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Rio Tinto Limited (AU:RIO)
ASX:RIO
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Rio Tinto Limited (RIO) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:RIO

Rio Tinto Limited

(Sydney:RIO)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
AU$127.00
▲(8.33% Upside)
Rio Tinto Limited's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and attractive valuation, supported by strategic diversification and resilience in the face of market challenges. The earnings call provided positive guidance, particularly in growth segments like copper and aluminum. Technical indicators are mixed but suggest potential buying opportunities.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Analyst is buy rated on Rio Tinto due to attractive free cash flow and dividend yield, along with bullish outlook on copper and aluminium.
Growth Projects
Key growth projects are on track, including Oyu Tolgoi and Simandou, with first shipments expected in 2026.
Investment Potential
Rio Tinto Ltd continues to offer a compelling investment case among diversified miners.
Negative Factors
Cost Pressures
Iron ore unit costs are expected to rise above consensus due to sticky wage inflation.
Operating Challenges
Operating challenges at Kennecott have been well-flagged, in our view, and should factor in copper guidance.
Production Shortfalls
Rio Tinto reported slightly lower than expected production in iron ore, aluminium, and copper, which were 2-3% below estimates.

Rio Tinto Limited (RIO) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Rio Tinto Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRio Tinto Limited (RIO) is a leading global mining group, committed to the exploration, mining, and processing of the Earth's mineral resources. The company operates across several sectors, including aluminum, copper, diamonds, energy, and iron ore. With a rich heritage dating back to 1873, Rio Tinto is renowned for its diverse portfolio of high-quality assets, innovative technologies, and sustainable mining practices, playing a crucial role in the supply chain of essential materials for industries worldwide.
How the Company Makes MoneyRio Tinto Limited generates revenue primarily through the extraction, production, and sale of a variety of mineral and metal products. The company's key revenue streams include iron ore, which is used extensively in steelmaking, and accounts for the largest portion of its earnings. Additionally, Rio Tinto produces significant amounts of aluminum, copper, and diamonds. The company benefits from long-term contracts and strategic partnerships with global industrial players, ensuring a stable demand for its products. Moreover, Rio Tinto's investment in technology and sustainable practices enhances its operational efficiency and competitiveness, further contributing to its financial performance.

Rio Tinto Limited Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong performance in terms of production growth, financial stability, and strategic diversification, particularly in the copper and aluminum segments. However, this was somewhat offset by challenges related to declining iron ore prices, production disruptions due to weather, and ongoing cost pressures.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Consistent Production Growth
Copper equivalent production increased by 1% in 2024, with a mid-range guidance indicating another 4% growth led by the ramp-up of Oyu Tolgoi. A decade of 3% compound annual production growth is projected.
Strong Financial Performance
Operating cash flow increased by 3% with a 67% EBITDA cash conversion rate. The company maintained a 60% payout for the ordinary dividend, equating to $6.5 billion, marking the ninth consecutive year at the top end of the range.
Strategic Diversification
The company is diversifying towards copper, aluminum, and lithium, with the acquisition of Arcadium Lithium enhancing future growth prospects.
Decarbonization Progress
Emissions were reduced by 14% between 2018 and 2024, with significant progress towards the 2030 target of a 50% emissions cut.
Negative Updates
Iron Ore Price Decline
Underlying EBITDA was down 2% to $23.3 billion, largely due to an 11% lower iron ore price.
Challenges with Iron Ore Production
Adverse weather conditions, including tropical cyclones, impacted first-quarter production and shipment volumes in the Pilbara region.
Cost Pressures
Sustained inflationary pressures and cost increases, particularly in the iron ore segment, have led to higher production costs.
Company Guidance
During the call, Jakob Stausholm detailed Rio Tinto's guidance for 2024, highlighting significant growth and operational improvements. The company achieved a 1% increase in copper equivalent production for 2024 and anticipates an additional 4% growth this year, primarily driven by the ramp-up of Oyu Tolgoi. Excluding the acquisition of Arcadium Lithium, this growth is expected to continue organically, contributing to a projected decade-long compound annual production growth rate of 3%. Financially, despite an 11% drop in iron ore prices, the company managed to limit the decrease in underlying EBITDA to just 2%, totaling $23.3 billion, thanks to a strong performance in the aluminum and copper divisions. Operating cash flow increased by 3%, with a 67% EBITDA cash conversion rate. The company maintained a robust balance sheet with $5.5 billion in net debt and declared a 60% payout for the ordinary dividend, equating to $6.5 billion, marking the ninth consecutive year of such returns. This resilience is further backed by a diversified portfolio and disciplined cost management, as evidenced by a 4% reduction in copper unit costs and a 3% reduction in group-wide functional costs year-on-year. Additionally, Rio Tinto is on track with its decarbonization efforts, having cut emissions by 14% between 2018 and 2024, setting the stage for achieving a 50% reduction by 2030.

