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Judo Capital Holdings Limited (AU:JDO)
ASX:JDO
Australian Market

Judo Capital Holdings Limited (JDO) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:JDO

Judo Capital Holdings Limited

(Sydney:JDO)

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Neutral 56 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
AU$2.00
▲(22.70% Upside)
Judo Capital Holdings Limited shows strong financial performance with impressive revenue growth and improving profitability. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and valuation metrics indicate moderate pricing without a dividend yield. The company must address leverage and cash flow issues to enhance its financial stability.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue growth & improving profitability
A 226.5% revenue jump and a shift to an 8.13% net profit margin indicate the franchise is scaling lending and converting growth to earnings. Durable loan growth should sustain net interest income and improve operating leverage if credit quality remains controlled.
Focused, relationship-led SME banking model
A relationship-led SME strategy generates sticky client deposits and recurring lending opportunities, supporting stable net interest margins and lower customer churn. This niche focus creates durable competitive differentiation versus generalist banks in SME services.
Improving leverage management and ROE
A meaningful reduction in leverage plus rising ROE points to stronger capital positioning and better shareholder capital utilization. Continued deleveraging supports regulatory resilience and reduces insolvency risk while enabling measured loan growth.
Negative Factors
Leverage remains elevated
Even after improving, elevated leverage keeps the bank sensitive to credit losses and funding stress. High debt levels constrain capital flexibility, may increase regulatory capital requirements, and can limit sustainable dividend or growth capacity over months.
Declining operating cash flow / negative FCF growth
Falling operating cash flow and negative FCF growth reduce internal funding for loans and working capital. Reliance on external funding could rise, increasing funding cost sensitivity and constraining organic expansion or strategic investments over the medium term.
Gross profit margin deterioration
A declining gross profit margin signals cost pressures or margin squeeze that can erode the benefits of top-line growth. If sustained, margin erosion forces either higher loan pricing (risking demand) or cost cuts that could impair service levels and long-term growth.

Judo Capital Holdings Limited (JDO) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Judo Capital Holdings Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJudo Capital Holdings Limited provides various banking products and services for small and medium businesses in Australia. It accepts term deposits; and provides business loans, lines of credit, home loans, asset financing, equipment loan, and bank guarantees. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is based in Southbank, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyJudo Capital Holdings generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned on its lending portfolio. The company originates loans to SMEs and charges interest on these loans, which constitutes a significant portion of its revenue. Additionally, Judo may earn fees from loan origination, processing, and servicing. The company’s focus on the SME sector allows it to tap into a market that often faces challenges in obtaining financing from traditional banks. Partnerships with financial advisors and industry groups also enhance Judo's reach and contribute to its revenue by increasing loan origination opportunities. The growth in the SME lending market and the company's ability to offer customized financial solutions further drive its earnings.

Judo Capital Holdings Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Judo Capital Holdings Limited exhibits strong revenue growth and improving profitability, reflecting a positive business trajectory. The balance sheet shows improved leverage management, though high debt levels remain a risk. Cash flow challenges are evident, with negative growth in free cash flow. Overall, the company is on a growth path but must address leverage and cash flow issues to ensure long-term financial stability.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Judo Capital Holdings Limited has shown impressive revenue growth with a 226.51% increase in the latest year, indicating strong business expansion. The net profit margin improved significantly to 8.13% from negative figures in earlier years, reflecting enhanced profitability. However, the gross profit margin has decreased, suggesting rising costs or pricing pressures. Overall, the income statement reflects a positive growth trajectory with improving profitability.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved from 3.06 to 1.85, indicating better leverage management. However, it remains relatively high, posing potential financial risk. The return on equity has improved to 5.12%, showing better utilization of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure. While improvements are evident, high leverage remains a concern.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Operating cash flow has decreased, and free cash flow growth is negative, indicating potential cash management challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.45, suggesting efficient cash generation relative to earnings. However, the decline in cash flow metrics warrants attention to ensure liquidity and operational stability.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.06B1.06B326.60M579.60M156.50M131.72M
Gross Profit334.70M334.70M384.80M579.60M156.50M131.72M
EBITDA125.60M141.10M120.70M116.10M0.00-653.00K
Net Income86.40M86.40M69.90M73.40M-7.70M28.81M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets14.98B14.98B13.20B12.15B9.41B7.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.47B2.47B654.60M633.00M3.20B3.88B
Total Debt3.12B3.12B3.15B4.52B3.83B3.53B
Total Liabilities13.29B13.29B11.63B10.67B3.85B3.55B
Stockholders Equity1.69B1.69B1.57B1.48B1.40B1.36B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-712.60M125.50M172.40M244.70M71.30M4.47M
Operating Cash Flow-712.60M136.60M197.80M272.10M84.40M17.16M
Investing Cash Flow-824.70M-21.20M-1.03B-2.50B455.10M-4.58B
Financing Cash Flow1.62B-30.70M897.40M2.54B599.80M4.69B

