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Rio Tinto Limited (AU:RIO)
:RIO

Rio Tinto Limited (RIO) AI Stock Analysis

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AU

Rio Tinto Limited

(OTC:RIO)

Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
AU$129.00
▲(17.26%Upside)
Rio Tinto Limited's stock is supported by strong financial performance and attractive valuation. Positive earnings call insights further enhance its prospects, despite technical indicators suggesting neutral momentum. The company faces challenges such as cost pressures and declining iron ore prices, which should be watched.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Analyst is buy rated on Rio Tinto due to attractive free cash flow and dividend yield, along with bullish outlook on copper and aluminium.
Growth Projects
Key growth projects are on track, including Oyu Tolgoi and Simandou, with first shipments expected in 2026.
Investment Potential
Rio Tinto Ltd continues to offer a compelling investment case among diversified miners.
Negative Factors
Cost Pressures
Iron ore unit costs are expected to rise above consensus due to sticky wage inflation.
Operating Challenges
Operating challenges at Kennecott have been well-flagged, in our view, and should factor in copper guidance.
Production Shortfalls
Rio Tinto reported slightly lower than expected production in iron ore, aluminium, and copper, which were 2-3% below estimates.

Rio Tinto Limited (RIO) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Rio Tinto Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRio Tinto Limited is a leading global mining group headquartered in London, United Kingdom, and Melbourne, Australia. The company engages in the exploration, mining, and processing of mineral resources worldwide, with a robust portfolio that spans across sectors including iron ore, aluminum, copper, diamonds, energy, and other minerals. Rio Tinto is committed to sustainable development and innovation in the mining industry, and its operations are strategically located in key markets across the globe.
How the Company Makes MoneyRio Tinto Limited generates revenue primarily through the extraction, processing, and sale of various minerals and metals. Iron ore is the largest contributor to the company's revenue, supported by its extensive operations in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. The company also earns significant income from the production and sale of aluminum, driven by its integrated operations from bauxite mining to alumina refining and aluminum smelting. Copper is another essential revenue stream, with operations in the United States and Mongolia. Additionally, Rio Tinto benefits from its diamond mining activities in Canada. The company engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to optimize production efficiency and expand its market reach. Fluctuations in commodity prices, global demand, and operational efficiency are key factors influencing Rio Tinto's earnings.

Rio Tinto Limited Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: -5.99%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong performance in terms of production growth, financial stability, and strategic diversification, particularly in the copper and aluminum segments. However, this was somewhat offset by challenges related to declining iron ore prices, production disruptions due to weather, and ongoing cost pressures.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Consistent Production Growth
Copper equivalent production increased by 1% in 2024, with a mid-range guidance indicating another 4% growth led by the ramp-up of Oyu Tolgoi. A decade of 3% compound annual production growth is projected.
Strong Financial Performance
Operating cash flow increased by 3% with a 67% EBITDA cash conversion rate. The company maintained a 60% payout for the ordinary dividend, equating to $6.5 billion, marking the ninth consecutive year at the top end of the range.
Strategic Diversification
The company is diversifying towards copper, aluminum, and lithium, with the acquisition of Arcadium Lithium enhancing future growth prospects.
Decarbonization Progress
Emissions were reduced by 14% between 2018 and 2024, with significant progress towards the 2030 target of a 50% emissions cut.
Negative Updates
Iron Ore Price Decline
Underlying EBITDA was down 2% to $23.3 billion, largely due to an 11% lower iron ore price.
Challenges with Iron Ore Production
Adverse weather conditions, including tropical cyclones, impacted first-quarter production and shipment volumes in the Pilbara region.
Cost Pressures
Sustained inflationary pressures and cost increases, particularly in the iron ore segment, have led to higher production costs.
Company Guidance
During the call, Jakob Stausholm detailed Rio Tinto's guidance for 2024, highlighting significant growth and operational improvements. The company achieved a 1% increase in copper equivalent production for 2024 and anticipates an additional 4% growth this year, primarily driven by the ramp-up of Oyu Tolgoi. Excluding the acquisition of Arcadium Lithium, this growth is expected to continue organically, contributing to a projected decade-long compound annual production growth rate of 3%. Financially, despite an 11% drop in iron ore prices, the company managed to limit the decrease in underlying EBITDA to just 2%, totaling $23.3 billion, thanks to a strong performance in the aluminum and copper divisions. Operating cash flow increased by 3%, with a 67% EBITDA cash conversion rate. The company maintained a robust balance sheet with $5.5 billion in net debt and declared a 60% payout for the ordinary dividend, equating to $6.5 billion, marking the ninth consecutive year of such returns. This resilience is further backed by a diversified portfolio and disciplined cost management, as evidenced by a 4% reduction in copper unit costs and a 3% reduction in group-wide functional costs year-on-year. Additionally, Rio Tinto is on track with its decarbonization efforts, having cut emissions by 14% between 2018 and 2024, setting the stage for achieving a 50% reduction by 2030.