Rio Tinto Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Rio Tinto Limited shows strong financial performance with efficient operations and solid margins. The company maintains a stable balance sheet with low leverage and a strong equity base. However, concerns over recent revenue declines and reduced free cash flow should be monitored.
Income Statement
80
Positive
Rio Tinto Limited has demonstrated solid financial performance. The gross profit margin stands at 56.4%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is at 21.5%, slightly lower than previous years, suggesting increased expenses or lower revenue efficiency. The company experienced a slight revenue decline of 0.71% compared to the previous year, which could be a concern if this trend continues. Nonetheless, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 29.2% and 43.2%, respectively, reflecting good operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet of Rio Tinto Limited is robust, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.25, indicating a conservative approach to leverage. The equity ratio is healthy at 53.8%, which suggests financial stability and a strong capital base. Return on equity is 20.9%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. Despite these strengths, the total equity has shown minimal growth, which may limit future financial flexibility.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
The cash flow situation is stable, with a free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.52, indicating adequate cash generation relative to profits. However, the free cash flow has decreased by 25.9% compared to the previous year, which could impact future investment capacity if not improved. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 1.35, reflecting strong cash earnings capacity.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue53.66B54.04B55.55B63.49B44.61B
Gross Profit30.28B17.30B21.30B31.34B18.70B
EBITDA23.16B21.08B22.35B33.60B21.51B
Net Income11.55B10.06B12.42B21.09B9.77B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets102.79B103.55B96.74B102.90B97.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments7.20B9.78B8.91B15.29B13.06B
Total Debt13.86B14.35B12.27B13.53B13.83B
Total Liabilities44.82B47.21B44.47B46.31B45.49B
Stockholders Equity55.25B54.59B50.17B51.43B47.05B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow5.98B8.07B9.38B17.96B9.69B
Operating Cash Flow15.60B15.16B16.13B25.34B15.88B
Investing Cash Flow-9.59B-6.96B-6.71B-7.16B-6.56B
Financing Cash Flow-7.09B-5.28B-15.47B-15.86B-7.13B

Rio Tinto Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price117.23
Price Trends
50DMA
112.13
Positive
100DMA
111.20
Positive
200DMA
112.00
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.25
Negative
RSI
63.29
Neutral
STOCH
85.69
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:RIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 117.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 114.82, above the 50-day MA of 112.13, and above the 200-day MA of 112.00, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.69 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:RIO.

Rio Tinto Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$164.46B12.0318.11%4.91%0.38%-3.57%
62
Neutral
$10.37B6.450.80%2.84%3.09%-36.03%
£5.77B28.743.64%4.26%
$138.75B23.0519.09%4.15%
$38.13B11.5317.06%5.34%
$2.41B1,408.33-35.65%6.60%
$4.75B7.94-26.55%4.54%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:RIO
Rio Tinto Limited
118.21
16.75
16.51%
GB:S32
South32
128.80
-18.68
-12.67%
BHPLF
BHP Group Ltd
27.08
3.64
15.53%
FSUMF
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd
12.35
2.28
22.64%
IPGDF
IGO
3.24
-0.24
-6.90%
MALRF
Mineral Resources Limited
22.31
3.58
19.11%

