Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. (AU:LDX)
ASX:LDX
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Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd.
(Sydney:LDX)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.12
â–Ľ(-63.13% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/19/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (losses, leverage, and cash-flow concerns) and bearish technicals (downtrend despite oversold readings). This is partially offset by a constructive earnings-call outlook driven by the large U.S. distribution agreement, reimbursement progress, and improving margins/cash flow, though execution remains dependent on the pending CLIA waiver.
Positive Factors
Exclusive U.S. distribution agreement
A guaranteed minimum USD 317M, six‑year U.S. distribution agreement provides durable multi-year revenue visibility and market access, materially de‑risking early commercial execution. This structural contract should support scaling, inventory planning and investor confidence across the PHASE term.
Negative Factors
Reliance on CLIA waiver approval
The commercial case and the PHASE guarantee activation depend on CLIA‑waiver approval. This regulatory contingency is a durable execution risk: without the waiver the company cannot fully access in‑office testing volumes, slowing revenue realization and capital payback over the contract life.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Exclusive U.S. distribution agreement
A guaranteed minimum USD 317M, six‑year U.S. distribution agreement provides durable multi-year revenue visibility and market access, materially de‑risking early commercial execution. This structural contract should support scaling, inventory planning and investor confidence across the PHASE term.
Read all positive factors
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. (LDX) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$116.15M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.63M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.02
Revenue Growth-14.85%
EPS Growth-41.04%
CountryAU
EmployeesN/A
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.02
Shares Outstanding929,211,100
10 Day Avg. Volume3,659,446
30 Day Avg. Volume5,628,467
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)1.96
Price to Sales (P/S)0.97
P/FCF Ratio-1.29
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)>-0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$21.39M
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Limited, a contract research and development company, develops and commercializes rapid point-of-care (POC) diagnostic tests which are primarily focuses on the diagnosis and management of infectious diseases in the Unite...
How the Company Makes Money
Lumos generates revenue primarily by selling point-of-care diagnostic products and related consumables. This typically includes (1) sales of test kits/assays (the recurring, consumable component used per test), and (2) sales or placements of any a...
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive: management secured a material exclusive U.S. distribution agreement (USD 317M minimum), completed and submitted the CLIA waiver study while expressing near-term optimism about approval, achieved strong product revenue growth and high gross margins, and materially improved cash flow and adjusted EBITDA versus prior years. Key risks remain including an outstanding CLIA waiver approval (which drives the commercial ramp), continued adjusted EBITDA losses, declines in IP/services revenue timing, and the need for incremental manufacturing capacity and near-term financing actions. Overall, the highlights (large distribution deal, reimbursement, margin improvement, improved cash flow, nondilutive funding and product momentum) outweigh the lowlights tied mainly to timing, conditionality of the waiver, and continued operating losses.Positive Updates
Secured Major U.S. Distribution Agreement (PHASE)
Signed a 6-year exclusive U.S. distribution agreement for FebriDx with PHASE Scientific that guarantees a minimum of USD 317 million in sales to Lumos over the term; PHASE also paid a USD 1.0 million exclusivity fee recognized in H1 revenue.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Still Negative
Adjusted EBITDA loss of USD 1.4 million in H1, so the company remains unprofitable on an adjusted basis despite improvement versus FY24, with ongoing OpEx increases related to trials and U.S. commercial scaling.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Secured Major U.S. Distribution Agreement (PHASE)
