Rio Tinto Limited (AU:RIO)
ASX:RIO
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Rio Tinto Limited
(Sydney:RIO)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
AU$189.00
â–²(8.78% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven mainly by solid underlying financial performance and a supportive valuation (mid-teens P/E with a ~3.9% yield). This is tempered by weaker recent cash conversion/free cash flow and current negative/weak technical momentum. The latest earnings call was broadly constructive on productivity and long-term growth, but elevated CapEx, moderated near-term volumes, and the Simandou safety incident add risk.
Positive Factors
Large-scale project pipeline & production growth
Rio Tinto's major asset ramps (Oyu Tolgoi completion and Simandou first shipment) and reported production growth point to durable volume expansion. Large long-life projects provide multi-year supply upside and diversify revenue away from a single mine or commodity, underpinning medium-term earnings capacity.
Negative Factors
Elevated near-term capital intensity
Sustained ~$11bn annual CapEx for multiple years keeps cash absorption high and delays the period when free cash flow materially rebuilds. High reinvestment needs constrain discretionary capital, increase exposure to execution risk, and can limit the company's ability to allocate cash to dividends or buybacks if commodity conditions weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large-scale project pipeline & production growth
Rio Tinto's major asset ramps (Oyu Tolgoi completion and Simandou first shipment) and reported production growth point to durable volume expansion. Large long-life projects provide multi-year supply upside and diversify revenue away from a single mine or commodity, underpinning medium-term earnings capacity.
Read all positive factors
Rio Tinto Limited (RIO) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$236.92B
Dividend Yield3.93%
Average Volume (3M)1.28M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.4
Beta (1Y)0.76
Revenue Growth0.38%
EPS Growth-3.57%
CountryAU
Employees60,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.21
Shares Outstanding371,821,230
10 Day Avg. Volume1,400,844
30 Day Avg. Volume1,281,895
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.43
Price to Book (P/B)2.56
Price to Sales (P/S)2.67
P/FCF Ratio31.96
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$161.77Price Target Upside-6.90% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)8.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$62.52B
Rio Tinto Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Rio Tinto Group engages in exploring, mining, and processing mineral resources worldwide. The company offers aluminum, copper, diamonds, gold, borates, titanium dioxide, salt, iron ore, and lithium. It also owns and operates open pit and undergrou...
How the Company Makes Money
Rio Tinto primarily makes money by producing and selling mined commodities to industrial customers under a mix of spot-linked and contract pricing, with revenue largely determined by shipment volumes and prevailing market prices. Its largest reven...
Rio Tinto Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong operational delivery and portfolio diversification-driven financial outperformance in 2025: production growth (8% copper equivalent), EBITDA growth (+9% to $25.4bn), major project milestones (OT underground complete; Simandou first shipment), disciplined capital allocation and robust shareholder returns (60% payout, $6.5bn). Management also identified and began delivering on $650m of productivity gains and expects materially higher cash improvements in 2026. Key challenges include a fatality at Simandou (stopped works and safety remediation), weaker iron ore earnings (EBITDA down 11%), elevated near‑term CapEx (~$11bn) and a modest rise in net debt to $14.4bn. Volume growth is expected to moderate to ~3% in 2026 with several asset curtailments and grade headwinds noted. On balance, the operational and financial positives and clear plans to drive further productivity and capital discipline outweigh the material but addressable lowlights.Positive Updates
Production Growth and Records
Copper equivalent production grew 8% in 2025 with annual records set for both copper and bauxite; Oyu Tolgoi shipments up 60% and underground development at OT completed, positioning ~500,000 tpa copper average between 2028–2036.