Rio Tinto Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
54.18B53.66B54.04B55.55B63.49B44.61B
Gross Profit
16.87B30.28B17.30B21.30B31.34B18.70B
EBIT
15.26B15.65B14.82B17.95B29.43B17.23B
EBITDA
19.64B23.16B21.08B22.35B33.60B21.51B
Net Income Common Stockholders
10.75B11.55B10.06B12.42B21.09B9.77B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
13.38B7.20B9.78B8.91B15.29B13.06B
Total Assets
90.95B102.79B103.55B96.74B102.90B97.39B
Total Debt
12.75B13.86B14.35B12.27B13.53B13.83B
Net Debt
1.98B7.03B5.65B5.50B724.00M3.45B
Total Liabilities
41.13B44.82B47.21B44.47B46.31B45.49B
Stockholders Equity
43.69B55.25B54.59B50.17B51.43B47.05B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
7.14B5.98B8.07B9.38B17.96B9.69B
Operating Cash Flow
15.24B15.60B15.16B16.13B25.34B15.88B
Investing Cash Flow
-8.27B-9.59B-6.96B-6.71B-7.16B-6.56B
Financing Cash Flow
-6.90B-7.09B-5.28B-15.47B-15.86B-7.13B

Rio Tinto Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price110.01
Price Trends
50DMA
114.80
Negative
100DMA
115.34
Negative
200DMA
114.45
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.50
Positive
RSI
33.01
Neutral
STOCH
3.69
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:RIO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 110.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 115.95, below the 50-day MA of 114.80, and below the 200-day MA of 114.45, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.69 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:RIO.

Rio Tinto Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
AUFMG
76
Outperform
$46.22B7.8120.21%9.16%-11.33%-32.11%
AURIO
74
Outperform
AU$154.31B10.2021.04%7.83%-0.10%15.50%
AUBHP
72
Outperform
$192.59B11.1526.20%5.08%-2.47%57.01%
AUILU
69
Neutral
$1.57B7.2410.39%2.03%-9.35%-32.77%
AUS32
58
Neutral
£13.58B60.16-3.53%3.57%-19.74%
51
Neutral
$2.02B-1.12-21.36%3.65%2.87%-30.54%
AUMIN
50
Neutral
$3.94B50.78-33.95%4.54%2.22%-411.10%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:RIO
Rio Tinto Limited
110.01
-8.69
-7.32%
AU:ILU
Iluka Resources Limited
3.92
-3.16
-44.60%
AU:BHP
BHP Group Ltd
37.98
-4.43
-10.45%
AU:S32
South32
3.02
-0.74
-19.60%
AU:MIN
Mineral Resources Limited
23.19
-45.44
-66.21%
AU:FMG
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd
15.49
-7.01
-31.16%

