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Centuria Capital Group (AU:CNI)
ASX:CNI
Australian Market

Centuria Capital Group (CNI) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:CNI

Centuria Capital Group

(Sydney:CNI)

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Neutral 65 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
AU$2.00
â–¼(-1.48% Downside)
Centuria Capital Group's overall stock score is driven by strong technical indicators suggesting bullish momentum, despite mixed financial performance and a relatively high valuation. The attractive dividend yield provides some support to the stock's appeal.
Positive Factors
Recurring fee-based business model
Centuria's fee-driven model—management, acquisition, performance and property fees—creates recurring revenue tied to assets under management. That steady fee base and institutional partnerships support predictable cashflows and scalability across market cycles over months.
Diversified property sector exposure
Exposure to office, industrial and healthcare real estate reduces concentration risk and captures structural demand drivers (logistics, healthcare services). This sector mix supports more resilient leasing income and asset-management opportunities across business cycles.
Manageable leverage and capital structure
A moderate debt/equity profile and ~41% equity ratio indicate balanced capital structure, limiting refinancing strain and preserving financial flexibility. This allows the firm to support transaction activity and investor capital needs without acute solvency risk over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Sharp recent revenue decline
An ~81% revenue drop signals material disruption to core fee or transactional income, weakening the fee base that funds operations. Such a severe decline can depress recoverable earnings, reduce reinvestment capacity and complicate medium-term growth plans.
Operational profitability weakness
Negative EBIT margin implies core operations are loss-making before non-operating items. This structural operating weakness limits sustainable earnings generation, pressures margins, and raises questions on cost structure and profitability improvements over the coming quarters.
Weak cash flow conversion
Falling FCF and OCF covering less than net income indicate weaker cash conversion. This reduces internal funding for distributions, capex or acquisitions, increasing reliance on external capital and constraining strategic flexibility over the medium term.

Centuria Capital Group (CNI) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Centuria Capital Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCenturia Capital Group, an investment manager, markets and manages investment products primarily in Australia. It operates through Property Funds Management, Co- Investments, Developments, Property and Development Finance, Investment Bonds Management, and Corporate segments. The Property Funds Management segment manages listed and unlisted property funds. The Co-Investments segment holds interest in property funds, properties held for sale, and other liquid investments. The Developments segment engages in the management of development project and structured property developments for the commercial office, industrial, and health through residential mixed use. The Property and Development Finance segment provide real estate secured non-bank finance for land sub-division, bridging finance, development projects, and residual stock. The Investment Bonds Management segment manages benefit funds, which include a range of financial products, such as single and multi-premium investments. The Corporate segment manages reverse mortgage lending portfolio. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyCenturia Capital Group generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from management fees associated with its investment funds and property management services. The company charges fees to investors for managing their capital within its real estate investment trusts (REITs) and other investment vehicles. Additionally, Centuria earns income from acquisition fees, performance fees based on the success of the funds, and leasing commissions from properties under management. The company enhances its earnings through strategic partnerships with institutional investors, which provide access to larger capital pools and diversified investment opportunities, thereby driving growth and profitability.

Centuria Capital Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Centuria Capital Group's financial performance is mixed. The income statement shows significant revenue decline and operational challenges with negative EBIT margins. The balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage, but profitability metrics like ROE are low. Cash flow generation is under pressure with declining free cash flow growth.
Income Statement
Centuria Capital Group's income statement shows significant volatility. The company experienced a drastic revenue decline of 80.82% in the latest period, which is concerning. Despite a positive net profit margin of 106.50%, the EBIT margin is negative, indicating operational challenges. The EBITDA margin remains positive, suggesting some resilience in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.96, indicating manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is relatively low at 5.58%, suggesting limited profitability from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio stands at 41.34%, indicating a stable capital structure with a reasonable proportion of equity financing.
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth by 14.42%, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.78, indicating that operating cash flows are not fully covering net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.71, suggesting that free cash flow generation is relatively aligned with net income, but there is room for improvement.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue77.65M77.65M327.03M370.12M299.72M228.93M
Gross Profit27.56M27.56M195.28M260.88M263.95M137.67M
EBITDA258.50M248.61M176.56M166.59M178.34M185.51M
Net Income67.42M82.70M102.14M105.92M-37.85M143.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.59B3.59B3.41B2.33B2.65B2.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.25B1.25B844.94M225.46M200.56M273.35M
Total Debt1.42B1.42B1.29B410.94M648.83M448.40M
Total Liabilities2.08B2.08B1.93B912.07M1.22B1.00B
Stockholders Equity1.48B1.48B1.48B1.41B1.39B1.51B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow82.81M82.81M156.08M111.37M168.90M19.52M
Operating Cash Flow116.73M116.73M156.32M113.68M171.60M22.86M
Investing Cash Flow-59.74M-54.14M-132.10M62.07M-384.02M-139.32M
Financing Cash Flow-47.69M-53.28M-41.19M-149.35M140.71M215.58M

Centuria Capital Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2.03
Price Trends
50DMA
2.17
Negative
100DMA
2.20
Negative
200DMA
1.92
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.05
Positive
RSI
32.05
Neutral
STOCH
4.65
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:CNI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.03 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.05, below the 50-day MA of 2.17, and above the 200-day MA of 1.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.65 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:CNI.

