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Greenvale Mining Ltd. (AU:GRV)
ASX:GRV

Greenvale Mining (GRV) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:GRV

Greenvale Mining

(Sydney:GRV)

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Neutral 48 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.04
▼(-12.50% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
The score is held back primarily by ongoing losses (despite improvement) and weak technical trend signals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting these, the balance sheet is stronger with zero debt and FY2025 shows a notable turnaround to positive operating and free cash flow, which supports a mid-range result.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
Zero net debt and a meaningful equity base materially improve financial flexibility and reduce refinancing risk. For a capital-intensive E&P firm this durable strength supports continued exploration or small-scale development spending, partner negotiations, and resilience through commodity cycles.
Cash flow turnaround
A shift to positive operating and free cash flow demonstrates an ability to convert activity into internal liquidity, lowering reliance on external funding. Sustained cash generation is a long-term lever for funding projects, covering costs, and shoring up working capital in a cyclical sector.
Resumption of revenue
Restarting revenue signals operational progress from exploration to monetization phases. Even modest recurring sales can underpin scalability and margin improvements over time if the company controls costs and converts activity into higher, stable production or recurring contracts.
Negative Factors
Persistent losses
Negative EBIT and net losses indicate the business still consumes capital rather than generates returns; large negative margins (~-305% in FY2025) show the cost base far exceeds current revenues. Continued losses threaten long-term viability without sustained margin recovery.
Negative returns on equity
A negative ROE signals that shareholders' equity is not producing value and could deter capital providers. Persistently negative returns make equity raises dilutive, constrain growth funding, and pressure management to either materially lift returns or restructure capital deployment.
Volatile historical cash flows
FY2025’s cash flow improvement follows multiple years of cash burn, indicating volatility in liquidity generation. In an E&P context, such swings increase funding risk for development cycles and expose the company to adverse commodity or capex timing, making cash durability uncertain.

Greenvale Mining (GRV) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Greenvale Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGreenvale Mining Ltd. (GRV) is an Australian-based resources company primarily engaged in the exploration and development of mineral and energy projects. The company focuses on the extraction and commercialization of oil shale and other energy resources, with a commitment to sustainable and environmentally responsible practices. Greenvale Mining's core operations are centered around the Alpha Torbanite Project, which aims to develop one of the largest deposits of torbanite, a type of oil shale, in the world.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreenvale Mining Ltd. generates revenue primarily through the exploration, extraction, and sale of oil shale and its derivatives. Key revenue streams include the sale of raw materials extracted from their mining operations and potential future income from the production of synthetic crude oil. The company's earnings are significantly influenced by the global demand for energy resources, market prices for oil and associated products, and successful development and commercialization of their projects. Strategic partnerships with technology providers and energy companies may also play a role in enhancing operational efficiency and expanding market reach.

Greenvale Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Balance sheet strength (zero debt and a solid equity base) and a FY2025 swing to positive operating/free cash flow support the score, but the company remains loss-making with negative EBIT/net income and negative ROE, keeping overall financial performance moderate.
Income Statement
22
Negative
The company remains loss-making, with negative EBIT and net income across the full period provided. FY2025 shows a return to modest revenue (about 0.45M) versus zero revenue in prior years, but profitability is still deeply negative (net margin around -305%), indicating the cost base is far above current revenue. Losses have improved from the very large FY2022 result, but earnings are not yet stable or sustainably trending positive.
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
The balance sheet is a relative strength: FY2025 shows zero debt and a sizable equity base (~9.9M) against ~10.2M in assets, providing financial flexibility. Leverage has come down meaningfully from FY2023–FY2024 (when debt-to-equity was ~0.32–0.37) to zero, reducing refinancing risk. The key weakness is continued negative returns on equity (FY2025 ROE about -14%), reflecting ongoing losses despite a solid capital base.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Cash generation improved sharply in FY2025, with positive operating cash flow (~0.91M) and positive free cash flow (~0.89M) following multiple years of cash burn (notably large negative free cash flow in FY2022–FY2024). Cash flow coverage versus net income is strong in FY2025 (cash flow positive while net income is negative), suggesting effective working-capital or non-cash addbacks supporting cash. The main risk is volatility: prior years show consistently negative operating and free cash flow, so the sustainability of FY2025’s turnaround remains unproven.
BreakdownJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue449.55K0.000.000.000.00
Gross Profit449.55K-93.51K-57.49K-48.00K0.00
EBITDA-953.49K-3.21M-3.36M-7.25M-2.19M
Net Income-1.37M-2.98M-3.77M-7.25M-2.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets10.16M11.49M14.58M13.61M13.58M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.12M1.52M5.16M4.34M9.85M
Total Debt0.002.63M3.83M101.95K0.00
Total Liabilities266.59K3.21M4.17M884.71K308.91K
Stockholders Equity9.89M8.28M10.41M12.73M13.27M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow888.88K-3.66M-4.56M-6.40M-3.03M
Operating Cash Flow912.00K-634.97K-1.14M-1.25M-1.32M
Investing Cash Flow-117.32K-3.00M-3.47M-5.25M11.95K
Financing Cash Flow-200.00K0.005.43M992.12K11.07M

