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Pilbara Minerals Limited (AU:PLS)
ASX:PLS

Pilbara Minerals (PLS) AI Stock Analysis

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AU

Pilbara Minerals

(Sydney:PLS)

Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
AU$1.50
▲(9.49%Upside)
The overall stock score for Pilbara Minerals Limited is driven primarily by its mixed financial performance and technical analysis. The company's financial stability is challenged by declining revenue and negative cash flow, while technical indicators show bearish sentiment. The negative P/E ratio further weakens its valuation, resulting in a cautious outlook.

Pilbara Minerals (PLS) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Pilbara Minerals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPilbara Minerals Limited explores for, develops, and operates mineral resources in Australia. The company primarily holds a 100% interest in the Pilgangoora lithium-tantalum project located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyPilbara Minerals Limited generates revenue primarily through the sale of lithium and tantalum concentrates. The company extracts and processes these minerals from its Pilgangoora Project, then sells the concentrates to various customers, including manufacturers of lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles, energy storage systems, and consumer electronics. Key revenue streams include long-term offtake agreements with major global battery manufacturers and chemical converters, ensuring a stable demand for its products. Pilbara Minerals also engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its production capabilities and market reach, contributing to its overall revenue growth.

Pilbara Minerals Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -31.50%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 21, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a company in the midst of a strategic transition with strong operational performance, successful project milestones, and safety improvements. However, financial metrics reveal challenges with declining revenues and realized prices, as well as a negative cash margin in the December quarter. The company's focus on cost reduction and strategic growth options are positive, but the impact of market price volatility and increased unit costs present significant challenges.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
P850 Operating Model Implementation
During the December quarter, the P850 operating model was announced and implemented, expected to deliver a cash flow improvement of approximately $200 million in FY 2025. The transition of the Ngungaju processing plant into care and maintenance was executed smoothly.
Production and Sales Volumes
Production volumes were 188,000 tonnes for the period, while sales volumes exceeded production at 204,000 tonnes. Unit operating costs were $621 per tonne FOB.
P1000 Project Milestone
The P1000 project reached a significant milestone with construction largely complete and tie-ins underway. The project is on budget and on schedule, with wet commissioning currently in progress.
Safety Improvements
The total recordable injury frequency rate dropped from 4.03 in the prior quarter to 3.58, marking the best quarterly performance over the last three years.
Cash Balance and Operational Cash Margin
The Group's cash balance at 31 December was $1.2 billion. The cash margin from operations was $41 million for the half, showing strong cash-generating capability even at low average realized prices.
Negative Updates
Revenue and Price Decline
Group revenues in H1 FY 2025 were $426 million, a 44% reduction on H1 FY 2024, driven by a 58% lower average realized price. The average realized price decreased from US $1,645 per tonne in H1 FY 2024 to US $688 per tonne in H1 FY 2025.
Negative Cash Margin in December Quarter
The cash margin from operations was negative $8 million in the December quarter, impacted by the timing of cash flows and final price adjustments on sales made in the September quarter.
Challenges in Market Pricing
The lithium market has been rebalancing following the highs of 2020 and 2021. Spodumene concentrate pricing had previously reached lows of US $750 per tonne in October last year.
Unit Cost Increase
Unit operating costs on an FOB basis increased marginally by 2% in the December quarter to $621 per tonne, reflecting a mix of reduced costs in dollar terms offset by lower sales volume due to planned downtime.
Company Guidance
During the December quarterly conference call, Pilbara Minerals provided detailed guidance on their financial and operational performance for the fiscal year 2025. Significant highlights included the P850 operating model, which is expected to improve cash flow by approximately $200 million in FY 2025. Production volumes for the December quarter were 188,000 tonnes, while sales volumes exceeded production at 204,000 tonnes. The unit operating costs stood at $621 per tonne FOB, with revenue reaching AUD $216 million. The P1000 project is 95% complete, with commissioning underway. The company reported a positive cash margin from operations of $41 million for the half-year, despite lower average realized prices. Pilbara Minerals emphasized their commitment to cost reduction and maintaining a strong balance sheet, while also highlighting growth opportunities through strategic project developments like the P680 and P1000 expansions. During the Q&A, questions were addressed regarding market conditions, pricing strategies, and future growth options, alongside operational efficiencies and potential financial impacts from the transition to an owner-operator mining model.

