Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. (AU:LDX)
ASX:LDX
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Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd.
(Sydney:LDX)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.21
â–Ľ(-35.63% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/03/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (losses, leverage, and cash flow strain) and bearish technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). The latest earnings call provides a meaningful positive offset via major commercial catalysts (PHASE deal, reimbursement, anticipated CLIA waiver) and improved operating metrics, while valuation is difficult to assess given negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Guaranteed US distribution revenue
An exclusive 6-year PHASE distribution agreement guaranteeing USD 317m provides a material, contracted revenue stream that de-risks U.S. commercialization. It secures market access, supports predictable production planning and demand visibility, and underpins scale economics if regulatory and reimbursement conditions are met.
Negative Factors
Weak financial performance and leverage
Declining revenue, persistent negative EBIT/net margins and a high debt-to-equity ratio (1.13) reflect structural financial weakness. This constrains strategic flexibility, raises refinancing risk and increases the likelihood that scaling or trials will require dilutive or costly financing absent sustained cash generation improvements.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Guaranteed US distribution revenue
An exclusive 6-year PHASE distribution agreement guaranteeing USD 317m provides a material, contracted revenue stream that de-risks U.S. commercialization. It secures market access, supports predictable production planning and demand visibility, and underpins scale economics if regulatory and reimbursement conditions are met.
Read all positive factors
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. (LDX) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$168.57M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.63M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.26
Revenue Growth12.96%
EPS Growth40.81%
CountryAU
EmployeesN/A
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)>-0.01
Shares Outstanding802,709,500
10 Day Avg. Volume3,659,446
30 Day Avg. Volume5,628,467
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)1.96
Price to Sales (P/S)0.97
P/FCF Ratio-1.29
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)>-0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$22.71M
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Limited, a contract research and development company, develops and commercializes rapid point-of-care (POC) diagnostic tests which are primarily focuses on the diagnosis and management of infectious diseases in the Unite...
How the Company Makes Money
Lumos makes money primarily through (1) sales of diagnostic products and related consumables where it manufactures and/or commercialises tests under its own portfolio, and (2) contract/service revenue from partnering with other organisations to de...
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive: management secured a material exclusive U.S. distribution agreement (USD 317M minimum), completed and submitted the CLIA waiver study while expressing near-term optimism about approval, achieved strong product revenue growth and high gross margins, and materially improved cash flow and adjusted EBITDA versus prior years. Key risks remain including an outstanding CLIA waiver approval (which drives the commercial ramp), continued adjusted EBITDA losses, declines in IP/services revenue timing, and the need for incremental manufacturing capacity and near-term financing actions. Overall, the highlights (large distribution deal, reimbursement, margin improvement, improved cash flow, nondilutive funding and product momentum) outweigh the lowlights tied mainly to timing, conditionality of the waiver, and continued operating losses.Positive Updates
Secured Major U.S. Distribution Agreement (PHASE)
Signed a 6-year exclusive U.S. distribution agreement for FebriDx with PHASE Scientific that guarantees a minimum of USD 317 million in sales to Lumos over the term; PHASE also paid a USD 1.0 million exclusivity fee recognized in H1 revenue.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Still Negative
Adjusted EBITDA loss of USD 1.4 million in H1, so the company remains unprofitable on an adjusted basis despite improvement versus FY24, with ongoing OpEx increases related to trials and U.S. commercial scaling.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Secured Major U.S. Distribution Agreement (PHASE)
Signed a 6-year exclusive U.S. distribution agreement for FebriDx with PHASE Scientific that guarantees a minimum of USD 317 million in sales to Lumos over the term; PHASE also paid a USD 1.0 million exclusivity fee recognized in H1 revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that CLIA‑waiver for FebriDx is expected imminently (targeted in March), which would activate the 6‑year U.S. exclusive PHASE distribution deal guaranteeing a minimum USD 317 million in sales to Lumos (PHASE paid a USD 1.0m exclusivity fee in H1 and is expected to prepay USD 5.0m on waiver), and highlighted that FebriDx has Medicare/MAC reimbursement of USD 41.38 per test (seven MACs agreed); BARDA‑funded pediatric work (~USD 6.2m) should add ~20% to the addressable market with the pediatric trial expected to finish by year‑end. Financial guidance reinforced H1 FY26 results: revenue USD 6.1m (products USD 1.7m vs USD 0.8m prior, services USD 4.4m vs USD 5.5m), IP revenue USD 1.0m (vs 2.6m), gross profit USD 4.2m and 68% gross margin, adjusted EBITDA loss USD 1.4m (improved from a USD 4.2m loss in H1 FY24), operating cash flow +USD 0.1m (vs -6.8m), BARDA receipts USD 2.8m, and liquidity support with USD 1.0m drawn on a finance facility (USD 4.0m remaining); management said current manufacturing capacity can meet expected PHASE demand for the first two years but will require investment to scale thereafter.Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