Judo Capital Holdings Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1.63
Price Trends
50DMA
1.73
Positive
100DMA
1.71
Positive
200DMA
1.64
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.04
Positive
RSI
63.56
Neutral
STOCH
66.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:JDO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.63 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.83, below the 50-day MA of 1.73, and below the 200-day MA of 1.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:JDO.

Judo Capital Holdings Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
56
Neutral
AU$2.13B24.555.31%16.78%22.86%
56
Neutral
AU$809.02M8.6712.11%11.71%-6.49%-5.40%
53
Neutral
AU$785.65M17.615.92%4.63%26.01%-17.55%
52
Neutral
AU$34.45M26.851.06%-7.19%
50
Neutral
AU$1.21B9.0011.19%11.83%2.11%15.71%
46
Neutral
AU$1.01B17.585.01%6.60%14.81%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:JDO
Judo Capital Holdings Limited
1.90
-0.02
-1.04%
AU:BBC
BNK Banking Corporation Limited
0.29
<0.01
3.57%
AU:PPM
Pepper Money Ltd
1.82
0.58
46.77%
AU:LFS
Latitude Group Holdings Ltd.
0.97
-0.11
-10.19%
AU:LFG
Liberty Financial Group Ltd
3.97
0.72
22.15%
AU:MYS
Mystate Limited
4.63
0.33
7.67%

Judo Capital Holdings Limited Corporate Events

ECP Asset Management Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Judo Capital
Jan 19, 2026

ECP Asset Management Pty Ltd, together with EC Pohl & Co Pty Ltd and related entities, has notified Judo Capital Holdings Limited that it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder as of 12 January 2026, following changes in its relevant interest in the company’s voting securities since its previous notice in May 2025. The exit of this substantial holder alters Judo Capital’s share register and may modestly impact perceptions of the company’s shareholder base and governance dynamics, although no changes in associations or control arrangements were disclosed in the filing.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

Judo Bank Lifts Loan Book to $13.4bn and Reaffirms FY26 Growth Targets
Jan 1, 2026

Judo Capital Holdings reported that its unaudited gross loans and advances reached approximately $13.4 billion as at 31 December 2025, reflecting strong loan growth in the first half of FY26 and reinforcing the appeal of its relationship-led SME lending proposition. Management reaffirmed guidance for FY26 gross loans and advances of $14.2–14.7 billion and profit before tax of $180–190 million, up from $125.6 million in FY25, signaling increasing operating leverage and suggesting improved profitability and scalability for shareholders and other stakeholders ahead of the upcoming first-half results announcement in February 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Buy with a A$2.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Shareholder in Judo Capital Holdings
Jan 1, 2026

State Street Corporation, through several of its asset management and custody subsidiaries, has lodged a notice that it has ceased to be a substantial holder in Judo Capital Holdings Limited as of 29 December 2025. The change reflects a reduction in State Street’s relevant voting interest below the substantial holding threshold, signaling a shift in the share register that may slightly broaden Judo’s investor base but does not, on its own, indicate any operational or strategic change at the bank.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Buy with a A$2.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

