Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (AU:FMG)
ASX:FMG
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Fortescue Metals Group Ltd
(Sydney:FMG)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
AU$25.00
â–˛(17.76% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/22/25
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd scores well due to strong technical indicators and a solid financial foundation. The stock's bullish momentum and attractive dividend yield enhance its appeal. However, challenges in revenue and cash flow growth slightly temper the overall score.
Positive Factors
Prudent Balance Sheet
The company’s low leverage and strong equity ratio provide durable financial flexibility to fund sustaining capex, withstand commodity cycles and maintain capital returns. A robust ROE signals historically efficient capital use, supporting resilience across downturns and multi‑year planning.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue & Profitability
A contracting top line and margin compression point to structural headwinds from weaker prices or volumes. Persistent revenue declines can erode operating leverage, limit reinvestment capacity and pressure long-term earnings power if not reversed by volume or cost improvements.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Prudent Balance Sheet
The company’s low leverage and strong equity ratio provide durable financial flexibility to fund sustaining capex, withstand commodity cycles and maintain capital returns. A robust ROE signals historically efficient capital use, supporting resilience across downturns and multi‑year planning.
Read all positive factors
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$68.65B
Dividend Yield4.96%
Average Volume (3M)7.08M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.9
Beta (1Y)1.13
Revenue Growth2.22%
EPS Growth-2.10%
CountryAU
Employees15,642
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.24
Shares Outstanding3,078,964,800
10 Day Avg. Volume7,903,180
30 Day Avg. Volume7,078,448
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.23
Price to Book (P/B)1.55
Price to Sales (P/S)2.00
P/FCF Ratio9.55
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$19.30Price Target Upside-9.09% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)1.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$16.76B
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Fortescue Metals Group Limited engages in the exploration, development, production, processing, and sale of iron ore in Australia, China, and internationally. It also explores for copper and gold deposits. The company owns and operates the Chiches...
How the Company Makes Money
FMG primarily makes money by producing and selling iron ore (and related iron ore products) to customers, with the majority of revenue driven by seaborne exports from Western Australia to international steel producers and traders. The revenue mode...
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.79B | 15.42B | 18.11B | 16.66B | 17.31B | 22.43B |
| Gross Profit | 6.62B | 8.75B | 11.53B | 8.74B | 9.74B | 15.51B |
| EBITDA | 8.77B | 7.56B | 10.52B | 8.68B | 10.40B | 16.18B |
| Net Income | 3.84B | 3.37B | 5.68B | 4.80B | 6.20B | 10.29B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 31.37B | 30.52B | 30.06B | 28.94B | 29.09B | 29.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.75B | 4.33B | 4.90B | 4.28B | 5.22B | 6.93B |
| Total Debt | 6.22B | 5.44B | 5.40B | 5.31B | 6.10B | 4.25B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.65B | 10.56B | 10.53B | 10.98B | 11.75B | 11.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 20.75B | 19.98B | 19.55B | 17.95B | 17.33B | 17.73B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.03B | 3.24B | 5.08B | 4.44B | 3.62B | 9.17B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.26B | 6.47B | 7.92B | 7.31B | 6.27B | 12.58B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.84B | -3.92B | -2.81B | -3.08B | -2.91B | -3.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.19B | -3.19B | -4.46B | -4.91B | -4.81B | -6.80B |
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Technical Analysis
Positive
21.23
Price Trends
20.86
Positive
20.72
Positive
20.18
Positive
Market Momentum
0.36
Positive
60.23
Neutral
61.42
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:FMG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.23 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.67, above the 50-day MA of 20.86, and above the 200-day MA of 20.18, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:FMG.
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | AU$68.65B | 12.86 | 18.83% | 4.96% | 2.22% | -2.10% | |
72 Outperform | AU$520.95M | 18.73 | 4.91% | 5.45% | -0.46% | -0.92% | |
63 Neutral | AU$21.52B | 51.05 | 3.36% | 2.67% | 2.25% | 97.21% | |
63 Neutral | AU$185.17M | 3.97 | 4.27% | ― | -8.25% | -20.36% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
55 Neutral | AU$14.41B | 36.09 | 11.50% | ― | 3.58% | ― | |
46 Neutral | AU$1.03B | -13.82 | -9.67% | ― | ― | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:FMG
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd
22.31
8.20
58.15%
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4.81
1.99
70.39%
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0.35
0.07
22.81%
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0.16
-0.02
-13.51%
AU:JMS
Jupiter Mines Limited
0.27
0.06
30.54%
AU:MIN
Mineral Resources Limited
73.47
53.89
275.23%
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Corporate Events
Fortescue Reshapes Board as Elizabeth Gaines Departs and Sigrid Kaag Joins
May 24, 2026
Fortescue has announced that long-serving executive Elizabeth Gaines will resign as Executive Director effective 30 June 2026, ending more than 13 years with the group, during which she served as CFO and later CEO and Managing Director. The compan...
