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Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (AU:FMG)
ASX:FMG
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Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:FMG

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd

(Sydney:FMG)

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Outperform 76 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
AU$23.00
▲(10.63% Upside)
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd scores well due to strong technical indicators and a solid financial foundation. The stock's bullish momentum and attractive dividend yield enhance its appeal. However, challenges in revenue and cash flow growth slightly temper the overall score.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFortescue Metals Group Limited engages in the exploration, development, production, processing, and sale of iron ore in Australia, China, and internationally. It also explores for copper and gold deposits. The company owns and operates the Chichester Hub that includes the Cloudbreak and Christmas Creek mines located in the Chichester ranges; and the Solomon Hub comprising the Firetail, Kings Valley, and Queens Valley mines located in the Hamersley ranges of Pilbara, Western Australia. It is also developing the Eliwana mine situated in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. In addition, the company holds a portfolio of properties situated in Ecuador, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, Chile, and Brazil, as well as Portugal and Kazakhstan. Further, it provides port towage services. Fortescue Metals Group Limited was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in East Perth, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyFortescue Metals Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of iron ore to global markets, especially in Asia. The company's revenue model is based on the extraction and sale of iron ore, which is a critical raw material for steel production. Key revenue streams include the direct sale of iron ore fines and lump ore, with pricing typically linked to global iron ore benchmarks. FMG has established long-term contracts and spot market sales, allowing for flexibility in pricing strategies. Additionally, the company has forged significant partnerships with various stakeholders in the mining and steel industries, enhancing its market reach and operational efficiency. Factors contributing to FMG's earnings include the global demand for steel, operational efficiency in mining and logistics, and strategic investments in technology and infrastructure to reduce costs and increase production capacity.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd demonstrates strong financial stability with a solid balance sheet and efficient operations. However, recent declines in revenue and profitability, coupled with negative cash flow growth, suggest challenges in maintaining growth momentum. The company remains well-positioned in terms of financial leverage and capital structure, but needs to address revenue and cash flow pressures to sustain long-term growth.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has shown a decline in revenue and profitability in the latest year, with a negative revenue growth rate of -5.67% and a decrease in net profit margin from 31.38% to 21.88%. However, the company maintains a strong gross profit margin of 56.73% and an EBIT margin of 32.49%, indicating efficient cost management despite revenue pressures.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The company exhibits a solid balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.27, reflecting prudent financial leverage. The equity ratio stands at 65.48%, showcasing a strong capital structure. Return on equity is robust at 16.88%, although it has decreased from previous years, indicating a slight decline in profitability.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Operating cash flow remains strong at $6.47 billion, though it has decreased from the prior year. The free cash flow growth rate is negative at -2.68%, suggesting challenges in generating cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.92, indicating good cash conversion, but the free cash flow to net income ratio has declined to 0.96, highlighting potential cash flow constraints.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue16.35B15.42B18.11B16.66B17.31B22.43B
Gross Profit7.17B8.75B11.53B8.74B9.74B15.51B
EBITDA8.22B7.56B10.52B8.68B10.40B16.18B
Net Income3.90B3.37B5.68B4.80B6.20B10.29B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets29.22B30.52B30.06B28.94B29.09B29.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.41B4.33B4.90B4.28B5.22B6.93B
Total Debt5.44B5.44B5.40B5.31B6.10B4.25B
Total Liabilities10.03B10.56B10.53B10.98B11.75B11.36B
Stockholders Equity19.22B19.98B19.55B17.95B17.33B17.73B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow3.33B3.24B5.08B4.44B3.62B9.17B
Operating Cash Flow6.18B6.47B7.92B7.31B6.27B12.58B
Investing Cash Flow-3.06B-3.92B-2.81B-3.08B-2.91B-3.69B
Financing Cash Flow-4.40B-3.19B-4.46B-4.91B-4.81B-6.80B

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price20.79
Price Trends
50DMA
19.19
Positive
100DMA
17.85
Positive
200DMA
16.98
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.46
Negative
RSI
68.91
Neutral
STOCH
83.99
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:FMG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.70, above the 50-day MA of 19.19, and above the 200-day MA of 16.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.99 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:FMG.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$63.15B12.1117.06%5.29%-13.65%-39.85%
$3.31B17.407.84%0.84%-4.84%-30.61%
£14.45B36.183.64%2.90%6.53%
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
$10.40B-5.63%-38.69%-174.12%
AU$8.81B-26.55%-15.27%-817.26%
$4.41B-35.65%-37.23%-32433.33%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:FMG
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd
20.79
2.46
13.42%
AU:S32
South32
3.24
-0.37
-10.20%
AU:PLS
Pilbara Minerals
3.28
0.43
15.09%
AU:ILU
Iluka Resources Limited
7.18
1.26
21.18%
AU:IGO
IGO
5.67
0.27
5.00%
AU:MIN
Mineral Resources Limited
44.93
7.93
21.43%

