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Liberty Financial Group Ltd (AU:LFG)
ASX:LFG
Australian Market

Liberty Financial Group Ltd (LFG) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:LFG

Liberty Financial Group Ltd

(Sydney:LFG)

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Neutral 50 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
AU$3.50
▼(-17.45% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:10/23/25
Liberty Financial Group Ltd's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance and valuation. The financial performance is concerning due to declining revenue and high leverage, which pose significant risks. However, the stock's valuation appears favorable with a low P/E ratio and high dividend yield, providing some upside potential. Technical analysis indicates mixed momentum, with no strong bullish signals. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events limits additional insights.
Positive Factors
Diversified business model
Liberty's multi-segment model (insurance, asset management, lending) creates multiple, partly independent revenue streams and cross‑sell opportunities. That structural diversification reduces concentration risk and supports more stable cash inflows and customer retention over months.
Sustained operational margins
Very high gross margin and robust EBIT/EBITDA indicate durable pricing power and effective cost controls across core businesses. Margin strength helps preserve earnings and cash generation capacity even if revenue growth is weak, supporting reinvestment and resilience.
Moderate return on equity
An ROE around 11% signals the company can generate reasonable returns on shareholder capital. Combined with recurring fee income from asset management and predictable lending interest, this level of ROE supports ongoing profitability and long‑term shareholder value creation.
Negative Factors
Sharp revenue contraction
A near 42% annual revenue drop is a structural red flag: it reduces economies of scale, can erode market position, and constrains investment in distribution and product development. Without revenue stabilization, long‑term growth and competitive dynamics are impaired.
High financial leverage
Very high debt relative to equity elevates refinancing and interest rate risk and limits strategic flexibility. Leverage magnifies earnings volatility and can force prioritization of debt service over growth investments, posing durable downside in stressed market conditions.
Weak cash generation
Severely negative FCF growth and minimal operating cash conversion mean earnings are not translating to cash. This undermines the firm's ability to reduce leverage, fund operations, or invest organically without external financing — a persistent liquidity risk.

Liberty Financial Group Ltd (LFG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Liberty Financial Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLiberty Financial Group Limited engages in the financial services business in Australia and New Zealand. It operates in three segments: Residential Finance, Secured Finance, and Financial Services. The company offers residential and commercial mortgages; motor vehicle finance; unsecured and secured personal loans; secured and unsecured loans; SME LOANS; and self-managed superannuation loans. It also offers mortgage broking services; life and general insurance solutions; and specialty lending, finance and insurance broking, receivables, consumer insurance, underwriting, real estate, and fund management services. The company was founded in 1997 and is based in Melbourne, Australia. Liberty Financial Group Limited is a subsidiary of Vesta Funding BV.
How the Company Makes MoneyLiberty Financial Group Ltd generates revenue through multiple streams. Primarily, the company earns income from premiums collected on its insurance policies, which include life, health, and property insurance. Additionally, LFG derives revenue from fees associated with investment management services, including advisory fees, management fees on assets under management, and performance fees for exceeding investment benchmarks. The lending segment contributes to revenue through interest income from personal loans and mortgages. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and investment firms also bolster revenue, enabling cross-selling opportunities and access to a broader client base. Furthermore, LFG leverages its expertise in financial planning to provide consulting services, further diversifying its income sources.

