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Nido Education Limited (AU:NDO)
ASX:NDO
Australian Market

Nido Education Limited (NDO) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:NDO

Nido Education Limited

(Sydney:NDO)

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Neutral 56 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.52
▲(10.64% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is held back primarily by financial risk from high and rising leverage and mixed earnings quality (margin compression and weaker cash conversion). Valuation is a positive offset (moderate P/E and very high dividend yield), but technical indicators remain bearish with the stock trading below key moving averages and negative MACD.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth and scale
Consistent high revenue growth (2025 +~34% YoY) indicates sustainable demand expansion and successful scaling of Nido's education offerings. Over a 2–6 month horizon this supports durable top-line momentum, funds reinvestment in capacity and curriculum, and creates optionality to improve margins through scale.
Return to profitability and operating improvement
The company’s transition from loss-making to profitable operations and improved operating margins demonstrates structural progress in cost control and business model execution. Sustained operating profitability over months enhances resilience to cycle swings and supports reinvestment, dividend capacity, or debt reduction decisions.
Positive cash generation and free cash flow
Material positive operating cash flow and FCF in 2025 show the business can convert earnings into cash rather than relying solely on accruals. Durable cash generation over 2–6 months underpins ability to fund working capital, capex, distributions or debt paydown, improving financial flexibility if maintained.
Negative Factors
Elevated and rising leverage
A debt-heavy capital structure (debt-to-equity ~1.90) materially constrains strategic flexibility. Over a 2–6 month horizon high and rising leverage increases interest and refinancing exposure, reduces ability to invest during downturns, and amplifies the impact of any earnings or cash-flow shortfalls on solvency risk.
Margin compression and gross margin decline
Significant deterioration in gross and net margins signals structural pressure from higher delivery costs, pricing stress, or adverse mix. Over months this reduces retained earnings and cash generation potential, making it harder to rebuild equity or absorb shocks without cutting investment or taking on more costly financing.
Weakening cash conversion and volatile FCF
Declining cash conversion and volatile free cash flow point to working-capital swings or inconsistent cash realization. Over a 2–6 month window this raises the probability that reported profits won’t translate to cash, complicating debt servicing, capex planning and dividend maintenance without resorting to additional borrowing.

Nido Education Limited (NDO) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Nido Education Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNido Education Limited owns, operates, and manages long day early childhood education and care centers under the Nido Early School brand name in Australia. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Drummoyne, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyNido Education generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its online courses and educational platforms. Users pay for access to a wide range of courses tailored to different educational levels and subjects. Additionally, the company may earn revenue through partnerships with educational institutions, licensing its technology and content, and offering professional development programs for educators. Other potential revenue streams could include sponsored content, affiliate marketing, and sales of educational materials. The company's focus on scalable digital solutions allows it to reach a broader audience, contributing to consistent revenue growth.

Nido Education Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong revenue growth and a return to profitability support the score, but 2025 margin compression and weakening cash conversion reduce confidence in earnings quality. The balance sheet is the main drag due to elevated and rising leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.90).
Income Statement
62
Positive
Revenue has scaled rapidly over the last several years (2025 revenue up ~34% year over year), showing strong demand and expansion. Profitability, however, has been volatile: the company swung from a loss in 2023 to a profit in 2024 and remained profitable in 2025, but 2025 net margin (~3.8%) dropped meaningfully from 2024 (~9.0%). Operating profitability improved versus 2024 (higher operating margin), yet the sharp decline in gross margin in 2025 suggests higher delivery costs, pricing pressure, or mix changes—an important watch item.
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
Leverage is elevated and increasing: debt-to-equity rose to ~1.90 in 2025 from ~1.49 in 2024, and total debt increased to ~A$213m. Equity is positive in recent years, but the capital structure remains debt-heavy, which can constrain flexibility if earnings soften. Returns on equity improved from negative levels in 2022–2023 to positive in 2024–2025, but the 2025 return (~5.8%) is modest given the leverage and does not yet indicate strong balance-sheet efficiency.
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
Cash generation is positive, with 2025 operating cash flow of ~A$20.6m and free cash flow of ~A$15.5m. That said, cash conversion weakened versus 2024: operating cash flow covered only ~51% of net income in 2025 (down from ~77% in 2024), and free cash flow was ~75% of net income (down from ~96%). Free cash flow growth is also highly volatile across years, suggesting variability in working capital or investment needs.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue169.87M163.63M93.37M57.94M19.22M
Gross Profit38.18M154.59M86.66M6.64M5.19M
EBITDA36.25M25.95M-13.58M5.25M4.77M
Net Income6.49M14.65M-18.11M-6.78M1.88M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets342.83M323.81M323.88M308.90M20.91M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments5.85M3.51M25.57M23.20M1.34M
Total Debt212.90M184.07M189.98M187.61M2.24M
Total Liabilities230.54M200.13M214.43M197.10M23.25M
Stockholders Equity112.29M123.68M109.45M111.80M-2.34M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow15.48M27.33M-58.00K-2.33M1.83M
Operating Cash Flow20.57M28.50M293.00K-2.66M2.04M
Investing Cash Flow-17.17M-24.34M-79.67M-2.83M-204.00K
Financing Cash Flow-1.06M-26.22M102.63M6.30M-1.56M

Nido Education Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price0.47
Price Trends
50DMA
0.53
Negative
100DMA
0.57
Negative
200DMA
0.62
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.02
Negative
RSI
47.89
Neutral
STOCH
56.41
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NDO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.46, below the 50-day MA of 0.53, and below the 200-day MA of 0.62, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:NDO.

