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Medibank Private Ltd. (AU:MPL)
ASX:MPL

Medibank Private (MPL) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:MPL

Medibank Private

(Sydney:MPL)

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Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
AU$5.00
▲(14.16% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/19/26
The score is driven mainly by strong financial footing (low leverage and consistently high ROE) and a generally positive earnings call with maintained guidance and dividend growth. Offsetting factors are volatile cash generation, only mixed technical confirmation (still below the 200-day average and slightly negative MACD), and a relatively high P/E despite a supportive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet & high ROE
Low leverage and consistently strong ROE indicate durable capital strength and efficient use of equity. This reduces financial risk, supports dividend policy, provides buffer against underwriting volatility, and preserves capacity to fund strategic investments or raise Tier 2 debt if needed.
Medibank Health revenue and margin momentum
Rapid, higher-margin growth in the health services arm diversifies earnings beyond core insurance underwriting. A scalable, profitable services segment improves overall margin resilience, creates cross‑sell opportunities, and supports long-term earnings if management sustains organic growth and integration.
Primary care scale from Better Medical acquisition
Acquiring Better Medical creates vertical integration and clinical scale that can lower care costs, increase patient retention and enable new revenue streams. The move supports the FY30 Medibank Health earnings aspiration and strengthens structural positioning in primary care delivery.
Negative Factors
Volatile cash generation
Large year-to-year swings in free cash flow undermine confidence in cash conversion and reduce flexibility for reinvestment, dividends and M&A funding. Persistent volatility increases refinancing and liquidity risk if adverse claims or investment returns coincide with weaker cash inflows.
Revenue-mix shift & aggregator pressure
A structural shift toward lower-tier policies and intensified aggregator-driven switching compresses revenue per policy and pricing power. Over time this can erode top-line growth quality and force higher renewal rate inflation or increased marketing spend to stabilise margins.
Claims inflation & hospital utilization weakness
Rising claims expense and volatile hospital utilization create persistent underwriting pressure on margins. If claims inflation outpaces pricing, Medibank must raise premiums, tighten benefits, or absorb margin compression—each posing long-term competitive and regulatory challenges.

Medibank Private (MPL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Medibank Private Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMedibank Private Limited provides private health insurance and health services in Australia. The company operates in two segments, Health Insurance and Medibank Health. The Health Insurance segment provides private health insurance products, including hospital cover that offers members with health cover for hospital treatments; and ancillary cover, which provides members with health cover for healthcare services, such as dental, optical, and physiotherapy. This segment also offers health insurance products to overseas visitors and overseas students. The Medibank Health segment provides health management and in-home care services, as well as a range of telehealth services to government and corporate customers; and distributes travel, life, and pet insurance products. The company underwrites its health insurance products under the Medibank and ahm brands Medibank Private Limited was founded in 1976 and is based in Docklands, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyMedibank Private generates revenue primarily through the sale of health insurance policies to individuals and corporate clients. The company's income is derived from premium payments made by its members for hospital and extras cover, which provide access to a wide range of healthcare services. Additionally, Medibank earns money through its Health Services segment, which offers diversified health solutions such as telehealth, mental health support, and preventative health programs. Medibank also benefits from investment income, as it strategically manages a portfolio of financial assets to ensure liquidity and profitability. Key factors contributing to Medibank's earnings include regulatory policies in the Australian healthcare sector, customer retention strategies, and partnerships with healthcare providers to deliver cost-effective and quality health services.

