Nickel Mines Ltd. (NIC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$3.89B
• Dividend Yield: 5.03%
• Average Volume (3M): 8.20M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.08
• Revenue Growth: -2.30%
• EPS Growth: -234.27%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 40,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): <0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 4,340,936,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,511,963
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,196,956
• PEG Ratio: 0.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.03
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$1.26
• Price Target Upside: 40.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$1.00 ▲(11.11% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weaker financial performance (profitability pressure, revenue decline, and negative operating cash flow alongside higher leverage). Technicals are supportive due to a strong uptrend, but overbought signals raise near-term risk. Valuation is mixed (reasonable yield but negative P/E), while the earnings call adds modest support from improved EBITDA and operating execution despite commissioning delays and cash flow headwinds.

Positive Factors

High‑margin HPAL output

HPAL operations running materially above nameplate with very strong per‑tonne EBITDA demonstrates a durable, high‑margin production stream. This diversification from RKEF strengthens cash generation capacity, supports margins under price pressure, and enhances long‑term operational resilience.

Scale from Hengjaya ore sales

Record ore throughput and a significant QoQ EBITDA uplift reflect scalable mining operations and improved per‑tonne economics. Sustained high volumes support stable revenue baselines, lower unit costs via scale, and provide predictable feedstock for downstream projects, aiding long‑term cash flow visibility.

Large development pipeline (Sampala)

A materially large targeted resource and active drilling program position the company to materially expand its reserve base and production potential. Successful development would secure long‑term supply optionality, support growth trajectories, and create scale and cost advantages over multiple years.

Negative Factors

Profitability pressure

Declining revenues and a negative net income indicate structural margin pressure and earnings volatility. If persistent, this undermines retained earnings, restricts reinvestment capacity, and forces reliance on non‑operating levers to sustain growth, increasing execution and financial risk over the medium term.

Operating cash flow weakness

Negative operating cash flow despite positive EBITDA signals working capital or conversion issues that impair true cash generation. Persistent OCF weakness ties up liquidity, may necessitate external financing for capex or project development, and raises the likelihood of funding stress during commodity downturns.

Rising leverage

An increasing reliance on debt reduces financial flexibility and raises interest and refinancing risk, particularly in cyclical commodity markets. Higher leverage constrains the company's ability to fund expansion organically, increases vulnerability to price shocks, and can amplify downside in prolonged weak pricing environments.

Nickel Mines Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nickel Industries Limited engages in nickel ore mining and nickel pig iron production operations in Singapore and Indonesia. The company holds an 80% interest in the Hengjaya Mine that covers an area of 5,983 hectares located in the Morowali Regency of Central Sulawesi; 80% interest in the Ranger Nickel project; and 70% interest in the Angel Nickel project. It also has an option to acquire a 70% interest in the Oracle Nickel project. The company was formerly known as Nickel Mines Limited and changed its name to Nickel Industries Limited in June 2022. Nickel Industries Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Nickel Mines generates revenue primarily through the sale of nickel pig iron (NPI) and ferronickel, which are used in the production of stainless steel. The company's revenue model is driven by the global demand for nickel, especially from the EV market, where nickel is a key component in lithium-ion batteries. Nickel Mines benefits from long-term off-take agreements with major customers, ensuring a steady demand for its products. Additionally, the company's strategic partnerships with established players in the mining and metals industry enhance its market position and operational efficiencies. Fluctuations in nickel prices on global commodity markets also significantly impact the company's earnings, making it essential for Nickel Mines to maintain competitive production costs and efficient operations.

Nickel Mines Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: income statement weakness (revenue drop and negative net income; lower margins) is partly offset by a solid asset base and some positive free cash flow trends, though 2024 operating cash flow was negative and leverage has been rising.

