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Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd (AU:HLI)
ASX:HLI

Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd (HLI) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:HLI

Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd

(Sydney:HLI)

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Outperform 78 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
AU$7.00
▲(29.39% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
The score is driven by attractive valuation (low P/E and strong dividend yield) and supportive technical uptrend. Financials are solid overall due to strong profitability and very low leverage, but are tempered by multi-year revenue declines and cash-flow volatility.
Positive Factors
Low and declining leverage
Material debt reduction to ~A$8.5m and modest debt-to-equity ratios signal a conservatively levered balance sheet. This durable strength increases financial flexibility, reduces interest and refinancing risk, and preserves regulatory capital buffers critical for a mortgage insurer through housing cycles.
Sustained strong profitability
High and consistent net margins since 2020 reflect disciplined underwriting, pricing power and effective claims management. Durable profitability supports internal capital generation, ability to pay dividends, and rebuild reserves after loss events, strengthening resilience over the medium term.
Stable, structurally recurring LMI revenue mix
The core LMI business delivers recurring premium income and investment yield from float. Structural demand from lenders for high-LVR mortgages and regulatory frameworks that favor LMI create a predictable revenue base and steady underwriting opportunity over several months to years.
Negative Factors
Multi-year revenue contraction
Sustained top-line decline reduces scale and premium volumes, undermines operating leverage and may indicate weaker mortgage origination or market share loss. Persisting revenue contraction can erode long-term earnings potential and constrain capital deployment even if margins remain strong.
Uneven cash generation
Volatile operating and free cash flow, including a negative year in 2023 and decline in 2025, weakens the firm's ability to reliably fund claims, dividends or capital initiatives. For an insurer, inconsistent cash conversion raises funding and liquidity risk across stress cycles.
Declining equity and total assets since 2021
A downward drift in equity and assets reduces the capital buffer available to absorb underwriting losses and meet regulatory requirements. Over the medium term this can limit growth capacity, increase probability of capital raising in adverse scenarios, and heighten sensitivity to claims.

Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd (HLI) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHelia Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the loan mortgage insurance business in Australia. The company facilitates residential mortgage lending by transferring risk from lenders to lenders mortgage insurance (LMI) providers, primarily for high loan to value ratio residential mortgage loans; and portfolio of seasoned home loans. Helia Group Limited was formerly known as Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Limited and changed its name to Helia Group Limited in November 2022. The company was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in North Sydney, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyGenworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd generates revenue primarily through the sale of mortgage insurance premiums. When lenders provide loans to borrowers with less than a 20% deposit, they require mortgage insurance to mitigate risk; Genworth charges these lenders a premium based on the loan amount and the risk profile of the borrower. This premium revenue constitutes the company's principal revenue stream. Additionally, Genworth benefits from investment income derived from its reserves and surplus capital, which are invested in various financial instruments. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships with banks and financial institutions that enhance its distribution channels and market reach, contributing further to its earnings. Overall, the combination of premium income and investment returns forms the foundation of Genworth's financial performance.

Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong and consistent profitability post-2020 and a conservatively levered balance sheet (including a sharp debt reduction by 2025). Offsetting factors are multi-year revenue contraction, some earnings softening after the 2023 peak, and uneven cash generation (notably negative operating/free cash flow in 2023).
Income Statement
73
Positive
Profitability is strong and consistent post-2020, with high operating and net profitability in 2021–2024 (net profit margins roughly in the ~32%–52% range where provided). However, revenue has been shrinking for several years (negative revenue growth in 2023–2025, including a sharp decline in 2025), and earnings softened in 2024–2025 versus the 2023 peak. The 2020 loss highlights cyclical/credit-risk sensitivity, even though results have since rebounded.
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Leverage is low and improving materially: total debt fell from ~A$200m (2020–2024 range) to ~A$8.5m in 2025, and debt-to-equity remained modest in years reported (~0.13–0.18). Equity is sizable (about A$1.0–1.6bn over the period), supporting resilience. The main weakness is the downward drift in equity and total assets since 2021, which may indicate capital returns, reserve changes, or balance-sheet contraction alongside lower revenue.
Cash Flow
62
Positive
Cash generation is uneven: operating cash flow was very strong in 2020–2021 and positive again in 2022 and 2024–2025, but turned negative in 2023 (with negative free cash flow), showing volatility. Free cash flow generally tracks net income closely in the years provided, which is a positive quality indicator, but free cash flow declined in 2025 and overall cash-flow stability is weaker than earnings stability.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue471.20M517.68M538.29M579.69M372.09M
Gross Profit471.20M517.68M511.71M466.24M372.09M
EBITDA362.20M475.98M421.37M303.02M290.26M
Net Income244.90M231.54M275.06M186.77M192.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.54B2.93B3.20B3.46B3.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments45.70M112.38M57.05M23.84M76.72M
Total Debt8.50M196.52M197.29M191.06M195.89M
Total Liabilities1.52B1.85B2.06B2.26B2.36B
Stockholders Equity1.02B1.08B1.14B1.21B1.56B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow108.40M134.33M-18.27M75.51M344.67M
Operating Cash Flow108.40M134.43M-18.03M76.11M344.67M
Investing Cash Flow324.00M213.84M397.10M199.89M-344.26M
Financing Cash Flow-499.10M-292.93M-345.90M-328.96M-27.69M

Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price5.41
Price Trends
50DMA
5.68
Positive
100DMA
5.64
Positive
200DMA
5.38
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.10
Negative
RSI
55.86
Neutral
STOCH
60.96
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:HLI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.77, below the 50-day MA of 5.68, and above the 200-day MA of 5.38, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:HLI.

Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
AU$1.66B6.1225.94%5.51%-7.39%30.01%
69
Neutral
AU$1.02B9.1512.11%11.71%-6.49%-5.40%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
56
Neutral
AU$1.80B8.085.31%16.78%22.86%
53
Neutral
AU$768.68M7.115.92%4.63%26.01%-17.55%
50
Neutral
AU$1.11B4.1011.19%11.83%2.11%15.71%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:HLI
Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd
5.99
1.12
23.07%
AU:PPM
Pepper Money Ltd
2.20
0.94
74.60%
AU:JDO
Judo Capital Holdings Limited
1.57
-0.43
-21.50%
AU:LFG
Liberty Financial Group Ltd
3.65
0.34
10.27%
AU:MYS
Mystate Limited
4.36
0.76
21.01%

Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd Corporate Events

Helia Seeks ASX Quotation for New Shares from Employee Incentive Plan
Feb 25, 2026

Helia Group Limited has applied for the quotation of 292,747 new fully paid ordinary shares on the ASX, to be issued on 2 March 2026. The new securities arise from an employee incentive scheme and will be quoted, signaling further equity-based remuneration for staff and a modest expansion of the company’s listed share base.

The issuance under an employee incentive scheme underscores Helia’s continued use of equity to attract and retain talent in a competitive financial services market. For shareholders, the move represents a small level of dilution but also aligns employee interests more closely with long-term company performance and share price outcomes.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HLI) stock is a Buy with a A$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd stock, see the AU:HLI Stock Forecast page.

Helia Group Seeks ASX Quotation for 1.39 Million New Shares Under Employee Scheme
Feb 24, 2026

Helia Group Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 1,388,519 new ordinary fully paid shares, with the securities issued on 26 February 2026 under an employee incentive scheme. The issuance expands Helia’s quoted share capital and reflects ongoing use of equity-based remuneration, which may marginally dilute existing shareholders while aiming to align employee interests with long-term company performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HLI) stock is a Buy with a A$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd stock, see the AU:HLI Stock Forecast page.

Helia issues new unquoted share rights under employee incentive scheme
Feb 24, 2026

Helia Group Limited has notified the market of the issue of 864,797 unquoted share rights under its employee incentive scheme, split across two tranches scheduled for late February and early March 2026. These share rights are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, signalling the company’s continued use of long-term equity incentives to align staff remuneration with company performance and support its ongoing operational and strategic objectives.

The issuance of these unquoted securities reflects Helia’s focus on strengthening employee engagement and retention in a competitive financial services labour market. For existing shareholders, the move indicates a measured approach to equity-based compensation that may have a modest dilutive effect over time while aiming to reinforce management alignment with long-term value creation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HLI) stock is a Buy with a A$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd stock, see the AU:HLI Stock Forecast page.

Helia outlines 2025 results and tightens guidance on investor disclosures
Feb 24, 2026

Helia Group Limited has released its full-year 2025 financial results and accompanying investor presentation, outlining statutory and non-IFRS financial information drawn from its audited income statement and balance sheet. The company stresses that the presentation is general in nature, is not investment advice, and should be read alongside its other disclosures lodged with the Australian Securities Exchange.

Helia emphasises that parts of the document may include forward-looking statements that are inherently uncertain and subject to change, and it disclaims any obligation to update them except as required by law. The group also highlights legal and distribution restrictions, reinforces that investors must rely on their own analysis and professional advice, and reserves all rights over reproduction of its materials, underscoring a cautious and compliance-focused approach to investor communications.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HLI) stock is a Buy with a A$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd stock, see the AU:HLI Stock Forecast page.

Helia lifts profit and payouts as it reshapes strategy in shifting mortgage insurance market
Feb 24, 2026

Helia Group Limited reported a 6% rise in statutory net profit after tax to $244.9 million for 2025, with underlying profit up 12% to $247.0 million, and announced higher ordinary and special dividends reflecting its strong capital position. Management highlighted resilient performance in a challenging lenders’ mortgage insurance market, as the company navigates the non-renewal of its CBA contract, regulatory schemes that are shrinking the first-home-buyer segment, and a strategic shift toward upgraders and investors while simplifying operations and increasing automation to sustain growth.

The Australian economy’s recovery, robust labour market, and rising dwelling values have supported mortgage serviceability and kept claims benign, even as cost-of-living pressures and interest-rate movements weigh on borrowers. LMI industry premium growth remains modest due to government deposit schemes and lender self-insurance, prompting Helia to refine its go-to-market strategy, renew key lender relationships, and advocate for policy settings that complement rather than displace private mortgage insurance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HLI) stock is a Buy with a A$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd stock, see the AU:HLI Stock Forecast page.

