Lovisa Holdings Ltd. (LOV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$2.25B
• Dividend Yield: 2.57%
• Average Volume (3M): 183.68K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.46
• Revenue Growth: 14.24%
• EPS Growth: 3.58%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 8,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Luxury Goods
• EPS (TTM): 0.63
• Shares Outstanding: 110,738,495
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 166,603
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 183,682
• PEG Ratio: 10.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 44.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.39
• P/FCF Ratio: 23.85
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$30.79
• Price Target Upside: 51.55% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.87
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$949.60M

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$23.00 ▲(13.19% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/13/26

The score is led by strong operating performance and cash generation, partially offset by elevated leverage risk. Technicals are the biggest drag given a clear downtrend and negative momentum, while valuation (reasonable P/E and solid dividend yield) provides some support.

Positive Factors

High gross and net margins

Sustained industry-leading gross margin (82%) and healthy net margin (10.8%) indicate durable unit economics in costume jewellery. High mark-ups and low COGS provide structural margin resilience versus peers, supporting profitability through product cycles and enabling investment in merchandising and retail execution.

Robust cash generation

Strong operating cash conversion (OCF/net income 2.41) and positive FCF growth show the business reliably converts earnings to cash. This underpins ongoing store investment, inventory funding, dividends or deleveraging and reduces reliance on external financing over the medium term.

Consistent revenue growth

Repeated revenue expansion reflects effective product drops, merchandising and international store expansion. A multi-channel model (stores + e-commerce) and repeat purchase dynamics support continued top-line growth potential over the next several quarters absent major macro shocks.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Very high debt-to-equity (6.36) materially raises refinancing and interest-rate exposure. Leverage reduces financial flexibility, amplifies downside if sales soften, and can constrain capital allocation choices like buybacks or faster store rollouts until leverage is meaningfully reduced.

Low equity ratio / debt reliance

A low equity base relative to debt implies returns (ROE) are boosted by leverage rather than purely operational strength. This structure increases vulnerability to margins or revenue shocks and may force defensive cash conservation or asset sales in adverse scenarios.

Store-focused retail exposure

Revenue dependence on physical stores and in-person merchandising exposes the company to structural retail shifts and foot-traffic variability. Maintaining repeat visitation requires constant product refresh and inventory agility; adverse changes in consumer behaviour raise operating leverage risk.

Lovisa Holdings Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lovisa Holdings Limited engages in the retail sale of fashion jewelry and accessories. It designs, develops, sources, and merchandises fashion jewelry and accessories under the Lovisa brand name. As of July 3, 2022, the company operated 629 retail stores, including 44 franchise stores. It operated owned stores in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, France, Luxembourg, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, the United States, Poland, Canada, Spain, and the Middle East. Lovisa Holdings Limited was founded in 2010 and is based in Hawthorn, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Lovisa primarily makes money by selling fashion jewelry and accessories directly to consumers (retail sales). Its key revenue stream is product sales through company-operated stores, where revenue is generated per transaction from individual items and multi-item purchases, supported by frequent new product drops aimed at driving repeat visits and impulse buying. A second revenue stream comes from e-commerce sales via its online store(s), where revenue is similarly generated from direct-to-consumer product purchases. The company’s earnings are driven by merchandising and retail execution: designing product ranges aligned to fast-moving fashion trends, sourcing/manufacturing those items at scale, and selling them at retail prices that exceed the cost of goods and store operating costs, with profitability influenced by factors such as store traffic, conversion, average transaction value, inventory management/markdowns, and operating leverage from expanding store networks. Specific material partnerships contributing to earnings are null.

Lovisa Holdings Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and growth profile (9.1% revenue growth, 82% gross margin, 10.8% net margin) supported by healthy cash generation (operating cash flow to net income of 2.41; free cash flow growth 3.2%). The main constraint is balance-sheet risk from high leverage (debt-to-equity 6.36), despite very strong ROE (109.9%).

Income Statement

Lovisa Holdings Ltd. has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 9.1% increase in the latest year, supported by a robust gross profit margin of 82%. The net profit margin is healthy at 10.8%, indicating efficient cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid, reflecting operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement shows a positive growth trajectory and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 6.36, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. However, the return on equity is impressive at 109.9%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting a reliance on debt financing. While profitability is strong, the high leverage warrants caution.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is strong, with a positive free cash flow growth rate of 3.2%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.41, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.70, reflecting efficient cash conversion. Overall, the cash flow statement indicates healthy cash management and growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	892.86M	798.13M	698.66M	596.46M	458.71M	288.03M
Gross Profit	523.36M	654.67M	565.79M	476.71M	361.83M	220.96M
EBITDA	236.68M	176.59M	221.55M	180.19M	142.73M	97.70M
Net Income	87.79M	86.33M	82.41M	68.16M	58.39M	24.83M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	737.93M	698.43M	532.80M	525.31M	373.52M	298.26M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	70.48M	49.11M	30.52M	31.65M	34.15M	35.55M
Total Debt	816.72M	499.64M	359.07M	372.59M	228.37M	200.69M
Total Liabilities	629.89M	619.88M	452.51M	445.32M	309.20M	252.55M
Stockholders Equity	108.04M	78.55M	80.29M	79.99M	64.32M	45.72M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	165.25M	146.88M	148.91M	64.30M	93.18M	69.96M
Operating Cash Flow	245.16M	207.91M	187.51M	141.16M	130.56M	85.30M
Investing Cash Flow	-69.74M	-55.17M	-23.27M	-60.72M	-34.60M	2.26M
Financing Cash Flow	-159.03M	-143.06M	-165.16M	-83.61M	-97.47M	-73.08M

Lovisa Holdings Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 20.32
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:LOV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 20.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.14, below the 50-day MA of 26.66, and below the 200-day MA of 31.90, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.86 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 28.17 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.29 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:LOV.

