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Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (AU:FMG)
ASX:FMG

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:FMG

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd

(Sydney:FMG)

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Outperform 76 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
AU$23.00
▲(1.10% Upside)
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd scores well due to strong technical indicators and a solid financial foundation. The stock's bullish momentum and attractive dividend yield enhance its appeal. However, challenges in revenue and cash flow growth slightly temper the overall score.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Health
A low debt-to-equity ratio indicates prudent financial management, providing the company with financial stability and flexibility to invest in growth opportunities.
Operational Efficiency
High profit margins reflect efficient cost management, which can sustain profitability even in challenging market conditions, supporting long-term business viability.
Cash Conversion
A strong cash conversion ratio indicates effective operations, ensuring the company can meet its obligations and reinvest in its business, supporting sustainable growth.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline
Declining revenue growth suggests challenges in market demand or competitive pressures, potentially impacting long-term growth prospects and market position.
Profitability Decline
A declining net profit margin indicates reduced profitability, which may hinder the company's ability to invest in future growth and maintain competitive advantages.
Negative Cash Flow Growth
Negative cash flow growth can limit the company's ability to fund operations and strategic initiatives, potentially affecting its long-term financial health and expansion capabilities.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFortescue Metals Group Limited engages in the exploration, development, production, processing, and sale of iron ore in Australia, China, and internationally. It also explores for copper and gold deposits. The company owns and operates the Chichester Hub that includes the Cloudbreak and Christmas Creek mines located in the Chichester ranges; and the Solomon Hub comprising the Firetail, Kings Valley, and Queens Valley mines located in the Hamersley ranges of Pilbara, Western Australia. It is also developing the Eliwana mine situated in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. In addition, the company holds a portfolio of properties situated in Ecuador, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, Chile, and Brazil, as well as Portugal and Kazakhstan. Further, it provides port towage services. Fortescue Metals Group Limited was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in East Perth, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyFortescue Metals Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of iron ore to global markets, especially in Asia. The company's revenue model is based on the extraction and sale of iron ore, which is a critical raw material for steel production. Key revenue streams include the direct sale of iron ore fines and lump ore, with pricing typically linked to global iron ore benchmarks. FMG has established long-term contracts and spot market sales, allowing for flexibility in pricing strategies. Additionally, the company has forged significant partnerships with various stakeholders in the mining and steel industries, enhancing its market reach and operational efficiency. Factors contributing to FMG's earnings include the global demand for steel, operational efficiency in mining and logistics, and strategic investments in technology and infrastructure to reduce costs and increase production capacity.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd demonstrates strong financial stability with a solid balance sheet and efficient operations. However, recent declines in revenue and profitability, coupled with negative cash flow growth, suggest challenges in maintaining growth momentum. The company remains well-positioned in terms of financial leverage and capital structure, but needs to address revenue and cash flow pressures to sustain long-term growth.
Income Statement
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has shown a decline in revenue and profitability in the latest year, with a negative revenue growth rate of -5.67% and a decrease in net profit margin from 31.38% to 21.88%. However, the company maintains a strong gross profit margin of 56.73% and an EBIT margin of 32.49%, indicating efficient cost management despite revenue pressures.
Balance Sheet
The company exhibits a solid balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.27, reflecting prudent financial leverage. The equity ratio stands at 65.48%, showcasing a strong capital structure. Return on equity is robust at 16.88%, although it has decreased from previous years, indicating a slight decline in profitability.
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow remains strong at $6.47 billion, though it has decreased from the prior year. The free cash flow growth rate is negative at -2.68%, suggesting challenges in generating cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.92, indicating good cash conversion, but the free cash flow to net income ratio has declined to 0.96, highlighting potential cash flow constraints.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue15.83B15.42B18.11B16.66B17.31B22.43B
Gross Profit6.31B8.75B11.53B8.74B9.74B15.51B
EBITDA7.96B7.56B10.52B8.68B10.40B16.18B
Net Income3.44B3.37B5.68B4.80B6.20B10.29B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets30.52B30.52B30.06B28.94B29.09B29.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments4.33B4.33B4.90B4.28B5.22B6.93B
Total Debt5.44B5.44B5.40B5.31B6.10B4.25B
Total Liabilities10.56B10.56B10.53B10.98B11.75B11.36B
Stockholders Equity19.98B19.98B19.55B17.95B17.33B17.73B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow3.20B3.24B5.08B4.44B3.62B9.17B
Operating Cash Flow6.46B6.47B7.92B7.31B6.27B12.58B
Investing Cash Flow-3.92B-3.92B-2.81B-3.08B-2.91B-3.69B
Financing Cash Flow-3.17B-3.19B-4.46B-4.91B-4.81B-6.80B

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price22.75
Price Trends
50DMA
21.41
Positive
100DMA
20.27
Positive
200DMA
18.02
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.32
Positive
RSI
61.13
Neutral
STOCH
83.78
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:FMG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.39, above the 50-day MA of 21.41, and above the 200-day MA of 18.02, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.78 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:FMG.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
AU$70.16B13.4317.06%4.96%-13.65%-39.85%
68
Neutral
AU$2.82B14.407.84%1.04%-4.84%-30.61%
64
Neutral
AU$17.18B42.813.64%2.67%6.53%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
59
Neutral
AU$15.56B-75.83-5.63%-38.69%-174.12%
58
Neutral
AU$11.23B-12.21-26.55%-15.27%-817.26%
49
Neutral
$6.64B-6.94-35.65%-37.23%-32433.33%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:FMG
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd
22.75
5.81
34.33%
AU:S32
South32
3.81
0.54
16.59%
AU:PLS
Pilbara Minerals
4.80
2.60
118.18%
AU:ILU
Iluka Resources Limited
6.38
1.07
20.08%
AU:IGO
IGO
8.75
3.78
76.06%
AU:MIN
Mineral Resources Limited
56.49
21.41
61.03%

