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Melbana Energy Limited (AU:MAY)
ASX:MAY

Melbana Energy Limited (MAY) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:MAY

Melbana Energy Limited

(Sydney:MAY)

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Neutral 49 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.01
▲(0.00% Upside)
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance driven by zero revenue, recurring operating losses, and persistent negative operating/free cash flow. A low-debt balance sheet provides some resilience, but limited technical data and a negative P/E (loss-making) keep the overall profile below average.
Positive Factors
Low Leverage / Strong Balance Sheet
Minimal debt reduces refinancing and interest burdens, preserving financial flexibility to fund exploration, sustain operations during low-price periods, or wait for farm-out partners. This structural strength lowers solvency risk and supports multi-month project optionality.
Focused Upstream Asset Base
A clear upstream focus with assets in Cuba and Australia provides defined pathways from seismic to appraisal and potential development. Geographic and project diversification increases the chance that at least one prospect converts to production, creating durable value if exploration is successful.
Monetisation via Farm-outs and Sell-downs
A business model that emphasises farm-outs and sell-downs lets Melbana shift capital intensity to partners, de-risk wells, and capture value without needing immediate production. Structurally this supports capital efficiency and execution flexibility over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Zero Revenue and Loss-making Operations
Absence of recurring revenue and persistent operating losses mean no durable earnings base. Over months this forces dependence on capital raises or partners to fund activity, limiting autonomy and making it harder to finance development or respond to cost overruns.
Persistent Negative Cash Flow
Consistent operating and free cash flow deficits indicate ongoing cash burn from exploration and investments. Structurally this increases reliance on external funding, raises dilution or refinancing risk, and constrains the company’s ability to advance projects without partners.
Earnings Volatility and Inconsistent Profitability
Intermittent profits followed by meaningful losses show earnings are driven by episodic items or one-offs rather than stable operations. This volatility undermines long-term planning, complicates partner negotiations and capital raising, and reduces investor confidence in sustainable returns.

Melbana Energy Limited (MAY) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Melbana Energy Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMelbana Energy Limited engages in the oil and gas exploration in Cuba and Australia. The company holds a 100% interest in the Tassie Shoal Methanol and LNG project located in Australia. It also holds a 100% interest in the Santa Cruz oil field located in Cuba; and WA-544-P and NT/P87 permits covering an area of approximately 4,000km2 in the Petrel sub-basin, as well as a 30% interest in Block 9 that covers an area of 2,344km2 located in Cuba. The company was formerly known as MEO Australia Limited and changed its name to Melbana Energy Limited in November 2016. Melbana Energy Limited was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyMelbana Energy Limited generates revenue primarily through its exploration and development activities in oil and gas sectors. The company's main revenue streams include potential sales of oil and gas extracted from successful exploration projects, as well as joint venture partnerships and farm-out agreements, which often involve selling or sharing a portion of its project interests with other companies in exchange for financial support or a share in future production. Additionally, strategic partnerships with other energy companies and stakeholders allow Melbana Energy to leverage technical expertise and financial resources, which can enhance project development and profitability.

