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Greenvale Mining Ltd. (AU:GRV)
ASX:GRV

Greenvale Mining (GRV) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:GRV

Greenvale Mining

(Sydney:GRV)

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Neutral 48 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.04
▼(-12.50% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/11/26
The score is primarily supported by improved FY2025 cash flow and a stronger, debt-free balance sheet, but is held back by continued unprofitability and weak technical trend signals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation is also constrained by losses (negative P/E) and lack of dividend data.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
A debt-free balance sheet with roughly 9.9M equity against ~10.2M in assets materially lowers refinancing and interest risk. This structural strength gives management durable flexibility to fund exploration, cover near-term needs, and withstand industry cycles without immediate external borrowing.
Improved cash generation
The move to positive operating and free cash flow in FY2025 signals improved cash conversion and operational control. If maintained, it reduces dependence on external financing, enables internal funding for activity, and increases resilience to commodity or funding shocks compared with prior multi-year cash burn.
Lean operating structure
An extremely small workforce implies a low fixed-cost base and nimble management structure. For an explorer/producer, this lean model extends runway, limits overhead-drain on scarce cash, and allows rapid reallocation of capital toward drilling or commercialization without large recurring staffing costs.
Negative Factors
Persistent unprofitability
The company remains loss-making with negative EBIT and net income; FY2025 ROE near -14% and deeply negative margins constrain internal reinvestment. Persistent losses force reliance on cash reserves or financing, limit strategic optionality, and mean the business model has not yet converted resources into sustainable earnings.
Very limited revenue scale
Reported revenue of ~0.45M is small relative to the cost base and prior years' inactivity, limiting economies of scale and making margins highly sensitive to single projects. Durable profitability will require sustained revenue growth and successful commercialization of reserves or new production streams.
Cash-flow volatility risk
FY2025's positive cash flow follows multiple years of significant cash burn, indicating volatility. If positive cash generation is not sustained, the company may again need dilutive equity or external financing, reintroducing refinancing risk and undermining the recent improvement in financial flexibility.

Greenvale Mining (GRV) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Greenvale Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGreenvale Mining Ltd. (GRV) is an Australian-based resources company primarily engaged in the exploration and development of mineral and energy projects. The company focuses on the extraction and commercialization of oil shale and other energy resources, with a commitment to sustainable and environmentally responsible practices. Greenvale Mining's core operations are centered around the Alpha Torbanite Project, which aims to develop one of the largest deposits of torbanite, a type of oil shale, in the world.
How the Company Makes Moneynull

Greenvale Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Balance sheet strength (zero debt and sizable equity base) and a sharp FY2025 improvement to positive operating and free cash flow support the score, but it is capped by a still-weak income statement with ongoing losses, negative margins, and negative ROE.
Income Statement
22
Negative
The company remains loss-making, with negative EBIT and net income across the full period provided. FY2025 shows a return to modest revenue (about 0.45M) versus zero revenue in prior years, but profitability is still deeply negative (net margin around -305%), indicating the cost base is far above current revenue. Losses have improved from the very large FY2022 result, but earnings are not yet stable or sustainably trending positive.
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
The balance sheet is a relative strength: FY2025 shows zero debt and a sizable equity base (~9.9M) against ~10.2M in assets, providing financial flexibility. Leverage has come down meaningfully from FY2023–FY2024 (when debt-to-equity was ~0.32–0.37) to zero, reducing refinancing risk. The key weakness is continued negative returns on equity (FY2025 ROE about -14%), reflecting ongoing losses despite a solid capital base.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Cash generation improved sharply in FY2025, with positive operating cash flow (~0.91M) and positive free cash flow (~0.89M) following multiple years of cash burn (notably large negative free cash flow in FY2022–FY2024). Cash flow coverage versus net income is strong in FY2025 (cash flow positive while net income is negative), suggesting effective working-capital or non-cash addbacks supporting cash. The main risk is volatility: prior years show consistently negative operating and free cash flow, so the sustainability of FY2025’s turnaround remains unproven.
BreakdownTTMJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue0.00449.55K0.000.000.000.00
Gross Profit-14.01K449.55K-93.51K-57.49K-48.00K0.00
EBITDA-1.84M-953.49K-3.21M-3.36M-7.25M-2.19M
Net Income-1.84M-1.37M-2.98M-3.77M-7.25M-2.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets11.34M10.16M11.49M14.58M13.61M13.58M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.78M2.12M1.52M5.16M4.34M9.85M
Total Debt0.000.002.63M3.83M101.95K0.00
Total Liabilities281.21K266.59K3.21M4.17M884.71K308.91K
Stockholders Equity11.06M9.89M8.28M10.41M12.73M13.27M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow248.19K888.88K-3.66M-4.56M-6.40M-3.03M
Operating Cash Flow248.19K912.00K-634.97K-1.14M-1.25M-1.32M
Investing Cash Flow-2.56M-117.32K-3.00M-3.47M-5.25M11.95K
Financing Cash Flow3.65M-200.00K0.005.43M992.12K11.07M

