Rio Tinto Limited (RIO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$221.75B
• Dividend Yield: 3.93%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.61
• Revenue Growth: 0.38%
• EPS Growth: -3.57%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 60,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 4.24
• Shares Outstanding: 371,346,220
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,400,844
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,281,895
• PEG Ratio: 0.66
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.14
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.20
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.74
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$143.16
• Price Target Upside: -4.55% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$174.00 ▲(16.02% Upside)

Rio Tinto Limited's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance and positive technical indicators. The company benefits from a robust balance sheet and attractive dividend yield. However, recent revenue declines and reduced free cash flow are concerns that need addressing to sustain growth.

Positive Factors

Conservative leverage and strong capital base

Low leverage and a healthy equity ratio provide durable financial resilience across commodity cycles. A debt-to-equity of 0.25 and strong ROE mean the company can fund maintenance capex, sustain dividends and withstand downturns without urgent recapitalisation, preserving long-term optionality.

High operational margins

Robust gross and EBITDA margins reflect low-cost, large-scale operations and efficient processing. Sustained margin levels support strong cash generation and buffer profitability during commodity price volatility, enabling reinvestment in assets and consistent returns over multiple quarters.

Diversified commodity exposure and scale

Broad exposure to iron ore, copper and aluminium coupled with large-scale assets reduces reliance on any single commodity cycle. This structural diversification and integrated supply capabilities (mining, processing, logistics) supports more stable volumes and revenue sources over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Falling free cash flow

A 25.9% drop in free cash flow signals weakening cash available for growth, dividends or debt reduction. Even with adequate operating cash conversion, persistent FCF declines can constrain capital allocation choices and delay new projects or share returns if not reversed.

Slight revenue decline and lower net margin

A year-over-year revenue decline and a reduced net margin indicate emerging pressure on top-line or cost absorption. If this trend persists, it can erode earnings power and limit funding for long-life projects, making long-term growth and payout sustainability harder to maintain.

Minimal equity growth limiting flexibility

Stagnant equity growth can restrict balance-sheet strength over time, reducing headroom for large capital projects or acquisitions without tapping external funding. In cyclical industries, limited equity expansion can force reliance on markets during downturns, raising financing risk.

Rio Tinto Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Rio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company offers aluminum, copper, diamonds, gold, borates, titanium dioxide, salt, iron ore, and lithium. It also owns and operates open pit and underground mines, mills, refineries, smelters, power stations, and research and service facilities. Rio Tinto Group was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Rio Tinto generates revenue primarily through the sale of its mined products, which include iron ore, aluminum, copper, diamonds, and various industrial minerals. The company’s key revenue streams are dominated by iron ore sales, which contribute a significant portion of its total earnings due to high global demand, particularly from countries like China. Additionally, Rio Tinto earns money from its aluminum segment, which includes bauxite mining and alumina refining, as well as from copper operations that serve various industrial applications. The company also engages in joint ventures and partnerships, such as its collaborations with other mining firms and local governments, which can enhance operational efficiencies and expand its market reach. Factors contributing to Rio Tinto’s earnings include global commodity prices, production volumes, and operational cost management.

Rio Tinto Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Rio Tinto Limited shows strong financial performance with efficient operations and solid margins. The balance sheet is robust with low leverage and a strong equity base. However, concerns exist over recent revenue declines and reduced free cash flow, which could impact future growth.

Income Statement

Rio Tinto Limited has demonstrated solid financial performance. The gross profit margin stands at 56.4%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is at 21.5%, slightly lower than previous years, suggesting increased expenses or lower revenue efficiency. The company experienced a slight revenue decline of 0.71% compared to the previous year, which could be a concern if this trend continues. Nonetheless, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 29.2% and 43.2%, respectively, reflecting good operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Rio Tinto Limited is robust, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.25, indicating a conservative approach to leverage. The equity ratio is healthy at 53.8%, which suggests financial stability and a strong capital base. Return on equity is 20.9%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. Despite these strengths, the total equity has shown minimal growth, which may limit future financial flexibility.

