Nickel Mines Ltd. (AU:NIC)
ASX:NIC
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Nickel Mines Ltd.
(Sydney:NIC)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.87
â–Ľ(-0.91% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/25/26
The score is held down primarily by weakened financial performance (margin compression and two consecutive years of net losses), with only partial offset from still-positive free cash flow. Technicals also lean bearish (below key short-term moving averages and negative MACD). Valuation provides limited support because the negative P/E reflects losses and there is no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Asset-backed NPI revenue model
Owning stakes in operating NPI lines creates an asset-backed, volume-driven revenue stream tied to physical production rather than trading. That structure reduces development execution risk versus greenfield projects, provides predictable proportional cash receipts from plant output, and aligns earnings with long‑term stainless‑steel raw material demand.
Negative Factors
Margin erosion and recurring net losses
Steep margin compression and two consecutive years of net losses indicate structural pressure on pricing or rising unit costs. Persistently weaker margins reduce return on invested capital and make it harder to fund growth internally, increasing dependency on external financing or asset sales to restore profitability over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Asset-backed NPI revenue model
Owning stakes in operating NPI lines creates an asset-backed, volume-driven revenue stream tied to physical production rather than trading. That structure reduces development execution risk versus greenfield projects, provides predictable proportional cash receipts from plant output, and aligns earnings with long‑term stainless‑steel raw material demand.
Read all positive factors
Nickel Mines Ltd. (NIC) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$4.10B
Dividend Yield5.03%
Average Volume (3M)8.20M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.74
Revenue Growth-2.30%
EPS Growth-234.27%
CountryAU
Employees40,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.02
Shares Outstanding4,341,936,000
10 Day Avg. Volume6,511,963
30 Day Avg. Volume8,196,956
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.94
Price to Book (P/B)1.77
Price to Sales (P/S)2.12
P/FCF Ratio40.87
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$1.40Price Target Upside59.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$2.24B
Nickel Mines Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nickel Industries Limited engages in nickel ore mining and nickel pig iron production operations in Singapore and Indonesia. The company holds an 80% interest in the Hengjaya Mine that covers an area of 5,983 hectares located in the Morowali Regen...
How the Company Makes Money
NIC makes money primarily by earning its share of revenue from the sale of nickel pig iron (NPI) produced at the Indonesian facilities in which it holds ownership interests. Revenue is generated when NPI is sold to customers (typically participant...
Nickel Mines Ltd. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 22, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of transitory operational pain and strong strategic and market tailwinds. Near-term results were negatively impacted by a government-imposed RKAB limit that halted mining for much of the quarter, producing a USD 14.9 million mine EBITDA loss and higher costs from third-party ore purchases. Offsetting these setbacks are several substantial positives: rapid mine ramp-up after reinstatement, strong commodity price movements (nickel and cobalt materially higher), robust HPAL/HNC margins (HNC EBITDA +32% q/q; EBITDA/t up ~29%), ENC nearing commissioning, a strategic 10% sale of ENC to Sphere Corp at a premium (USD 2.4B valuation), and a long-term fixed‑rate 25‑year PPA for a large solar + BESS project. Given the strength of underlying commodity prices, operational recovery, commissioning progress and strategic endorsements, the positives are judged to significantly outweigh the quarter’s temporary lowlights.Positive Updates
Safety and ESG Recognition
17.7 million man-hours without a lost time injury (LTI) and awarded the Excellence in Sustainability Leadership award by CNBC Indonesia, highlighting strong ESG and environmental management credentials.
