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AMP Limited (AU:AMP)
ASX:AMP

AMP (AMP) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:AMP

AMP

(Sydney:AMP)

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Neutral 44 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 44 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 44 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 44 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 44 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 44 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 44 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 44 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 44 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 44 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 44 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 44 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 44 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
AU$1.00
▼(-18.70% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial fundamentals—high leverage and volatile/negative cash flow—alongside bearish technicals with the stock trading below key moving averages. The earnings call provides partial offset due to improving underlying earnings, cash-flow momentum, and cost reductions, but valuation remains only modestly supportive given the higher P/E and moderate yield.
Positive Factors
Underlying earnings momentum
A sustained rise in underlying NPAT and EPS reflects improved core operating performance and cost discipline. Over 2–6 months this underpins stronger recurring profitability, increases internal capital generation and provides management flexibility to invest, de-risk legacy issues or support returns.
Platform cash flow and AUM scale
Material improvement in platform net cash flows and AUM growth supports more stable fee revenue and reduces sensitivity to market swings. Larger AUM and stronger client inflows enhance operating leverage, helping sustain margins and funding of digital/adviser investments over the medium term.
Product expansion and deposit traction
Successful product launches and early deposit traction diversify funding and revenue sources. AMP Bank GO's deposit inflows reduce reliance on wholesale funding and create a structural retail deposit base that can improve NIM stability and support longer-term banking growth.
Negative Factors
High leverage
Very high debt relative to equity materially limits financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity. In adverse market conditions this leverage can force asset sales, restrict capital returns, and limit the firm's ability to invest or absorb regulatory or litigation shocks.
Volatile cash generation
Large swings into negative operating and free cash flow indicate weak cash conversion and funding mismatch. Persistently volatile cash generation raises refinancing risk, reduces predictability of dividends/buybacks, and forces reliance on external funding or asset disposals to meet obligations.
Bank returns below cost of capital
A banking division earning below its cost of capital is structurally value destructive unless margins or scale improve. Persistent NIM pressure and low ROC require strategic remedy or capital support from the group, limiting capital allocation to higher-return opportunities.

AMP (AMP) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

AMP Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAMP Limited operates as a wealth management company in Australia and internationally. It operates through Australian wealth management (AWM), AMP Bank, AMP Capital, and New Zealand wealth management segments. The AWM segment provides advice, retirement income, and managed investments products, as well as offers superannuation, retirement, and investment solutions; wealth management solutions for retail and corporate; and financial advice and equity investments services. The AMP Bank segment provides residential mortgages, deposits, and transaction banking; and focuses on investing in technology. The AMP Capital segment offers real estate, equities, fixed interest, diversified, multi-manager, and multi-asset funds. The New Zealand wealth management segment provides wealth management solutions, such as KiwiSaver, corporate superannuation, retail investments, and operates wrap investment management platform. AMP Limited was founded in 1849 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyAMP makes money primarily by earning fees and margins from its wealth management and banking activities. In wealth management, revenue is generated through administration and management fees charged on funds and retirement products under administration, along with advice-related fees where applicable and other service fees connected to platform and product servicing. In banking, AMP earns net interest income—the spread between interest earned on loans and other interest-earning assets and interest paid on deposits and wholesale funding—plus fee income from certain banking products and transactions. The company’s earnings can also be influenced by market movements (which affect assets under management/administration and therefore fee revenue), customer inflows/outflows, funding costs, credit performance in the loan book, and the cost base required to service customers and meet regulatory obligations. Specific significant partnerships or counterparty arrangements are null.

