tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Evolve Education Group Ltd (AU:EVO)
ASX:EVO
Australian Market

Evolve Education Group Ltd (EVO) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
15 Followers

Top Page

AU:EVO

Evolve Education Group Ltd

(Sydney:EVO)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.57
▼(-12.00% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is driven by improving financial performance and strong cash generation, with attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by weak technicals (price below key moving averages and negative momentum) and a still-meaningful debt load that adds risk if earnings soften.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Consistent free cash flow that closely tracks net income and strong 2025 FCF growth (~26%) indicates durable cash generation. This underpins dividend capacity, supports debt servicing and reinvestment in centres and training, and reduces short- and medium-term refinancing risk.
Improved margins
Meaningful margin improvement in 2025 (operating ~22%, net ~10%) alongside ~13% revenue growth suggests the business has achieved operational leverage and better pricing or mix. Sustainable higher margins improve resilience to cost inflation and fund strategic initiatives over the medium term.
Business model diversity
Evolve runs ECE centres while also offering teacher education, creating two revenue streams: parent fees/government funding and tuition. This structural diversification and funding linkage provides steadier demand and creates licensing/operational barriers to entry over time.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Balance sheet leverage is moderate-to-elevated (debt above equity). Higher indebtedness limits financial flexibility, increases interest and covenant risk, and amplifies the impact of any earnings downturn, constraining capital allocation choices and strategic optionality in the medium term.
Profitability volatility
The company has experienced profit and margin volatility, including prior loss years. This reduces predictability of earnings and cash flow, complicates budgeting and dividend planning, and raises the probability of stress on covenants or refinancing during adverse conditions.
Revenue base swings
Material swings in revenue (a sharp drop then a surge into 2025) show sensitivity to enrolments, funding settings and staffing. Such structural demand variability can compress margins, disrupt staffing/investment plans, and create recurring forecast risk over the next several months.

Evolve Education Group Ltd (EVO) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Evolve Education Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEmbark Education Limited provides early childhood education (ECE) services in New Zealand and Australia. The company operates and manages ECE centers. It operates 109 ECE centers in New Zealand and 23 ECE centers in Australia under the Lollipops, Active Explorers, Learning Adventures, Little Earth Montessori, Little Lights, Little Wonders, and Pascals brand names. The company was formerly known as Evolve Education Group Limited and changed its name to Embark Education Limited in October 2022. Embark Education Limited was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Auckland, New Zealand.
How the Company Makes Money

Evolve Education Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Profitability has improved with solid 2025 operating (~22%) and net (~10%) margins and ~13% revenue growth, supported by generally strong free cash flow (FCF close to net income; ~26% FCF growth in 2025). Offsetting this are historical volatility (including loss/negative margin years) and a still-leveraged balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~1.16–1.21 recently).
Income Statement
62
Positive
Profitability improved meaningfully versus the 2020–2022 period, with 2025 showing solid operating and net margins (~22% and ~10%) and strong revenue growth (~13%). That said, results have been volatile across years (including periods of losses and negative margins), and the revenue base shows large swings (sharp drop from 2021 levels and then a surge into 2025), which reduces confidence in consistency.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Leverage is moderate-to-elevated with debt running above equity in recent years (debt-to-equity ~1.16–1.21 in 2024–2025), though improved from very high leverage in 2020–2021 (>2.0). Equity remains positive and returns on equity are modestly positive (~9–11%) recently, but the balance sheet still carries meaningful debt load that could constrain flexibility if earnings soften.
Cash Flow
73
Positive
Cash generation looks strong and supportive of earnings: operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive across periods shown, and free cash flow tracks closely to net income (roughly ~0.95–0.97 in 2023–2025). 2025 free cash flow growth is strong (~26%), but conversion has not been uniformly strong every year (e.g., 2024 operating cash flow was weaker relative to earnings), indicating some variability in cash realization.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue109.31M25.37M19.08M19.81M51.75M
Gross Profit27.46M18.00M13.80M12.72M33.87M
EBITDA29.53M21.01M14.28M14.64M19.26M
Net Income11.20M9.98M8.28M-44.00M741.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets243.90M246.74M160.75M167.56M425.02M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments20.66M14.74M26.84M17.30M47.58M
Total Debt123.80M127.33M73.22M76.80M258.54M
Total Liabilities137.29M141.18M82.44M85.84M293.13M
Stockholders Equity106.61M105.56M78.31M81.73M131.88M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow25.79M17.68M16.03M15.45M33.52M
Operating Cash Flow26.75M18.69M16.46M19.16M36.59M
Investing Cash Flow-10.73M-37.98M5.18M16.62M-39.62M
Financing Cash Flow-8.37M4.39M-11.75M-64.07M-6.07M

