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Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. (AU:LDX)
ASX:LDX
Australian Market

Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. (LDX) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:LDX

Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd.

(Sydney:LDX)

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Neutral 46 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.28
▼(-12.81% Downside)
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (declining revenue, ongoing losses, high leverage, and negative operating/free cash flow). Technicals are comparatively supportive with a strong uptrend and positive MACD, but overbought momentum indicators add near-term risk. Valuation is not compelling on an earnings basis due to losses, while the earnings call provides only a moderate offset with improvement targets tempered by stated risks.
Positive Factors
Diversified revenue model
Multiple revenue streams—product sales plus contract/service and milestone fees—provide structural resilience. Over 2–6 months this diversification can smooth revenue volatility, support higher utilisation of manufacturing capacity, and create recurring partner-derived cash flow as commercial programs scale.
Healthy gross margin
A ~63% gross margin in diagnostics supports durable unit economics: it provides room to absorb R&D and scale-up costs and can translate into operating leverage as volumes grow. Sustained margins underpin long-term viability if revenue trends recover and fixed costs are spread.
Development & manufacturing capabilities
In-house assay development, regulatory and manufacturing scale-up expertise plus partner commercialization capability are long-term advantages. These capabilities shorten time-to-market for new tests, enable fee-for-service contracts, and create barriers for pure-play competitors lacking integrated scale.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue and losses
A sustained revenue decline with negative operating and net margins weakens competitive position and limits reinvestment. Over several months this compresses runway, risks partner confidence and supplier terms, and requires either rapid top-line recovery or external funding to avoid dilution.
High leverage
Significant leverage raises structural financial risk: interest obligations and covenant pressure can limit strategic flexibility, constrain capital expenditures for scale-up, and amplify earnings volatility. Negative ROE indicates the business currently fails to generate shareholder returns.
Negative cash generation
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow undermines self-funding of growth and increases dependency on external capital. Over months this elevates refinancing and dilution risk, complicates long-term supply and manufacturing commitments, and can hinder execution of scaling plans.

Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. (LDX) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLumos Diagnostics Holdings Limited, a contract research and development company, develops and commercializes rapid point-of-care (POC) diagnostic tests which are primarily focuses on the diagnosis and management of infectious diseases in the United States and Australia. The company products include FebriDx, a POC diagnostic test for detecting and differentiating viral and bacterial respiratory infections; ViraDx, a three-in-one POC test for influenza A, influenza B, and COVID-19.; and CoviDx, a rapid antigen test for COVID-19. It also offers desktop readers, disposable readers, and Lumos Leelu readers. Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Limited was founded in 2004 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyLumos Diagnostics generates revenue through the sale of its diagnostic test products and associated technologies. The company primarily makes money by selling its point-of-care diagnostic tests to healthcare providers, hospitals, and laboratories. Key revenue streams include direct sales of test kits, licensing agreements for its proprietary technology, and partnerships with other healthcare companies for co-development and distribution of diagnostic solutions. Additionally, the company may benefit from government contracts and grants aimed at improving public health and disease management.

Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 27, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with significant achievements in revenue growth and the Data Center segment, but these were tempered by notable challenges in the gaming sector and the China market.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Revenue and Growth
Summary of the revenue and growth metrics, including percentage changes and any notable achievements.
Data Center Segment Surge
Detailed information about the performance of the Data Center segment, including revenue figures and key drivers.
Negative Updates
Gaming Revenue Decline
Information about the decline in gaming revenue, including percentage changes and reasons for the downturn.
Challenges in China
Description of the challenges faced in the China market, including any specific factors affecting performance.
Company Guidance
The call provided guidance on several key financial metrics for Fiscal Year 2025, Fourth Quarter. The discussion focused on anticipated revenue growth, expected profit margins, and adjustments in operating expenses. The executives highlighted a projected revenue increase of 10% year-over-year, with an emphasis on expanding market share and optimizing cost structures to achieve an improved operating margin target of 15%. Additionally, the guidance suggested a strategic investment in capital expenditures to enhance production capabilities, which is expected to align with the overall growth trajectory and shareholder value enhancement. The team also addressed potential challenges and risk factors, such as supply chain disruptions and market volatility, while reaffirming their commitment to maintaining a robust financial performance and achieving the set targets.

Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. is facing significant financial challenges. The income statement shows declining revenues and persistent losses, with a negative growth rate and margins. The balance sheet reflects high leverage and negative returns, while the cash flow statement indicates ongoing cash outflows. Overall, the financial performance is weak and concerning.
Income Statement
35
Negative
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has faced significant challenges in its income statement. The company has experienced a decline in revenue growth, with a negative growth rate of -14.8% in the most recent year. Profitability metrics such as net profit margin and EBIT margin are negative, indicating ongoing losses. The gross profit margin remains relatively stable at around 63%, which is a positive aspect. However, the overall financial performance is weak due to persistent losses and declining revenues.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet of Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.13, indicating significant leverage. The return on equity is negative, reflecting the company's inability to generate profits from its equity base. The equity ratio stands at around 29.6%, suggesting a moderate level of equity financing. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial instability with high leverage and negative returns.
Cash Flow
30
Negative
The cash flow statement reveals substantial challenges for Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. The company has a negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, indicating cash outflows from operations. The free cash flow growth rate is significantly high at 1493.7%, but this is due to a low base effect rather than improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow issues. Overall, the cash flow situation is concerning with persistent cash outflows.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue12.40M12.50M11.13M10.54M11.63M18.85M
Gross Profit7.68M7.91M7.10M5.32M4.46M8.60M
EBITDA-6.08M-4.63M-5.44M-4.93M-25.67M-10.69M
Net Income-7.18M-7.18M-8.59M-8.97M-45.72M-15.03M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets20.81M20.81M26.84M25.42M36.94M97.99M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.96M1.96M6.48M3.02M7.98M44.89M
Total Debt6.99M6.99M8.06M9.79M7.19M7.96M
Total Liabilities14.65M14.65M19.73M15.92M19.05M39.71M
Stockholders Equity6.16M6.16M7.11M9.50M17.89M58.28M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-9.39M-9.39M848.00K-9.79M-22.39M-16.77M
Operating Cash Flow-9.33M-9.33M946.00K-9.64M-18.04M-10.89M
Investing Cash Flow-53.00K-53.00K-98.00K4.31M-4.36M-8.33M
Financing Cash Flow5.28M5.28M2.63M652.00K-10.92M63.27M

Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price0.32
Price Trends
50DMA
0.24
Positive
100DMA
0.21
Positive
200DMA
0.13
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
<0.01
Positive
RSI
46.25
Neutral
STOCH
14.79
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:LDX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.28, above the 50-day MA of 0.24, and above the 200-day MA of 0.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.79 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:LDX.

Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
49
Neutral
AU$54.81M-2.94-40.54%29.60%33.00%
46
Neutral
AU$225.85M-16.15-111.23%12.96%40.81%
45
Neutral
AU$47.85M-6.31-97.79%23.85%
44
Neutral
AU$53.96M-11.63-501.54%56.42%
41
Neutral
AU$52.24M-2.43-36.16%62.81%16.37%
38
Underperform
AU$54.90M-6.18-37.78%2.33%12.50%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:LDX
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd.
0.26
0.21
420.00%
AU:BDX
BCAL Diagnostics Limited
0.13
0.04
38.89%
AU:RHY
Rhythm Biosciences Ltd.
0.15
0.06
68.54%
AU:GSS
Genetic Signatures Ltd.
0.22
-0.42
-65.63%
AU:IIQ
Inoviq Ltd
0.39
-0.08
-16.30%
AU:MAP
Microba Life Sciences Limited
0.10
-0.19
-65.61%

Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Corporate Events

Lumos Wins Follow-On Contract to Lead FDA-Bound Trial for Aptatek’s PKU Device
Jan 19, 2026

Lumos Diagnostics has secured a follow-on contract with New Jersey-based Aptatek Biosciences to manage an Institutional Review Board-approved multi-centre clinical study aimed at obtaining US Food and Drug Administration clearance for PheCheck, an aptamer-based in-home monitoring device for phenylketonuria (PKU). Valued at about US$0.4 million and scheduled to begin in the second quarter of calendar 2026 for roughly six months, the contract expands Lumos’s role beyond product development into full clinical and regulatory support, including study management, data analysis and preparation of the clinical report for FDA submission, and runs in parallel with ongoing product development and verification work; successful clearance could position Lumos for further revenue from test and reader manufacturing, strengthening its presence in the high-value rare disease diagnostics segment as PheCheck, which already holds FDA Breakthrough Device designation, targets a critical unmet need in at-home PKU monitoring.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LDX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.28 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. stock, see the AU:LDX Stock Forecast page.