AMP Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
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% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely constructive operating and financial update: strong underlying earnings growth, notable improvement in platform cash flows, meaningful cost reductions and improved capital position. Key positives include a 21% rise in underlying NPAT, 85% jump in platform net cash flows and improved partnership dividends. However, material challenges remain — bank return on capital is weak and below cost of capital, margins are under pressure from product mix shifts and managed portfolio growth, and there is residual legal/regulatory and partnership concentration risk. Management reiterated disciplined capital management, a conservative dividend approach (with buybacks as the preferred additional return mechanism) and guidance that balances growth ambitions with capital efficiency.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Underlying NPAT and EPS Growth
Underlying NPAT up ~21% to $285 million for FY'25; EPS increased >25%, demonstrating strong earnings growth on a comparable basis.
AUM and Platform Cash Flow Momentum
Total AUM up ~9% to $161.7 billion. Platform net cash flow improved ~85% year-on-year to $5.1 billion, reflecting materially stronger client inflows and adviser traction.
Revenue and EBIT Improvement
Group revenue increased ~2.8% and EBIT rose >21% year-on-year, indicating operating leverage as volumes and efficiencies scale.
Cost Reduction and Efficiency Gains
Controllable costs fell almost 7% in FY'25; group cost-to-income declined >6%; Platforms cost-to-income fell >3% and S&I cost-to-income down ~5% — business simplification program delivering savings.
Partnerships and China Exposure Driving Earnings
Partnership income up >53% to $72 million, largely driven by China partnerships (CLPC); CLPC manages ~AUD 440 billion and increased dividend payout ratio to 35%, supporting group profit and dividends.
Dividend Resumption and Capital Position
Final dividend of $0.02 per share (20% franked), bringing FY'25 dividends to $0.04. CET1 surplus improved to $287 million (pro forma surplus $236 million after dividend), and group retired credit facilities — balance sheet and capital base strengthened.
Product and Distribution Progress
Launched AMP Bank GO (Feb '25) with $310 million deposits and earlier-than-expected customer uptake. Lifetime solutions, Boost, Rewards and digital adviser tools (MyNorth, AI filenote) gaining traction; managed Lifetime AUM up to ~$764 million at year-end.
New Zealand and Partnership Diversification
New Zealand Wealth NPAT up >5% to $39 million with improved net cash flows despite NZD weakness; other partnerships (e.g., CLAAM) delivered first dividends — revenue diversification providing resilience.
Negative Updates
Platform and S&I Margin Compression
Platform margins contracted ~2 bps (net AUM) / ~3 bps (gross) driven by mix shift from managed funds to managed portfolios, tiered fee structures and fee caps. S&I gross margins down ~1 bp and admin margin compression noted.
Bank Return on Capital and NIM Pressure
Combined AMP Bank underlying NPAT $55 million; mortgage growth modest at 3.8% (below system). Combined bank return on capital fell ~40 bps; bank ROC remains well below cost of capital and AMP Bank GO launch and funding mix choices exerted downward pressure on NIM.
Statutory NPAT Impacted by Legacy and Simplification Costs
Litigation and remediation-related costs of $95 million and business simplification expenses $50 million (post-tax) reduced statutory NPAT to $133 million from the stronger underlying result.
Residual Legal/Regulatory Uncertainty
Four Royal Commission-related class actions settled in-principle but not fully finalized; one new class action filed in FY'25 with no near-term progress expected — ongoing legal tail risk remains.
Reliance on Partnership Income (Concentration Risk)
A large portion of the uplift in reported results came from China partnerships (CLPC/CLAAM). This introduces concentration and geopolitical/policy risk should partnership performance or payouts change.
Limited Franking Credits and Conservative Dividend Guidance
Management set dividend guidance at $0.02 per half ($0.04 FY'26/27 expectation) citing limited franking credits; further capital returns beyond that would likely be via on-market buyback only — constrains immediate franked dividend upside.
Platform Flow Guidance and Margin Visibility
Management declined to give explicit net flows guidance despite strong FY'25 cash flows; margin guidance for platforms and S&I is effectively flat (40–41 bps and 60–61 bps respectively), reflecting uncertainty over competitive pricing and mix impacts.
Company Guidance
Guidance for FY26 (subject to market conditions) included platform margins of 40–41 basis points and Superannuation & Investments margins of 60–61 basis points; AMP Bank GO is targeting $1.0 billion of deposits and AMP Bank NIM is guided to 125–130 basis points; partnerships are expected to deliver about 10% p.a. over the medium term; controllable costs are forecast at $630–640 million with the business simplification program on track to complete in FY26 (with a further $20 million of investment); management also signalled consistency in its dividend approach (FY25 dividends totaled $0.04 per share, including a $0.02 final) and indicated on‑market buybacks would be the preferred additional capital return given limited franking credits.

AMP Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Overall financial quality is weak due to very high leverage (debt-to-equity ~7x) and highly volatile cash generation, including negative operating and free cash flow in 2025. While net income is positive in recent years, revenue has contracted sharply and profitability has been inconsistent across the cycle, reducing confidence in earnings durability.
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Earnings are positive in most recent years (net income of $133M in 2025 vs. $150M in 2024), but the top line is volatile and recently weak, with revenue down sharply in 2025 (-38.21%) following declines in 2024. Profitability is also inconsistent across the cycle, including periods of negative operating profit (e.g., 2023 and 2021), which lowers confidence in the durability of earnings despite occasional strong years.
Balance Sheet
32
Negative
Leverage is the key constraint: total debt is very high relative to equity (debt-to-equity around ~7x in recent annual periods), which limits flexibility if operating conditions soften. Equity is positive and fairly stable (~$3.6B–$4.2B range), but the capital structure remains debt-heavy, and returns on equity have been modest and uneven (including a loss year), keeping balance-sheet quality below average.
Cash Flow
25
Negative
Cash generation is inconsistent, with negative operating and free cash flow in 2025 (operating cash flow -$1.38B; free cash flow -$1.45B) after a positive 2024. Prior years also show meaningful swings, including large negatives (e.g., 2020) and positives (e.g., 2021–2022), suggesting elevated volatility in cash conversion and funding needs.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.69B856.00M2.58B2.24B1.65B
Gross Profit232.00M856.00M2.73B864.00M2.25B
EBITDA1.75B1.92B1.19B625.00M285.00M
Net Income133.00M150.00M265.00M387.00M-252.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets34.21B33.16B33.88B34.95B32.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments7.36B7.18B1.44B1.82B2.92B
Total Debt29.64B28.71B28.92B29.53B26.25B
Total Liabilities30.47B29.51B30.00B30.77B28.22B
Stockholders Equity3.74B3.65B3.87B4.17B3.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-1.45B169.00M-137.00M933.00M1.63B
Operating Cash Flow-1.38B216.00M-105.00M963.00M1.68B
Investing Cash Flow-472.00M-478.00M1.25B-1.32B-565.00M
Financing Cash Flow1.82B201.00M-1.74B-511.00M-722.00M

