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Challenger Limited (AU:CGF)
ASX:CGF

Challenger (CGF) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:CGF

Challenger

(Sydney:CGF)

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Neutral 60 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
AU$9.50
▲(4.05% Upside)
Challenger's overall stock score is driven by mixed financial performance and positive technical indicators. The high leverage and revenue decline pose significant risks, while the technical analysis suggests bullish momentum. The valuation indicates potential overvaluation, which tempers the overall score.
Positive Factors
Cash Flow Generation
Challenger's ability to generate positive free cash flow indicates strong cash management, which supports operational flexibility and investment capacity.
Net Profit Margin Improvement
Improved net profit margins suggest effective cost management and operational efficiency, enhancing profitability and shareholder value over time.
Retirement Market Focus
Targeting the expanding retirement market positions Challenger for long-term growth, as demographic trends increase demand for retirement income solutions.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Significant leverage can strain financial stability, limiting flexibility in adverse market conditions and potentially increasing financial risk.
Revenue Decline
A sharp decline in revenue raises concerns about market competitiveness and growth prospects, potentially impacting long-term sustainability.
Operational Challenges
Operational inefficiencies indicated by a negative EBIT margin could hinder profitability and require strategic adjustments to improve performance.

Challenger (CGF) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Challenger Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionChallenger Limited is a publicly owned investment manager. The company also provides retirement services to its clients. It manages equity mutual funds. The firm invests into the public equity markets across the world. Challenger Limited was founded in 1985 and is based in Australia, Asia and United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyChallenger generates revenue primarily through the sale of its financial products, which include life insurance policies, annuities, and managed investment funds. The company earns income from premiums collected on insurance products and management fees from the funds it manages. Additionally, Challenger benefits from investment income derived from its investment portfolios. Strategic partnerships with financial advisors and institutions also contribute to its revenue by expanding its distribution channels. The growing demand for retirement income solutions, driven by Australia's aging population, further enhances its earnings potential.

Challenger Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Challenger's financial performance is mixed, with a significant revenue decline of 79% and high leverage indicated by a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.14. However, improvements in net profit margins and cash flow generation provide some positive aspects. Overall, the financial stability is at risk due to inconsistent revenue growth and high debt levels.
Income Statement
Challenger's income statement shows significant volatility. The company experienced a dramatic revenue decline of 79% in the latest year, which is concerning. Despite this, the net profit margin improved to 25.6%, indicating some efficiency in cost management. However, the negative EBIT margin suggests operational challenges. The revenue growth rate has been inconsistent, with a sharp decline in the most recent period.
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.14, indicating significant leverage, which poses a risk in volatile markets. The return on equity is modest at 4.98%, showing limited profitability from equity investments. The equity ratio is not provided, but the high debt levels suggest a lower equity proportion in the asset base.
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals a positive free cash flow growth rate of 17.1%, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.03, suggesting potential issues in converting profits into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, showing effective cash management relative to net income.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.20B750.50M3.28B2.23B-414.30M3.03B
Gross Profit750.50M750.50M635.90M652.20M1.36B1.79B
EBITDA1.07B1.11B924.70M970.50M414.30M1.17B
Net Income192.30M192.30M129.90M287.50M253.70M592.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets34.95B34.95B33.41B30.98B29.74B29.99B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments32.39B32.39B573.20M593.40M733.10M989.40M
Total Debt8.27B8.27B7.13B5.89B5.85B6.39B
Total Liabilities31.09B31.09B29.52B26.81B25.75B26.17B
Stockholders Equity3.86B3.86B3.88B4.16B3.99B3.83B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow399.40M399.40M841.80M1.27B2.48B2.56B
Operating Cash Flow399.60M399.60M843.70M1.27B2.49B2.58B
Investing Cash Flow-1.18B-1.18B-1.94B-1.34B-2.12B-865.00M
Financing Cash Flow854.70M854.70M1.08B-35.00M-619.80M-1.38B

Challenger Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price9.13
Price Trends
50DMA
9.10
Positive
100DMA
8.85
Positive
200DMA
8.10
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.12
Positive
RSI
57.31
Neutral
STOCH
44.85
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:CGF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.33, above the 50-day MA of 9.10, and above the 200-day MA of 8.10, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:CGF.

