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Judo Capital Holdings Limited (AU:JDO)
ASX:JDO
Australian Market

Judo Capital Holdings Limited (JDO) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:JDO

Judo Capital Holdings Limited

(Sydney:JDO)

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Neutral 56 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
AU$2.00
▲(14.94% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:11/14/25
Judo Capital Holdings Limited shows strong financial performance with impressive revenue growth and improving profitability. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and valuation metrics indicate moderate pricing without a dividend yield. The company must address leverage and cash flow issues to enhance its financial stability.
Positive Factors
SME-focused relationship banking
Judo's relationship-led SME banking model creates durable client stickiness and cross-sell opportunities. Deep SME focus supports tailored credit assessment, higher retention of deposit funding, and pricing power with business customers, underpinning stable loan growth and recurring NII over months.
Very strong recent revenue growth
A 226% revenue surge signals substantial loan book expansion and market share capture in SME lending. When driven by sustainable client acquisition and lending volume rather than one-off items, such growth supports scaling of fixed-cost coverage and long-term profitability improvement.
Improving leverage metrics
Marked reduction in debt-to-equity reflects active deleveraging and stronger capital positioning. Improved ROE shows better capital efficiency. These changes increase resilience to shocks, expand lending capacity, and provide durable support for strategic initiatives over the coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Declining operating cash flow
Decreasing operating cash flow and negative FCF growth indicate weaker internal cash generation versus reported earnings. Over 2-6 months this can force greater reliance on wholesale funding or slower loan book growth, constraining liquidity management and capital deployment flexibility.
Gross margin compression
A falling gross margin signals cost pressures or competitive loan pricing that can erode durable profitability even as revenue rises. If margins stay compressed, the bank may struggle to sustain net margin expansion and ROE improvement without operational efficiency gains or repricing support.
Residual high leverage and funding sensitivity
Although leverage has improved, the remaining elevated debt level keeps the bank sensitive to funding shocks and interest rate swings given reliance on deposits and wholesale funding. This structural funding risk can limit strategic flexibility and raise refinancing costs in stressed periods.

Judo Capital Holdings Limited (JDO) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Judo Capital Holdings Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJudo Capital Holdings Limited provides various banking products and services for small and medium businesses in Australia. It accepts term deposits; and provides business loans, lines of credit, home loans, asset financing, equipment loan, and bank guarantees. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is based in Southbank, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyJudo Capital Holdings generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned on its lending portfolio. The company originates loans to SMEs and charges interest on these loans, which constitutes a significant portion of its revenue. Additionally, Judo may earn fees from loan origination, processing, and servicing. The company’s focus on the SME sector allows it to tap into a market that often faces challenges in obtaining financing from traditional banks. Partnerships with financial advisors and industry groups also enhance Judo's reach and contribute to its revenue by increasing loan origination opportunities. The growth in the SME lending market and the company's ability to offer customized financial solutions further drive its earnings.

Judo Capital Holdings Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Judo Capital Holdings Limited exhibits strong revenue growth and improving profitability, reflecting a positive business trajectory. The balance sheet shows improved leverage management, though high debt levels remain a risk. Cash flow challenges are evident, with negative growth in free cash flow. Overall, the company is on a growth path but must address leverage and cash flow issues to ensure long-term financial stability.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Judo Capital Holdings Limited has shown impressive revenue growth with a 226.51% increase in the latest year, indicating strong business expansion. The net profit margin improved significantly to 8.13% from negative figures in earlier years, reflecting enhanced profitability. However, the gross profit margin has decreased, suggesting rising costs or pricing pressures. Overall, the income statement reflects a positive growth trajectory with improving profitability.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved from 3.06 to 1.85, indicating better leverage management. However, it remains relatively high, posing potential financial risk. The return on equity has improved to 5.12%, showing better utilization of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure. While improvements are evident, high leverage remains a concern.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Operating cash flow has decreased, and free cash flow growth is negative, indicating potential cash management challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.45, suggesting efficient cash generation relative to earnings. However, the decline in cash flow metrics warrants attention to ensure liquidity and operational stability.
BreakdownJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.06B326.60M579.60M156.50M131.72M
Gross Profit334.70M384.80M579.60M156.50M131.72M
EBITDA141.10M120.70M116.10M0.00-653.00K
Net Income86.40M69.90M73.40M-7.70M28.81M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets14.98B13.20B12.15B9.41B7.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.47B654.60M633.00M3.20B3.88B
Total Debt3.12B3.15B4.52B3.83B3.53B
Total Liabilities13.29B11.63B10.67B3.85B3.55B
Stockholders Equity1.69B1.57B1.48B1.40B1.36B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow125.50M172.40M244.70M71.30M4.47M
Operating Cash Flow136.60M197.80M272.10M84.40M17.16M
Investing Cash Flow-21.20M-1.03B-2.50B455.10M-4.58B
Financing Cash Flow-30.70M897.40M2.54B599.80M4.69B

