Carnarvon Energy Limited (CVN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$175.33M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.60M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 49.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.68
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: AU
• Employees: 2
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): >-0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 1,789,086,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,203,237
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,600,846
• PEG Ratio: -0.09
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.71
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 61.02K
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$0.15
• Price Target Upside: 50.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.10 ▼(-5.00% Downside)

Overall score is held back primarily by weak operating fundamentals (no revenue and ongoing operating losses) and a high P/E valuation. These are partially offset by a very strong, low-debt balance sheet and moderately improving short-term technical positioning.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet strength

Extremely low leverage and a large equity base give Carnarvon significant financial flexibility to fund exploration or withstand setbacks without urgent refinancing. This durability supports multi‑period project timelines and reduces insolvency risk across commodity cycles.

JV / farm‑out business model

A structural reliance on farm‑outs and joint ventures lets Carnarvon progress prospects while sharing capital and operational risk with partners. This model preserves cash, limits dilution, and enables participation in larger programmes than the company could fund alone over the medium term.

Improved bottom‑line and operating cash flow

A move to a marginally positive operating cash flow and reported net profit in FY2025 indicates reduced burn and better cost control. If sustained, this improves the company's ability to self‑fund appraisal activity and reduces frequency of external capital raises.

Negative Factors

No producing revenue

Zero reported revenue and negative operating earnings mean the business lacks commercial production and depends on exploration outcomes or asset sales for value. This creates a binary, high‑risk profile where long‑term success hinges on future discovery and commercialization.

Volatile and negative historical cash flow

Large prior free‑cash‑flow deficits show the company has historically needed external funding or asset transactions to operate. Persistent volatility undermines planning for multi‑well programmes, raises refinancing risk, and can dilute shareholders if capital is repeatedly raised.

Earnings quality concerns

A FY2025 profit not supported by operating revenue implies gains may be non‑recurring (e.g., asset sales, revaluations). This reduces predictability of future earnings and weakens the case for using reported net income as a basis for funding development or forecasting sustainable cash generation.

Carnarvon Energy Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carnarvon Energy Limited explores for, develops, and produces oil and gas in Australia. The company owns interests in the Dorado project located in the Bedout Sub-basin permits of Western Australia; the Buffalo project situated in Bonaparte Basin; and the Labyrinth project located in the Roebuck Basin in the North West Shelf of Western Australia. It also holds interests in the Taurus project located in the North West Shelf; the Condor and Eagle projects located in the Vulcan Sub-Basin; the Outtrim project located in the Exmouth Sub-Basin; and the Pepper project that is situated in Barrow Sub-basin of the Northern Carnarvon Basin. The company was formerly known as Carnarvon Petroleum Limited and changed its name to Carnarvon Energy Limited in November 2021. Carnarvon Energy Limited was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in West Perth, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Carnarvon Energy Limited generates revenue primarily through the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas resources. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil and natural gas extracted from its operated and non-operated ventures. Carnarvon often partners with other energy companies to share the costs and risks associated with exploration and production activities. By participating in joint ventures and farm-out agreements, Carnarvon enhances its capacity to explore and develop its resource acreage. These partnerships also provide access to advanced technology and expertise, which contribute significantly to Carnarvon's ability to monetize its hydrocarbon discoveries.

Carnarvon Energy Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength (very low leverage and large equity base) supports resilience, but operating fundamentals are weak: revenue is $0 across periods provided and operating losses persist. FY2025 net profit is a positive development, yet it is not clearly supported by core operations, and cash flow has been volatile with prior meaningful free-cash-flow burn.