Cash Flow

The cash flow situation is stable, with a free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.52, indicating adequate cash generation relative to profits. However, the free cash flow has decreased by 25.9% compared to the previous year, which could impact future investment capacity if not improved. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 1.35, reflecting strong cash earnings capacity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	53.73B	53.66B	54.04B	55.55B	63.49B	44.61B
Gross Profit	29.00B	30.28B	17.30B	21.30B	31.34B	18.70B
EBITDA	22.31B	23.16B	21.08B	22.71B	33.93B	21.51B
Net Income	10.27B	11.55B	10.06B	12.42B	21.09B	9.77B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	120.81B	102.79B	103.55B	96.74B	102.90B	97.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	9.33B	7.20B	9.78B	8.91B	15.29B	12.76B
Total Debt	23.64B	13.86B	14.35B	12.27B	13.53B	13.83B
Total Liabilities	58.84B	44.82B	47.21B	44.47B	46.31B	45.49B
Stockholders Equity	58.20B	55.25B	54.59B	50.63B	51.43B	47.05B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	5.13B	5.98B	8.07B	9.38B	17.96B	9.69B
Operating Cash Flow	15.47B	15.60B	15.16B	16.13B	25.34B	15.88B
Investing Cash Flow	-17.27B	-9.59B	-6.96B	-6.71B	-7.16B	-6.56B
Financing Cash Flow	1.53B	-7.09B	-5.28B	-15.47B	-15.86B	-7.13B

Rio Tinto Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 149.98
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:RIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 149.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 149.62, above the 50-day MA of 142.72, and above the 200-day MA of 122.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.59 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:RIO.

Rio Tinto Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RIO	78 Outperform	AU$221.75B	15.55	18.11%	3.93%	0.38%	-3.57%
FMG	76 Outperform	$64.62B	12.40	17.06%	4.96%	-13.65%	-39.85%
BHP	68 Neutral	$256.78B	18.42	19.51%	3.75%	-6.74%	15.92%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
S32	59 Neutral	AU$20.67B	51.91	3.64%	2.67%	6.53%	―
MIN	58 Neutral	AU$11.21B	-12.18	-26.55%	―	-15.27%	-817.26%
IGO	49 Neutral	AU$6.29B	-6.69	-35.65%	―	-37.23%	-32433.33%

Rio Tinto Limited Corporate Events

Rio Tinto Concert Party Discloses Shareholdings and Awarded Equity in Takeover Filing

A disclosure filing under the UK Takeover Code shows that Peter Cunningham, a person acting in concert with Rio Tinto plc and Rio Tinto Limited in relation to an offer, holds an interest in 79,216.912673 Rio Tinto plc 10p ordinary shares, including a portion held by a close relative, with no reported short positions or cash-settled derivatives. The filing also details Cunningham’s rights to subscribe for additional Rio Tinto plc shares through various bonus deferral awards, the Global Employee Share Plan and an equity incentive plan, underlining the breadth of his equity-linked exposure to the company during an offer period and providing transparency to investors and regulators about insider and concert party holdings.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$171.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Files Amended Opening Position Disclosure Under Takeover Code

Rio Tinto has filed an amended public opening position disclosure under UK takeover rules, confirming that as offeror it currently holds no relevant securities, derivatives or short positions in Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited beyond ordinary shareholdings by its directors and related parties. The filing details only de minimis director shareholdings and clarifies that there are no rights to subscribe for new securities, signalling a neutral starting position in terms of control or leverage over the relevant securities as formal offer-related disclosures commence, which may be closely watched by investors and regulators for any subsequent changes in ownership or derivative positions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$171.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Reports Routine Executive Share Acquisitions Under Employee Plans

Rio Tinto has disclosed routine dealings in its securities by persons discharging managerial responsibility and key management personnel under its Global Employee Share Plan (myShare) and the UK Share Plan. On 19 January 2026, senior executives including Peter Cunningham, Katie Jackson and Jérôme Pécresse acquired small numbers of Rio Tinto plc shares through salary deductions and received an equivalent number of matching share awards, reflecting the company’s ongoing use of equity-based incentives to align management and employee interests with shareholder value, rather than signalling any strategic change or material shift in ownership.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$165.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto to List 130,000 New Shares from Employee Incentive Scheme on ASX

Rio Tinto Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 130,000 new ordinary fully paid shares to be issued on 14 January 2026 under an employee incentive scheme. The modest size of this issuance suggests a routine equity allocation to staff rather than a capital-raising event, incrementally increasing the company’s quoted share count while aligning employee interests with shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Hold with a A$129.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Issues 167,953 New Shares Following Conversion of Unquoted Securities

Rio Tinto Limited has notified the market of the issue of 167,953 fully paid ordinary shares arising from the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted equity securities, effective 31 December 2025. The modest increase in issued capital reflects the crystallisation of unquoted options or convertible instruments, signalling ongoing use of equity-based incentives or financing structures but with no indication in the filing of any material change to the company’s overall capital position or operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Hold with a A$130.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Issues 194,103 Unquoted Share Rights Under Employee Incentive Plan

Rio Tinto Limited has notified the ASX of the issue of 194,103 unquoted share rights under its employee incentive scheme, effective 31 December 2025, via an Appendix 3G filing. The issuance of these unquoted equity securities reflects the company’s ongoing use of long-term incentives to align employee and executive remuneration with shareholder interests, without diluting the quoted share capital on the exchange, and underscores continued emphasis on performance-based compensation structures within the resources sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Hold with a A$130.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Reports Lapse of 83,169 Conditional Share Rights