Challenger Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
64
Neutral
AU$6.29B54.7367.81%1.45%28.29%39.39%
62
Neutral
AU$143.13M18.508.88%21.79%-23.00%
61
Neutral
AU$3.72B27.5919.56%3.45%37.42%38.37%
60
Neutral
AU$6.48B33.644.84%3.10%11.78%47.53%
56
Neutral
AU$1.96B23.005.31%16.78%22.86%
50
Neutral
AU$2.22B-37.34-3.34%6.01%2.87%87.93%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:CGF
Challenger
9.13
3.39
59.06%
AU:PPT
Perpetual Limited
19.02
0.36
1.96%
AU:PNI
Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited
17.39
-5.12
-22.75%
AU:JDO
Judo Capital Holdings Limited
1.77
-0.03
-1.67%
AU:NOL
NobleOak Life Ltd
1.53
0.03
2.00%
AU:NWL
Netwealth Group Ltd.
25.76
-1.26
-4.66%

Challenger Corporate Events

Challenger Limited Unveils 2026 Financial Calendar
Dec 17, 2025

Challenger Limited has announced its financial calendar for 2026, detailing key dates for half-year and full-year results, dividend announcements, and other significant events. This schedule provides stakeholders with a clear timeline for financial disclosures, which is crucial for investors and market analysts in planning and decision-making.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CGF) stock is a Buy with a A$10.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Challenger stock, see the AU:CGF Stock Forecast page.

Challenger Limited Announces New Distribution for Investors
Nov 28, 2025

Challenger Limited has announced a new distribution for its security, CAP NOTE 3-BBSW+3.60% PERP NON-CUM RED T-05-29, with a distribution amount of AUD 1.28. The payment is scheduled for February 25, 2026, following the record date of February 17, 2026. This discretionary distribution reflects Challenger’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its investors, although it is contingent upon no payment conditions existing on the payment date.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CGF) stock is a Hold with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Challenger stock, see the AU:CGF Stock Forecast page.

Challenger Limited Announces New Distribution for Capital Notes 3
Nov 28, 2025

Challenger Limited has announced a new distribution for its Capital Notes 3, with a payment of AUD 1.46 scheduled for February 25, 2026. This discretionary distribution is subject to the absence of any payment conditions, reflecting Challenger’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its stakeholders while maintaining flexibility in its financial operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CGF) stock is a Hold with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Challenger stock, see the AU:CGF Stock Forecast page.

Challenger Limited Receives Credit Rating Upgrade from S&P
Nov 25, 2025

Challenger Limited announced that S&P Global Ratings has upgraded the credit ratings for both Challenger Life Company Limited and Challenger Limited, reflecting the company’s market leadership in the Australian annuities market and strong retirement savings trends. The upgrade highlights Challenger’s competitive advantage in risk management and capital adequacy, which supports its ability to navigate market and credit stress.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CGF) stock is a Hold with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Challenger stock, see the AU:CGF Stock Forecast page.

Challenger Limited Director’s Interest Update: Performance Rights Increase
Nov 14, 2025

Challenger Limited announced a change in the interests of its director, Nicolas Hamilton, who has acquired an additional 305,381 Hurdled Performance Share Rights as part of an annual remuneration review. This adjustment increases his total holdings to 1,680,858 Performance Rights and Restricted Shares under the Challenger Performance Plan, potentially impacting the company’s governance and aligning director incentives with company performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CGF) stock is a Hold with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Challenger stock, see the AU:CGF Stock Forecast page.

