Nickel Mines Ltd. (AU:NIC)
ASX:NIC
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Nickel Mines Ltd.
(Sydney:NIC)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
AU$1.00
▲(1.01% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:03/25/26
The score is held down primarily by weakened financial performance (margin compression and two consecutive years of net losses), with only partial offset from still-positive free cash flow. Technicals also lean bearish (below key short-term moving averages and negative MACD). Valuation provides limited support because the negative P/E reflects losses and there is no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Asset-light JV business model
Nickel Mines earns via equity stakes and distributions from RKEF NPI operations at IMIP, not upstream exploration. This asset-light, cash-distribution model provides durable, scalable exposure to nickel processing margins and stainless-steel demand while limiting exploration capex and reserve risk.
Negative Factors
Margin compression and net losses
Gross margins have eroded sharply from ~24% (2023) to ~10% (2025), and the company reported net losses for two consecutive years. Sustained margin weakness impairs return metrics, limits retained earnings for reinvestment and increases reliance on JV operating improvements or commodity recovery.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Asset-light JV business model
Nickel Mines earns via equity stakes and distributions from RKEF NPI operations at IMIP, not upstream exploration. This asset-light, cash-distribution model provides durable, scalable exposure to nickel processing margins and stainless-steel demand while limiting exploration capex and reserve risk.
Read all positive factors
Nickel Mines Ltd. (NIC) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$4.19B
Dividend Yield5.03%
Average Volume (3M)8.20M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.68
Revenue Growth-3.26%
EPS Growth66.55%
CountryAU
Employees40,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.01
Shares Outstanding4,341,936,000
10 Day Avg. Volume6,511,963
30 Day Avg. Volume8,196,956
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.63
Price to Book (P/B)1.18
Price to Sales (P/S)1.42
P/FCF Ratio27.27
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$1.36Price Target Upside37.37% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$2.19B
Nickel Mines Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nickel Industries Limited, headquartered in Sydney, Australia, operates in Singapore and Indonesia, focusing on nickel ore extraction and nickel pig iron production. The company possesses an 80% ownership stake in the extensive 5,983-hectare Hengj...
How the Company Makes Money
Nickel Mines Ltd. makes money primarily from its share of earnings and cash distributions generated by its invested/owned interests in Indonesian nickel pig iron (NPI) production operations at IMIP. The core revenue driver is the sale of NPI produ...
Nickel Mines Ltd. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 22, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of transitory operational pain and strong strategic and market tailwinds. Near-term results were negatively impacted by a government-imposed RKAB limit that halted mining for much of the quarter, producing a USD 14.9 million mine EBITDA loss and higher costs from third-party ore purchases. Offsetting these setbacks are several substantial positives: rapid mine ramp-up after reinstatement, strong commodity price movements (nickel and cobalt materially higher), robust HPAL/HNC margins (HNC EBITDA +32% q/q; EBITDA/t up ~29%), ENC nearing commissioning, a strategic 10% sale of ENC to Sphere Corp at a premium (USD 2.4B valuation), and a long-term fixed‑rate 25‑year PPA for a large solar + BESS project. Given the strength of underlying commodity prices, operational recovery, commissioning progress and strategic endorsements, the positives are judged to significantly outweigh the quarter’s temporary lowlights.Positive Updates
Safety and ESG Recognition
17.7 million man-hours without a lost time injury (LTI) and awarded the Excellence in Sustainability Leadership award by CNBC Indonesia, highlighting strong ESG and environmental management credentials.
