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BHP Group Ltd (AU:BHP)
ASX:BHP

BHP Group Ltd (BHP) AI Stock Analysis

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AU

BHP Group Ltd

(Sydney:BHP)

68Neutral
BHP Group Ltd's overall score is bolstered by strong financial performance and attractive valuation metrics. Despite robust cash flow and stable balance sheet, challenges such as declining net profit margins and modest revenue growth impact the score. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, which weighs on the overall evaluation.
Positive Factors
Analyst Rating
Analyst maintains a Buy rating and a $47.50 per share price objective with 20% potential total shareholder return.
Financial Performance
BHP declared an interim dividend of 50 UScps, +2% versus consensus.
Production
Copper production is strong and performing well against expectations.
Negative Factors
Coal Production
Met coal production is weaker than expected due to high rainfall.
Cost Guidance
Increase in cost guidance for coal production due to weather challenges and operational issues.
Debt Levels
Net debt is expected to rise to around the top end of the target range following completion of the $2.0bn Vicuña transaction and payment of the 2H Samarco settlement obligations.

BHP Group Ltd (BHP) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

BHP Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBHP Group Ltd (BHP) is a leading global resources company headquartered in Australia. It is primarily involved in the extraction and processing of minerals, oil, and gas. BHP's core products include iron ore, copper, coal, nickel, and petroleum, serving vital sectors such as steel production, energy, and manufacturing. With operations spanning across several continents, BHP is committed to sustainable practices and innovation in resource extraction and management.
How the Company Makes MoneyBHP Group Ltd makes money through the exploration, production, and sale of natural resources. Its key revenue streams include the sale of iron ore, which is primarily used in steelmaking, and copper, essential for electrical equipment and construction. Additionally, BHP generates significant income from its petroleum operations, extracting and selling oil and gas. The company has strategic partnerships and long-term contracts with industrial clients worldwide, ensuring stable demand for its resources. Market prices for commodities and operational efficiency are significant factors influencing BHP's earnings, alongside its ongoing investments in technology and sustainability to enhance production capabilities.

BHP Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
BHP Group Ltd shows a strong financial profile with robust cash flow generation and solid profitability margins, though there is a noted decline in net profit margins and revenue growth. The balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage and strong equity. While the company demonstrates operational efficiency, attention to maintaining revenue and profit growth is advisable to sustain financial strength.
Income Statement
78
Positive
BHP Group Ltd demonstrated strong profitability with a Gross Profit Margin of 82.24% and an EBIT Margin of 31.29% in 2024. However, there was a noticeable decline in Net Profit Margin to 14.09% from 24.01% in 2023, indicating pressure on net profitability. Revenue growth was modest at 4.10% from 2023 to 2024, trailing previous years. While the EBITDA Margin remains robust at 41.98%, the slowdown in revenue growth and net income warrants attention.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
BHP maintains a stable financial position with an Equity Ratio of 43.79% and moderate leverage, evidenced by a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.45. The Return on Equity was 17.62% in 2024, indicating efficient use of equity despite a decline from 29.04% in 2023. The company's strong equity base and manageable debt levels provide a solid foundation, although the slight decrease in ROE suggests reduced profitability.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
The company's cash flow remains robust, with a 2.00% growth in Free Cash Flow from 2023 to 2024. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 2.62 highlights strong operational efficiency. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.50 in 2024 indicates effective cash generation relative to net income. Overall, the cash flow performance is excellent, with consistent free cash flow growth and high operational cash inflow.
Breakdown
Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
56.03B53.82B65.10B56.92B42.93B
Gross Profit
46.10B27.66B39.71B34.04B20.43B
EBIT
17.54B22.06B33.02B32.30B15.72B
EBITDA
23.52B27.12B38.64B30.23B18.05B
Net Income Common Stockholders
7.90B12.92B22.74B11.30B7.96B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
12.65B12.46B17.54B15.25B13.46B
Total Assets
102.36B101.30B95.17B108.93B105.73B
Total Debt
20.18B22.34B16.43B20.98B27.05B
Net Debt
7.79B9.92B-808.00M5.74B13.62B
Total Liabilities
53.24B52.77B46.40B53.32B53.56B
Stockholders Equity
44.81B44.50B44.96B51.26B47.87B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
11.85B11.62B26.06B21.43B8.07B
Operating Cash Flow
20.66B18.70B32.17B27.23B15.71B
Investing Cash Flow
-8.76B-13.06B-6.96B-7.84B-7.62B
Financing Cash Flow
-11.67B-10.31B-22.77B-17.92B-9.75B

