BHP Group Ltd (AU:BHP)
ASX:BHP
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BHP Group Ltd
(Sydney:BHP)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
AU$63.00
▲(12.66% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/31/26
The score is driven mainly by solid financial quality (high margins and ROE despite revenue/FCF headwinds) and a very attractive valuation (low P/E with a strong dividend yield), reinforced by a positive earnings call featuring strong results, higher shareholder returns, and raised copper guidance. Technical signals are more neutral, limiting the score’s upside in the near term.
Positive Factors
High Profitability & ROCE
Sustained high margins and a 24% ROCE indicate durable operating leverage and efficient capital allocation. Strong profitability supports reinvestment in growth, cushions commodity cycles, and underpins ongoing dividend capacity and shareholder returns over multiple years.
Negative Factors
Jansen Stage 1 Capex & Execution Risk
Very large up-front capex increases project execution and funding risk. Cost overruns or delays on an $8.4bn stage can materially defer expected EBITDA, tie up capital, and pressure near- to medium-term free cash flow and returns from the potash growth option.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Profitability & ROCE
Sustained high margins and a 24% ROCE indicate durable operating leverage and efficient capital allocation. Strong profitability supports reinvestment in growth, cushions commodity cycles, and underpins ongoing dividend capacity and shareholder returns over multiple years.
Read all positive factors
BHP Group Ltd (BHP) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$285.08B
Dividend Yield3.75%
Average Volume (3M)11.62M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.7
Beta (1Y)1.23
Revenue Growth-6.74%
EPS Growth15.92%
CountryAU
Employees38,962
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.56
Shares Outstanding5,081,391,600
10 Day Avg. Volume12,894,620
30 Day Avg. Volume11,622,220
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.96
Price to Book (P/B)2.65
Price to Sales (P/S)2.39
P/FCF Ratio13.20
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$51.71Price Target Upside-7.53% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)2.54
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$56.97B
BHP Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, the rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally. The company operates through Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal segments. It eng...
How the Company Makes Money
BHP makes money primarily by producing and selling bulk and base-metal commodities under market-linked and contract-based pricing structures. Its core revenue streams include: (1) Iron ore: BHP mines and processes iron ore and sells it to steel pr...
BHP Group Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 16, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call is predominantly positive: management reported record operational and financial results (EBITDA +25%, strong margins), raised copper guidance, delivered operational records and improved unit costs, announced significant cash-generating transactions and increased shareholder returns (interim dividend +46% half-on-half). Notable execution risks and cost/capex considerations were disclosed — primarily a Jansen Stage 1 cost update ($8.4bn), a 10% grade decline at Escondida, geotechnical issues in an underground coal mine, and project permitting/timing uncertainty — but these issues are relatively limited compared with the breadth and scale of positive results and optionality presented.Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Underlying EBITDA grew 25% with an increased margin of 58%; underlying attributable profit was $6.2 billion; return on capital employed (ROCE) rose to 24% year-on-year.
Negative Updates
Escondida Grade Decline
Escondida experienced a 10% lower grade in the period—an operational challenge that required throughput and recovery improvements to maintain volumes (although costs improved 16%).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Financial Performance
Underlying EBITDA grew 25% with an increased margin of 58%; underlying attributable profit was $6.2 billion; return on capital employed (ROCE) rose to 24% year-on-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance emphasized continued cash generation, disciplined returns and material copper and iron growth: underlying EBITDA rose 25% (58% margin), underlying attributable profit was $6.2bn and ROCE 24%, supporting an interim dividend of US$0.73/share (up 46% H/H) and a $3.7bn half‑year payout (60% payout ratio); they expect ~US$60bn of attributable free cash flow over the next five years (c.US$10bn in an extreme low‑price stress), see up to US$10bn of capital that could be unlocked (over US$6bn already announced — US$4.3bn for Antamina, US$2bn WAIO power), raised copper guidance (Escondida +150kt cumulative over two years, FY27 guidance 1.0–1.1Mt, >500kt extra over next five years = ~US$5bn EBITDA), target ~2.5Mt Cu‑eq p.a. by the mid‑2030s with ~3–4% CAGR to 2035 (around 40% production growth by 2035), plan iron ore volumes >305Mtpa by end FY28 (option to 330Mtpa) and costs <US$17.50/t (WAIO C1 US$17.66/t), updated Stage 1 cost to US$8.4bn with first production mid‑2027 (Jansen expected ~US$1bn EBITDA per stage, >60% margins), while group production was +2% and unit costs improved ~4.5% this half; safety metrics improved and there were no fatalities.BHP Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
75
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 54.50B | 51.26B | 56.03B | 53.82B | 65.10B | 56.92B |
| Gross Profit | 45.08B | 36.73B | 46.10B | 27.66B | 39.71B | 34.04B |
| EBITDA | 27.16B | 25.77B | 23.52B | 28.61B | 39.96B | 30.23B |
| Net Income | 10.35B | 9.02B | 7.90B | 12.92B | 30.90B | 11.30B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 116.09B | 108.79B | 102.36B | 101.30B | 95.17B | 108.93B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 13.82B | 12.04B | 12.65B | 12.46B | 17.54B | 15.25B |
| Total Debt | 31.55B | 24.46B | 20.18B | 24.10B | 16.79B | 21.57B |
| Total Liabilities | 60.59B | 56.57B | 53.24B | 52.77B | 46.40B | 53.32B |
| Stockholders Equity | 50.44B | 46.23B | 44.81B | 44.50B | 44.96B | 51.26B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 10.17B | 9.29B | 11.85B | 11.62B | 26.06B | 21.43B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 19.92B | 18.69B | 20.66B | 18.70B | 32.17B | 27.23B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -14.27B | -13.35B | -8.76B | -13.06B | -6.96B | -7.84B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.18B | -5.97B | -11.67B | -10.31B | -22.77B | -17.92B |
BHP Group Ltd Technical Analysis
Positive
55.92
Price Trends
52.03
Positive
48.56
Positive
44.45
Positive
Market Momentum
1.35
Negative
65.09
Neutral
90.92
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BHP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 55.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.06, above the 50-day MA of 52.03, and above the 200-day MA of 44.45, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.92 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:BHP.