Rio Tinto Limited Corporate Events

Rio Tinto Reports Key Management Share Dealings
May 28, 2025

Rio Tinto plc has notified the London Stock Exchange of share dealings by key management personnel in compliance with the EU Market Abuse Regulation. Joc O’Rourke, a person discharging managerial responsibility, acquired 3,000 American Depository Receipts of Rio Tinto plc on the New York Stock Exchange, highlighting the company’s adherence to regulatory requirements and transparency in its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Announces CEO Succession Plan Amid Strategic Growth
May 22, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the upcoming departure of its Chief Executive, Jakob Stausholm, who will step down later this year following a succession process. Under Stausholm’s leadership, the company has realigned its strategy to focus on energy transition opportunities, restored stakeholder trust, and set a path for profitable growth. The company is now in the process of selecting a new leader to continue enhancing operational performance and maximizing asset potential, maintaining its strategic priorities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Allocates Free Shares to Key Management
May 4, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the allocation of Free Shares to key management personnel under the UK Share Plan, a program allowing UK employees to purchase shares and receive matching shares. This move underscores Rio Tinto’s commitment to employee engagement and aligns management interests with shareholder value, potentially enhancing company performance and stakeholder confidence.

Rio Tinto Executives Acquire Shares Through Dividend Reinvestment Plan
May 1, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced that its key management personnel have acquired shares in Rio Tinto plc through the company’s dividend reinvestment plan. This move, reported to both the Australian Securities Exchange and the London Stock Exchange, reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to engage its stakeholders and enhance shareholder value by offering opportunities to reinvest dividends into company shares.

Rio Tinto Maintains Dual-Listed Structure Amid Shareholder Support
May 1, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited held its annual general meetings in London and Perth, where all resolutions were passed except for a proposal to unify its dual-listed company structure. The board had previously reviewed the structure and concluded that unification would lead to substantial tax costs and other financial implications. A significant majority of shareholders supported the board’s recommendation to maintain the current structure, emphasizing the importance of focusing on long-term strategic goals.

Rio Tinto Announces Director Departure
May 1, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited announced the cessation of Sam Laidlaw as a director effective May 1, 2025, as per the Final Director’s Interest Notice submitted to the ASX. This change in the board may influence the company’s strategic direction and governance, impacting stakeholders and potentially affecting its market positioning.

Rio Tinto Shareholders Uphold Current Corporate Structure
May 1, 2025

Rio Tinto’s annual general meetings in London and Perth addressed several resolutions, including a significant proposal to review the company’s dual-listed company (DLC) structure. The board recommended against this Requisitioned Resolution, citing potential financial and operational drawbacks, and the majority of shareholders voted in alignment with the board’s stance. The decision underscores Rio Tinto’s commitment to maintaining its current corporate structure, which is believed to optimize shareholder returns and market access, despite some shareholder support for the review.

Rio Tinto’s Strategic Growth and Operational Milestones in 2025
May 1, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited’s Chief Executive, Jakob Stausholm, highlighted the company’s strategic advancements and operational achievements during the 2025 Annual General Meeting. The acquisition of Arcadium Lithium marks a significant step in expanding their lithium business, aligning with the growing demand for this commodity. The company is also making substantial progress in major projects like the Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea and the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia. Additionally, Rio Tinto is committed to enhancing its ESG performance, stabilizing existing assets, and fostering strong relationships with local communities and suppliers, particularly in Western Australia.

Rio Tinto’s AGM Highlights Safety Commitment and Strong Financial Performance
May 1, 2025

At the 2025 Annual General Meeting, Rio Tinto’s Chair, Dominic Barton, highlighted the company’s commitment to safety following recent tragic incidents. The meeting also marked a transition in board leadership, with several directors stepping down and new appointments being announced. The company reported strong financial performance in 2024, with increased sales volumes and cash flow, and a significant dividend payout. Rio Tinto is on track for production growth, driven by major projects like Oyu Tolgoi and Rincon, and is focused on expanding its lithium business to support sustainable practices.

Vanguard Group Acquires Substantial Stake in Rio Tinto Limited
Apr 29, 2025

The Vanguard Group has become a substantial holder in Rio Tinto Limited, with a 5.001% voting power as of April 24, 2025. This development indicates a significant investment by Vanguard, potentially impacting Rio Tinto’s shareholder dynamics and reflecting confidence in the company’s market position.