Evolve Education Group Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
58
Neutral
AU$111.92M10.4812.33%9.92%
56
Neutral
AU$105.57M16.2012.24%12.92%26.16%
53
Neutral
AU$133.72M108.890.15%-1.08%
48
Neutral
AU$30.49M-7.5110.80%1.67%-2.81%-503.02%
45
Neutral
AU$15.91M-14.81-7.51%1.42%86.97%
38
Underperform
AU$21.36M-3.13-126.76%-14.55%70.98%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:EVO
Evolve Education Group Ltd
0.55
-0.18
-24.66%
AU:AKG
Academies Australasia Group Limited
0.12
0.02
20.00%
AU:CLU
Cluey Ltd
0.05
-0.05
-49.51%
AU:3PL
3P Learning Ltd.
0.49
-0.17
-25.76%
AU:KME
Kip McGrath Education Centres Limited
0.55
0.09
19.57%
AU:NDO
Nido Education Limited
0.47
-0.34
-42.09%

Evolve Education Group Ltd Corporate Events

Embark Early Education Moves Mayfield Takeover Bid to Unconditional Status
Feb 26, 2026

Embark Early Education has confirmed the status of conditions attached to its off‑market takeover bid for all ordinary shares in Mayfield Childcare. The company has waived several key defeating conditions, including the minimum acceptance, ASX Listing Rule requirements, and no prescribed occurrence conditions, leaving only a non‑waivable quotation condition outstanding, as required under the Corporations Act.

With all defeating conditions now either fulfilled or waived, Embark’s offer for Mayfield is effectively unconditional apart from the remaining quotation requirement, which is not classified as a defeating condition. Embark has disclosed that its current voting power in Mayfield stands at 20.45%, signalling early traction in the bid and underscoring its intent to consolidate its position in the childcare sector through this acquisition.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.73 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Makes Takeover Offer for Mayfield Childcare Unconditional
Feb 26, 2026

Embark Early Education Limited has moved to advance its off-market takeover bid for Mayfield Childcare Limited by declaring its offer free from all remaining defeating conditions. The company has waived key conditions, including minimum acceptance, ASX listing rule requirements, and no prescribed occurrences, meaning the offer is now fully unconditional.

With all conditions satisfied or waived, Embark’s bid proceeds on a firm footing, giving Mayfield shareholders certainty that the offer will not lapse for technical reasons. Embark currently holds 20.45% voting power in Mayfield, signalling early traction in its acquisition push and setting the stage for further shifts in ownership and potential consolidation within the childcare sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.73 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Eases Mayfield Takeover Bid by Dropping Key Condition
Feb 25, 2026

Embark Early Education has moved to simplify its off-market takeover bid for Mayfield Childcare Limited by declaring its offer free from the remaining defeating condition tied to prescribed occurrences at Mayfield. The decision removes a key uncertainty around the bid’s completion mechanics and signals Embark’s commitment to proceeding with the acquisition.

As of 25 February 2026, Embark disclosed that it has secured 20.45% voting power in Mayfield, indicating a significant toehold stake in the target. This level of ownership strengthens Embark’s strategic position in the takeover process and may influence negotiations and expectations among Mayfield shareholders and other market participants.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.73 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Early Education Declares AUD 0.015 Dividend for 2025 Period
Feb 24, 2026

Embark Early Education Limited has declared a dividend of AUD 0.015 per ordinary fully paid share for the 12-month period ending 31 December 2025. The distribution will be paid on 23 March 2026, with an ex-dividend date of 3 March and a record date of 4 March, signalling ongoing capital returns to shareholders and highlighting the company’s confidence in its recent financial performance.

