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Pilbara Minerals Limited (AU:PLS)
ASX:PLS

Pilbara Minerals (PLS) AI Stock Analysis

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AU

Pilbara Minerals

(Sydney:PLS)

46Neutral
Pilbara Minerals Limited faces substantial challenges with declining revenue and negative cash flow, affecting its financial performance. Bearish technical indicators and a negative P/E ratio further highlight risks. While strategic projects and operational improvements offer future potential, current market volatility and cost issues pose significant near-term risks.

Pilbara Minerals (PLS) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Pilbara Minerals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPilbara Minerals Limited (PLS) is an Australian lithium-tantalum producer focused on the exploration, development, and production of mineral resources. Headquartered in Perth, Western Australia, Pilbara Minerals operates the Pilgangoora Lithium-Tantalum Project, which is one of the largest hard-rock lithium operations globally. The company's primary products include lithium concentrate, which is a crucial component for lithium-ion batteries, and tantalum concentrates, used in various electronic and industrial applications.
How the Company Makes MoneyPilbara Minerals Limited generates revenue primarily through the sale of lithium and tantalum concentrates. The company extracts and processes these minerals from its Pilgangoora Project, then sells the concentrates to various customers, including manufacturers of lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles, energy storage systems, and consumer electronics. Key revenue streams include long-term offtake agreements with major global battery manufacturers and chemical converters, ensuring a stable demand for its products. Pilbara Minerals also engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its production capabilities and market reach, contributing to its overall revenue growth.

Pilbara Minerals Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Pilbara Minerals Limited demonstrates strong profitability and balance sheet stability, indicated by a positive net profit margin and low debt-to-equity ratio. However, the sharp decline in revenue and negative cash flow in 2024 highlight significant challenges that could affect financial resilience.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Pilbara Minerals Limited has shown a volatile revenue trend with significant fluctuations over the years. The recent decline in total revenue from $4.06 billion in 2023 to $1.25 billion in 2024 is concerning. Despite this, the company has maintained a positive gross profit margin of 38.1% in 2024. The net profit margin also remains positive at 20.5%, indicating profitability, but the sharp revenue drop poses a risk to stability.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company maintains a strong equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17, signaling low leverage risk. The equity ratio stands at 75.3%, reflecting financial stability and significant shareholder equity compared to total assets. However, the decrease in total assets from the previous year suggests a contraction that should be monitored.
Cash Flow
30
Negative
Pilbara Minerals Limited experienced a substantial decline in free cash flow, from $3.04 billion in 2023 to negative $1.25 billion in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow challenges despite reported profits. This raises concerns about cash flow sustainability and operational efficiency.
Breakdown
TTMJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
922.57M1.25B4.06B1.19B175.82M84.15M
Gross Profit
147.42M477.81M3.27B794.07M12.58M-35.56M
EBIT
-469.00K396.25M3.21B767.38M-5.68M-56.56M
EBITDA
98.43M593.86M3.51B783.52M21.28M-59.14M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-32.64M256.88M2.39B561.83M-51.45M-99.26M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.17B1.63B3.34B591.74M99.71M86.25M
Total Assets
4.18B4.31B5.20B1.98B949.72M602.46M
Total Debt
634.42M555.74M471.95M291.96M166.97M176.45M
Net Debt
-536.59M-1.07B-2.87B-299.77M67.25M90.20M
Total Liabilities
1.01B1.07B1.81B686.36M375.48M215.49M
Stockholders Equity
3.18B3.24B3.39B1.29B574.25M386.97M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-916.52M-1.25B3.04B506.40M-20.36M-64.22M
Operating Cash Flow
-80.98M-440.22M3.43B634.72M130.00K-41.60M
Investing Cash Flow
-774.22M-827.51M-407.96M-204.53M-230.79M-22.61M
Financing Cash Flow
-136.35M-392.74M-284.19M58.42M251.33M88.48M

Pilbara Minerals Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price1.40
Price Trends
50DMA
1.60
Negative
100DMA
1.90
Negative
200DMA
2.34
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.01
Negative
RSI
40.89
Neutral
STOCH
47.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:PLS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.50, below the 50-day MA of 1.60, and below the 200-day MA of 2.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:PLS.