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Corporate Events

Fortescue to Acquire Remaining Stake in Alta Copper
Dec 14, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has announced its intention to acquire the remaining 64% of Alta Copper Corp’s shares, valuing the company at C$139 million. This acquisition aligns with Fortescue’s strategy to expand its copper portfolio and strengthen its presence in the critical minerals sector. The transaction offers a significant premium to Alta Copper’s shareholders and is supported by Alta Copper’s board. The acquisition will enable Fortescue to advance the Cañariaco Copper Project in Northern Peru, enhancing its industry positioning and operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Hold with a A$20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Announces Cessation of Securities
Dec 10, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd announced the cessation of certain securities, including 42,967 performance rights and 685 vested rights, due to unmet conditions and other reasons. This announcement may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders regarding the company’s strategic financial management.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Sell with a A$19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Group Issues Unquoted Equity Securities for Employee Incentive
Dec 10, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities, including 8,078,505 performance rights and 233,412 SIP vested rights, as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move is likely aimed at enhancing employee engagement and retention, which could strengthen the company’s operational performance and competitive positioning in the mining sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Sell with a A$19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Reinforces Commitment to Combat Modern Slavery with FY25 Statement
Dec 10, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has released its FY25 Modern Slavery Statement, highlighting its ongoing efforts to combat modern slavery and enhance human rights practices across its operations and supply chain. The statement, which complies with both Australian and UK legislation, outlines key actions such as the launch of a new Sustainable Supply Chain Standard, enhanced due diligence procedures, and ethical recruitment initiatives. These efforts underscore Fortescue’s commitment to transparency and proactive measures in addressing modern slavery risks, particularly in high-risk areas like renewable technologies, ensuring that growth and the transition to green energy do not compromise human rights.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Sell with a A$19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd Highlights Growth and Sustainability at AGM
Oct 31, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd held its Annual General Meeting where key executives, including Executive Chairman Dr. Andrew Forrest and CEOs Dino Otranto and Gus Pichot, addressed shareholders. The meeting, which was webcast, highlighted Fortescue’s ongoing strategies and operations, underscoring its commitment to growth and sustainability in the mining and energy sectors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Hold with a A$19.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Achieves Record Q1 Shipments and Advances Decarbonization Efforts
Oct 22, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd reported a record first quarter for FY26 with iron ore shipments reaching 49.7 million tonnes, a 4% increase from the previous year. The company has made significant strides in its decarbonization efforts, including the successful syndication of a Renminbi-denominated loan and the establishment of global partnerships to drive profitable decarbonization. Additionally, Fortescue has optimized its Hematite life of mine plan, incorporating the Blacksmith Project to maintain a low-cost, capital-efficient operation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Buy with a A$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Upsizes Cash Tender Offers Amid Strong Demand
Oct 21, 2025

Fortescue Ltd announced the early results of its cash tender offers, increasing the total amount from US$600 million to US$750 million due to strong participation. The company upsized the tender cap for its 4.375% Senior Notes due 2031 to US$500 million and plans to purchase US$500 million of these notes and US$250 million of its 5.875% Senior Notes due 2030. This move reflects Fortescue’s strategic financial management and could enhance its liquidity position, potentially impacting its market standing positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Hold with a A$18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Announces Cessation of Securities
Oct 13, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd announced the cessation of certain securities, specifically the lapse of 9,318 performance rights and 9,339 vested rights. This development may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for its stakeholders, as it reflects adjustments in the company’s financial management and strategic planning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Hold with a A$18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Announces Equity Securities Update
Oct 13, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has announced the issuance, conversion, or payment up of unquoted equity securities, as detailed in their latest notification. This move indicates the company’s ongoing efforts to manage its equity structure effectively, which could impact its financial strategy and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Hold with a A$18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Ltd Launches US$600 Million Debt Repurchase Offer
Oct 6, 2025

Fortescue Ltd announced a tender offer to repurchase up to US$600 million of its outstanding notes, specifically targeting its 2030, 2031, and 2032 Senior Notes. This strategic move aims to manage the company’s debt profile and potentially improve its financial flexibility, with priority given to the 2031 Notes, followed by the 2030 and 2032 Notes, reflecting a structured approach to debt reduction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Hold with a A$17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Group Announces Director’s Interest Change
Oct 2, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd has announced a change in the director’s interest notice for Dr. Larry Marshall, who has increased his direct interest in the company’s ordinary securities. The change, effective from September 26, 2025, was made through the Dividend Reinvestment Plan, resulting in Dr. Marshall acquiring an additional 707 ordinary shares, bringing his total holdings to 22,863 shares. This adjustment reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to align its leadership’s interests with shareholder value, potentially enhancing stakeholder confidence in its governance and operational strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Sell with a A$16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Fortescue Metals Announces Director’s Interest Change
Oct 2, 2025

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd announced a change in the director’s interest notice, specifically for Director Mark Barnaba. The change involved the acquisition of additional securities through a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, increasing his direct and indirect holdings. This update reflects ongoing adjustments in the company’s governance and director’s investment strategies, potentially impacting shareholder perceptions and the company’s market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FMG) stock is a Sell with a A$16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fortescue Metals Group Ltd stock, see the AU:FMG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 22, 2025