Centuria Capital Group (AU:CNI)
ASX:CNI
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Centuria Capital Group
(Sydney:CNI)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
AU$1.50
â–¼(-27.54% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
The score is held back mainly by weak reported financial statement trends (notably revenue decline and operating profitability) and bearish-to-neutral technicals. These are partly offset by a positive earnings call with upgraded FY'26 guidance and AUM growth, plus a supportive dividend yield despite a mid-range P/E.
Positive Factors
AUM scale and growth
Record AUM (+6% to $21.8bn) strengthens the recurring fee base and diversification across property and credit platforms. Larger scale sustains management fees, improves bargaining power with lenders, and supports cross-selling to a broader retail and institutional investor base over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Sharp revenue decline
An 80% revenue drop and negative EBIT indicate material operational volatility and structural pressure on core fee generation. Sustained revenue contraction undermines reinvestment capacity and margin leverage, forcing cost cuts or strategic shifts to restore recurring profitability over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
AUM scale and growth
Record AUM (+6% to $21.8bn) strengthens the recurring fee base and diversification across property and credit platforms. Larger scale sustains management fees, improves bargaining power with lenders, and supports cross-selling to a broader retail and institutional investor base over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Centuria Capital Group (CNI) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$1.30B
Dividend Yield6.26%
Average Volume (3M)1.36M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.4
Beta (1Y)0.93
Revenue Growth38.64%
EPS Growth-21.14%
CountryAU
Employees370
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.07
Shares Outstanding851,394,300
10 Day Avg. Volume1,132,770
30 Day Avg. Volume1,361,545
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.95
Price to Sales (P/S)18.05
P/FCF Ratio16.92
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$2.11Price Target Upside1.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$330.46M
Centuria Capital Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Centuria Capital Group, an investment manager, markets and manages investment products primarily in Australia. It operates through Property Funds Management, Co- Investments, Developments, Property and Development Finance, Investment Bonds Managem...
How the Company Makes Money
Centuria Capital Group primarily makes money by managing investment products and earning recurring fees linked to funds under management (FUM/AUM). Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Base/management fees charged to investors or the underly...
Centuria Capital Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a broadly positive operational and financial update: record AUM, upgraded FY'26 earnings guidance (11.5% uplift), recurring earnings growth (operating EPS +6.5%), strong execution across property and credit platforms, improved funding costs and a deep investor distribution network. The main negatives are a small but visible earnings drag from ResetData while it leases up and modest near-term volatility from performance fees, redemption requests in some open-ended funds and elevated look-through gearing metrics (largely mitigated by non-recourse structures). Overall, management portrays disciplined balance sheet management and measured capital deployment into strategic initiatives, with the positives materially outweighing the negatives.Positive Updates
Group AUM Growth to Record High
Group assets under management increased 6% to $21.8 billion, achieving a new record AUM for the half and reflecting strong contributions across property funds management and real estate finance.
Negative Updates
ResetData Drag on Earnings and Lease-up Uncertainty
ResetData (50% share) contributed a negative impact to earnings (Centuria's share reported as $2.8 million in the period) and is expected to remain a net negative contributor in FY'26 with management expecting a smaller loss in the second half; timing of customer signings and lease-up remains uncertain.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group AUM Growth to Record High
Group assets under management increased 6% to $21.8 billion, achieving a new record AUM for the half and reflecting strong contributions across property funds management and real estate finance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management upgraded FY‑26 operating earnings guidance to $0.136 per security (an 11.5% uplift on FY‑25), driven by improved forward earnings visibility rather than one‑off items; H1 operating EPS was $0.066 (up 6.5% vs prior half) with operating EBITDA of $89.3m and operating NPAT of $54.6m, and a distribution of $0.052 per security was declared. Key supporting metrics include group AUM +6% to $21.8bn (property funds management AUM +5% to $18.3bn; property & development finance AUM ~+9% to $2.5bn), ~ $500m of real estate acquisitions in the half (with management on track to exceed a $1bn FY target and noting ~$700m of acquisitions/divestments activity cited), Centuria Bass executing ~ $1.4bn of loan origination/restructuring/exit activity (and raising $200m of gross unlisted inflows), $133m cash realized from asset recycling, access to $8.3bn of lending facilities across 24 lenders, average lender margins improving to ~1.57%, and a reduction in all‑in funding margin from ~325bps to ~275bps; performance fees are expected to be ~ $20m for the year, while ResetData (50% share $2.8m in H1) is expected to remain a net negative for FY‑26 but with a smaller loss in H2.Centuria Capital Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 52.67M | 77.65M | 327.03M | 370.12M | 299.72M | 228.93M |
| Gross Profit | 7.68M | 27.56M | 195.28M | 260.88M | 263.95M | 137.67M |
| EBITDA | 254.89M | 248.61M | 176.56M | 166.59M | 178.34M | 185.51M |
| Net Income | 117.78M | 82.70M | 102.14M | 105.92M | -37.85M | 143.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.66B | 3.59B | 3.41B | 2.33B | 2.65B | 2.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 215.69M | 1.25B | 844.94M | 225.46M | 200.56M | 273.35M |
| Total Debt | 1.54B | 1.42B | 1.29B | 410.94M | 648.83M | 448.40M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.16B | 2.08B | 1.93B | 912.07M | 1.22B | 1.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.48B | 1.48B | 1.48B | 1.41B | 1.39B | 1.51B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 108.72M | 82.81M | 156.08M | 111.37M | 168.90M | 19.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 145.30M | 116.73M | 156.32M | 113.68M | 171.60M | 22.86M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 103.33M | -54.14M | -132.10M | 62.07M | -384.02M | -139.32M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -213.37M | -53.28M | -41.19M | -149.35M | 140.71M | 215.58M |
Centuria Capital Group Technical Analysis
Negative
2.07
Price Trends
1.82
Negative
1.97
Negative
2.01
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.08
Negative
30.55
Neutral
31.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:CNI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.62, above the 50-day MA of 1.82, and above the 200-day MA of 2.01, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 30.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:CNI.
