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Rio Tinto Limited
(OTC:RIO)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
AU$174.00
â–²(8.76% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/29/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial strength (profitability and generally healthy balance sheet) but tempered by recent free-cash-flow weakening and cyclical margin/revenue volatility. Technicals are a meaningful drag with the stock trading below key short- and medium-term moving averages, while valuation and dividend yield are supportive. The latest earnings call adds a positive tilt via strong EBITDA/FCF growth and productivity/project execution, partially offset by operational and regulatory risks.
Positive Factors
Productivity Gains & Cost-Out
Material, banked productivity ($870m) and a clearly communicated target ($1.8bn run‑rate) indicate structural unit‑cost improvement. Sustained cost-out of this scale supports margin resilience across cycles, funds reinvestment and shareholder returns, and improves cash flow conversion over multiple years.
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Weakness
A multi‑year decline in free cash flow and lower FCF-to‑net‑income (circa 28%–38% recently) reduces the company’s internal funding capacity. Persistently weaker cash conversion pressures the ability to self‑fund growth, sustain dividends and absorb price downturns without higher leverage or asset sales.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Productivity Gains & Cost-Out
Material, banked productivity ($870m) and a clearly communicated target ($1.8bn run‑rate) indicate structural unit‑cost improvement. Sustained cost-out of this scale supports margin resilience across cycles, funds reinvestment and shareholder returns, and improves cash flow conversion over multiple years.
Read all positive factors
Rio Tinto Limited (RIO) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$231.50B
Dividend Yield3.13%
Average Volume (3M)1.34M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.9
Beta (1Y)0.89
Revenue Growth9.79%
EPS Growth12.27%
CountryAU
Employees56,890
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.45
Shares Outstanding371,821,230
10 Day Avg. Volume1,125,166
30 Day Avg. Volume1,341,287
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.43
Price to Book (P/B)2.56
Price to Sales (P/S)2.67
P/FCF Ratio31.96
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$174.29Price Target Upside8.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)8.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$63.51B
Rio Tinto Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Globally, Rio Tinto Group's primary activities encompass the discovery, extraction, and refinement of various mineral deposits. Its comprehensive product portfolio features essential commodities like aluminum, copper, diamonds, gold, borates, tita...
How the Company Makes Money
Rio Tinto primarily makes money by extracting, processing, and selling mined commodities to industrial customers worldwide under a mix of spot-linked and contract pricing, with revenue largely driven by sales volumes and prevailing commodity price...
Rio Tinto Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong, broad-based operational and financial momentum — notably robust EBITDA growth (+28%), a 75% lift in free cash flow, significant productivity gains already banked ($870m) and an interim dividend uplift (+43%). Major projects (Simandou, OT) are progressing and management is targeting material run-rate cost benefits ($1.8bn) and longer-term copper and lithium growth targets. Headwinds and risks include safety incidents (two fatalities), a furnace breach shifting sales into 2027, asset-level performance variability (IOC, Kennecott), external cost and FX pressures (~$1.5bn impact) and a Mongolia tax arbitration (~$900m exposure). Overall, the positive operational and financial developments and clear execution on productivity and project milestones outweigh the lowlights and near-term disruptions.Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance - EBITDA and Free Cash Flow
Underlying EBITDA increased 28% to $14.8 billion; free cash flow rose 75%, driving improved liquidity and flexibility.