State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Fortescue
May 22, 2026
State Street Corporation and a group of its global asset management and banking subsidiaries have lodged a notice that they have ceased to be substantial shareholders in Fortescue Ltd. The change reflects an adjustment in State Street’s aggr...
Fortescue ordered to pay A$150m cultural loss in Yindjibarndi native title case
May 12, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has been found liable by the Federal Court in a native title compensation claim brought by the Yindjibarndi Ngurra Aboriginal Corporation RNTBC, stemming from activities on traditional lands. The court determined that Fortescue must ...
Fortescue Director Elizabeth Gaines Sells Shares but Retains Stake Above Policy Minimum
May 7, 2026
Fortescue director Elizabeth Gaines has significantly reduced her direct holding in the company, selling 275,000 ordinary shares on market on 4 May 2026 for proceeds of about $5.49 million. Following the transaction, her remaining stake stands at ...
Fortescue commits US$680m to expand Pilbara green energy grid
Apr 23, 2026
Fortescue has approved a US$680 million investment to build the 200MW Pilbara Green Energy Project, an off-grid renewable energy and large-scale battery system in Western Australia that will exceed the power needs of its Real Zero by 2030 strategy...
Fortescue Issues New Tranche of Unquoted Performance Rights Under Staff Incentive Plan
Apr 14, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has notified the market of the issue of 76,820 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme. The securities, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, were issued on 5 February 2026 and reflect the company...
Fortescue Flags Conversion of Unquoted Equity Securities
Apr 14, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has notified the market of the issue, conversion, or payment up of certain unquoted equity securities, including exercised unquoted options or other convertible instruments. The move reflects ongoing changes in the company’s ca...
Fortescue Confirms Lapse of 79,471 Unvested Performance Rights
Apr 14, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has notified the market that 79,471 performance rights, trading under the ASX code FMGAK, have lapsed after the relevant conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied as of 31 March 2026. The cessation of these condi...
Fortescue Fast-Tracks Industrial Green Grid to Cut Diesel and Costs
Apr 9, 2026
Fortescue is accelerating the rollout of what it calls the world’s first large-scale, fully integrated green energy grid dedicated to heavy industry, aiming to eliminate diesel and other fossil fuels from its Pilbara mining operations. The c...
Fortescue Director Boosts Shareholding via Dividend Reinvestment Plan
Apr 1, 2026
Fortescue director Dr Larry Marshall has increased his direct holding in the company through participation in its dividend reinvestment plan. On 30 March 2026, Marshall acquired 895 ordinary shares for a total consideration of $17,230.36, lifting ...
Fortescue director Mark Barnaba lifts stake via dividend reinvestment
Apr 1, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has disclosed a change in the equity holdings of non-executive director Mark Barnaba following participation in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan. Barnaba increased his direct holding by 19 ordinary shares and his indire...
Fortescue Updates Dividend Reinvestment Plan Allocation Price for Interim Payout
Mar 12, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has updated its previously announced dividend details for holders of its ordinary fully paid shares, confirming the adjustment relates to the Dividend Reinvestment Plan allocation price. The distribution covers the six‑month pe...
Fortescue Sets Dividend Reinvestment Plan Price at A$19.25 a Share
Mar 12, 2026
Fortescue has confirmed the allocation price for shares to be issued under its Dividend Reinvestment Plan tied to the recently declared fully franked interim dividend of A$0.62 per share. The plan price has been set at A$19.2518 per share, based o...
Fortescue Director Mark Barnaba Boosts Direct Shareholding
Mar 4, 2026
Fortescue director Mark Barnaba has increased his direct shareholding in the company through an on-market trade, purchasing 288 ordinary shares for a total consideration of $5,998.77. Following the transaction, Barnaba now holds 1,205 Fortescue sh...
Fortescue Director Usha Rao-Monari Increases Personal Shareholding
Mar 4, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has disclosed a change in the interests of director Usha Rao-Monari, who increased her direct holding in the company through an on-market trade. On 26 February 2026, Rao-Monari purchased 287 ordinary shares for a total consideration ...
Fortescue director Larry Marshall lifts direct shareholding via on‑market trade
Mar 4, 2026
Fortescue Ltd has disclosed a change in the holdings of director Dr Larry Marshall, in line with Australian Securities Exchange requirements for director interest notifications. The filing details an on‑market purchase of additional ordinary...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.