Horizon Oil Limited (HZN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$431.31M
• Dividend Yield: 14.63%
• Average Volume (3M): 794.89K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.27
• Revenue Growth: -4.57%
• EPS Growth: -52.65%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 10
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): <0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 1,627,588,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 682,665
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 794,892
• PEG Ratio: -0.87
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.86
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.05
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.20
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$0.30 ▲(49.00% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 03/10/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 03/10/26

The score is held back mainly by weaker recent financial performance (revenue and free-cash-flow decline), partially offset by constructive technical momentum and a positive earnings-call backdrop featuring strong volume/cash-flow momentum and identifiable production growth catalysts. Valuation is supported by a very high dividend yield, though the P/E is only moderate and sustainability depends on continued cash generation.

Positive Factors

Production growth & near-term uplift

Sustained volume growth (+26% half) and a committed Nam Phong Booster Compressor (FID; ≥40% uplift mid‑2026) represent durable supply-side leverage. Higher volumes materially boost operating cash flow and lower per‑unit fixed costs, supporting capex, dividends and debt reduction over the next 2–3 years.

Low-cost Thailand production & scale

Acquired Thailand assets immediately added low‑cost barrels (~US$7/boe) and ~28% of group volumes, improving margin resilience to price swings. Durable cost advantage increases free cash flow per boe and raises optionality for reinvestment or distributions, strengthening long‑term cash generation.

Conservative leverage & liquidity buffer

A moderate D/E (~0.39) combined with a material cash buffer (US$35.6m) and modest net debt provides financial flexibility to fund development, decommissioning and dividends. This balance sheet posture reduces refinancing risk and supports execution of multi‑year projects without immediate stress.

Negative Factors

Revenue & free cash flow decline

Steep year-on-year revenue drop and nearly 50% fall in free cash flow signal weakened ability to internally fund growth and distributions. Unless sustained production and cost gains offset this decline, the company faces persistent pressure on liquidity, investment capacity and dividend sustainability over the medium term.

Acquisition-funded leverage and JV loan exposure

Debt-funded M&A and a loan to a JV partner (higher‑cost funding) raise financing costs and counterparty exposure. Elevated near‑term amortization obligations reduce free cash flow available for discretionary investment, increasing financial rigidity until debt is repaid by end‑2027.

Project execution & timing risk

Several production and processing upgrades (Block 22/12, 12‑8 East, Mereenie Stairway) are not yet realized. Delays or underperformance would defer expected production and cashflow uplifts, prolonging reliance on existing assets and exposing the company to sustained price or operational downside.

Horizon Oil Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Horizon Oil Limited (HZN) is an oil and gas exploration and production company based in Australia, primarily focused on the development and production of oil and gas resources in New Zealand and Papua New Guinea. The company operates in the upstream sector of the energy industry, engaging in the acquisition, exploration, and production of hydrocarbon resources. Horizon Oil is dedicated to delivering sustainable and profitable growth through efficient operations and strategic partnerships, utilizing advanced technology to maximize resource recovery and minimize environmental impact.

How the Company Makes Money

Horizon Oil primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons from the upstream assets in which it holds working interests. Revenue is generated from its share of crude oil and/or natural gas sales (typically priced off relevant market benchmarks, net of quality/transport differentials), after which the company bears its proportionate share of operating costs, transportation/processing fees, and government royalties/taxes. Where its assets are operated by partners, Horizon earns revenue as a non-operator based on its participating interest while operational execution and day-to-day field management are conducted by the operator; Horizon’s earnings therefore depend on production volumes, realized commodity prices, operating/maintenance performance, and development activity (e.g., drilling and facility expansions) that can increase future production. Material drivers of cash flow typically include commodity price movements, production uptime, capital expenditure timing, and fiscal/contract terms (such as production sharing or royalty regimes) applicable to the jurisdictions where it operates.

Horizon Oil Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: income statement pressure from a sharp revenue decline (-36.89%) despite a still-reasonable EBIT margin (21.76%). Balance sheet is fairly stable with moderate leverage (debt-to-equity 0.39) and decent ROE (18.76%). Cash flow is a key concern given the steep drop in free cash flow growth (-49.50%), even though operating cash flow covers net income (OCF/NI 1.35).

Income Statement

Horizon Oil Limited has experienced a significant decline in revenue and profitability in the latest year, with a revenue growth rate of -36.89% and a net profit margin of 11.76%. Despite this, the company maintains a reasonable EBIT margin of 21.76%, indicating operational efficiency. However, the sharp decline in revenue and profit margins compared to previous years suggests potential challenges in market conditions or operational execution.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.39, indicating a conservative use of leverage. The return on equity is 18.76%, reflecting a decent return for shareholders. However, the equity ratio is not explicitly provided, which limits a comprehensive assessment of the company's financial stability. Overall, the balance sheet appears stable with manageable debt levels.

