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AUB Group Limited (AU:AUB)
ASX:AUB

AUB Group (AUB) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:AUB

AUB Group

(Sydney:AUB)

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Neutral 60 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
AU$27.00
â–˛(6.64% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:12/02/25
The overall stock score of 60 reflects strong financial performance, particularly in profitability and cash flow management. However, technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, and valuation metrics suggest the stock is moderately priced. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events limits further insights.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
AUB’s very strong free cash flow growth and near parity of FCF to net income indicate durable cash conversion that supports reinvestment, acquisitions, dividends and balance sheet flexibility. This cash strength underpins long-term strategic optionality and resilience through insurance cycles.
Robust operating margins
Sustained high EBIT/EBITDA margins and an improved net margin reflect efficient cost structure and profitable service mix in brokerage and agency operations. Durable margin levels support cash generation and make returns less susceptible to top-line variability over the medium term.
Manageable leverage and stable capital structure
A moderate debt-to-equity ratio and an adequate equity base indicate conservative financial policy and capacity to absorb shocks. This balance sheet stability preserves capital flexibility for M&A or underwriting support, reducing refinancing and solvency risk over a multi-quarter horizon.
Negative Factors
Recent negative revenue trend
A declining top line is a structural concern: weaker premium volumes or reduced placements can erode future commission income and profit participation. Persistent revenue contraction would pressure margins and cash conversion, limiting the firm’s ability to invest or pursue deals long term.
Exposure to insurance pricing cycles
AUB’s business model ties earnings to premium volumes, pricing cycles and renewal dynamics. These structural sensitivities mean macro/industry hard or soft markets can materially swing revenue and profit, creating cyclical volatility that persists across multiple quarters.
Moderate return on equity
An ROE around 10-11% is modest for a distribution-heavy insurer-broker model; it can indicate limited organic return potential relative to capital deployed. Over time this may constrain shareholder return expectations and require higher growth or M&A to materially improve per-share performance.

AUB Group (AUB) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

AUB Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAUB Group Limited engages in the insurance broking and underwriting businesses in Australia and New Zealand. The company provides insurance broking and advisory services primarily to SME clients; distributes ancillary products; and designs, distributes, and manages insurance products on behalf of licensed insurance companies. It also offers support services, such as loss adjustment, investigations, claims management, and claim legal support services; and automated quoting and binding, white-labelling, and technological support services, as well as ExpressCover; and BizCover, a digital SME insurance platform with multi-channel presence and insurance offerings. The company was formerly known as Austbrokers Holdings Limited and changed its name to AUB Group Limited in November 2015. AUB Group Limited was incorporated in 1885 and is headquartered in North Sydney, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyAUB Group generates revenue primarily through commissions and fees earned from insurance premiums placed with various insurers. As a broker, AUB acts as an intermediary between clients and insurance companies, earning a commission on each policy sold. Additionally, the company generates income from advisory services related to risk management and claims handling. Key revenue streams include performance fees from insurers based on the volume of business placed, as well as service fees for specialized consulting services. Significant partnerships with a wide range of insurers and other financial service providers also contribute to AUB's earnings by expanding its product offerings and enhancing its market reach.

AUB Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
AUB Group demonstrates strong profitability and cash flow management, with robust margins and cash generation. However, the negative revenue growth rate is a concern that needs addressing. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage, supporting the company's financial health.
Income Statement
75
Positive
The income statement shows a strong gross profit margin of 100% for the latest year, indicating efficient cost management. However, the revenue growth rate is negative at -5.38%, which is a concern. The net profit margin has improved to 17.41%, suggesting enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 34.36% and 43.65%, respectively, reflecting strong operational performance.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.57, indicating manageable leverage. Return on equity is reasonable at 10.64%, showing decent profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 35.74%, suggesting a stable capital structure with adequate equity backing.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows a significant free cash flow growth rate of 35.39%, highlighting strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.26, indicating efficient conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 98.80%, reflecting excellent cash flow management.
BreakdownTTMJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.17B1.03B1.05B740.01M336.86M315.86M
Gross Profit1.17B1.03B519.53M387.63M295.08M169.54M
EBITDA294.32M451.38M219.69M241.81M151.51M73.26M
Net Income188.95M180.06M137.07M65.25M80.84M70.62M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.60B4.73B4.05B3.88B1.64B1.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.28B1.34B1.29B1.20B593.48M282.87M
Total Debt1.25B958.06M724.69M661.11M74.74M238.15M
Total Liabilities2.77B2.66B2.30B2.37B642.80M547.83M
Stockholders Equity1.54B1.69B1.51B1.28B854.49M478.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow266.85M381.90M75.60M201.49M93.34M111.89M
Operating Cash Flow270.67M386.53M82.00M202.24M95.53M112.59M
Investing Cash Flow-207.79M-365.77M-82.81M-136.85M118.45M23.23M
Financing Cash Flow-16.23M34.62M89.21M498.66M98.80M-96.99M