Signed a 6-year exclusive U.S. distribution agreement for FebriDx with PHASE Scientific that guarantees a minimum of USD 317 million in sales to Lumos over the term; PHASE also paid a USD 1.0 million exclusivity fee recognized in H1 revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that CLIA‑waiver for FebriDx is expected imminently (targeted in March), which would activate the 6‑year U.S. exclusive PHASE distribution deal guaranteeing a minimum USD 317 million in sales to Lumos (PHASE paid a USD 1.0m exclusivity fee in H1 and is expected to prepay USD 5.0m on waiver), and highlighted that FebriDx has Medicare/MAC reimbursement of USD 41.38 per test (seven MACs agreed); BARDA‑funded pediatric work (~USD 6.2m) should add ~20% to the addressable market with the pediatric trial expected to finish by year‑end. Financial guidance reinforced H1 FY26 results: revenue USD 6.1m (products USD 1.7m vs USD 0.8m prior, services USD 4.4m vs USD 5.5m), IP revenue USD 1.0m (vs 2.6m), gross profit USD 4.2m and 68% gross margin, adjusted EBITDA loss USD 1.4m (improved from a USD 4.2m loss in H1 FY24), operating cash flow +USD 0.1m (vs -6.8m), BARDA receipts USD 2.8m, and liquidity support with USD 1.0m drawn on a finance facility (USD 4.0m remaining); management said current manufacturing capacity can meet expected PHASE demand for the first two years but will require investment to scale thereafter.Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
35
Negative
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
Cash Flow
30
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.33M | 12.50M | 11.13M | 10.54M | 11.63M | 18.85M |
| Gross Profit | 364.53K | 7.91M | 7.10M | 5.32M | 4.46M | 8.60M |
| EBITDA | -9.29M | -4.63M | -5.44M | -4.93M | -25.67M | -10.69M |
| Net Income | -9.35M | -7.18M | -8.59M | -8.97M | -45.72M | -15.03M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 21.12M | 20.81M | 26.84M | 25.42M | 36.94M | 97.99M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.00M | 1.96M | 6.48M | 3.02M | 7.98M | 44.89M |
| Total Debt | 11.85M | 6.99M | 8.06M | 9.79M | 7.19M | 7.96M |
| Total Liabilities | 15.88M | 14.65M | 19.73M | 15.92M | 19.05M | 39.71M |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.24M | 6.16M | 7.11M | 9.50M | 17.89M | 58.28M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.47M | -9.39M | 848.00K | -9.79M | -22.39M | -16.77M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -2.24M | -9.33M | 946.00K | -9.64M | -18.04M | -10.89M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -225.41K | -53.00K | -98.00K | 4.31M | -4.36M | -8.33M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -50.75K | 5.28M | 2.63M | 652.00K | -10.92M | 63.27M |
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
0.32
Price Trends
0.19
Negative
0.23
Negative
0.21
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.02
Negative
29.31
Positive
9.01
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:LDX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.14, above the 50-day MA of 0.19, and above the 200-day MA of 0.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 29.31 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.01 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:LDX.
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | AU$42.63M | -1.06 | -63.04% | ― | -11.81% | -21.45% | |
46 Neutral | AU$116.15M | -7.39 | -164.12% | ― | -14.85% | -41.04% | |
41 Neutral | AU$43.69M | -4.75 | -476.27% | ― | ― | -142.39% | |
40 Underperform | AU$27.28M | -2.45 | -164.22% | ― | ― | 26.04% | |
39 Underperform | AU$16.81M | -2.23 | -23.93% | ― | 9.69% | 52.31% | |
38 Underperform | AU$45.75M | -3.02 | -37.14% | ― | 4.66% | 12.39% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Corporate Events
Lumos Secures BARDA Milestone as FebriDx CLIA Waiver Unlocks US$1bn Market
May 7, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has received a milestone payment of about US$0.5 million from the U.S. Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, bringing total funding tied to its FebriDx CLIA waiver study to nearly US$3 million and extending its ...
Lumos Director Catherine Robson Increases Indirect Shareholding via Purchases and Share Plan
May 1, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has disclosed a change in director Catherine Robson’s indirect interest in the company’s shares, reflecting increased alignment between board leadership and shareholders. Robson, whose holdings are held ...
Lumos Director Increases Stake via Share Purchase Plan
May 1, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics director Sam Lanyon has increased his equity stake in the company through participation in a recently announced Share Purchase Plan. Via his superannuation vehicle Sicksamba Pty Ltd, Lanyon acquired 133,333 fully paid ordinary sh...
Lumos Diagnostics Issues 44.4 Million Unlisted Options
May 1, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has notified the market of the issuance of 44,444,422 unlisted options as unquoted equity securities. The options, which will not be quoted on the ASX, were issued on May 1, 2026, reflecting a capital management mov...
Lumos Diagnostics Issues 455,544 New Unlisted Options
May 1, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has notified the market of the issue of 455,544 unquoted options as new unlisted securities, effective 1 May 2026. The move modestly expands the company’s equity-based instruments, which may form part of its c...
Lumos Diagnostics Seeks ASX Quotation for 1.18 Million New Shares
May 1, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd., an ASX-listed medical diagnostics company trading under ticker LDX, develops and supplies diagnostic solutions for the healthcare sector. The company has applied for quotation of 1,177,770 new ordinary fully paid s...
