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Evolve Education Group Ltd (AU:EVO)
ASX:EVO
Australian Market

Evolve Education Group Ltd (EVO) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:EVO

Evolve Education Group Ltd

(Sydney:EVO)

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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.44
▼(-32.77% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is driven by improving financial performance and strong cash generation, with attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by weak technicals (price below key moving averages and negative momentum) and a still-meaningful debt load that adds risk if earnings soften.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow strength
FCF conversion close to net income and ~26% FCF growth in 2025 indicate durable cash generation ability. Strong, repeatable cash flow supports debt servicing, dividend capacity and reinvestment into centres and training, improving financial flexibility over the next 2–6 months.
Improved margins
Operating margins around 22% and net margins near 10% in 2025 reflect improved cost control and pricing power in the core ECE business. Sustained margins enhance resilience to revenue shocks and provide room for reinvestment or shareholder returns over a multi-month horizon.
Revenue growth momentum
Recent revenue growth (~13% reported) signals recovering enrolments and expanding service mix (centres plus teacher training). Persistent top-line growth strengthens scale economics and supports margin durability if enrolment trends and funding remain stable over coming months.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Debt running above equity leaves the balance sheet moderately-to-elevated leveraged. This constrains capital flexibility and raises refinancing and interest coverage risk if earnings dip, making the business more vulnerable to sector shocks or slower enrolment over the next 2–6 months.
Historic earnings volatility
Past swings including loss years and large revenue movements reduce predictability of profits and cash flow. That variability heightens execution risk for sustaining margins and servicing debt, meaning recent gains may prove uneven without consistent operational delivery.
Dependence on enrolment and funding
Revenue and funding sensitivity to occupancy, hours mix and compliance makes operations exposed to demographic shifts, teacher availability and policy changes. Structural dependence on enrolments and funding rules can materially affect revenues and margins over the medium term.

Evolve Education Group Ltd (EVO) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Evolve Education Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEmbark Education Limited provides early childhood education (ECE) services in New Zealand and Australia. The company operates and manages ECE centers. It operates 109 ECE centers in New Zealand and 23 ECE centers in Australia under the Lollipops, Active Explorers, Learning Adventures, Little Earth Montessori, Little Lights, Little Wonders, and Pascals brand names. The company was formerly known as Evolve Education Group Limited and changed its name to Embark Education Limited in October 2022. Embark Education Limited was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Auckland, New Zealand.
How the Company Makes MoneyEvolve Education Group makes money primarily from operating early childhood education centres, earning revenue from childcare/early learning fees paid by parents and caregivers, and from government funding/subsidies tied to ECE participation (where applicable under New Zealand’s ECE funding settings). A second revenue stream comes from its teacher education and training activities, which generate income from tuition/course fees and any applicable education-related funding for enrolled learners (subject to regulatory and eligibility settings). The company’s earnings are therefore driven by centre occupancy/enrolments, the mix of hours/age groups attended (which influences fee and funding rates), pricing, staffing costs and teacher availability, and compliance with education and licensing requirements that affect funding eligibility.

Evolve Education Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Profitability has improved with solid 2025 operating (~22%) and net (~10%) margins and ~13% revenue growth, supported by generally strong free cash flow (FCF close to net income; ~26% FCF growth in 2025). Offsetting this are historical volatility (including loss/negative margin years) and a still-leveraged balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~1.16–1.21 recently).
Income Statement
62
Positive
Profitability improved meaningfully versus the 2020–2022 period, with 2025 showing solid operating and net margins (~22% and ~10%) and strong revenue growth (~13%). That said, results have been volatile across years (including periods of losses and negative margins), and the revenue base shows large swings (sharp drop from 2021 levels and then a surge into 2025), which reduces confidence in consistency.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Leverage is moderate-to-elevated with debt running above equity in recent years (debt-to-equity ~1.16–1.21 in 2024–2025), though improved from very high leverage in 2020–2021 (>2.0). Equity remains positive and returns on equity are modestly positive (~9–11%) recently, but the balance sheet still carries meaningful debt load that could constrain flexibility if earnings soften.
Cash Flow
73
Positive
Cash generation looks strong and supportive of earnings: operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive across periods shown, and free cash flow tracks closely to net income (roughly ~0.95–0.97 in 2023–2025). 2025 free cash flow growth is strong (~26%), but conversion has not been uniformly strong every year (e.g., 2024 operating cash flow was weaker relative to earnings), indicating some variability in cash realization.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue109.31M25.37M19.08M19.81M51.75M
Gross Profit27.46M18.00M13.80M12.72M33.87M
EBITDA29.53M21.01M14.28M14.64M19.26M
Net Income11.20M9.98M8.28M-44.00M741.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets243.90M246.74M160.75M167.56M425.02M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments20.66M14.74M26.84M17.30M47.58M
Total Debt123.80M127.33M73.22M76.80M258.54M
Total Liabilities137.29M141.18M82.44M85.84M293.13M
Stockholders Equity106.61M105.56M78.31M81.73M131.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow25.79M17.68M16.03M15.45M33.52M
Operating Cash Flow26.75M18.69M16.46M19.16M36.59M
Investing Cash Flow-10.73M-37.98M5.18M16.62M-39.62M
Financing Cash Flow-8.37M4.39M-11.75M-64.07M-6.07M