Pilbara Minerals Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (50)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
AUIGO
62
Neutral
AU$3.13B1,418.92-36.53%6.46%-28.50%-532.61%
AUSYA
52
Neutral
$184.69M-17.81%87.89%-344.44%
AUMIN
51
Neutral
$5.15B50.78-33.95%4.54%2.22%-411.10%
50
Neutral
$1.98B-1.08-21.29%3.61%1.96%-30.59%
AULKE
48
Neutral
$59.95M-19.25%65.04%
AUPLS
46
Neutral
$5.02B23.42-1.04%-65.07%-102.37%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:PLS
Pilbara Minerals
1.41
-2.75
-66.14%
AU:MIN
Mineral Resources Limited
24.08
-55.16
-69.61%
AU:SYA
Sayona Mining
0.02
-0.03
-62.79%
AU:LKE
Lake Resources N.L.
0.03
-0.03
-51.52%
AU:IGO
IGO
4.18
-3.35
-44.47%

Pilbara Minerals Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -30.00%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 21, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a company in the midst of a strategic transition with strong operational performance, successful project milestones, and safety improvements. However, financial metrics reveal challenges with declining revenues and realized prices, as well as a negative cash margin in the December quarter. The company's focus on cost reduction and strategic growth options are positive, but the impact of market price volatility and increased unit costs present significant challenges.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
P850 Operating Model Implementation
During the December quarter, the P850 operating model was announced and implemented, expected to deliver a cash flow improvement of approximately $200 million in FY 2025. The transition of the Ngungaju processing plant into care and maintenance was executed smoothly.
Production and Sales Volumes
Production volumes were 188,000 tonnes for the period, while sales volumes exceeded production at 204,000 tonnes. Unit operating costs were $621 per tonne FOB.
P1000 Project Milestone
The P1000 project reached a significant milestone with construction largely complete and tie-ins underway. The project is on budget and on schedule, with wet commissioning currently in progress.
Safety Improvements
The total recordable injury frequency rate dropped from 4.03 in the prior quarter to 3.58, marking the best quarterly performance over the last three years.
Cash Balance and Operational Cash Margin
The Group's cash balance at 31 December was $1.2 billion. The cash margin from operations was $41 million for the half, showing strong cash-generating capability even at low average realized prices.
Negative Updates
Revenue and Price Decline
Group revenues in H1 FY 2025 were $426 million, a 44% reduction on H1 FY 2024, driven by a 58% lower average realized price. The average realized price decreased from US $1,645 per tonne in H1 FY 2024 to US $688 per tonne in H1 FY 2025.
Negative Cash Margin in December Quarter
The cash margin from operations was negative $8 million in the December quarter, impacted by the timing of cash flows and final price adjustments on sales made in the September quarter.
Challenges in Market Pricing
The lithium market has been rebalancing following the highs of 2020 and 2021. Spodumene concentrate pricing had previously reached lows of US $750 per tonne in October last year.
Unit Cost Increase
Unit operating costs on an FOB basis increased marginally by 2% in the December quarter to $621 per tonne, reflecting a mix of reduced costs in dollar terms offset by lower sales volume due to planned downtime.
Company Guidance
During the December quarterly conference call, Pilbara Minerals provided detailed guidance on their financial and operational performance for the fiscal year 2025. Significant highlights included the P850 operating model, which is expected to improve cash flow by approximately $200 million in FY 2025. Production volumes for the December quarter were 188,000 tonnes, while sales volumes exceeded production at 204,000 tonnes. The unit operating costs stood at $621 per tonne FOB, with revenue reaching AUD $216 million. The P1000 project is 95% complete, with commissioning underway. The company reported a positive cash margin from operations of $41 million for the half-year, despite lower average realized prices. Pilbara Minerals emphasized their commitment to cost reduction and maintaining a strong balance sheet, while also highlighting growth opportunities through strategic project developments like the P680 and P1000 expansions. During the Q&A, questions were addressed regarding market conditions, pricing strategies, and future growth options, alongside operational efficiencies and potential financial impacts from the transition to an owner-operator mining model.

