Mayfield Childcare Ltd. (MFD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$37.34M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 23.49K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.04
• Revenue Growth: 18.84%
• EPS Growth: -1657.69%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 1,100
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Personal Products & Services
• EPS (TTM): <0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 75,424,610
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 24,882
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 23,486
• PEG Ratio: -1.15
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.49
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.37
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.56 ▲(13.47% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 10/29/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 10/29/25

Mayfield Childcare Ltd. benefits from strong financial performance, particularly in revenue growth and cash flow management. However, high leverage and low profitability margins are significant risks. The technical analysis shows a positive trend, but valuation concerns due to a negative P/E ratio and no dividend yield weigh heavily on the overall score.

Positive Factors

Sustained Revenue Growth

Consistent mid-teens revenue growth reflects durable demand for childcare services and successful capacity or pricing expansion. Over 2–6 months this trend supports predictable top-line momentum, aiding planning, expansion decisions, and long-term contract or occupancy leverage.

Strong Free Cash Flow Generation

Very strong free cash flow growth indicates the business converts revenue into spendable cash efficiently. This supports sustainable reinvestment, maintenance capex, or debt reduction, enhancing financial flexibility and resilience through cycles beyond short-term market moves.

Robust Gross and Improving EBIT Margins

Extremely high gross margin and improving EBIT margin point to structural cost advantages or scalable delivery models. Sustained operating leverage can protect profitability against volatility and support margins as revenue scales, strengthening long-term competitiveness.

Negative Factors

High Financial Leverage

A D/E ratio above 2.5 signals substantial leverage that constrains strategic flexibility. Overcoming downturns or funding growth may require refinancing or higher interest costs, increasing vulnerability to rate moves and reducing capacity to invest organically without raising risk.

Very Low Net Profit Margin

Near-zero net margin implies most revenue is consumed by non-operating costs, interest, or one-offs, limiting retained earnings. Persistently thin bottom-line profitability restricts capacity to self-fund growth, pay down debt, or absorb shocks without structural changes.

Weak Return on Equity

ROE near zero indicates shareholder capital is generating minimal returns relative to peers. Combined with high leverage, this suggests inefficient capital allocation or earnings dilution risk, undermining long-term shareholder value unless operating performance or capital structure improves.

Mayfield Childcare Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mayfield Childcare Limited provides long day childcare (LDC) services in Victoria, Australia. The company operates 36 LDC centers in Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia. Mayfield Childcare Limited was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Malvern East, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Mayfield Childcare Ltd. generates revenue primarily through tuition fees charged to parents for childcare services. These fees vary based on the age of the child, the specific programs selected, and the number of hours required. In addition to tuition, MFD may offer supplementary services such as after-school care, holiday camps, and educational workshops, which contribute additional revenue. The company also seeks partnerships with local authorities and governmental organizations, potentially receiving funding or grants aimed at supporting early childhood education initiatives. Furthermore, MFD may engage in community outreach programs or collaborations with educational institutions that enhance its visibility and attract more clients, thereby bolstering its earnings.

Mayfield Childcare Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mayfield Childcare Ltd. shows strong revenue growth and effective cash flow management, with a notable increase in free cash flow. However, high leverage and low net profit margins indicate financial risks and limited profitability.

Income Statement

Mayfield Childcare Ltd. shows a strong revenue growth trajectory, with a notable increase of 15.41% from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin remains robust at 100%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is low at 0.27%, suggesting high operating costs or other expenses impacting profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins show improvement, with EBIT margin at 19.86% for 2024, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.58, indicating significant leverage which could pose financial risk. However, the equity ratio at 26.60% shows adequate capitalization. Return on equity has improved, though it remains low at 0.37%, suggesting limited returns on shareholder investments. The balance sheet reflects a stable asset base with consistent shareholder equity.

Cash Flow

Mayfield Childcare Ltd. demonstrates strong cash flow management with a free cash flow growth rate of 44.98% in 2024, indicating efficient capital expenditure and operational cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is significantly high at 49.26, suggesting robust cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow to net income ratio also supports the company's ability to generate cash from operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	94.01M	87.16M	76.51M	68.98M	39.73M	32.79M
Gross Profit	48.54M	87.16M	3.22M	10.25M	6.78M	2.65M
EBITDA	5.83M	17.54M	13.18M	20.22M	9.99M	10.67M
Net Income	-20.84M	239.64K	-1.43M	4.88M	2.57M	3.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	221.55M	246.10M	235.71M	219.23M	226.61M	71.40M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	380.57K	103.00K	362.67K	2.66M	2.27M	1.57M
Total Debt	163.03M	168.63M	160.41M	141.09M	144.08M	36.50M
Total Liabilities	173.66M	180.64M	170.32M	149.45M	161.01M	41.30M
Stockholders Equity	47.90M	65.46M	65.38M	69.78M	65.61M	30.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	9.42M	10.56M	7.28M	13.77M	8.83M	9.44M
Operating Cash Flow	10.53M	11.81M	9.19M	15.12M	9.86M	10.45M
Investing Cash Flow	-3.68M	-3.82M	-6.29M	-1.16M	-11.65M	-1.08M
Financing Cash Flow	-6.62M	-8.24M	-5.20M	-10.88M	2.53M	-8.46M

