Medibank Private Ltd. (AU:MPL)
ASX:MPL
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Medibank Private
(Sydney:MPL)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
AU$5.00
â–˛(10.62% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/19/26
The score is driven mainly by strong financial footing (low leverage and consistently high ROE) and a generally positive earnings call with maintained guidance and dividend growth. Offsetting factors are volatile cash generation, only mixed technical confirmation (still below the 200-day average and slightly negative MACD), and a relatively high P/E despite a supportive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet & high ROE
Low leverage and consistently strong ROE indicate durable capital strength and efficient use of equity. This reduces financial risk, supports dividend policy, provides buffer against underwriting volatility, and preserves capacity to fund strategic investments or raise Tier 2 debt if needed.
Negative Factors
Volatile cash generation
Large year-to-year swings in free cash flow undermine confidence in cash conversion and reduce flexibility for reinvestment, dividends and M&A funding. Persistent volatility increases refinancing and liquidity risk if adverse claims or investment returns coincide with weaker cash inflows.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet & high ROE
Low leverage and consistently strong ROE indicate durable capital strength and efficient use of equity. This reduces financial risk, supports dividend policy, provides buffer against underwriting volatility, and preserves capacity to fund strategic investments or raise Tier 2 debt if needed.
Read all positive factors
Medibank Private (MPL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$12.45B
Dividend Yield3.73%
Average Volume (3M)5.96M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.9
Beta (1Y)0.30
Revenue Growth6.37%
EPS Growth1.73%
CountryAU
Employees3,220
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.11
Shares Outstanding2,754,003,200
10 Day Avg. Volume5,399,409
30 Day Avg. Volume5,964,521
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.00
Price to Book (P/B)5.95
Price to Sales (P/S)1.63
P/FCF Ratio37.62
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$5.04Price Target Upside11.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$9.12B
Medibank Private Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Medibank Private Limited provides private health insurance and health services in Australia. The company operates in two segments, Health Insurance and Medibank Health. The Health Insurance segment provides private health insurance products, inclu...
How the Company Makes Money
Medibank Private generates revenue primarily through the sale of health insurance policies to individuals and corporate clients. The company's income is derived from premium payments made by its members for hospital and extras cover, which provide...
Medibank Private Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed positive operational momentum and strategic progress: group operating profit rose 6%, Medibank Health delivered strong double-digit revenue and profit growth, policyholder growth improved and the company completed a transformative primary care acquisition while maintaining a strong capital position and lifting the interim dividend. Headwinds exist—expense inflation, a revenue-mix shift toward lower-tier products, elevated claims dynamics in extras, negative hospital utilization (partly COVID-driven), lower investment income and competitive pressure from aggregators—but management presented mitigation plans, unchanged guidance ranges, and clear capacity to invest further in health businesses. Overall, the positives (earnings growth, Medibank Health acceleration, M&A scale, capital strength and customer engagement) outweigh the manageable near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Group earnings growth
Group operating profit increased 6% to $381.7m; underlying EPS (normalizing investment returns) was $0.108 per share, broadly in line with prior year.
Negative Updates
Higher operating expenses and reinvestment
Operating expenses increased 5.4% to $329.4m; expense ratio was 7.7% (up 10bps). FY '26 expense guidance is $690m–$695m, reflecting inflation, volume impacts and continued investment (partially offset by targeted productivity savings).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group earnings growth
Group operating profit increased 6% to $381.7m; underlying EPS (normalizing investment returns) was $0.108 per share, broadly in line with prior year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Medibank kept FY‑26 guidance largely unchanged: resident claims per policy unit growth of 2.6–2.9% and an expectation that 1H revenue‑mix headwind (~150bps) will be better for the full year; group operating expenses of $690–695m for FY‑26 (including $10m of productivity savings) and non‑recurring cyber/IT security costs of ~ $35m; Medibank Health organic operating profit to grow in FY‑26 broadly in line with 1H26 plus ~A$6m from the Better Medical acquisition in 2H, with a FY‑30 Medibank Health earnings aspiration of at least A$200m and capacity to raise Tier‑2 debt; capital remains strong at 1.9x PCA and a 13.8% capital ratio (above the 10–12% target while holding capital against a A$250m APRA adjustment); interim dividend A$0.083 per share (up 6.4%, 76.8% payout of underlying NPAT); underlying EPS A$0.108 and underlying net investment return 2.74% (annualized spread to RBA cash rate 184bps).Medibank Private Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.76B | 8.56B | 8.02B | 7.40B | 7.09B | 6.98B |
| Gross Profit | 8.76B | 8.56B | 8.02B | 7.40B | 7.10B | 7.03B |
| EBITDA | 694.60M | 750.80M | 806.50M | 520.60M | 635.10M | 715.00M |
| Net Income | 463.40M | 500.80M | 492.50M | 511.10M | 393.90M | 441.20M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.26B | 4.70B | 4.69B | 4.39B | 4.55B | 3.92B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 453.30M | 0.00 | 927.90M | 695.10M | 831.30M | 671.70M |
| Total Debt | 481.30M | 209.00M | 218.30M | 55.30M | 76.90M | 93.40M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.92B | 2.36B | 2.38B | 2.30B | 2.61B | 2.02B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.35B | 2.34B | 2.31B | 2.08B | 1.95B | 1.91B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 343.30M | 369.70M | 810.90M | 216.30M | 927.60M | 463.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 355.90M | 380.90M | 868.50M | 258.20M | 962.70M | 498.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 136.70M | 110.50M | -110.80M | -15.20M | -637.80M | -322.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -559.30M | -533.80M | -487.30M | -419.10M | -399.90M | -375.80M |
Medibank Private Technical Analysis
Positive
4.52
Price Trends
4.39
Positive
4.51
Positive
4.66
Negative
Market Momentum
0.04
Negative
61.32
Neutral
91.34
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:MPL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.38, above the 50-day MA of 4.39, and below the 200-day MA of 4.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.34 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:MPL.