AMP Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price1.23
Price Trends
50DMA
1.47
Negative
100DMA
1.60
Negative
200DMA
1.58
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.07
Negative
RSI
40.20
Neutral
STOCH
81.58
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AMP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.23 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.23, below the 50-day MA of 1.47, and below the 200-day MA of 1.58, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.58 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AMP.

AMP Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
AU$1.83B6.1916.50%5.99%-13.22%-29.69%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
61
Neutral
AU$2.77B14.1013.61%3.45%37.42%38.37%
56
Neutral
AU$1.33B8.417.96%6.26%38.64%-21.14%
53
Neutral
$3.14B9.670.72%-15.63%
50
Neutral
AU$1.85B9.75-1.00%6.01%2.87%87.93%
44
Neutral
AU$3.11B34.623.56%1.65%-14.92%179.69%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:AMP
AMP
1.23
>-0.01
-0.08%
AU:IFL
Insignia Financial Ltd
4.69
0.26
5.87%
AU:MFG
Magellan Financial Group Ltd
10.03
2.88
40.22%
AU:PPT
Perpetual Limited
16.12
-2.39
-12.91%
AU:PNI
Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited
12.76
-4.86
-27.58%
AU:CNI
Centuria Capital Group
1.57
0.03
2.29%

AMP Corporate Events

AMP Limited updates notice on interest in its own shares
Mar 12, 2026

AMP Limited, the Australian financial services group listed on the ASX, has disclosed an updated notice of its interest in its own ordinary shares under an exemption in subsection 259C(2) of the Corporations Act. The group, including its controlled entities, reports a small increase in its holding of AMP ordinary shares, with voting power rising from 0.79% to 0.80% of total issued capital.

The disclosure indicates that AMP and its controlled entities now control 20,319,751 AMP ordinary shares, up from 20,124,869 reported in the previous notice in December 2025. The company also confirmed that its net economic exposure to additional AMP shares, excluding these voting shares, remains at 0%, suggesting no additional derivative-based or other economic interests beyond the disclosed equity stake.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMP) stock is a Hold with a A$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AMP stock, see the AU:AMP Stock Forecast page.

AMP sets hybrid 2026 AGM with expanded shareholder access
Mar 4, 2026

AMP Limited has scheduled its 2026 Annual General Meeting for 10 April 2026 at the Wesley Conference Centre in Sydney, with a simultaneous online option, continuing its hybrid format to accommodate both in-person and virtual shareholder participation. The company has released key AGM materials, including the notice of meeting, proxy and question forms, and access details to its 2025 annual report and 2026 meeting documentation, underscoring its focus on shareholder engagement and transparent corporate governance.

The hybrid AGM structure enables broader access for domestic and overseas investors, reflecting evolving market expectations around flexibility and digital participation in corporate decision-making. By providing comprehensive documentation ahead of the meeting, AMP gives shareholders time to review performance, lodge proxies and submit questions, which may support more informed voting outcomes and reinforce confidence in the company’s oversight framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMP) stock is a Sell with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AMP stock, see the AU:AMP Stock Forecast page.

AMP CEO Alexis George’s Equity Holdings Updated After Incentive Vesting
Feb 27, 2026

AMP Limited has disclosed changes to the equity interests of its chief executive, Alexis Ann George, reflecting adjustments under the company’s long-term incentive arrangements. Following the scheduled vesting of equity awards on 24 February 2026, George received 3,097,661 ordinary shares upon the vesting of an equal number of rights, while 438,715 rights lapsed after performance conditions were not met.