Negative Updates
RKAB Limit and Mine Shutdown Impact
Government RKAB limit of 9 million wet metric tonnes caused most mining operations to halt for the majority of the quarter; this operational stoppage drove a material negative result at the mine division and required costly adjustments.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Safety and ESG Recognition
17.7 million man-hours without a lost time injury (LTI) and awarded the Excellence in Sustainability Leadership award by CNBC Indonesia, highlighting strong ESG and environmental management credentials.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that it remains confident of securing an increased RKAB to 19.0 million wet metric tonnes (currently restated from 9.0m to 10.5m on Dec 12), which management says would deliver 100% limonite self‑sufficiency for ENC and near‑100% for RKEF (nameplate self‑sufficiency ~11–12m t; company currently running ~25–30% above nameplate), noting it delivered ~1.0m t in the last 19 days and is tracking to ~1.4m t in January; ENC is in unit testing/wet commissioning targeting final commissioning end of this quarter; financials/guides included adjusted EBITDA from operations of USD 37.3m, a December‑quarter EBITDA loss of USD 14.9m (impacted by halted mining/standby costs), RKEF production slightly up (+1% operations) with slightly higher ore cash costs offset by lower electricity, HNC delivered USD 17.2m EBITDA (+32% q/q) and HNC EBITDA per tonne rose from ~$629/t to ~$812/t, MSP contract price +18% to $17,110/t, LME spot >$18,000/t (2025 average $15,162/t), NPI contract $11,100/t vs spot ~$13,200/t (~20% above Dec quarter avg), cobalt spot >$55,000/t (2025 avg ~ $39,967/t), solar PPA project (262 MWp + 80 MW BESS) reached financial close with a 25‑year fixed‑rate offtake, Sphere acquired 10% of ENC at a USD 2.4bn valuation, and development programmes (Sampala/ETL targeting ~6m tpa, haul roads 72% complete, ~18,000m drilling) remain on track.Nickel Mines Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
47
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.71B | 1.74B | 1.88B | 1.22B | 468.19M |
| Gross Profit | 171.13M | 314.65M | 449.68M | 360.42M | 183.19M |
| EBITDA | 247.35M | 62.72M | 405.85M | 457.29M | 222.22M |
| Net Income | -59.05M | -168.59M | 121.60M | 158.98M | 99.98M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.27B | 3.90B | 4.07B | 2.67B | 1.77B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 357.00M | 210.95M | 774.97M | 144.24M | 99.93M |
| Total Debt | 1.20B | 1.05B | 845.02M | 559.29M | 237.46M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.81B | 1.35B | 1.16B | 857.98M | 472.71M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.04B | 2.12B | 2.43B | 1.30B | 1.00B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 88.57M | 208.79M | 170.76M | 53.65M | 182.53M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 105.25M | 281.39M | 229.76M | 63.04M | 189.02M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -41.56M | -288.91M | -1.15B | -430.01M | -433.34M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 57.43M | -64.01M | 1.06B | 373.15M | 143.00M |
Nickel Mines Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
0.99
Price Trends
1.02
Negative
0.98
Negative
0.87
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.02
Positive
41.96
Neutral
46.65
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NIC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.01, below the 50-day MA of 1.02, and above the 200-day MA of 0.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:NIC.
Nickel Mines Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
56 Neutral | AU$3.27B | -11.29 | -12.75% | 1.04% | -13.24% | -223.96% | |
55 Neutral | AU$13.88B | 33.74 | 11.50% | ― | 3.58% | ― | |
53 Neutral | AU$19.88B | -205.80 | -2.64% | ― | 4.86% | -177.78% | |
50 Neutral | AU$1.53B | -30.29 | -35.30% | ― | ― | -50.75% | |
49 Neutral | AU$6.53B | -30.51 | -9.95% | ― | -36.60% | 80.62% | |
47 Neutral | AU$4.19B | -50.04 | -2.79% | 5.03% | -3.26% | 66.55% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:NIC
Nickel Mines Ltd.
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Nickel Mines Ltd. Corporate Events
Nickel Industries Secures Strong Shareholder Backing at AGM
May 26, 2026
Nickel Industries Limited reported that all resolutions put to shareholders at its Annual General Meeting on 26 May 2026 were passed by poll. The resolutions included approvals of the remuneration report, re-elections of several directors, and gra...
Nickel Industries Sets Strict Parameters Around 2026 AGM Presentation Use
May 26, 2026
Nickel Industries Limited has released a presentation prepared for its May 2026 annual general meeting, outlining information intended for institutional recipients on a confidential basis. The company emphasises that the material is for informatio...
Nickel Industries Corrects AGM Agenda to Back Re‑election of Key Director
May 12, 2026
Nickel Industries Limited has issued a supplementary notice to its 2026 Annual General Meeting materials, correcting its director election resolutions by withdrawing the proposed re-election of Emma Hall, who is not required to stand this year, an...
