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Rio Tinto Limited
(OTC:RIO)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
AU$187.00
â–²(7.63% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:03/26/26
The score is driven mainly by solid underlying financial performance and a supportive valuation (mid-teens P/E with a ~3.9% yield). This is tempered by weaker recent cash conversion/free cash flow and current negative/weak technical momentum. The latest earnings call was broadly constructive on productivity and long-term growth, but elevated CapEx, moderated near-term volumes, and the Simandou safety incident add risk.
Positive Factors
Project pipeline & production growth
Major project milestones (Oyu Tolgoi underground, Simandou first shipment and material completion progress, and lithium project build) represent durable capacity adds. These long‑lived assets should underpin multi‑year production growth and diversify revenue across iron, copper and battery materials, reducing reliance on any single commodity cycle.
Negative Factors
Elevated near‑term CapEx
A sustained high CapEx program (~$11bn p.a.) to fund major projects increases cash absorption for multiple years. This structural capital intensity constrains free cash flow, limits optionality for buybacks or faster debt reduction, and raises execution risk if commodity prices or project timelines deteriorate.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Project pipeline & production growth
Major project milestones (Oyu Tolgoi underground, Simandou first shipment and material completion progress, and lithium project build) represent durable capacity adds. These long‑lived assets should underpin multi‑year production growth and diversify revenue across iron, copper and battery materials, reducing reliance on any single commodity cycle.
Read all positive factors
Rio Tinto Limited (RIO) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$223.90B
Dividend Yield3.93%
Average Volume (3M)1.34M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.2
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth9.79%
EPS Growth-11.91%
CountryAU
Employees60,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.20
Shares Outstanding371,821,230
10 Day Avg. Volume1,189,192
30 Day Avg. Volume1,335,318
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.43
Price to Book (P/B)2.56
Price to Sales (P/S)2.67
P/FCF Ratio31.96
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$172.90Price Target Upside-0.49% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)8.57
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$63.62B
Rio Tinto Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Globally, Rio Tinto Group's primary activities encompass the discovery, extraction, and refinement of various mineral deposits. Its comprehensive product portfolio features essential commodities like aluminum, copper, diamonds, gold, borates, tita...
How the Company Makes Money
Rio Tinto primarily makes money by extracting, processing, and selling mined commodities to industrial customers worldwide under a mix of spot-linked and contract pricing, with revenue largely driven by sales volumes and prevailing commodity price...
Rio Tinto Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong operational delivery and portfolio diversification-driven financial outperformance in 2025: production growth (8% copper equivalent), EBITDA growth (+9% to $25.4bn), major project milestones (OT underground complete; Simandou first shipment), disciplined capital allocation and robust shareholder returns (60% payout, $6.5bn). Management also identified and began delivering on $650m of productivity gains and expects materially higher cash improvements in 2026. Key challenges include a fatality at Simandou (stopped works and safety remediation), weaker iron ore earnings (EBITDA down 11%), elevated near‑term CapEx (~$11bn) and a modest rise in net debt to $14.4bn. Volume growth is expected to moderate to ~3% in 2026 with several asset curtailments and grade headwinds noted. On balance, the operational and financial positives and clear plans to drive further productivity and capital discipline outweigh the material but addressable lowlights.Positive Updates
Production Growth and Records
Copper equivalent production grew 8% in 2025 with annual records set for both copper and bauxite; Oyu Tolgoi shipments up 60% and underground development at OT completed, positioning ~500,000 tpa copper average between 2028–2036.