Mayfield Childcare Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 0.49
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:MFD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.51, below the 50-day MA of 0.50, and above the 200-day MA of 0.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.06 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:MFD.

Mayfield Childcare Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MFD	66 Neutral	AU$37.34M	-1.81	-37.06%	―	18.84%	-1657.69%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
EVO	58 Neutral	AU$111.92M	10.48	12.33%	9.92%	―	―
NDO	56 Neutral	AU$105.57M	16.20	12.24%	12.92%	26.16%	―
KME	48 Neutral	AU$30.49M	-7.51	10.80%	1.67%	-2.81%	-503.02%

Mayfield Childcare Ltd. Corporate Events

Mayfield Childcare Issues Q4 FY25 Investor Update With Cautionary Guidance

Mayfield Childcare Limited has released a Q4 FY25 investor update presentation outlining summary information on its current activities and financial position, prepared for informational purposes for existing and potential investors. The company emphasises that the presentation is not an offer or financial product advice, contains no guarantees on future performance, and that any performance indications are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, directing investors instead to consider the full suite of its ASX disclosures when making investment decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MFD) stock is a Hold with a A$0.57 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mayfield Childcare Ltd. stock, see the AU:MFD Stock Forecast page.

Mayfield Childcare Lifts Margins and Occupancy Amid Takeover Costs and Sector Pressures

Mayfield Childcare reported steady fourth-quarter revenue of $23.8 million as occupancy stabilised and operational efficiencies lifted underlying centre EBITDA margin from 11% to 12%, with underlying centre EBITDA rising 7% quarter-on-quarter to $2.9 million. Spot occupancy improved to 64.8%, Mayfield outpaced a key listed peer in occupancy growth between August and November 2025, and Precious Cargo remained EBITDA positive, while the company continued investing in marketing, quality upgrades and performance improvement programs amid a challenging cost environment, extraordinary expenses tied to defending a takeover bid, and significant grant-related backpay that turned operating cash flow negative for the quarter but left borrowing capacity intact.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MFD) stock is a Hold with a A$0.48 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mayfield Childcare Ltd. stock, see the AU:MFD Stock Forecast page.

Mayfield Childcare Launches Allied Health Arm to Tap NDIS Growth

Mayfield Childcare has launched Mayfield 360, a new allied health services division that will deliver occupational therapy, speech pathology and developmental services across its early childhood education and care network, integrating clinical support with learning programs to improve outcomes for children and strengthen support for families. By leveraging its existing centre network as a scalable platform, the company aims to tap into the fast‑growing A$4–5 billion annual allied health segment linked to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, diversify earnings, and enhance its operating model at a time when its core childcare operations are showing improving occupancy and underlying centre-level EBITDA performance, signalling a broader strategic push toward sustainable, long-term growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MFD) stock is a Hold with a A$0.48 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mayfield Childcare Ltd. stock, see the AU:MFD Stock Forecast page.

Mayfield Board Urges Shareholders to Reject Embark’s Takeover Bid

Mayfield Childcare Limited has issued a formal Target’s Statement in response to an unsolicited, conditional off‑market takeover bid from Embark Early Education Limited for all Mayfield ordinary shares, with the Mayfield board unanimously recommending that shareholders reject the offer and instead take no action. The document outlines that it does not constitute personal financial advice, explains that some content may be forward‑looking and subject to industry and market risks, clarifies that information about Embark is based solely on public sources, and notes legal, jurisdictional, privacy and disclosure considerations for shareholders accessing and relying on the statement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MFD) stock is a Hold with a A$0.48 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mayfield Childcare Ltd. stock, see the AU:MFD Stock Forecast page.

Embark Completes Dispatch of Bidder’s Statement in Takeover Bid for Mayfield Childcare

Embark Early Education Limited has confirmed it has completed dispatch of its replacement bidder’s statement to all eligible shareholders and performance rights holders of Mayfield Childcare Limited, formally commencing its off‑market takeover offer for all Mayfield shares it does not already own. The offer, dated 5 January 2026, moves the transaction into the active response phase for Mayfield investors, marking a significant step in Embark’s bid to consolidate its position in the early childhood education sector and potentially reshape Mayfield’s ownership structure and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MFD) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mayfield Childcare Ltd. stock, see the AU:MFD Stock Forecast page.