Negative Updates
Fatality and Safety Incident at Simandou
A colleague died at the Simandou site; all site works and construction activities were stopped, an independent internal/external investigation initiated and an independent safety advisory panel to be appointed — a material operational and reputational issue that may affect construction timelines and requires significant remediation.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Growth and Records
Copper equivalent production grew 8% in 2025 with annual records set for both copper and bauxite; Oyu Tolgoi shipments up 60% and underground development at OT completed, positioning ~500,000 tpa copper average between 2028–2036.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guidance centered on delivering the $650m annualized productivity run‑rate by end‑Q1 2026 and generating cash improvements in 2026 materially above that Q1 run‑rate, while targeting aggregate volume and cost gains (net of headwinds) that materially exceed the initial $650m; volume growth for 2026 is expected to be about 3% across managed operations (offset by closures at Arvida, Diavik, a mid‑year Yarwun curtailment and an expected grade decline at Escondida). They reiterated a 3% CAGR target for copper‑equivalent production to 2030, Oyu Tolgoi on track to average ~500,000 tpa copper (2028–2036), Simandou to ramp to 60 Mtpa iron ore, lithium in‑flight projects targeting ~200,000 tpa by 2028, and 85% of exploration spend to be directed to copper; Pilbara unit cost guidance is $23.50–$25/t (2025 at $23.50/t), copper unit costs expected to be comparable to 2025 after a 53% reduction in 2025, group CapEx guidance remains up to $11bn per year for the next two years before stepping down to ~$10bn, the company intends to pursue $5–$10bn of asset disposals, maintain its 40–60% dividend payout policy (60% paid again, $6.5bn), and preserve a single‑A credit posture with net debt around $14.4bn (gearing ~18%).Rio Tinto Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
73
Positive
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 59.65B | 53.66B | 54.04B | 55.55B | 63.49B |
| Gross Profit | 15.81B | 30.28B | 17.30B | 21.30B | 31.34B |
| EBITDA | 22.62B | 23.16B | 21.08B | 22.71B | 33.93B |
| Net Income | 10.31B | 11.55B | 10.06B | 12.42B | 21.09B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 128.19B | 102.79B | 103.55B | 96.74B | 102.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.45B | 7.20B | 9.78B | 8.91B | 15.29B |
| Total Debt | 24.60B | 13.86B | 14.35B | 12.27B | 13.53B |
| Total Liabilities | 61.12B | 44.82B | 47.21B | 44.47B | 46.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 62.24B | 55.25B | 54.59B | 50.63B | 51.43B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.98B | 5.98B | 8.07B | 9.38B | 17.96B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 17.74B | 15.60B | 15.16B | 16.13B | 25.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -18.32B | -9.59B | -6.96B | -6.71B | -7.16B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 876.54M | -7.09B | -5.28B | -15.47B | -15.86B |
Rio Tinto Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
173.75
Price Trends
159.65
Positive
149.44
Positive
132.33
Positive
Market Momentum
5.14
Negative
64.07
Neutral
81.88
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:RIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 173.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 162.24, above the 50-day MA of 159.65, and above the 200-day MA of 132.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.88 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:RIO.
Rio Tinto Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | AU$63.92B | 5.80 | 18.83% | 4.96% | -13.65% | -39.85% | |
74 Outperform | AU$285.08B | 6.71 | 21.41% | 3.75% | -6.74% | 15.92% | |
68 Neutral | AU$236.92B | 15.43 | 16.59% | 3.93% | 0.38% | -3.57% | |
63 Neutral | AU$20.72B | 5.91 | 3.36% | 2.67% | 6.53% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
54 Neutral | AU$11.44B | 5.40 | 11.50% | ― | -15.27% | -817.26% | |
45 Neutral | AU$6.33B | -45.43 | -9.95% | ― | -37.23% | -32433.33% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:RIO
Rio Tinto Limited
173.75
68.96
65.81%
AU:S32
South32
4.53
1.95
75.38%
AU:BHP
BHP Group Ltd
55.92
20.90
59.68%
AU:FMG
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd
21.23
7.04
49.59%
AU:IGO
IGO
9.25
5.67
158.38%
AU:MIN
Mineral Resources Limited
63.54
46.54
273.76%
Rio Tinto Limited Corporate Events
Rio Tinto Issues New Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Apr 15, 2026
Rio Tinto Limited has issued 156,231 new ordinary fully paid shares following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted options or other convertible securities. The new shares were issued on 31 March 2026 and are being notified to the mark...
Rio Tinto Issues Over 547,000 Unquoted Share Rights Under Staff Incentive Plan
Apr 15, 2026
Rio Tinto Limited has notified the market of the issue of 547,933 unquoted share rights under its employee incentive scheme. The securities, recorded under the ASX code RIOAL, were issued on 31 March 2026 and are not intended to be quoted on the A...