Negative Updates
Fatality and Safety Incident at Simandou
A colleague died at the Simandou site; all site works and construction activities were stopped, an independent internal/external investigation initiated and an independent safety advisory panel to be appointed — a material operational and reputational issue that may affect construction timelines and requires significant remediation.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Growth and Records
Copper equivalent production grew 8% in 2025 with annual records set for both copper and bauxite; Oyu Tolgoi shipments up 60% and underground development at OT completed, positioning ~500,000 tpa copper average between 2028–2036.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guidance centered on delivering the $650m annualized productivity run‑rate by end‑Q1 2026 and generating cash improvements in 2026 materially above that Q1 run‑rate, while targeting aggregate volume and cost gains (net of headwinds) that materially exceed the initial $650m; volume growth for 2026 is expected to be about 3% across managed operations (offset by closures at Arvida, Diavik, a mid‑year Yarwun curtailment and an expected grade decline at Escondida). They reiterated a 3% CAGR target for copper‑equivalent production to 2030, Oyu Tolgoi on track to average ~500,000 tpa copper (2028–2036), Simandou to ramp to 60 Mtpa iron ore, lithium in‑flight projects targeting ~200,000 tpa by 2028, and 85% of exploration spend to be directed to copper; Pilbara unit cost guidance is $23.50–$25/t (2025 at $23.50/t), copper unit costs expected to be comparable to 2025 after a 53% reduction in 2025, group CapEx guidance remains up to $11bn per year for the next two years before stepping down to ~$10bn, the company intends to pursue $5–$10bn of asset disposals, maintain its 40–60% dividend payout policy (60% paid again, $6.5bn), and preserve a single‑A credit posture with net debt around $14.4bn (gearing ~18%).Rio Tinto Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
73
Positive
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 59.65B | 53.66B | 54.04B | 55.55B | 63.49B |
| Gross Profit | 16.14B | 30.28B | 17.30B | 21.30B | 31.34B |
| EBITDA | 21.80B | 23.16B | 21.08B | 22.71B | 33.93B |
| Net Income | 10.31B | 11.55B | 10.06B | 12.42B | 21.09B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 128.19B | 102.79B | 103.55B | 96.74B | 102.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.45B | 7.20B | 9.78B | 8.91B | 15.29B |
| Total Debt | 23.52B | 13.86B | 14.35B | 12.27B | 13.53B |
| Total Liabilities | 61.12B | 44.82B | 47.21B | 44.47B | 46.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 62.24B | 55.25B | 54.59B | 50.63B | 51.43B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.98B | 5.98B | 8.07B | 9.38B | 17.96B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 17.74B | 15.60B | 15.16B | 16.13B | 25.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -18.32B | -9.59B | -6.96B | -6.71B | -7.16B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 876.54M | -7.09B | -5.28B | -15.47B | -15.86B |
Rio Tinto Limited Technical Analysis
Negative
173.75
Price Trends
179.15
Negative
170.79
Negative
153.01
Positive
Market Momentum
-4.68
Positive
36.76
Neutral
35.43
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:RIO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 173.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 172.78, below the 50-day MA of 179.15, and above the 200-day MA of 153.01, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.68 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:RIO.
Rio Tinto Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | AU$57.76B | 10.74 | 18.83% | 4.96% | 2.22% | -2.10% | |
72 Outperform | AU$296.41B | 20.77 | 21.41% | 3.75% | 2.98% | -8.26% | |
68 Neutral | AU$223.90B | 15.15 | 16.59% | 3.93% | 9.79% | -11.91% | |
63 Neutral | AU$17.76B | 42.22 | 3.36% | 2.67% | 2.25% | 97.21% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
55 Neutral | AU$11.44B | 29.52 | 11.50% | ― | 3.58% | ― | |
49 Neutral | AU$5.06B | -25.01 | -9.95% | ― | -36.60% | 80.62% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:RIO
Rio Tinto Limited
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60.00
57.92%
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AU:MIN
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113.33%
Rio Tinto Limited Corporate Events
Rio Tinto Director Ben Wyatt Increases Shareholding via On-Market Purchase
Jun 9, 2026
Rio Tinto Limited disclosed a change in director Ben Wyatt’s shareholding, with an on-market purchase of 300 ordinary shares on 9 June 2026. The transaction increased his direct holding from 1,000 to 1,300 Rio Tinto Limited shares, at a pric...