AUB Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price25.32
Price Trends
50DMA
28.84
Negative
100DMA
31.77
Negative
200DMA
32.69
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.35
Negative
RSI
39.17
Neutral
STOCH
68.65
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AUB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.87, below the 50-day MA of 28.84, and below the 200-day MA of 32.69, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AUB.

AUB Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
AU$3.12B15.6218.51%4.17%5.90%7.22%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
63
Neutral
AU$4.80B13.6614.17%3.70%9.16%43.16%
60
Neutral
AU$3.30B15.6411.17%2.95%10.98%23.05%
60
Neutral
AU$5.96B12.554.84%3.10%11.78%47.53%
50
Neutral
AU$2.11B-124.17-3.34%6.01%2.87%87.93%
49
Neutral
AU$7.82B74.9115.22%0.57%24.44%68.80%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:AUB
AUB Group
25.32
-5.10
-16.76%
AU:CGF
Challenger
8.66
3.14
56.74%
AU:NHF
NIB Holdings Ltd
6.41
-0.07
-1.05%
AU:PPT
Perpetual Limited
18.39
-0.45
-2.41%
AU:SDF
Steadfast Group Limited
4.33
-1.01
-18.97%
AU:HUB
HUB24 Limited
95.91
18.12
23.30%

AUB Group Corporate Events

AUB Group lifts FY26 outlook on resilient first-half profit growth
Feb 24, 2026

AUB Group, a major ASX200 insurance broking and underwriting agency network, operates at scale across hundreds of locations and channels substantial premium volumes into local and foreign insurance markets. Its diversified structure and capital allocation model are positioned to support sustained earnings growth and resilience across insurance cycles.

The company reported a strong first half of FY26, with underlying NPAT up 13.9% to $90.4 million and margins expanding to 33.9%, driven by operating leverage and cost discipline rather than market tailwinds. Management emphasised capital discipline, accretive acquisitions such as the Prestige deal in the UK, early adoption of AI to boost broker productivity, and upgraded FY26 profit guidance to reflect broad-based divisional strength despite weakness in New Zealand broking.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AUB) stock is a Hold with a A$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AUB Group stock, see the AU:AUB Stock Forecast page.

AUB Group Declares Interim Dividend of 27 Cents per Share
Feb 23, 2026

AUB Group Limited has declared an ordinary dividend of AUD 0.27 per fully paid share, relating to the six‑month period ended 31 December 2025. The distribution will be paid on 2 April 2026, with shares trading ex‑dividend on 12 March and the record date set for 13 March, confirming the company’s ongoing practice of returning capital to shareholders through interim payouts.

The announcement outlines the timetable for eligible investors to qualify for the dividend and indicates that no additional regulatory or shareholder approvals are required before payment. This clarity on the dividend schedule provides income visibility for current shareholders and may support the stock’s appeal to yield‑focused investors in the lead‑up to the key March dates.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AUB) stock is a Hold with a A$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AUB Group stock, see the AU:AUB Stock Forecast page.

AUB Group Lifts Half-Year Profit and Revenue, Declares Higher Interim Dividend
Feb 23, 2026

AUB Group Limited, an ASX200-listed network of insurance brokers and underwriting agencies, operates from about 579 locations and serves roughly 1.2 million clients. The company arranges over $11 billion in premiums with local and foreign insurers, supported by a workforce of more than 6,000 people across its network.

For the half-year to 31 December 2025, AUB Group reported a 6.29% increase in revenue from ordinary activities to $582.1 million. Profit after tax attributable to members rose 33.72% to $35.3 million, while underlying NPAT, the group’s key performance measure, climbed 13.94% to $90.4 million.

Despite these gains, the company recorded a total comprehensive loss after tax attributable to members of $11.5 million, reflecting adverse movements in items outside underlying profit. The board declared a fully franked interim dividend of 27 cents per share, with entitlement set for 13 March 2026, signaling continued capital returns to shareholders alongside growth in core earnings.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AUB) stock is a Hold with a A$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AUB Group stock, see the AU:AUB Stock Forecast page.