Lumos Diagnostics Issues New Shares on Option Exercises, Confirms Regulatory Compliance
Jan 9, 2026

Lumos Diagnostics has issued a total of 5,228,863 new fully paid ordinary shares following the exercise of unquoted options by Lind Global Fund II and a company employee, with the shares issued without a prospectus under relevant Corporations Act provisions. In a cleansing notice to the market, the company confirmed it remains compliant with its continuous disclosure and financial reporting obligations, stated there is no excluded information that must be disclosed ahead of its FY 2026 half-year report due by 27 February 2026, and indicated that the expected draft of that report does not contain undisclosed price-sensitive information, helping to maintain regulatory transparency for investors as its capital base modestly expands.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LDX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.31 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. stock, see the AU:LDX Stock Forecast page.

Lumos Diagnostics Seeks ASX Quotation for 5.2 Million New Shares
Jan 9, 2026

Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has applied to the ASX for quotation of 5,228,863 new ordinary fully paid shares, to be traded under its existing ticker LDX. The issuance of these additional securities, arising from the exercise or conversion of existing instruments, modestly expands the company’s listed share capital and may enhance liquidity for investors while signalling ongoing capital management activity.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LDX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.31 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. stock, see the AU:LDX Stock Forecast page.

Lumos Diagnostics Showcases FebriDx in Investor Webinar on Reducing Diagnostic Uncertainty
Jan 7, 2026

Lumos Diagnostics is hosting an investor and shareholder webinar titled “Reducing Diagnostic Uncertainty” to showcase how its FebriDx rapid diagnostic test supports evidence-based antibiotic stewardship in outpatient and urgent care settings, particularly during the busy cold and flu season. The session will feature real-world insights from WellStreet Urgent Care, where FebriDx has been integrated into high-volume workflows to improve diagnostic clarity, strengthen stewardship practices, and enhance clinical efficiency, underlining the test’s growing clinical adoption and highlighting Lumos’ positioning in the point-of-care diagnostics market; a recording will be available to all registered participants after the event.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LDX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.31 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. stock, see the AU:LDX Stock Forecast page.

Lumos Diagnostics Expands FebriDx® Distribution to the Baltic Region
Dec 18, 2025

Lumos Diagnostics has entered into a distribution partnership with Interlux Group to expand the availability of its FebriDx® point-of-care diagnostic test in the Baltic region, covering Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia. This collaboration strengthens Lumos’ presence in Europe, aligning with its strategy to broaden the reach of FebriDx® through established regional partners and enabling quicker adoption in primary care and other healthcare settings.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:LDX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.21 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. stock, see the AU:LDX Stock Forecast page.

Lumos Diagnostics Issues New Shares Following Employee Option Exercise
Nov 21, 2025

Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd has issued 35,341 fully paid ordinary shares following the exercise of 42,000 unquoted options by its employees. This issuance was conducted without disclosure under the Corporations Act, and the company confirms its compliance with relevant statutory provisions, indicating a transparent and regulated approach to its operational activities.

Lumos Diagnostics Expands ASX Quotation with New Securities
Nov 21, 2025

Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has announced the quotation of 35,341 fully paid ordinary securities on the ASX, following the exercise of options or conversion of other convertible securities. This move is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to enhance its financial flexibility and strengthen its market position, potentially impacting its operational capabilities and offering growth opportunities for stakeholders.

Lumos Diagnostics Secures Full U.S. Medicare Reimbursement for FebriDx®
Nov 21, 2025

Lumos Diagnostics has achieved full U.S. Medicare reimbursement recognition for its FebriDx® test, securing approval from all seven Medicare Administrative Contractors (MACs), including the final approval from National Government Services. This development ensures FebriDx is positioned for broad adoption across the U.S. healthcare system, facilitating access through Medicare Advantage, Medicaid, and private payors. The company will now focus on assisting MACs in developing written policies to streamline reimbursement claims, enhancing clarity and predictability for stakeholders.