Lovisa Holdings Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LOV	69 Neutral	AU$2.25B	13.90	110.44%	2.57%	14.24%	3.58%
AX1	65 Neutral	AU$465.76M	5.06	7.94%	7.33%	1.58%	-4.71%
PMV	63 Neutral	AU$1.92B	5.26	37.89%	3.56%	-48.80%	-35.88%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
UNI	58 Neutral	AU$622.21M	5.43	22.34%	4.70%	15.51%	-32.98%
MHJ	54 Neutral	AU$165.48M	1.49	4.90%	―	-0.20%	―
MYR	42 Neutral	AU$492.41M	-0.75	-36.50%	6.38%	13.78%	-413.50%

Lovisa Holdings Ltd. Corporate Events

Pinnacle Exits Substantial Holder Position in Lovisa Holdings

Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited and its listed subsidiaries have notified Lovisa Holdings that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in the company as of 5 March 2026. The change, detailed in accompanying annexures, indicates Pinnacle’s voting power has fallen below the substantial holding threshold, potentially signaling a shift in Lovisa’s shareholder base and altering the influence of institutional investors on the retailer’s corporate governance.

No changes in association among Pinnacle’s related entities were reported in connection with this reduction, suggesting the move reflects an adjustment in shareholdings rather than a restructuring of relationships within the investment group. For Lovisa, the exit of a substantial institutional holder may affect market perceptions of its stock and could open room for new major investors to accumulate positions over time.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LOV) stock is a Hold with a A$22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lovisa Holdings Ltd. stock, see the AU:LOV Stock Forecast page.

Hyperion Exits Substantial Holder Position in Lovisa Holdings

Hyperion Asset Management Limited has lodged a notice stating it has ceased to be a substantial holder in Lovisa Holdings Ltd., effective 4 March 2026. The change indicates that Hyperion’s voting power in Lovisa has fallen below the substantial holding threshold, potentially altering the company’s shareholder mix and reducing the influence of this institutional investor on corporate decisions.

No new associates were disclosed in connection with this change, and the notice confirms that Hyperion’s relevant interest has been revised since its previous substantial holding notice. The adjustment in institutional ownership may be monitored by investors as an indicator of evolving sentiment toward Lovisa’s shares and could have implications for liquidity and future governance dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LOV) stock is a Hold with a A$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lovisa Holdings Ltd. stock, see the AU:LOV Stock Forecast page.

Lovisa Director Bruce Carter Increases Indirect Shareholding

Lovisa director Bruce Carter has increased his indirect beneficial stake in the company through his superannuation fund. Via Tarquay Pty Ltd as trustee for the Tarquay Superannuation Fund, Carter acquired 5,000 fully paid ordinary shares in an on‑market trade at $21.6381 per share, lifting his holding from 15,000 to 20,000 shares.

The transaction consolidates Carter’s financial alignment with Lovisa’s shareholders by expanding his exposure to the company’s equity. This change in director interest may be viewed by investors as a signal of confidence in Lovisa’s prospects, though it does not alter the company’s capital structure or introduce any new contractual arrangements.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LOV) stock is a Hold with a A$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lovisa Holdings Ltd. stock, see the AU:LOV Stock Forecast page.

Lovisa director John Charlton lifts indirect shareholding through on-market purchases

Lovisa Holdings director John Charlton has increased his indirect stake in the company through Herbert St Investments Pty Ltd, which is wholly owned by Murwill Pty Ltd as trustee for the John Charlton Family Trust. He acquired 6,000 fully paid ordinary shares in two on-market trades on 3 and 4 March 2026, at prices of $22.8549 and $21.5095 per share respectively, lifting his holding from 29,000 to 35,000 shares and signalling continued confidence in the company’s prospects.

The transactions, disclosed in an Appendix 3Y filing to the ASX, represent a modest but notable increase in Charlton’s exposure to Lovisa’s equity. While the acquisition does not alter the company’s capital structure, it may be viewed positively by investors as an indication of alignment between the director’s interests and those of shareholders, reinforcing governance transparency through timely reporting of insider dealings.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LOV) stock is a Hold with a A$30.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lovisa Holdings Ltd. stock, see the AU:LOV Stock Forecast page.

Lovisa Sets Date for FY26 Half-Year Results and Investor Webcast

Lovisa Holdings Limited has announced it will release its financial results for the half-year ended 28 December 2025 on 19 February 2026, with Global CEO John Cheston and Group CFO Chris Lauder to present the numbers via a webcast and Q&A session that morning. The scheduled results release and investor presentation underline the company’s ongoing engagement with the market and will provide shareholders and analysts with a key update on trading performance and strategic progress into the second half of FY26.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LOV) stock is a Hold with a A$33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lovisa Holdings Ltd. stock, see the AU:LOV Stock Forecast page.

Lovisa Issues New Unquoted Performance Rights Under Employee Incentive Plan

Lovisa Holdings Limited has notified the market of the issue of 38,601 unquoted performance rights expiring on 30 September 2028 under its employee incentive scheme. These new equity-based awards, which will not be quoted on the ASX, are part of the company’s ongoing use of long-term incentives to align staff and executive interests with shareholder value and support the retention and motivation of key personnel as Lovisa continues to execute its growth strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LOV) stock is a Buy with a A$38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lovisa Holdings Ltd. stock, see the AU:LOV Stock Forecast page.