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Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd.
(Sydney:LDX)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.09
▼(-72.50% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/14/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (losses, declining revenue, leverage, and historically poor cash flow) and bearish technical trends (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). The main offset is a constructive earnings-call outlook driven by the PHASE distribution agreement, reimbursement progress, margin strength, and improving cash metrics, but this upside is still contingent on CLIA-waiver approval and execution.
Positive Factors
Large exclusive PHASE U.S. distribution deal
A contractual minimum USD 317m over six years materially increases multi-year revenue visibility and de-risks U.S. commercialization by outsourcing distribution to an established partner. This creates a durable sales channel and revenue backlog that supports scale-up and planning over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Commercial upside contingent on CLIA waiver
The CLIA waiver is a structural gating item: without it, physician-office adoption and the PHASE distribution ramp are constrained. This conditionality means the material revenue stream from the PHASE contract and resultant margin/cash benefits remain speculative until regulatory approval is secured.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large exclusive PHASE U.S. distribution deal
A contractual minimum USD 317m over six years materially increases multi-year revenue visibility and de-risks U.S. commercialization by outsourcing distribution to an established partner. This creates a durable sales channel and revenue backlog that supports scale-up and planning over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. (LDX) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$81.22M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.63M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.86
Revenue Growth-14.85%
EPS Growth-41.04%
CountryAU
Employees29
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Specialties
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.01
Shares Outstanding944,389,160
10 Day Avg. Volume3,659,446
30 Day Avg. Volume5,628,467
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)1.96
Price to Sales (P/S)0.97
P/FCF Ratio-1.29
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$0.08Price Target Upside-75.00% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)>-0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$35.59M
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Limited develops, manufactures, and commercializes point-of-care diagnostic products for diagnosis and management of infectious diseases in the United States. The company’s products include FebriDx, a point-of-care diagn...
How the Company Makes Money
Lumos generates revenue primarily by selling point-of-care diagnostic products and related consumables. This typically includes (1) sales of test kits/assays (the recurring, consumable component used per test), and (2) sales or placements of any a...
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive: management secured a material exclusive U.S. distribution agreement (USD 317M minimum), completed and submitted the CLIA waiver study while expressing near-term optimism about approval, achieved strong product revenue growth and high gross margins, and materially improved cash flow and adjusted EBITDA versus prior years. Key risks remain including an outstanding CLIA waiver approval (which drives the commercial ramp), continued adjusted EBITDA losses, declines in IP/services revenue timing, and the need for incremental manufacturing capacity and near-term financing actions. Overall, the highlights (large distribution deal, reimbursement, margin improvement, improved cash flow, nondilutive funding and product momentum) outweigh the lowlights tied mainly to timing, conditionality of the waiver, and continued operating losses.Positive Updates
Secured Major U.S. Distribution Agreement (PHASE)
Signed a 6-year exclusive U.S. distribution agreement for FebriDx with PHASE Scientific that guarantees a minimum of USD 317 million in sales to Lumos over the term; PHASE also paid a USD 1.0 million exclusivity fee recognized in H1 revenue.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Still Negative
Adjusted EBITDA loss of USD 1.4 million in H1, so the company remains unprofitable on an adjusted basis despite improvement versus FY24, with ongoing OpEx increases related to trials and U.S. commercial scaling.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Secured Major U.S. Distribution Agreement (PHASE)