BHP Group Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price37.54
Price Trends
50DMA
38.03
Negative
100DMA
38.63
Negative
200DMA
39.41
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.03
Negative
RSI
49.30
Neutral
STOCH
50.16
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BHP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 37.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.10, below the 50-day MA of 38.03, and below the 200-day MA of 39.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:BHP.

BHP Group Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
AUFMG
76
Outperform
$49.18B8.3120.21%8.96%-11.33%-32.11%
AURIO
75
Outperform
$158.57B10.7121.04%7.72%-0.10%15.50%
AUILU
73
Outperform
$1.72B7.5910.39%1.99%-9.35%-32.77%
AUBHP
68
Neutral
$190.80B11.0826.20%5.20%-2.47%57.01%
AUS32
54
Neutral
£12.77B55.78-3.53%3.79%-19.74%
AUMIN
51
Neutral
$4.04B50.78-33.95%4.54%2.22%-411.10%
49
Neutral
$1.95B-1.21-21.28%3.72%1.18%-30.47%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:BHP
BHP Group Ltd
37.54
-3.65
-8.87%
AU:ILU
Iluka Resources Limited
4.08
-3.36
-45.16%
AU:S32
South32
2.79
-0.71
-20.35%
AU:MIN
Mineral Resources Limited
21.06
-55.35
-72.44%
AU:FMG
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd
15.96
-8.09
-33.64%
AU:RIO
Rio Tinto Limited
114.98
-7.26
-5.94%

BHP Group Ltd Corporate Events

BHP Group Director Increases Stake in Company Shares
Apr 14, 2025

BHP Group Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, with Dion Weisler acquiring 1,450 ordinary shares indirectly through Dish Nominees Pty Ltd, a private investment entity for the Weisler family. This on-market purchase increases Weisler’s indirect holdings, reflecting a strategic move that could signal confidence in the company’s future performance, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions and market positioning.

BHP Director Increases Stake with Additional Share Acquisition
Apr 11, 2025

BHP Group Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, with Ross McEwan acquiring an additional 10,000 ordinary shares in the company, bringing his total indirect holdings to 45,000 shares. This acquisition, conducted through an on-market purchase, reflects a notable increase in McEwan’s stake in the company, potentially signaling confidence in BHP’s future performance and stability, which could positively influence stakeholder sentiment.

BHP Group Issues Over 2 Million New Securities as Part of Employee Incentive Scheme
Apr 3, 2025

BHP Group Limited has announced the issuance of 2,091,047 ordinary fully paid securities, which will be quoted on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). This move is part of an employee incentive scheme, indicating BHP’s ongoing efforts to align employee interests with company performance. The issuance of these securities may enhance BHP’s market liquidity and reflects the company’s commitment to rewarding its workforce, potentially impacting its operational dynamics and stakeholder relations positively.

Ken MacKenzie Retires from BHP Group Board
Apr 2, 2025

Ken MacKenzie has retired from his role as an independent Non-executive Director of BHP Group Ltd as of March 31, 2025. This change in the board could influence the company’s governance and strategic direction, potentially impacting stakeholders and the company’s positioning in the resources sector.

BHP Group Updates Dividend Distribution Details
Mar 11, 2025

BHP Group Ltd announced an update to its previous dividend distribution notification, providing details on currency rates and conversions for AUD, GBP, and NZD. This update pertains to the dividend for the six-month period ending December 31, 2024, with key dates including a record date of March 7, 2025, and a payment date following shortly after. The announcement reflects BHP’s ongoing commitment to transparency and shareholder engagement, potentially impacting investor relations and market perceptions.