Melbana Energy Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Overall financial quality is weak: revenue dropped to zero after FY2022, EBIT is negative in every year shown, and operating/free cash flow are consistently negative with large outflows in FY2024–FY2025. The main offset is a relatively strong balance sheet with minimal debt and sizeable equity, which reduces near-term solvency risk but does not resolve the underlying profitability and cash-burn issues.
Income Statement
24
Negative
Operating performance is weak and volatile. Revenue fell to zero in FY2023–FY2025 after FY2022, and the company has remained loss-making on an operating basis (negative EBIT in every year shown). Net income is inconsistent—profits in FY2022 and FY2024 were followed by a meaningful loss in FY2025—suggesting earnings are not yet supported by a durable core business.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The balance sheet is a relative strength. Debt is minimal to none across most periods (debt-to-equity near zero), reducing financial risk and providing flexibility. Equity is sizeable (around 56M in FY2024–FY2025), though returns to shareholders are inconsistent (return on equity positive in FY2022/FY2024 but negative in FY2025), reflecting profitability instability rather than leverage pressure.
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
Cash generation is a key concern. Operating cash flow is negative in every year provided, indicating the business is consuming cash in its operations. Free cash flow is deeply negative throughout, including very large outflows in FY2024–FY2025, consistent with heavy spending and/or investment without current operating inflows; this raises reliance on external funding over time despite the low debt load.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue0.000.000.000.0010.39M1.10M
Gross Profit-5.89K-5.89K-135.00K-126.00K-121.64K1.08M
EBITDA-1.81M-3.67M3.60M-563.00K6.51M-1.81M
Net Income-2.17M-4.15M3.26M-1.00M6.33M-1.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets80.17M80.17M96.35M58.21M50.25M15.60M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments5.12M5.12M12.32M34.98M35.57M10.68M
Total Debt0.000.000.00130.82K0.000.00
Total Liabilities24.24M24.24M40.42M5.21M13.08M8.51M
Stockholders Equity55.93M55.93M55.93M52.99M37.17M7.09M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-38.27K-38.27M-69.60M-48.50M-41.34M-9.55M
Operating Cash Flow-3.62K-3.62M-3.67M-2.62M-2.12M-2.00M
Investing Cash Flow-3.13M-3.80M-18.67M-13.87M3.26M11.60M
Financing Cash Flow0.000.000.0015.77M23.83M-126.00K

Melbana Energy Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.01
Price Trends
50DMA
0.01
Negative
100DMA
0.02
Negative
200DMA
0.02
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Negative
RSI
32.96
Neutral
STOCH
20.00
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:MAY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.01, below the 50-day MA of 0.01, and below the 200-day MA of 0.02, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 32.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.00 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:MAY.

Melbana Energy Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
AU$80.47M12.7810.27%13.04%10.44%-55.67%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
56
Neutral
AU$79.50M25.006.72%
49
Neutral
AU$34.04M-8.33-7.26%-220.00%
46
Neutral
AU$66.29M-50.00-18.71%33.33%
46
Neutral
AU$107.53M-17.95-7.73%17.02%
44
Neutral
AU$80.17M-16.13-3.58%22.50%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:MAY
Melbana Energy Limited
0.01
-0.02
-62.96%
AU:CUE
Cue Energy Resources Limited
0.12
0.03
27.78%
AU:ECH
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited
0.36
-0.02
-5.59%
AU:PCL
Pancontinental Energy NL
0.01
>-0.01
-47.37%
AU:IVZ
Invictus Energy Limited
0.05
-0.02
-28.57%
AU:KKO
Kinetiko Energy Ltd.
0.07
<0.01
11.11%

Melbana Energy Limited Corporate Events

Melbana Energy Lifts Australian Resources as Cuban Well Flows Water-Only
Jan 28, 2026

During the December 2025 quarter, Melbana Energy advanced its Cuban and Australian assets, producing 3,101 barrels of crude from the Alameda-2 well in Block 9 before shutting it in to facilitate the planned Amistad-11 twin, leaving closing inventories at about 36,700 barrels. In Cuba, the Amistad-2 appraisal well was drilled deeper than planned to 2,000 metres, encountered substantial net reservoir with good porosity and high permeability but flowed only water on test, indicating the reservoir there is not in communication with Alameda-2, while low-cost 2D seismic was also acquired. In Australia, Melbana materially upgraded the unrisked prospective resources in its 100%-owned AC/P70 permit, with gas estimates rising 3.7% to 2,857 Bcf and oil by 81% to 78 million barrels, and ended the quarter with $4.38 million in cash, underscoring both the technical challenges in Cuba and the growing exploration potential offshore Australia.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MAY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.01 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Melbana Energy Limited stock, see the AU:MAY Stock Forecast page.

