BHP Group Ltd (BHP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $227.68B
• Dividend Yield: 3.86%
• Average Volume (3M): 7.54M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.97
• Revenue Growth: -6.74%
• EPS Growth: 15.92%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 38,962
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 1.50
• Shares Outstanding: 5,078,913,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,552,795
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,541,926
• PEG Ratio: 0.96
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.65
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.39
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.20
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.93
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.15
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.04
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.07
• 1Y Price Target: $42.78
• Price Target Upside: -3.43% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.31
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $78.19B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$44.00 ▼(-0.68% Downside)

BHP Group Ltd's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance, particularly its profitability and return on equity. The valuation is also favorable with a reasonable P/E ratio and attractive dividend yield. However, technical indicators suggest short-term bearish momentum, which slightly offsets the positive financial and valuation aspects.

BHP Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BHP Group Ltd (BHP) is a leading global resources company headquartered in Melbourne, Australia. It operates across multiple sectors, primarily focusing on the extraction and production of minerals and energy resources. BHP's core products include iron ore, copper, coal, and petroleum, which are critical inputs in various industries such as construction, manufacturing, and energy. The company has a significant presence in key mining regions around the world, including Australia, the Americas, and parts of Asia, positioning itself as a key player in the global commodities market.

How the Company Makes Money

BHP generates revenue primarily through the sale of its mineral and energy products. The company's revenue model is largely based on the extraction and production of commodities, which are then sold to various industries worldwide. Key revenue streams include iron ore sales, which contribute a substantial portion of the company's earnings, followed by copper, coal, and petroleum. BHP benefits from high demand for these commodities driven by industrial growth, particularly in emerging markets. Additionally, the company engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other mining and energy companies, which can enhance operational efficiencies and reduce costs. Factors such as global commodity prices, operational efficiency, and demand fluctuations significantly influence BHP's earnings.

BHP Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

BHP Group Ltd demonstrates strong profitability with high margins and a solid return on equity, indicating operational efficiency and effective capital management. However, the decline in revenue growth and free cash flow presents potential challenges.

Income Statement

BHP Group Ltd has shown a decline in revenue growth with a negative rate of -4.62% in the latest period, indicating a challenging market environment. However, the company maintains strong profitability with a gross profit margin of approximately 71.7% and a net profit margin of 17.6%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust at 38% and 50.3% respectively, showcasing operational efficiency despite revenue pressures.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.53, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity is strong at 19.5%, suggesting efficient use of equity capital to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 42.5%, highlighting a solid equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

BHP's cash flow statement shows a decline in free cash flow growth by -10.32%, which could be a concern for future investments and dividend payouts. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 2.07, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.03, reflecting adequate cash flow coverage of net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	51.26B	51.26B	56.03B	53.82B	65.10B	56.92B
Gross Profit	42.14B	36.73B	46.10B	27.66B	39.71B	34.04B
EBITDA	23.44B	25.77B	23.52B	28.61B	39.96B	30.23B
Net Income	9.02B	9.02B	7.90B	12.92B	30.90B	11.30B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	108.79B	108.79B	102.36B	101.30B	95.17B	108.93B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	12.04B	12.04B	12.65B	12.46B	17.54B	15.25B
Total Debt	24.46B	24.46B	20.18B	24.10B	16.79B	21.57B
Total Liabilities	56.57B	56.57B	53.24B	52.77B	46.40B	53.32B
Stockholders Equity	46.23B	46.23B	44.81B	44.50B	44.96B	51.26B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	8.90B	9.29B	11.85B	11.62B	26.06B	21.43B
Operating Cash Flow	18.69B	18.69B	20.66B	18.70B	32.17B	27.23B
Investing Cash Flow	-13.35B	-13.35B	-8.76B	-13.06B	-6.96B	-7.84B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.97B	-5.97B	-11.67B	-10.31B	-22.77B	-17.92B

BHP Group Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 44.30
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BHP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.41, above the 50-day MA of 42.70, and above the 200-day MA of 39.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.46 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:BHP.