Signed a 6-year exclusive U.S. distribution agreement for FebriDx with PHASE Scientific that guarantees a minimum of USD 317 million in sales to Lumos over the term; PHASE also paid a USD 1.0 million exclusivity fee recognized in H1 revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that CLIA‑waiver for FebriDx is expected imminently (targeted in March), which would activate the 6‑year U.S. exclusive PHASE distribution deal guaranteeing a minimum USD 317 million in sales to Lumos (PHASE paid a USD 1.0m exclusivity fee in H1 and is expected to prepay USD 5.0m on waiver), and highlighted that FebriDx has Medicare/MAC reimbursement of USD 41.38 per test (seven MACs agreed); BARDA‑funded pediatric work (~USD 6.2m) should add ~20% to the addressable market with the pediatric trial expected to finish by year‑end. Financial guidance reinforced H1 FY26 results: revenue USD 6.1m (products USD 1.7m vs USD 0.8m prior, services USD 4.4m vs USD 5.5m), IP revenue USD 1.0m (vs 2.6m), gross profit USD 4.2m and 68% gross margin, adjusted EBITDA loss USD 1.4m (improved from a USD 4.2m loss in H1 FY24), operating cash flow +USD 0.1m (vs -6.8m), BARDA receipts USD 2.8m, and liquidity support with USD 1.0m drawn on a finance facility (USD 4.0m remaining); management said current manufacturing capacity can meet expected PHASE demand for the first two years but will require investment to scale thereafter.Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
35
Negative
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
Cash Flow
30
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.33M | 12.50M | 11.13M | 10.54M | 11.63M | 18.85M |
| Gross Profit | 364.53K | 7.91M | 7.10M | 5.32M | 4.46M | 8.60M |
| EBITDA | -9.29M | -4.63M | -5.44M | -4.93M | -25.67M | -10.69M |
| Net Income | -9.35M | -7.18M | -8.59M | -8.97M | -45.72M | -15.03M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 21.12M | 20.81M | 26.84M | 25.42M | 36.94M | 97.99M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.00M | 1.96M | 6.48M | 3.02M | 7.98M | 44.89M |
| Total Debt | 11.85M | 6.99M | 8.06M | 9.79M | 7.19M | 7.96M |
| Total Liabilities | 15.88M | 14.65M | 19.73M | 15.92M | 19.05M | 39.71M |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.24M | 6.16M | 7.11M | 9.50M | 17.89M | 58.28M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.47M | -9.39M | 848.00K | -9.79M | -22.39M | -16.77M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -2.24M | -9.33M | 946.00K | -9.64M | -18.04M | -10.89M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -225.41K | -53.00K | -98.00K | 4.31M | -4.36M | -8.33M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -50.75K | 5.28M | 2.63M | 652.00K | -10.92M | 63.27M |
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
0.32
Price Trends
0.11
Negative
0.17
Negative
0.20
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
37.65
Neutral
24.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:LDX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.10, above the 50-day MA of 0.11, and above the 200-day MA of 0.20, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:LDX.
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | AU$10.58B | 19.45 | 6.39% | 4.69% | 13.14% | -2.73% | |
59 Neutral | AU$427.13M | 15.06 | 16.35% | 4.60% | 1.12% | -12.02% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
45 Neutral | AU$81.22M | -4.99 | -164.12% | ― | -14.85% | -41.04% | |
44 Neutral | AU$5.67M | -0.43 | -184.98% | ― | ― | ― | |
40 Underperform | AU$14.31M | -1.33 | -23.93% | ― | 9.69% | 52.31% | |
39 Underperform | AU$28.02M | -3.82 | -164.22% | ― | ― | 26.04% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. Corporate Events
Lumos Diagnostics Reports Lapse of 43,000 Performance Rights
Jul 14, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has notified the market that 43,000 performance rights on issue under ASX security code LDXAZ have lapsed. These rights ceased because the specified performance or vesting conditions were not met, or are no longer c...
Lumos Diagnostics Shuts Shareholder Loan as Capital Raise Leaves It Debt-Free
Jul 2, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has closed its A$5.0 million secured loan facility with major shareholders Tenmile Ventures and Ryder Capital, established in September 2025 to provide working capital while pursuing a CLIA waiver for its FebriDx® test. The ...
Lumos Diagnostics Secures A$709,837 R&D Tax Rebate to Advance Point-of-Care Platforms
Jun 29, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has received a cash refund of A$709,837 under the Australian Government’s Research and Development Tax Incentive for the financial year ended 30 June 2025. The rebate reflects the company’s ongoing investment in its p...
Lumos Diagnostics Director Sam Lanyon Increases Shareholding via On‑Market Purchase
Jun 25, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has disclosed a change in the interests of director Sam Lanyon, who has increased his direct holding of fully paid ordinary shares in the company. Lanyon acquired 249,725 shares via an on‑market purchase valued at $29,967, ...
Lumos Diagnostics Seeks ASX Quotation for 15.2 Million New Shares
Jun 22, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 15,178,000 new ordinary fully paid shares, issued on June 19, 2026. The new securities arise from the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible instru...
Lumos Diagnostics Director Catherine Robson Increases Indirect Shareholding
Jun 19, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. disclosed a change in director Catherine Robson’s indirect shareholding, reflecting increased personal investment in the company. Acting through a superannuation fund structure, Robson acquired 300,000 fully p...
