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Medibank Private Ltd. (AU:MPL)
ASX:MPL

Medibank Private (MPL) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:MPL

Medibank Private

(Sydney:MPL)

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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
AU$5.50
â–˛(15.79% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by strong financial health (low leverage and high ROE) and steady multi-year revenue growth, tempered by meaningful cash flow volatility in 2025. Technicals add moderate support with mildly positive momentum, while valuation is a headwind due to a higher P/E despite an attractive dividend yield.

Medibank Private (MPL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Medibank Private Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMedibank Private Limited provides private health insurance and health services in Australia. The company operates in two segments, Health Insurance and Medibank Health. The Health Insurance segment provides private health insurance products, including hospital cover that offers members with health cover for hospital treatments; and ancillary cover, which provides members with health cover for healthcare services, such as dental, optical, and physiotherapy. This segment also offers health insurance products to overseas visitors and overseas students. The Medibank Health segment provides health management and in-home care services, as well as a range of telehealth services to government and corporate customers; and distributes travel, life, and pet insurance products. The company underwrites its health insurance products under the Medibank and ahm brands Medibank Private Limited was founded in 1976 and is based in Docklands, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyMedibank Private generates revenue primarily through the sale of health insurance policies to individuals and corporate clients. The company's income is derived from premium payments made by its members for hospital and extras cover, which provide access to a wide range of healthcare services. Additionally, Medibank earns money through its Health Services segment, which offers diversified health solutions such as telehealth, mental health support, and preventative health programs. Medibank also benefits from investment income, as it strategically manages a portfolio of financial assets to ensure liquidity and profitability. Key factors contributing to Medibank's earnings include regulatory policies in the Australian healthcare sector, customer retention strategies, and partnerships with healthcare providers to deliver cost-effective and quality health services.

Medibank Private Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Medibank Private Ltd. demonstrates a solid financial performance with strong revenue growth and profitability, despite challenges in operational efficiency. The balance sheet is robust with low leverage and efficient equity utilization, while cash flow generation shows significant improvement. The company is well-positioned to leverage its financial stability for future growth, though attention to operating expenses is advised.
Income Statement
Medibank Private Ltd. shows consistent revenue growth with a 7.52% increase in the latest year. The gross profit margin remains strong at 100%, indicating effective cost management. However, the decline in EBIT margin from 9.79% to 0.09% and net profit margin from 6.85% to 6.14% suggests pressure on operational efficiency. Despite these challenges, the company's EBITDA margin improved significantly, reflecting better underlying profitability.
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 49.21%. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.09, indicating low financial leverage, and ROE is solid at 21.37%, showing effective utilization of equity. Overall, the balance sheet reflects stability and a conservative financial structure, minimizing potential risk from debt.
Cash Flow
Medibank's free cash flow grew substantially by 274.7%, highlighting improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 1.76, indicating strong cash conversion. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.65 suggests a potential need to optimize capital expenditures to maintain this positive trend.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue8.56B8.56B8.02B7.40B7.09B6.98B
Gross Profit8.56B8.56B8.02B7.40B7.10B7.03B
EBITDA746.80M750.80M806.50M520.60M635.10M715.00M
Net Income500.80M500.80M492.50M511.10M393.90M441.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.70B4.70B4.69B4.39B4.55B3.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments0.000.00927.90M695.10M831.30M671.70M
Total Debt209.00M209.00M218.30M55.30M76.90M93.40M
Total Liabilities2.36B2.36B2.38B2.30B2.61B2.02B
Stockholders Equity2.34B2.34B2.31B2.08B1.95B1.91B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow369.70M369.70M810.90M216.30M927.60M463.10M
Operating Cash Flow380.90M380.90M868.50M258.20M962.70M498.20M
Investing Cash Flow-22.70M110.50M-110.80M-15.20M-637.80M-322.10M
Financing Cash Flow-533.80M-533.80M-487.30M-419.10M-399.90M-375.80M

Medibank Private Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price4.75
Price Trends
50DMA
4.78
Negative
100DMA
4.82
Negative
200DMA
4.78
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
<0.01
Negative
RSI
49.25
Neutral
STOCH
62.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:MPL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.76, below the 50-day MA of 4.78, and below the 200-day MA of 4.78, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:MPL.

Medibank Private Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
AU$3.28B16.4518.51%4.17%5.90%7.22%
71
Outperform
AU$13.08B26.1321.28%3.73%6.37%1.73%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
66
Neutral
AU$29.84B9.9318.97%4.68%5.93%14.80%
65
Neutral
AU$18.50B12.3112.51%26.88%-0.54%26.37%
63
Neutral
AU$18.28B13.3819.09%3.91%8.47%54.09%
60
Neutral
AU$3.63B19.9911.17%2.95%10.98%23.05%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:MPL
Medibank Private
4.75
1.10
30.28%
AU:AUB
AUB Group
30.87
1.36
4.60%
AU:IAG
Insurance Australia Group Limited
7.69
-0.45
-5.55%
AU:NHF
NIB Holdings Ltd
6.76
1.44
27.16%
AU:QBE
QBE Insurance Group Limited
19.87
1.27
6.84%
AU:SUN
Suncorp Group
17.26
-0.89
-4.93%

Medibank Private Corporate Events

Medibank Announces Retirement of Non-Executive Director Jay Weatherill
Jan 5, 2026

Medibank has announced the retirement of The Hon Jay Weatherill AO as a non-executive director, effective 31 December 2025, and has lodged a Final Director’s Interest Notice with the ASX in accordance with listing requirements. The filing confirms that Weatherill held no Medibank securities in his own name at the time of ceasing to be a director, indicating no direct equity stake remains tied to his tenure and signalling a clean governance transition for the board and its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MPL) stock is a Buy with a A$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medibank Private stock, see the AU:MPL Stock Forecast page.