The announcement underscores Embark’s capacity to generate sufficient cash flow to support shareholder distributions while continuing to operate in a competitive childcare and early education market. The scheduled payout may enhance the stock’s income appeal for investors and could be interpreted as a sign of operational stability in an environment where early education providers are closely watched for earnings resilience and regulatory exposure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.73 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Early Education lodges updated ASX corporate governance statement
Feb 24, 2026

Embark Early Education Limited has released its updated corporate governance statement for the financial year ended 31 December 2025, confirming compliance with ASX Listing Rules on governance disclosure. The statement, current as of 24 February 2026 and approved by the board, is available on the company’s website and outlines the respective roles of the board and management, as well as key governance structures.

The filing details how Embark aligns with ASX Corporate Governance Council recommendations, including maintaining a board charter and clarifying accountability of the company secretary to the board. Areas where recommendations are not fully followed are flagged to be explained within the corporate governance statement, providing investors and regulators with transparency over the company’s governance framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.73 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Early Education Lifts Revenue and Profit, Maintains Fully Franked Dividends
Feb 24, 2026

Embark Early Education reported a 28.5% rise in revenue to $104.9 million for the year ended 31 December 2025, with profit attributable to owners climbing 18.5% to $10.7 million. The company also improved its net tangible assets per share from a negative to a modest positive position, signalling an enhanced balance sheet for shareholders.

The board maintained a consistent dividend stream, paying fully franked interim and final dividends of 1.5 cents per share relating to the 2024 and 2025 financial years. The accounts were audited with an unmodified opinion, underscoring confidence in the reported figures and providing reassurance to investors about the company’s financial reporting and governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.73 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Eases Conditions on Mayfield Childcare Takeover as Stake Climbs Above 20%
Feb 5, 2026

Embark Early Education has moved a step closer to acquiring Mayfield Childcare, declaring its off-market takeover offer unconditional with respect to the minimum acceptance and ASX Listing Rule requirements conditions. The bid for all fully paid ordinary shares in Mayfield is now only subject to no prescribed occurrences and a quotation condition, with Embark disclosing it has already secured 20.27% voting power in the target, signalling growing momentum behind the transaction for shareholders and the sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.73 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Mayfield Board Urges Shareholders to Reject Embark Early Education Takeover Bid
Jan 20, 2026

Mayfield Childcare Limited has issued a formal Target’s Statement in response to an unsolicited, conditional off‑market takeover offer from Embark Early Education Limited to acquire all ordinary shares in Mayfield. The Mayfield board has unanimously recommended that shareholders reject the Embark offer and advises that shareholders who wish to reject should take no action, while also urging investors to seek independent financial and tax advice given that the document does not account for individual circumstances and includes unverified, publicly sourced information about Embark and standard forward‑looking disclaimers.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$0.73 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Completes Dispatch of Bidder’s Statement in Mayfield Childcare Takeover Bid
Jan 5, 2026

Embark Early Education Limited has completed the dispatch of its replacement bidder’s statement to shareholders of Mayfield Childcare Limited as part of its off‑market takeover bid for all Mayfield shares it does not already own. The bidder’s statement and accompanying offer, dated 5 January 2026, have been sent electronically or by post to all eligible Mayfield shareholders and performance rights holders recorded on the register as at 19 December 2025, marking the formal commencement of the offer period and advancing Embark’s bid to consolidate its position in the childcare sector by absorbing a rival listed operator.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Early Education Launches Off‑Market Takeover Bid for Mayfield Childcare
Jan 5, 2026

Embark Early Education Limited has launched an off‑market takeover bid for all ordinary shares in Mayfield Childcare Limited, offering Mayfield shareholders a choice between scrip consideration of one Embark share for every 1.24 Mayfield shares or cash consideration of A$0.50 per Mayfield share, with scrip as the default if no election is made. The offer, dated 5 January 2026 and scheduled to close on 5 March 2026 unless extended or withdrawn, signals further consolidation in the Australian childcare sector and, if successful, would expand Embark’s scale and centre network while giving Mayfield investors the option to crystallise value in cash or participate in the combined group’s future growth through Embark shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Issues Replacement Bidder’s Statement for Mayfield Childcare Takeover
Jan 5, 2026