Lumos Diagnostics Updates Director Doug Ward’s Expanded Equity Holding
Jun 5, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has disclosed a change in the interests of director Doug Ward, who received 3,706,331 fully paid ordinary shares, taking his holding to 6,924,331 shares, alongside existing unlisted options and performance rights. T...
Lumos ramps up U.S. rollout of FebriDx ahead of investor briefing
Jun 4, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics is expanding the U.S. rollout of its FebriDx rapid point-of-care test, which differentiates bacterial from non-bacterial respiratory infections in about 10 minutes. The company operates in the diagnostic testing industry, offerin...
Lumos Secures BARDA Milestone as FebriDx CLIA Waiver Unlocks US$1bn Market
May 7, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has received a milestone payment of about US$0.5 million from the U.S. Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, bringing total funding tied to its FebriDx CLIA waiver study to nearly US$3 million and extending its ...
Lumos Director Catherine Robson Increases Indirect Shareholding via Purchases and Share Plan
May 1, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has disclosed a change in director Catherine Robson’s indirect interest in the company’s shares, reflecting increased alignment between board leadership and shareholders. Robson, whose holdings are held ...
Lumos Director Increases Stake via Share Purchase Plan
May 1, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics director Sam Lanyon has increased his equity stake in the company through participation in a recently announced Share Purchase Plan. Via his superannuation vehicle Sicksamba Pty Ltd, Lanyon acquired 133,333 fully paid ordinary sh...
Lumos Diagnostics Issues 44.4 Million Unlisted Options
May 1, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has notified the market of the issuance of 44,444,422 unlisted options as unquoted equity securities. The options, which will not be quoted on the ASX, were issued on May 1, 2026, reflecting a capital management mov...
Lumos Diagnostics Issues 455,544 New Unlisted Options
May 1, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has notified the market of the issue of 455,544 unquoted options as new unlisted securities, effective 1 May 2026. The move modestly expands the company’s equity-based instruments, which may form part of its c...
Lumos Diagnostics Seeks ASX Quotation for 1.18 Million New Shares
May 1, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd., an ASX-listed medical diagnostics company trading under ticker LDX, develops and supplies diagnostic solutions for the healthcare sector. The company has applied for quotation of 1,177,770 new ordinary fully paid s...
Lumos Diagnostics Raises Fresh Capital to Accelerate FebriDx Expansion
May 1, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has reported the results of its non-underwritten Share Purchase Plan, which closed on 24 April 2026 and followed a A$20 million institutional placement completed in March. The company raised A$265,000 from eligible shareholders u...
Lumos Director Increases Shareholding and Corrects Prior Holding Record
Apr 30, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd has reported a change in the interests of director Sam Lanyon, reflecting both direct and indirect holdings in the company’s fully paid ordinary shares and unquoted options. The notice also corrects a prior adm...
Lumos Diagnostics Launches A$20m Equity Raising via Placement and SPP
Apr 21, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Ltd. has outlined plans to raise approximately A$20 million through a non-underwritten institutional placement of new fully paid ordinary shares. In parallel, the company will offer additional new shares to eligible exis...
Lumos Diagnostics Wins Key U.S. Clearance as FebriDx Drives Strong Quarterly Growth
Apr 20, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics reported strong third-quarter FY26 momentum as U.S. regulators granted a 510(k) clearance with a CLIA waiver for its FebriDx test, expanding its addressable U.S. market to about 80 million patients annually and opening access to ...
Lumos Diagnostics Announces Lapse of Performance Rights and Options
Apr 15, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has notified the market of the cessation of certain equity-linked securities, including 5,000 performance rights and 173,824 options, after the conditions attached to these instruments were not met or became incapable of being sa...
Lumos Diagnostics Sets Q3 FY26 Results Date and Reminds Investors of Share Purchase Plan
Apr 15, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has outlined key upcoming investor events and capital-raising opportunities as it prepares to report its third-quarter FY26 results. The company, a specialist in rapid point-of-care diagnostics, plans to release its Q3 FY26 numbe...
Lumos Diagnostics Widens FebriDx Rollout Across WellStreet Urgent Care Network
Apr 14, 2026
Lumos Diagnostics has secured an expansion of its agreement with WellStreet Urgent Care to roll out its FebriDx rapid point-of-care test across 43 additional locations in Georgia and Michigan, following a successful pilot at a single Piedmont Heal...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.