BHP Group Ltd (BHP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $206.05B
• Dividend Yield: 4.21%
• Average Volume (3M): 7.60M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.97
• Revenue Growth: -6.74%
• EPS Growth: 15.92%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 38,962
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 1.50
• Shares Outstanding: 5,078,913,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,300,067
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,595,795
• PEG Ratio: 0.96
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.65
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.39
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.20
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.03
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.31
• 1Y Price Target: $41.85
• Price Target Upside: 2.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$48.00 ▲(17.73% Upside)

BHP Group Ltd scores well due to its strong technical indicators and reasonable valuation, supported by robust profitability and operational efficiency. However, challenges in revenue and free cash flow growth slightly temper the overall score.

Positive Factors

Negative Factors

BHP Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, the rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally. The company operates through Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal segments. It engages in the mining of copper, silver, zinc, molybdenum, uranium, gold, iron ore, and metallurgical and energy coal. The company is also involved in mining, smelting, and refining of nickel; and potash development activities. In addition, it provides towing, freight, marketing and trading, marketing support, finance, administrative, and other services. The company was founded in 1851 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

BHP Group Ltd makes money through the extraction and sale of natural resources. The company's primary revenue streams are derived from its mining operations, particularly from the production and sale of iron ore, copper, and coal. Iron ore is the most significant contributor to BHP's revenue, driven by global demand for steel production. Copper is another key revenue source, benefiting from its essential role in electrical infrastructure and renewable energy technologies. Additionally, the company generates income from its oil and gas operations, although this segment has seen strategic divestments in recent years. BHP often engages in long-term contracts and partnerships with major industrial and manufacturing firms worldwide, ensuring steady demand and cash flow. Fluctuations in commodity prices, driven by global economic conditions and geopolitical factors, significantly impact BHP's earnings.

BHP Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

BHP Group Ltd demonstrates strong profitability with high margins and a solid return on equity, indicating operational efficiency and effective capital management. However, the decline in revenue growth and free cash flow poses potential challenges.

Income Statement

BHP Group Ltd has shown a decline in revenue growth with a negative rate of -4.62% in the latest period, indicating a challenging market environment. However, the company maintains strong profitability with a gross profit margin of approximately 71.7% and a net profit margin of 17.6%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust at 38% and 50.3% respectively, showcasing operational efficiency despite revenue pressures.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.53, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity is strong at 19.5%, suggesting efficient use of equity capital to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 42.5%, highlighting a solid equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

BHP's cash flow statement shows a decline in free cash flow growth by -10.32%, which could be a concern for future investments and dividend payouts. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 2.07, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.03, reflecting adequate cash flow coverage of net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	53.75B	51.26B	56.03B	53.82B	65.10B	56.92B
Gross Profit	31.35B	36.73B	46.10B	27.66B	39.71B	34.04B
EBITDA	25.57B	25.77B	23.52B	28.61B	39.96B	30.23B
Net Income	11.39B	9.02B	7.90B	12.92B	30.90B	11.30B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	100.72B	108.79B	102.36B	101.30B	95.17B	108.93B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	9.61B	12.04B	12.65B	12.46B	17.54B	15.25B
Total Debt	21.71B	24.46B	20.18B	22.34B	16.43B	20.98B
Total Liabilities	51.13B	56.57B	53.24B	52.77B	46.40B	53.32B
Stockholders Equity	45.52B	46.23B	44.81B	44.50B	44.96B	51.26B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	10.36B	9.29B	11.85B	11.62B	26.06B	21.43B
Operating Cash Flow	20.10B	18.69B	20.66B	18.70B	32.17B	27.23B
Investing Cash Flow	-9.35B	-13.35B	-8.76B	-13.06B	-6.96B	-7.84B
Financing Cash Flow	-10.96B	-5.97B	-11.67B	-10.31B	-22.77B	-17.92B

BHP Group Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 40.77
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BHP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.77 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.37, above the 50-day MA of 40.20, and above the 200-day MA of 38.32, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:BHP.

BHP Group Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RIO	76 Outperform	161.21B	11.83	20.91%	5.03%	0.38%	-3.57%
FMG	75 Outperform	58.19B	11.16	16.88%	5.82%	-13.65%	-39.85%
BHP	75 Outperform	$206.05B	14.78	19.51%	4.21%	-6.74%	15.92%
ILU	71 Outperform	2.51B	13.18	9.80%	1.03%	-4.84%	-30.61%
S32	60 Neutral	11.72B	29.33	2.41%	3.83%	6.53%	0.00%
MIN	58 Neutral	7.54B	-8.36	0.00%	―	-15.27%	-817.26%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

BHP Group Ltd Corporate Events

BHP Achieves Record Iron Ore and Copper Production in 2025

BHP Group Ltd reported record production levels for iron ore and copper in 2025, highlighting the company’s operational strength and resilience amid global economic challenges. The company’s Western Australia iron ore operations and Chilean copper assets, including Escondida and Spence, achieved significant production milestones. BHP’s ongoing projects, such as the Jansen Stage 1 potash project in Canada, are progressing with revised cost and schedule estimates. The company is also advancing its sustainability initiatives, including reducing emissions through new shipping contracts and decarbonization trials in steelmaking. These developments position BHP to capitalize on resilient global commodity demand, driven by China’s economic activities and renewable energy investments.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BHP) stock is a Hold with a A$24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BHP Group Ltd stock, see the AU:BHP Stock Forecast page.

BHP Group Ltd Announces Cessation of Performance Rights

BHP Group Ltd announced the cessation of 149,722 performance rights due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This announcement may impact the company’s financial structuring and could influence stakeholder perceptions regarding the company’s performance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BHP) stock is a Hold with a A$24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BHP Group Ltd stock, see the AU:BHP Stock Forecast page.

BHP Group Ltd Issues New Unquoted Equity Securities

BHP Group Ltd has announced the issuance of 62,087 unquoted equity securities, specifically ordinary fully paid shares, as of June 30, 2025. This move is part of the company’s ongoing financial strategies and could impact its market positioning by potentially increasing its capital base and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BHP) stock is a Hold with a A$24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BHP Group Ltd stock, see the AU:BHP Stock Forecast page.

BHP Group Ltd Announces Change in Substantial Shareholder Interests

BHP Group Ltd has announced a change in the interests of its substantial shareholder, Citigroup Global Markets Australia Pty Limited, and its related entities. The notice reveals a decrease in Citigroup’s voting power from 6.2999% to 5.2988% due to various transactions involving Citibank, N.A., and its branches, as well as Citigroup Global Markets Funding Luxembourg S.C.A. These changes reflect routine adjustments in shareholding positions through standard market transactions and securities lending agreements.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BHP) stock is a Hold with a A$25.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BHP Group Ltd stock, see the AU:BHP Stock Forecast page.