BHP Group Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RIO	78 Outperform	$189.03B	14.07	18.11%	4.20%	0.38%	-3.57%
FMG	76 Outperform	$67.95B	13.04	17.06%	4.90%	-13.65%	-39.85%
BHP	68 Neutral	$227.68B	16.33	19.51%	3.86%	-6.74%	15.92%
ILU	68 Neutral	$2.67B	14.06	7.84%	0.98%	-4.84%	-30.61%
S32	64 Neutral	£13.72B	34.38	3.64%	2.77%	6.53%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
MIN	58 Neutral	$10.10B	―	-26.55%	―	-15.27%	-817.26%

BHP Group Ltd Corporate Events

BHP Group Settles Samarco Class Action with AU$110 Million Payout

The Federal Court of Australia has approved the settlement of the Australian Samarco shareholder class action involving BHP Group Limited. As part of the settlement, BHP has agreed to pay AU$110 million to the applicants, a sum that includes interest and costs, without admitting liability. The company anticipates recovering most of this amount from its insurers. This settlement marks a significant step in resolving legal issues related to the Samarco incident, potentially stabilizing BHP’s standing with its stakeholders and allowing it to focus on its core operations.

BHP Group Withdraws Merger Proposal with Anglo American

BHP Group Ltd has announced that it will not pursue a merger with Anglo American plc, despite recognizing the potential strategic benefits and value creation such a combination could offer. The company remains committed to its organic growth strategy, which it believes holds significant promise for stakeholders. This decision aligns with Rule 2.8 of the UK City Code on Takeovers and Mergers, although BHP reserves the right to reconsider under certain conditions.

BHP Liable for 2015 Dam Failure, Plans Appeal

BHP Group Ltd has been found liable by the English High Court under Brazilian law for the 2015 Fundão dam failure, with damages to be assessed in future trials. The company plans to appeal the decision and continues to defend against the UK group action, which involves over 600,000 claimants. BHP has already engaged in extensive remediation and compensation efforts in Brazil, including a comprehensive $32 billion settlement agreement with Brazilian authorities. The court’s decision validates releases signed by claimants who have received compensation in Brazil, potentially reducing the size and value of claims in the UK. BHP maintains that the UK group action duplicates efforts already made in Brazil and remains committed to fulfilling its obligations under the Brazil Agreement.

BHP Group Announces Change in Director’s Interest

BHP Group Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically for Mike Henry, who acquired additional performance and deferred rights under the company’s incentive plans. This acquisition involves 151,581 performance rights and 127,338 deferred rights, which are set to vest over the next two to five years. This move reflects BHP’s commitment to aligning executive interests with long-term company performance, potentially impacting shareholder value and corporate governance.

BHP Group Holds Annual General Meeting in Melbourne

BHP Group Limited is holding its Annual General Meeting in Melbourne, where the CEO and Chair will deliver addresses. The meeting is a significant event for the company, providing insights into its strategic direction and operational focus. This gathering is crucial for stakeholders to understand BHP’s positioning in the industry and any potential implications for its operations.

BHP Group Ltd Reports Strong Start to Fiscal Year with Increased Production and Strategic Growth Initiatives

BHP Group Ltd reported a robust start to the fiscal year, with a 4% increase in copper production and record throughput at its Escondida mine. The company achieved significant milestones in its iron ore and steelmaking coal operations, with record material mined and increased production rates. Key growth projects, such as the Jansen potash project in Canada, are progressing well, and BHP is on track to meet its full-year guidance. The company also secured environmental approval for the Laguna Seca Expansion and entered into a major renewable electricity agreement in South Australia, underscoring its commitment to decarbonization. Despite global economic uncertainties, BHP remains optimistic about commodity demand, particularly in China, and continues to strengthen its market position through disciplined capital management and strategic investments.

BHP Group Updates Dividend Reinvestment Plan Details

BHP Group Limited has updated its previous announcement regarding the dividend reinvestment plan allocation price. This update pertains to the dividend distribution for the six-month period ending June 30, 2025, and reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to shareholder returns. The announcement is important for stakeholders as it provides clarity on the financial aspects of the dividend plan, potentially impacting investor decisions and market perceptions.

BHP Group Ltd Announces 2025 AGM and Reports Strong FY2025 Performance

BHP Group Ltd has announced its 2025 Annual General Meeting, highlighting a strong financial performance in FY2025 with significant cash flow and dividends. The company distributed US$5.6 billion in dividends, reflecting 55% of its underlying attributable profit, and continues to align its portfolio with global trends, ensuring sustainable growth and rewarding shareholders.