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Rio Tinto Limited (AU:RIO)
ASX:RIO
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Rio Tinto Limited (RIO) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:RIO

Rio Tinto Limited

(Sydney:RIO)

Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
AU$129.00
▲(8.53%Upside)
Rio Tinto Limited's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance, favorable valuation, and positive earnings call outcomes, despite technical indicators suggesting caution due to potential overbought conditions. The company's strategic diversification and operational efficiency contribute significantly to its robust position in the industrial materials sector.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Analyst is buy rated on Rio Tinto due to attractive free cash flow and dividend yield, along with bullish outlook on copper and aluminium.
Growth Projects
Key growth projects are on track, including Oyu Tolgoi and Simandou, with first shipments expected in 2026.
Investment Potential
Rio Tinto Ltd continues to offer a compelling investment case among diversified miners.
Negative Factors
Cost Pressures
Iron ore unit costs are expected to rise above consensus due to sticky wage inflation.
Operating Challenges
Operating challenges at Kennecott have been well-flagged, in our view, and should factor in copper guidance.
Production Shortfalls
Rio Tinto reported slightly lower than expected production in iron ore, aluminium, and copper, which were 2-3% below estimates.

Rio Tinto Limited (RIO) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Rio Tinto Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRio Tinto Limited (RIO) is a leading global mining group, committed to the exploration, mining, and processing of the Earth's mineral resources. The company operates across several sectors, including aluminum, copper, diamonds, energy, and iron ore. With a rich heritage dating back to 1873, Rio Tinto is renowned for its diverse portfolio of high-quality assets, innovative technologies, and sustainable mining practices, playing a crucial role in the supply chain of essential materials for industries worldwide.
How the Company Makes MoneyRio Tinto Limited generates revenue primarily through the extraction, production, and sale of a variety of mineral and metal products. The company's key revenue streams include iron ore, which is used extensively in steelmaking, and accounts for the largest portion of its earnings. Additionally, Rio Tinto produces significant amounts of aluminum, copper, and diamonds. The company benefits from long-term contracts and strategic partnerships with global industrial players, ensuring a stable demand for its products. Moreover, Rio Tinto's investment in technology and sustainable practices enhances its operational efficiency and competitiveness, further contributing to its financial performance.

Rio Tinto Limited Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 1.57%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong performance in terms of production growth, financial stability, and strategic diversification, particularly in the copper and aluminum segments. However, this was somewhat offset by challenges related to declining iron ore prices, production disruptions due to weather, and ongoing cost pressures.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Consistent Production Growth
Copper equivalent production increased by 1% in 2024, with a mid-range guidance indicating another 4% growth led by the ramp-up of Oyu Tolgoi. A decade of 3% compound annual production growth is projected.
Strong Financial Performance
Operating cash flow increased by 3% with a 67% EBITDA cash conversion rate. The company maintained a 60% payout for the ordinary dividend, equating to $6.5 billion, marking the ninth consecutive year at the top end of the range.
Strategic Diversification
The company is diversifying towards copper, aluminum, and lithium, with the acquisition of Arcadium Lithium enhancing future growth prospects.
Decarbonization Progress
Emissions were reduced by 14% between 2018 and 2024, with significant progress towards the 2030 target of a 50% emissions cut.
Negative Updates
Iron Ore Price Decline
Underlying EBITDA was down 2% to $23.3 billion, largely due to an 11% lower iron ore price.
Challenges with Iron Ore Production
Adverse weather conditions, including tropical cyclones, impacted first-quarter production and shipment volumes in the Pilbara region.
Cost Pressures
Sustained inflationary pressures and cost increases, particularly in the iron ore segment, have led to higher production costs.
Company Guidance
During the call, Jakob Stausholm detailed Rio Tinto's guidance for 2024, highlighting significant growth and operational improvements. The company achieved a 1% increase in copper equivalent production for 2024 and anticipates an additional 4% growth this year, primarily driven by the ramp-up of Oyu Tolgoi. Excluding the acquisition of Arcadium Lithium, this growth is expected to continue organically, contributing to a projected decade-long compound annual production growth rate of 3%. Financially, despite an 11% drop in iron ore prices, the company managed to limit the decrease in underlying EBITDA to just 2%, totaling $23.3 billion, thanks to a strong performance in the aluminum and copper divisions. Operating cash flow increased by 3%, with a 67% EBITDA cash conversion rate. The company maintained a robust balance sheet with $5.5 billion in net debt and declared a 60% payout for the ordinary dividend, equating to $6.5 billion, marking the ninth consecutive year of such returns. This resilience is further backed by a diversified portfolio and disciplined cost management, as evidenced by a 4% reduction in copper unit costs and a 3% reduction in group-wide functional costs year-on-year. Additionally, Rio Tinto is on track with its decarbonization efforts, having cut emissions by 14% between 2018 and 2024, setting the stage for achieving a 50% reduction by 2030.