Rio Tinto CEO Addresses Bank of America Metals and Mining Conference
May 12, 2026
Rio Tinto said chief executive Simon Trott is presenting at the Bank of America Global Metals, Mining Steel Conference in Miami, underscoring the miner’s engagement with global capital markets and industry stakeholders. The company has made...
Rio Tinto Discloses PDMR Share Acquisition via Dividend Reinvestment Plan
May 12, 2026
Rio Tinto has reported to both the ASX and LSE that a person discharging managerial responsibility, Jennifer Nason, acquired additional Rio Tinto plc American Depositary Receipts through the company’s dividend reinvestment plan. The notifica...
Rio Tinto CEO Sets Growth Ambition on Safety, Productivity and Copper-Led Expansion
May 6, 2026
Rio Tinto’s chief executive used the 2026 AGM address to stress renewed focus on safety after three fatalities, committing leadership to strengthening critical controls and embedding a culture where protecting workers is paramount. He framed...
Rio Tinto Chair Sets Strategic Tone at 2026 Dual-Listed AGM
May 6, 2026
Rio Tinto’s chair Dominic Barton opened the 2026 dual-listed annual general meetings in Perth and London, highlighting a new contemporaneous format that enables broader shareholder participation and regular rotation of directors’ physi...
Rio Tinto Grants UK Share Plan Awards to Senior Executives
May 5, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed share dealings by persons discharging managerial responsibility and key management personnel under its HMRC-approved UK Share Plan, as required by its dual listing in London and Australia. Under the plan, qualifying UK empl...
Rio Tinto discloses updated shareholdings for executive Simon Trott
Apr 24, 2026
Rio Tinto Limited has disclosed a change in director Simon Trott’s interest in the company’s ordinary shares following his participation in a dividend reinvestment plan under the Rio Tinto Limited Global Employee Share Plan. Trott̵...
Rio Tinto reports executive share acquisitions under employee plans
Apr 23, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed routine share dealings by persons discharging managerial responsibility and key management personnel in line with its dual listing obligations in London and Australia. On 21 April 2026, Matthew Holcz and Simon Trott acquire...
Rio Tinto discloses executive dealings under global employee share plans
Apr 21, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed routine dealings in its securities by key management personnel under its global employee share schemes, in line with requirements of both the Australian and London stock exchanges. The update details how executives acquired...
Rio Tinto Reports Routine Executive Share Acquisitions via Dividend Reinvestment Plans
Apr 21, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed a series of routine share acquisitions by persons discharging managerial responsibility and key management personnel under its employee share plans, in line with its dual listing obligations in London and Australia. The tra...
Rio Tinto lifts Q1 output 9% as Simandou and Oyu Tolgoi drive growth
Apr 20, 2026
Rio Tinto reported a 9% year-on-year increase in copper-equivalent production for the first quarter of 2026, driven by the ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine, strong aluminium performance and robust Pilbara iron ore output, despite cyclone-rela...
Rio Tinto finalises details for 2025 fully franked final dividend and DRP
Apr 20, 2026
Rio Tinto Limited has updated its earlier dividend notification, confirming details for its 2025 final dividend on ordinary fully paid shares, relating to the six‑month period ended 31 December 2025. The company reiterated that the final div...
Rio Tinto Issues New Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Apr 15, 2026
Rio Tinto Limited has issued 156,231 new ordinary fully paid shares following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted options or other convertible securities. The new shares were issued on 31 March 2026 and are being notified to the mark...
Rio Tinto Issues Over 547,000 Unquoted Share Rights Under Staff Incentive Plan
Apr 15, 2026
Rio Tinto Limited has notified the market of the issue of 547,933 unquoted share rights under its employee incentive scheme. The securities, recorded under the ASX code RIOAL, were issued on 31 March 2026 and are not intended to be quoted on the A...
Rio Tinto Reports Lapse of 340,623 Conditional Share Rights
Apr 15, 2026
Rio Tinto Limited has notified the market that 340,623 share rights, trading under the ASX code RIOAL, have lapsed after the conditional rights to securities were not met or became incapable of being satisfied as of 31 March 2026. The cessation of...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.