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New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (AU:ECH)
ASX:ECH

New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (ECH) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:ECH

New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited

(Sydney:ECH)

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Neutral 56 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 56 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 56 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 56 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.38
â–²(12.06% Upside)
Action:N/ADate:01/04/26
The score is driven mainly by improving financial performance (revenue rebound and stronger free cash flow) but tempered by thin net margins and uncertainty around operating cash flow quality. Technical signals are weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD), while valuation is mixed with a strong dividend yield offset by a relatively high P/E.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth Momentum
A ~34% revenue rebound in 2025 indicates improving underlying asset performance and demand for the company’s energy exposures. Durable topline recovery supports scale, enhances bargaining power for asset monetisations, and provides a foundation for sustained cash generation over the next 2–6 months.
Improving Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow growth of roughly 55% strengthens financial flexibility, enabling reinvestment, debt reduction, or distributions without immediate reliance on asset sales. Sustained FCF improvement is a durable indicator of operational cash conversion and funding capacity for strategic initiatives.
Moderate Leverage
Moderate leverage (debt ~0.36x equity) and a sizeable equity base provide resilience to commodity volatility and reduce refinancing risk. This capital structure supports measured growth or monetisation activity while preserving flexibility to withstand cyclical downturns in the oil & gas sector.
Negative Factors
Thin Net Margins
A narrow ~3% net margin reflects heavy below-operating-line costs or one-off items that significantly reduce retained earnings. Persistently thin bottom-line margins limit the firm’s ability to build reserves, fund growth internally, and weather commodity price declines, making results more volatile.
Low Return on Equity
ROE of roughly 2–3% signals weak earnings power relative to shareholder capital. Low returns constrain long-term value creation and reduce the company’s capacity to fund expansions or pay sustainable dividends without recurring asset sales or operational improvements.
Uncertain Cash Conversion Quality
Operating cash flow being reported as zero undermines confidence in the sustainability of reported free cash flow gains. This raises concern about cash conversion quality, potential timing/classification issues, and dependence on non-operational or one-off cash sources to support distributions or capex.

New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited (ECH) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEchelon Resources Limited engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas properties in New Zealand, Australia, and Indonesia. It also develops, produces, and sells natural gas, crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, and condensate. The company was formerly known as New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited and Echelon Resources Limited in July 2024. The company was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Wellington, New Zealand. Echelon Resources Limited operates as a subsidiary of O.G. Oil & Gas (Singapore) Pte Ltd.
How the Company Makes MoneyRevenue and earnings are generated primarily from (1) hydrocarbon-related income attributable to the company’s interests in oil and gas assets (where applicable), which can include its share of production and sales proceeds (or distributions from investee/operating entities) net of operating, development, and transport costs; and (2) investment returns from its portfolio, which may include realised gains/losses on the sale or restructuring of investments, dividends/distributions received from investee companies or ventures, and interest income on cash and financial assets. The company’s profitability is therefore influenced by commodity prices (oil and gas), production volumes from underlying assets, operating and capital expenditure requirements, and the timing and terms of any asset sales, farm-outs, or other monetisation events. Specific details of material partnerships, counterparties, or asset-by-asset revenue composition for ECH are null.

New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income statement strength is supported by a strong 2025 revenue rebound and solid operating profitability, but net margins are thin (~3%) versus much higher levels in 2022. Balance sheet leverage is moderate, yet ROE remains low (~2–3%), indicating limited earnings power. Cash flow shows improving free cash flow, but operating cash flow being reported as zero reduces confidence in cash conversion quality.
Income Statement
68
Positive
Revenue rebounded strongly in 2025 (annual: ~34% growth after a decline in 2024), and operating profitability looks solid with healthy EBIT/EBITDA margins. However, net profitability is thin in 2025 (~3% net margin) and well below 2022 levels (when net margin was ~20%), indicating heavier costs below the operating line and more volatile bottom-line performance.
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Leverage appears moderate with debt at ~0.36x equity in 2025 (similar to 2024), and equity remains sizable relative to total assets. The main weakness is muted shareholder returns: return on equity is low (~2–3%) in 2024–2025 versus much stronger profitability in 2022, suggesting the balance sheet is not currently generating high earnings power.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Free cash flow is a clear positive and improved meaningfully in 2025 (up ~55% year over year). The key concern is that operating cash flow is reported as zero across periods, which reduces confidence in cash conversion assessment and makes it hard to judge the sustainability/quality of cash generation despite strong free cash flow.
BreakdownJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue124.19M92.87M83.81M
Gross Profit122.89M94.14M84.15M
EBITDA53.56M31.91M36.58M
Net Income3.48M3.93M17.16M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets323.75M332.64M282.36M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments39.63M42.29M64.59M
Total Debt51.57M53.00M0.00
Total Liabilities155.24M157.76M119.95M
Stockholders Equity144.78M155.44M148.65M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow51.91M33.57M22.28M
Operating Cash Flow0.000.000.00
Investing Cash Flow-37.64M-67.35M-63.58M
Financing Cash Flow-22.92M36.82M24.75M