Liberty Financial Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Liberty Financial Group Ltd faces significant challenges across its financial statements. The income statement shows a sharp decline in revenue, impacting profitability despite strong margins. The balance sheet reflects high leverage, which could pose financial risks. The cash flow statement indicates declining cash generation, raising concerns about liquidity. Overall, the company needs to address its revenue decline and manage its debt levels to improve its financial health.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Liberty Financial Group Ltd has experienced a significant revenue decline of 41.95% in the latest year, indicating potential challenges in maintaining its market position. Despite this, the company maintains a strong gross profit margin of 100%, suggesting effective cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased compared to previous years, reflecting reduced profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain robust, indicating operational efficiency, but the overall revenue contraction is a concern.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The company's balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 12.30, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity is moderate at 11.20%, reflecting decent profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting a heavy reliance on debt financing. Overall, the balance sheet reflects high leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
30
Negative
Liberty Financial Group Ltd's cash flow statement reveals a concerning trend with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -118.38%, indicating declining cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.02, suggesting challenges in converting income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, indicating that most of the net income is being converted into free cash flow, but the overall cash flow situation is weak.
BreakdownTTMJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.02B604.51M1.46B1.23B868.94M852.97M
Gross Profit870.34M604.51M1.46B995.25M637.89M643.12M
EBITDA1.03B1.09B1.06B859.41M731.14M510.11M
Net Income144.79M133.97M115.81M181.52M219.63M185.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets16.37B16.24B16.31B15.69B14.33B13.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments922.87M1.55B1.58B1.34B661.33M12.89B
Total Debt14.80B14.71B14.57B14.03B12.81B12.25B
Total Liabilities15.17B15.05B15.11B14.52B13.21B12.53B
Stockholders Equity1.19B1.20B1.20B1.17B1.12B1.04B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow259.71M116.36M-932.57M-442.74M-483.76M128.64M
Operating Cash Flow264.88M118.08M-929.69M-435.63M-480.30M132.96M
Investing Cash Flow18.92M25.89M30.03M-12.85M-15.40M-24.37M
Financing Cash Flow-265.71M-196.46M497.67M1.14B-68.38M-3.19M

Liberty Financial Group Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price4.24
Price Trends
50DMA
3.99
Negative
100DMA
4.02
Negative
200DMA
3.82
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.07
Positive
RSI
32.01
Neutral
STOCH
10.38
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:LFG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.84, above the 50-day MA of 3.99, and above the 200-day MA of 3.82, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.38 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:LFG.

Liberty Financial Group Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
69
Neutral
AU$986.82M9.1512.11%11.71%-6.49%-5.40%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
64
Neutral
AU$163.08M6.2995.31%19.38%
59
Neutral
AU$799.79M5.4211.07%4.81%5.01%85.56%
52
Neutral
AU$987.75M11.505.01%6.60%14.81%
50
Neutral
AU$1.11B4.1011.19%11.83%2.11%15.71%
43
Neutral
AU$85.32M-1.10-42.59%-9.56%-392.31%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:LFG
Liberty Financial Group Ltd
3.67
0.24
7.00%
AU:CCP
Credit Corp Group Limited
11.75
-2.21
-15.80%
AU:PLT
Plenti Group Ltd.
0.90
0.08
9.15%
AU:PPM
Pepper Money Ltd
2.22
0.94
73.44%
AU:LFS
Latitude Group Holdings Ltd.
0.95
-0.11
-10.38%
AU:MME
MoneyMe Ltd.
0.11
-0.03
-22.22%

Liberty Financial Group Ltd Corporate Events

Liberty Financial Group Trust Lifts Half-Year Net Assets and Maintains Stable Operations
Feb 23, 2026

Liberty Financial Group Trust, an Australian managed investment scheme specialising in securitised and warehouse trust investments, is overseen by Responsible Entity Liberty Fiduciary Ltd from its Melbourne headquarters. The trust’s governance saw a change in chair during the period, with Michael Hawker appointed and Peter Hawkins retiring.

For the half-year ended 31 December 2025, the trust reported an increase in net assets attributable to unitholders of $92,000, more than double the prior corresponding period. It paid two distributions of 7.5 cents per unit in October and December, and directors reported no significant changes in the state of affairs or material subsequent events likely to affect future operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LFG) stock is a Hold with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liberty Financial Group Ltd stock, see the AU:LFG Stock Forecast page.

Liberty Financial Group Announces Quarterly Distribution of AUD 0.075 per Security
Feb 22, 2026

Liberty Financial Group has declared a quarterly distribution of AUD 0.075 per fully paid ordinary stapled security for the period ending 31 March 2026, reinforcing its practice of providing regular cash returns to investors. The distribution will trade ex‑distribution on 10 March, with a record date of 11 March and payment scheduled for 26 March 2026, giving securityholders clear visibility on timing and reinforcing the group’s income proposition in the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LFG) stock is a Hold with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liberty Financial Group Ltd stock, see the AU:LFG Stock Forecast page.

Liberty Group Declares Interim Quarterly Distribution to Securityholders
Feb 22, 2026

Liberty Group, a diversified finance provider in Australia and New Zealand, focuses on lending, insurance and investment services across retail and business segments, supported by significant access to global capital markets. Its broad product suite and long operating history position it as an important non‑bank player in the regional financial services landscape.

