BHP Group Ltd (BHP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$201.97B
• Dividend Yield: 4.78%
• Average Volume (3M): 8.41M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.98
• Revenue Growth: -2.47%
• EPS Growth: 57.01%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 38,962
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 57
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 1.54
• Shares Outstanding: 5,075,992,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,247,054
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,411,754
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$42.13
• Price Target Upside: 5.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$44.00 ▲(10.55% Upside)

BHP Group Ltd exhibits a strong financial foundation with efficient cash generation and a solid dividend yield, making it attractive for investors seeking income. The technical indicators suggest mixed momentum, and while the stock appears reasonably valued, the decline in net profit margins and revenue growth should be monitored.

Positive Factors

Copper production

Strong copper production driven by higher throughput at Escondida.

Dividend

BHP declared an interim dividend of 50 UScps, +2% versus consensus.

Financial performance

BHP has reported 1H FY25 results with underlying EBITDA of $12.4bn, in line with consensus of $12.3bn.

Negative Factors

Coal production

Met coal production is weaker than expected due to high rainfall.

Cost pressures

Jansen capex now expected to be in the range of $7-7.4bn, up from $5.4bn, driven by cost pressures, design and scope changes and lower productivity.

Net debt

Net debt is expected to rise to around the top end of the target range following completion of the $2.0bn Vicuña transaction and payment of the 2H Samarco settlement obligations.

BHP Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BHP Group Ltd (BHP) is a leading global resources company headquartered in Melbourne, Australia. It is primarily involved in the exploration, development, and production of a broad range of commodities, including iron ore, metallurgical coal, copper, and petroleum. BHP operates across various sectors, including mining and oil and gas, and is committed to sustainable and responsible resource development.

How the Company Makes Money

BHP Group Ltd makes money through the extraction and sale of natural resources. The company's primary revenue streams are derived from its mining operations, particularly from the production and sale of iron ore, copper, and coal. Iron ore is the most significant contributor to BHP's revenue, driven by global demand for steel production. Copper is another key revenue source, benefiting from its essential role in electrical infrastructure and renewable energy technologies. Additionally, the company generates income from its oil and gas operations, although this segment has seen strategic divestments in recent years. BHP often engages in long-term contracts and partnerships with major industrial and manufacturing firms worldwide, ensuring steady demand and cash flow. Fluctuations in commodity prices, driven by global economic conditions and geopolitical factors, significantly impact BHP's earnings.

BHP Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

BHP Group Ltd demonstrates a strong financial profile with robust cash flow generation and solid profitability margins. However, there is a noted decline in net profit margins and revenue growth. The balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage and strong equity.

Income Statement

BHP Group Ltd demonstrated strong profitability with a Gross Profit Margin of 82.24% and an EBIT Margin of 31.29% in 2024. However, there was a noticeable decline in Net Profit Margin to 14.09% from 24.01% in 2023, indicating pressure on net profitability. Revenue growth was modest at 4.10% from 2023 to 2024, trailing previous years. While the EBITDA Margin remains robust at 41.98%, the slowdown in revenue growth and net income warrants attention.

Balance Sheet

BHP maintains a stable financial position with an Equity Ratio of 43.79% and moderate leverage, evidenced by a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.45. The Return on Equity was 17.62% in 2024, indicating efficient use of equity despite a decline from 29.04% in 2023. The company's strong equity base and manageable debt levels provide a solid foundation, although the slight decrease in ROE suggests reduced profitability.