Centuria Capital Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
AU$1.51B9.7516.50%5.99%-13.22%-29.69%
69
Neutral
AU$658.53M20.378.50%4.63%4.26%79.41%
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
65
Neutral
AU$1.64B19.815.59%6.26%38.64%-21.14%
50
Neutral
AU$2.19B-36.67-3.34%6.01%2.87%87.93%
45
Neutral
AU$2.02B48.818.97%1.85%35.30%44.24%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:CNI
Centuria Capital Group
1.98
0.31
18.26%
AU:MFG
Magellan Financial Group Ltd
9.04
-0.84
-8.53%
AU:PPT
Perpetual Limited
19.02
0.36
1.96%
AU:MAF
MA Financial Group Limited
10.87
5.23
92.73%
AU:EQT
EQT Holdings Ltd.
24.58
-6.25
-20.27%

Centuria Capital Group Corporate Events

MUFG Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Centuria Capital Group
Jan 7, 2026

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) has lodged a Form 605 notice indicating it has ceased to be a substantial holder in Centuria Capital Group, following a series of transactions in Centuria’s fully paid stapled securities carried out on 31 December 2025 by entities controlled by Morgan Stanley. The notice, dated 7 January 2026, details multiple purchases and sales of Centuria units that collectively reduced MUFG’s relevant interest below the substantial holding threshold, signalling a reshaping of Centuria’s institutional investor base and potentially altering the influence of MUFG-linked entities over the group’s securities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CNI) stock is a Buy with a A$2.51 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centuria Capital Group stock, see the AU:CNI Stock Forecast page.

Centuria Capital announces lapse of performance rights after unmet conditions
Jan 7, 2026

Centuria Capital Group has notified the market of the lapse of several tranches of performance rights, confirming that a total of 356,671 securities across three tranches (CNIAF Tranche 12, CNIAE Tranche 11 and CNIAP Tranche 13) ceased on 31 December 2025 because their performance or vesting conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The cessation of these performance rights reduces potential future equity dilution for existing securityholders and indicates that certain performance hurdles set under Centuria’s long-term incentive plans were not achieved, which may prompt closer investor scrutiny of the group’s recent operating performance and the calibration of its executive remuneration structures.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CNI) stock is a Buy with a A$2.51 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centuria Capital Group stock, see the AU:CNI Stock Forecast page.

First Sentier Group and MUFG Entities Exit Substantial Holding in Centuria Capital
Jan 6, 2026

Centuria Capital Group has disclosed that First Sentier Group Limited, together with a broad network of related entities ultimately linked to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, has ceased to be a substantial holder in the company as of 2 January 2026. The change, formalised through a statutory Form 605 notice, signals a complete reduction of this investor group’s substantial voting interest in Centuria, potentially altering the company’s institutional shareholder mix and reducing the influence of this previously significant global asset management and banking-affiliated investor on Centuria’s corporate governance and strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CNI) stock is a Buy with a A$2.51 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centuria Capital Group stock, see the AU:CNI Stock Forecast page.

Centuria Capital Declares 5.20 Cent Interim Distribution and Keeps DRP Suspended
Dec 22, 2025

Centuria Capital Group has declared an interim distribution of 5.20 cents per stapled security for the six-month period ending 31 December 2025, comprising a 0.70 cent fully franked dividend and a 4.50 cent trust distribution. The Distribution Reinvestment Plan will remain suspended for this interim payout, meaning investors will receive the distribution entirely in cash, with the ex-distribution date set for 30 December 2025, the record date for 31 December 2025, and an indicative payment date of 25 February 2026, underscoring the group’s continued capital returns to securityholders during the period.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CNI) stock is a Buy with a A$2.51 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centuria Capital Group stock, see the AU:CNI Stock Forecast page.

Centuria Capital Declares Six-Monthly Distribution of 5.2 Cents per Security
Dec 22, 2025

Centuria Capital Group has declared a six-monthly distribution of AUD 5.2 cents per stapled security for the period ending 31 December 2025, payable on 25 February 2026 to investors on the register as at 31 December 2025, with the securities trading ex-distribution from 30 December 2025. The announcement underscores the group’s continued focus on delivering regular income to its securityholders, reinforcing its positioning as a yield-oriented real asset manager and providing clarity around near-term cash returns for investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CNI) stock is a Buy with a A$2.51 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centuria Capital Group stock, see the AU:CNI Stock Forecast page.

Centuria Capital Group Announces Director’s Interest Change
Dec 15, 2025

Centuria Capital Group announced a change in the director’s interest, with Jason Huljich acquiring 1,416,481 Tranche 13 performance rights for the period 2025-2028 under the company’s Executive Incentive Plan. This move, approved by CNI securityholders, reflects the company’s commitment to aligning executive incentives with long-term performance goals, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CNI) stock is a Buy with a A$2.51 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centuria Capital Group stock, see the AU:CNI Stock Forecast page.