Liberty Group has declared an interim quarterly unfranked distribution of 7.5 cents per security from the Liberty Financial Group Trust for the three months ending 31 March 2026, with a record date of 11 March and payment on 26 March 2026. The payout underscores ongoing capital returns to securityholders and signals management’s confidence in the group’s cash generation and balance‑sheet strength during the current trading period.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LFG) stock is a Hold with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liberty Financial Group Ltd stock, see the AU:LFG Stock Forecast page.

Liberty Group Lifts Half-Year Profit and Returns on Equity
Feb 22, 2026

Liberty Group, a diversified Australian and New Zealand finance provider spanning mortgages, motor vehicle finance, personal and business loans, broking, insurance and investments, reported interim results for the six months to 31 December 2025. The company, which has raised over $54 billion in global capital markets, continues to expand its customer base and maintain a substantial $14.8 billion portfolio of financial assets.

For the half year, Liberty Group increased statutory net profit after tax to $76.4 million and delivered a 12% rise in underlying NPATA to $82.3 million compared with the prior six-month period, reflecting stronger underlying earnings. The group maintained a stable leverage ratio of 13.7 times and lifted its underlying cash return on equity to 13.8%, underscoring improved profitability and capital efficiency that support its competitive position in the regional non-bank finance sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LFG) stock is a Hold with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liberty Financial Group Ltd stock, see the AU:LFG Stock Forecast page.

Liberty Financial boosts profit and returns on strong margins and funding
Feb 22, 2026

Liberty Financial Group reported solid first‑half results to 31 December 2025, highlighting its role as a major non‑bank lender across mortgages, vehicle finance, personal and business lending, broking, insurance and investments in Australia and New Zealand. The group’s broad product set and access to global capital markets underpin its growing customer base of nearly one million borrowers and investors.

For the half year, Liberty lifted underlying NPATA by 12% to $82.3 million and statutory NPAT to $76.4 million, supported by a stable $14.8 billion asset base and an improved underlying cash return on equity of 13.8%. Management cited industry‑leading net interest margins, tight cost control and resilient credit quality in a competitive lending market, while a strong capital and liquidity position, including $5 billion of new funding and a BBB rating, positions the group to support further customer growth despite ongoing interest rate and economic pressures.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LFG) stock is a Hold with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liberty Financial Group Ltd stock, see the AU:LFG Stock Forecast page.

Liberty Financial Group Adds 252,348 Stapled Securities Through Conversion of Unquoted Equity
Jan 15, 2026

Liberty Financial Group has notified the ASX of the issue and transfer of several tranches of fully paid stapled ordinary securities following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted equity instruments. Across multiple dates in November and December 2025, the group will add a combined 252,348 new stapled securities to its capital structure, reflecting the crystallisation of unquoted options or other convertible securities into listed equity, which marginally increases the company’s free float and may slightly dilute existing holders while signalling ongoing participation in equity-based arrangements.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LFG) stock is a Hold with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liberty Financial Group Ltd stock, see the AU:LFG Stock Forecast page.

Liberty Financial Group Reports Expiry and Lapse of Option Securities
Jan 15, 2026

Liberty Financial Group has notified the ASX that a series of LFGAA options, carrying various expiry dates and exercise prices, have ceased, primarily through expiry without being exercised or the lapse of conditional rights that could not be satisfied. The cessation affects several tranches totaling millions of options through late 2025, effectively reducing the company’s pool of potential future equity issuance and slightly simplifying its capital structure, with implications for dilution expectations and the composition of existing security holders’ interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LFG) stock is a Hold with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liberty Financial Group Ltd stock, see the AU:LFG Stock Forecast page.

Liberty Financial Group Reports Expiry and Lapse of Option Securities
Jan 15, 2026

Liberty Financial Group has notified the ASX that a series of LFGAA options, carrying various expiry dates and exercise prices, have ceased, primarily through expiry without being exercised or the lapse of conditional rights that could not be satisfied. The cessation affects several tranches totaling millions of options through late 2025, effectively reducing the company’s pool of potential future equity issuance and slightly simplifying its capital structure, with implications for dilution expectations and the composition of existing security holders’ interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LFG) stock is a Hold with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liberty Financial Group Ltd stock, see the AU:LFG Stock Forecast page.