Challenger Limited Appoints Damian Graham as Group Chief Investment Officer
Nov 5, 2025

Challenger Limited has announced the appointment of Damian Graham as the Group Chief Investment Officer, effective January 2026. This new role aims to integrate investment teams from Challenger Life and Funds Management, enhancing alignment of investment capabilities. Graham, with over 30 years of experience in investment management, will lead the unified investment team, leveraging his expertise in superannuation and retirement industries to drive investment excellence and support Challenger’s mission of providing financial security for better retirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CGF) stock is a Sell with a A$7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Challenger stock, see the AU:CGF Stock Forecast page.

Challenger Limited Announces AGM Results and Strategic Resolutions
Oct 30, 2025

Challenger Limited announced the results of its Annual General Meeting held on October 30, 2025. Key resolutions passed include the adoption of the Remuneration Report for the financial year ended June 2025, approval for granting long-term performance share rights to the CEO, and the re-election of directors John Somerville and David Whittle. These resolutions reflect strong shareholder support and are expected to reinforce the company’s leadership and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CGF) stock is a Buy with a A$10.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Challenger stock, see the AU:CGF Stock Forecast page.

Challenger Supports APRA’s New Capital Standards for Longevity Products
Oct 29, 2025

Challenger Limited has expressed strong support for APRA’s proposed capital standards for longevity products, which aim to enhance Australia’s retirement income market by reducing capital requirements and promoting innovation. These reforms are expected to improve Challenger’s financial resilience, reduce procyclicality during market stress, and drive growth in the lifetime income market, benefiting retirees and the broader community.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CGF) stock is a Hold with a A$9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Challenger stock, see the AU:CGF Stock Forecast page.

Challenger Limited Reports Strong Start to FY26 with Robust Annuity Sales
Oct 15, 2025

Challenger Limited reported a strong start to FY26 with a 4% increase in total life sales, driven by significant growth in annuity sales. The company is making strategic progress by forming partnerships with superannuation funds and launching new products, such as the ASX listed income notes, LiFTS, to meet the demand for guaranteed retirement income. Despite a decrease in funds under management, Challenger is expanding its offerings and remains well-capitalized, positioning itself for future growth amid upcoming regulatory changes that are expected to benefit the industry and retirees.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CGF) stock is a Buy with a A$9.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Challenger stock, see the AU:CGF Stock Forecast page.

Challenger Limited Issues Unquoted Performance Rights
Oct 2, 2025

Challenger Limited has announced the issuance of 1,548,539 performance rights as part of an employee incentive scheme. These unquoted securities are not intended to be listed on the ASX, indicating a move to reward and retain key personnel, potentially impacting the company’s operational dynamics and aligning employee interests with corporate goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CGF) stock is a Hold with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Challenger stock, see the AU:CGF Stock Forecast page.

Challenger Limited Announces Cessation of Performance Rights
Oct 2, 2025

Challenger Limited has announced the cessation of 298,281 performance rights due to the lapse of conditional rights that were not satisfied. This development may affect the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders regarding the company’s future performance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CGF) stock is a Hold with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Challenger stock, see the AU:CGF Stock Forecast page.

Challenger Limited Updates Shareholding Structure
Oct 1, 2025

Challenger Limited has announced changes in its shareholding structure, specifically regarding its interests and derivative exposures. The company, through its controlled entities, has a minor interest in 33,429 ordinary shares, representing 0.0048% of total shares. Recent changes include acquisitions and forfeitures of shares by the Challenger Performance Plan Trust, affecting the company’s overall shareholding and potentially its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CGF) stock is a Hold with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Challenger stock, see the AU:CGF Stock Forecast page.

Challenger Limited Ceases Substantial Holding in A2 Milk Company
Oct 1, 2025

Challenger Limited has announced that it has ceased to be a substantial holder in The A2 Milk Company Limited. This change in holdings reflects a strategic decision by Challenger, potentially impacting its investment portfolio and signaling a shift in its market focus. The announcement may have implications for stakeholders as it indicates a reallocation of resources or a change in investment strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CGF) stock is a Hold with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Challenger stock, see the AU:CGF Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 22, 2025