Nido Education Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
58
Neutral
AU$106.83M10.0012.33%9.92%
56
Neutral
AU$106.70M16.3812.24%12.92%26.16%
53
Neutral
AU$122.81M100.000.15%-1.08%
48
Neutral
AU$31.60M-7.7910.80%1.67%-2.81%-503.02%
45
Neutral
AU$14.59M-13.58-7.51%1.42%86.97%
38
Underperform
AU$20.95M-3.21-126.76%-14.55%70.98%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:NDO
Nido Education Limited
0.47
-0.34
-42.12%
AU:EVO
Evolve Education Group Ltd
0.53
-0.17
-24.57%
AU:AKG
Academies Australasia Group Limited
0.11
<0.01
10.00%
AU:CLU
Cluey Ltd
0.05
-0.03
-40.70%
AU:3PL
3P Learning Ltd.
0.45
-0.21
-31.82%
AU:KME
Kip McGrath Education Centres Limited
0.57
0.11
23.91%

Nido Education Limited Corporate Events

Nido Education lifts revenue, trims profit and maintains strong dividend
Feb 25, 2026

Nido Education Limited reported full-year 2025 group revenue of $173.0 million, up 4% on the prior corresponding period, and Adjusted EBITDA of $17.0 million, while service-level operations delivered $30.2 million in AEBITDA with improved wage-to-revenue efficiency at 55%. Despite higher support office costs and lower margins reducing Adjusted NPAT to $11.0 million, the board declared a fully franked final dividend of 2.2 cents per share, taking the full-year payout to 3.7 cents and offering a 5.5% yield on the current share price, underscoring management’s confidence in the resilience of its operating model.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NDO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.56 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nido Education Limited stock, see the AU:NDO Stock Forecast page.

Nido Education Declares Six‑Month Dividend of AUD 0.022 Per Share
Feb 25, 2026

Nido Education Limited has declared a six‑month dividend of AUD 0.022 per ordinary fully paid share for the period ended 31 December 2025. The dividend will trade ex‑dividend on 10 March 2026, with a record date of 11 March 2026 and payment scheduled for 20 March 2026, and shareholders must provide valid Australian bank details or use Computershare’s Global Wire service to receive the distribution, otherwise payments will be withheld until such information is supplied.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NDO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.56 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nido Education Limited stock, see the AU:NDO Stock Forecast page.

Nido Education Files 2025 Corporate Governance Statement with ASX
Feb 25, 2026

Nido Education Limited has lodged its 2025 Corporate Governance Statement and accompanying Appendix 4G with the ASX, in line with listing requirements. The governance statement, approved by the board and current as of 25 February 2026, details the company’s adherence to ASX Corporate Governance Council principles, underscoring its efforts to maintain transparency and regulatory compliance for investors.

By placing its corporate governance statement on its website and formally linking it to the ASX filing, Nido provides a centralised resource for shareholders to assess its governance practices. The move reinforces the company’s commitment to disclosure standards, which is increasingly important for listed education providers seeking investor confidence and robust oversight in a regulated market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NDO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.56 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nido Education Limited stock, see the AU:NDO Stock Forecast page.

Nido Education files 2025 annual results and schedules investor briefing
Feb 25, 2026

Nido Education Limited, a national operator of long-day early childhood education and care services under the Nido Early School brand, has been expanding its presence in Australia’s early learning sector since its establishment in 2021. The company targets families seeking structured early education and care, positioning itself as an integrated owner, operator and manager in the childcare market.

Nido has lodged its 2025 Annual Report and Appendix 4E, outlining its full-year financial and operational results for the period, with the documents now available to the market. The company will brief shareholders via a scheduled conference call, underscoring its focus on investor engagement and transparency around performance and strategy in the early childhood education sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NDO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.56 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nido Education Limited stock, see the AU:NDO Stock Forecast page.

Nido Education Options Lapse, Simplifying Capital Structure
Jan 8, 2026

Nido Education Limited has announced the cessation of a total of 395,643 options (security codes NDOAA and NDOAB), which lapsed on 8 January 2026 after the conditions attached to these securities were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The expiry of these options reduces the company’s pool of potential future equity issuance, slightly simplifying its capital structure and potentially affecting the dilution outlook for existing shareholders, but does not alter its current issued share capital or day-to-day operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NDO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nido Education Limited stock, see the AU:NDO Stock Forecast page.

Nido Education Issues 11,922 New Shares Following Option Conversions
Jan 5, 2026

Nido Education Limited has issued 11,922 new fully paid ordinary shares following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted equity securities. The additional shares, issued on 31 December 2025, marginally increase the company’s share capital and reflect the take-up of incentive or convertible arrangements, resulting in a small dilution for existing shareholders but signaling continued alignment of certain stakeholders with the company’s equity.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NDO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nido Education Limited stock, see the AU:NDO Stock Forecast page.

Nido Education Expands with $6 Million Acquisition of Child Care Services
Dec 8, 2025

Nido Education Limited has completed the acquisition of two child care services from its incubation pipeline for $6 million. These services, located in New South Wales and Western Australia, boast occupancy rates above 90% and are expected to contribute an estimated EBIT of $1.3 million in 2026. This acquisition aligns with Nido’s growth strategy, which focuses on achieving specific financial and occupancy metrics before exercising call options.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NDO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nido Education Limited stock, see the AU:NDO Stock Forecast page.

Nido Education CEO Increases Stake with Significant Share Acquisitions
Dec 2, 2025

Nido Education Limited has announced a series of on-market acquisitions of ordinary shares by its CEO and Director, Mr. Adam Lai, totaling over 168,000 shares across several transactions from November 25 to December 2, 2025. This activity indicates a significant increase in personal investment by the CEO, which may reflect confidence in the company’s future prospects and could influence investor sentiment positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NDO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nido Education Limited stock, see the AU:NDO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 27, 2026