Cash Flow

Horizon Oil's cash flow statement reveals a significant decline in free cash flow growth of -49.50%, which could indicate cash management challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.35, suggesting that the company generates sufficient cash from operations relative to its net income. However, the declining free cash flow is a concern for future liquidity and investment capabilities.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	146.07M	104.13M	111.60M	148.65M	106.76M	70.58M
Gross Profit	29.05M	27.37M	55.19M	66.77M	50.73M	20.52M
EBITDA	79.96M	22.83M	42.30M	147.95M	99.56M	39.57M
Net Income	12.54M	12.25M	25.90M	43.85M	24.33M	4.51M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	281.46M	180.16M	205.28M	184.64M	183.50M	186.92M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	53.39M	39.78M	52.57M	43.49M	44.08M	44.44M
Total Debt	67.14M	25.66M	25.86M	8.21M	1.23M	12.42M
Total Liabilities	203.42M	114.86M	122.03M	89.08M	84.29M	76.64M
Stockholders Equity	78.04M	65.30M	83.24M	95.55M	99.21M	110.28M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	46.97M	20.86M	54.52M	40.50M	44.07M	16.15M
Operating Cash Flow	67.20M	35.89M	64.22M	71.05M	53.97M	23.31M
Investing Cash Flow	-63.88M	-16.52M	-36.01M	-31.88M	-9.90M	-3.38M
Financing Cash Flow	-21.81M	-32.06M	-19.22M	-39.81M	-44.40M	-1.30M

Horizon Oil Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 0.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:HZN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.25, below the 50-day MA of 0.23, and below the 200-day MA of 0.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:HZN.

Horizon Oil Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HZN	71 Outperform	AU$431.31M	23.18	16.49%	14.63%	-4.57%	-52.65%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
ECH	56 Neutral	AU$82.86M	―	2.32%	6.72%	―	―
TBN	52 Neutral	AU$929.30M	-30.28	-21.66%	―	―	―
COI	50 Neutral	AU$179.47M	-19.23	-4.74%	―	―	70.00%
CVN	49 Neutral	AU$175.33M	52.53	-0.67%	―	―	―
BTL	49 Neutral	AU$342.13M	-6.11	-14.19%	―	―	―

Horizon Oil Limited Corporate Events

Horizon Oil Wins Extension on Mereenie Gas Sales Agreement Deadline

Horizon Oil Limited and its Mereenie Joint Venture partners have secured an extension from the Northern Territory’s Power and Water Corporation to finalise a binding gas sales agreement. The deadline, originally set for 2 March 2026, has been pushed back to 24 March 2026, giving the parties additional time to convert their existing letter of intent into a definitive supply contract.

The extension underscores the strategic importance of the Mereenie gas supply for regional energy needs and Horizon’s role in the Northern Territory gas market. While the agreement is not yet binding, the revised timeline indicates ongoing negotiations that, if successfully concluded, could reinforce Horizon’s revenue base and its positioning as a key gas supplier to the territory’s utility sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HZN) stock is a Hold with a A$0.24 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Horizon Oil Limited stock, see the AU:HZN Stock Forecast page.

Central Petroleum Wins Extension to Finalise Northern Territory Gas Sales Deals

Central Petroleum has secured more time to finalise key gas sales contracts in the Northern Territory, extending the deadline to execute binding agreements with the territory’s Power and Water Corporation from 2 March to 24 March 2026. The extension, agreed with its Mereenie and Palm Valley joint venture partners, provides additional breathing room to lock in commercial terms that underpin ongoing supply from its onshore gas operations and may help stabilise regional energy supply arrangements.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HZN) stock is a Hold with a A$0.24 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Horizon Oil Limited stock, see the AU:HZN Stock Forecast page.

Echelon to Sell 19.99% Cue Stake and Back Horizon Oil Takeover Bid

Echelon Resources Limited has agreed to sell a 19.99% stake in Cue Energy Resources Limited to Horizon Oil Limited via an off-market transaction priced at A$0.115 per share, subject to Northern Territory approvals and customary conditions. The sale, together with Echelon’s stated intention to accept Horizon’s proposed takeover offer for its remaining Cue shares in the absence of a superior proposal, positions Horizon to consolidate control of Cue while potentially reshaping Echelon’s portfolio and capital allocation strategy, with completion expected shortly after the offer period if the bid becomes unconditional.