Lumos Diagnostics Issues New Performance Rights to Employees
Nov 12, 2025

Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has announced the issuance of 6,007,000 performance rights as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move is aimed at enhancing employee engagement and aligning their interests with the company’s growth objectives, potentially impacting the company’s operational dynamics and stakeholder interests positively.

Lumos Diagnostics Expands Market Presence with New ASX Quotation
Oct 31, 2025

Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has announced the quotation of 1,323,875 fully paid ordinary securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) as of October 31, 2025. This move is part of the company’s strategy to enhance its financial flexibility and potentially expand its market presence, impacting its operations and positioning within the healthcare diagnostics industry.

Lumos Diagnostics Announces Director’s Interest Change
Oct 31, 2025

Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd has announced a change in the director’s interest, with Doug Ward acquiring 22,000,000 performance rights. This change, approved by shareholders at the company’s 2025 Annual General Meeting, reflects a strategic move to align the interests of the director with the company’s growth objectives, potentially impacting the company’s operations and stakeholder interests.

Lumos Diagnostics Issues 22 Million Performance Rights
Oct 31, 2025

Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. announced the issuance of 22 million unquoted performance rights as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move is likely to enhance employee engagement and align their interests with the company’s growth objectives, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and market positioning.

Lumos Diagnostics Adopts Revised Constitution to Enhance Governance
Oct 28, 2025

Lumos Diagnostics has announced the adoption of a revised Constitution, as approved by shareholders at their 2025 Annual General Meeting. This update is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to align its governance framework with current operational and strategic needs, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and stakeholder engagement.

Lumos Diagnostics Reports Successful 2025 AGM Resolutions
Oct 24, 2025

Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. announced the results of its 2025 Annual General Meeting, where all proposed resolutions were carried. Key resolutions included the adoption of the remuneration report, re-election of a director, approval of performance rights, and ratification of share issues. These outcomes reflect strong shareholder support and are expected to positively impact the company’s governance and strategic initiatives.

Lumos Diagnostics Outlines Strategic Vision at Annual General Meeting
Oct 23, 2025

Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. recently held its Annual General Meeting, where the CEO presented key updates about the company’s operations and strategic direction. The presentation emphasized the company’s commitment to advancing its diagnostic solutions and highlighted the challenges and opportunities in the market. While the document provided valuable insights into Lumos’ market positioning and future plans, it also contained disclaimers about forward-looking statements, advising stakeholders to consider the inherent risks and uncertainties.

Lumos Diagnostics Marks Major Milestones in FY25 with Strategic Partnerships and U.S. Market Expansion
Oct 23, 2025

Lumos Diagnostics has made significant strides in FY25, transitioning from an early-stage business to an emerging global diagnostics company. The company has expanded its distribution partnerships, notably with Henry Schein and PHASE Scientific, and has secured reimbursement for FebriDx on the U.S. Medicare fee schedule. A successful CLIA waiver trial for FebriDx has been completed, with the application submitted to the FDA, potentially expanding the U.S. market significantly. A new distribution agreement with PHASE Scientific could be worth up to US$317 million, marking a major milestone for Lumos. The company remains well-funded, with a focus on disciplined execution and expanding its product’s clinical use, supported by BARDA.

Lumos Diagnostics Reports Strong Q1 FY26 Performance and Strategic Advances
Oct 22, 2025

Lumos Diagnostics reported a steady revenue of US$3.4 million for the first quarter of FY26, with a notable 300% increase in product revenue driven by the adoption of FebriDx® in the U.S. The company secured a significant distribution agreement with PHASE Scientific and is awaiting feedback on a CLIA waiver submission for FebriDx. Lumos also continues its development projects, including an expanded agreement with Hologic for a next-generation diagnostic product, and has secured a loan facility to support its working capital needs.

Lumos Diagnostics Launches Pediatric Study for FebriDx® in the U.S.
Oct 22, 2025

Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd has initiated a pediatric study for its FebriDx® device in the United States, targeting children aged 2 to 12 years. This study, supported by BARDA with significant funding, aims to expand the device’s usage to differentiate bacterial from non-bacterial acute respiratory infections in younger children, potentially increasing Lumos’ market reach significantly if successful.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 04, 2026