Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $58.19B
• Dividend Yield: 5.83%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.78M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.46
• Revenue Growth: -13.65%
• EPS Growth: -39.85%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 15,642
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 1.49
• Shares Outstanding: 3,078,964,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,224,279
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,778,698
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.84
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.98
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.79
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.92
• 1Y Price Target: $17.95
• Price Target Upside: -4.91% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$20.50 ▲(8.58% Upside)

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd scores well due to its strong financial stability and attractive valuation. The positive technical indicators further support the stock's potential, although recent declines in revenue and cash flow growth present challenges. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events does not impact the score significantly.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG) is a leading global iron ore producer based in Australia. The company operates in the mining sector, focusing primarily on the extraction and sale of iron ore. FMG owns and operates integrated mining operations, including a mine-to-market infrastructure, which encompasses exploration, development, production, and processing. The company's core products are high-grade iron ore, which are supplied to customers worldwide, mainly in Asia.

How the Company Makes Money

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd generates revenue primarily through the mining, production, and export of iron ore. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of iron ore to major international markets, particularly China, which is the largest consumer of iron ore globally. FMG's operations are bolstered by its extensive supply chain infrastructure, which includes a fleet of ships for maritime transportation and a rail network connecting its mines to port facilities. The company benefits from economies of scale and cost-effective production methods, contributing to its profitability. Strategic partnerships and long-term contracts with major steel producers further enhance FMG's market position and revenue stability.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd demonstrates strong financial stability with a solid balance sheet and efficient operations. However, recent declines in revenue and profitability, coupled with negative cash flow growth, suggest challenges in maintaining growth momentum. The company remains well-positioned in terms of financial leverage and capital structure, but needs to address revenue and cash flow pressures to sustain long-term growth.

Income Statement

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has shown a decline in revenue and profitability in the latest year, with a negative revenue growth rate of -5.67% and a decrease in net profit margin from 31.38% to 21.88%. However, the company maintains a strong gross profit margin of 56.73% and an EBIT margin of 32.49%, indicating efficient cost management despite revenue pressures.

Balance Sheet

The company exhibits a solid balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.27, reflecting prudent financial leverage. The equity ratio stands at 65.48%, showcasing a strong capital structure. Return on equity is robust at 16.88%, although it has decreased from previous years, indicating a slight decline in profitability.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains strong at $6.47 billion, though it has decreased from the prior year. The free cash flow growth rate is negative at -2.68%, suggesting challenges in generating cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.92, indicating good cash conversion, but the free cash flow to net income ratio has declined to 0.96, highlighting potential cash flow constraints.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	16.35B	15.42B	18.11B	16.66B	17.31B	22.43B
Gross Profit	7.17B	8.75B	11.53B	8.74B	9.74B	15.51B
EBITDA	8.22B	7.56B	10.52B	8.68B	10.40B	16.18B
Net Income	3.90B	3.37B	5.68B	4.80B	6.20B	10.29B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	29.22B	30.52B	30.06B	28.94B	29.09B	29.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.41B	4.33B	4.90B	4.28B	5.22B	6.93B
Total Debt	5.44B	5.44B	5.40B	5.31B	6.10B	4.25B
Total Liabilities	10.03B	10.56B	10.53B	10.98B	11.75B	11.36B
Stockholders Equity	19.22B	19.98B	19.55B	17.95B	17.33B	17.73B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.33B	3.24B	5.08B	4.44B	3.62B	9.17B
Operating Cash Flow	6.18B	6.47B	7.92B	7.31B	6.27B	12.58B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.06B	-3.92B	-2.81B	-3.08B	-2.91B	-3.69B
Financing Cash Flow	-4.40B	-3.19B	-4.46B	-4.91B	-4.81B	-6.80B

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 18.88
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:FMG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.78, above the 50-day MA of 18.14, and above the 200-day MA of 16.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:FMG.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FMG	75 Outperform	$58.19B	11.16	17.06%	5.83%	-13.65%	-39.85%
ILU	71 Outperform	2.69B	13.90	9.80%	0.96%	-4.84%	-30.61%
S32	60 Neutral	11.81B	29.44	2.41%	3.54%	6.53%	0.00%
MIN	58 Neutral	7.54B	-8.31	0.00%	―	-15.27%	-817.26%
PLS	57 Neutral	7.28B	-35.70	-5.54%	―	-38.69%	-174.12%
IGO	47 Neutral	3.63B	-3.80	-45.62%	5.53%	-37.23%	-32433.33%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Corporate Events

