Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (AU:FMG)
ASX:FMG
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Fortescue Metals Group Ltd
(Sydney:FMG)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
AU$26.00
▲(29.68% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:10/22/25
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd scores well due to strong technical indicators and a solid financial foundation. The stock's bullish momentum and attractive dividend yield enhance its appeal. However, challenges in revenue and cash flow growth slightly temper the overall score.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
A low debt-to-equity ratio and high equity ratio give Fortescue financial flexibility to fund capex, weather iron-ore cyclicality and pursue strategic projects without immediate refinancing pressure. A ~17% ROE shows historically efficient capital deployment supporting durable returns.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue trend
Significant negative revenue growth suggests weakening sales volumes or realized pricing, which can erode scale advantages and pressure margins if sustained. A continued revenue decline would constrain reinvestment capacity and make maintaining dividend and growth plans harder over the coming months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength
A low debt-to-equity ratio and high equity ratio give Fortescue financial flexibility to fund capex, weather iron-ore cyclicality and pursue strategic projects without immediate refinancing pressure. A ~17% ROE shows historically efficient capital deployment supporting durable returns.
Read all positive factors
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$61.70B
Dividend Yield4.96%
Average Volume (3M)7.08M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.8
Beta (1Y)1.24
Revenue Growth-13.65%
EPS Growth-39.85%
CountryAU
Employees15,642
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.89
Shares Outstanding3,078,964,800
10 Day Avg. Volume7,903,180
30 Day Avg. Volume7,078,448
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.23
Price to Book (P/B)1.55
Price to Sales (P/S)2.00
P/FCF Ratio9.55
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$20.18Price Target Upside0.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)1.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$16.39B
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Fortescue Metals Group Limited engages in the exploration, development, production, processing, and sale of iron ore in Australia, China, and internationally. It also explores for copper and gold deposits. The company owns and operates the Chiches...
How the Company Makes Money
Fortescue Metals Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of iron ore to global markets, especially in Asia. The company's revenue model is based on the extraction and sale of iron ore, which is a critical raw material for steel producti...
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.79B | 15.42B | 18.11B | 16.66B | 17.31B | 22.43B |
| Gross Profit | 6.62B | 8.75B | 11.53B | 8.74B | 9.74B | 15.51B |
| EBITDA | 8.77B | 7.56B | 10.52B | 8.68B | 10.40B | 16.18B |
| Net Income | 3.84B | 3.37B | 5.68B | 4.80B | 6.20B | 10.29B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 31.37B | 30.52B | 30.06B | 28.94B | 29.09B | 29.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.75B | 4.33B | 4.90B | 4.28B | 5.22B | 6.93B |
| Total Debt | 6.22B | 5.44B | 5.40B | 5.31B | 6.10B | 4.25B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.65B | 10.56B | 10.53B | 10.98B | 11.75B | 11.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 20.75B | 19.98B | 19.55B | 17.95B | 17.33B | 17.73B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.03B | 3.24B | 5.08B | 4.44B | 3.62B | 9.17B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.26B | 6.47B | 7.92B | 7.31B | 6.27B | 12.58B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.84B | -3.92B | -2.81B | -3.08B | -2.91B | -3.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.19B | -3.19B | -4.46B | -4.91B | -4.81B | -6.80B |
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Technical Analysis
Positive
20.05
Price Trends
20.32
Negative
20.63
Negative
19.03
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.19
Negative
52.46
Neutral
45.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:FMG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.65, below the 50-day MA of 20.32, and above the 200-day MA of 19.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:FMG.
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | AU$61.70B | 5.80 | 18.83% | 4.96% | -13.65% | -39.85% | |
63 Neutral | AU$18.39B | 5.91 | 3.36% | 2.67% | 6.53% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
54 Neutral | AU$11.15B | 5.40 | 11.50% | ― | -15.27% | -817.26% | |
49 Neutral | AU$2.77B | -8.61 | -12.75% | 1.04% | -4.84% | -30.61% | |
45 Neutral | AU$15.85B | 103.52 | -2.64% | ― | -38.69% | -174.12% | |
45 Neutral | AU$5.92B | -45.43 | -35.65% | ― | -37.23% | -32433.33% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:FMG
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd
20.05
4.81
31.52%
AU:S32
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4.08
0.75
22.45%
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4.97
3.12
168.65%
AU:ILU
Iluka Resources Limited
6.44
2.29
55.29%
AU:IGO
IGO
7.83
3.65
87.32%
AU:MIN
Mineral Resources Limited
56.85
32.09
129.60%
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Corporate Events
Fortescue Delivers Record First-Half Shipments and Advances Decarbonisation and Copper Push
Jan 21, 2026
Fortescue posted record first-half iron ore shipments of 100.2 million tonnes in the six months to 31 December 2025, up 3% year on year, supported by 50.5 million tonnes shipped in the December quarter and rising volumes from its Iron Bridge proje...
Fortescue Issues 272,520 Unquoted Performance Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Jan 12, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has notified the market of the issue of 272,520 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, with an issue date of 17 December 2025. The new securities, which will not be quoted on the ASX, reflect the companyR...
Fortescue Updates Market on Conversion of Unquoted Equity Securities
Jan 12, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has notified the market of the issue or conversion of unquoted equity securities, specifically unquoted options that have been exercised or other unquoted convertible securities that have been converted into shares. The move, outline...
Fortescue Announces Lapse of 1,309 Performance Rights
Jan 12, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has notified the market that 1,309 performance rights (ASX code: FMGAK) have lapsed after the conditions attached to those rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied as of 23 December 2025. The cessation of these secu...
Fortescue to Acquire Remaining Stake in Alta Copper
Dec 14, 2025
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has announced its intention to acquire the remaining 64% of Alta Copper Corp’s shares, valuing the company at C$139 million. This acquisition aligns with Fortescue’s strategy to expand its copper portfolio an...
Fortescue Metals Announces Cessation of Securities
Dec 10, 2025
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd announced the cessation of certain securities, including 42,967 performance rights and 685 vested rights, due to unmet conditions and other reasons. This announcement may impact the company’s capital structure and ...
Fortescue Metals Group Issues Unquoted Equity Securities for Employee Incentive
Dec 10, 2025
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities, including 8,078,505 performance rights and 233,412 SIP vested rights, as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move is likely aimed at enhancing employee engagem...
Fortescue Reinforces Commitment to Combat Modern Slavery with FY25 Statement
Dec 10, 2025
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has released its FY25 Modern Slavery Statement, highlighting its ongoing efforts to combat modern slavery and enhance human rights practices across its operations and supply chain. The statement, which complies with both...
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Highlights Growth and Sustainability at AGM
Oct 31, 2025
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd held its Annual General Meeting where key executives, including Executive Chairman Dr. Andrew Forrest and CEOs Dino Otranto and Gus Pichot, addressed shareholders. The meeting, which was webcast, highlighted Fortescue...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.