Rio Tinto Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Rio Tinto Limited shows strong operational efficiency with solid margins and a stable balance sheet characterized by low leverage. However, slight revenue declines and reduced free cash flow present areas of concern that need addressing for sustained competitive advantage.
Income Statement
80
Positive
Rio Tinto Limited has demonstrated solid financial performance. The gross profit margin stands at 56.4%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is at 21.5%, slightly lower than previous years, suggesting increased expenses or lower revenue efficiency. The company experienced a slight revenue decline of 0.71% compared to the previous year, which could be a concern if this trend continues. Nonetheless, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 29.2% and 43.2%, respectively, reflecting good operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet of Rio Tinto Limited is robust, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.25, indicating a conservative approach to leverage. The equity ratio is healthy at 53.8%, which suggests financial stability and a strong capital base. Return on equity is 20.9%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. Despite these strengths, the total equity has shown minimal growth, which may limit future financial flexibility.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
The cash flow situation is stable, with a free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.52, indicating adequate cash generation relative to profits. However, the free cash flow has decreased by 25.9% compared to the previous year, which could impact future investment capacity if not improved. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 1.35, reflecting strong cash earnings capacity.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue53.66B54.04B55.55B63.49B44.61B
Gross Profit30.28B17.30B21.30B31.34B18.70B
EBITDA23.16B21.08B22.35B33.60B21.51B
Net Income11.55B10.06B12.42B21.09B9.77B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets102.79B103.55B96.74B102.90B97.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments7.20B9.78B8.91B15.29B13.06B
Total Debt13.86B14.35B12.27B13.53B13.83B
Total Liabilities44.82B47.21B44.47B46.31B45.49B
Stockholders Equity55.25B54.59B50.17B51.43B47.05B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow5.98B8.07B9.38B17.96B9.69B
Operating Cash Flow15.60B15.16B16.13B25.34B15.88B
Investing Cash Flow-9.59B-6.96B-6.71B-7.16B-6.56B
Financing Cash Flow-7.09B-5.28B-15.47B-15.86B-7.13B

Rio Tinto Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price118.86
Price Trends
50DMA
111.02
Positive
100DMA
113.23
Positive
200DMA
114.17
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.55
Negative
RSI
69.64
Neutral
STOCH
80.40
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:RIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 118.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 111.62, above the 50-day MA of 111.02, and above the 200-day MA of 114.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.55 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.40 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:RIO.

Rio Tinto Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$164.18B11.0221.04%0.05%-0.10%15.50%
75
Outperform
$56.47B9.5420.21%0.45%-11.33%-32.11%
74
Outperform
$211.11B12.2126.20%0.12%-2.47%57.01%
63
Neutral
$10.55B10.831.51%2.68%2.24%-33.79%
62
Neutral
$4.06B1,418.92-36.53%6.90%-28.50%-532.61%
58
Neutral
$6.26B50.78-33.95%4.54%2.22%-411.10%
54
Neutral
£14.01B62.15-3.53%0.90%-19.74%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:RIO
Rio Tinto Limited
118.86
9.10
8.29%
AU:BHP
BHP Group Ltd
40.80
0.73
1.83%
AU:S32
South32
3.05
0.12
4.06%
AU:MIN
Mineral Resources Limited
32.32
-21.68
-40.15%
AU:FMG
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd
18.35
-0.44
-2.34%
AU:IGO
IGO
5.36
>-0.01
-0.15%