Fortescue Metals Achieves Record Shipments and Advances Green Initiatives

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd reported record full-year iron ore shipments of 198.4 million tonnes for FY25, a 4% increase from the previous year, contributing to strong cash flow and a cash balance of $4.3 billion. The company achieved a decline in Hematite C1 costs for the first time since FY20 and is focused on ramping up production at Iron Bridge, advancing decarbonization efforts, and maintaining its position as the industry’s lowest-cost producer. Fortescue’s commitment to green energy and operational excellence is underscored by its strategic decisions to refine its project pipeline and focus on commercial outcomes, while also being recognized for equal opportunity and decarbonization leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Hold with a A$17.45 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Group Announces Cessation of Certain Securities

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd announced the cessation of certain securities, specifically performance rights and SIP vested rights, due to unmet conditions and other reasons. This cessation reflects adjustments in the company’s capital management strategy, potentially impacting stakeholders and market perceptions of the company’s operational focus.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Hold with a A$17.45 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Group Announces Issuance of Unquoted Equity Securities

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has announced the issuance, conversion, or payment up of unquoted equity securities. This move indicates a strategic financial maneuver that could impact the company’s capital structure and potentially influence its market positioning. The announcement may have implications for stakeholders, reflecting Fortescue’s ongoing efforts to manage its equity and financial resources effectively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Hold with a A$17.45 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Group Issues Unquoted Equity Securities for Employee Incentives

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities as part of their employee incentive scheme. This move involves the allocation of performance rights and vested rights, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, reflecting the company’s strategy to incentivize and retain talent within its workforce.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Hold with a A$17.45 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Appoints New Director with No Initial Securities Interest

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has announced the appointment of Yasmin Broughton as a director, effective from July 1, 2025. The notice indicates that Yasmin Broughton does not hold any relevant interests in securities, either as a registered holder or through contracts, at the time of her appointment. This appointment is part of the company’s compliance with ASX listing rules and the Corporations Act, ensuring transparency and adherence to governance standards.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Hold with a A$17.45 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Appoints Yasmin Broughton as Non-Executive Director

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has announced the appointment of Ms. Yasmin Broughton as a Non-Executive Director, effective July 1, 2025. Ms. Broughton brings over 25 years of experience in the mining and energy sectors, with expertise in law, mergers and acquisitions, and corporate governance. Her appointment is expected to enhance Fortescue’s strategic direction towards decarbonization and growth in green technology, energy, and metals, aligning with the company’s mission to become a leader in these areas.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Hold with a A$17.45 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Group Announces Leadership Restructuring for Green Future

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has announced a strategic leadership restructuring to enhance its focus on global electrification, decarbonization, and green energy development. Dino Otranto will expand his role to oversee operations related to electrification and hydrogen product production, while Agustin Pichot will become the CEO of Growth and Energy, leading the company’s green energy projects. The announcement also includes the retirement of key executives, Mark Hutchinson and Shelley Robertson, highlighting a shift towards a greener and more innovative future for Fortescue.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Hold with a A$17.45 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Group Updates on Iron Bridge Magnetite Operation

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has announced an update on its Iron Bridge magnetite operation, highlighting a staged ramp-up in production. The company anticipates shipments of 10-12 million tonnes in FY26, with a target to reach an annualized production rate of 16-20 million tonnes in the second half of FY27. The nameplate capacity of 22 million tonnes per annum is expected to be achieved by FY28. The operation is on track to meet its FY25 market guidance for shipments and operating costs. Fortescue is focusing on optimizing its operations through innovative solutions and operational learnings, which have already led to improvements in ore processing and production rates. The Iron Bridge project is a joint venture between FMG Magnetite Pty Ltd and Formosa Steel IB Pty Ltd.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Hold with a A$17.45 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Group Addresses Late Lodgement of Director’s Interest Notice

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has announced a late lodgement of an Appendix 3Y, which is a Change in Director’s Interest Notice for Lord Sebastian Coe. The delay was attributed to an administrative oversight, which the company considers an isolated incident. Fortescue assures stakeholders that it maintains robust corporate governance policies to ensure compliance with ASX Listing Rules.