Medibank Performance Rights Lapse After Vesting Conditions Not Met
Jan 5, 2026

Medibank Private Limited has notified the ASX of the cessation of 152,254 performance rights (security code MPLAA) as of 31 December 2025, after the conditional rights lapsed because their vesting conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The lapse of these performance rights effectively reduces the pool of potential future equity issuance under this particular incentive arrangement, which may marginally impact dilution expectations for existing shareholders but does not alter the company’s current issued capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MPL) stock is a Buy with a A$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medibank Private stock, see the AU:MPL Stock Forecast page.

Medibank Clarifies Technical Change to CEO David Koczkar’s Securities Interests
Dec 28, 2025

Medibank has announced a change in the recording of director David Koczkar’s interests in company securities, clarifying that while the entities through which his holdings are held have changed, the total number of Medibank securities in which he has a direct and indirect interest remains unchanged from the disclosure lodged on 19 December 2025. The update is a technical adjustment to the register of interests rather than a change in Koczkar’s overall economic exposure to Medibank, and reflects the company’s ongoing compliance with ASX disclosure requirements and corporate governance obligations, with no direct operational or strategic impact indicated for shareholders or other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MPL) stock is a Hold with a A$5.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medibank Private stock, see the AU:MPL Stock Forecast page.

Medibank Issues Over 3.2 Million Unquoted Performance Rights Under Employee Scheme
Dec 19, 2025

Medibank Private Limited has notified the market of the issue of 3,230,852 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme. These performance rights, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, were issued on 12 December 2025 and reflect the company’s ongoing use of equity-based incentives to align employee remuneration with long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MPL) stock is a Hold with a A$5.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medibank Private stock, see the AU:MPL Stock Forecast page.

Medibank Announces Key Dates for FY26 Half-Year Results and Dividend Payments
Dec 11, 2025

Medibank Private Limited has announced key dates for the first half of the fiscal year 2026, including the release of its half-year results on February 19, 2026. The company will host a teleconference and webcast briefing for investors and analysts on the same day, led by CEO David Koczkar and CFO Mark Rogers. Additionally, Medibank has scheduled its interim dividend payment dates, with the ex-dividend date set for February 26, 2026, and the payment date on March 18, 2026. These announcements are crucial for stakeholders as they provide insights into the company’s financial performance and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MPL) stock is a Hold with a A$5.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medibank Private stock, see the AU:MPL Stock Forecast page.

Medibank Appoints New Non-Executive Directors to Strengthen Governance
Nov 26, 2025

Medibank Private Limited has announced the appointment of Jacqueline Hey and Dr. Lisa McIntyre as non-executive directors, effective from November 19, 2025. This strategic addition to the board is expected to enhance the company’s governance and potentially strengthen its market position, reflecting Medibank’s commitment to robust leadership and strategic oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MPL) stock is a Buy with a A$5.84 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medibank Private stock, see the AU:MPL Stock Forecast page.

Medibank Private Secures Strong Shareholder Support at 2025 AGM
Nov 19, 2025

Medibank Private Limited successfully held its 2025 Annual General Meeting, where all resolutions from 2 to 7 were passed as ordinary resolutions by poll. The re-election of directors Kathryn Fagg AC and Peter Everingham, along with the election of Dr. Lisa McIntyre and Jacqueline Hey, were approved, reflecting strong shareholder support. Additionally, the adoption of the remuneration report and the grant of performance rights to the CEO were also sanctioned, indicating confidence in the company’s leadership and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MPL) stock is a Buy with a A$5.84 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medibank Private stock, see the AU:MPL Stock Forecast page.

Jay Weatherill to Retire from Medibank Board
Nov 12, 2025

Medibank Private Limited has announced the retirement of non-executive director The Hon Jay Weatherill AO from its board, effective 31 December 2025. Weatherill’s departure follows his recent appointment as the Australian High Commissioner to the United Kingdom. His tenure on the board, which began in March 2024, included roles on the Audit Committee and Risk Management Committee. Medibank’s Chair, Mike Wilkins, expressed gratitude for Weatherill’s contributions, particularly his expertise in public policy and reform, which significantly impacted the board’s work.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MPL) stock is a Hold with a A$5.35 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medibank Private stock, see the AU:MPL Stock Forecast page.

Medibank Expands Primary Care with Better Medical Acquisition
Nov 4, 2025

Medibank has announced the acquisition of Better Medical, a network of 61 GP and medical clinics, for approximately $159 million. This strategic move is part of Medibank’s broader effort to enhance primary care services and support preventive health measures, addressing the growing need for investment in the healthcare system. The acquisition aligns with Medibank’s strategy to expand its health segment and is expected to contribute to its financial goals, with Better Medical anticipated to deliver significant EBITDA by mid-2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MPL) stock is a Hold with a A$5.35 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medibank Private stock, see the AU:MPL Stock Forecast page.

Medibank Sets Ambitious Growth Targets in Health Sector
Oct 28, 2025

Medibank Private Limited has announced its long-term ambitions to accelerate growth as a health company, aiming to significantly increase earnings in its health segment and expand its policyholder market share by FY30. The company is focusing on four key health segments—wellbeing, primary care, community and acute care, and health insurance—to deliver greater value and drive long-term growth. CEO David Koczkar highlighted the need for a shift in the healthcare system towards prevention, community-based care, and digital health solutions, emphasizing Medibank’s role in this transition and its commitment to investing in technology and partnerships to meet evolving community needs.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MPL) stock is a Hold with a A$5.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Medibank Private stock, see the AU:MPL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 04, 2026