BCAL Diagnostics Limited (BDX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$44.17M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 421.90K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.82
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 23.85%
• Country: AU
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 368,067,630
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 534,308
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 421,904
• PEG Ratio: 0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1047.06
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.27
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.11 ▲(12.00% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/13/26

The score is primarily dragged down by very weak financial performance (steep revenue decline, large losses, and negative cash generation). Technicals are a partial offset with an uptrend and positive MACD, but overbought signals (RSI ~80) raise near-term risk. Valuation remains challenged because losses make the negative P/E less informative and there is no dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Focused diagnostic product and IP

BCAL Diagnostics has a narrowly focused business model developing blood-based breast cancer diagnostics and related intellectual property. A clear clinical focus and proprietary assays create durable product differentiation and an addressable medical market that supports long-term commercialization if clinical/regulatory milestones are met.

Manageable leverage and capital structure

The company’s leverage is moderate, with a debt-to-equity ratio around 0.38 and a relatively high equity ratio. This balance sheet structure reduces near-term refinancing risk and provides flexibility to fund R&D or commercialization activities over the next several months without excessive fixed-charge burdens, supporting operational continuity while losses persist.

Some free-cash-flow coverage of losses

Despite negative operating cash flow, the reported free cash flow to net income ratio above 1.0 indicates pockets of cash conversion that partially offset accounting losses. This suggests limited but meaningful cash generation levers exist, which can extend runway and reduce immediate financing dependence while management pursues commercialization or cost improvements.

Negative Factors

Severe revenue collapse

A near-total revenue collapse is a structural red flag: a -99.16% decline indicates loss of commercial traction or one-off revenue loss that undermines scalability. Over a 2–6 month horizon this greatly increases dependence on external funding and hampers the company’s ability to invest in clinical validation, commercial rollout, or durable growth initiatives.

Deep and persistent losses

Very large negative margins signal that the business is destroying shareholder capital and is not covering operating costs from revenues. Persistent negative EBIT/EBITDA and a negative ROE (−116.40%) reflect structural profitability issues that will require either material commercial improvement or repeated financing to correct, weakening long-term viability until resolved.

Negative operating cash flow and shrinking FCF

Core operations are consuming cash and free cash flow is declining, with a reported FCF growth rate of -14.23%. Negative operating cash flow is a durable operational weakness that constrains reinvestment in trials, regulatory activities, and commercialization, increasing the likelihood of dilution or higher-cost financing to sustain the business.

BCAL Diagnostics Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BCAL Diagnostics Limited, a biotechnology company, engages in developing a non-invasive laboratory blood test for the detection of breast cancer. It develops BCAL test, a lipid biomarker blood test with the potential to be used for breast cancer prevention, screening, and monitoring; and in vitro diagnostic test (IVD) that confirms a fingerprint of lipid biomarkers extracted from extracellular vesicles from a patient's plasma or blood sample to diagnose the presence of breast cancer cells in a patient's body. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

BCAL Diagnostics generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diagnostic tests and related services to healthcare providers, hospitals, and laboratories. The company may also receive income from royalties or licensing agreements associated with its proprietary technologies. Key revenue streams include direct sales of diagnostic kits, contracts for clinical testing services, and potential partnerships with pharmaceutical companies for co-development initiatives. Additionally, BDX may benefit from grants and funding from research institutions or government bodies aimed at advancing healthcare innovations.

BCAL Diagnostics Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Weak financial health: revenue fell sharply (-99.16%), profitability is deeply negative (net margin -334.66% with negative EBIT/EBITDA margins), and operating/free cash flow are negative. While leverage appears manageable (debt-to-equity 0.38; equity ratio 62.77%), returns are poor (ROE -116.40%) and cash generation raises sustainability risk.

Income Statement

BCAL Diagnostics Limited shows a concerning trend in its income statement. The company has experienced a significant decline in revenue, with a negative revenue growth rate of -99.16% in the most recent year. The net profit margin is deeply negative at -334.66%, indicating substantial losses relative to revenue. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies and high costs. Overall, the income statement highlights severe profitability challenges and declining revenue.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of BCAL Diagnostics Limited reveals moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.38, which is manageable. However, the return on equity is negative at -116.40%, indicating that the company is not generating returns for its shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 62.77%, suggesting a reasonable proportion of equity financing. Despite the low leverage, the negative ROE points to profitability issues.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, with a free cash flow growth rate of -14.23%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating that the company is not generating cash from its operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly positive at 1.13, suggesting some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow. Overall, the cash flow situation is concerning due to negative cash generation.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.31M	21.64K	3.10M	2.79M	718.67K	275.25K
Gross Profit	915.90K	21.64K	3.10M	2.79M	698.06K	275.25K
EBITDA	-7.74M	-6.19M	-5.67M	-7.72M	-4.06M	-1.80M
Net Income	-7.16M	-7.24M	-6.40M	-5.06M	-3.39M	-1.52M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.17M	9.91M	12.27M	8.37M	10.59M	4.13M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.33M	4.52M	6.47M	3.17M	9.57M	3.41M
Total Debt	3.78M	2.38M	1.52M	1.06M	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	4.68M	3.69M	3.68M	3.16M	950.42K	525.60K
Stockholders Equity	2.50M	6.22M	8.59M	5.21M	9.64M	3.61M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-6.46M	-6.92M	-5.67M	-6.41M	-7.25M	-1.21M
Operating Cash Flow	-5.96M	-6.14M	-4.52M	-6.05M	-3.22M	-1.21M
Investing Cash Flow	-196.42K	-787.67K	-1.15M	3.64M	-4.03M	-3.85K
Financing Cash Flow	2.48M	4.97M	8.97M	13.24K	9.41M	4.20M

BCAL Diagnostics Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 0.10
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BDX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.12, below the 50-day MA of 0.11, and above the 200-day MA of 0.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:BDX.