Rio Tinto Issues Unquoted Securities Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Apr 28, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited has announced the issuance of 211,832 unquoted securities under an employee incentive scheme, which are subject to transfer restrictions and will not be quoted on the ASX until these restrictions are lifted. This move is part of the company’s strategy to incentivize employees, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and aligning employee interests with company performance, which could have positive implications for stakeholders.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Ceases Substantial Holding in Rio Tinto
Apr 27, 2025

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates have ceased to be substantial holders in Rio Tinto Limited, a major player in the mining industry known for its production of essential minerals and metals. This change in substantial holding, effective as of April 22, 2025, involves various transactions and adjustments in securities holdings by JPMorgan’s subsidiaries, impacting their voting interests in the company.

Rio Tinto Updates on Employee Share Plans and Management Transactions
Apr 27, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced updates regarding its Global Employee Share Plan (myShare) and UK Share Plan (UKSP), which allow employees to purchase company shares and receive matching shares. Recent transactions involved key management personnel acquiring and vesting shares, with some shares sold to cover taxes. These plans are part of Rio Tinto’s strategy to align employee interests with company performance, potentially impacting employee engagement and retention.

Rio Tinto Updates Dividend Reinvestment Details
Apr 23, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited has updated its previous announcement regarding the dividend reinvestment share price and share allocation date. This update pertains to the dividend distribution for the six-month period ending December 31, 2024, with the record date set for March 7, 2025, and the ex-date on March 6, 2025. This announcement provides clarity on the dividend details, which is crucial for stakeholders and investors in planning their financial activities related to Rio Tinto’s shares.

Rio Tinto Reports Strong Q1 2025 Amid Weather Challenges
Apr 15, 2025

Rio Tinto reported strong operational improvements in the first quarter of 2025, with record production levels in its Oyu Tolgoi copper mine and bauxite operations. Despite challenges from extreme weather affecting Pilbara iron ore operations, the company is progressing with major projects, including the Western Range and Simandou iron ore projects, and has successfully launched a new lithium business following the Arcadium acquisition. The company maintains its production and cost guidance for 2025, with mitigation plans in place to address weather-related disruptions.

Rio Tinto Announces 2024 Final Dividend Currency Exchange Rates
Apr 8, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited has announced the currency exchange rates for its 2024 final dividend, which amounts to 225 US cents per share. Shareholders who opted for dividends in British pounds, Australian dollars, or New Zealand dollars will receive their payments based on the conversion rates as of April 8, 2025. The final dividend will be distributed to shareholders and ADR holders on April 17, 2025, reflecting the company’s commitment to returning value to its investors.

Rio Tinto Updates Dividend Distribution Details
Apr 8, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited has updated its previous announcement regarding the notification of dividend distribution, specifically to inform stakeholders of the currency exchange rates and amounts. This update pertains to the dividend distribution for the six-month period ending December 31, 2024, and reflects the company’s commitment to transparency and accurate financial reporting, which is crucial for maintaining investor confidence.

Rio Tinto Issues Unquoted Share Rights Under Employee Scheme
Apr 7, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited has announced the issuance of 304,147 unquoted share rights under an employee incentive scheme, effective March 31, 2025. This move is part of the company’s efforts to incentivize and retain talent, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and stakeholder engagement positively.

Rio Tinto Limited Announces Cessation of Share Rights
Apr 7, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited announced the cessation of 59,517 share rights due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This announcement may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, reflecting on the company’s strategic adjustments in managing its securities.

Rio Tinto Aligns Executive Bonuses with Long-term Performance and Sustainability
Mar 25, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the approval of a partial deferral of the 2024 annual bonus for its Executive Committee members, which will be delivered as Bonus Deferral Awards (BDA) under the company’s Equity Incentive Plan. Additionally, Performance Share Awards (PSA) have been granted, subject to performance conditions related to Total Shareholder Return and decarbonization measures. These initiatives reflect Rio Tinto’s commitment to aligning executive compensation with long-term performance and sustainability goals, potentially impacting the company’s operational focus and stakeholder interests.