Nickel Industries Posts Strong Safety Record and Advances Sustainability Efforts
Apr 29, 2026
Nickel Industries reported strong safety performance for the 12 months to 31 March 2026, recording a lost time injury frequency rate of 0.00 across 17.7 million safe man hours and a rolling total recordable injury frequency rate of 0.45. These met...
Nickel Industries lifts earnings as Indonesian ore curbs boost nickel prices
Apr 29, 2026
Nickel Industries reported its strongest operational earnings since late 2023, delivering US$135.6 million in adjusted EBITDA for the March 2026 quarter on the back of sharply higher margins in its RKEF and HPAL divisions and a step-change in ore ...
Nickel Industries Secures US$450m Loan Package to Refinance Debt and Fund HPAL Growth
Apr 28, 2026
Nickel Industries has secured new unsecured syndicated loan facilities totalling US$450 million, led by Indonesia’s BNI, comprising a US$350 million term loan and a US$100 million revolving facility. The funding will refinance US$398 million...
Nickel Industries Publishes Comprehensive 2025 Annual Report
Apr 24, 2026
Nickel Industries has released its 2025 Annual Report, outlining the chairman’s overview, a review of operations, and a detailed corporate governance statement. The report reflects the company’s ongoing focus on transparent oversight a...
Nickel Industries Sets May Date for 2026 AGM and Board Re-elections
Apr 24, 2026
Nickel Industries Limited has released the notice of its Annual General Meeting, scheduled for 26 May 2026 at DLA Piper Australia in Sydney, with the shareholder voting record date set for the evening of 24 May 2026. The AGM will receive the compa...
Nickel Industries Sets Webcast for March Quarter Results Update
Apr 17, 2026
Nickel Industries Limited has scheduled the release of its March 2026 Quarterly Activities Report for Wednesday, 29 April 2026, and will host an investor webcast to present and discuss the quarter’s operational and financial performance. Man...
Nickel Industries Updates Market on Director Norman Seckold’s Shareholdings
Apr 16, 2026
Nickel Industries Limited has reported a change in the relevant interests of director Norman Seckold in accordance with ASX listing rules. The filing details adjustments to Seckold’s direct and indirect holdings, including shares and perform...
Nickel Industries Restarts Hengjaya Mine Operations After Safety Probe
Apr 8, 2026
Nickel Industries has evolved into a globally significant nickel producer and is shifting its focus toward the electric vehicle battery supply chain. It has a 10% stake in the Huayue Nickel Cobalt HPAL project, producing mixed hydroxide precipitat...
Nickel Industries lifts ENC stake to 46% as flagship HPAL project enters commissioning
Apr 1, 2026
Nickel Industries Ltd has completed the acquisition of a final 2% stake in the Excelsior Nickel Cobalt HPAL project from Decent Resource for US$46 million, lifting its holding to 46% and making it the project’s largest shareholder. The ENC p...
Nickel Industries Confirms Lapse of 391,398 Performance Rights
Mar 31, 2026
Nickel Industries Limited has notified the market that 391,398 performance rights, trading under the ASX code NICAG, have lapsed and ceased to exist. The lapse occurred because the conditions attached to these conditional rights to securities were...
Nickel Industries Halts Hengjaya Mine After Fatal Incident
Mar 26, 2026
Nickel Industries Limited has suspended all operations at its Hengjaya Mine following a fatal incident reported a day earlier. The shutdown will remain in place while Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources conducts an investiga...
Nickel Industries Reports Contractor Fatality at ENC Project Site
Mar 25, 2026
Nickel Industries has reported a fatal accident involving a contractor working for PT Fajar Metal Industry on construction of transmission lines tied to the slurry plant and dry stacked tailings facility at its ENC project in Indonesia. The incide...
Nickel Industries Secures Larger Hengjaya Quota and Long-Term Ore Deal for ENC
Mar 24, 2026
Nickel Industries has secured a higher 2026 production quota for its Hengjaya Mine in Indonesia, with its nickel ore sales license lifted from 9 million to 14.3 million wet metric tonnes. The expanded allocation will supply both the Excelsior Nick...
Nickel Industries Reissues 2025 Sustainability Report to Fix Omission
Mar 10, 2026
Nickel Industries Limited has reissued its AASB S2 Sustainability Report for the year ended 31 December 2025 after identifying an inadvertent omission in the previously released final version. The company has now inserted the Directors’ Decl...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.