Rio Tinto Limited Corporate Events

Rio Tinto Director Increases Shareholding, Signaling Confidence
Aug 4, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, with Ben Wyatt acquiring an additional 200 ordinary shares through an on-market trade, increasing his total holdings to 700 shares. This acquisition reflects the director’s growing confidence in the company’s performance and may positively influence stakeholder perceptions of Rio Tinto’s market stability and future prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Unveils 2025 Half-Year Financial Results
Jul 30, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited announced its 2025 half-year results presentation, which will be delivered by the company’s Chief Executive and Chief Financial Officer. This presentation is significant as it provides insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction, potentially impacting its market position and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Announces USD 1.48 Dividend for Shareholders
Jul 30, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited has announced a new dividend distribution of USD 1.48 per ordinary fully paid share, covering a six-month period ending on June 30, 2025. The ex-date for the dividend is set for August 14, 2025, with a record date of August 15, 2025, and payment scheduled for September 25, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to shareholders and may impact its financial positioning positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Reports Strong Financial Performance Amidst Market Challenges
Jul 30, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited has reported resilient financial results for the first half of 2025, with a 6% increase in copper equivalent production year-on-year. Despite a 13% drop in iron ore prices and disruptions from cyclones, the company achieved an underlying EBITDA of $11.5 billion and operating cash flow of $6.9 billion. The company has maintained its 50% interim payout policy, declaring a $2.4 billion ordinary dividend. Key achievements include the acceleration of the Simandou project, the opening of the Western Range iron ore project, and the completion of the Arcadium Lithium acquisition. These developments, alongside a diversified portfolio and strong operational performance, position Rio Tinto for continued growth and value generation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Issues New Share Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Jul 24, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited has announced the issuance of 219,222 share rights under an employee incentive scheme, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX. This move is part of the company’s strategy to incentivize employees and align their interests with the company’s long-term goals, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Updates on Employee Share Plans
Jul 22, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited has announced updates regarding its Global Employee Share Plan (myShare) and UK Share Plan (UKSP), which allow employees to purchase company shares with matching shares awarded based on specific conditions. On 18 July 2025, several key management personnel received vested matching shares under myShare, some of which were sold to cover taxes and deductions. Additionally, on 17 July 2025, key personnel acquired shares under both myShare and UKSP, reflecting the company’s commitment to employee investment and engagement. These plans are part of Rio Tinto’s strategy to align employee interests with company performance, potentially enhancing stakeholder value and employee retention.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Vanguard Group Acquires Substantial Stake in Rio Tinto Limited
Jul 20, 2025

The Vanguard Group has become a substantial holder in Rio Tinto Limited, with a 5.001% voting power as of July 15, 2025. This development signifies a significant investment by Vanguard, potentially impacting Rio Tinto’s shareholder dynamics and reflecting confidence in the company’s market position and future prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Reports Strong Q2 2025 Production Results with Strategic Growth Initiatives
Jul 15, 2025

Rio Tinto has reported a 13% year-on-year increase in copper equivalent production for the second quarter of 2025, driven by strong performance in its copper business and contributions from the Arcadium acquisition. The company achieved record production levels in its bauxite operations and significant progress in its Pilbara iron ore and Simandou projects. Rio Tinto’s strategic focus on growth and diversification is evident in its efforts to ramp up the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine and establish a world-class lithium business. The company’s operational success is expected to positively impact its market positioning and stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Appoints Simon Trott as New Chief Executive
Jul 15, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the appointment of Simon Trott as the new Chief Executive, effective August 25, 2025, succeeding Jakob Stausholm. Trott, who has been instrumental in enhancing the Iron Ore division’s performance and stakeholder relationships, is expected to lead the company into its next phase of growth, focusing on operational performance and value creation for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Issues New Employee Share Rights
Jul 11, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited has announced the issuance of 2,054 share rights under an employee incentive scheme, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX. This move reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to incentivize its workforce, potentially impacting employee engagement and retention positively, while aligning their interests with the company’s long-term goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Announces Director’s Share Acquisition
Jun 26, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest notice involving Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz. The notice details her indirect acquisition of 384 ordinary shares in the company through an on-market trade, increasing her total holdings to 2,458 shares. This development reflects ongoing changes in the company’s leadership shareholdings, which may influence stakeholder perceptions and the company’s governance dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto and Hancock Prospecting Invest $1.6 Billion in Hope Downs 2 Project
Jun 24, 2025

Rio Tinto and Hancock Prospecting have announced a $1.6 billion investment to develop the Hope Downs 2 iron ore project in Western Australia’s Pilbara region, with Rio Tinto contributing $0.8 billion. The project, which has received all necessary government approvals, will include two new iron ore pits with a combined annual production capacity of 31 million tonnes. This development is part of Rio Tinto’s strategy to sustain Pilbara production, supporting local jobs and economies. The project will create over 950 construction jobs and sustain around 1000 full-time roles once operational, with first ore expected in 2027. Rio Tinto is also engaging with local Indigenous groups and government stakeholders to manage heritage and environmental concerns responsibly.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Reports Key Management Share Dealings
May 28, 2025

Rio Tinto plc has notified the London Stock Exchange of share dealings by key management personnel in compliance with the EU Market Abuse Regulation. Joc O’Rourke, a person discharging managerial responsibility, acquired 3,000 American Depository Receipts of Rio Tinto plc on the New York Stock Exchange, highlighting the company’s adherence to regulatory requirements and transparency in its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Announces CEO Succession Plan Amid Strategic Growth
May 22, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the upcoming departure of its Chief Executive, Jakob Stausholm, who will step down later this year following a succession process. Under Stausholm’s leadership, the company has realigned its strategy to focus on energy transition opportunities, restored stakeholder trust, and set a path for profitable growth. The company is now in the process of selecting a new leader to continue enhancing operational performance and maximizing asset potential, maintaining its strategic priorities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 09, 2025