Rio Tinto Limited has notified the market that 83,169 share rights, trading under the ASX code RIOAL, have lapsed as of 31 December 2025 because the conditions attached to those rights were not, or could no longer be, satisfied. The cessation of these conditional securities marginally reduces the company’s potential future share issuance under that particular rights program and reflects the performance or service conditions embedded in its equity-based remuneration or incentive structures.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Hold with a A$130.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Sets Out 2026 Dividend and Results Timetable

Rio Tinto has released its key financial calendar dates for 2026, outlining the timetable for the company’s 2025 final dividend and 2026 interim dividend. The schedule includes dates for full-year and half-year results announcements, ex-dividend and record dates for both ordinary shares and ADRs, deadlines for participation in dividend reinvestment plans and alternative currency elections, and payment dates for both the final and interim dividends. The company also noted that annual general meeting dates will be confirmed later, giving investors and stakeholders clearer visibility over Rio Tinto’s 2026 reporting and capital return timetable.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Hold with a A$140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Confirms Early-Stage Merger Talks With Glencore

Rio Tinto has confirmed that it is in preliminary discussions with Glencore over a potential combination of some or all of their businesses, which could involve an all-share merger implemented via a Court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement resulting in Rio Tinto acquiring Glencore. While the talks could reshape the global mining landscape and materially expand Rio Tinto’s portfolio and scale, the company stressed there is no certainty an offer will be made or what its terms might be, and it has until 5 February 2026 to announce a firm intention to bid or walk away under UK takeover rules, with further updates to be provided as appropriate.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Hold with a A$140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Updates Director’s Equity Holdings

Rio Tinto Limited announced changes in the director’s interest notice for Simon Trott, reflecting adjustments in his equity holdings under the company’s Equity Incentive Plan. The changes involve the acquisition and disposal of awards and shares, primarily due to the vesting of Bonus Deferral Awards (BDA) and the subsequent tax implications. This update is part of routine disclosures under corporate governance requirements, ensuring transparency in director dealings.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Hold with a A$130.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Announces Vesting of Bonus Deferral Awards for Key Executives

Rio Tinto Limited announced the vesting of Bonus Deferral Awards (BDA) for its key management personnel, as part of its 2018 Equity Incentive Plan. The awards, which are delivered as deferred ordinary shares, saw a portion sold to cover taxes and deductions, with the remainder retained by the executives. This move reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning management incentives with shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Hold with a A$129.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Reports Initial Lithium Resource and Reserve Estimates

Rio Tinto has announced the initial reporting of Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves for seven lithium assets acquired from Arcadium Lithium. These assets include four lithium brines deposits in Argentina and three hard rock spodumene deposits in Canada and Australia. This announcement positions Rio Tinto to strengthen its presence in the lithium market, which is vital for the growing demand in electric vehicle batteries. The detailed reporting of these resources and reserves highlights the company’s strategic focus on expanding its lithium production capabilities, potentially impacting its market positioning and offering significant opportunities for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Hold with a A$129.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Reports Initial Lithium Resources and Reserves

Rio Tinto has announced the initial reporting of Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves for seven lithium assets acquired through the purchase of Arcadium Lithium. These assets include four lithium brine deposits in Argentina and three hard rock spodumene deposits in Canada and Australia. This marks the first time Rio Tinto is reporting these resources in compliance with the JORC Code and ASX Listing Rules. The announcement highlights Rio Tinto’s strategic expansion into the lithium market, which is crucial for the growing demand in electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy storage. This move is expected to strengthen the company’s position in the lithium industry and provide significant opportunities for growth and development.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Hold with a A$129.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Highlights Strategic Focus Amid Industry Challenges

Rio Tinto’s recent presentation at the Capital Markets Day highlighted the company’s strategic focus and the challenges it faces, including geopolitical impacts, climate change, and technological advancements. The company emphasized the importance of managing risks and uncertainties to maintain its industry position and meet stakeholder expectations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Hold with a A$129.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Unveils Strategic Plan for Enhanced Returns and Growth

Rio Tinto has announced a strategic plan to enhance its operations by becoming stronger, sharper, and simpler, aiming to deliver industry-leading returns. The company is focusing on operational excellence, project execution, and capital discipline to drive growth and improve productivity. Key initiatives include a 7% production growth expected in 2025, significant productivity benefits, and the opportunistic release of $5-10 billion from existing assets. The strategy also involves upgrading production guidance for copper and bauxite, while maintaining a strong balance sheet and a commitment to decarbonization. These efforts are designed to position Rio Tinto as the most valued metals and mining company, benefiting shareholders, employees, partners, and communities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Hold with a A$129.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.