Negative Updates
RKAB Limit and Mine Shutdown Impact
Government RKAB limit of 9 million wet metric tonnes caused most mining operations to halt for the majority of the quarter; this operational stoppage drove a material negative result at the mine division and required costly adjustments.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Safety and ESG Recognition
17.7 million man-hours without a lost time injury (LTI) and awarded the Excellence in Sustainability Leadership award by CNBC Indonesia, highlighting strong ESG and environmental management credentials.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that it remains confident of securing an increased RKAB to 19.0 million wet metric tonnes (currently restated from 9.0m to 10.5m on Dec 12), which management says would deliver 100% limonite self‑sufficiency for ENC and near‑100% for RKEF (nameplate self‑sufficiency ~11–12m t; company currently running ~25–30% above nameplate), noting it delivered ~1.0m t in the last 19 days and is tracking to ~1.4m t in January; ENC is in unit testing/wet commissioning targeting final commissioning end of this quarter; financials/guides included adjusted EBITDA from operations of USD 37.3m, a December‑quarter EBITDA loss of USD 14.9m (impacted by halted mining/standby costs), RKEF production slightly up (+1% operations) with slightly higher ore cash costs offset by lower electricity, HNC delivered USD 17.2m EBITDA (+32% q/q) and HNC EBITDA per tonne rose from ~$629/t to ~$812/t, MSP contract price +18% to $17,110/t, LME spot >$18,000/t (2025 average $15,162/t), NPI contract $11,100/t vs spot ~$13,200/t (~20% above Dec quarter avg), cobalt spot >$55,000/t (2025 avg ~ $39,967/t), solar PPA project (262 MWp + 80 MW BESS) reached financial close with a 25‑year fixed‑rate offtake, Sphere acquired 10% of ENC at a USD 2.4bn valuation, and development programmes (Sampala/ETL targeting ~6m tpa, haul roads 72% complete, ~18,000m drilling) remain on track.Nickel Mines Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
47
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.71B | 1.74B | 2.76B | 1.22B | 645.94M |
| Gross Profit | 171.13M | 314.65M | 659.78M | 360.42M | 252.73M |
| EBITDA | 247.35M | 62.72M | 405.85M | 457.29M | 306.58M |
| Net Income | -59.05M | -168.59M | 121.60M | 158.98M | 137.94M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.27B | 3.90B | 4.07B | 2.67B | 1.77B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 357.00M | 210.95M | 774.97M | 144.24M | 137.86M |
| Total Debt | 1.20B | 1.05B | 845.02M | 824.73M | 327.61M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.81B | 1.35B | 1.16B | 857.98M | 472.71M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.04B | 2.12B | 2.43B | 1.30B | 1.00B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 88.57M | 208.79M | 170.76M | -120.42M | 179.15M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 105.25M | 281.39M | 229.76M | 63.04M | 189.02M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -41.56M | -288.91M | -1.15B | -430.01M | -597.86M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 57.43M | -64.01M | 1.06B | 373.15M | 197.29M |
Nickel Mines Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
0.88
Price Trends
0.94
Negative
0.85
Positive
0.79
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.02
Positive
42.17
Neutral
27.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NIC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.88 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.94, below the 50-day MA of 0.94, and above the 200-day MA of 0.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:NIC.
Nickel Mines Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
54 Neutral | AU$11.15B | 5.40 | 11.50% | ― | -15.27% | -817.26% | |
49 Neutral | AU$2.77B | -8.61 | -12.75% | 1.04% | -4.84% | -30.61% | |
47 Neutral | AU$4.10B | -61.30 | -7.26% | 5.03% | -2.30% | -234.27% | |
45 Neutral | AU$15.85B | 103.52 | -2.64% | ― | -38.69% | -174.12% | |
45 Neutral | AU$5.92B | -45.43 | -35.65% | ― | -37.23% | -32433.33% | |
43 Neutral | AU$1.16B | -8.87 | -35.30% | ― | ― | -20.85% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:NIC
Nickel Mines Ltd.
0.95
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51.20%
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4.92
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AU:ILU
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6.44
2.26
54.18%
AU:IGO
IGO
7.83
3.72
90.51%
AU:MIN
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56.85
32.33
131.85%
AU:IPX
Iperionx Limited
3.43
0.25
7.86%
Nickel Mines Ltd. Corporate Events
Nickel Industries Reports Contractor Fatality at ENC Project Site
Mar 25, 2026
Nickel Industries has reported a fatal accident involving a contractor working for PT Fajar Metal Industry on construction of transmission lines tied to the slurry plant and dry stacked tailings facility at its ENC project in Indonesia. The incide...
Nickel Industries Secures Larger Hengjaya Quota and Long-Term Ore Deal for ENC
Mar 24, 2026
Nickel Industries has secured a higher 2026 production quota for its Hengjaya Mine in Indonesia, with its nickel ore sales license lifted from 9 million to 14.3 million wet metric tonnes. The expanded allocation will supply both the Excelsior Nick...
