Graincorp Limited Class A (GNC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$1.28B
• Dividend Yield: 6.42%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.47M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 32.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.60
• Revenue Growth: 12.27%
• EPS Growth: -35.60%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 2,380
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Agricultural Farm Products
• EPS (TTM): 0.07
• Shares Outstanding: 222,300,690
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,503,091
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,474,847
• PEG Ratio: -1.39
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.41
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.27
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.19
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$7.32
• Price Target Upside: 26.35% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.46
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$6.96B

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$6.50 ▲(12.26% Upside)

The score is anchored by strong financial momentum and cash flow strength, supported by a generally positive earnings-call outlook and shareholder returns. However, the technical setup is notably weak (price below key moving averages and negative MACD), and the high P/E tempers the otherwise attractive dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Exceptional free cash flow growth and very high cash conversion indicate sustainable internal funding for capex, dividends and buybacks. Durable cash generation reduces refinancing risk, supports steady shareholder returns and funds strategic investments across cycles without reliance on markets.

Scale & earnings

Strong revenue growth, record EBITDA and high handling volumes reflect scale and operational reach in core grain and oilseed markets. Scale confers competitive advantages in logistics and margins, smoothing fixed costs and enabling resilient cashflows across seasonal and cyclical agricultural markets over the medium term.

Balance sheet & capital returns

A strengthened capital structure with a sizable core cash balance and reduced leverage underpins financial flexibility. Combined with ongoing dividends and buybacks, this demonstrates disciplined capital allocation that supports shareholder returns while retaining capacity to invest in growth or absorb shocks.

Negative Factors

Thin net margins

Very low net margins and falling ROE limit the company's ability to translate revenue growth into lasting shareholder returns. Margin compression narrows the buffer against commodity cycles and cost shocks, increasing sensitivity of profitability to input prices and volume swings over the medium term.

International asset risk

An impairment on an international investment signals higher execution and market risks outside core domestic operations. Persistent international pressures can erode returns, require capital write-downs or additional investment, and constrain the company’s ability to scale profitable overseas operations over time.

Commodity margin exposure

Crush-margin sensitivity to crop yields and global oilseed supply creates structural earnings volatility. Prolonged periods of ample global supply or adverse local harvests can sustain margin pressure, reducing predictability of profits in processing segments and complicating long-term planning and investment returns.

Graincorp Limited Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GrainCorp Limited operates as an agribusiness and processing company in Australasia, Asia, North America, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Agribusiness and Processing. The company handles, markets, and trades in wheat, barley, sorghum, corn, oilseeds, pulses, organics, canola, chickpeas, and specialty commodities; handles, processes, stores, and transports grains and oilseeds; refines, bleaches, deodorizes, and blends edible fats and oil products; and crushes, processes, manufactures, and distributes edible oils. It also manufactures and supplies molasses-based feed supplements and vegetable oil to enhance farm productivity in beef cattle, sheep, dairy cattle, and other domestic livestock; and crude degummed canola oils, refined bleached canola oils, and canola meal. In addition, the company provides blended and single oils, infant nutrition, bakery margarines, spreads, and shortening; crushes oilseed products are used in cooking oils, spreads and shortenings, prepared foods, meal for dairy, poultry and livestock, cosmetics and lubricants, fuels, and other industrial applications; and operates seven bulk port terminals. Further it is involved in the procurement, shipping, accreditation, and value-added supply of tallow and used cooking oil, which are used for renewable energy feedstock and industrial applications, as well as vegetable oils; and the provision of logistics services. GrainCorp Limited was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

GrainCorp generates revenue through several key streams: first, its grain handling and storage services, which involve charging farmers and other clients for the storage of their grain, as well as fees for loading and unloading grain at its facilities. Second, the company earns income from grain marketing and trading activities, where it buys grains from farmers and sells them to domestic and international markets. Third, GrainCorp's processing segment produces value-added products, including flour and animal feed, contributing to its revenue. Additionally, strategic partnerships with agricultural producers and distributors enhance its market reach and operational efficiency, while fluctuations in global grain prices and demand significantly influence its earnings.

Graincorp Limited Class A Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are solid overall: revenue rose 98% and cash generation is strong (free cash flow up 81.79% with high cash conversion). Offsetting this, profitability is thin (net margin 0.55%) and return on equity declined to 2.85%, despite an improved leverage profile (debt-to-equity 0.59).

Income Statement

Graincorp Limited has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 98% increase in the latest period, indicating robust demand and expansion. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 0.55% from 0.95% in the previous year, reflecting challenges in cost management or pricing pressure. The gross profit margin is healthy at 12.89%, showing effective cost control at the production level. The EBIT margin has improved to 2.61%, suggesting better operational efficiency compared to the previous year.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.59, indicating a more balanced capital structure and reduced leverage risk. However, the return on equity has decreased to 2.85%, which may concern investors looking for higher returns. The equity ratio stands at 52.15%, reflecting a solid equity base relative to total assets, which enhances financial stability.