Centuria Capital Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | AU$1.76B | 6.19 | 14.31% | 5.99% | -13.22% | -29.69% | |
69 Neutral | AU$536.10M | 7.80 | 9.94% | 4.63% | 4.26% | 79.41% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
56 Neutral | AU$1.30B | 8.41 | 7.96% | 6.26% | 38.64% | -21.14% | |
50 Neutral | AU$1.82B | 9.75 | -1.00% | 6.01% | 2.87% | 87.93% | |
46 Neutral | AU$1.31B | 173.62 | 2.39% | 1.85% | 35.30% | 44.24% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
AU:CNI
Centuria Capital Group
1.53
-0.02
-0.97%
AU:MFG
Magellan Financial Group Ltd
9.53
2.63
38.20%
AU:PPT
Perpetual Limited
15.80
-1.61
-9.24%
AU:MAF
MA Financial Group Limited
7.01
0.35
5.21%
AU:EQT
EQT Holdings Ltd.
20.01
-10.74
-34.92%
Centuria Capital Group Corporate Events
Centuria Flags Late Director Interest Notice After Probate Triggers Indirect Holding
Mar 18, 2026
Centuria Capital Group has disclosed a change in director John Richard Slater’s relevant interests in stapled securities following the grant of probate for the estate of the late Norma Emily Slater. The probate, granted on 23 September 2025,...
Centuria director Kristie Brown lifts indirect stake with on-market purchase
Mar 17, 2026
Centuria Capital Group has disclosed a change in director Kristie Brown’s indirect interest in the company’s fully paid ordinary stapled securities, reflecting an on-market purchase. Through Pacific Tristar Limited as trustee for The L...
Centuria Issues 21.3m Stapled Securities, Confirms Ongoing Compliance
Feb 25, 2026
Centuria Capital Group has issued 21,302,336 new stapled securities, each comprising an ordinary share in Centuria Capital Limited and a unit in Centuria Capital Fund, under existing disclosure provisions without preparing a prospectus or product ...
Centuria seeks ASX quotation for 21.3m new stapled securities
Feb 25, 2026
Centuria Capital Group has applied to the ASX for quotation of 21,302,336 fully paid stapled securities under code CNI, with an issue date of 25 February 2026. The new securities are being issued as part of a transaction executed immediately follo...
Centuria lifts guidance as record AUM and credit expansion underline growth push
Feb 25, 2026
Centuria Capital Group reported HY26 operating profit after tax of $54.6 million, with operating earnings per security up 6.5% and a new record $21.8 billion in assets under management driven by strong property funds management growth and real est...
Centuria Capital posts interim half-year financial report
Feb 25, 2026
Centuria Capital Group has released its interim financial report for the half year ended 31 December 2025, covering Centuria Capital Limited, Centuria Capital Fund and their subsidiaries. The report, authorised by the board on 25 February 2026, pr...
Centuria Sets Date and Webcast Details for HY26 Results Release
Jan 28, 2026
Centuria Capital Group has scheduled the release of its half-year 2026 financial results, covering the period to 31 December 2025, for 25 February 2026, underscoring the company’s regular disclosure and engagement with the market. Management...
Centuria Buys Chadstone Homeplus Centre for $86m Premium Price
Jan 27, 2026
Centuria Capital Group has agreed to acquire the Chadstone Homeplus Homemaker Centre in Victoria from BWP for $86.025 million under an unconditional contract of sale. The price, which represents a 1.1% premium to the asset’s recent fair valu...
State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Centuria Capital Group
Jan 12, 2026
State Street Corporation, through a suite of asset management and trust subsidiaries including State Street Global Advisors and State Street Bank and Trust Company, has lodged a notice that it has ceased to be a substantial holder in Centuria Capi...
MUFG Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Centuria Capital Group
Jan 7, 2026
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) has lodged a Form 605 notice indicating it has ceased to be a substantial holder in Centuria Capital Group, following a series of transactions in Centuria’s fully paid stapled securities carried out on 3...
Centuria Capital announces lapse of performance rights after unmet conditions
Jan 7, 2026
Centuria Capital Group has notified the market of the lapse of several tranches of performance rights, confirming that a total of 356,671 securities across three tranches (CNIAF Tranche 12, CNIAE Tranche 11 and CNIAP Tranche 13) ceased on 31 Decem...
First Sentier Group and MUFG Entities Exit Substantial Holding in Centuria Capital
Jan 6, 2026
Centuria Capital Group has disclosed that First Sentier Group Limited, together with a broad network of related entities ultimately linked to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, has ceased to be a substantial holder in the company as of 2 January 2026...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.