Greenvale Mining Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.04
Price Trends
50DMA
0.04
Negative
100DMA
0.04
Negative
200DMA
0.04
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Negative
RSI
44.16
Neutral
STOCH
44.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:GRV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.03, above the 50-day MA of 0.04, and below the 200-day MA of 0.04, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:GRV.

Greenvale Mining Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
59
Neutral
AU$13.56M-12.50-8.22%-7.30%
57
Neutral
AU$117.15M-9.18-28.29%30.77%
52
Neutral
AU$28.77M3.4930.01%-22.76%
50
Neutral
AU$23.25M-0.99-69.46%4.41%-49.06%
48
Neutral
AU$19.56M-6.33-17.60%58.82%
44
Neutral
AU$33.70M-16.47-5.16%20.00%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:GRV
Greenvale Mining
0.03
-0.03
-45.90%
AU:ADX
ADX Energy
0.03
<0.01
18.18%
AU:OEL
Otto Energy Limited
0.01
<0.01
30.00%
AU:HHR
Hartshead Resources NL
0.01
>-0.01
-7.69%
AU:ROG
Red Sky Energy Limited
AU:EMP
Emperor Energy Ltd
0.12
0.09
300.00%

Greenvale Mining Corporate Events

Greenvale advances Alpha Project bulk sample program toward product certification
Mar 6, 2026

Greenvale Energy has updated the market on progress at its Alpha Project, confirming that Test Program 7 Milestone 3, focused on bulk sample production, is advancing as planned with six of nine contracted pressure leach runs completed. The program is designed to generate a bituminous product that can be independently certified to C-170 specification, underpinning the project’s future commercial positioning.

The Monash University processing team is conducting roughly one production run per week and may extend the bulk sample phase beyond the initial scope, while process reviews have led to equipment and operating refinements delivering about 99 wt% conversion of torbanite and an average 32 wt% toluene-soluble yield. Initial samples have already been dispatched to Technix for product characterisation and preliminary testing, marking a key step toward product certification and de-risking the Alpha Project’s path to market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.04 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenvale Mining stock, see the AU:GRV Stock Forecast page.

Greenvale Energy Director Updates Holdings After Exercising Performance Rights
Feb 27, 2026

Greenvale Energy has disclosed a change in director Elias (Leo) Khouri’s interests following the exercise of vested performance rights. Khouri exercised 1,500,000 Class 7 performance rights to a nominee under the company’s Performance Rights and Options Plan, reducing his direct holding of these rights to 1,500,000 while leaving his substantial indirect ordinary shareholdings unchanged.

The transaction reflects routine incentive-plan activity rather than on-market trading, and does not alter the overall number of ordinary shares held through Khouri’s associated entities. The notice provides transparency on board-level equity movements, offering shareholders visibility over director alignment with the company’s equity-based remuneration framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.04 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenvale Mining stock, see the AU:GRV Stock Forecast page.

Greenvale Energy Issues 4.5 Million Shares on Exercise of Performance Rights
Feb 27, 2026

Greenvale Energy has issued 4.5 million fully paid ordinary shares following the exercise of vested performance rights, expanding its share capital base. The company confirmed the shares were issued without a prospectus under the Corporations Act disclosure exemptions and stated it remains compliant with its financial reporting and continuous disclosure obligations, with no undisclosed price-sensitive information identified, offering reassurance to existing and prospective investors about governance and transparency.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.04 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenvale Mining stock, see the AU:GRV Stock Forecast page.

