GQG Partners, Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 1 Sh (GQG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$4.87B
• Dividend Yield: 10.91%
• Average Volume (3M): 8.66M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.91
• Revenue Growth: 25.96%
• EPS Growth: 32.30%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 236
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.11
• Shares Outstanding: 2,958,001,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,983,372
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,657,266
• PEG Ratio: 1.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.69
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.38
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.12
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$1.95
• Price Target Upside: 18.90% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.15
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$794.96M

• Rating: 86 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$2.00 ▲(21.95% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins, low leverage, and excellent cash-flow quality) and attractive valuation (low P/E with a high dividend yield). Technicals add support through a positive trend and healthy momentum, while the main risk is revenue volatility highlighted by the 2025 top-line contraction.

Positive Factors

Cash-flow quality

Operating and free cash flow closely track reported earnings (FCF/net income ~0.99–1.00) and cash coverage of debt is very high (~14x). This durable cash conversion supports dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment capacity, underpinning resilience through market cycles.

Conservative balance sheet

Low leverage and a modest absolute debt load provide strong financial flexibility and lower refinancing risk. That conservative capital structure allows continued capital returns or opportunistic investments without stressing solvency during market drawdowns, improving long-term stability.

Fee-based model and high margins

Recurring management fees tied to AUM combined with very high net margins (mid-50% to mid-70%) give structural operating leverage. Durable fee income and strong profitability enable sustained free cash generation and efficient scaling as AUM grows, supporting long-term returns.

Negative Factors

Revenue volatility

A 44% revenue drop in 2025 demonstrates meaningful top-line volatility for an AUM-driven manager. Large swings in revenue reduce predictability of fee income and can compress margins or cash generation during prolonged market weakness or adverse client flows, stressing earnings durability.

Earnings sensitivity to small equity base

Exceptionally high returns on equity reflect strong profitability but also a relatively small equity base. That structure magnifies the effect of modest earnings changes on return metrics and can lead to volatile reported performance, complicating capital planning and perceived stability.

AUM-dependent revenue concentration

Revenue concentration in AUM-linked management fees ties firm economics directly to market performance and net flows. Sustained market downturns or client redemptions can materially reduce fee revenue over months, making top-line and cash generation vulnerable to structural market shifts.

GQG Partners, Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 1 Sh Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GQG Partners Inc. operates as a boutique asset management company. It manages equity portfolios for investors, including insurance funds, pension/superannuation funds, sovereign wealth funds, ultra-high net worth investors, sub-advised funds, financial advisers, wealth management administration platforms, private banks, and other discretionary wealth managers. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. GQG Partners Inc. is a subsidiary of QVFT LLC.

How the Company Makes Money

GQG Partners, Inc. generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance fees. Management fees are typically a percentage of the assets under management (AUM) and are charged to clients for the firm's investment management services. Performance fees may also be earned when the firm's investment strategies outperform certain benchmarks or achieve specific performance targets. Additionally, the company's earnings are influenced by factors such as market conditions, client inflows and outflows, and the performance of their investment strategies. GQG Partners may also benefit from strategic partnerships and collaborations that enhance their investment offerings and client reach.

GQG Partners, Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 1 Sh Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals supported by exceptional profitability, conservative leverage, and very high-quality cash generation. The key offset is top-line volatility, highlighted by the sharp 2025 revenue decline (-44%), which adds uncertainty around earnings durability.