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Corporate Events

Fortescue Metals Achieves Record Q1 Shipments and Advances Decarbonization Efforts
Oct 22, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd reported a record first quarter for FY26 with iron ore shipments reaching 49.7 million tonnes, a 4% increase from the previous year. The company has made significant strides in its decarbonization efforts, including the successful syndication of a Renminbi-denominated loan and the establishment of global partnerships to drive profitable decarbonization. Additionally, Fortescue has optimized its Hematite life of mine plan, incorporating the Blacksmith Project to maintain a low-cost, capital-efficient operation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Buy with a A$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Upsizes Cash Tender Offers Amid Strong Demand
Oct 21, 2025

Fortescue Ltd announced the early results of its cash tender offers, increasing the total amount from US$600 million to US$750 million due to strong participation. The company upsized the tender cap for its 4.375% Senior Notes due 2031 to US$500 million and plans to purchase US$500 million of these notes and US$250 million of its 5.875% Senior Notes due 2030. This move reflects Fortescue’s strategic financial management and could enhance its liquidity position, potentially impacting its market standing positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Hold with a A$18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Announces Cessation of Securities
Oct 13, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd announced the cessation of certain securities, specifically the lapse of 9,318 performance rights and 9,339 vested rights. This development may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for its stakeholders, as it reflects adjustments in the company’s financial management and strategic planning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Hold with a A$18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Announces Equity Securities Update
Oct 13, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has announced the issuance, conversion, or payment up of unquoted equity securities, as detailed in their latest notification. This move indicates the company’s ongoing efforts to manage its equity structure effectively, which could impact its financial strategy and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Hold with a A$18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Ltd Launches US$600 Million Debt Repurchase Offer
Oct 6, 2025