BHP Group Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | AU$63.92B | 5.80 | 18.83% | 4.96% | -13.65% | -39.85% | |
74 Outperform | AU$285.08B | 6.71 | 21.41% | 3.75% | -6.74% | 15.92% | |
68 Neutral | AU$236.92B | 15.43 | 16.59% | 3.93% | 0.38% | -3.57% | |
63 Neutral | AU$20.72B | 5.91 | 3.36% | 2.67% | 6.53% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
54 Neutral | AU$11.44B | 5.40 | 11.50% | ― | -15.27% | -817.26% | |
45 Neutral | AU$6.33B | -45.43 | -9.95% | ― | -37.23% | -32433.33% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:BHP
BHP Group Ltd
55.92
20.90
59.68%
AU:S32
South32
4.53
1.95
75.38%
AU:FMG
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd
21.23
7.04
49.59%
AU:IGO
IGO
9.25
5.67
158.38%
AU:MIN
Mineral Resources Limited
63.54
46.54
273.76%
AU:RIO
Rio Tinto Limited
173.75
68.96
65.81%
BHP Group Ltd Corporate Events
BHP Reports Lapse of 140,325 Performance Rights, No New Shares Issued
Apr 13, 2026
BHP Group Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 140,325 performance rights that lapsed on March 31, 2026 because the conditions attached to these rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The lapse reduces the pool ...
BHP Updates Dividend Reinvestment Plan Allocation Details
Apr 12, 2026
BHP Group Ltd has updated its dividend notification for its ordinary fully paid shares, clarifying details related to a previously announced distribution for the six-month period ending 31 December 2025. The company’s latest filing specifies...
BHP to List 2.48 Million New Shares from Employee Incentive Scheme
Apr 2, 2026
BHP Group Ltd has applied to the ASX for quotation of 2,478,531 new ordinary fully paid shares, to be issued on 1 April 2026. The new securities arise from an employee incentive scheme and will be fully tradeable on the market, indicating ongoing ...
BHP Locks In US$4.3 Billion Silver Streaming Deal With Wheaton
Apr 1, 2026
BHP has completed a long-term silver streaming agreement with Wheaton Precious Metals covering its share of silver production from the Antamina copper-zinc mine in Peru. Under the deal, BHP receives US$4.3 billion in upfront consideration, strengt...
BHP Updates Dividend Details With Multi‑Currency Conversion Rates
Mar 8, 2026
BHP Group Ltd has issued an updated notification regarding its latest dividend for ordinary fully paid shares, relating to the six‑month period ended 31 December 2025. The update, dated 9 March 2026, revises the previous 2 March 2026 announc...
BHP Updates Dividend Notice to Clarify South African Rand Conversion
Mar 1, 2026
BHP Group Limited has updated its previously announced dividend notification for its ordinary fully paid shares, relating to the six‑month period ended 31 December 2025. The update, dated 2 March 2026, advises changes tied to the South Afric...
BHP Lifts Copper Guidance on Record Output as Iron Ore and Coal Operations Hit New Highs
Jan 19, 2026
BHP reported a strong operational performance for the half year to 31 December 2025, highlighted by record copper and iron ore output at key assets and stable unit costs across the portfolio. Copper production guidance for FY26 has been raised for...
BHP Lifts Jansen Potash Budget to US$8.4bn and Delays First Output to 2027
Jan 19, 2026
BHP has raised the total investment estimate for Stage 1 of its Jansen potash project in Canada to US$8.4 billion and pushed the first production date back to mid-2027, citing additional construction hours and materials, prior inflationary and cos...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.