Rio Tinto Limited Corporate Events

Rio Tinto Issues New Share Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Jul 24, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited has announced the issuance of 219,222 share rights under an employee incentive scheme, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX. This move is part of the company’s strategy to incentivize employees and align their interests with the company’s long-term goals, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Updates on Employee Share Plans
Jul 22, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited has announced updates regarding its Global Employee Share Plan (myShare) and UK Share Plan (UKSP), which allow employees to purchase company shares with matching shares awarded based on specific conditions. On 18 July 2025, several key management personnel received vested matching shares under myShare, some of which were sold to cover taxes and deductions. Additionally, on 17 July 2025, key personnel acquired shares under both myShare and UKSP, reflecting the company’s commitment to employee investment and engagement. These plans are part of Rio Tinto’s strategy to align employee interests with company performance, potentially enhancing stakeholder value and employee retention.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Vanguard Group Acquires Substantial Stake in Rio Tinto Limited
Jul 20, 2025

The Vanguard Group has become a substantial holder in Rio Tinto Limited, with a 5.001% voting power as of July 15, 2025. This development signifies a significant investment by Vanguard, potentially impacting Rio Tinto’s shareholder dynamics and reflecting confidence in the company’s market position and future prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Reports Strong Q2 2025 Production Results with Strategic Growth Initiatives
Jul 15, 2025

Rio Tinto has reported a 13% year-on-year increase in copper equivalent production for the second quarter of 2025, driven by strong performance in its copper business and contributions from the Arcadium acquisition. The company achieved record production levels in its bauxite operations and significant progress in its Pilbara iron ore and Simandou projects. Rio Tinto’s strategic focus on growth and diversification is evident in its efforts to ramp up the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine and establish a world-class lithium business. The company’s operational success is expected to positively impact its market positioning and stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Appoints Simon Trott as New Chief Executive
Jul 15, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the appointment of Simon Trott as the new Chief Executive, effective August 25, 2025, succeeding Jakob Stausholm. Trott, who has been instrumental in enhancing the Iron Ore division’s performance and stakeholder relationships, is expected to lead the company into its next phase of growth, focusing on operational performance and value creation for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Issues New Employee Share Rights
Jul 11, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited has announced the issuance of 2,054 share rights under an employee incentive scheme, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX. This move reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to incentivize its workforce, potentially impacting employee engagement and retention positively, while aligning their interests with the company’s long-term goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Announces Director’s Share Acquisition
Jun 26, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest notice involving Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz. The notice details her indirect acquisition of 384 ordinary shares in the company through an on-market trade, increasing her total holdings to 2,458 shares. This development reflects ongoing changes in the company’s leadership shareholdings, which may influence stakeholder perceptions and the company’s governance dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto and Hancock Prospecting Invest $1.6 Billion in Hope Downs 2 Project
Jun 24, 2025

Rio Tinto and Hancock Prospecting have announced a $1.6 billion investment to develop the Hope Downs 2 iron ore project in Western Australia’s Pilbara region, with Rio Tinto contributing $0.8 billion. The project, which has received all necessary government approvals, will include two new iron ore pits with a combined annual production capacity of 31 million tonnes. This development is part of Rio Tinto’s strategy to sustain Pilbara production, supporting local jobs and economies. The project will create over 950 construction jobs and sustain around 1000 full-time roles once operational, with first ore expected in 2027. Rio Tinto is also engaging with local Indigenous groups and government stakeholders to manage heritage and environmental concerns responsibly.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Reports Key Management Share Dealings
May 28, 2025

Rio Tinto plc has notified the London Stock Exchange of share dealings by key management personnel in compliance with the EU Market Abuse Regulation. Joc O’Rourke, a person discharging managerial responsibility, acquired 3,000 American Depository Receipts of Rio Tinto plc on the New York Stock Exchange, highlighting the company’s adherence to regulatory requirements and transparency in its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Announces CEO Succession Plan Amid Strategic Growth
May 22, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the upcoming departure of its Chief Executive, Jakob Stausholm, who will step down later this year following a succession process. Under Stausholm’s leadership, the company has realigned its strategy to focus on energy transition opportunities, restored stakeholder trust, and set a path for profitable growth. The company is now in the process of selecting a new leader to continue enhancing operational performance and maximizing asset potential, maintaining its strategic priorities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RIO) stock is a Buy with a A$120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rio Tinto Limited stock, see the AU:RIO Stock Forecast page.

Rio Tinto Allocates Free Shares to Key Management
May 4, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced the allocation of Free Shares to key management personnel under the UK Share Plan, a program allowing UK employees to purchase shares and receive matching shares. This move underscores Rio Tinto’s commitment to employee engagement and aligns management interests with shareholder value, potentially enhancing company performance and stakeholder confidence.