Embark Early Education Launches Takeover Bid for Mayfield Childcare

Embark Early Education Limited has launched an off‑market takeover bid to acquire all ordinary shares of Mayfield Childcare Limited, offering shareholders a choice between scrip consideration of one Embark share for every 1.24 Mayfield shares or a cash alternative of A$0.50 per Mayfield share, with a default to scrip if no election is made. The bid, formalised in a replacement bidder’s statement dated 5 January 2026 and open until 5 March 2026 unless extended or withdrawn, signals further consolidation in the early childhood education sector and could materially reshape Mayfield’s ownership structure, giving its investors the option to participate in a larger combined platform or crystallise value in cash.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MFD) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mayfield Childcare Ltd. stock, see the AU:MFD Stock Forecast page.

Embark Updates Takeover Documentation for Mayfield Childcare Bid

Embark Early Education Limited has issued a replacement bidder’s statement for its previously announced off‑market takeover bid to acquire all ordinary shares in Mayfield Childcare Limited that it does not already own. Under the offer, Mayfield shareholders can choose either scrip consideration of one Embark share for every 1.24 Mayfield shares held or a cash payment of A$0.50 per Mayfield share, with scrip as the default if no election is made. The updated documentation, lodged with regulators and to be released in clean and marked-up forms, advances Embark’s acquisition process and signals continued consolidation in the early childhood education sector, with implications for Mayfield shareholders’ ownership structure and valuation options.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MFD) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mayfield Childcare Ltd. stock, see the AU:MFD Stock Forecast page.

Embark Early Education Launches Off‑Market Takeover Bid for Mayfield Childcare

Embark Early Education Limited has formally launched an off‑market takeover bid for all ordinary shares in Mayfield Childcare Limited, lodging its bidder’s statement with regulators and sending it to Mayfield. Mayfield shareholders are being offered a choice between scrip consideration of one Embark share for every 1.24 Mayfield shares or cash consideration of A$0.50 per Mayfield share, with scrip as the default if no election is made, marking a potential consolidation move within the Australian early childhood education sector and potentially altering the ownership and strategic direction of Mayfield.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MFD) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mayfield Childcare Ltd. stock, see the AU:MFD Stock Forecast page.

Mayfield Childcare Reports Rising Occupancy and Strengthened Position for FY26

Mayfield Childcare Ltd. reported rising occupancy across its childcare services portfolio, with steady improvements in operational performance and cost management. Despite broader industry challenges, the company has seen positive momentum heading into FY26, reinforcing its position as a competitive player in the childcare sector. The company leveraged stronger center leadership, enhanced marketing efforts, and disciplined wage control to deliver consistent growth in occupancy and earnings, positioning itself for continued success in the coming year.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MFD) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mayfield Childcare Ltd. stock, see the AU:MFD Stock Forecast page.

Mayfield Childcare Updates Securities Trading Policy

Mayfield Childcare Limited has updated its Securities Trading Policy to include references to Trading Windows related to the release of the company’s Quarterly Report. This administrative update aligns with ASX Listing Rule 12.10 and reflects Mayfield’s commitment to maintaining transparency and regulatory compliance, potentially impacting how stakeholders engage with the company’s securities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MFD) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mayfield Childcare Ltd. stock, see the AU:MFD Stock Forecast page.

Embark Early Education Revises Takeover Bid Timeline for Mayfield Childcare

Embark Early Education Limited, a company listed on the ASX, has announced a revision in its timeline for a conditional off-market takeover bid for Mayfield Childcare Limited. Initially planned for November and December 2025, the new indicative dates for the ASIC lodgement and dispatch of the Bidder’s Statement are now set for December 19, 2025, and January 5, 2026, respectively. This adjustment reflects Embark’s ongoing efforts to finalize the necessary documentation, potentially impacting the timeline for stakeholders involved in the acquisition process.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MFD) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mayfield Childcare Ltd. stock, see the AU:MFD Stock Forecast page.

Mayfield Childcare Corrects ASX Appendix 4C Filing

Mayfield Childcare Limited announced a correction to its Appendix 4C lodged with the ASX on 31 October 2025, due to an administrative oversight where the document was not dated and signed. The updated document has been released, ensuring compliance with ASX requirements. This correction is crucial for maintaining transparency and accuracy in financial reporting, which is vital for stakeholder trust and the company’s reputation in the childcare industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MFD) stock is a Hold with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mayfield Childcare Ltd. stock, see the AU:MFD Stock Forecast page.