BHP Group Updates Dividend Distribution Details
Feb 25, 2025

BHP Group Ltd has updated its previous announcement regarding the dividend distribution for the period ending December 31, 2024. The update includes details on the ZAR currency rate and local currency conversion, with the record date set for March 7, 2025, and the ex-date on March 6, 2025. This announcement is crucial for stakeholders as it provides clarity on the financial aspects of the dividend distribution, potentially impacting investor decisions and market perceptions.

BHP CEO to Present at Global Metals and Mining Conference
Feb 24, 2025

BHP Group Ltd’s CEO, Mike Henry, is set to present at the Bank of America Securities 2025 Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference in Miami. The presentation will address key aspects of BHP’s operations and strategic positioning within the global mining sector. The event underscores BHP’s commitment to maintaining its leadership role in the industry, with potential implications for stakeholders and market dynamics.

BHP Director Christine O’Reilly Increases Stake in Company
Feb 23, 2025

BHP Group Limited announced a change in the director’s interest as Christine O’Reilly acquired an additional 1,200 ordinary shares indirectly through an on-market purchase. This update reflects the director’s increased stake in the company, reinforcing confidence in BHP’s market position and potential future growth.

BHP Director Increases Shareholdings with Significant On-Market Purchase
Feb 19, 2025

BHP Group Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically concerning Ross McEwan, who increased his indirect holdings in the company by acquiring 25,000 ordinary shares. The purchase was made on-market at a price of AUD 40.53 per share, bringing McEwan’s total indirect shareholding to 35,000 shares in BHP. This transaction reflects a significant investment by a key director, which could be interpreted as a positive signal to the market about the company’s future prospects.

BHP Group Successfully Prices US$3 Billion Bond Offer
Feb 19, 2025

BHP Group Limited has successfully priced a US$3.0 billion bond offer in the US market, which includes three tranches with varying tenors and fixed coupon rates. The proceeds from these bonds, issued by its subsidiary BHP Billiton Finance (USA) Limited, will be used for general corporate purposes, potentially enhancing the company’s financial flexibility and operational capabilities.

BHP Group Announces Dividend Distribution for H2 2024
Feb 17, 2025

BHP Group Limited has announced a dividend distribution of USD 0.50 per ordinary fully paid share, related to a six-month period ending December 31, 2024. The dividend will be paid on March 27, 2025, with a record date of March 7, 2025, and an ex-dividend date of March 6, 2025. This announcement reflects BHP’s commitment to returning value to shareholders and positions the company competitively within the mining sector, potentially impacting investor perceptions positively.

BHP Group Reports Robust Profit Growth Amidst Revenue Decline
Feb 17, 2025

BHP Group Ltd reported strong financial results for the half-year ending December 2024, with profit after taxation skyrocketing by 376% to $4.4 billion despite an 8% decline in revenue. The company declared an interim dividend of 50 US cents per share, amounting to $2.5 billion, reflecting its operational resilience amidst fluctuating market conditions. The period saw notable production gains, particularly a 10% increase in copper production and strategic investments in growth sectors like potash and copper, including the formation of a joint venture with Lundin Mining in Argentina. Additionally, BHP is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing global demand for metals driven by urbanization and technological advancements, underpinned by its robust balance sheet and commitment to sustainable practices.

BHP Group Ltd Announces Chair Succession
Feb 12, 2025

BHP Group Ltd has announced a change in its board leadership, with current Chair Ken MacKenzie set to retire on 31 March 2025, to be succeeded by Ross McEwan. MacKenzie, who has been with BHP since 2016, played a pivotal role in transforming BHP’s portfolio and enhancing its operational efficiency and resilience. Incoming Chair Ross McEwan, with extensive global executive experience, is expected to continue focusing on long-term value creation and driving organisational transformation with an emphasis on technology and customer engagement.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.