Centuria Capital Group Updates Director’s Securities Interests
Dec 15, 2025

Centuria Capital Group has announced a change in the director’s interest in securities, specifically concerning John McBain. The announcement details the acquisition of 1,416,481 Tranche 13 performance rights for the period 2025-2028, issued under the company’s Executive Incentive Plan. This change reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning executive incentives with shareholder interests, potentially impacting the company’s operational focus and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CNI) stock is a Buy with a A$2.51 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centuria Capital Group stock, see the AU:CNI Stock Forecast page.

Centuria Capital Issues New Performance Rights
Dec 11, 2025

Centuria Capital Group announced the issuance of 2,832,962 performance rights under an employee incentive scheme. These securities are unquoted and subject to transfer restrictions until the restriction period ends, reflecting the company’s commitment to aligning employee incentives with long-term performance goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CNI) stock is a Buy with a A$2.51 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centuria Capital Group stock, see the AU:CNI Stock Forecast page.

Centuria Capital Expands Agricultural Portfolio with Arrow Funds Acquisition
Dec 1, 2025

Centuria Capital Group has acquired Arrow Funds Management, significantly boosting its agricultural assets under management to $1.3 billion, an 85% increase since the start of FY26. This acquisition enhances Centuria’s position in the alternative agricultural real estate sector, adding scale and operational expertise to its agriculture division, and is expected to be accretive to future earnings.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CNI) stock is a Buy with a A$2.51 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centuria Capital Group stock, see the AU:CNI Stock Forecast page.

Centuria Capital Group Hosts 2025 AGM with Key Addresses
Nov 28, 2025

Centuria Capital Group held its Annual General Meeting for the financial year ended June 30, 2025, on November 28, 2025, where the Chairman and Joint CEOs addressed the stapled securityholders. The AGM, which took place at the Museum of Sydney, was also accessible via webcast, reflecting the company’s commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CNI) stock is a Buy with a A$2.51 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centuria Capital Group stock, see the AU:CNI Stock Forecast page.

Centuria Capital Expands Agriculture Portfolio with Major Acquisition
Nov 24, 2025

Centuria Capital Group has acquired Australia’s largest hydroponic glasshouse for $168 million, expanding its agriculture assets under management to $820 million. This acquisition, part of a strategic move to enhance its alternative real estate asset classes, is expected to strengthen Centuria’s market position in the agriculture sector and provide long-term growth opportunities for its investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CNI) stock is a Buy with a A$2.51 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centuria Capital Group stock, see the AU:CNI Stock Forecast page.

Centuria Capital Group Unveils 2025 Climate-related Disclosures
Oct 27, 2025

Centuria Capital Group has released its 2025 Climate-related Disclosures, highlighting the company’s commitment to transparency and sustainability in its operations. This announcement underscores Centuria’s proactive approach to addressing climate-related risks and opportunities, which may enhance its reputation and influence within the investment management industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CNI) stock is a Sell with a A$2.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centuria Capital Group stock, see the AU:CNI Stock Forecast page.

Centuria Capital Group Releases 2025 Sustainability Report
Oct 27, 2025

Centuria Capital Group has released its 2025 Sustainability Report, highlighting its commitment to sustainable practices and its impact on the investment management industry. This report underscores the company’s ongoing efforts to integrate sustainability into its operations, which may enhance its industry positioning and offer potential benefits to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CNI) stock is a Sell with a A$2.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centuria Capital Group stock, see the AU:CNI Stock Forecast page.

Centuria Capital Group Releases 2025 AGM Notice
Oct 27, 2025

Centuria Capital Group has announced the release of its 2025 Notice of Annual General Meeting, which is available on their website. This announcement is part of their ongoing commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement, reflecting their strategic focus on maintaining strong investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CNI) stock is a Sell with a A$2.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centuria Capital Group stock, see the AU:CNI Stock Forecast page.

Centuria Capital Group Unveils 2025 Annual Report
Oct 27, 2025

Centuria Capital Group has released its 2025 Annual Report, highlighting its position as a significant player in the investment management industry with substantial assets under management. The report underscores Centuria’s commitment to offering diverse investment opportunities and its strategic focus on real estate and investment bonds, which are expected to continue driving growth and value for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CNI) stock is a Sell with a A$2.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centuria Capital Group stock, see the AU:CNI Stock Forecast page.

Centuria Capital Group Releases 2025 Corporate Governance Statement
Oct 27, 2025

Centuria Capital Group has released its corporate governance statement for the financial year ending June 30, 2025, confirming compliance with the ASX Corporate Governance Council’s principles and recommendations. This disclosure, approved by the board, is available in their annual report and reflects the company’s commitment to transparency and adherence to governance standards, potentially strengthening stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CNI) stock is a Sell with a A$2.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Centuria Capital Group stock, see the AU:CNI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 03, 2025