Lumos Diagnostics Raises Fresh Capital to Accelerate FebriDx Expansion
May 1, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has reported the results of its non-underwritten Share Purchase Plan, which closed on 24 April 2026 and followed a A$20 million institutional placement completed in March. The company raised A$265,000 from eligible shareholders u...
Lumos Director Increases Shareholding and Corrects Prior Holding Record
Apr 30, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd has reported a change in the interests of director Sam Lanyon, reflecting both direct and indirect holdings in the company’s fully paid ordinary shares and unquoted options. The notice also corrects a prior adm...
Lumos Diagnostics Launches A$20m Equity Raising via Placement and SPP
Apr 21, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has outlined plans to raise approximately A$20 million through a non-underwritten institutional placement of new fully paid ordinary shares. In parallel, the company will offer additional new shares to eligible exis...
Lumos Diagnostics Wins Key U.S. Clearance as FebriDx Drives Strong Quarterly Growth
Apr 20, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics reported strong third-quarter FY26 momentum as U.S. regulators granted a 510(k) clearance with a CLIA waiver for its FebriDx test, expanding its addressable U.S. market to about 80 million patients annually and opening access to ...
Lumos Diagnostics Announces Lapse of Performance Rights and Options
Apr 15, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has notified the market of the cessation of certain equity-linked securities, including 5,000 performance rights and 173,824 options, after the conditions attached to these instruments were not met or became incapable of being sa...
Lumos Diagnostics Sets Q3 FY26 Results Date and Reminds Investors of Share Purchase Plan
Apr 15, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has outlined key upcoming investor events and capital-raising opportunities as it prepares to report its third-quarter FY26 results. The company, a specialist in rapid point-of-care diagnostics, plans to release its Q3 FY26 numbe...
Lumos Diagnostics Widens FebriDx Rollout Across WellStreet Urgent Care Network
Apr 14, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has secured an expansion of its agreement with WellStreet Urgent Care to roll out its FebriDx rapid point-of-care test across 43 additional locations in Georgia and Michigan, following a successful pilot at a single Piedmont Heal...
Lumos Banks US$5 Million FebriDx Milestone as CLIA Waiver Unlocks U.S. Market
Apr 13, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has received a US$5.0 million milestone pre-payment from U.S. distribution partner Phase Scientific after the U.S. FDA granted 510(k) clearance with a CLIA waiver for its FebriDx test. The payment, which brings total pre-payments...
Lumos Explains Timing of Market Update on FebriDx FDA Clearance and CLIA Waiver
Apr 10, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has confirmed that its FebriDx test received U.S. FDA 510(k) clearance along with a CLIA waiver, a regulatory milestone that enables broader use of the test in decentralized clinical settings. The company regarded this informatio...
Lumos Diagnostics Launches A$2m Share Purchase Plan With Attaching Options
Apr 9, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd has released a prospectus for a Share Purchase Plan offering up to 8,888,889 new shares at A$0.225 each, with one free-attaching option for every two shares, to raise up to A$2 million before costs. The prospectus al...
Lumos Diagnostics launches A$2m share purchase plan for eligible investors
Apr 9, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Limited has launched a Share Purchase Plan offering eligible shareholders in Australia and New Zealand the opportunity to subscribe for up to A$30,000 of new shares at A$0.225 each, on the same terms as its recent placem...
Lumos Diagnostics Seeks ASX Quotation for 31 Million New Shares
Apr 9, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has applied to the ASX for quotation of 31,098,017 new ordinary fully paid shares, with an issue date of April 9, 2026. The application indicates an expansion of the company’s quoted securities on the market, ...
Lumos Diagnostics Issues 31 Million New Shares on Option Exercise
Apr 9, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd has issued 31,098,017 fully paid ordinary shares following the exercise of an equal number of unquoted options held by Tenmile Ventures Pty Ltd, expanding its share base. The company confirmed the shares were issued ...
Lumos Diagnostics Seeks ASX Quotation for 88.9 Million New Shares
Apr 9, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd., an ASX-listed diagnostics company trading under the ticker LDX, has moved to expand its capital base through the issuance of additional ordinary fully paid shares. The company operates in the healthcare diagnostics...
Lumos Diagnostics Issues 88.9 Million New Shares Under Cleansing Notice
Apr 9, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has issued 88,888,876 fully paid ordinary shares at an issue price of A$0.225 per share, expanding its capital base without a disclosure document under section 708A(5) of the Corporations Act 2001. The company confi...