Nickel Industries Reissues 2025 Sustainability Report to Fix Omission
Mar 10, 2026
Nickel Industries Limited has reissued its AASB S2 Sustainability Report for the year ended 31 December 2025 after identifying an inadvertent omission in the previously released final version. The company has now inserted the Directors’ Decl...
Nickel Industries Discloses Director Share Rights Conversion
Feb 24, 2026
Nickel Industries Limited has announced a change in director Chris Shepherd’s interests following the conversion of vested share rights into fully paid ordinary shares. Shepherd converted 1,000,000 share rights into 1,000,000 fully paid ordi...
Nickel Industries Seeks ASX Quotation for 1 Million New Shares
Feb 24, 2026
Nickel Industries Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 1,000,000 new ordinary fully paid shares, with an issue date of February 24, 2026. The additional securities arise from the exercise or conversion of existing options or other conve...
Nickel Industries Outlines ASX-Aligned Corporate Governance Framework
Feb 22, 2026
Nickel Industries Limited has reaffirmed its commitment to best practice corporate governance, aligning its policies with the ASX Corporate Governance Council’s fourth-edition Principles and Recommendations. The company has detailed the exte...
Nickel Industries Issues 2025 Annual Results Presentation With Strict Disclaimer
Feb 22, 2026
Nickel Industries Limited has released an annual results presentation for 2025, providing information intended to accompany a verbal briefing to its audience. The document is framed as informational rather than advisory and is aimed at institution...
Nickel Industries Sets Webcast for 2025 Full-Year Results Release
Feb 20, 2026
Nickel Industries Limited has scheduled the release of its 2025 Annual Report for Monday, 23 February 2026, signaling an upcoming update on its financial and operational performance. Managing Director Justin Werner will host a webcast and teleconf...
Nickel Industries Reshapes ENC Ownership and Secures Long-Term Ore Supply Deal
Jan 30, 2026
Nickel Industries has reshaped the ownership and funding structure of its flagship Excelsior Nickel Cobalt HPAL project, following the completion of Sphere Corp’s acquisition of a 10% stake at a US$2.4 billion project valuation. In parallel,...
Nickel Industries Hits Safety Milestone and Secures Landmark Solar Power Deal for Low-Carbon Nickel
Jan 29, 2026
Nickel Industries reported strong safety performance for the year to 31 December 2025, achieving a lost time injury frequency rate of zero across 17.7 million safe man hours and maintaining a low total recordable injury frequency rate, underlining...
Nickel Industries Secures SpaceX Supplier Investment and Readies New HPAL Output Amid RKAB Disruption
Jan 29, 2026
Nickel Industries reported adjusted EBITDA of US$37.3 million from operations for the December 2025 quarter, with RKEF production and sales slightly higher but margins lower, strong margin expansion from its HNC HPAL operation, and a sharp tempora...
Nickel Industries Sets Webcast for December Quarter Activities Report
Jan 19, 2026
Nickel Industries Limited has scheduled the release of its December quarter activities report for Thursday, 29 January 2026, and will host a webcast led by Managing Director Justin Werner to discuss the company’s operational activities and f...
Nickel Industries Flags Lower Quarterly EBITDA After RKAB Delay but Hengjaya Mine Rebounds in Early 2026
Jan 18, 2026
Nickel Industries reported that its adjusted EBITDA from operations for the December 2025 quarter is expected to be between US$35 million and US$40 million, after a delay in securing an increased 2025 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) sharply cur...
Nickel Industries Secures Sphere Corp as Strategic Partner in ENC HPAL Project
Jan 1, 2026
Nickel Industries Limited has brought in South Korea’s Sphere Corp. as a strategic partner in its Excelsior Nickel Cobalt HPAL project, with Sphere acquiring a 10% stake that values ENC at US$2.4 billion, while Nickel Industries’ 44% h...
Nickel Industries Updates Market on Director Norman Seckold’s Shareholdings
Dec 29, 2025
Nickel Industries Limited has disclosed a change in director Norman Seckold’s interests in the company’s securities, as required under ASX Listing Rule 3.19A. The notice details Seckold’s direct and indirect holdings, including s...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.