Greenvale expands Douglas River uranium footprint with new licence and targets
Feb 26, 2026

Greenvale Energy has secured a six-year exploration licence, EL34157, for its Douglas River Uranium Project in the Northern Territory, adjoining its existing tenure in a region hosting known uranium resources. The project sits within the polymetallic Pine Creek Orogen and associated basins, positioning the company in a recognised uranium province and reinforcing its strategic push into the sector.

The company has also completed a project-wide interpretation of Sentinel-2 multispectral data, identifying four large priority targets that coincide with radiometric, gas and structural anomalies analogous to nearby unconformity-related uranium deposits such as Thunderball. With land access preparations under way and initial stakeholder meetings scheduled for March 2026, Greenvale is preparing for an active field season that could materially advance the Douglas River project’s exploration prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.04 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenvale Mining stock, see the AU:GRV Stock Forecast page.

Greenvale Energy Seeks ASX Quotation for 4.5 Million New Shares
Feb 24, 2026

Greenvale Energy Ltd has applied for quotation on the ASX of 4,500,000 new ordinary fully paid shares, to be traded under its existing ticker GRV. The securities, issued on 24 February 2026 through the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible instruments, will expand the company’s quoted share base and modestly increase its free float for investors.

The move reflects ongoing utilisation of equity-linked incentives or funding structures and signals incremental capital formation without detailing any specific associated project or transaction. For shareholders, the additional quoted securities imply a small dilution of existing holdings but potentially improved liquidity, while reaffirming Greenvale’s adherence to ASX listing processes and disclosure requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.03 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenvale Mining stock, see the AU:GRV Stock Forecast page.

Greenvale Advances Alpha Torbanite Test Program With Bulk Sample Production on Track
Feb 22, 2026

Greenvale Energy reports steady progress on Test Program 7 at its Alpha Torbanite Project, where the key objective is to produce a bituminous product suitable for independent certification to C-170 commercial standards. The company has completed six of nine planned bulk pressure leach production runs with Monash University, achieving about 99% torbanite conversion and an average 32% toluene-soluble yield, and early samples have already been dispatched to Technix in New Zealand for product characterisation.

Process reviews during the initial runs have led to optimisation of mechanical equipment, peak temperature and reaction retention times, with current operating conditions delivering consistent temperature and pressure profiles. Greenvale is also in talks with Monash about potentially extending the bulk sample phase, indicating confidence in the program and underscoring the importance of generating sufficient certified product to support future commercialisation and strengthen the company’s position in emerging bituminous materials markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.03 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenvale Mining stock, see the AU:GRV Stock Forecast page.

Greenvale flags stronger regional uranium discovery potential at Oasis project
Feb 11, 2026

Greenvale Energy has boosted the exploration potential of its Oasis Uranium Project in Queensland after analysing regional Sentinel-2 multi-spectral imagery, which revealed multiple helium, radon and chlorite anomalies associated with uranium. These anomalies correlate with earlier magnetic, radiometric and surface geochemical data and align with key structural intersections, reinforcing confidence in nine priority targets and identifying seven additional areas of interest.

The company says the combined structural, radiometric, geochemical and multi-spectral signals resemble those seen at the existing Oasis deposit, suggesting strong potential for further intrusive-related uranium discoveries within EPM 27565 and the surrounding region. Permitting notices have been lodged to begin the next phase of fieldwork in 2026, with an immediate focus on ground-truthing these targets to potentially expand project scale and underpin a maiden Mineral Resource Estimate at Oasis.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.04 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenvale Mining stock, see the AU:GRV Stock Forecast page.

Greenvale Energy Sharpens Uranium Exploration Strategy Amid Nuclear Power Revival
Feb 2, 2026

Greenvale Energy has outlined its strategy as a uranium-focused explorer seeking to capitalise on surging global demand for nuclear fuel, driven by data centre power needs, automotive electrification and the broader low-carbon energy transition. The company is positioning itself for growth through focused exploration activities, strategic acquisitions and an experienced management team with a track record of major discoveries and mine development in tier-one jurisdictions, aiming to deliver outsized shareholder returns as the nuclear sector experiences a renewed renaissance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.04 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenvale Mining stock, see the AU:GRV Stock Forecast page.