35
Negative
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
Cash Flow
30
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.33M | 12.50M | 11.13M | 10.54M | 11.63M | 18.85M |
| Gross Profit | 364.53K | 7.91M | 7.10M | 5.32M | 4.46M | 8.60M |
| EBITDA | -9.29M | -4.63M | -5.44M | -4.93M | -25.67M | -10.69M |
| Net Income | -9.35M | -7.18M | -8.59M | -8.97M | -45.72M | -15.03M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 21.12M | 20.81M | 26.84M | 25.42M | 36.94M | 97.99M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.00M | 1.96M | 6.48M | 3.02M | 7.98M | 44.89M |
| Total Debt | 11.85M | 6.99M | 8.06M | 9.79M | 7.19M | 7.96M |
| Total Liabilities | 15.88M | 14.65M | 19.73M | 15.92M | 19.05M | 39.71M |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.24M | 6.16M | 7.11M | 9.50M | 17.89M | 58.28M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.47M | -9.39M | 848.00K | -9.79M | -22.39M | -16.77M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -2.24M | -9.33M | 946.00K | -9.64M | -18.04M | -10.89M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -225.41K | -53.00K | -98.00K | 4.31M | -4.36M | -8.33M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -50.75K | 5.28M | 2.63M | 652.00K | -10.92M | 63.27M |
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
0.32
Price Trends
0.26
Negative
0.25
Negative
0.19
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.01
Positive
36.79
Neutral
12.34
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:LDX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.26, above the 50-day MA of 0.26, and above the 200-day MA of 0.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.34 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:LDX.
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | AU$62.14M | -4.75 | -476.27% | ― | ― | 56.42% | |
49 Neutral | AU$41.41M | -1.06 | -63.04% | ― | 29.60% | 33.00% | |
46 Neutral | AU$168.57M | -7.39 | -164.12% | ― | 12.96% | 40.81% | |
42 Neutral | AU$33.18M | -2.45 | -164.22% | ― | ― | 23.85% | |
41 Neutral | AU$18.17M | -2.23 | -23.93% | ― | 62.81% | 16.37% | |
38 Underperform | AU$48.57M | -3.02 | -37.14% | ― | 2.33% | 12.50% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Corporate Events
Lumos Issues 5 Million New Shares on Option Exercise, Confirms Regulatory Compliance
Apr 2, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has issued 5,000,000 fully paid ordinary shares following the exercise of an equivalent number of unquoted options held by Ryder Capital, expanding its issued capital base. The company confirmed the shares were issued without a p...
Lumos Diagnostics Seeks Quotation for 5 Million New ASX Shares
Apr 2, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd., the ASX-listed diagnostic solutions company, has moved to have an additional 5,000,000 ordinary fully paid shares quoted on the Australian Securities Exchange. The new securities, issued on 1 April 2026, reflect th...
Lumos Diagnostics to Brief Investors on FebriDx Clearance and Capital Raising
Mar 27, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has highlighted its recent progress, including the CLIA waiver clearance for its FebriDx point-of-care test and the completion of a capital placement, with a Share Purchase Plan to follow. The company will brief investors on thes...
Lumos Diagnostics Launches A$20 Million Capital Raising via Placement and SPP
Mar 26, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has released an investor presentation outlining plans for a non-underwritten institutional placement to raise approximately A$20 million through the issue of new fully paid ordinary shares. The company will also con...
Lumos Diagnostics Launches Securities Purchase Plan to Issue New Shares and Options
Mar 26, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd., an ASX-listed diagnostics company, has outlined plans to issue new ordinary fully paid shares and unlisted options as part of a securities purchase plan for eligible investors. The proposed capital raising, structu...
Lumos Diagnostics Plans Major Share and Options Issue on ASX
Mar 26, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has announced a proposed securities issue on the ASX, outlining plans to issue up to 88,888,889 new fully paid ordinary shares and 44,444,444 unlisted options. The proposed issue, structured as a placement or other ...
Lumos raises capital to accelerate U.S. rollout of FebriDx after CLIA waiver
Mar 26, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has completed an oversubscribed A$20 million institutional placement and plans an additional A$2 million share purchase plan for eligible retail investors, while existing shareholders Tenmile and Ryder Capital will exercise optio...