Lumos Wins Three-Year Manufacturing Deal for Micro-Pak Mold Analyzer
Apr 8, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has signed a three-year contract manufacturing agreement with Micro-Pak Ltd. to produce the newly launched Micro-Pak Mold Analyzer system, a rapid on-site mold detection solution for both professional and consumer use. The deal, ...
Lumos Issues 5 Million New Shares on Option Exercise, Confirms Regulatory Compliance
Apr 2, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has issued 5,000,000 fully paid ordinary shares following the exercise of an equivalent number of unquoted options held by Ryder Capital, expanding its issued capital base. The company confirmed the shares were issued without a p...
Lumos Diagnostics Seeks Quotation for 5 Million New ASX Shares
Apr 2, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd., the ASX-listed diagnostic solutions company, has moved to have an additional 5,000,000 ordinary fully paid shares quoted on the Australian Securities Exchange. The new securities, issued on 1 April 2026, reflect th...
Lumos Diagnostics to Brief Investors on FebriDx Clearance and Capital Raising
Mar 27, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has highlighted its recent progress, including the CLIA waiver clearance for its FebriDx point-of-care test and the completion of a capital placement, with a Share Purchase Plan to follow. The company will brief investors on thes...
Lumos Diagnostics Launches A$20 Million Capital Raising via Placement and SPP
Mar 26, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has released an investor presentation outlining plans for a non-underwritten institutional placement to raise approximately A$20 million through the issue of new fully paid ordinary shares. The company will also con...
Lumos Diagnostics Launches Securities Purchase Plan to Issue New Shares and Options
Mar 26, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd., an ASX-listed diagnostics company, has outlined plans to issue new ordinary fully paid shares and unlisted options as part of a securities purchase plan for eligible investors. The proposed capital raising, structu...
Lumos Diagnostics Plans Major Share and Options Issue on ASX
Mar 26, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has announced a proposed securities issue on the ASX, outlining plans to issue up to 88,888,889 new fully paid ordinary shares and 44,444,444 unlisted options. The proposed issue, structured as a placement or other ...
Lumos raises capital to accelerate U.S. rollout of FebriDx after CLIA waiver
Mar 26, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has completed an oversubscribed A$20 million institutional placement and plans an additional A$2 million share purchase plan for eligible retail investors, while existing shareholders Tenmile and Ryder Capital will exercise optio...
Lumos Wins FDA CLIA Waiver for FebriDx, Unlocking US$1 Billion Market
Mar 26, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has secured U.S. FDA 510(k) clearance with a CLIA waiver for its FebriDx point-of-care test, a move that lifts prior restrictions limiting use to moderate-complexity hospital and lab settings. The waiver expands FebriDx’s r...
Lumos Diagnostics Halts Trading Ahead of Key FDA FebriDx Update
Mar 24, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has requested a trading halt in its shares on the ASX pending a market update on the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s response to its CLIA waiver application for the FebriDx test. The halt is designed to help the company...
Lumos Diagnostics Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Shares
Mar 4, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has applied for quotation on the ASX of 4,495,817 new ordinary fully paid shares, dated 4 March 2026. The new securities arise from the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible securities, mod...
Lumos Diagnostics Releases 1H FY26 Results Presentation and Hosts Investor Webinar
Mar 2, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has released an investor presentation detailing its first-half FY26 financial results, which were announced on 27 February 2026, and made the materials available to the market. The company is also hosting a webinar for shareholde...
Lumos Hits Key U.S. Milestones as FebriDx Push Accelerates
Feb 27, 2026
Lumos reported strong momentum in the first half of FY26, underpinned by a six-year exclusive U.S. distribution agreement worth up to US$317 million for FebriDx with PHASE Scientific and the completion and submission of its CLIA waiver clinical st...
Lumos Diagnostics’ Half-Year Loss Widens as Going-Concern Risks Mount
Feb 27, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Limited reported a 2.9% decline in revenue from ordinary activities to US$6.12 million for the half-year ended 31 December 2025, while its net loss after tax widened 74% to US$4.88 million compared with the prior corresp...
Lumos Hits Paediatric Trial Milestone, Unlocks BARDA Funding for FebriDx Expansion
Feb 22, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has achieved a key enrollment milestone in its BARDA-funded paediatric clinical study evaluating the FebriDx rapid test in children aged 2 to 12 years. This milestone completion triggers a US$720,000 payment, bringing total miles...
Glossary
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Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.