Pilbara Minerals Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Pilbara Minerals Limited exhibits mixed financial health with strong profitability and balance sheet stability, but significant challenges in revenue and cash flow management. The drastic fall in revenue and negative cash flow in 2024 pose potential risks to financial resilience.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Pilbara Minerals Limited has shown a volatile revenue trend with significant fluctuations over the years. The recent decline in total revenue from $4.06 billion in 2023 to $1.25 billion in 2024 is concerning. Despite this, the company has maintained a positive gross profit margin of 38.1% in 2024. The net profit margin also remains positive at 20.5%, indicating profitability, but the sharp revenue drop poses a risk to stability.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company maintains a strong equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17, signaling low leverage risk. The equity ratio stands at 75.3%, reflecting financial stability and significant shareholder equity compared to total assets. However, the decrease in total assets from the previous year suggests a contraction that should be monitored.
Cash Flow
30
Negative
Pilbara Minerals Limited experienced a substantial decline in free cash flow, from $3.04 billion in 2023 to negative $1.25 billion in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow challenges despite reported profits. This raises concerns about cash flow sustainability and operational efficiency.
BreakdownTTMJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue922.57M1.25B4.06B1.19B175.82M84.15M
Gross Profit147.42M477.81M3.27B794.07M12.58M-35.56M
EBITDA98.43M593.86M3.51B783.52M21.28M-59.14M
Net Income-32.64M256.88M2.39B561.83M-51.45M-99.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.18B4.31B5.20B1.98B949.72M602.46M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.17B1.63B3.34B591.74M99.71M86.25M
Total Debt634.42M555.74M471.95M291.96M166.97M176.45M
Total Liabilities1.01B1.07B1.81B686.36M375.48M215.49M
Stockholders Equity3.18B3.24B3.39B1.29B574.25M386.97M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-916.52M-1.25B3.04B506.40M-20.36M-64.22M
Operating Cash Flow-80.98M-440.22M3.43B634.72M130.00K-41.60M
Investing Cash Flow-774.22M-827.51M-407.96M-204.53M-230.79M-22.61M
Financing Cash Flow-136.35M-392.74M-284.19M58.42M251.33M88.48M

Pilbara Minerals Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price1.37
Price Trends
50DMA
1.38
Negative
100DMA
1.60
Negative
200DMA
2.10
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Negative
RSI
52.98
Neutral
STOCH
75.36
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:PLS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.31, below the 50-day MA of 1.38, and below the 200-day MA of 2.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.36 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:PLS.

Pilbara Minerals Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
62
Neutral
$10.11B9.76-0.15%2.94%2.14%-32.15%
AUPLS
48
Neutral
$4.36B23.42-1.04%-65.07%-102.37%
$1.32B-54.57%
$2.06B1,408.33-36.53%12.28%
$2.79B43.31-33.95%4.54%
AUDRR
75
Outperform
AU$1.99B14.19152.73%4.79%-10.00%-16.51%
AUNIC
57
Neutral
AU$3.00B17.84-7.32%4.35%-6.64%-209.78%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:PLS
Pilbara Minerals
1.37
-1.68
-55.08%
ADMLF
Adriatic Metals Shs Chess Deposit Interests Repr 1 Sh
3.64
1.14
45.60%
IPGDF
IGO
2.70
-1.38
-33.82%
MALRF
Mineral Resources Limited
13.60
-25.68
-65.38%
AU:NIC
Nickel Mines Ltd.
0.72
-0.06
-7.69%
AU:DRR
Deterra Royalties Ltd
3.85
-0.07
-1.79%

Pilbara Minerals Corporate Events

Pilbara Minerals to Release June 2025 Quarterly Report
Jul 1, 2025

Pilbara Minerals Limited has announced that its June 2025 Quarterly Activities Report will be released on 30 July 2025. The company will host an investor webcast and call to discuss the quarterly results, offering separate participation options for retail and professional investors. This initiative underscores PLS’s commitment to transparency and engagement with its stakeholders, potentially impacting investor relations and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PLS) stock is a Hold with a A$2.95 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pilbara Minerals stock, see the AU:PLS Stock Forecast page.

Vanguard Group Acquires Significant Stake in Pilbara Minerals
Jun 25, 2025

The Vanguard Group has become a substantial holder in Pilbara Minerals Limited, acquiring a 5.256% voting power through its various mutual funds and accounts. This significant investment by a major asset manager like Vanguard indicates confidence in Pilbara Minerals’ potential, likely impacting the company’s market position positively and signaling a strong endorsement to other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PLS) stock is a Hold with a A$2.95 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pilbara Minerals stock, see the AU:PLS Stock Forecast page.

Pilbara Minerals Strengthens Position with Completed Projects and Strategic Focus
Jun 24, 2025

Pilbara Minerals has completed its Pilgangoora P680 and P1000 projects and is now focusing on optimizing operations and reducing unit operating costs. With a strong balance sheet, including a $1.1 billion cash balance and a $625 million undrawn credit facility, the company is well-positioned for self-funded growth and strategic diversification, enhancing its industry positioning and offering significant potential for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PLS) stock is a Hold with a A$2.95 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pilbara Minerals stock, see the AU:PLS Stock Forecast page.

