Want to see AU:FMG full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd
(Sydney:FMG)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
AU$25.00
▲(34.63% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/22/25
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd scores well due to strong technical indicators and a solid financial foundation. The stock's bullish momentum and attractive dividend yield enhance its appeal. However, challenges in revenue and cash flow growth slightly temper the overall score.
Positive Factors
Integrated Pilbara mine-rail-port network
Owning integrated mine, rail and port infrastructure creates durable scale and control over logistics and throughput. This vertical integration reduces third-party bottlenecks, supports reliable export volumes to steelmakers, and raises barriers to entry for competitors over the next several years.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue and profit margins
A multiyear decline in revenue and a material drop in net margin reduce earnings resilience and limit reinvestment capacity. Persistent top-line contraction and margin pressure can constrain long-term free cash flow and the firm's ability to fund expansion or weather prolonged commodity downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated Pilbara mine-rail-port network
Owning integrated mine, rail and port infrastructure creates durable scale and control over logistics and throughput. This vertical integration reduces third-party bottlenecks, supports reliable export volumes to steelmakers, and raises barriers to entry for competitors over the next several years.
Read all positive factors
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$56.96B
Dividend Yield6.6%
Average Volume (3M)7.08M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.5
Beta (1Y)1.10
Revenue Growth2.22%
EPS Growth-2.10%
CountryAU
Employees15,745
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.24
Shares Outstanding3,078,964,800
10 Day Avg. Volume7,903,180
30 Day Avg. Volume7,078,448
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.23
Price to Book (P/B)1.55
Price to Sales (P/S)2.00
P/FCF Ratio9.55
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$18.09Price Target Upside-2.58% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.92
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$15.55B
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Fortescue Ltd engages in the exploration, development, production, processing, and sale of iron ore in Australia, China, and internationally. The company explores for copper and lithium deposits; and rare earth elements. It owns and operates rail ...
How the Company Makes Money
FMG primarily makes money by producing and selling iron ore (and related iron ore products) to customers, with the majority of revenue driven by seaborne exports from Western Australia to international steel producers and traders. The revenue mode...
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.79B | 15.42B | 18.11B | 16.66B | 17.31B | 22.43B |
| Gross Profit | 6.62B | 8.75B | 11.53B | 8.74B | 9.74B | 15.51B |
| EBITDA | 8.77B | 7.56B | 10.52B | 8.68B | 10.40B | 16.18B |
| Net Income | 3.84B | 3.37B | 5.68B | 4.80B | 6.20B | 10.29B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 31.37B | 30.52B | 30.06B | 28.94B | 29.09B | 29.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.75B | 4.33B | 4.90B | 4.28B | 5.22B | 6.93B |
| Total Debt | 6.22B | 5.44B | 5.40B | 5.31B | 6.10B | 4.25B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.65B | 10.56B | 10.53B | 10.98B | 11.75B | 11.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 20.75B | 19.98B | 19.55B | 17.95B | 17.33B | 17.73B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.03B | 3.24B | 5.08B | 4.44B | 3.62B | 9.17B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.26B | 6.47B | 7.92B | 7.31B | 6.27B | 12.58B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.84B | -3.92B | -2.81B | -3.08B | -2.91B | -3.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.19B | -3.19B | -4.46B | -4.91B | -4.81B | -6.80B |
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Technical Analysis
Negative
18.57
Price Trends
19.34
Negative
20.07
Negative
20.37
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.29
Positive
39.97
Neutral
36.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:FMG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.57 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.61, below the 50-day MA of 19.34, and below the 200-day MA of 20.37, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:FMG.
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | AU$56.96B | 10.49 | 18.83% | 6.58% | 2.22% | -2.10% | |
69 Neutral | AU$162.03M | 3.47 | 4.27% | ― | -8.25% | -20.36% | |
69 Neutral | AU$520.95M | 12.33 | 7.47% | 4.79% | -0.46% | -0.92% | |
63 Neutral | AU$20.45B | 47.71 | 3.36% | 2.67% | 2.25% | 97.21% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
55 Neutral | AU$11.43B | 28.42 | 11.50% | ― | 3.58% | ― | |
52 Neutral | AU$1.26B | -16.73 | -9.67% | ― | ― | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:FMG
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd
18.02
-0.24
-1.34%
AU:S32
South32
4.96
2.01
68.25%
AU:BCI
BCI Minerals Ltd
0.44
0.10
27.54%
AU:GRR
Grange Resources Limited
0.14
-0.07
-32.50%
AU:JMS
Jupiter Mines Limited
0.27
0.06
27.40%
AU:MIN
Mineral Resources Limited
64.17
26.05
68.34%
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Corporate Events
Fortescue Reports Lapse of 41,101 Performance Rights
Jul 14, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has notified the market of a cessation of certain securities, specifically the lapse of 41,101 performance rights identified as FMGAK. These rights have ceased because the conditions attached to them were not met, or became incapable...
Fortescue Discloses Conversion of Unquoted Equity Securities
Jul 14, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has notified the market of the issue and conversion of unquoted equity securities, specifically options or other convertible instruments that have been exercised. The move reflects changes in the company’s capital structure and...
Fortescue Issues New Unquoted Performance Rights Under Incentive Scheme
Jul 14, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has notified the market of the issue of 11,690 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, effective 16 April 2026. The new securities, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, reinforce Fortescue’s ...
Fortescue Faces Class Action Over Workplace Harassment Claims
Jul 6, 2026
Fortescue has disclosed that it has been served with a class action filed in the Federal Court of Australia, alleging sexual harassment and sex discrimination at its Australian workplaces. The claim covers current and former women employed between...
Fortescue Discloses Final Director Interest as Elizabeth Gaines Departs Board
Jul 2, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has announced the cessation of Elizabeth Gaines as a director effective 30 June 2026, formalising the end of her board tenure. A regulatory filing shows that upon her departure she held 66,294 ordinary shares in the company, with no ...
Fortescue Reshapes Board as Elizabeth Gaines Departs and Sigrid Kaag Joins
May 24, 2026
Fortescue has announced that long-serving executive Elizabeth Gaines will resign as Executive Director effective 30 June 2026, ending more than 13 years with the group, during which she served as CFO and later CEO and Managing Director. The compan...
State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Fortescue
May 22, 2026
State Street Corporation and a group of its global asset management and banking subsidiaries have lodged a notice that they have ceased to be substantial shareholders in Fortescue Ltd. The change reflects an adjustment in State Street’s aggr...
Fortescue ordered to pay A$150m cultural loss in Yindjibarndi native title case
May 12, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has been found liable by the Federal Court in a native title compensation claim brought by the Yindjibarndi Ngurra Aboriginal Corporation RNTBC, stemming from activities on traditional lands. The court determined that Fortescue must ...
Fortescue Director Elizabeth Gaines Sells Shares but Retains Stake Above Policy Minimum
May 7, 2026
Fortescue director Elizabeth Gaines has significantly reduced her direct holding in the company, selling 275,000 ordinary shares on market on 4 May 2026 for proceeds of about $5.49 million. Following the transaction, her remaining stake stands at ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.