Income Statement

The income statement profile remains weak: reported revenue is $0 across all years provided, and operating losses persist (FY2025 EBIT of -$5.0M; FY2024 -$6.7M). Net income swung to a profit in FY2025 (+$3.6M) after losses in FY2024 (-$0.7M) and FY2023 (-$4.1M), but the lack of revenue and negative operating earnings suggest profitability is not yet supported by core operations and could be driven by non-operating items. Overall, earnings quality and consistency are the key concerns despite the recent bottom-line improvement.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a clear strength. Leverage is extremely low (FY2025 debt-to-equity ~0.0014; total debt ~$0.4M vs equity ~$271.5M), providing significant financial flexibility. Equity and total assets have been broadly stable to modestly higher over time, and FY2025 return on equity turned positive (~1.3%) after being negative in FY2022–FY2024. The main weakness is that strong capitalization has not yet translated into sustainable operating profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow is mixed and volatile. FY2025 generated slightly positive operating cash flow (~$0.0M) and free cash flow (~$0.0M), but this is a sharp step down versus FY2024 operating cash flow of ~$1.3M, and free cash flow growth in FY2025 was deeply negative (-99.7%) off the prior year base. Earlier periods show meaningful cash burn (e.g., FY2022 free cash flow of -$43.8M and FY2023 -$18.3M). While the company has demonstrated it can reduce cash outflows, consistency and scale of cash generation remain key risks.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-707.00	-707.00K	-231.00K	-256.00K	-269.00K	-256.00K
EBITDA	9.07M	-4.98M	-549.00K	-3.05M	-22.85M	17.47M
Net Income	6.89M	3.65M	-656.00K	-4.10M	-53.75M	17.14M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	276.32M	276.32M	267.59M	268.57M	273.65M	257.27M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	186.14M	186.14M	179.55M	95.52M	112.42M	98.44M
Total Debt	388.00K	388.00K	601.00K	220.00K	441.00K	644.00K
Total Liabilities	4.79M	4.79M	1.26M	2.22M	3.67M	2.76M
Stockholders Equity	271.53M	271.53M	266.33M	266.36M	269.98M	254.51M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.14K	3.14K	-1.95M	-18.28M	-43.76M	-14.39M
Operating Cash Flow	6.01K	6.01K	1.26M	-4.64M	-5.62M	-4.86M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.87K	-2.87K	83.77M	-13.79M	-52.56M	-9.47M
Financing Cash Flow	-202.00	-202.00	467.00K	-58.00K	68.36M	378.00K

Carnarvon Energy Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 0.10
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:CVN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.09, above the 50-day MA of 0.09, and below the 200-day MA of 0.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:CVN.

Carnarvon Energy Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
HZN	64 Neutral	AU$366.21M	18.97	16.49%	14.63%	-4.57%	-52.65%
COI	50 Neutral	AU$155.54M	-61.90	-4.74%	―	―	70.00%
CVN	49 Neutral	AU$175.33M	49.00	1.40%	―	―	―
BTL	49 Neutral	AU$329.68M	-12.99	-13.47%	―	―	―
MAY	49 Neutral	AU$34.04M	-8.33	-7.26%	―	―	-220.00%
KKO	46 Neutral	AU$101.39M	-16.92	-7.73%	―	―	17.02%

Carnarvon Energy Limited Corporate Events

Carnarvon Energy Advances Bedout Plans While Shoring Up Financial Strength and Diversified Energy Strategy

Carnarvon Energy has reported a solid financial position at 31 December 2025, with A$98 million in cash, no debt and a US$90 million development carry on the Dorado project, while maintaining a lean corporate structure that keeps overheads largely covered by interest income. Operationally, the company is advancing preparations for a major exploration drilling campaign in the Bedout Sub-basin scheduled for the first half of 2027, including procurement of long-lead items, environmental approvals and rig tenders, supported by a large seismic ‘mega merge’ that has improved subsurface imaging and unlocked new prospectivity across most of its permits. Development planning for the large Dorado oil and gas discovery remains in a staged configuration centred on an FPSO-driven liquids phase with potential future gas export, though progress has been deferred by the operator pending further appraisal of broader basin potential. At the same time, Carnarvon has reinforced its strategic repositioning as a diversified energy player through its 19.9% stake in Strike Energy, working with Strike to deliver key gas and power projects such as South Erregulla and West Erregulla, which could provide additional growth avenues while it matures its Bedout portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CVN) stock is a Hold with a A$0.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnarvon Energy Limited stock, see the AU:CVN Stock Forecast page.

Carnarvon Energy’s 2025 AGM Resolutions Successfully Passed

Carnarvon Energy Limited announced the results of its 2025 Annual General Meeting, where all proposed resolutions were passed. The re-election of Mr. Russell Delroy as a Director and the adoption of the remuneration report for the year ending June 30, 2025, were approved, indicating stable governance and shareholder support.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CVN) stock is a Buy with a A$0.14 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnarvon Energy Limited stock, see the AU:CVN Stock Forecast page.

Carnarvon Energy Strengthens Market Position with Strategic Investment in Strike Energy

Carnarvon Energy Limited has completed a strategic A$86 million investment in Strike Energy Limited, securing a 19.9% shareholding and becoming its largest investor. This move enhances Carnarvon’s exposure to Western Australia’s gas and electricity markets, complementing its core interests in the Bedout Basin. The company maintains a strong financial position with A$99 million in cash and no debt, allowing it to advance its exploration and production activities. Despite a delay in drilling due to rig availability, Carnarvon continues to progress its environmental approval plans and remains confident in its long-term development strategy. The investment in Strike Energy is seen as a timely response to an anticipated shortfall in Western Australia’s domestic gas supply, positioning Carnarvon to capitalize on rising regional gas prices.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CVN) stock is a Buy with a A$0.14 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnarvon Energy Limited stock, see the AU:CVN Stock Forecast page.