New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
AU$97.97M3.9412.05%13.04%10.44%-55.67%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
56
Neutral
AU$82.86M―2.32%6.72%――
44
Neutral
AU$78.57M-16.33-3.37%――22.50%
43
Neutral
AU$82.95M-9.56-2.37%――17.02%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:ECH
New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited
0.37
0.03
7.87%
AU:CUE
Cue Energy Resources Limited
0.14
0.04
42.86%
MEOAF
Melbana Energy Limited
0.02
-0.02
-47.83%
PCOGF
Pancontinental Energy NL
0.01
0.00
0.00%
AU:IVZ
Invictus Energy Limited
0.05
-0.01
-18.33%
AU:KKO
Kinetiko Energy Ltd.
0.05
-0.02
-22.86%

New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited Corporate Events

Echelon Resources Sets NZD Rate for Upcoming Dividend
Mar 16, 2026

Echelon Resources Limited has updated its previously announced dividend details for the six‑month period ended 31 December 2025, payable on its ordinary fully paid shares. The update clarifies the foreign exchange rate applied to New Zealand investors, confirming a rate of 1.2079 and setting the New Zealand dollar equivalent of the dividend at 0.0048316 dollars, or 0.48316 cents, per share.

The revised currency conversion provides greater transparency for New Zealand shareholders ahead of the 12 March 2026 record date and 11 March 2026 ex‑date. This move ensures investors can more accurately assess the cash value of their upcoming distribution in local currency, potentially aiding portfolio planning and reinforcing the company’s attention to cross‑border shareholder communication.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ECH) stock is a Hold with a A$0.38 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited stock, see the AU:ECH Stock Forecast page.

Horizon Oil Secures Extension for Mereenie Gas Sales Deadline
Mar 2, 2026

Horizon Oil and its Mereenie Joint Venture partners have reached an agreement with the Northern Territory’s Power and Water Corporation to extend the deadline for finalising a binding gas sales agreement. The execution date has been pushed from 2 March 2026 to 24 March 2026, giving the parties additional time to convert their existing letter of intent into a definitive supply contract, which is a key step for securing future gas sales volumes and revenue from the Mereenie project.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ECH) stock is a Hold with a A$0.38 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited stock, see the AU:ECH Stock Forecast page.

Central Petroleum Wins Extension to Finalise NT Gas Sales Deals
Mar 2, 2026

Central Petroleum and its Mereenie and Palm Valley joint venture partners have secured an extension from the Northern Territory’s Power and Water Corporation to finalise binding gas sales agreements, pushing the deadline from 2 March to 24 March 2026. The short extension suggests negotiations are at an advanced stage and underscores the importance of these contracts for ongoing gas supply in the region, with potential implications for Central’s revenue visibility and its role in the Northern Territory energy market.

By locking in long-term sales arrangements with a major utility buyer, Central Petroleum aims to reinforce its position as a key gas supplier in central and northern Australia and support future development across its production assets. The outcome of these talks will be closely watched by stakeholders, as the agreements are likely to influence investment decisions, joint venture planning and regional energy security in the near term.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ECH) stock is a Hold with a A$0.38 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited stock, see the AU:ECH Stock Forecast page.

Echelon Secures Further Extension on NT Gas Supply Deal Deadline
Mar 2, 2026

Echelon Resources has announced that the Mereenie and Palm Valley joint venture partners have agreed with the Northern Territory’s Power and Water Corporation to extend the deadline to execute binding gas supply agreements from 2 March 2026 to 24 March 2026. The extension gives the parties additional time to finalise long-term supply arrangements that are expected to be important for monetising Echelon’s core onshore Australian gas assets and could influence future development planning across the Mereenie and Palm Valley fields.