Melbana Energy Advances Data Work at Cuba’s Block 9 as Amistad-11 Timing Awaits JV Funding
Jan 21, 2026

Melbana Energy has provided an operational update on Block 9 in Cuba, confirming that equipment and contractors remain ready to drill the Amistad-11 well, but noting that a rescheduled spud date depends on its joint venture partner funding its share of the program. Production from the existing Amistad-1 well was briefly restarted to relieve wellhead pressure and flowed unassisted to surface, indicating natural reservoir recharge, while new high‑resolution seismic and LIDAR data, along with planned 3D seismic acquisition in 2026, are expected to refine the subsurface model, optimise future well locations, and support ongoing analysis of why oil identified in Amistad-2 logs did not flow as anticipated.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MAY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.01 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Melbana Energy Limited stock, see the AU:MAY Stock Forecast page.

Melbana Energy Reveals Highly Concentrated Register of 2027 Listed Options
Jan 14, 2026

Melbana Energy Limited has provided an updated breakdown of its listed options on issue, specifically the $0.02 options expiring on 12 January 2027, indicating how these securities are distributed among its holders. The disclosure shows that all 436,764,704 listed options are concentrated among 79 holders, with no holdings in smaller retail ranges, highlighting a highly concentrated options register that may influence liquidity and trading dynamics for these securities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MAY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.01 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Melbana Energy Limited stock, see the AU:MAY Stock Forecast page.

Melbana Energy Reveals Concentrated Ownership in 2027 Listed Options
Jan 14, 2026

Melbana Energy Limited has released an updated register of its top 20 holders of listed options exercisable at $0.02 and expiring on 12 January 2027, showing that these investors collectively control approximately 79% of the 436.8 million options on issue. The largest positions are held through Morgan Stanley Australia Securities (Nominee) Pty Limited, Riddhi Group of Hotels Pty Ltd and several other nominee and private investment entities, indicating a relatively concentrated ownership structure in the company’s options that may influence future capital inflows and shareholder dynamics as these instruments approach maturity.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MAY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.01 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Melbana Energy Limited stock, see the AU:MAY Stock Forecast page.

Melbana Energy Seeks ASX Quotation for 436.8 Million New Options
Jan 12, 2026

Melbana Energy Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 436,764,704 options (MAYOA) expiring on 12 January 2027, with an issue date of 12 January 2026, following previously announced transactions. The large volume of new quoted options expands the company’s listed securities base, potentially enhancing liquidity and providing additional leverage for investors while signalling Melbana’s ongoing capital management and funding strategy for its energy projects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MAY) stock is a Hold with a A$0.01 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Melbana Energy Limited stock, see the AU:MAY Stock Forecast page.

Melbana Energy Announces Options Prospectus for Stakeholders
Dec 18, 2025

Melbana Energy Limited has announced an Options Prospectus detailing the issuance of placement options and bonus options to participants, directors, and lead managers involved in their recent placement activities. These offers, approved by shareholders, are not open to the public and aim to incentivize stakeholders and collaborators, potentially strengthening the company’s strategic initiatives and alignments.

Melbana Energy Limited Launches Objectives for Option Issuance
Dec 18, 2025

Melbana Energy Limited announced it has lodged a prospectus to facilitate the issuing of options connected to an earlier placement for eligible sophisticated and professional investors. These options include Attaching Options, Bonus Options, and Joint Lead Manager Options, and they aim to allow secondary trading of shares issued via their exercise. While no immediate funds are raised, the company may benefit financially when options are exercised. This development aligns with regulatory compliance and supports the company’s operational initiatives.

Melbana Energy Defers Amistad-11 Drilling Due to Partner’s Payment Default
Dec 5, 2025

Melbana Energy Limited has announced the deferral of drilling the Amistad-11 well in Block 9, onshore Cuba, due to non-payment of outstanding amounts by its partner, Sonangol. Sonangol has requested the deferral to align with its 2026 budget, leading Melbana to demobilize personnel and equipment. The company has issued a Notice of Default to Sonangol, which could result in Sonangol having to assign its interest in Block 9 to Melbana if the default is not resolved within sixty days.

Melbana Energy Clarifies Director’s Tenure and Role
Dec 3, 2025

Melbana Energy Limited has clarified the status of Andrew Purcell’s tenure as a director, in response to a request from the ASX. Mr. Purcell was last re-elected in 2018 and has since been appointed as Executive Chairman, a role equivalent to a managing director, which exempts him from re-election under ASX Listing Rule 14.4. This clarification confirms that Mr. Purcell holds the principal executive office, allowing him to exercise significant control and decision-making authority within the company.