Income Statement

Nickel Mines Ltd. has experienced significant volatility in its income statement. The company saw a substantial drop in revenue from 2023 to 2024, with a negative net income indicating challenges in profitability. The gross profit and EBITDA margins have also decreased compared to prior years, reflecting operational inefficiencies or market pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio that has increased over time, indicating growing reliance on debt financing. While the stockholders' equity remains strong, the equity ratio has declined, suggesting increased financial risk. Despite these concerns, the company maintains a solid asset base which provides some financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals fluctuations, with free cash flow showing positive growth in recent periods. However, the operating cash flow was negative in 2024, highlighting potential challenges in cash generation from core operations. The company needs to focus on improving operating efficiencies to enhance cash flow stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.76B	1.74B	2.76B	1.22B	645.94M	523.49M
Gross Profit	273.29M	314.65M	659.78M	360.42M	252.73M	201.93M
EBITDA	55.67M	62.72M	405.85M	457.29M	306.58M	196.62M
Net Income	-162.05M	-168.59M	121.60M	158.98M	137.94M	160.67M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.84B	3.90B	4.07B	2.67B	1.77B	1.23B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	112.09M	210.95M	774.97M	144.24M	137.86M	351.45M
Total Debt	1.04B	1.05B	845.02M	824.73M	327.61M	45.00M
Total Liabilities	1.30B	1.35B	1.16B	857.98M	472.71M	148.45M
Stockholders Equity	2.11B	2.12B	2.43B	1.30B	1.00B	940.06M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	89.43M	208.79M	170.76M	-120.42M	179.15M	199.44M
Operating Cash Flow	132.39M	281.39M	229.76M	63.04M	189.02M	149.95M
Investing Cash Flow	-429.33M	-288.91M	-1.15B	-430.01M	-597.86M	-184.41M
Financing Cash Flow	74.05M	-64.01M	1.06B	373.15M	197.29M	333.63M

Nickel Mines Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 0.90
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NIC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.94, above the 50-day MA of 0.83, and above the 200-day MA of 0.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:NIC.

Nickel Mines Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ILU	68 Neutral	AU$2.17B	11.42	7.84%	1.04%	-4.84%	-30.61%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
MIN	58 Neutral	AU$11.05B	-12.01	-26.55%	―	-15.27%	-817.26%
NIC	55 Neutral	AU$3.89B	-16.08	-7.26%	5.03%	-2.30%	-234.27%
PLS	54 Neutral	AU$14.14B	-69.67	-5.63%	―	-38.69%	-174.12%
IGO	49 Neutral	AU$6.37B	-6.76	-35.65%	―	-37.23%	-32433.33%
IPX	46 Neutral	AU$2.27B	-36.72	-50.19%	―	―	-20.85%

Nickel Mines Ltd. Corporate Events

Nickel Industries Reshapes ENC Ownership and Secures Long-Term Ore Supply Deal

Nickel Industries has reshaped the ownership and funding structure of its flagship Excelsior Nickel Cobalt HPAL project, following the completion of Sphere Corp’s acquisition of a 10% stake at a US$2.4 billion project valuation. In parallel, Nickel Industries agreed with major shareholder Shanghai Decent to acquire an additional 2% interest in ENC for US$46 million by 31 March 2026, lifting its stake to 46% and making it the project’s largest shareholder, while replacing previously scheduled payments totalling US$253 million and cutting expected cash outflows by US$207 million. The company is also providing a credit enhancement to back Sphere’s US$210 million acquisition loan, giving Nickel Industries effective priority over Sphere’s 10% ENC stake in the event of default and potential discounted access to that interest, while receiving compensation for the guarantee. Separately, Nickel Industries signed a 15‑year memorandum of understanding for its Sampala Project to supply up to 14 million wet metric tonnes of limonite ore annually to a neighbouring HPAL plant under construction, including plans for a feed preparation plant and slurry pipeline that could make previously uneconomic low-grade saprolite commercially viable. Together, these moves strengthen shareholder alignment around ENC, improve Nickel Industries’ funding profile, and enhance the long-term integration and value of its upstream ore assets for future downstream growth opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NIC) stock is a Buy with a A$1.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nickel Mines Ltd. stock, see the AU:NIC Stock Forecast page.

Nickel Industries Hits Safety Milestone and Secures Landmark Solar Power Deal for Low-Carbon Nickel

Nickel Industries reported strong safety performance for the year to 31 December 2025, achieving a lost time injury frequency rate of zero across 17.7 million safe man hours and maintaining a low total recordable injury frequency rate, underlining its robust safety culture and operational discipline. The company further strengthened its sustainability credentials by winning CNBC Indonesia’s Excellence in Sustainability Leadership award and securing financial close on a major 262MWp solar and 80MWh battery storage project at the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park, which will supply renewable power to its ENC HPAL plant under a 25-year fixed-tariff agreement, positioning the operation to deliver some of the lowest-carbon nickel units globally and enhancing its ESG appeal to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NIC) stock is a Buy with a A$1.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nickel Mines Ltd. stock, see the AU:NIC Stock Forecast page.