Income Statement

Profitability is a clear strength: net profit margins have remained very high (roughly mid-50% to mid-70% historically, ~59% in 2025), supported by strong operating margins. Revenue scaled rapidly from 2020–2024, but 2025 shows a sharp revenue decline (-44%), which raises questions around earnings durability despite profits still holding up. Overall: excellent margins, but growth volatility is the key risk.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservative with low leverage (debt-to-equity ~3%–6% from 2022–2025) and a modest absolute debt load versus equity. Returns on equity are exceptionally high (generally ~0.76–1.05+ in recent years), signaling strong profitability relative to the capital base, though also implying results may be sensitive to changes in earnings given the relatively smaller equity base. Overall: strong financial flexibility with limited balance-sheet risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a standout: operating cash flow and free cash flow closely track net income (free cash flow to net income ~0.99–1.00 across years), indicating high earnings quality. Free cash flow growth is volatile but strong in the latest period (2025 up ~9.9), and cash flow coverage of debt is very robust (coverage ~14x in 2024–2025, even higher in 2022–2023). Overall: highly supportive cash flows with strong capacity to service obligations.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	779.29M	742.85M	517.59M	436.83M	397.94M
Gross Profit	797.38M	742.85M	424.55M	365.16M	345.05M
EBITDA	630.98M	0.00	384.80M	332.47M	323.61M
Net Income	463.25M	431.56M	282.52M	237.94M	304.87M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	493.39M	463.92M	389.50M	341.98M	375.86M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	134.87M	96.06M	64.94M	19.48M	56.79M
Total Debt	26.79M	19.46M	19.22M	10.68M	2.15M
Total Liabilities	50.29M	48.98M	39.96M	29.88M	85.08M
Stockholders Equity	444.47M	415.17M	349.54M	312.10M	290.78M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	480.05M	415.06M	294.46M	245.30M	301.43M
Operating Cash Flow	483.10M	419.18M	295.15M	245.30M	302.25M
Investing Cash Flow	-3.08M	-106.04M	-1.38M	-3.52M	-4.88M
Financing Cash Flow	-440.69M	-283.91M	-248.25M	-278.47M	-257.40M

GQG Partners, Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 1 Sh Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.64
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:GQG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.78, below the 50-day MA of 1.68, and below the 200-day MA of 1.70, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 1.79 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:GQG.

GQG Partners, Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 1 Sh Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GQG	86 Outperform	AU$4.87B	7.38	116.22%	10.91%	25.96%	32.30%
MFG	71 Outperform	AU$1.87B	6.19	16.50%	5.99%	-13.22%	-29.69%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
PNI	61 Neutral	AU$2.89B	14.10	13.61%	3.45%	37.42%	38.37%
IFL	53 Neutral	AU$3.13B	9.67	0.72%	―	-15.63%	―
PPT	50 Neutral	€1.85B	9.75	-1.00%	6.01%	2.87%	87.93%
AMP	44 Neutral	AU$3.09B	34.62	3.56%	1.65%	-14.92%	179.69%

GQG Partners, Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 1 Sh Corporate Events

GQG Partners Edges FUM Higher as Investment Gains Offset Client Outflows

GQG Partners reported total funds under management of $165.7 billion as of 31 January 2026, up from $163.9 billion a month earlier, driven by $6.0 billion in investment performance gains across its international, global, emerging markets and U.S. strategies. The firm experienced $4.2 billion in net outflows over the month, indicating continued client redemptions despite positive market performance, and signaled ongoing transparency for investors with a schedule of forthcoming monthly FUM disclosure dates.

The latest figures highlight that investment returns are offsetting investor withdrawals, helping GQG maintain modest FUM growth in a competitive active management landscape. This dynamic underscores both the resilience of the company’s investment strategies and the current pressure on active managers to retain client capital amid shifting asset allocation trends.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GQG) stock is a Hold with a A$1.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GQG Partners, Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 1 Sh stock, see the AU:GQG Stock Forecast page.

GQG Partners Sets Date for 2025 Full-Year Results and Investor Call

GQG Partners Inc. has announced it will release its full-year financial results for the period ending 31 December 2025 to the Australian Securities Exchange on 13 February 2026 and will host an accompanying investor conference call. The call, featuring senior leadership including Co-Founder and Executive Chairman Rajiv Jain, Co-Founder and CEO Tim Carver, CFO Charles Falck and Managing Director of Global Distribution Steve Ford, will be held via webcast and teleconference at 10:00am AEDT the same day, offering investors and analysts an opportunity to engage directly with management about the company’s performance and outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GQG) stock is a Buy with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GQG Partners, Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 1 Sh stock, see the AU:GQG Stock Forecast page.

GQG Partners Grows FUM to US$163.9bn Despite 2025 Net Outflows

GQG Partners reported total funds under management of US$163.9 billion as at 31 December 2025, up from US$153.0 billion a year earlier, as positive investment performance of US$14.8 billion more than offset net outflows of US$3.9 billion for the year, including US$2.1 billion in net outflows in December alone. The firm said its defensively positioned portfolios, aimed at protecting client assets amid what it views as extended valuations, weakening fundamentals and macroeconomic uncertainty, led to relative underperformance versus benchmarks across all strategies, but management emphasised that recurring management fees remain the dominant revenue source and reiterated its commitment to aligning with shareholders and clients.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GQG) stock is a Buy with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GQG Partners, Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 1 Sh stock, see the AU:GQG Stock Forecast page.