Judo Capital Holdings Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price1.74
Price Trends
50DMA
1.80
Negative
100DMA
1.72
Negative
200DMA
1.67
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.03
Positive
RSI
40.98
Neutral
STOCH
13.01
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:JDO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.82, below the 50-day MA of 1.80, and above the 200-day MA of 1.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.01 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:JDO.

Judo Capital Holdings Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
69
Neutral
AU$1.06B10.2512.11%11.71%-6.49%-5.40%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
56
Neutral
AU$1.87B17.685.31%16.78%22.86%
53
Neutral
AU$758.50M16.175.92%4.63%26.01%-17.55%
52
Neutral
AU$33.26M24.141.06%-7.19%
52
Neutral
AU$966.95M10.405.01%6.60%14.81%
50
Neutral
AU$1.16B8.0511.19%11.83%2.11%15.71%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:JDO
Judo Capital Holdings Limited
1.67
-0.40
-19.17%
AU:BBC
BNK Banking Corporation Limited
0.28
-0.03
-9.68%
AU:PPM
Pepper Money Ltd
2.39
1.16
94.31%
AU:LFS
Latitude Group Holdings Ltd.
0.93
-0.20
-17.70%
AU:LFG
Liberty Financial Group Ltd
3.83
0.54
16.41%
AU:MYS
Mystate Limited
4.47
0.64
16.80%

Judo Capital Holdings Limited Corporate Events

Judo Capital Director Trims Direct Shareholding to Cover Tax Obligations
Mar 2, 2026

Judo Capital Holdings has disclosed changes in the shareholding of director Christopher James Bayliss, who conducted a series of on-market trades between 23 and 27 February 2026. The transactions, carried out to meet tax obligations, saw Bayliss dispose of a total of 1,000,000 fully paid ordinary shares, reducing his direct holding while leaving his indirect beneficial interest of 2,000,000 shares unchanged.

Following these trades, Bayliss now directly holds 904,295 fully paid ordinary shares in Judo, alongside a substantial package of deferred share rights, premium priced options, and performance rights granted under the company’s incentive plans. The notice signals an adjustment in the director’s personal equity position rather than a change in the company’s capital structure, and maintains significant alignment between Bayliss’s interests and those of other shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

Judo Capital Director McHutchison Acquires Stake via Family Trust
Feb 24, 2026

Judo Capital Holdings Limited has disclosed a change in director Malcolm Rowland McHutchison’s relevant interest in the company’s securities. The disclosure notes that McHutchison now holds an indirect interest via a family trust structure administered through Bond Street Custodians Limited.

According to the filing, McHutchison acquired 54,945 fully paid ordinary shares in an on-market trade for consideration of about $100,528, where he previously held no such securities. The transaction slightly increases director-aligned ownership in the company, which may be viewed by some stakeholders as a signal of confidence in Judo Capital’s prospects and governance alignment.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

Judo Capital Director Increases Holding of Capital Notes
Feb 23, 2026

Judo Capital Holdings has disclosed a change in the personal holdings of director Peter John Hodgson, who increased his direct interest in the company’s capital notes through an on-market trade. He acquired 500 additional capital notes for $56,294.26, bringing his direct holding in these instruments to 1,500, alongside existing ordinary shares and subordinated notes.