Evolve Education Group Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
58
Neutral
AU$85.54M11.9117.97%9.92%
56
Neutral
AU$93.08M20.9212.24%12.92%26.16%
52
Neutral
AU$81.87M119.490.87%-1.08%
48
Neutral
AU$29.24M4.70-22.15%1.67%-2.81%-503.02%
45
Neutral
AU$13.92M-4.84-6.74%1.42%86.97%
41
Neutral
AU$13.96M-2.37-111.42%-14.55%70.98%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:EVO
Evolve Education Group Ltd
0.42
-0.25
-37.59%
AU:AKG
Academies Australasia Group Limited
0.11
<0.01
5.00%
AU:CLU
Cluey Ltd
0.03
-0.05
-60.47%
AU:3PL
3P Learning Ltd.
0.30
-0.48
-61.54%
AU:KME
Kip McGrath Education Centres Limited
0.53
0.09
19.64%
AU:NDO
Nido Education Limited
0.41
-0.36
-46.82%

Evolve Education Group Ltd Corporate Events

Embark Finalises Takeover of Mayfield Childcare
Mar 12, 2026

Embark Early Education Limited has completed its off-market takeover offer for Mayfield Childcare Limited, finalising consideration for shareholders who accepted the bid. The deal strengthens Embark’s position in the Australian childcare sector by consolidating assets and integrating Mayfield’s operations into its expanding early education portfolio.

Shareholders in Mayfield who chose scrip consideration received newly issued Embark shares on 11 March 2026, while those electing cash consideration were sent cheques on 12 March 2026. The orderly completion of settlement provides clarity for investors and marks a key milestone in Embark’s growth strategy through acquisition within the listed childcare services space.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Early Education Issues New Shares as Mayfield Takeover Completes
Mar 11, 2026

Embark Early Education Limited, a subsidiary of Evolve Education Group, has issued 179,378 ordinary shares in Mayfield Childcare Limited as scrip consideration under an off‑market takeover bid that closed on 5 March 2026. Following this issuance, a distribution schedule and an updated register of the top 20 shareholders have been prepared, showing J 47 Pty Ltd, J.P. Morgan Nominees Australia and Citicorp Nominees among the largest investors, underscoring the depth of institutional and nominee-holder support in the company’s register.

The new shares and resulting shareholder disclosure reflect the formal completion steps of the Mayfield takeover, signalling progress in integrating the acquired childcare assets into Embark’s platform. This consolidation is likely to strengthen Evolve’s scale in the Australian early education market, with a concentrated top‑20 share register that may enhance trading liquidity and governance oversight for existing and new investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Issues New Shares to Finalise Mayfield Childcare Takeover Scrip
Mar 10, 2026

Embark Early Education has completed the share-based component of its off-market takeover offer for Mayfield Childcare Limited, issuing 179,378 fully paid ordinary shares to Mayfield shareholders who elected to receive scrip consideration. The new EVO shares were issued without a public disclosure document under the Corporations Act, with Embark confirming ongoing compliance with its financial reporting and continuous disclosure obligations and stating that no undisclosed price-sensitive information exists.