AustralianSuper Increases Stake in Pilbara Minerals
Jun 18, 2025

AustralianSuper Pty Ltd has increased its voting power in Pilbara Minerals Limited from 10.49% to 11.54%, as indicated in a recent substantial holding notice. This change in interest reflects AustralianSuper’s growing influence within the company, potentially impacting Pilbara Minerals’ strategic decisions and shareholder dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PLS) stock is a Hold with a A$2.95 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pilbara Minerals stock, see the AU:PLS Stock Forecast page.

Pilbara Minerals Appoints Interim CFO Amid Leadership Transition
Jun 15, 2025

Pilbara Minerals Limited has appointed Mr. Flavio Garofalo as the Interim Chief Financial Officer following the resignation of Mr. Luke Bortoli. Mr. Garofalo, who has extensive experience in finance leadership roles within the mining industry, will serve in this role while the company conducts a formal search for a permanent CFO. This transition is part of PLS’s ongoing efforts to maintain strong financial leadership as it continues to expand its operations and strategic partnerships in the lithium sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PLS) stock is a Hold with a A$2.95 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pilbara Minerals stock, see the AU:PLS Stock Forecast page.

Vanguard Group Acquires Substantial Stake in Pilbara Minerals
Jun 10, 2025

The Vanguard Group has become a substantial holder in Pilbara Minerals Limited, acquiring a 5.001% voting power through its management of various mutual funds and accounts. This acquisition reflects Vanguard’s strategic interest in the lithium market, potentially enhancing Pilbara Minerals’ market position and signaling confidence in the company’s growth prospects, which could have positive implications for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PLS) stock is a Hold with a A$2.95 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pilbara Minerals stock, see the AU:PLS Stock Forecast page.

Pilbara Minerals Boosts Lithium Resource at Pilgangoora
Jun 10, 2025

Pilbara Minerals has announced a significant update to its Mineral Resource at the Pilgangoora Operation, showing a 23% increase in contained lithium oxide and a 10% increase in total resource tonnage. This update reinforces Pilbara Minerals’ position as a leading global supplier of lithium, highlighting the company’s large-scale, high-quality assets and its strategic focus on optimizing operations to drive long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PLS) stock is a Hold with a A$2.95 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pilbara Minerals stock, see the AU:PLS Stock Forecast page.

Pilbara Minerals CFO Resigns Amidst Continued Growth
Jun 3, 2025

Pilbara Minerals Limited announced the resignation of its Chief Financial Officer, Luke Bortoli, who will remain in the role during a transition period to ensure a smooth handover. The company will begin a formal search for a new CFO, considering both internal and external candidates. During his tenure, Bortoli significantly contributed to the company’s growth, securing a A$1 billion Revolving Credit Facility and supporting the acquisition of Latin Resources. His departure marks a notable change in the company’s leadership as it continues to strengthen its financial and operational platform.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PLS) stock is a Hold with a A$2.95 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pilbara Minerals stock, see the AU:PLS Stock Forecast page.

Pilbara Minerals to Release 560,000 Shares from Escrow
Apr 24, 2025

Pilbara Minerals Limited announced the release of 560,000 ordinary shares from voluntary escrow on 4 May 2025, following its acquisition of Latin Resources Limited. This release marks a key step in PLS’s strategic growth and integration efforts, potentially enhancing its market positioning and stakeholder value in the lithium materials industry.

Pilbara Minerals Completes Investment Phase, Focuses on Optimization
Apr 16, 2025

Pilbara Minerals Limited has completed the investment phase of its Pilgangoora P680 and P1000 projects and is now focusing on optimizing operations and reducing unit operating costs. With a strong cash balance of $1.1 billion and an undrawn credit facility of $625 million, the company is strategically positioned in the market, benefiting from exposure to established and ex-China supply chains and a flexible operating platform.

Pilbara Minerals Reports March Quarter Results Amid Strategic Developments
Apr 16, 2025

Pilbara Minerals Limited reported a production volume of 125.0 thousand tonnes for the March quarter of 2025, impacted by the Ngungaju plant’s maintenance and Cyclone Zelia. Despite a 7% increase in average realized prices, revenue decreased to $150 million due to lower sales volumes. The company maintained a strong cash position with a balance of $1.1 billion, focusing on cost reduction and optimization following its investment phase. The completion of the P1000 Project and the acquisition of Latin Resources are expected to enhance production capacity and resource exploration. Additionally, the energization of a lithium-powered battery energy storage system at Pilgangoora marks a significant step in their power strategy, aiming to improve power stability and facilitate future renewable energy integration.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 28, 2025