AUB Group Sets Date and Investor Briefing for 1H26 Results
Feb 9, 2026

AUB Group Limited has scheduled the release of its first-half 2026 financial results for 24 February 2026, with CEO and Managing Director Mike Emmett and Interim CFO Nick Dryden set to present the outcome. The results will be detailed via a webcast and teleconference, underscoring the company’s commitment to transparency for investors and other stakeholders ahead of the second half of its financial year.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AUB) stock is a Hold with a A$30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AUB Group stock, see the AU:AUB Stock Forecast page.

AUB Group Opens Share Purchase Plan to Existing Shareholders
Feb 3, 2026

AUB Group has opened its previously announced Share Purchase Plan to eligible shareholders, releasing an offer booklet and setting a closing date of 5:00pm AEDT on 26 February 2026. The capital-raising initiative is designed to provide existing investors with an opportunity to increase their holdings, potentially strengthening AUB’s balance sheet and funding capacity while reinforcing shareholder engagement and supporting the company’s continued growth in the insurance broking and underwriting sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AUB) stock is a Buy with a A$35.26 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AUB Group stock, see the AU:AUB Stock Forecast page.

AUB Director Tonianne Dwyer Acquires Initial Shareholding in On‑Market Trade
Feb 3, 2026

AUB Group Limited has disclosed that non-executive director Tonianne Dwyer has acquired 1,750 ordinary fully paid shares in the company via an on‑market trade on 3 February 2026, for a total consideration of $51,620.83. The purchase marks Dwyer’s first recorded holding in AUB Group shares and signals a modest increase in board-level equity alignment with shareholders, although the transaction is not associated with any change in contractual interests and was conducted outside a closed trading period.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AUB) stock is a Buy with a A$35.26 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AUB Group stock, see the AU:AUB Stock Forecast page.

AUB Group Issues $400m Institutional Placement Shares, Confirms Regulatory Compliance
Feb 2, 2026

AUB Group Limited has completed the issuance of 13,605,443 fully paid ordinary shares at AUD 29.40 per share to institutional investors under a fully underwritten institutional placement announced in late January 2026. The company confirmed that the shares were issued without a prospectus under the relevant provisions of the Corporations Act and that it remains in compliance with its continuous disclosure and financial reporting obligations, with no excluded information requiring disclosure, underscoring regulatory adherence as it strengthens its capital base through the placement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AUB) stock is a Buy with a A$35.26 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AUB Group stock, see the AU:AUB Stock Forecast page.

AUB Group Sets Out Key Investor and Governance Dates for 2026
Jan 30, 2026

AUB Group has released its key investor dates for 2026, outlining the timetable for major financial disclosures and shareholder events. The company will present its half-year 2026 results on 24 February and its full-year 2026 results on 25 August, each accompanied by an investor presentation, followed by the closing date for director nominations on 24 September and the Annual General Meeting on 12 November. The schedule provides investors and other stakeholders with a clear roadmap for financial reporting and governance milestones through the year, supporting transparency around AUB’s performance and board composition processes.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AUB) stock is a Buy with a A$35.26 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AUB Group stock, see the AU:AUB Stock Forecast page.

AUB Group Seeks ASX Quotation for 13.6 Million New Shares
Jan 30, 2026

AUB Group Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 13,605,443 new ordinary fully paid shares, with an issue date of 2 February 2026. The securities are being brought to market under a previously announced transaction, signalling a notable increase in AUB’s listed equity base that may support ongoing strategic initiatives and potentially broaden its shareholder register, with implications for capital structure and liquidity in its stock.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AUB) stock is a Buy with a A$35.26 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AUB Group stock, see the AU:AUB Stock Forecast page.

AUB Group Raises AUD 400m to Fund Prestige Acquisition and UK Expansion
Jan 27, 2026

AUB Group has completed a fully subscribed institutional placement of approximately 13.6 million new shares at AUD 29.40 per share, raising AUD 400 million at a 7.9% discount to the last traded price. The placement, which drew strong demand from both existing and new investors, will be used alongside new debt facilities to fund the acquisition of UK-based Prestige and associated costs, supporting AUB’s strategy to accelerate its UK retail expansion and pursue further accretive growth opportunities; the group will also offer a non-underwritten share purchase plan of up to AUD 40 million to eligible Australian and New Zealand shareholders, allowing broader investor participation in the capital raising.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AUB) stock is a Hold with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AUB Group stock, see the AU:AUB Stock Forecast page.

