilling approval
Apr 15, 2026
Hillgrove Resources has defined its first Exploration Target for the southern area of the Kanappa prospect, estimating 5.8–11.5 million tonnes grading 0.2–0.8% copper and 0.05–0.1 g/t gold in a conceptual porphyry-style system. T...
Hillgrove Resources Cuts Potential Dilution as Performance Rights Lapse
Mar 30, 2026
Hillgrove Resources Limited has reported the cessation of 9,731,135 performance rights (ASX code HGOAA) following the lapse of conditional rights that could not be, or were no longer capable of being, satisfied. The cancellation of these rights re...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.