As a result of these changes, George’s direct holding increased to 5,725,663 ordinary shares, with 3,363,759 rights remaining on issue, alongside an unchanged small indirect shareholding. The update underscores the performance-linked nature of AMP’s executive remuneration structure, highlighting both the scale of equity-based incentives and the impact of unmet performance hurdles on senior leadership’s total potential compensation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMP) stock is a Sell with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AMP stock, see the AU:AMP Stock Forecast page.

AMP Issues 6.9 Million New Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Equity
Feb 27, 2026

AMP Limited has notified the market of the issue of 6,927,959 new ordinary fully paid shares following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted equity securities. The additional stock, issued on 24 February 2026, marginally increases AMP’s share capital base and reflects the ongoing use of equity-based instruments within its capital management and employee or incentive structures.

While the size of this issuance is relatively modest compared with AMP’s overall register, it still constitutes incremental dilution for existing shareholders and signals continued reliance on unquoted options or convertible securities in its remuneration and financing mix. The move underscores standard capital markets practice for large financial institutions, with limited immediate operational impact but some implications for ownership dispersion and future earnings per share.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMP) stock is a Sell with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AMP stock, see the AU:AMP Stock Forecast page.

AMP updates Sydney share registry address for investor documentation
Feb 9, 2026

AMP has advised that its share registry provider, Computershare Investor Services, has changed the address of its Sydney office to Level 4, 44 Martin Place, Sydney NSW 2000. All future lodgment of documentation by member organisations, securityholders and other parties must now be directed to this updated registry address, with operational processes expected to transition accordingly.

The change in registry address is largely administrative but is important for ensuring accurate and timely handling of shareholder communications, transfers and other registry-related matters. Stakeholders who interact with AMP’s registry will need to update their records to reflect the new location to avoid disruption in service or delays in processing documentation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMP) stock is a Buy with a A$2.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AMP stock, see the AU:AMP Stock Forecast page.

AMP Resets Cost Allocation and Cost-to-Income Metrics Ahead of FY25 Results
Jan 28, 2026

AMP Limited has revised how it allocates technology and property-related costs across its business units and group centre to better align with its simplified operating structure, following an extensive transformation and cost-reduction program. The changes do not alter AMP’s total controllable cost base or overall NPAT, but they do lead to a restatement of underlying NPAT for individual business units in FY24 and 1H25 as more costs are reallocated from Group to the operating units. Looking ahead, AMP expects FY25 costs to remain within existing guidance, and forecasts FY26 controllable costs of A$630–640 million, reflecting 3–4% inflation and higher expenses from scaling its AMP Bank GO platform. The company is also revising its cost-to-income methodology to align with peers by excluding investment income, resulting in higher reported CTI ratios for prior periods, a move aimed at giving markets a more comparable and transparent view of the group’s efficiency and business unit performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMP) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AMP stock, see the AU:AMP Stock Forecast page.

AMP names CFO Blair Vernon as new CEO as Alexis George retires
Jan 19, 2026

AMP Limited has appointed current Chief Financial Officer Blair Vernon as its new Group Chief Executive Officer, effective following the retirement of incumbent CEO Alexis George on 30 March 2026, after a five-year tenure marked by significant transformation and growth. The board highlighted Vernon’s central role in tightening financial management, steering the capital return program and executing key divestments, including the separation of AMP Capital and the sale of the AMP Advice business, positioning him to ensure continuity of strategy and maintain the company’s positive operational momentum. The leadership transition underscores AMP’s intent to build on the simplified, customer-centric platform established under George’s tenure, with a focus on delivering stronger performance for customers, shareholders and other stakeholders, while the company commences a process to recruit a new Chief Financial Officer.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMP) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AMP stock, see the AU:AMP Stock Forecast page.

AMP Reports Lapse of 461,724 Conditional Rights
Jan 7, 2026

AMP Limited has notified the market that 461,724 AMPAB conditional rights have lapsed as of 31 December 2025 after the conditions attached to those rights were not, or could no longer be, satisfied. The cessation of these securities reduces the company’s pool of potential future equity issuance tied to those rights, marginally affecting its issued capital structure and reflecting the non-fulfilment of performance or service conditions linked to this tranche of rights.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMP) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AMP stock, see the AU:AMP Stock Forecast page.

AMP sets out key 2026 financial calendar dates
Jan 6, 2026

AMP Limited has released its key financial calendar dates for 2026, outlining the timetable for major corporate and reporting events in the year ahead. The schedule includes the deadline for director nominations on 4 February, the release of 2025 full-year financial results on 12 February, the annual general meeting on 10 April, and the 2026 half-year results on 6 August. The publication of these dates provides investors and other stakeholders with visibility over AMP’s upcoming governance and reporting milestones, although the company cautions that the timetable may be adjusted if circumstances require.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AMP) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AMP stock, see the AU:AMP Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 18, 2026