Echelon’s participation in Horizon’s bid underscores ongoing consolidation dynamics in the regional oil and gas sector, where mid-cap players are seeking scale and portfolio depth through strategic acquisitions. For Echelon, the transaction could unlock value from its long-held Cue interest and free up resources for new exploration and development opportunities across its Australasian and Indonesian assets, while regulators and minority Cue shareholders will be key stakeholders as approvals and offer conditions are addressed.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HZN) stock is a Hold with a A$0.24 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Horizon Oil Limited stock, see the AU:HZN Stock Forecast page.

Horizon Oil Plans Major Share Issue to Raise Fresh Capital

Horizon Oil Limited has lodged an Appendix 3B announcing a proposed placement or similar issue of up to 317,131,534 new fully paid ordinary shares. The issue is expected to occur on 8 May 2026, signalling a substantial equity raising that will expand the company’s share base and potentially provide additional capital for its operational or strategic objectives, with implications for existing shareholder dilution and market valuation.

The scale of the proposed issuance indicates Horizon Oil is preparing to materially strengthen its balance sheet or fund new activities, which could enhance its financial flexibility in a capital-intensive sector. Investors will be watching how the company deploys the proceeds from this large placement and how the expanded capital structure affects trading dynamics and Horizon’s positioning within the oil and gas industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HZN) stock is a Hold with a A$0.24 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Horizon Oil Limited stock, see the AU:HZN Stock Forecast page.

Spheria Asset Management Drops Below Substantial Holding in Horizon Oil

Spheria Asset Management has notified Horizon Oil Limited that it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 25 February 2026. The change reflects a reduction in Spheria’s voting power below the substantial holding threshold, indicating a shift in the institutional investor base but with no new associates disclosed in relation to Horizon’s securities.

The cessation of Spheria’s substantial holding may slightly alter Horizon Oil’s ownership profile and could signal portfolio rebalancing or a strategic shift by the fund manager. While no transactional details were specified in the notice, the move is relevant for shareholders monitoring changes in major institutional positions and potential implications for trading dynamics and governance influence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HZN) stock is a Hold with a A$0.24 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Horizon Oil Limited stock, see the AU:HZN Stock Forecast page.

Horizon Oil Declares Interim Dividend for Half-Year to December 2025

Horizon Oil Limited has declared a fully paid ordinary dividend of AUD 0.015 per share for the six-month period ended 31 December 2025, with an ex-dividend date of 9 April 2026 and a record date of 10 April 2026. The cash payment is scheduled for 17 April 2026, signalling ongoing capital returns to shareholders and underscoring the company’s capacity to distribute earnings from its oil operations.

The interim dividend decision may be interpreted by investors as a sign of confidence in Horizon Oil’s recent financial performance and cash generation over the reported half-year period. It also positions the company alongside other ASX-listed resource producers that continue to prioritise shareholder distributions despite a volatile commodities environment and shifting energy market dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HZN) stock is a Hold with a A$0.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Horizon Oil Limited stock, see the AU:HZN Stock Forecast page.

Horizon Oil lifts output and cash flow on Thailand deal despite weaker prices

Horizon Oil reported a solid half-year to 31 December 2025, with production and sales up about 26% and 25%, respectively, driven by a five‑month contribution from its newly acquired Thailand assets and strong performance from existing fields. Despite a 15% drop in realised oil prices, underlying revenue reached US$54.2 million, EBITDAX held at US$28.6 million and operating cash flow rose 37% to US$25.1 million, supporting a new interim dividend of AUD 1.5 cents per share and keeping net debt modest.

Thailand accounted for roughly 28% of group output in the period and, with a low operating cost base around US$20 per barrel of oil equivalent, materially boosted group cash flow and profitability. Operationally, Horizon advanced optimisation at Thailand’s Nam Phong field, secured a 10‑year permit extension and strong production performance at New Zealand’s Maari field, and signed a binding letter of intent to supply uncontracted Mereenie gas to the Northern Territory’s Power and Water Corporation through 2034, underpinning infill drilling and reinforcing its long-term energy role in the region.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HZN) stock is a Hold with a A$0.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Horizon Oil Limited stock, see the AU:HZN Stock Forecast page.

Horizon Oil Sets Webcast to Present FY26 Half-Year Results

Horizon Oil Limited will brief shareholders on its FY26 half-year financial results via a live audio webcast on 25 February 2026, led by chief executive Richard Beament and chief financial officer Kyle Keen. The session aims to walk investors through the company’s half-year performance and outlook as set out in its results presentation, reinforcing Horizon’s commitment to transparency and ongoing engagement with the market.