Rio Tinto Executives Acquire Shares Through Dividend Reinvestment Plan
May 1, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced that its key management personnel have acquired shares in Rio Tinto plc through the company’s dividend reinvestment plan. This move, reported to both the Australian Securities Exchange and the London Stock Exchange, reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to engage its stakeholders and enhance shareholder value by offering opportunities to reinvest dividends into company shares.

Rio Tinto Maintains Dual-Listed Structure Amid Shareholder Support
May 1, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited held its annual general meetings in London and Perth, where all resolutions were passed except for a proposal to unify its dual-listed company structure. The board had previously reviewed the structure and concluded that unification would lead to substantial tax costs and other financial implications. A significant majority of shareholders supported the board’s recommendation to maintain the current structure, emphasizing the importance of focusing on long-term strategic goals.

Rio Tinto Announces Director Departure
May 1, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited announced the cessation of Sam Laidlaw as a director effective May 1, 2025, as per the Final Director’s Interest Notice submitted to the ASX. This change in the board may influence the company’s strategic direction and governance, impacting stakeholders and potentially affecting its market positioning.

Rio Tinto Shareholders Uphold Current Corporate Structure
May 1, 2025

Rio Tinto’s annual general meetings in London and Perth addressed several resolutions, including a significant proposal to review the company’s dual-listed company (DLC) structure. The board recommended against this Requisitioned Resolution, citing potential financial and operational drawbacks, and the majority of shareholders voted in alignment with the board’s stance. The decision underscores Rio Tinto’s commitment to maintaining its current corporate structure, which is believed to optimize shareholder returns and market access, despite some shareholder support for the review.

Rio Tinto’s Strategic Growth and Operational Milestones in 2025
May 1, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited’s Chief Executive, Jakob Stausholm, highlighted the company’s strategic advancements and operational achievements during the 2025 Annual General Meeting. The acquisition of Arcadium Lithium marks a significant step in expanding their lithium business, aligning with the growing demand for this commodity. The company is also making substantial progress in major projects like the Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea and the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia. Additionally, Rio Tinto is committed to enhancing its ESG performance, stabilizing existing assets, and fostering strong relationships with local communities and suppliers, particularly in Western Australia.

Rio Tinto’s AGM Highlights Safety Commitment and Strong Financial Performance
May 1, 2025

At the 2025 Annual General Meeting, Rio Tinto’s Chair, Dominic Barton, highlighted the company’s commitment to safety following recent tragic incidents. The meeting also marked a transition in board leadership, with several directors stepping down and new appointments being announced. The company reported strong financial performance in 2024, with increased sales volumes and cash flow, and a significant dividend payout. Rio Tinto is on track for production growth, driven by major projects like Oyu Tolgoi and Rincon, and is focused on expanding its lithium business to support sustainable practices.

Vanguard Group Acquires Substantial Stake in Rio Tinto Limited
Apr 29, 2025

The Vanguard Group has become a substantial holder in Rio Tinto Limited, with a 5.001% voting power as of April 24, 2025. This development indicates a significant investment by Vanguard, potentially impacting Rio Tinto’s shareholder dynamics and reflecting confidence in the company’s market position.

Rio Tinto Issues Unquoted Securities Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Apr 28, 2025

Rio Tinto Limited has announced the issuance of 211,832 unquoted securities under an employee incentive scheme, which are subject to transfer restrictions and will not be quoted on the ASX until these restrictions are lifted. This move is part of the company’s strategy to incentivize employees, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and aligning employee interests with company performance, which could have positive implications for stakeholders.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Ceases Substantial Holding in Rio Tinto
Apr 27, 2025

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates have ceased to be substantial holders in Rio Tinto Limited, a major player in the mining industry known for its production of essential minerals and metals. This change in substantial holding, effective as of April 22, 2025, involves various transactions and adjustments in securities holdings by JPMorgan’s subsidiaries, impacting their voting interests in the company.

Rio Tinto Updates on Employee Share Plans and Management Transactions
Apr 27, 2025

Rio Tinto has announced updates regarding its Global Employee Share Plan (myShare) and UK Share Plan (UKSP), which allow employees to purchase company shares and receive matching shares. Recent transactions involved key management personnel acquiring and vesting shares, with some shares sold to cover taxes. These plans are part of Rio Tinto’s strategy to align employee interests with company performance, potentially impacting employee engagement and retention.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 19, 2025