Pilbara Minerals Corporate Events

Pilbara Minerals to Release 560,000 Shares from Escrow
Apr 24, 2025

Pilbara Minerals Limited announced the release of 560,000 ordinary shares from voluntary escrow on 4 May 2025, following its acquisition of Latin Resources Limited. This release marks a key step in PLS’s strategic growth and integration efforts, potentially enhancing its market positioning and stakeholder value in the lithium materials industry.

Pilbara Minerals Completes Investment Phase, Focuses on Optimization
Apr 16, 2025

Pilbara Minerals Limited has completed the investment phase of its Pilgangoora P680 and P1000 projects and is now focusing on optimizing operations and reducing unit operating costs. With a strong cash balance of $1.1 billion and an undrawn credit facility of $625 million, the company is strategically positioned in the market, benefiting from exposure to established and ex-China supply chains and a flexible operating platform.

Pilbara Minerals Reports March Quarter Results Amid Strategic Developments
Apr 16, 2025

Pilbara Minerals Limited reported a production volume of 125.0 thousand tonnes for the March quarter of 2025, impacted by the Ngungaju plant’s maintenance and Cyclone Zelia. Despite a 7% increase in average realized prices, revenue decreased to $150 million due to lower sales volumes. The company maintained a strong cash position with a balance of $1.1 billion, focusing on cost reduction and optimization following its investment phase. The completion of the P1000 Project and the acquisition of Latin Resources are expected to enhance production capacity and resource exploration. Additionally, the energization of a lithium-powered battery energy storage system at Pilgangoora marks a significant step in their power strategy, aiming to improve power stability and facilitate future renewable energy integration.

Pilbara Minerals to Release March 2025 Quarterly Report
Apr 1, 2025

Pilbara Minerals Limited (PLS) has announced the release of its March 2025 Quarterly Activities Report scheduled for April 17, 2025. The company will host an investor webcast and call to discuss the quarterly results, providing an opportunity for both retail and professional investors to engage with the company’s performance and strategic direction. This announcement underscores PLS’s transparency and commitment to stakeholder engagement, potentially impacting its market perception and investor relations.

Pilbara Minerals Announces ATO Tax Rulings Impacting Latin Resources Stakeholders
Mar 26, 2025

Pilbara Minerals Limited (PLS) has announced that the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) has published two class rulings regarding the tax implications for Latin Resources Limited shareholders and optionholders. The Scheme Ruling confirms the availability of scrip for scrip capital gains tax roll-over relief for certain shareholders, but not for optionholders. Meanwhile, the Demerger Ruling states that demerger roll-over relief is not available for the distribution of ESG Minerals Limited shares, and that these shares do not constitute a dividend. These rulings provide clarity on the tax treatment of recent corporate actions involving Latin Resources, impacting the financial planning of stakeholders involved.

Director Increases Stake in Pilbara Minerals, Signaling Confidence
Feb 28, 2025

Pilbara Minerals Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, with Nicholas Luigi Cernotta acquiring an additional 39,956 ordinary shares, bringing his total to 353,842 shares. This on-market purchase reflects confidence in the company’s prospects and may positively influence stakeholder perception of the company’s stability and growth potential.

Pilbara Minerals Issues Performance Rights as Part of Employee Incentive Scheme
Feb 21, 2025

Pilbara Minerals Limited announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities in the form of performance rights. This move is part of an employee incentive scheme, with a total of 342,135 performance rights set to expire on December 31, 2028. The issuance of these securities is a strategic step to align employee interests with the company’s long-term goals, potentially enhancing employee motivation and retention. This action could strengthen Pilbara Minerals’ position in the competitive lithium industry by ensuring a committed workforce.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.