BCAL Diagnostics Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
IBX	49 Neutral	AU$11.28M	-2.29	―	―	-47.02%	94.37%
LDX	48 Neutral	AU$202.27M	-16.15	-111.23%	―	12.96%	40.81%
BDX	45 Neutral	AU$44.17M	-6.12	-97.79%	―	―	23.85%
RHY	43 Neutral	AU$69.21M	-10.09	-501.54%	―	―	56.42%
IIQ	38 Underperform	AU$49.98M	-5.61	-37.78%	―	2.33%	12.50%

BCAL Diagnostics Limited Corporate Events

BCAL Diagnostics Accelerates Commercial Rollout of Cancer Blood Tests and Targets Broader Market for BREASTESTplus

BCAL Diagnostics has commenced the commercial rollout of its Avantect blood-based diagnostic tests for pancreatic and ovarian cancer, launching first at Sydney Breast Clinic, where it recorded about 1,000 enquiries, 60 bookings and 20 tests in the first 11 days. The company is expanding access via Sonic Healthcare pathology sites across New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria, onboarding additional ovarian screening centres and a first Melbourne site, and has established operational readiness with laboratory, logistics and reporting processes in place. Tests are priced at $1,495 per individual test and $1,995 for combined testing, delivering positive gross margins at current volumes, and BCAL expects Avantect revenues of $300,000 in calendar 2026, while working with national pancreatic cancer advocacy groups on health economic evidence to support reimbursement. In parallel, BREASTESTplus continues to gain traction, with 108 tests sold in Q2 FY26 and new study data in 613 women with high breast density showing 90% sensitivity and a projected negative predictive value of 99.7%, significantly broadening its potential clinical coverage. Following engagement with the TGA and ongoing studies in about 800 Australian women, BCAL expects to launch an enhanced version of BREASTESTplus with broader clinical utility in the Australian market by the end of June 2026, underscoring its strategy to scale clinical adoption and strengthen its competitive position in early cancer detection.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BDX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BCAL Diagnostics Limited stock, see the AU:BDX Stock Forecast page.

BCAL Diagnostics Ramps Up Cancer Test Launches as Clinical Data and Funding Strengthen Growth Plans

BCAL Diagnostics has completed preparations for the Australian launch of its Avantect blood tests for pancreatic and ovarian cancer, with initial availability from 19 January 2026 in Sydney and a national rollout planned later in the year, targeting high‑risk patients who currently lack effective early detection options. The company is also expanding the clinical and commercial footprint of its BREASTESTplus blood test for women with dense breast tissue, supported by new Australian study data showing high sensitivity and a strong negative predictive value, and by national ethics approval to establish a registry of up to 24,000 women that is expected to underpin wider clinician adoption and potential reimbursement pathways; financially, BCAL ended the quarter with $3.3 million in cash, added a $10 million convertible note facility with $3 million drawn, received a $2.5 million R&D tax refund, and is now focused on revenue generation and market awareness following the launch of its new cancer tests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BDX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.13 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BCAL Diagnostics Limited stock, see the AU:BDX Stock Forecast page.

BCAL Diagnostics to Launch Nationwide Cancer Detection Tests in Australia

BCAL Diagnostics Limited has announced the launch of Avantect® early detection blood tests for pancreatic and ovarian cancer in Australia, starting January 2026. This initiative, in partnership with ClearNote Health and facilitated by Sonic Healthcare’s pathology network, aims to provide nationwide access to these tests, which utilize advanced AI/ML algorithms for high predictive accuracy. The introduction of Avantect tests is expected to significantly enhance early cancer detection, offering more treatment options and potentially improving survival rates for patients.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BDX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.09 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BCAL Diagnostics Limited stock, see the AU:BDX Stock Forecast page.

BCAL Diagnostics Launches Groundbreaking Breast Cancer Detection Test

BCAL Diagnostics Limited has achieved a significant milestone with the commercial launch of BREASTESTplus™, a world-first diagnostic test designed for the early detection of breast cancer. The company is navigating the challenges of market entry, focusing on expanding its market presence and scaling revenue generation. BCAL is also advancing its early-detection programs for ovarian and pancreatic cancers, aiming to diversify its revenue streams and enhance its clinical utility. A $10 million convertible note facility is being considered to support these efforts, with $5 million already committed, ensuring the company’s operational sustainability and market expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BDX) stock is a Hold with a A$0.09 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BCAL Diagnostics Limited stock, see the AU:BDX Stock Forecast page.

BCAL Diagnostics Secures $2.5 Million R&D Tax Rebate for Cancer Detection Advancements

BCAL Diagnostics Limited has received approximately $2.5 million from the Australian Government’s R&D Tax Incentive, aiding its development of early cancer detection tests. This funding supports the commercial launch and enhancement of its BREASTEST plus™ product, which now covers 50% of eligible women with dense breasts, bolstering BCAL’s position in the women’s health sector.