Lumos Wins FDA CLIA Waiver for FebriDx, Unlocking US$1 Billion Market
Mar 26, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has secured U.S. FDA 510(k) clearance with a CLIA waiver for its FebriDx point-of-care test, a move that lifts prior restrictions limiting use to moderate-complexity hospital and lab settings. The waiver expands FebriDx’s r...
Lumos Diagnostics Halts Trading Ahead of Key FDA FebriDx Update
Mar 24, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has requested a trading halt in its shares on the ASX pending a market update on the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s response to its CLIA waiver application for the FebriDx test. The halt is designed to help the company...
Lumos Diagnostics Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Shares
Mar 4, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has applied for quotation on the ASX of 4,495,817 new ordinary fully paid shares, dated 4 March 2026. The new securities arise from the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible securities, mod...
Lumos Diagnostics Releases 1H FY26 Results Presentation and Hosts Investor Webinar
Mar 2, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has released an investor presentation detailing its first-half FY26 financial results, which were announced on 27 February 2026, and made the materials available to the market. The company is also hosting a webinar for shareholde...
Lumos Hits Key U.S. Milestones as FebriDx Push Accelerates
Feb 27, 2026
Lumos reported strong momentum in the first half of FY26, underpinned by a six-year exclusive U.S. distribution agreement worth up to US$317 million for FebriDx with PHASE Scientific and the completion and submission of its CLIA waiver clinical st...
Lumos Diagnostics’ Half-Year Loss Widens as Going-Concern Risks Mount
Feb 27, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Limited reported a 2.9% decline in revenue from ordinary activities to US$6.12 million for the half-year ended 31 December 2025, while its net loss after tax widened 74% to US$4.88 million compared with the prior corresp...
Lumos Hits Paediatric Trial Milestone, Unlocks BARDA Funding for FebriDx Expansion
Feb 22, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has achieved a key enrollment milestone in its BARDA-funded paediatric clinical study evaluating the FebriDx rapid test in children aged 2 to 12 years. This milestone completion triggers a US$720,000 payment, bringing total miles...
Lumos Diagnostics Issues New Shares on Employee Option Exercises, Affirms Compliance Ahead of Half-Year Report
Feb 5, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has issued a total of 768,159 fully paid ordinary shares following the exercise and cashless exercise of unquoted employee options, increasing its share capital without a separate disclosure document under Australian Corporations...
Lumos Diagnostics Seeks Quotation of Additional 768,159 Shares on ASX
Feb 5, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd has applied for quotation on the ASX of 768,159 new ordinary fully paid shares, to be issued on 5 February 2026 under its code LDX. The additional securities, arising from the exercise or conversion of existing optio...
Lumos Diagnostics Issues Cautious Q2 FY26 Financial Presentation
Feb 2, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Limited has released its Q2 FY26 presentation, outlining financial information prepared primarily in US dollars and reiterating that the material is for informational purposes only and not an offer or recommendation to i...
Lumos Diagnostics Boosts FebriDx Sales as It Advances U.S. CLIA Waiver and Secures Full Medicare Reimbursement
Jan 29, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics reported unaudited revenue of US$2.7 million for the quarter to 31 December 2025, down 6.9% on the prior corresponding period, as growth in its flagship FebriDx® product and third‑party CorDx combo tests was unable to ...
Lumos Wins Follow-On Contract to Lead FDA-Bound Trial for Aptatek’s PKU Device
Jan 19, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has secured a follow-on contract with New Jersey-based Aptatek Biosciences to manage an Institutional Review Board-approved multi-centre clinical study aimed at obtaining US Food and Drug Administration clearance for PheCheck, an...
Lumos Diagnostics Issues New Shares on Option Exercises, Confirms Regulatory Compliance
Jan 9, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has issued a total of 5,228,863 new fully paid ordinary shares following the exercise of unquoted options by Lind Global Fund II and a company employee, with the shares issued without a prospectus under relevant Corporations Act ...
Lumos Diagnostics Seeks ASX Quotation for 5.2 Million New Shares
Jan 9, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has applied to the ASX for quotation of 5,228,863 new ordinary fully paid shares, to be traded under its existing ticker LDX. The issuance of these additional securities, arising from the exercise or conversion of e...
Lumos Diagnostics Showcases FebriDx in Investor Webinar on Reducing Diagnostic Uncertainty
Jan 7, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics is hosting an investor and shareholder webinar titled “Reducing Diagnostic Uncertainty” to showcase how its FebriDx rapid diagnostic test supports evidence-based antibiotic stewardship in outpatient and urgent care se...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.