Medibank Private Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed positive operational momentum and strategic progress: group operating profit rose 6%, Medibank Health delivered strong double-digit revenue and profit growth, policyholder growth improved and the company completed a transformative primary care acquisition while maintaining a strong capital position and lifting the interim dividend. Headwinds exist—expense inflation, a revenue-mix shift toward lower-tier products, elevated claims dynamics in extras, negative hospital utilization (partly COVID-driven), lower investment income and competitive pressure from aggregators—but management presented mitigation plans, unchanged guidance ranges, and clear capacity to invest further in health businesses. Overall, the positives (earnings growth, Medibank Health acceleration, M&A scale, capital strength and customer engagement) outweigh the manageable near-term challenges.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Group earnings growth
Group operating profit increased 6% to $381.7m; underlying EPS (normalizing investment returns) was $0.108 per share, broadly in line with prior year.
Strong Medibank Health momentum
Medibank Health revenue grew 27.5% and segment profit rose 28.5% to $48.3m; operating margin improved to 17.7% (up 10bps); segment delivered strong volume growth across community and acute services and wellbeing.
Primary care scale and strategic M&A
Completed acquisition of Better Medical (cost included $163.5m in capital employed), creating one of the largest primary care networks in Australia (168 clinics) and supporting further organic and inorganic growth in primary care.
Policyholder growth and brand momentum
Resident policyholder numbers increased 1.9% year-on-year (Medibank +0.8%, ahm +4.9%); Medibank grew 0.9% in the last 6 months (more than double prior period growth) and acquisition rate improved to 5.6% (up 40bps).
Customer value and engagement initiatives
Delivered around $105m in out-of-pocket savings to customers, $3.3m saved via no-gap network and $23m earned in Live Better rewards; 55% of Medibank resident policyholders engaged with health and wellbeing services; Amplar Health delivered 70,000 virtual interactions and saved ~100,000 hospital bed days.
Dividend and capital strength
Interim fully franked ordinary dividend of $0.083 per share (up 6.4%); capital position strong at 1.9x PCA and capital ratio of 13.8% of premium revenue (above target range, with capacity to fund further growth and raise Tier 2 if needed).
Nonresident performance
Nonresident gross profit increased 6.9% to $55.6m and gross margin rose 80bps to 35.6%, supported by improved worker margin and targeted growth in student and worker segments.
Productivity and reduced one-off cyber costs
Delivered $3m of productivity savings in the period; nonrecurring cyber costs were lower with FY '26 expected cyber program cost around $35m and program largely embedded.
Negative Updates
Higher operating expenses and reinvestment
Operating expenses increased 5.4% to $329.4m; expense ratio was 7.7% (up 10bps). FY '26 expense guidance is $690m–$695m, reflecting inflation, volume impacts and continued investment (partially offset by targeted productivity savings).
Revenue mix headwind from lower-tier product growth and Live Better investment
Revenue mix impact was ~150bps (similar to 2H'25) driven by growth skewed to lower-tier products and investment in Live Better; revenue per policy unit growth was down ~30bps, pressuring headline revenue despite policyholder growth.
Claims inflation and hospital utilization dynamics
Resident claims expense increased 4.9%; resident claims growth per policy unit was 2.5% (including a 20bps increase) with a 310bps rise in extras partially offset by a 120bps decrease in hospital; hospital utilization showed negative growth (utilization contraction ~2.8% with roughly half attributed to a COVID-related prior-period tailwind).
Investment income pressure
Investment income down $19.6m driven by lower RBA cash rate and weaker returns across growth and defensive portfolios; underlying net investment return decreased 26bps to 2.74%, and underlying net investment income was down ~$11m.
Nonresident (student) volatility and lower policy unit growth
Nonresident policy unit growth was modest at 1.4%; student policy counts contracted (natural graduations after high post-COVID origination years) and lapses affected student portfolio, creating near-term headwinds though worker segment remains growth opportunity.
Increased competitive pressure and aggregator activity
Cost-of-living pressures and heightened aggregator practices are increasing switching and joining behaviors; industry switching rose and consumer mix shifted to lower levels of cover, challenging revenue per policy and long‑term pricing dynamics.
Timing benefit in risk equalization
Risk equalization provided a ~50bps benefit to net claims growth in the period, but management noted some of this is timing related and may unwind in 2H, creating uncertainty in near-term claims outcomes.
Acquisition funding impact on capital allocation
Better Medical acquisition was funded from unallocated capital (impacting capital position and reducing available cash holdings), and M&A and integration costs increased other income/expense items in the half.
Company Guidance
Medibank kept FY‑26 guidance largely unchanged: resident claims per policy unit growth of 2.6–2.9% and an expectation that 1H revenue‑mix headwind (~150bps) will be better for the full year; group operating expenses of $690–695m for FY‑26 (including $10m of productivity savings) and non‑recurring cyber/IT security costs of ~ $35m; Medibank Health organic operating profit to grow in FY‑26 broadly in line with 1H26 plus ~A$6m from the Better Medical acquisition in 2H, with a FY‑30 Medibank Health earnings aspiration of at least A$200m and capacity to raise Tier‑2 debt; capital remains strong at 1.9x PCA and a 13.8% capital ratio (above the 10–12% target while holding capital against a A$250m APRA adjustment); interim dividend A$0.083 per share (up 6.4%, 76.8% payout of underlying NPAT); underlying EPS A$0.108 and underlying net investment return 2.74% (annualized spread to RBA cash rate 184bps).