Cash Flow

The company's cash flow remains robust, with a 2.00% growth in Free Cash Flow from 2023 to 2024. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 2.62 highlights strong operational efficiency. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.50 in 2024 indicates effective cash generation relative to net income. Overall, the cash flow performance is excellent, with consistent free cash flow growth and high operational cash inflow.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	56.03B	53.82B	65.10B	56.92B	42.93B
Gross Profit	46.10B	27.66B	39.71B	34.04B	20.43B
EBITDA	23.52B	28.61B	39.96B	30.23B	18.75B
Net Income	7.90B	12.92B	30.90B	11.30B	7.96B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	102.36B	101.30B	95.17B	108.93B	105.73B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	12.65B	12.46B	17.54B	15.25B	13.46B
Total Debt	20.18B	22.34B	16.43B	20.98B	27.05B
Total Liabilities	53.24B	52.77B	46.40B	53.32B	53.56B
Stockholders Equity	44.81B	44.50B	44.96B	51.26B	47.87B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	11.85B	11.62B	26.06B	21.43B	8.07B
Operating Cash Flow	20.66B	18.70B	32.17B	27.23B	15.71B
Investing Cash Flow	-8.76B	-13.06B	-6.96B	-7.84B	-7.62B
Financing Cash Flow	-11.67B	-10.31B	-22.77B	-17.92B	-9.75B

BHP Group Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 39.80
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BHP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.91, above the 50-day MA of 38.51, and above the 200-day MA of 39.00, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.82 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:BHP.

BHP Group Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BHP	74 Outperform	AU$201.97B	11.68	26.20%	4.78%	-2.47%	57.01%
Sector *	44 Neutral	C$861.96M	-6.77	-14.90%	2.79%	16.54%	-27.01%
S32	―	£6.42B	56.96	-3.53%	3.90%	―	―
FSUMF	―	$36.74B	9.33	20.21%	7.48%	―	―
ILKAF	―	$1.61B	9.66	10.39%	1.62%	―	―
MALRF	―	$4.16B	43.31	-33.95%	4.54%	―	―
RTNTF	―	$102.33B	11.54	18.11%	3.24%	―	―

BHP Group Ltd Corporate Events

BHP Achieves Record Iron Ore and Copper Production in 2025

BHP Group Ltd reported record production levels for iron ore and copper in 2025, highlighting the company’s operational strength and resilience amid global economic challenges. The company’s Western Australia iron ore operations and Chilean copper assets, including Escondida and Spence, achieved significant production milestones. BHP’s ongoing projects, such as the Jansen Stage 1 potash project in Canada, are progressing with revised cost and schedule estimates. The company is also advancing its sustainability initiatives, including reducing emissions through new shipping contracts and decarbonization trials in steelmaking. These developments position BHP to capitalize on resilient global commodity demand, driven by China’s economic activities and renewable energy investments.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BHP) stock is a Hold with a A$24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BHP Group Ltd stock, see the AU:BHP Stock Forecast page.

BHP Group Ltd Announces Cessation of Performance Rights

BHP Group Ltd announced the cessation of 149,722 performance rights due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This announcement may impact the company’s financial structuring and could influence stakeholder perceptions regarding the company’s performance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BHP) stock is a Hold with a A$24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BHP Group Ltd stock, see the AU:BHP Stock Forecast page.

BHP Group Ltd Issues New Unquoted Equity Securities

BHP Group Ltd has announced the issuance of 62,087 unquoted equity securities, specifically ordinary fully paid shares, as of June 30, 2025. This move is part of the company’s ongoing financial strategies and could impact its market positioning by potentially increasing its capital base and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BHP) stock is a Hold with a A$24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BHP Group Ltd stock, see the AU:BHP Stock Forecast page.

BHP Group Ltd Announces Change in Substantial Shareholder Interests

BHP Group Ltd has announced a change in the interests of its substantial shareholder, Citigroup Global Markets Australia Pty Limited, and its related entities. The notice reveals a decrease in Citigroup’s voting power from 6.2999% to 5.2988% due to various transactions involving Citibank, N.A., and its branches, as well as Citigroup Global Markets Funding Luxembourg S.C.A. These changes reflect routine adjustments in shareholding positions through standard market transactions and securities lending agreements.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BHP) stock is a Hold with a A$25.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BHP Group Ltd stock, see the AU:BHP Stock Forecast page.