Melbana Energy Initiates Trading Halt Ahead of Key Announcement
Dec 3, 2025

Melbana Energy Limited has requested a trading halt on its securities pending an announcement regarding the spud date of its Amistad-11 well in Block 9, onshore Cuba. This move is aimed at managing its continuous disclosure obligations, with the halt expected to last until the announcement is made or normal trading resumes on December 5, 2025.

Melbana Energy Announces Cessation of Performance Rights
Dec 1, 2025

Melbana Energy Limited announced the cessation of 22,594,581 performance rights due to the expiry of options or other convertible securities without exercise or conversion as of December 1, 2025. This cessation may impact the company’s capital structure and could influence investor perceptions and market positioning.

Melbana Energy AGM Results: Key Resolutions Passed
Nov 20, 2025

Melbana Energy Limited, an energy company listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, held its Annual General Meeting where all resolutions were decided by poll. The meeting resulted in the approval of several key resolutions, including the adoption of the remuneration report, re-election of a director, and approval of performance rights and options. However, the special resolutions for additional placement capacity and proportional takeover provisions were not carried. These outcomes may influence the company’s strategic decisions and stakeholder relations moving forward.

Melbana Energy Advances Exploration Efforts in Cuba and Australia
Nov 20, 2025

Melbana Energy Limited’s 2025 AGM highlighted its ongoing efforts in Cuba’s Block 9, where it commenced continuous production from Unit 1B in the Amistad formation. Despite challenges with the Amistad-2 well, the company plans to drill a new well, Amistad-11, to enhance production. In Australia, Melbana has strengthened its exploration portfolio with new resource estimates and secured a new exploration permit. The company’s technical insights and strategic moves aim to ramp up production and achieve regular exports, positioning it for success in FY2026.

Melbana Energy Initiates Drilling for Amistad-11 in Cuba
Nov 16, 2025

Melbana Energy Limited has commenced mobilization for the drilling of the Amistad-11 well in Block 9, Cuba, with drilling expected to start by the end of November 2025. The new well aims to twin the successful Alameda-2 well, leveraging advanced well design and formation management techniques to enhance production rates. This strategic move reflects Melbana’s proactive approach to optimizing its operations and underscores its commitment to improving oil recovery in the region, potentially impacting its market position and stakeholder interests positively.

Melbana Energy Corrects Voting Instructions for AGM
Nov 14, 2025

Melbana Energy Limited, listed on the Australian Securities Exchange under the ticker MAY, has issued a correction to its Notice of Annual General Meeting. The correction pertains to the Voting Exclusion Statement for Resolution 13, clarifying that if the Chair of the Meeting is appointed as a proxy for a person permitted to vote, the Chair will vote any proxies without specific instructions against Resolution 13, rather than in favor. Shareholders who have already submitted proxy forms can amend their votes by submitting a revised form by 10:30 am AEDT on 18 November 2025.

Melbana Energy Completes Amistad-2 Well with No Oil Recovery
Nov 5, 2025

Melbana Energy Limited announced the completion of the Amistad-2 well in Block 9 PSC, Cuba, where no oil was recovered despite indications of a highly permeable reservoir. The well was drilled deeper than initially planned, and the results have shifted focus to a low-cost 2D seismic survey to inform future drilling strategies. The company is considering replacing the planned Amistad-3 well with Amistad-11, a shallow production well, pending joint operation approval. This development highlights the challenges in early-stage oilfield appraisal and underscores the importance of seismic data in optimizing well placement.

Melbana Energy Requests Trading Halt Pending Key Announcement
Nov 3, 2025

Melbana Energy Limited has requested a trading halt on its securities pending the release of an announcement concerning the results of testing operations at its Amistad-2 well in Block 9, onshore Cuba. This move is aimed at managing the company’s continuous disclosure obligations as it prepares to make a material announcement that could impact its market position and stakeholder interests.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 30, 2025