Medibank Private Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Overall fundamentals are solid: a conservative balance sheet (very low leverage, strong ~20%+ ROE) supports financial resilience. Revenue growth accelerated sharply in 2025, but profitability is only stable (mid-single-digit margins, slightly softer in 2025). Cash flow is the main weakness due to notable volatility and a sharp drop in 2025.
Income Statement
74
Positive
Revenue has grown steadily from 2020 to 2025, with a sharp acceleration in 2025 (+265% vs 2024), suggesting a step-change year. Profitability is solid but not expanding: net margin has generally held in the mid-single digits and dipped slightly in 2025 versus 2024. Earnings quality is somewhat mixed given volatility in operating profitability across the period (including unusual margin readings in 2020–2021), but recent years show more consistent performance.
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
The balance sheet looks conservative with low leverage: debt-to-equity remains under 0.10 in recent years (2025: ~0.09), and equity has gradually increased over time. Returns on equity are consistently strong (roughly ~20%+ across 2022–2025), indicating efficient capital use. Overall financial risk appears contained, with the main watch item being the uptick in debt versus 2022–2023 (though still modest).
Cash Flow
61
Positive
Free cash flow has generally tracked net income well (free cash flow close to net income across the years), supporting earnings quality. However, cash generation is volatile: free cash flow declined materially in 2025 (about -40% year over year) and operating cash flow also dropped sharply versus 2024. While cash conversion remains decent on a net income basis, the year-to-year swings reduce confidence in near-term cash flow stability.
BreakdownTTMJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue8.76B8.56B8.02B7.40B7.09B6.98B
Gross Profit8.76B8.56B8.02B7.40B7.10B7.03B
EBITDA694.60M750.80M806.50M520.60M635.10M715.00M
Net Income463.40M500.80M492.50M511.10M393.90M441.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.26B4.70B4.69B4.39B4.55B3.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments453.30M0.00927.90M695.10M831.30M671.70M
Total Debt481.30M209.00M218.30M55.30M76.90M93.40M
Total Liabilities1.92B2.36B2.38B2.30B2.61B2.02B
Stockholders Equity2.35B2.34B2.31B2.08B1.95B1.91B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow343.30M369.70M810.90M216.30M927.60M463.10M
Operating Cash Flow355.90M380.90M868.50M258.20M962.70M498.20M
Investing Cash Flow136.70M110.50M-110.80M-15.20M-637.80M-322.10M
Financing Cash Flow-559.30M-533.80M-487.30M-419.10M-399.90M-375.80M

Medibank Private Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price4.38
Price Trends
50DMA
4.56
Negative
100DMA
4.63
Negative
200DMA
4.71
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.05
Positive
RSI
42.95
Neutral
STOCH
3.33
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:MPL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.45, below the 50-day MA of 4.56, and below the 200-day MA of 4.71, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.33 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:MPL.