The issuance of these shares finalises an important element of Embark’s acquisition of Mayfield, further consolidating its position in the Australian childcare market. By settling part of the takeover in equity rather than cash, Embark preserves balance sheet flexibility while integrating Mayfield investors into its register, aligning stakeholder interests as the combined group pursues scale and operational synergies in the early education sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Early Education Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Shares
Mar 10, 2026

Embark Early Education Limited has applied for quotation of 179,378 new fully paid ordinary shares on the ASX, expanding its listed security base under the EVO ticker. The additional shares, issued as part of previously announced transactions, will modestly increase the company’s free float and could provide incremental liquidity for investors without materially altering its capital structure.

The move reflects ongoing corporate activity as Embark continues to execute on its strategic and transactional plans disclosed earlier to the market. While relatively small in scale, the quotation of these securities underscores the company’s continued engagement with capital markets and may support future growth initiatives in the competitive early education landscape.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Probes Possible Missing Acceptance in Mayfield Takeover Bid
Mar 9, 2026

Embark Early Education has disclosed a potential issue in the reconciliation of shareholder acceptances for its recently closed off-market takeover bid for Mayfield Childcare Limited. The company believes a substantial shareholder’s acceptance may not have been captured before the offer closed on 5 March 2026 and is now investigating the discrepancy.

Embark plans to update the market once the investigation is complete, signalling that the final outcome of the Mayfield bid could be affected by the reconciliation result. The situation introduces some short-term uncertainty for shareholders of both Embark and Mayfield, as any adjustment to recorded acceptances may influence control and ownership levels in the childcare operator.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Early Education Moves Mayfield Takeover Bid to Unconditional Status
Feb 26, 2026

Embark Early Education has confirmed the status of conditions attached to its off‑market takeover bid for all ordinary shares in Mayfield Childcare. The company has waived several key defeating conditions, including the minimum acceptance, ASX Listing Rule requirements, and no prescribed occurrence conditions, leaving only a non‑waivable quotation condition outstanding, as required under the Corporations Act.

With all defeating conditions now either fulfilled or waived, Embark’s offer for Mayfield is effectively unconditional apart from the remaining quotation requirement, which is not classified as a defeating condition. Embark has disclosed that its current voting power in Mayfield stands at 20.45%, signalling early traction in the bid and underscoring its intent to consolidate its position in the childcare sector through this acquisition.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.73 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Makes Takeover Offer for Mayfield Childcare Unconditional
Feb 26, 2026

Embark Early Education Limited has moved to advance its off-market takeover bid for Mayfield Childcare Limited by declaring its offer free from all remaining defeating conditions. The company has waived key conditions, including minimum acceptance, ASX listing rule requirements, and no prescribed occurrences, meaning the offer is now fully unconditional.

With all conditions satisfied or waived, Embark’s bid proceeds on a firm footing, giving Mayfield shareholders certainty that the offer will not lapse for technical reasons. Embark currently holds 20.45% voting power in Mayfield, signalling early traction in its acquisition push and setting the stage for further shifts in ownership and potential consolidation within the childcare sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.73 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Eases Mayfield Takeover Bid by Dropping Key Condition
Feb 25, 2026

Embark Early Education has moved to simplify its off-market takeover bid for Mayfield Childcare Limited by declaring its offer free from the remaining defeating condition tied to prescribed occurrences at Mayfield. The decision removes a key uncertainty around the bid’s completion mechanics and signals Embark’s commitment to proceeding with the acquisition.

As of 25 February 2026, Embark disclosed that it has secured 20.45% voting power in Mayfield, indicating a significant toehold stake in the target. This level of ownership strengthens Embark’s strategic position in the takeover process and may influence negotiations and expectations among Mayfield shareholders and other market participants.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.73 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Early Education Declares AUD 0.015 Dividend for 2025 Period
Feb 24, 2026

Embark Early Education Limited has declared a dividend of AUD 0.015 per ordinary fully paid share for the 12-month period ending 31 December 2025. The distribution will be paid on 23 March 2026, with an ex-dividend date of 3 March and a record date of 4 March, signalling ongoing capital returns to shareholders and highlighting the company’s confidence in its recent financial performance.

The announcement underscores Embark’s capacity to generate sufficient cash flow to support shareholder distributions while continuing to operate in a competitive childcare and early education market. The scheduled payout may enhance the stock’s income appeal for investors and could be interpreted as a sign of operational stability in an environment where early education providers are closely watched for earnings resilience and regulatory exposure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.73 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Early Education lodges updated ASX corporate governance statement
Feb 24, 2026

Embark Early Education Limited has released its updated corporate governance statement for the financial year ended 31 December 2025, confirming compliance with ASX Listing Rules on governance disclosure. The statement, current as of 24 February 2026 and approved by the board, is available on the company’s website and outlines the respective roles of the board and management, as well as key governance structures.

