MA Financial Group Limited (MAF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$1.68B
• Dividend Yield: 1.85%
• Average Volume (3M): 497.79K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 148.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.21
• Revenue Growth: 35.30%
• EPS Growth: 44.24%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 700
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 194,867,370
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 324,247
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 497,789
• PEG Ratio: -2.30
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.93
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.01
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.77
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$11.90
• Price Target Upside: 32.22% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.51
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$463.05M

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$9.00 ▲(0.00% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is primarily held back by financial risk from very high leverage and weakened bottom-line profitability, despite strong revenue growth and improved 2025 cash generation. Technical indicators also point to a weak trend (below key moving averages and negative MACD). Valuation is a further headwind due to an extremely high P/E, only partially balanced by a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Sustained, high single‑year revenue expansion increases the recurring fee base and potential incentive fees by growing FUM and transaction activity. Over 2–6 months this supports stronger fee receipts, better scale economics and a larger platform to monetise new mandates.

Improved Cash Generation

A clear shift to positive OCF and FCF provides durable operational liquidity after years of outflows. This enhances near‑term financial flexibility to fund operations, service obligations or support selected deleveraging and reinvestment without relying solely on capital markets.

Strong Operating Margins

High EBIT margins indicate durable operating leverage across asset management, credit and hospitality operations. Strong core profitability (pre non‑operating and financing items) supports resilience of the business model and capacity to absorb some cost shocks while maintaining service delivery.

Negative Factors

Very High Leverage

Rapidly rising leverage materially reduces balance‑sheet flexibility and increases refinancing and interest‑rate vulnerability. Over several months this elevates credit risk, constrains capital allocation choices and raises the chance management must divert cash to debt service rather than growth.

Weak Net Profitability

A collapse in net margins despite strong revenue and healthy EBIT implies heavy non‑operating or financing headwinds. This undermines earnings quality, limits retained earnings accumulation and weakens the firm’s ability to self‑fund growth or absorb future shocks over the medium term.

Cash‑flow Volatility and Thin Coverage

Although 2025 shows positive cash flow, low OCF/debt and prior volatile flows mean limited cushion against higher interest or principal requirements. Over 2–6 months this raises refinancing risk and may force asset sales, capital raises or curtailed investments if markets tighten.

MA Financial Group Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MA Financial Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial services. It operates through Asset Management, Lending, and Corporate Advisory and Equity segments. The Asset Management segment manages funds for institutional, high net worth and retail investors, real estate, hospitality, credit, listed equities, private equity, and venture capital. The Lending segment focuses on residential mortgage lending, specialty finance, and legal disbursement funding activities. The Corporate Advisory and Equities segment offers strategic and financial advisory services related to mergers and acquisitions; equity capital markets; debt capital markets; and restructuring and cash equity trading, as well as specializes in real estate, credit, technology and small to mid-cap industrial companies. It also provides securities research, sales, and trading execution services to institutional and high net worth clients.MA Financial Group Limited was founded in 2009 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

MA Financial Group generates revenue primarily through its various financial services, which include management fees from investment funds, performance fees based on the returns generated for clients, and transaction fees from corporate advisory services. The company's revenue model is diversified across its core segments, with significant contributions from private equity investments, real estate funds, and credit strategies. Key revenue streams include ongoing management fees for asset management services, success fees for advisory roles in mergers and acquisitions, and carried interest from investment performance. Additionally, strategic partnerships with institutional investors and financial institutions enhance MAF's ability to attract capital, thereby boosting its earnings potential.

MA Financial Group Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong 2025 revenue growth (+42.991%) and solid EBIT margins (~24.8%–27.4%) are outweighed by a sharp deterioration in net profitability (net margin ~0.6%) and a highly levered balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~19.2x). Cash flow rebounded in 2025 (FCF ~380.4M) but remains volatile and provides only modest coverage versus debt (OCF/debt ~0.18).