Greenvale Mining Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.04
Price Trends
50DMA
0.04
Negative
100DMA
0.04
Negative
200DMA
0.05
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Positive
RSI
45.25
Neutral
STOCH
45.83
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:GRV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.04, above the 50-day MA of 0.04, and below the 200-day MA of 0.05, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:GRV.

Greenvale Mining Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
59
Neutral
AU$10.84M-8.36%-7.30%
57
Neutral
AU$112.11M-75.00-13.64%30.77%
52
Neutral
AU$21.58M43.332.14%-22.76%
50
Neutral
AU$22.67M-1.96-59.58%4.41%-49.06%
48
Neutral
AU$21.34M-12.86-14.62%58.82%
44
Neutral
AU$39.32M-17.50-6.62%20.00%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:GRV
Greenvale Mining
0.04
-0.04
-52.63%
AU:ADX
ADX Energy
0.03
<0.01
34.78%
AU:OEL
Otto Energy Limited
0.01
<0.01
18.18%
AU:HHR
Hartshead Resources NL
0.01
<0.01
7.69%
AU:ROG
Red Sky Energy Limited
AU:EMP
Emperor Energy Ltd
0.14
0.10
297.06%

Greenvale Mining Corporate Events

Greenvale Energy Seeks ASX Quotation for 4.5 Million New Shares
Feb 24, 2026

Greenvale Energy Ltd has applied for quotation on the ASX of 4,500,000 new ordinary fully paid shares, to be traded under its existing ticker GRV. The securities, issued on 24 February 2026 through the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible instruments, will expand the company’s quoted share base and modestly increase its free float for investors.

The move reflects ongoing utilisation of equity-linked incentives or funding structures and signals incremental capital formation without detailing any specific associated project or transaction. For shareholders, the additional quoted securities imply a small dilution of existing holdings but potentially improved liquidity, while reaffirming Greenvale’s adherence to ASX listing processes and disclosure requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.03 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenvale Mining stock, see the AU:GRV Stock Forecast page.

Greenvale Advances Alpha Torbanite Test Program With Bulk Sample Production on Track
Feb 22, 2026

Greenvale Energy reports steady progress on Test Program 7 at its Alpha Torbanite Project, where the key objective is to produce a bituminous product suitable for independent certification to C-170 commercial standards. The company has completed six of nine planned bulk pressure leach production runs with Monash University, achieving about 99% torbanite conversion and an average 32% toluene-soluble yield, and early samples have already been dispatched to Technix in New Zealand for product characterisation.

Process reviews during the initial runs have led to optimisation of mechanical equipment, peak temperature and reaction retention times, with current operating conditions delivering consistent temperature and pressure profiles. Greenvale is also in talks with Monash about potentially extending the bulk sample phase, indicating confidence in the program and underscoring the importance of generating sufficient certified product to support future commercialisation and strengthen the company’s position in emerging bituminous materials markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.03 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenvale Mining stock, see the AU:GRV Stock Forecast page.

Greenvale flags stronger regional uranium discovery potential at Oasis project
Feb 11, 2026

Greenvale Energy has boosted the exploration potential of its Oasis Uranium Project in Queensland after analysing regional Sentinel-2 multi-spectral imagery, which revealed multiple helium, radon and chlorite anomalies associated with uranium. These anomalies correlate with earlier magnetic, radiometric and surface geochemical data and align with key structural intersections, reinforcing confidence in nine priority targets and identifying seven additional areas of interest.