AUB Group Raises AUD 400m to Fund Prestige Acquisition and UK Expansion
Jan 27, 2026

AUB Group has completed a fully subscribed institutional placement of approximately 13.6 million new shares at AUD 29.40 per share, raising AUD 400 million at a 7.9% discount to the last traded price. The placement, which drew strong demand from both existing and new investors, will be used alongside new debt facilities to fund the acquisition of UK-based Prestige and associated costs, supporting AUB’s strategy to accelerate its UK retail expansion and pursue further accretive growth opportunities; the group will also offer a non-underwritten share purchase plan of up to AUD 40 million to eligible Australian and New Zealand shareholders, allowing broader investor participation in the capital raising.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AUB) stock is a Hold with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AUB Group stock, see the AU:AUB Stock Forecast page.

AUB Group Plans Nearly 15 Million New Share Issue via Placement and Purchase Plan
Jan 27, 2026

AUB Group Limited has announced a proposed issue of up to 14,965,987 new ordinary fully paid shares, comprising a securities purchase plan of up to 1,360,544 shares and a separate placement or other type of issue of up to 13,605,443 shares. The share placement is scheduled for issue on 2 February 2026, while the securities purchase plan will close on 26 February 2026 with an issue date of 5 March 2026, a move that is expected to broaden the company’s shareholder base and provide additional capital to support its ongoing corporate and strategic initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AUB) stock is a Hold with a A$33.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AUB Group stock, see the AU:AUB Stock Forecast page.

AUB Group Releases Acquisition and Equity Raising Presentation
Jan 27, 2026

AUB Group has released an Acquisition and Equity Raising Presentation, signalling an upcoming transaction and associated capital raising activity aimed at supporting its growth strategy. While specific deal terms are not detailed in the announcement, the move underscores AUB’s continued expansion in the insurance broking and underwriting markets and indicates an effort to strengthen its financial position and market presence through acquisition-led growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AUB) stock is a Hold with a A$33.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AUB Group stock, see the AU:AUB Stock Forecast page.

AUB Group to Acquire UK Broker Prestige in $432m Deal, Backed by Equity Raising and New Debt
Jan 27, 2026

AUB Group has agreed to acquire 95.9% of UK-based PIHL Holdings Limited, known as Prestige, for AUD 432 million, in a deal that will materially expand its UK retail insurance footprint and mark its entry into the UK MGA segment. Prestige, a diversified insurance broking and underwriting platform with over GBP 300 million in gross written premium and around 650 staff across the UK and Ireland, will boost AUB’s UK retail gross written premium to more than GBP 720 million and become the core equity ownership platform for its UK retail broking and MGA operations. The transaction, valued at 12.9 times CY25 EBITDA before synergies and 10.0 times including at least AUD 10 million in anticipated cost synergies by FY27, is expected to deliver operating efficiencies and cross-selling benefits with AUB’s existing Tysers wholesale and retail businesses, subject to regulatory approval before 30 June 2026. To fund the acquisition and ongoing deal activity, AUB has launched a fully underwritten AUD 400 million institutional placement, will offer a AUD 40 million share purchase plan, and has secured an additional AUD 200 million debt facility from Macquarie Bank on improved terms, alongside completing approximately AUD 200 million of business-as-usual M&A in 1H26, including step-ups in Pacific Indemnity and AUB 360. The company also issued a trading update, guiding 1H26 underlying net profit after tax to AUD 90–91 million and reaffirming its FY26 profit outlook, excluding the impact of Prestige and recent step-up acquisitions, underscoring management’s confidence in underlying performance while it accelerates its international expansion strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AUB) stock is a Hold with a A$33.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AUB Group stock, see the AU:AUB Stock Forecast page.

AUB Group Requests Trading Halt Ahead of Capital Raising Announcement
Jan 26, 2026

AUB Group Limited has requested and been granted a trading halt in its ordinary shares on the ASX as it prepares to announce a proposed capital raising that will include an institutional placement and a share purchase plan. The halt, effective from the start of trading on 27 January 2026, will remain in place until either the completion announcement of the placement or the commencement of trading on 28 January 2026, aiming to ensure an orderly market while the company finalises details of the funding initiative, which could have implications for its capital structure and existing shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AUB) stock is a Hold with a A$33.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AUB Group stock, see the AU:AUB Stock Forecast page.

AUB Group Cancels Over 114,000 Lapsed Performance Share Rights
Jan 2, 2026

AUB Group Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 114,778 performance share rights, which lapsed on 31 December 2025 after the conditions attached to those rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The lapse of these conditional rights results in no corresponding issuance of new shares, modestly affecting AUB’s potential future dilution profile and providing investors with additional clarity on the company’s issued capital position at the start of 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AUB) stock is a Buy with a A$38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AUB Group stock, see the AU:AUB Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 02, 2025