Income Statement

Revenue growth accelerated sharply in 2025 (annual report: +42.991%), building on steady growth in prior years. Operating profitability looks solid on the surface with healthy EBIT/EBITDA margins in 2024–2025 (EBIT margin ~24.8% to ~27.4%). However, bottom-line profitability weakened materially in 2025, with net income dropping to 10.4M and net margin compressing to ~0.6% (vs ~3.5% in 2024 and double-digit levels earlier), indicating heavier costs, non-operating impacts, or other drags that limit earnings quality despite strong revenue momentum.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has risen dramatically: total debt increased from ~1.0B (2022) to ~2.2B (2023), ~4.6B (2024), and ~8.9B (2025), while equity remained roughly flat (~463M in 2025). This pushed debt-to-equity to ~19.2x in 2025 (from ~10.9x in 2024 and ~2.45x in 2022), materially increasing financial risk and reducing balance-sheet flexibility. Returns on equity also deteriorated to ~2.2% in 2025, consistent with the sharp decline in net income.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved meaningfully in 2025 with operating cash flow of ~391.5M and free cash flow of ~380.4M after multiple years of negative operating cash flow (notably 2021–2024). That said, cash-flow volatility is a key concern, and free cash flow growth is sharply negative in 2025 (-119.331%), reflecting a swing versus the prior period’s depressed base. Additionally, operating cash flow relative to debt remains modest in 2025 (~0.18), which is a thin cushion given the elevated leverage.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.25B	1.79B	1.21B	875.04M	778.15M	241.98M
Gross Profit	916.37M	823.26M	316.08M	872.38M	317.40M	212.53M
EBITDA	407.94M	510.27M	318.06M	173.46M	118.72M	70.80M
Net Income	35.91M	10.39M	41.79M	28.52M	44.85M	32.04M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.47B	11.40B	6.02B	3.57B	2.25B	872.87M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	448.10M	473.14M	231.29M	341.55M	311.69M	250.20M
Total Debt	4.79B	8.89B	4.56B	2.23B	1.01B	416.61M
Total Liabilities	8.06B	10.91B	5.60B	3.11B	1.84B	502.84M
Stockholders Equity	407.56M	462.51M	417.53M	397.54M	409.59M	370.03M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.97B	380.38M	-9.33M	-1.13B	-296.66M	-44.75M
Operating Cash Flow	-1.96B	391.49M	-2.46M	-1.13B	-283.80M	-42.55M
Investing Cash Flow	-128.35M	-124.39M	4.41M	19.29M	-127.36M	-162.60M
Financing Cash Flow	2.31B	-23.68M	-6.32M	-3.93M	311.28M	201.87M

MA Financial Group Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 9.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:MAF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.90, below the 50-day MA of 10.34, and above the 200-day MA of 8.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.53 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:MAF.

MA Financial Group Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MFG	71 Outperform	€1.41B	10.48	16.50%	5.99%	-13.22%	-29.69%
EQT	69 Neutral	AU$582.72M	14.46	8.50%	4.63%	4.26%	79.41%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
CNI	56 Neutral	AU$1.61B	13.28	5.59%	6.26%	38.64%	-21.14%
PPT	50 Neutral	AU$2.11B	-124.17	-3.34%	6.01%	2.87%	87.93%
MAF	46 Neutral	AU$1.68B	148.08	8.97%	1.85%	35.30%	44.24%
AMP	44 Neutral	AU$3.23B	24.71	4.59%	1.65%	-14.92%	179.69%

MA Financial Group Limited Corporate Events

MA Financial Sets Date for FY25 Results and Investor Briefing

MA Financial Group Limited will release its financial results for the full year ended 31 December 2025 on 19 February 2026. The announcement signals an important reporting milestone for the ASX-listed financial services firm, giving investors and analysts fresh insight into its performance and outlook.

Management will host an investor and analyst briefing at 11:00 am AEST on the results day, supported by a pre-registered conference call and a public webcast. The planned briefing and webcast underscore the company’s efforts to maintain engagement and transparency with the market ahead of any strategic or operational commentary that may accompany the figures.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MAF) stock is a Hold with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MA Financial Group Limited stock, see the AU:MAF Stock Forecast page.

MA Financial Issues New Unquoted Equity Under Employee Incentive Scheme

MA Financial Group Limited has notified the market of the issue of unquoted equity securities under its employee incentive arrangements, comprising 143,136 options expiring at various dates and prices and 36,573 performance share rights, all to be issued on 30 November 2025. The move underscores the company’s continued use of equity-based remuneration to align employee interests with shareholders, potentially supporting talent retention and long-term performance without immediate dilution to quoted share capital, as these securities are subject to transfer restrictions and will not be quoted on the ASX until those restrictions lapse.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MAF) stock is a Buy with a A$10.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MA Financial Group Limited stock, see the AU:MAF Stock Forecast page.

MA Financial Issues 6,134 New Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Securities

MA Financial Group Limited has issued 6,134 new ordinary fully paid shares following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted options or other convertible securities, with an effective issue date of 22 December 2025. The modest increase in share capital reflects the ongoing utilisation of equity-based incentives or financing instruments, slightly diluting existing shareholders while signalling continued alignment of management or investors with the company’s long-term performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MAF) stock is a Buy with a A$10.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MA Financial Group Limited stock, see the AU:MAF Stock Forecast page.

MA Financial Group Cancels Equity Rights After Performance Conditions Not Met

MA Financial Group has notified the ASX of the cessation of a series of equity-based incentives, with a substantial number of share appreciation rights and performance share rights lapsing between July 2024 and November 2025. The rights have lapsed because the performance or vesting conditions attached to them were not met or became incapable of being satisfied, effectively cancelling these potential equity issuances; this reduces prospective share dilution for existing shareholders and signals that certain performance hurdles in the company’s incentive schemes were not achieved over the relevant periods.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MAF) stock is a Buy with a A$10.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MA Financial Group Limited stock, see the AU:MAF Stock Forecast page.