Rio Tinto Reports Lapse of 340,623 Conditional Share Rights
Apr 15, 2026
Rio Tinto Limited has notified the market that 340,623 share rights, trading under the ASX code RIOAL, have lapsed after the conditional rights to securities were not met or became incapable of being satisfied as of 31 March 2026. The cessation of...
Rio Tinto Sets FX Rates for 2025 Final Dividend Ahead of 16 April Payout
Apr 7, 2026
Rio Tinto has confirmed the currency exchange rates for its previously announced 2025 final dividend of 254.00 US cents per share, allowing shareholders in the U.K., Australia and New Zealand to receive payments in their local currencies. Based on...
Rio Tinto Confirms Exchange Rates and Details for Fully Franked 2025 Final Dividend
Apr 7, 2026
Rio Tinto has updated its earlier dividend notification for holders of its ordinary fully paid shares, confirming currency exchange rates and payment amounts for the 2025 final dividend. The distribution, relating to the six-month period ended 31 ...
Rio Tinto Issues Over 1 Million Unquoted Share Rights Under Incentive Scheme
Mar 26, 2026
Rio Tinto Limited has notified the market of the issue of 1,013,508 unquoted share rights under an employee incentive scheme, dated 19 March 2026. The securities, identified under the code RIOAL, are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, indicatin...
Rio Tinto clinches A$2bn government-backed deal to secure Boyne aluminium smelter to 2040
Mar 24, 2026
Rio Tinto has secured a landmark partnership with the Queensland and Commonwealth governments to extend the life of the Boyne aluminium smelter in Gladstone to at least 2040, beyond the expiry of its current power contract in 2029. The deal is des...
Rio Tinto sets dual-location 2026 AGM as board refresh and remuneration votes take focus
Mar 20, 2026
Rio Tinto Limited has called its 2026 annual general meeting for 4:00pm AWST on 6 May 2026 in Perth, to be held in parallel and linked by audio-visual technology with the Rio Tinto plc AGM in London so shareholders of both entities can participate...
Rio Tinto Sets Parallel 2026 AGMs and Alternating Board Attendance Plan
Mar 20, 2026
Rio Tinto has released the notices for its 2026 annual general meetings for both Rio Tinto plc and Rio Tinto Limited, which will be held in parallel on 6 May 2026, in London at 9:00am BST and in Perth at 4:00pm AWST. The board will attend the Pert...
Rio Tinto Issues 408,500 New Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Feb 26, 2026
Rio Tinto Limited has issued 408,500 new ordinary fully paid shares following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted equity securities. The new shares, dated 20 February 2026, reflect the transfer of unquoted options or other convertibl...
Rio Tinto Discloses Executive Share Award Vesting for Iron Ore Chief
Feb 24, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed a routine management share award transaction involving Chief Executive, Iron Ore, Matt Holcz, under its 2018 Equity Incentive Plan, as required by its dual listing on the ASX and LSE. Holcz received 4,115 Rio Tinto Limited ...
Rio Tinto Director Ben Wyatt Increases Personal Shareholding
Feb 23, 2026
Rio Tinto Limited has disclosed a change in the shareholding of director Ben Wyatt, who acquired 100 additional ordinary shares in the company via an on‑market trade on 23 February 2026. The purchase, at a price of $160.6243 per share, incre...
Rio Tinto Concert Party Discloses Shareholdings and Awarded Equity in Takeover Filing
Jan 29, 2026
A disclosure filing under the UK Takeover Code shows that Peter Cunningham, a person acting in concert with Rio Tinto plc and Rio Tinto Limited in relation to an offer, holds an interest in 79,216.912673 Rio Tinto plc 10p ordinary shares, includin...
Rio Tinto Files Amended Opening Position Disclosure Under Takeover Code
Jan 29, 2026
Rio Tinto has filed an amended public opening position disclosure under UK takeover rules, confirming that as offeror it currently holds no relevant securities, derivatives or short positions in Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited beyond ordinary s...
Rio Tinto Reports Routine Executive Share Acquisitions Under Employee Plans
Jan 22, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed routine dealings in its securities by persons discharging managerial responsibility and key management personnel under its Global Employee Share Plan (myShare) and the UK Share Plan. On 19 January 2026, senior executives in...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.