The company says the combined structural, radiometric, geochemical and multi-spectral signals resemble those seen at the existing Oasis deposit, suggesting strong potential for further intrusive-related uranium discoveries within EPM 27565 and the surrounding region. Permitting notices have been lodged to begin the next phase of fieldwork in 2026, with an immediate focus on ground-truthing these targets to potentially expand project scale and underpin a maiden Mineral Resource Estimate at Oasis.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.04 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenvale Mining stock, see the AU:GRV Stock Forecast page.

Greenvale Energy Sharpens Uranium Exploration Strategy Amid Nuclear Power Revival
Feb 2, 2026

Greenvale Energy has outlined its strategy as a uranium-focused explorer seeking to capitalise on surging global demand for nuclear fuel, driven by data centre power needs, automotive electrification and the broader low-carbon energy transition. The company is positioning itself for growth through focused exploration activities, strategic acquisitions and an experienced management team with a track record of major discoveries and mine development in tier-one jurisdictions, aiming to deliver outsized shareholder returns as the nuclear sector experiences a renewed renaissance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.04 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenvale Mining stock, see the AU:GRV Stock Forecast page.

Greenvale Energy Advances Oasis Uranium Project and Strengthens Balance Sheet in December Quarter
Jan 27, 2026

Greenvale Energy’s December quarter activities advanced its uranium-focused growth strategy, led by strong drilling results at the 100%-owned Oasis Uranium Project in Queensland. High-grade chemical assays confirmed consistent uranium mineralisation, expanded the geological model, and indicated that the system remains open along strike and at depth, with evidence of a possible second mineralised structure and additional near-surface extensions that collectively enhance the project’s scale potential. The company also progressed Test Program 7 at the Alpha Torbanite Project by commissioning specialist processing equipment and commencing bulk sample production, entered a farm-in and joint venture with a Sunrise Energy Metals subsidiary to realise value from its Millungera Basin geothermal asset via up to A$5 million in partner-funded expenditure, and strengthened its balance sheet with approximately A$1.9 million raised through a placement and oversubscribed share purchase plan, providing funding for its 2026 uranium exploration pipeline and supporting a value-focused start to the year.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.04 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenvale Mining stock, see the AU:GRV Stock Forecast page.

Greenvale Energy Issues 21.6 Million Unquoted Options to Support Capital Structure
Jan 21, 2026

Greenvale Energy Ltd has notified the market of the issue of 21,556,122 unquoted options with an exercise price of $0.07 and an expiry date of 30 November 2026. The large tranche of new options expands the company’s unquoted equity pool, potentially aligning stakeholders through future equity participation while signalling ongoing capital management and incentive structuring as Greenvale advances its energy projects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.04 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenvale Mining stock, see the AU:GRV Stock Forecast page.

Greenvale Energy Shareholders Back All Resolutions at General Meeting
Jan 19, 2026

Greenvale Energy Limited has reported that all resolutions put to shareholders at its 19 January 2026 general meeting were passed by poll with strong levels of support. The approved motions include ratification of a prior placement, the issuance of placement options, and the issuance of share purchase plan (SPP) options, including specific SPP allocations to directors Neil Biddle and Mr Elias, effectively endorsing the company’s recent capital-raising initiatives and associated securities issuances. The outcome strengthens Greenvale’s funding position to advance its uranium, geothermal and other exploration projects, signalling solid shareholder backing for its current growth and capital management strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.04 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenvale Mining stock, see the AU:GRV Stock Forecast page.

Greenvale Energy Calls January 2026 Meeting to Ratify Share Placement and Approve New Options
Jan 12, 2026

Greenvale Energy Limited has called a general meeting for 19 January 2026 in Brisbane, where shareholders will vote on several capital management resolutions tied to recent and proposed equity raisings. The agenda includes ratification of 23,659,091 placement shares already issued, approval for the issue of 11,829,545 placement options exercisable at $0.07 and expiring on 30 November 2026 to placement subscribers, and approval for the issue of 8,703,350 options on the same terms to participants in a security purchase plan, along with a separate resolution for issuing SPP options to director Neil Biddle. The outcome of these resolutions will formalise and expand Greenvale’s capital base, potentially strengthening its balance sheet, aligning director incentives with shareholders and giving the company additional flexibility to fund its strategic and operational objectives within ASX listing rule constraints.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GRV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.04 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenvale Mining stock, see the AU:GRV Stock Forecast page.