The filing details how Embark aligns with ASX Corporate Governance Council recommendations, including maintaining a board charter and clarifying accountability of the company secretary to the board. Areas where recommendations are not fully followed are flagged to be explained within the corporate governance statement, providing investors and regulators with transparency over the company’s governance framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.73 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Early Education Lifts Revenue and Profit, Maintains Fully Franked Dividends
Feb 24, 2026

Embark Early Education reported a 28.5% rise in revenue to $104.9 million for the year ended 31 December 2025, with profit attributable to owners climbing 18.5% to $10.7 million. The company also improved its net tangible assets per share from a negative to a modest positive position, signalling an enhanced balance sheet for shareholders.

The board maintained a consistent dividend stream, paying fully franked interim and final dividends of 1.5 cents per share relating to the 2024 and 2025 financial years. The accounts were audited with an unmodified opinion, underscoring confidence in the reported figures and providing reassurance to investors about the company’s financial reporting and governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.73 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Eases Conditions on Mayfield Childcare Takeover as Stake Climbs Above 20%
Feb 5, 2026

Embark Early Education has moved a step closer to acquiring Mayfield Childcare, declaring its off-market takeover offer unconditional with respect to the minimum acceptance and ASX Listing Rule requirements conditions. The bid for all fully paid ordinary shares in Mayfield is now only subject to no prescribed occurrences and a quotation condition, with Embark disclosing it has already secured 20.27% voting power in the target, signalling growing momentum behind the transaction for shareholders and the sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.73 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Mayfield Board Urges Shareholders to Reject Embark Early Education Takeover Bid
Jan 20, 2026

Mayfield Childcare Limited has issued a formal Target’s Statement in response to an unsolicited, conditional off‑market takeover offer from Embark Early Education Limited to acquire all ordinary shares in Mayfield. The Mayfield board has unanimously recommended that shareholders reject the Embark offer and advises that shareholders who wish to reject should take no action, while also urging investors to seek independent financial and tax advice given that the document does not account for individual circumstances and includes unverified, publicly sourced information about Embark and standard forward‑looking disclaimers.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.73 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Completes Dispatch of Bidder’s Statement in Mayfield Childcare Takeover Bid
Jan 5, 2026

Embark Early Education Limited has completed the dispatch of its replacement bidder’s statement to shareholders of Mayfield Childcare Limited as part of its off‑market takeover bid for all Mayfield shares it does not already own. The bidder’s statement and accompanying offer, dated 5 January 2026, have been sent electronically or by post to all eligible Mayfield shareholders and performance rights holders recorded on the register as at 19 December 2025, marking the formal commencement of the offer period and advancing Embark’s bid to consolidate its position in the childcare sector by absorbing a rival listed operator.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Early Education Launches Off‑Market Takeover Bid for Mayfield Childcare
Jan 5, 2026

Embark Early Education Limited has launched an off‑market takeover bid for all ordinary shares in Mayfield Childcare Limited, offering Mayfield shareholders a choice between scrip consideration of one Embark share for every 1.24 Mayfield shares or cash consideration of A$0.50 per Mayfield share, with scrip as the default if no election is made. The offer, dated 5 January 2026 and scheduled to close on 5 March 2026 unless extended or withdrawn, signals further consolidation in the Australian childcare sector and, if successful, would expand Embark’s scale and centre network while giving Mayfield investors the option to crystallise value in cash or participate in the combined group’s future growth through Embark shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Issues Replacement Bidder’s Statement for Mayfield Childcare Takeover
Jan 5, 2026

Embark Early Education Limited has issued a replacement bidder’s statement in relation to its off‑market takeover bid for all the ordinary shares in Mayfield Childcare Limited that it does not already own. Under the offer, Mayfield shareholders can choose either scrip consideration of one Embark share for every 1.24 Mayfield shares or a cash alternative of A$0.50 per Mayfield share, with scrip as the default if no election is made; the bid is scheduled to close on 5 March 2026 unless extended or withdrawn, marking a further step in Embark’s move to consolidate its position in the childcare sector by absorbing a rival operator.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 27, 2026