Judo Bank Switches Trustee for ASX-Listed Capital Notes
Dec 22, 2025

Judo Capital Holdings Limited has announced a change in trustee for its ASX-listed Capital Notes (JDOPA), issued in November 2023, with Certane CT Pty Ltd intending to retire and Melbourne Securities Corporation Limited (MSC Trustees) appointed as the new trustee effective 19 December 2025 under the existing Capital Notes Trust Deed and relevant Corporations Act provisions. The company emphasised that this trustee transition, involving entities within the same corporate group, will not alter the rights or interests of Capital Noteholders and requires no action from investors, indicating the change is administrative in nature with limited operational or financial impact on stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Buy with a A$2.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

Judo Capital Securities Lapse as Deferred Rights and Options Expire
Dec 22, 2025

Judo Capital Holdings Limited has confirmed the cessation of 268,385 securities in the form of deferred share rights and various options, which lapsed after the relevant vesting or performance conditions were not met by 17 December 2025. The move modestly reduces the company’s potential equity overhang from unvested rights and options, and may be interpreted as a tightening of its equity-based incentive structures, with limited immediate impact on its issued capital base but some implications for employee or executive remuneration outcomes tied to these instruments.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Buy with a A$2.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

Judo Capital Issues 26,561 New Ordinary Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Dec 22, 2025

Judo Capital Holdings has notified the market of the issue of 26,561 new ordinary fully paid shares following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted equity securities. The additional shares modestly increase the company’s issued capital and reflect the crystallisation of incentives or convertible instruments, marginally diluting existing holders while signalling ongoing utilisation of equity-based funding and remuneration structures.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Buy with a A$2.02 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

Judo Capital Holdings Updates Substantial Holding Status
Dec 3, 2025

Judo Capital Holdings Limited has announced a change in its substantial holding status, indicating that a significant shareholder, State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries, has ceased to be a substantial holder as of December 1, 2025. This change may impact the company’s shareholder structure and could have implications for its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Buy with a A$1.95 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

Judo Capital Unveils 2026 Financial Calendar
Nov 26, 2025

Judo Capital Holdings Limited has announced its financial calendar for 2026, detailing key dates for its half-year and full-year results announcements, as well as its Annual General Meeting. This schedule provides stakeholders with a clear timeline for the company’s financial disclosures and governance activities, ensuring transparency and facilitating investor planning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

Judo Capital Holdings Announces Change in Substantial Holders
Nov 18, 2025

Judo Capital Holdings Limited has announced a change in its substantial holders, as State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders as of November 14, 2025. This change in substantial holding may impact the company’s voting securities and could influence its strategic decisions and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

Judo Capital Announces New Distribution for Capital Notes
Nov 18, 2025

Judo Capital Holdings Limited has announced a new distribution for its capital notes, with a payment amount of AUD 1.79129000 scheduled for February 16, 2026. This distribution is subject to the company’s discretion and standard payment conditions, reflecting Judo’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

Yarra Capital Management Ceases Substantial Holding in Judo Capital
Nov 10, 2025

Yarra Capital Management Limited and its associated entities have ceased to be substantial holders in Judo Capital Holdings Limited as of November 6, 2025. This change in substantial holding, which involved both purchasing and selling of shares, may impact the company’s shareholder dynamics and influence its market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

Judo Capital Director Increases Indirect Holdings
Nov 7, 2025

Judo Capital Holdings Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically involving Peter John Hodgson. The change involved the acquisition of 400 Capital Notes through an on-market trade, increasing his indirect holdings in the PJ Hodgson & RA Ruddy ATF PH SM Super Fund to 800 Capital Notes. This adjustment in holdings reflects a strategic financial decision by the director, potentially impacting the company’s financial structure and investor perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

State Street Corporation Ceases Substantial Holding in Judo Capital
Nov 5, 2025

Judo Capital Holdings Limited has announced a change in its substantial holding status, as State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders. This change reflects a shift in the voting securities held by State Street, impacting their influence within Judo Capital Holdings Limited.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:JDO) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Judo Capital Holdings Limited stock, see the AU:JDO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 14, 2025