Fortescue Ltd announced a tender offer to repurchase up to US$600 million of its outstanding notes, specifically targeting its 2030, 2031, and 2032 Senior Notes. This strategic move aims to manage the company’s debt profile and potentially improve its financial flexibility, with priority given to the 2031 Notes, followed by the 2030 and 2032 Notes, reflecting a structured approach to debt reduction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Hold with a A$17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Group Announces Director’s Interest Change
Oct 2, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has announced a change in the director’s interest notice for Dr. Larry Marshall, who has increased his direct interest in the company’s ordinary securities. The change, effective from September 26, 2025, was made through the Dividend Reinvestment Plan, resulting in Dr. Marshall acquiring an additional 707 ordinary shares, bringing his total holdings to 22,863 shares. This adjustment reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to align its leadership’s interests with shareholder value, potentially enhancing stakeholder confidence in its governance and operational strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Sell with a A$16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Announces Director’s Interest Change
Oct 2, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd announced a change in the director’s interest notice, specifically for Director Mark Barnaba. The change involved the acquisition of additional securities through a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, increasing his direct and indirect holdings. This update reflects ongoing adjustments in the company’s governance and director’s investment strategies, potentially impacting shareholder perceptions and the company’s market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Sell with a A$16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Advances Global Decarbonization Partnerships
Sep 25, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd announced its strategic decarbonization partnerships during Climate Week NYC and the United Nations General Assembly. The company is forming global alliances with leading technology and manufacturing firms to accelerate industrial decarbonization and achieve its Real Zero target by 2030. These partnerships include collaborations with electric vehicle and battery manufacturer BYD, solar technology company LONGi, and other green energy innovators. Fortescue’s efforts are supported by research and development initiatives across the US, UK, and Australia, ensuring integration of cutting-edge technology into its operations and promoting global decarbonization.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Hold with a A$19.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Unveils 2025 Climate Transition Plan
Sep 23, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has released its 2025 Climate Transition Plan, highlighting its ongoing commitment to sustainability and environmental responsibility. This plan is a strategic move to align with global climate goals, potentially enhancing Fortescue’s industry positioning and reassuring stakeholders of its dedication to reducing carbon emissions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Hold with a A$19.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Updates Dividend Reinvestment Plan
Sep 11, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has updated its previous announcement regarding its Dividend Reinvestment Plan Allocation Price. This update pertains to the dividend distribution for the financial period ending on June 30, 2025, with a record date of September 2, 2025. The announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to shareholder returns and could influence investor sentiment positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Buy with a A$20.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Sets Dividend Reinvestment Plan Price for 2025
Sep 11, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd announced the allocation price for its Dividend Reinvestment Plan, set at $18.8233 per share for the 2025 final dividend. This price was determined based on the average market price of Fortescue shares over a specified trading period. The shares are expected to be issued to participants on 26 September 2025, aligning with the company’s strategic financial management and shareholder engagement efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Buy with a A$20.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Group Issues Unquoted Equity Securities for Employee Incentives
Sep 4, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities under an employee incentive scheme. This move involves the allocation of performance rights and vested rights, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, reflecting the company’s ongoing efforts to incentivize and retain its workforce.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Buy with a A$20.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Group Issues Unquoted Equity Securities
Sep 4, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd announced the issuance and conversion of unquoted equity securities, reflecting a strategic move to manage its financial instruments. This development may impact the company’s capital structure and provide insights into its financial strategy, potentially affecting stakeholders’ interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Buy with a A$20.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Group Schedules 2025 AGM and Director Nomination Deadline
Sep 4, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has announced that its 2025 Annual General Meeting will be held on October 31, 2025. Additionally, the deadline for director nominations is set for September 12, 2025. This announcement is part of the company’s compliance with ASX listing rules, ensuring transparency and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Buy with a A$20.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Director Increases Stake Signaling Confidence
Sep 2, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd announced a change in the director’s interest, with Usha Rao-Monari acquiring 316 ordinary securities through an on-market trade, increasing her total holdings to 585. This change reflects an investment in the company, potentially signaling confidence in its future performance and stability, which could impact stakeholder perceptions positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Buy with a A$19.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Group Director Increases Shareholding
Sep 2, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd announced a change in the director’s interest, with Dr. Larry Marshall acquiring 5,418 ordinary shares through an on-market trade, increasing his total holdings to 22,156 shares. This change reflects the director’s growing investment in the company, which may signal confidence in Fortescue’s future performance and stability, potentially impacting stakeholders’ perceptions positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Buy with a A$19.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Group Announces Director’s Increased Shareholding
Sep 2, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically concerning Mark Barnaba. The notice details an acquisition of 316 ordinary shares through an on-market trade, increasing his direct holdings to 907 shares. This change reflects the director’s increased investment in the company, potentially signaling confidence in Fortescue’s future performance and stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Buy with a A$19.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Group: FY25 Earnings and Green Initiatives
Aug 26, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd, a leading player in the mining sector, is renowned for its iron ore production and commitment to decarbonization, with operations primarily based in the Pilbara region of Western Australia.

Fortescue Metals Group Announces AUD 0.60 Dividend Distribution
Aug 25, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has announced a dividend distribution of AUD 0.60 per fully paid ordinary share, with the ex-date set for September 1, 2025, and the payment date on September 26, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to shareholders and may influence investor sentiment positively, reinforcing Fortescue’s stable financial performance and strategic positioning in the mining sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Buy with a A$19.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Group Announces Dividend Reinvestment Plan Amidst Declining Profits
Aug 25, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has announced its Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP), allowing eligible shareholders to reinvest dividends into ordinary shares without a discount, with shares to be allocated on 26 September 2025. The company’s financial results for the year ended 30 June 2025 show a 15% decrease in revenue and a 41% drop in net profit after tax, reflecting a challenging market environment and impacting shareholder returns, as evidenced by a reduction in total dividends compared to the previous year.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Buy with a A$19.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Group Releases 2025 Corporate Governance Statement
Aug 25, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has released its Corporate Governance Statement for the financial year ending June 30, 2025, which is available both in its annual report and on its website. The statement outlines the company’s adherence to the ASX Corporate Governance Council’s principles and recommendations, highlighting its commitment to transparency and accountability. This release is significant as it underscores Fortescue’s dedication to maintaining robust governance practices, which is crucial for its reputation and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Buy with a A$19.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Secures Landmark RMB 14.2 Billion Syndicated Loan
Aug 7, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has secured a landmark RMB 14.2 billion syndicated term loan, marking the first Renminbi-denominated syndicated term loan by an Australian corporate. This transaction underscores Fortescue’s strategic partnerships with Chinese institutions and supports its decarbonisation agenda, highlighting its role in advancing green technology. The loan enhances Fortescue’s financial flexibility, diversifies its funding sources, and lowers its cost of capital, reinforcing its position as a responsible capital manager.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Hold with a A$17.45 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 22, 2025