Greenvale Energy Advances Oasis Uranium Project and Strengthens Balance Sheet in December Quarter
Jan 27, 2026

Greenvale Energy’s December quarter activities advanced its uranium-focused growth strategy, led by strong drilling results at the 100%-owned Oasis Uranium Project in Queensland. High-grade chemical assays confirmed consistent uranium mineralisation, expanded the geological model, and indicated that the system remains open along strike and at depth, with evidence of a possible second mineralised structure and additional near-surface extensions that collectively enhance the project’s scale potential. The company also progressed Test Program 7 at the Alpha Torbanite Project by commissioning specialist processing equipment and commencing bulk sample production, entered a farm-in and joint venture with a Sunrise Energy Metals subsidiary to realise value from its Millungera Basin geothermal asset via up to A$5 million in partner-funded expenditure, and strengthened its balance sheet with approximately A$1.9 million raised through a placement and oversubscribed share purchase plan, providing funding for its 2026 uranium exploration pipeline and supporting a value-focused start to the year.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.04 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenvale Mining stock, see the AU:GRV Stock Forecast page.

Greenvale Energy Issues 21.6 Million Unquoted Options to Support Capital Structure
Jan 21, 2026

Greenvale Energy Ltd has notified the market of the issue of 21,556,122 unquoted options with an exercise price of $0.07 and an expiry date of 30 November 2026. The large tranche of new options expands the company’s unquoted equity pool, potentially aligning stakeholders through future equity participation while signalling ongoing capital management and incentive structuring as Greenvale advances its energy projects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.04 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenvale Mining stock, see the AU:GRV Stock Forecast page.

Greenvale Energy Shareholders Back All Resolutions at General Meeting
Jan 19, 2026

Greenvale Energy Limited has reported that all resolutions put to shareholders at its 19 January 2026 general meeting were passed by poll with strong levels of support. The approved motions include ratification of a prior placement, the issuance of placement options, and the issuance of share purchase plan (SPP) options, including specific SPP allocations to directors Neil Biddle and Mr Elias, effectively endorsing the company’s recent capital-raising initiatives and associated securities issuances. The outcome strengthens Greenvale’s funding position to advance its uranium, geothermal and other exploration projects, signalling solid shareholder backing for its current growth and capital management strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.04 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenvale Mining stock, see the AU:GRV Stock Forecast page.

Greenvale Energy Calls January 2026 Meeting to Ratify Share Placement and Approve New Options
Jan 12, 2026

Greenvale Energy Limited has called a general meeting for 19 January 2026 in Brisbane, where shareholders will vote on several capital management resolutions tied to recent and proposed equity raisings. The agenda includes ratification of 23,659,091 placement shares already issued, approval for the issue of 11,829,545 placement options exercisable at $0.07 and expiring on 30 November 2026 to placement subscribers, and approval for the issue of 8,703,350 options on the same terms to participants in a security purchase plan, along with a separate resolution for issuing SPP options to director Neil Biddle. The outcome of these resolutions will formalise and expand Greenvale’s capital base, potentially strengthening its balance sheet, aligning director incentives with shareholders and giving the company additional flexibility to fund its strategic and operational objectives within ASX listing rule constraints.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.04 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenvale Mining stock, see the AU:GRV Stock Forecast page.

Greenvale Energy Wraps Up First Uranium Field Season with Promising Results
Dec 17, 2025

Greenvale Energy Limited has concluded its first uranium exploration field season at the Oasis Uranium Project with promising results, confirming significant mineralized extensions and strong high-grade uranium zones. These outcomes set the stage for an expanded exploration program in 2026, including regional target development and potential further discoveries, reinforcing Greenvale’s positioning in the uranium industry and its commitment to resource growth.

Greenvale Energy Advances Alpha Torbanite Project with Successful Milestones
Dec 15, 2025

Greenvale Energy Limited has successfully achieved the first two milestones of Test Program 7 for its Alpha Torbanite Project, marking significant progress in its mineral processing efforts. The company has commenced bulk sample production, aiming to produce a bituminous product certified to C-170 asphalt specification, which is expected to unlock significant value for shareholders.

Greenvale Energy Announces General Meeting to Discuss Key Resolutions
Dec 14, 2025

Greenvale Energy Limited has announced a General Meeting scheduled for January 19, 2026, in Brisbane. The meeting will address several resolutions, including the ratification and approval of the issuance of Placement Shares, Placement Options, and Security Purchase Plan (SPP) Options. These resolutions are significant for shareholders as they involve decisions on share and option issuances that could impact the company’s financial strategy and shareholder value.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 11, 2026