The Mereenie permits OL4/OL5 are operated by Central Petroleum with Echelon holding 42.5%, alongside Cue and Horizon Australia Energy, while the Palm Valley permit OL3 is also operated by Central Petroleum with Echelon holding 35% and Cue the remaining 15%. These stakes underpin Echelon’s regional gas growth ambitions and position the company as a key participant in supplying the Northern Territory market pending completion of the gas supply contracts.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ECH) stock is a Hold with a A$0.38 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited stock, see the AU:ECH Stock Forecast page.

Echelon to Sell 19.99% Cue Stake and Support Horizon Takeover Bid
Mar 1, 2026

Echelon Resources Limited has agreed to sell a 19.99% stake in Cue Energy Resources Limited to Horizon Oil Limited via an off-market transaction priced at A$0.115 per share, subject to regulatory approvals in the Northern Territory. The sale is scheduled to complete shortly after the end of Horizon’s proposed takeover offer period, provided the bid becomes unconditional.

In parallel, Echelon intends to accept Horizon’s off-market takeover offer for all remaining Cue shares it holds or controls 21 days after the offer opens, in the absence of a superior proposal and subject to ASX Listing Rule requirements. The move marks a potential reshaping of Echelon’s indirect holdings in Cue and could alter ownership dynamics across their shared oil and gas asset base, with further market updates promised as the transaction progresses.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ECH) stock is a Hold with a A$0.38 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited stock, see the AU:ECH Stock Forecast page.

Echelon Resources Declares Semi-Annual Dividend for December 2025 Period
Feb 25, 2026

Echelon Resources Limited has declared a semi-annual distribution of AUD 0.004 per ordinary fully paid share for the six-month period ended 31 December 2025, with an ex-date of 11 March 2026, record date of 12 March 2026 and payment scheduled for 31 March 2026. The cash return underlines the company’s intention to continue distributing capital to shareholders on a regular timetable, offering income-focused investors clarity on key dates for entitlement and payment of the latest dividend.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ECH) stock is a Hold with a A$0.38 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited stock, see the AU:ECH Stock Forecast page.

Echelon Resources lifts profit 61% on stronger gas prices, trims debt and boosts returns
Feb 25, 2026

Echelon Resources reported a strong first half to 31 December 2025, with shareholder net profit after tax rising 61 percent to A$6.0 million on the back of improved gas prices, steady production and reduced exploration activity. Revenue grew 7 percent to A$57.2 million, while net tangible assets per share increased and the company declared an interim dividend of AUD 0.40 cents per share, underscoring its emphasis on shareholder returns and balance sheet strength.

Gas sales from the Amadeus Basin, particularly the Mereenie field, underpinned performance, with Mereenie revenue up 33 percent and overall natural gas and LPG revenue climbing to A$38.1 million despite weaker oil prices and constraints. Although operating cash flow eased due to timing of Mahato field receipts, Echelon reduced debt by A$12 million and highlighted an imminent Northern Territory gas sales agreement that will support drilling four new wells from mid-2026, positioning the company for further production and revenue growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ECH) stock is a Hold with a A$0.38 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited stock, see the AU:ECH Stock Forecast page.

New Zealand Oil & Gas lifts half-year profit 61% on stronger gas prices
Feb 25, 2026

New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited reported group revenue of AUD 57.2 million for the half year to 31 December 2025, up 7% on the prior corresponding period, driven largely by stronger gas pricing under a new Northern Territory Gas Sales Agreement and a 33% revenue lift from the Mereenie field. Net profit after tax jumped 61% to AUD 6.0 million as improved pricing and operational performance offset prior-year exploration costs, while net assets rose to AUD 160.1 million, cash stood at AUD 32.9 million after repaying AUD 12 million of debt, and the board declared an interim dividend of 0.40 cents per share following prior dividend payments.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ECH) stock is a Hold with a A$0.38 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited stock, see the AU:ECH Stock Forecast page.

Echelon Wins Short Extension on NT Gas Sales Deadline
Feb 22, 2026

Echelon Resources Limited has secured an extension to the deadline for executing binding gas sales agreements with the Northern Territory’s Power and Water Corporation, moving the cut-off from 20 February to 2 March 2026. The agreements relate to production from the Mereenie and Palm Valley fields, where Echelon holds significant interests alongside Central Petroleum, Cue Energy and Horizon Australia Energy.