Embark Early Education Limited has issued a replacement bidder’s statement in relation to its off‑market takeover bid for all the ordinary shares in Mayfield Childcare Limited that it does not already own. Under the offer, Mayfield shareholders can choose either scrip consideration of one Embark share for every 1.24 Mayfield shares or a cash alternative of A$0.50 per Mayfield share, with scrip as the default if no election is made; the bid is scheduled to close on 5 March 2026 unless extended or withdrawn, marking a further step in Embark’s move to consolidate its position in the childcare sector by absorbing a rival operator.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Hold with a A$0.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Early Education Plans Placement of Nearly 61m New Shares
Dec 21, 2025

Embark Early Education Limited has announced a proposed placement of up to 60,895,614 new fully paid ordinary shares, with an expected issue date of 19 March 2026. The capital raising, detailed in its Appendix 3B filing, signals a move to bolster the company’s funding base, which may support future growth initiatives or balance sheet flexibility and could lead to dilution for existing shareholders depending on the final pricing and allocation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$1.09 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Early Education Issues 20 Million New Shares to Sophisticated Investors
Dec 19, 2025

Embark Early Education Limited has issued 20 million fully paid ordinary shares to sophisticated and professional investors, expanding its capital base without a full disclosure document under Australian corporations law. The company confirmed it remains compliant with its financial reporting and continuous disclosure obligations and stated that there is no excluded information requiring disclosure, positioning the new shares to trade freely on the ASX and signalling routine capital management rather than a response to undisclosed events.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$1.09 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Early Education Launches Off‑Market Takeover Bid for Mayfield Childcare
Dec 19, 2025

Embark Early Education Limited has launched an off‑market takeover bid for all ordinary shares in fellow childcare operator Mayfield Childcare Limited, offering Mayfield shareholders a choice between scrip consideration of one Embark share for every 1.24 Mayfield shares or a cash payment of A$0.50 per Mayfield share, with scrip as the default if no election is made. The move signals further consolidation in the early education sector and, if successful, would expand Embark’s footprint and scale in the childcare market, potentially strengthening its competitive position and influencing returns and options available to Mayfield’s existing shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$1.09 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Early Education Seeks ASX Quotation for 20 Million New Shares
Dec 19, 2025

Embark Early Education Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 20 million new fully paid ordinary shares under the ticker EVO, with the securities issued on 19 December 2025. The move increases the company’s quoted share capital and may provide additional funding capacity and liquidity, potentially supporting future growth initiatives and strengthening its position in the competitive early education and childcare market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$1.09 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Early Education Announces Capital Raising and Takeover Bid
Dec 15, 2025

Embark Early Education Limited, operating under the ticker EVO, is involved in the education sector, focusing on early childhood education services. The company has announced a capital raising initiative through the issuance of new shares to professional, sophisticated, and institutional investors. Additionally, Embark is launching an off-market takeover bid for Mayfield Childcare Limited. This strategic move is expected to potentially impact Embark’s operations and market positioning, although the financial and operational implications are subject to various risks and uncertainties.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$1.09 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Early Education Limited Announces Proposed Securities Issue
Dec 15, 2025

Embark Early Education Limited has announced a proposed issue of 20,000,000 ordinary fully paid securities, with a planned issue date of December 19, 2025. This move is part of a placement or other type of issue, as per the ASX Listing Rules, and could potentially impact the company’s capital structure and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$1.09 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Early Education Secures $12 Million for Strategic Expansion
Dec 15, 2025

Embark Early Education Limited has successfully raised $12 million through a placement to professional and sophisticated investors at a price of $0.60 per share, representing a discount to recent trading prices. The funds will be used to support a takeover bid for Mayfield Childcare Limited and cover transaction costs, with strong backing from existing and new investors, enhancing Embark’s strategic positioning in the childcare industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$1.09 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Embark Early Education Initiates Trading Halt for Capital Raising
Dec 12, 2025

Embark Early Education Limited, listed on the ASX under the ticker EVO, has requested a trading halt on its securities pending a significant announcement. The halt is related to a proposed material capital raising, and the company expects to resume trading by December 16, 2025, unless the announcement is made sooner.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVO) stock is a Buy with a A$1.09 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolve Education Group Ltd stock, see the AU:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 27, 2026