The webcast offers existing and prospective shareholders a structured forum to assess Horizon’s operational and financial trajectory at the mid-point of the financial year. By highlighting key metrics and management commentary in real time, the event may influence investor sentiment, inform valuation expectations and shape perceptions of the company’s strategic positioning in the energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HZN) stock is a Hold with a A$0.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Horizon Oil Limited stock, see the AU:HZN Stock Forecast page.

Horizon Oil Wins Extension to Finalise Mereenie Gas Sales Deal

Horizon Oil Limited and its Mereenie Joint Venture partners have secured a short extension from the Northern Territory’s Power and Water Corporation to finalise a binding gas sales agreement. The deadline to execute the agreement, originally set for 20 February 2026, has been pushed back to 2 March 2026, providing additional time to convert their existing letter of intent into a long-term contract.

The extension indicates continued progress in commercialising gas from the Mereenie field, which is supported by two new wells referenced in earlier disclosures. While modest in duration, the revised timeline underscores both parties’ ongoing commitment to concluding a long-term supply arrangement that could underpin future production plans and revenue visibility for Horizon and its partners.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HZN) stock is a Hold with a A$0.24 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Horizon Oil Limited stock, see the AU:HZN Stock Forecast page.

Central Petroleum Wins Brief Extension to Finalise NT Gas Sales Deals

Central Petroleum and its joint venture partners at the Mereenie and Palm Valley gas fields have secured an extension from Northern Territory’s Power and Water Corporation to finalise binding gas sales agreements. The deadline for executing these long-term supply contracts has been pushed from 20 February 2026 to 2 March 2026, giving the parties additional time to lock in terms for future gas deliveries.

The short extension suggests negotiations over the new gas supply arrangements are well advanced but not yet concluded. Completion of these contracts would underpin continued production from Central’s key Northern Territory assets and support regional energy security, with implications for revenue visibility and planning for both the company and its offtaker.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HZN) stock is a Hold with a A$0.24 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Horizon Oil Limited stock, see the AU:HZN Stock Forecast page.

Horizon Oil Sanctions Low-Cost Nam Phong Compressor to Lift Thai Gas Output

Horizon Oil Limited has approved the final investment decision for the Nam Phong Booster Compressor Project in onshore Thailand, a low-cost, strategic upgrade aimed at boosting gas recovery from the recently acquired Nam Phong field. The project involves installing a refurbished gas engine-driven compressor powered by treated field gas, with all key environmental and regulatory approvals already secured and Production Solutions appointed as the preferred vendor. Once operational in mid-2026, the compressor is expected to lift field output by at least 40%, delivering a material increase in gas production rates and volumes and generating strong returns with rapid payback, while Horizon’s share of development costs will be under US$1.5 million, funded from existing cash and field revenues. Management positions the move as a swift value-maximisation step that strengthens the company’s role in meeting Thailand’s energy needs and underscores the effectiveness of its partnership structure, with Matahio leading project execution and PTTEP as joint venture partner.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HZN) stock is a Hold with a A$0.21 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Horizon Oil Limited stock, see the AU:HZN Stock Forecast page.

Horizon Oil to Accelerate Drilling and Secure Long-term Gas Supply in Northern Territory

Horizon Oil Limited and its Mereenie Joint Venture partners have signed a Letter of Intent with the Northern Territory’s Power and Water Corporation to accelerate drilling of two new wells and establish long-term gas supply agreements. This initiative aims to enhance gas supply security in the region by targeting mid-2026 for drilling commencement and potentially supplying additional gas volumes to the market using existing field capacity. The agreements are expected to support the Northern Territory’s gas demand until 2034, with formal Gas Sale Agreements anticipated by February 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HZN) stock is a Hold with a A$0.22 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Horizon Oil Limited stock, see the AU:HZN Stock Forecast page.

Central Petroleum to Boost Gas Supply with New Drilling Program

Central Petroleum Limited and its joint venture partners have signed a binding Letter of Intent with the Northern Territory’s Power and Water Corporation to initiate an accelerated drilling program and secure long-term gas supply agreements. The program involves drilling four new wells at Mereenie and Palm Valley, with the aim to commence drilling by mid-2026 and supply up to 25.5 PJ of gas through the end of 2034. This initiative is expected to significantly enhance gas supply security in the Northern Territory and provide a reliable income stream for Central Petroleum, backed by government support.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HZN) stock is a Hold with a A$0.22 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Horizon Oil Limited stock, see the AU:HZN Stock Forecast page.