The transaction, reported under ASX disclosure rules, reflects an adjustment in the director’s fixed-income style exposure to the bank rather than equity, and does not alter his indirect interests held via a superannuation fund. While the move is relatively small in scale, it signals continued financial alignment between the director and the company through listed hybrid securities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

ECP Asset Management Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Judo Capital
Jan 19, 2026

ECP Asset Management Pty Ltd, together with EC Pohl & Co Pty Ltd and related entities, has notified Judo Capital Holdings Limited that it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder as of 12 January 2026, following changes in its relevant interest in the company’s voting securities since its previous notice in May 2025. The exit of this substantial holder alters Judo Capital’s share register and may modestly impact perceptions of the company’s shareholder base and governance dynamics, although no changes in associations or control arrangements were disclosed in the filing.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

Judo Bank Lifts Loan Book to $13.4bn and Reaffirms FY26 Growth Targets
Jan 1, 2026

Judo Capital Holdings reported that its unaudited gross loans and advances reached approximately $13.4 billion as at 31 December 2025, reflecting strong loan growth in the first half of FY26 and reinforcing the appeal of its relationship-led SME lending proposition. Management reaffirmed guidance for FY26 gross loans and advances of $14.2–14.7 billion and profit before tax of $180–190 million, up from $125.6 million in FY25, signaling increasing operating leverage and suggesting improved profitability and scalability for shareholders and other stakeholders ahead of the upcoming first-half results announcement in February 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Buy with a A$2.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Shareholder in Judo Capital Holdings
Jan 1, 2026

State Street Corporation, through several of its asset management and custody subsidiaries, has lodged a notice that it has ceased to be a substantial holder in Judo Capital Holdings Limited as of 29 December 2025. The change reflects a reduction in State Street’s relevant voting interest below the substantial holding threshold, signaling a shift in the share register that may slightly broaden Judo’s investor base but does not, on its own, indicate any operational or strategic change at the bank.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Buy with a A$2.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

Judo Bank Switches Trustee for ASX-Listed Capital Notes
Dec 22, 2025

Judo Capital Holdings Limited has announced a change in trustee for its ASX-listed Capital Notes (JDOPA), issued in November 2023, with Certane CT Pty Ltd intending to retire and Melbourne Securities Corporation Limited (MSC Trustees) appointed as the new trustee effective 19 December 2025 under the existing Capital Notes Trust Deed and relevant Corporations Act provisions. The company emphasised that this trustee transition, involving entities within the same corporate group, will not alter the rights or interests of Capital Noteholders and requires no action from investors, indicating the change is administrative in nature with limited operational or financial impact on stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Buy with a A$2.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

Judo Capital Securities Lapse as Deferred Rights and Options Expire
Dec 22, 2025

Judo Capital Holdings Limited has confirmed the cessation of 268,385 securities in the form of deferred share rights and various options, which lapsed after the relevant vesting or performance conditions were not met by 17 December 2025. The move modestly reduces the company’s potential equity overhang from unvested rights and options, and may be interpreted as a tightening of its equity-based incentive structures, with limited immediate impact on its issued capital base but some implications for employee or executive remuneration outcomes tied to these instruments.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Buy with a A$2.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

Judo Capital Issues 26,561 New Ordinary Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Dec 22, 2025

Judo Capital Holdings has notified the market of the issue of 26,561 new ordinary fully paid shares following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted equity securities. The additional shares modestly increase the company’s issued capital and reflect the crystallisation of incentives or convertible instruments, marginally diluting existing holders while signalling ongoing utilisation of equity-based funding and remuneration structures.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Buy with a A$2.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

Judo Capital Holdings Updates Substantial Holding Status
Dec 3, 2025

Judo Capital Holdings Limited has announced a change in its substantial holding status, indicating that a significant shareholder, State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries, has ceased to be a substantial holder as of December 1, 2025. This change may impact the company’s shareholder structure and could have implications for its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Buy with a A$1.95 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 14, 2025