Liberty Financial Group Grants Additional Options to Director Sherman Ma
Dec 31, 2025

Liberty Financial Group has disclosed a change in the interests of director Sherman Ma, who holds his main stake indirectly through entities that control Hestia Holdings BV, the indirect holding company of Vesta Funding BV, the registered holder of Liberty’s stapled securities. While Ma’s substantial holding of 228,227,245 stapled securities remains unchanged, he has been granted an additional 1,023,700 options under the Liberty Group Equity Incentive Plan at no consideration, increasing his total options to 5,020,097 and further aligning his incentives with the company’s long‑term performance and shareholder outcomes.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LFG) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liberty Financial Group Ltd stock, see the AU:LFG Stock Forecast page.

Liberty Financial Group Grants Additional Options to Director James Boyle
Dec 31, 2025

Liberty Financial Group has disclosed a change in the indirect interests of director James Boyle, held via Hollypark Holding Pty Ltd, in its stapled securities. Boyle has been granted 2,047,403 additional options over stapled securities at no consideration under the Liberty Group Equity Incentive Plan, increasing his total holdings to 9,826,482 options while his stapled securities holding remains at 4,316,582. The grant strengthens the director’s equity-linked exposure to the company and trust, aligning his incentives more closely with securityholders and reflecting the ongoing use of options-based remuneration within the Liberty Group’s capital and compensation structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LFG) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liberty Financial Group Ltd stock, see the AU:LFG Stock Forecast page.

Liberty Financial Group Director Increases Equity Exposure With New Option Grant
Dec 31, 2025

Liberty Financial Group has disclosed a change in the interests of director Peter Riedel, who has been granted 2,047,403 additional options under the Liberty Group Equity Incentive Plan, increasing his total option holding to 9,826,482 while his stapled security holdings remain unchanged. The notice also records Riedel’s contractual interest related to the Liberty Term Investment Fund, highlighting the director’s expanded equity-based exposure to the group’s performance and reinforcing the alignment of executive incentives with the company’s long-term value creation for securityholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LFG) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liberty Financial Group Ltd stock, see the AU:LFG Stock Forecast page.

Liberty Financial Group Issues 5.1 Million Unquoted Options Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Dec 31, 2025

Liberty Financial Group has notified the market that it has issued 5,118,506 unquoted options under its employee incentive scheme, identified on the ASX as LFGAA and expiring on various dates at various exercise prices. The move expands the company’s pool of employee equity incentives, potentially aligning staff remuneration more closely with shareholder interests and indicating an ongoing commitment to using equity-based compensation as part of its capital and workforce management strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LFG) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liberty Financial Group Ltd stock, see the AU:LFG Stock Forecast page.

Liberty Financial Group Announces Director’s Interest Change
Dec 8, 2025

Liberty Financial Group Limited announced a change in the director’s interest notice, specifically involving Sherman Ma. The notice detailed the forfeiture of 1,434,150 options under the Equity Incentive Plan, leaving Ma with 3,996,397 options and 228,227,245 stapled securities. This change reflects adjustments in the director’s financial interests, potentially impacting the company’s governance and stakeholder perceptions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LFG) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liberty Financial Group Ltd stock, see the AU:LFG Stock Forecast page.

Liberty Financial Group Announces Director’s Change in Securities Interest
Dec 8, 2025

Liberty Financial Group Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically concerning James Boyle, who has indirectly forfeited 2,868,294 options under the company’s Equity Incentive Plan. This adjustment leaves Boyle with 4,316,582 stapled securities and 7,779,079 options, reflecting a strategic realignment of his holdings that may impact the company’s governance and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LFG) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liberty Financial Group Ltd stock, see the AU:LFG Stock Forecast page.

Liberty Financial Group Announces Change in Director’s Interest
Dec 8, 2025

Liberty Financial Group Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically regarding Peter Riedel’s holdings. The change involved the forfeiture of 2,868,294 options under the company’s Equity Incentive Plan, resulting in a decrease in the total number of options held by the director. This adjustment reflects the company’s ongoing management of its equity plans and may impact the director’s future financial interests within the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LFG) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liberty Financial Group Ltd stock, see the AU:LFG Stock Forecast page.

Liberty Financial Group Announces Cessation of Securities
Dec 8, 2025

Liberty Financial Group Ltd announced the cessation of 7,170,738 securities due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This development may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LFG) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Liberty Financial Group Ltd stock, see the AU:LFG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 23, 2025