Nickel Industries Secures SpaceX Supplier Investment and Readies New HPAL Output Amid RKAB Disruption

Nickel Industries reported adjusted EBITDA of US$37.3 million from operations for the December 2025 quarter, with RKEF production and sales slightly higher but margins lower, strong margin expansion from its HNC HPAL operation, and a sharp temporary downturn in mining EBITDA due to delays in securing its 2025 mining quota (RKAB), which have since been resolved. The quarter saw key strategic milestones, including approval of a revised environmental permit (AMDAL) enabling a planned 19 million wmt sales quota for the Hengjaya Mine in 2026, progress toward first production at the ENC HPAL project targeted for late March quarter, and a notable strategic investment from Sphere Corp—an accredited SpaceX supplier—acquiring 10% of ENC with associated nickel cathode offtake, signalling confidence in ENC’s product quality, sustainability credentials and opening a first Western-market offtake channel as nickel and NPI prices trend higher into 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NIC) stock is a Buy with a A$1.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nickel Mines Ltd. stock, see the AU:NIC Stock Forecast page.

Nickel Industries Sets Webcast for December Quarter Activities Report

Nickel Industries Limited has scheduled the release of its December quarter activities report for Thursday, 29 January 2026, and will host a webcast led by Managing Director Justin Werner to discuss the company’s operational activities and financial results for the period. The event, which includes a watch-only webcast and a separate teleconference option for Q&A participation, underscores the company’s efforts to maintain transparent communication with investors and stakeholders about its recent performance and outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NIC) stock is a Hold with a A$0.97 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nickel Mines Ltd. stock, see the AU:NIC Stock Forecast page.

Nickel Industries Flags Lower Quarterly EBITDA After RKAB Delay but Hengjaya Mine Rebounds in Early 2026

Nickel Industries reported that its adjusted EBITDA from operations for the December 2025 quarter is expected to be between US$35 million and US$40 million, after a delay in securing an increased 2025 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) sharply curtailed ore sales from the Hengjaya Mine. The late approval, received only on 11 December, reduced quarterly ore sales to 945,631 wmt from over 3 million wmt in the prior quarter, with the company estimating about US$45 million in lost ore sales and an additional US$18 million in standby contractor costs, though operations resumed on 12 December and the mine has started 2026 strongly, selling about 735,000 wmt of nickel ore by 17 January and benefiting from record quarterly adjusted EBITDA of US$129 million at its HNC HPAL project on a 100% basis.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NIC) stock is a Hold with a A$0.97 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nickel Mines Ltd. stock, see the AU:NIC Stock Forecast page.

Nickel Industries Secures Sphere Corp as Strategic Partner in ENC HPAL Project

Nickel Industries Limited has brought in South Korea’s Sphere Corp. as a strategic partner in its Excelsior Nickel Cobalt HPAL project, with Sphere acquiring a 10% stake that values ENC at US$2.4 billion, while Nickel Industries’ 44% holding remains unchanged as the interest is sold down by another shareholder. Sphere, a KOSDAQ-listed premium alloy and precision materials producer and key supplier to global aerospace players including SpaceX, will offtake its 10% share of ENC’s nickel output as cathode and has secured additional market-priced offtake rights, marking ENC’s first western-market offtake and positioning Nickel Industries to tap growth in the North American aerospace and aeronautical sectors, where product quality and traceability standards are stringent.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NIC) stock is a Buy with a A$1.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nickel Mines Ltd. stock, see the AU:NIC Stock Forecast page.

Nickel Industries Updates Market on Director Norman Seckold’s Shareholdings

Nickel Industries Limited has disclosed a change in director Norman Seckold’s interests in the company’s securities, as required under ASX Listing Rule 3.19A. The notice details Seckold’s direct and indirect holdings, including shares held via investment entities and a superannuation fund over which he has pre-emptive acquisition rights, signalling updated governance and transparency around board-level equity exposure for shareholders and the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NIC) stock is a Buy with a A$1.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nickel Mines Ltd. stock, see the AU:NIC Stock Forecast page.

Nickel Industries Expands 2025 Nickel Ore Sales Quota and Advances Sustainable Practices

Nickel Industries Limited has received approval to extend its 2025 nickel ore sales quota from 9 million to 10.5 million wet metric tonnes, allowing immediate resumption of sales. This extension is supported by the approval of an environmental impact analysis, which also facilitates a potential increase in 2026. The company is implementing innovative environmental practices, such as in-pit tailings storage and slurry pipelines, to reduce costs and emissions, enhancing its position as a low-carbon nickel producer. These developments are significant for Nickel Industries’ operational expansion and commitment to sustainable practices, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NIC) stock is a Buy with a A$0.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nickel Mines Ltd. stock, see the AU:NIC Stock Forecast page.