Greenvale Energy Wraps Up First Uranium Field Season with Promising Results
Dec 17, 2025

Greenvale Energy Limited has concluded its first uranium exploration field season at the Oasis Uranium Project with promising results, confirming significant mineralized extensions and strong high-grade uranium zones. These outcomes set the stage for an expanded exploration program in 2026, including regional target development and potential further discoveries, reinforcing Greenvale’s positioning in the uranium industry and its commitment to resource growth.

Greenvale Energy Advances Alpha Torbanite Project with Successful Milestones
Dec 15, 2025

Greenvale Energy Limited has successfully achieved the first two milestones of Test Program 7 for its Alpha Torbanite Project, marking significant progress in its mineral processing efforts. The company has commenced bulk sample production, aiming to produce a bituminous product certified to C-170 asphalt specification, which is expected to unlock significant value for shareholders.

Greenvale Energy Announces General Meeting to Discuss Key Resolutions
Dec 14, 2025

Greenvale Energy Limited has announced a General Meeting scheduled for January 19, 2026, in Brisbane. The meeting will address several resolutions, including the ratification and approval of the issuance of Placement Shares, Placement Options, and Security Purchase Plan (SPP) Options. These resolutions are significant for shareholders as they involve decisions on share and option issuances that could impact the company’s financial strategy and shareholder value.

Greenvale Energy Director Increases Stake via Share Purchase Plan
Dec 8, 2025

Greenvale Energy Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically involving Neil Biddle, who increased his holdings in the company through participation in a Share Purchase Plan (SPP). This change reflects an acquisition of 681,818 ordinary shares each in two entities, Biddle Superannuation Fund and Biddle Family Trust, at a price of 0.044 per share. This move indicates a potential strategic alignment or confidence in the company’s future prospects, which could influence stakeholder perceptions and market positioning.

Greenvale Energy Director Increases Stake in Company
Dec 8, 2025

Greenvale Energy Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, with Elias Khouri acquiring 681,818 ordinary shares through a share purchase plan. This acquisition increases Khouri’s indirect holdings, potentially strengthening his influence within the company and signaling confidence in Greenvale’s strategic direction.

Greenvale Energy Issues 2 Million Performance Rights
Dec 8, 2025

Greenvale Energy Ltd has announced the issuance of 2,000,000 unquoted performance rights, with a vesting condition of $0.15 and an expiry of three years from the issue date. This strategic move is likely to impact the company’s operational dynamics by potentially increasing employee motivation and aligning their interests with the company’s long-term goals, thereby strengthening its position in the energy sector.

Greenvale Energy Expands Capital Through Share Issuance
Dec 4, 2025

Greenvale Energy Limited has announced the issuance of 19,452,153 fully paid ordinary shares through a Security Placement Plan. This move, executed without the need for investor disclosure under the Corporations Act, signifies the company’s compliance with relevant legal provisions and its strategic efforts to bolster its financial position. The issuance is expected to impact the company’s operations by potentially increasing its capital base, thereby enhancing its capacity to pursue growth opportunities.

Greenvale Energy Ltd Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
Dec 3, 2025

Greenvale Energy Ltd has announced the application for quotation of 19,453,153 fully paid ordinary securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) under the code GRV. This move is part of a previously announced transaction and is expected to enhance the company’s market presence and liquidity, potentially benefiting stakeholders by increasing the company’s capital base and supporting its growth initiatives.

Greenvale Energy’s Share Purchase Plan Closing Soon
Nov 26, 2025

Greenvale Energy Limited has announced the closing of its Share Purchase Plan (SPP) on 27 November 2025, offering eligible shareholders the chance to purchase shares at a fixed price with additional options. This initiative is part of Greenvale’s strategy to enhance shareholder value and support its exploration and growth objectives. The participation of all eligible directors and management in the SPP underscores the company’s commitment to its strategic goals.

Greenvale Energy Partners with SRL Hot Rocks for Geothermal Development
Nov 25, 2025

Greenvale Energy Limited has entered into a Farm-in Agreement with SRL Hot Rocks Pty Ltd, a subsidiary of Sunrise Energy Metals, to develop the Millungera Basin Geothermal Project. This agreement allows SRL-HR to fund exploration and development up to $5 million to earn a majority interest, enabling Greenvale to focus on its uranium portfolio while advancing its geothermal assets. The project, located in a geologically promising area for geothermal energy, has the potential to significantly contribute to Australia’s clean energy supply. With exploration permits granted and access agreements in place, the project is poised to commence exploration activities.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 25, 2026