Negative Updates
Workplace Fatalities and Safety Impact
The company reported losing two colleagues in the half; management emphasized safety as first priority and noted the human and operational impact.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Financial Performance - EBITDA and Free Cash Flow
Underlying EBITDA increased 28% to $14.8 billion; free cash flow rose 75%, driving improved liquidity and flexibility.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call set out concrete, metric‑heavy guidance: productivity banked $870m to 30 June (vs $650m initial target) and a year‑end run‑rate target of $1.8bn, underlying EBITDA up 28% to $14.8bn, free cash flow +75% (copper FCF more than tripled), and underlying drivers of $3.6bn price benefit ($2.0bn copper, $1.3bn aluminium) partly offset by $1.5bn of external headwinds with $1.2bn from controllables; copper equivalent production rose 3% in H1 and the group targets 1.0Mt Cu by 2030 (OT ~500ktpa ramp, Kennecott +40–50% guidance), lithium capacity target 200kt by 2028, Simandou >¾ complete and on track for end‑2027, CapEx unchanged at up to $11bn in 2026–27 then ~ $10bn pa from 2028 (real ’25 terms) with sustaining capex ~ $4bn pa (broader sustaining/replacement/decarbonisation ~$7–8bn pa) and ~ $1bn pa growth spend on lithium/Simandou; balance sheet reduced net debt while funding ~$5bn CapEx and paying a $4.2bn final dividend, a cash‑release program targeting up to $5bn in 2026 (>$10bn pipeline) and aiming to announce ~$5bn this year, dividend payout 50% at interims (interim dividend $3.4bn, +43%), and medium‑term targets of ~3% CAGR copper‑equivalent production to 2030, ~4% CAGR unit‑cost reduction and an average portfolio IRR of ~26%.Rio Tinto Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
73
Positive
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 61.91B | 59.65B | 53.66B | 54.04B | 55.55B | 63.49B |
| Gross Profit | 16.91B | 16.14B | 30.28B | 17.30B | 21.30B | 31.34B |
| EBITDA | 24.21B | 21.80B | 23.16B | 21.08B | 22.71B | 33.93B |
| Net Income | 12.11B | 10.31B | 11.55B | 10.06B | 12.42B | 21.09B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 133.44B | 128.19B | 102.79B | 103.55B | 96.74B | 102.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.50B | 9.45B | 7.20B | 9.78B | 8.91B | 15.29B |
| Total Debt | 22.84B | 23.52B | 13.86B | 14.35B | 12.27B | 13.53B |
| Total Liabilities | 61.77B | 61.12B | 44.82B | 47.21B | 44.47B | 46.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 65.43B | 62.24B | 55.25B | 54.59B | 50.63B | 51.43B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.73B | 4.98B | 5.98B | 8.07B | 9.38B | 17.96B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 19.17B | 17.74B | 15.60B | 15.16B | 16.13B | 25.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.35B | -18.32B | -9.59B | -6.96B | -6.71B | -7.16B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.90B | 876.54M | -7.09B | -5.28B | -15.47B | -15.86B |
Rio Tinto Limited Technical Analysis
Negative
159.99
Price Trends
167.89
Negative
169.64
Negative
155.30
Positive
Market Momentum
2.27
Negative
49.79
Neutral
34.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:RIO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 159.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 165.39, below the 50-day MA of 167.89, and above the 200-day MA of 155.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:RIO.
Rio Tinto Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | AU$54.28B | 10.08 | 18.83% | 6.58% | 2.22% | -2.10% | |
74 Outperform | AU$311.70B | 21.31 | 21.41% | 3.26% | 2.98% | -8.26% | |
68 Neutral | AU$231.50B | 12.85 | 16.59% | 3.56% | 9.79% | 12.27% | |
63 Neutral | AU$21.30B | 50.12 | 3.36% | 2.67% | 2.25% | 97.21% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
55 Neutral | AU$13.00B | 32.35 | 11.50% | ― | 3.58% | ― | |
49 Neutral | AU$5.96B | -28.68 | -9.95% | ― | -36.60% | 80.62% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:RIO
Rio Tinto Limited
167.59
59.46
54.98%
AU:S32
South32
4.76
1.95
69.21%
AU:BHP
BHP Group Ltd
61.35
21.54
54.11%
AU:FMG
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd
17.64
-0.91
-4.89%
AU:IGO
IGO
7.89
2.44
44.77%
AU:MIN
Mineral Resources Limited
65.99
28.87
77.77%
Rio Tinto Limited Corporate Events
Rio Tinto lifts earnings and dividend on productivity gains and growth projects
Jul 28, 2026
Rio Tinto reported a sharp improvement in first-half performance, with copper equivalent production up 3%, underlying EBITDA rising 28% to $14.8 billion and free cash flow jumping 75% to $3.8 billion, supported by favourable commodity prices and s...