Medibank Private Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
AU:MPL
Medibank Private
4.52
0.27
6.43%
AU:NHF
NIB Holdings Ltd
6.61
0.11
1.61%
Medibank Private Corporate Events
Medibank outlines parameters and limits of half-year investor presentation
Feb 19, 2026
Medibank Private has released a half-year investor presentation for the period ended 31 December 2025, outlining general information on its operations, financial reporting framework and disclosure practices. The document emphasises that the materi...
Medibank lifts profit and dividend as health services push accelerates
Feb 19, 2026
Medibank Private reported a solid first-half 2026 result driven by stronger customer engagement, with net resident policyholders up 1.9% to 38,300 over 12 months and non-resident policy units up 0.4%. The group paid $3.5 billion in claims, deliver...
Medibank Private Announces Interim Dividend for Half-Year to December 2025
Feb 19, 2026
Medibank Private has declared an ordinary interim dividend of AUD 0.083 per fully paid share for the six-month period ended 31 December 2025. The dividend will trade ex-dividend on 26 February 2026, with a record date of 27 February 2026 and payme...
Medibank Lifts Revenue but Profit and Asset Backing Ease in First Half
Feb 19, 2026
Medibank Private has reported its financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2025, showing a 5.5% increase in revenue from ordinary activities to $4.50 billion, driven by 4.4% growth in health insurance revenue and a 32.3% rise in other...
Medibank Announces Retirement of Non-Executive Director Jay Weatherill
Jan 5, 2026
Medibank has announced the retirement of The Hon Jay Weatherill AO as a non-executive director, effective 31 December 2025, and has lodged a Final Director’s Interest Notice with the ASX in accordance with listing requirements. The filing co...
Medibank Performance Rights Lapse After Vesting Conditions Not Met
Jan 5, 2026
Medibank Private Limited has notified the ASX of the cessation of 152,254 performance rights (security code MPLAA) as of 31 December 2025, after the conditional rights lapsed because their vesting conditions were not met or became incapable of bei...
Medibank Clarifies Technical Change to CEO David Koczkar’s Securities Interests
Dec 28, 2025
Medibank has announced a change in the recording of director David Koczkar’s interests in company securities, clarifying that while the entities through which his holdings are held have changed, the total number of Medibank securities in whi...
Medibank Issues Over 3.2 Million Unquoted Performance Rights Under Employee Scheme
Dec 19, 2025
Medibank Private Limited has notified the market of the issue of 3,230,852 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme. These performance rights, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, were issued on 12 December 2025 a...
Medibank Announces Key Dates for FY26 Half-Year Results and Dividend Payments
Dec 11, 2025
Medibank Private Limited has announced key dates for the first half of the fiscal year 2026, including the release of its half-year results on February 19, 2026. The company will host a teleconference and webcast briefing for investors and analyst...
Medibank Appoints New Non-Executive Directors to Strengthen Governance
Nov 26, 2025
Medibank Private Limited has announced the appointment of Jacqueline Hey and Dr. Lisa McIntyre as non-executive directors, effective from November 19, 2025. This strategic addition to the board is expected to enhance the company’s governance...
Medibank Private Secures Strong Shareholder Support at 2025 AGM
Nov 19, 2025
Medibank Private Limited successfully held its 2025 Annual General Meeting, where all resolutions from 2 to 7 were passed as ordinary resolutions by poll. The re-election of directors Kathryn Fagg AC and Peter Everingham, along with the election o...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.