Medibank Private Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
AU$32.81B9.9218.97%4.68%5.93%14.80%
72
Outperform
AU$3.12B15.6218.51%4.17%5.90%7.22%
69
Neutral
$12.06B26.0221.28%3.73%6.37%1.73%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
65
Neutral
$15.84B16.0412.51%26.88%-0.54%26.37%
63
Neutral
AU$15.75B14.4819.09%3.91%8.47%54.09%
60
Neutral
€3.30B15.6411.17%2.95%10.98%23.05%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:MPL
Medibank Private
4.38
0.20
4.73%
AU:AUB
AUB Group
25.34
-5.08
-16.69%
AU:IAG
Insurance Australia Group Limited
6.66
-0.89
-11.82%
AU:NHF
NIB Holdings Ltd
6.41
-0.07
-1.05%
AU:QBE
QBE Insurance Group Limited
21.73
0.79
3.76%
AU:SUN
Suncorp Group
14.63
-4.36
-22.96%

Medibank Private Corporate Events

Medibank outlines parameters and limits of half-year investor presentation
Feb 19, 2026

Medibank Private has released a half-year investor presentation for the period ended 31 December 2025, outlining general information on its operations, financial reporting framework and disclosure practices. The document emphasises that the material is a high-level summary to be read alongside formal ASX filings and that figures are in Australian dollars and subject to rounding.

The release stresses extensive disclaimers on forward-looking statements, highlighting that expectations are subject to economic, regulatory and market risks, and may differ materially from actual results. It also clarifies that the presentation does not constitute financial advice or an offer of securities, underscoring the need for investors to seek independent advice and observe jurisdictional restrictions on distribution.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MPL) stock is a Hold with a A$5.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medibank Private stock, see the AU:MPL Stock Forecast page.

Medibank lifts profit and dividend as health services push accelerates
Feb 19, 2026

Medibank Private reported a solid first-half 2026 result driven by stronger customer engagement, with net resident policyholders up 1.9% to 38,300 over 12 months and non-resident policy units up 0.4%. The group paid $3.5 billion in claims, delivered $130.7 million in customer value and saw 55% of resident policyholders engage with its health and wellbeing services, while its Live Better rewards program surpassed 1 million members.

Group operating profit rose 6.0% to $381.7 million, supported by a 3.5% lift in health insurance profit and a 28.5% increase in Medibank Health segment profit, though underlying NPAT edged down 0.3% to $297.8 million amid lower investment income and ongoing cyber-related costs. The company increased its fully franked interim dividend by 6.4% to 8.3 cents per share and continued to diversify into primary care with the acquisition of Better Medical, reinforcing its strategy to lead a shift toward prevention and early intervention in an Australian health system under growing strain.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MPL) stock is a Hold with a A$5.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medibank Private stock, see the AU:MPL Stock Forecast page.

Medibank Private Announces Interim Dividend for Half-Year to December 2025
Feb 19, 2026

Medibank Private has declared an ordinary interim dividend of AUD 0.083 per fully paid share for the six-month period ended 31 December 2025. The dividend will trade ex-dividend on 26 February 2026, with a record date of 27 February 2026 and payment scheduled for 18 March 2026, signalling ongoing capital returns to shareholders in line with its regular distribution timetable.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MPL) stock is a Hold with a A$5.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medibank Private stock, see the AU:MPL Stock Forecast page.

Medibank Lifts Revenue but Profit and Asset Backing Ease in First Half
Feb 19, 2026

Medibank Private has reported its financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2025, showing a 5.5% increase in revenue from ordinary activities to $4.50 billion, driven by 4.4% growth in health insurance revenue and a 32.3% rise in other operating revenue. Despite the top-line growth, profit after tax attributable to equity holders declined 11% to $302.9 million and net tangible assets per share fell to 54.7 cents from 65.3 cents, though the board maintained shareholder returns by declaring a fully franked interim dividend of 8.30 cents per share, payable in March 2026.

The company also noted that a fully franked final dividend of 10.20 cents per share had been paid in October 2025 for the prior half year, underscoring its ongoing capital return policy. The combination of higher revenues but lower profit and reduced net tangible assets per share suggests margin or cost pressures within the business, even as Medibank continues to leverage its health insurance portfolio and related services to support shareholder distributions and maintain its position in the Australian private health insurance market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MPL) stock is a Hold with a A$5.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medibank Private stock, see the AU:MPL Stock Forecast page.