GQG Partners Sets Date and Deadlines for 2026 Annual General Meeting

GQG Partners Inc. has scheduled its 2026 Annual General Meeting for 9:00 am AEST on 15 May 2026 (7:00 pm U.S. EDT on 14 May 2026), formalising the key date for shareholder engagement and governance decisions. The company has also set 16 January 2026 as the deadline for shareholders to submit proposed business or director nominations, signalling the start of its annual governance cycle and giving investors a narrow window to influence the meeting agenda, with further details to be provided in the forthcoming Notice of Meeting.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GQG) stock is a Buy with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GQG Partners, Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 1 Sh stock, see the AU:GQG Stock Forecast page.

GQG Partners Grants Over 31 Million Unquoted Stock Units Under Employee Incentive Plan

GQG Partners Inc. has notified the market of the issue of a substantial tranche of unquoted equity securities under its employee incentive schemes, comprising 19,490,717 restricted stock units and 11,696,608 performance stock units, both with an issue date of 23 December 2025. The new awards, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, signal the firm’s ongoing use of equity-based compensation to retain and motivate staff, potentially increasing overall share-based remuneration and aligning employees’ interests more closely with those of shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GQG) stock is a Buy with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GQG Partners, Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 1 Sh stock, see the AU:GQG Stock Forecast page.

GQG Partners Reports Lapse of Equity Incentive Securities

GQG Partners Inc. has notified the cessation of several tranches of equity-based awards, including 55,253 restricted stock units and a total of 42,675 performance stock units, after the conditional rights to these securities lapsed because their vesting conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied in late 2025. The lapses modestly reduce potential future equity dilution for shareholders and signal that certain performance or service hurdles tied to these incentives were not achieved, which may prompt investor scrutiny of the company’s incentive structures and recent performance metrics.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GQG) stock is a Buy with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GQG Partners, Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 1 Sh stock, see the AU:GQG Stock Forecast page.

GQG Partners Seeks ASX Quotation for 2.7 Million Additional CDIs

GQG Partners Inc. has applied to the ASX for quotation of additional CHESS Depositary Interests, representing ordinary shares of the company, under its existing code GQG. The application covers a total of 2,710,332 new CDIs, issued on 29 October 2025 and 23 December 2025, which have arisen from the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible securities; once quoted, these securities will expand the pool of tradeable CDIs and marginally increase the company’s free float for investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GQG) stock is a Buy with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GQG Partners, Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 1 Sh stock, see the AU:GQG Stock Forecast page.

GQG Partners Sets 2026 Earnings Schedule and Dividend Timetable

GQG Partners Inc. has set out its 2026 financial reporting calendar, confirming dates for its full-year and half-year earnings releases and accompanying conference calls in February and August respectively. The firm also detailed its quarterly dividend timetable for late 2025 and 2026, specifying ex-dividend, record and payment dates for each quarter in Australian Eastern Time, providing shareholders and analysts with clear visibility on upcoming disclosures and cash distributions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GQG) stock is a Buy with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GQG Partners, Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 1 Sh stock, see the AU:GQG Stock Forecast page.

GQG Partners Names Veteran Executive Charles Falck as New CFO

GQG Partners Inc. has appointed experienced investment management executive Charles Falck as its new chief financial officer, effective 1 January 2026, following the retirement of long-serving CFO Melodie Zakaluk. Falck, who previously served as the firm’s deputy CFO and before that as chief operating officer overseeing GQG’s global operational infrastructure, brings more than two decades of industry experience from roles at Vontobel Asset Management, ESAE Capital Partners and Goldman Sachs, a move that underscores the company’s emphasis on continuity in leadership and operational strength as it manages more than US$166 billion for institutional clients globally.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GQG) stock is a Buy with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GQG Partners, Inc. Shs Chess Depository Interests Repr 1 Sh stock, see the AU:GQG Stock Forecast page.