Helia Releases 2026 Corporate Governance Statement
Feb 24, 2026

Helia Group Limited has released its Corporate Governance Statement dated 25 February 2026, in line with ASX Listing Rule 4.7.4 requirements. The statement, authorised by the board, outlines Helia’s governance framework and reinforces its adherence to regulatory and market standards, signalling ongoing attention to transparent oversight and compliance for investors and other stakeholders.

The publication underscores Helia’s intent to maintain strong governance practices as part of its positioning on the Australian Securities Exchange. This focus on governance is likely to support investor confidence and demonstrates the board’s formal involvement in setting and endorsing the company’s oversight and accountability structures.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HLI) stock is a Buy with a A$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd stock, see the AU:HLI Stock Forecast page.

Helia Files Appendix 4G and Updates Corporate Governance Disclosures
Feb 24, 2026

Helia Group Limited has lodged its Appendix 4G with the Australian Securities Exchange, detailing how its corporate governance disclosures align with ASX Corporate Governance Council principles for the year ended 31 December 2025. The company has also confirmed that its updated corporate governance statement, current as of 25 February 2026, is available on its investor website and has been approved by the board, reinforcing transparency and compliance for shareholders and regulators.

The filing of Appendix 4G, alongside the corporate governance statement, acts as both a roadmap for stakeholders to locate key governance disclosures and a verification tool that Helia is meeting ASX Listing Rule requirements. This reinforces the company’s governance framework, supports investor confidence, and underscores its commitment to best-practice oversight in a regulated financial services environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HLI) stock is a Buy with a A$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd stock, see the AU:HLI Stock Forecast page.

Helia Group declares A$0.83 half‑year dividend with March payment
Feb 24, 2026

Helia Group Limited has declared a dividend of A$0.83 per fully paid ordinary share, relating to the six‑month period ended 31 December 2025. The distribution applies to its HLI ordinary shares traded on the ASX.

The company has set 10 March 2026 as the ex‑dividend date, 11 March 2026 as the record date, and 26 March 2026 as the payment date. This payout signals the board’s decision to return capital to shareholders for the latest half‑year period, providing income certainty and a clear timetable for investors to position their holdings.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HLI) stock is a Buy with a A$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd stock, see the AU:HLI Stock Forecast page.

Helia Group Releases 2025 Annual Report to ASX
Feb 24, 2026

Helia Group Limited has released its Annual Report for the financial year ended 31 December 2025, providing shareholders and the market with a detailed account of the company’s performance and activities. The publication, authorised by the Board, underlines Helia’s ongoing strategy of accelerating financial wellbeing through home ownership and offers investors and analysts a formal basis for assessing the group’s operational and financial position.

The release of the 2025 Annual Report also reinforces Helia’s commitment to transparency and regulatory compliance as an ASX-listed entity. By making the report publicly available, the company ensures that stakeholders, including investors, analysts and media, have the necessary information to evaluate Helia’s progress and outlook within the Australian mortgage insurance and housing finance landscape.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HLI) stock is a Buy with a A$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd stock, see the AU:HLI Stock Forecast page.

Helia Sets 2026 AGM Date and Director Nomination Deadline
Feb 19, 2026

Helia Group Limited has scheduled its 2026 Annual General Meeting for 7 May 2026, and set 3 March 2026 as the closing date for nominations from individuals seeking election as directors at that meeting. The timetable signals the start of Helia’s formal governance and board renewal process for the year, giving investors and potential nominees clear visibility on key dates and supporting orderly engagement around the company’s oversight and strategic direction.

The company’s confirmation that a detailed Notice of Meeting will be lodged with the ASX closer to the AGM date indicates that further information on resolutions, board composition and any proposed changes to governance will follow. This structured approach aligns with Helia’s role as a major ASX 200 financial services issuer, and provides institutional and retail shareholders with a predictable framework for participating in corporate decision-making.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HLI) stock is a Buy with a A$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd stock, see the AU:HLI Stock Forecast page.

Helia Sets Date for Full-Year 2025 Results and Investor Briefing
Jan 29, 2026

Helia Group Limited has announced that it will release its financial results for the full year ended 31 December 2025 to the Australian Securities Exchange before the market opens on 25 February 2026. The company will host a conference call and webcast at 10:00am Sydney time the same day to brief analysts, investors and media on the results, with an archived webcast to be made available on its investor website, signalling active engagement with the investment community ahead of its annual financial disclosure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HLI) stock is a Buy with a A$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd stock, see the AU:HLI Stock Forecast page.

Helia Group Finalises $79m On-Market Share Buy-Back
Jan 1, 2026

Helia Group Limited has completed its on-market share buy-back program, acquiring a total of 19,266,782 ordinary fully paid shares for approximately AUD 79.25 million. The conclusion of this buy-back, first notified in May 2024 and now confirmed as final, reflects the company’s continued focus on capital management and may enhance earnings per share and capital efficiency for remaining shareholders, potentially strengthening its positioning in the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:HLI) stock is a Buy with a A$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Ltd stock, see the AU:HLI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 26, 2026