Medibank Announces Retirement of Non-Executive Director Jay Weatherill
Jan 5, 2026

Medibank has announced the retirement of The Hon Jay Weatherill AO as a non-executive director, effective 31 December 2025, and has lodged a Final Director’s Interest Notice with the ASX in accordance with listing requirements. The filing confirms that Weatherill held no Medibank securities in his own name at the time of ceasing to be a director, indicating no direct equity stake remains tied to his tenure and signalling a clean governance transition for the board and its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MPL) stock is a Buy with a A$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medibank Private stock, see the AU:MPL Stock Forecast page.

Medibank Performance Rights Lapse After Vesting Conditions Not Met
Jan 5, 2026

Medibank Private Limited has notified the ASX of the cessation of 152,254 performance rights (security code MPLAA) as of 31 December 2025, after the conditional rights lapsed because their vesting conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The lapse of these performance rights effectively reduces the pool of potential future equity issuance under this particular incentive arrangement, which may marginally impact dilution expectations for existing shareholders but does not alter the company’s current issued capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MPL) stock is a Buy with a A$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medibank Private stock, see the AU:MPL Stock Forecast page.

Medibank Clarifies Technical Change to CEO David Koczkar’s Securities Interests
Dec 28, 2025

Medibank has announced a change in the recording of director David Koczkar’s interests in company securities, clarifying that while the entities through which his holdings are held have changed, the total number of Medibank securities in which he has a direct and indirect interest remains unchanged from the disclosure lodged on 19 December 2025. The update is a technical adjustment to the register of interests rather than a change in Koczkar’s overall economic exposure to Medibank, and reflects the company’s ongoing compliance with ASX disclosure requirements and corporate governance obligations, with no direct operational or strategic impact indicated for shareholders or other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MPL) stock is a Hold with a A$5.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medibank Private stock, see the AU:MPL Stock Forecast page.

Medibank Issues Over 3.2 Million Unquoted Performance Rights Under Employee Scheme
Dec 19, 2025

Medibank Private Limited has notified the market of the issue of 3,230,852 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme. These performance rights, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, were issued on 12 December 2025 and reflect the company’s ongoing use of equity-based incentives to align employee remuneration with long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MPL) stock is a Hold with a A$5.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medibank Private stock, see the AU:MPL Stock Forecast page.

Medibank Announces Key Dates for FY26 Half-Year Results and Dividend Payments
Dec 11, 2025

Medibank Private Limited has announced key dates for the first half of the fiscal year 2026, including the release of its half-year results on February 19, 2026. The company will host a teleconference and webcast briefing for investors and analysts on the same day, led by CEO David Koczkar and CFO Mark Rogers. Additionally, Medibank has scheduled its interim dividend payment dates, with the ex-dividend date set for February 26, 2026, and the payment date on March 18, 2026. These announcements are crucial for stakeholders as they provide insights into the company’s financial performance and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MPL) stock is a Hold with a A$5.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medibank Private stock, see the AU:MPL Stock Forecast page.

Medibank Appoints New Non-Executive Directors to Strengthen Governance
Nov 26, 2025

Medibank Private Limited has announced the appointment of Jacqueline Hey and Dr. Lisa McIntyre as non-executive directors, effective from November 19, 2025. This strategic addition to the board is expected to enhance the company’s governance and potentially strengthen its market position, reflecting Medibank’s commitment to robust leadership and strategic oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MPL) stock is a Buy with a A$5.84 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medibank Private stock, see the AU:MPL Stock Forecast page.

Medibank Private Secures Strong Shareholder Support at 2025 AGM
Nov 19, 2025

Medibank Private Limited successfully held its 2025 Annual General Meeting, where all resolutions from 2 to 7 were passed as ordinary resolutions by poll. The re-election of directors Kathryn Fagg AC and Peter Everingham, along with the election of Dr. Lisa McIntyre and Jacqueline Hey, were approved, reflecting strong shareholder support. Additionally, the adoption of the remuneration report and the grant of performance rights to the CEO were also sanctioned, indicating confidence in the company’s leadership and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MPL) stock is a Buy with a A$5.84 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medibank Private stock, see the AU:MPL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 19, 2026