Rio Tinto Reaffirms Oyu Tolgoi Copper Targets in 2026 Half-Year Update
Jul 28, 2026
Rio Tinto has released its 2026 half-year results presentation for the Oyu Tolgoi copper operation in Mongolia, outlining its use of non‑IFRS financial measures and providing detailed cautionary language on forward‑looking statements. ...
Rio Tinto declares fully franked 2026 interim dividend of USD 2.11 per share
Jul 28, 2026
Rio Tinto Limited has declared a fully franked 2026 interim dividend of USD 2.11 per ordinary share, relating to the six‑month period ended 30 June 2026. The dividend carries full franking credits at the Australian corporate tax rate of 30 p...
Rio Tinto Reports Executive Dealings Under Global and UK Employee Share Plans
Jul 22, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed recent dealings in its securities by persons discharging managerial responsibility and key management personnel under its Global Employee Share Plan and UK Share Plan. The notice details the vesting, sale to cover taxes, an...
Rio Tinto lifts output and trims copper costs as Simandou and lithium ramp up
Jul 14, 2026
Rio Tinto reported a 3% year-on-year increase in copper equivalent production in the first half of 2026, highlighting strong operational performance despite geopolitical uncertainty. The company cited its scale, diversified footprint and sophistic...
Rio Tinto Issues New Shares Following Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Jul 14, 2026
Rio Tinto Limited has notified the market of the issue and transfer of 193,595 ordinary fully paid shares on June 30, 2026, following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted equity securities. The new share issuance reflects routine capi...
Rio Tinto reports lapse of 194,230 conditional share rights
Jul 14, 2026
Rio Tinto Limited has notified the ASX of the cessation of 194,230 share rights, recorded under security code RIOAL. The rights lapsed on 30 June 2026 because the conditional requirements attached to these securities were not met or became incapab...
JPMorgan Drops Below Substantial Holding Threshold in Rio Tinto
Jul 13, 2026
JPMorgan Chase Co. and its affiliates have notified Rio Tinto Limited that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in the miner as of 9 July 2026, following a series of transactions involving securities lending, investment management activiti...
Rio Tinto Director Ben Wyatt Increases Shareholding via On-Market Purchase
Jun 9, 2026
Rio Tinto Limited disclosed a change in director Ben Wyatt’s shareholding, with an on-market purchase of 300 ordinary shares on 9 June 2026. The transaction increased his direct holding from 1,000 to 1,300 Rio Tinto Limited shares, at a pric...
Rio Tinto CEO Addresses Bank of America Metals and Mining Conference
May 12, 2026
Rio Tinto said chief executive Simon Trott is presenting at the Bank of America Global Metals, Mining Steel Conference in Miami, underscoring the miner’s engagement with global capital markets and industry stakeholders. The company has made...
Rio Tinto Discloses PDMR Share Acquisition via Dividend Reinvestment Plan
May 12, 2026
Rio Tinto has reported to both the ASX and LSE that a person discharging managerial responsibility, Jennifer Nason, acquired additional Rio Tinto plc American Depositary Receipts through the company’s dividend reinvestment plan. The notifica...
Rio Tinto CEO Sets Growth Ambition on Safety, Productivity and Copper-Led Expansion
May 6, 2026
Rio Tinto’s chief executive used the 2026 AGM address to stress renewed focus on safety after three fatalities, committing leadership to strengthening critical controls and embedding a culture where protecting workers is paramount. He framed...
Rio Tinto Chair Sets Strategic Tone at 2026 Dual-Listed AGM
May 6, 2026
Rio Tinto’s chair Dominic Barton opened the 2026 dual-listed annual general meetings in Perth and London, highlighting a new contemporaneous format that enables broader shareholder participation and regular rotation of directors’ physi...
Rio Tinto Grants UK Share Plan Awards to Senior Executives
May 5, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed share dealings by persons discharging managerial responsibility and key management personnel under its HMRC-approved UK Share Plan, as required by its dual listing in London and Australia. Under the plan, qualifying UK empl...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.