The short extension provides the joint venture parties with additional time to finalise commercial terms for future gas sales, which are linked to Echelon’s growth plans and the planned drilling of four new wells in the Northern Territory. Successful execution of these agreements would underpin monetisation of core assets and support Echelon’s broader strategy of expanding its Australasian gas portfolio in partnership with other regional operators.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ECH) stock is a Hold with a A$0.38 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited stock, see the AU:ECH Stock Forecast page.

Horizon Oil Extends Deadline for Mereenie Gas Sales Agreement
Feb 20, 2026

Horizon Oil and its Mereenie Joint Venture partners have agreed with the Northern Territory’s Power and Water Corporation to extend the deadline for executing a binding long-term gas sales agreement from 20 February 2026 to 2 March 2026. The short extension suggests negotiations on the Mereenie gas offtake are progressing but require additional time, with the eventual agreement expected to underpin future production from two new wells and provide greater supply certainty for the territory’s power utility and regional energy consumers.

The revised timetable slightly delays formalisation of an important revenue source for Horizon and its partners, but maintains commercial momentum around the Mereenie project and signals continued commitment from both the producers and the government-owned buyer. Stakeholders will be watching for the final terms of the gas sales agreement, which will shape cash flows for the joint venture and influence gas availability and pricing in the Northern Territory market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ECH) stock is a Hold with a A$0.38 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited stock, see the AU:ECH Stock Forecast page.

Central Petroleum wins short extension to finalise NT gas sale deals
Feb 20, 2026

Central Petroleum and its joint venture partners at the Mereenie and Palm Valley fields have secured an extension from the Northern Territory’s Power and Water Corporation to finalise binding gas sales agreements, pushing the deadline from 20 February 2026 to 2 March 2026. The short extension buys the parties additional time to lock in long-term gas supply contracts that are important for Central’s production planning and for regional energy customers relying on secure onshore gas from the Northern Territory.

While the announcement is procedurally focused on timing, it underscores the strategic significance of the Mereenie and Palm Valley assets within Central’s portfolio and for the NT gas market. Progress toward binding agreements is likely to influence the company’s medium-term sales volumes and revenue visibility, and holds implications for the stability of gas supply to central and northern Australian power and industrial users.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ECH) stock is a Hold with a A$0.38 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited stock, see the AU:ECH Stock Forecast page.

Echelon Resources Secures Long-Term Gas Sales and Plans New Amadeus Drilling as It Cuts Debt
Jan 30, 2026

Echelon Resources has entered 2026 with new gas sale contracts for its Mereenie and Palm Valley fields at higher realised prices and has reached a non-binding, conditional agreement with Power and Water Corporation for long-term gas sales out to 2034, covering up to 22.5 petajoules of firm volumes net to the group from existing production. To support these commitments, the company is advancing plans to drill four new wells in the Amadeus Basin from mid‑2026, targeting up to 13.3 petajoules of additional supply, while continuing development and optimisation at its Mahato project in Indonesia; despite a 1.8% quarter-on-quarter production decline to 407,252 boe, Echelon further deleveraged its balance sheet with a A$7 million loan repayment, retaining substantial undrawn debt capacity to fund approved development and growth opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ECH) stock is a Hold with a A$0.38 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited stock, see the AU:ECH Stock Forecast page.

Echelon Resources Grants Additional Share Options to Director Andrew Jefferies
Dec 22, 2025

New Zealand Oil & Gas Limited has disclosed a change in the interests of director Andrew Jefferies in Echelon Resources Limited, reflecting an adjustment to his equity-based remuneration. On 22 December 2025, Jefferies was granted 675,257 additional options to acquire ordinary shares in Echelon Resources at an exercise price of A$0.43 per option under the company’s Employee Options Plan, increasing his total unquoted options holding to 3,157,825 while his holding of 50,000 listed ordinary shares remains unchanged. The move underscores the company’s continued use of option-based incentives to align director and executive interests with long-term shareholder value, modestly increasing Jefferies’ potential future stake in the business.

Echelon Resources Issues 3.8 Million Unquoted Options Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Dec 22, 2025

Echelon Resources Limited has notified the market of the issue of 3,830,126 unquoted options to acquire ordinary shares, granted on 18 December 2025 under an employee incentive scheme. The move expands the company’s pool of unquoted equity linked to staff incentives, signalling an ongoing reliance on equity-based compensation that may modestly dilute existing shareholders over time while seeking to align employees’ interests with long-term company performance.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 04, 2026