Rio Tinto Board Opposes DLC Structure Review Proposal
Mar 19, 2025

Rio Tinto’s Board has advised shareholders to vote against a resolution proposed by Palliser Capital to review the company’s dual-listed companies (DLC) structure. The Board argues that a unification of the DLC into an Australian-domiciled holding company would be detrimental to shareholder value, citing potential tax costs and the wastage of franking credits. The Board has already conducted a comprehensive review with external advisers and concluded that the current structure is beneficial, outperforming market indices since its inception. The resolution’s approval could lead to governance challenges and is deemed unnecessary for strategic flexibility.

Rio Tinto Announces Share Acquisition by Key Management Personnel
Mar 12, 2025

Rio Tinto plc has announced the acquisition of shares by Martina Merz, a person discharging managerial responsibility, through the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. This transaction is part of the company’s compliance with the EU Market Abuse Regulation, highlighting its commitment to transparency and regulatory adherence in its dual-listed company structure.

JPMorgan Acquires Substantial Stake in Rio Tinto
Mar 12, 2025

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates have become substantial holders in Rio Tinto Limited, with a voting power of 5.36% as of March 10, 2025. This development indicates a significant investment and interest from JPMorgan in Rio Tinto, potentially impacting the company’s market position and signaling confidence in its operations and future prospects.

Rio Tinto Secures $9 Billion in Bond Issuance to Bolster Growth
Mar 12, 2025

Rio Tinto Finance (USA) plc has successfully priced US$9.0 billion in fixed and floating rate notes, guaranteed by Rio Tinto plc and Rio Tinto Limited. The proceeds from this bond issuance, which includes eight tranches with varying maturities and interest rates, will be used for general corporate purposes, including repaying debt from a bridge loan used for the acquisition of Arcadium Lithium. This strategic financial move is expected to strengthen Rio Tinto’s liquidity position and support its growth initiatives, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests positively.

Rio Tinto Announces Managerial Share Acquisition
Mar 9, 2025

Rio Tinto plc has announced the acquisition of shares by Ngaire Woods, a person discharging managerial responsibility, in compliance with the EU Market Abuse Regulation. This transaction, reported to both the Australian Securities Exchange and the London Stock Exchange, underscores the company’s commitment to regulatory transparency and governance, potentially impacting stakeholder confidence positively.

Rio Tinto Director Increases Shareholding
Mar 6, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited has announced a change in the interest of its director, Dominic Barton, in the company’s ordinary shares. Mr. Barton acquired an additional 800 shares through an on-market trade, increasing his total holdings to 12,700 shares. This acquisition reflects a continued confidence in the company’s performance and potential growth, which may positively influence stakeholder perception and market positioning.

Rio Tinto Expands Lithium Portfolio with Arcadium Acquisition
Mar 6, 2025

Rio Tinto has completed its $6.7 billion acquisition of Arcadium Lithium, marking a significant expansion into the lithium sector. This acquisition positions Rio Tinto as a global leader in energy transition materials, enhancing its capacity to produce lithium carbonate equivalent and projecting increased EBITDA and cash flow. The integration of Arcadium’s assets is expected to bolster Rio Tinto’s operational capabilities and market presence, aligning with its commitment to sustainable practices and shareholder value.

Rio Tinto Invests $1.8 Billion in Pilbara Iron Ore Expansion
Mar 6, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced a $1.8 billion investment to develop the Brockman Syncline 1 mine project in Western Australia’s Pilbara region, extending the life of the Brockman mining hub. This project, which has received all necessary government approvals and involved consultations with local Traditional Owners, is expected to sustain production from Rio Tinto’s world-class iron ore operations. The development will create approximately 1,000 construction jobs and sustain a workforce of about 600 once operational. The project is part of a series of replacement projects aimed at maintaining Rio Tinto’s commitment to the Pilbara, with first ore production now scheduled for 2027, a year earlier than previously anticipated.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.