Cash Flow

Graincorp Limited has shown impressive free cash flow growth of 81.79%, highlighting strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 6.24, indicating efficient conversion of net income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 4.43, underscoring the company's ability to generate cash beyond its net earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.30B	7.29B	6.49B	8.21B	7.85B	5.48B
Gross Profit	666.20M	939.20M	680.40M	781.40M	1.18B	392.30M
EBITDA	360.50M	270.10M	288.30M	584.50M	717.60M	340.50M
Net Income	39.90M	39.90M	61.80M	249.70M	380.40M	139.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.69B	2.69B	2.90B	3.47B	3.41B	2.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	511.30M	511.30M	596.50M	734.80M	322.40M	126.60M
Total Debt	833.90M	833.90M	940.00M	1.21B	1.10B	967.60M
Total Liabilities	1.29B	1.29B	1.40B	1.83B	1.89B	1.49B
Stockholders Equity	1.40B	1.40B	1.50B	1.59B	1.45B	1.21B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	176.70M	176.70M	76.00M	509.00M	364.20M	123.30M
Operating Cash Flow	249.10M	249.10M	130.70M	575.30M	445.00M	177.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-76.90M	-76.90M	33.70M	-91.20M	-105.40M	-55.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-257.40M	-257.40M	-177.10M	-197.30M	-143.80M	-120.90M

Graincorp Limited Class A Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 5.79
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:GNC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.79 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.00, below the 50-day MA of 7.50, and below the 200-day MA of 7.65, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 15.95 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.14 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:GNC.

Graincorp Limited Class A Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SGLLV	69 Neutral	AU$1.03B	13.84	12.11%	4.07%	-2.82%	12.29%
FRM	66 Neutral	AU$53.08M	7.62	29.12%	―	2.63%	―
GNC	63 Neutral	AU$1.28B	32.87	2.58%	6.42%	12.27%	-35.60%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
ING	60 Neutral	AU$931.65M	10.43	36.84%	7.63%	-3.36%	-11.53%
ELD	57 Neutral	AU$1.57B	27.66	5.24%	5.16%	2.25%	-2.41%
AAC	49 Neutral	AU$804.35M	13.98	3.47%	―	16.63%	66.67%

Graincorp Limited Class A Corporate Events

GrainCorp Flags Softer FY26 Earnings as Global Grain Glut Squeezes Margins

GrainCorp has issued FY26 earnings guidance that signals a softer year, forecasting Underlying EBITDA of $200–240 million and Underlying NPAT of $20–50 million, down from $308 million and $87 million respectively in FY25, as global grain oversupply and low prices compress export margins to multi-year lows. Despite a solid East Coast Australia winter crop and stable performance expected from its Nutrition and Energy segment, the company faces reduced receival and export volumes and lower agri-energy contribution amid US biofuels policy uncertainty, and is accelerating cost management initiatives while emphasising a strong balance sheet to support continued strategy execution.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GNC) stock is a Buy with a A$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graincorp Limited Class A stock, see the AU:GNC Stock Forecast page.

GrainCorp Sets Hybrid AGM to Ratify Board Changes and CEO Incentives

GrainCorp Limited has called its 2026 Annual General Meeting for 18 February in Sydney, to be held as a hybrid event allowing shareholders to attend either in person or online via an MUFG-hosted platform. The AGM agenda includes receiving the 2025 financial report, voting on the Remuneration Report, electing recently appointed non-executive directors Samantha Hogg and Sarah Adam-Gedge, approving a grant of performance rights to managing director and CEO Robert Spurway, and acknowledging the retirement of non-executive director Kathy Grigg, while the board urges investors to use direct voting or proxies and to shift to electronic communications to streamline shareholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GNC) stock is a Buy with a A$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graincorp Limited Class A stock, see the AU:GNC Stock Forecast page.

GrainCorp Updates Market on Progress of On‑Market Share Buy-Back

GrainCorp Limited has provided an updated notification to the ASX regarding its on‑market share buy-back of Ordinary Fully Paid Class A shares, confirming that a total of 5,192,500 securities had been repurchased before the previous day and an additional 53,671 shares were bought back on the previous trading day. The ongoing daily buy-back activity, first notified in February 2025 and now updated as of 30 December 2025, indicates continued execution of the company’s capital management program, which is likely aimed at optimising its capital structure and may enhance earnings per share and shareholder value over time.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GNC) stock is a Buy with a A$9.35 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graincorp Limited Class A stock, see the AU:GNC Stock Forecast page.

GrainCorp Sets February 2026 Date and Nomination Deadline for AGM Director Elections

GrainCorp Limited has announced that its next Annual General Meeting will be held on 18 February 2026, with the election of directors to be included as an item of business. The company has set 6 January 2026 as the deadline for receiving nominations from individuals seeking election to the board, formalising the timetable for board renewal and governance processes ahead of the meeting.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GNC) stock is a Buy with a A$9.35 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graincorp Limited Class A stock, see the AU:GNC Stock Forecast page.

GrainCorp Sells GrainsConnect Canada Amidst Challenging Market Conditions

GrainCorp Limited has announced the sale of its joint venture, GrainsConnect Canada, to Parrish & Heimbecker, Limited, following a strategic review due to challenging financial performance. The transaction, valued at C$150 million, allows GrainCorp to focus on more profitable ventures, although it will incur a loss of A$5-10 million. The sale is expected to complete in the first half of 2026 and does not affect GrainCorp’s Canadian marketing operations. Additionally, GrainCorp’s trading update reveals a decrease in receival volumes for the 2025-26 East Coast Australia winter harvest due to lower crop yields and market conditions, prompting the company to emphasize cost management while maintaining customer service.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GNC) stock is a Hold with a A$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graincorp Limited Class A stock, see the AU:GNC Stock Forecast page.

GrainCorp CEO Adjusts Shareholding to Meet Tax Obligations

GrainCorp Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, as its Managing Director and CEO, Robert Spurway, sold 149,706 shares to meet tax obligations related to the vesting of performance rights. Despite this sale, Spurway retains a significant shareholding in the company, maintaining 532,888 shares through direct and indirect holdings. This transaction reflects routine financial management by the company’s leadership and is not expected to impact GrainCorp’s operations or market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GNC) stock is a Buy with a A$9.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graincorp Limited Class A stock, see the AU:GNC Stock Forecast page.

GrainCorp Announces Director’s Interest Changes Reflecting Incentive Plan Adjustments

GrainCorp Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically concerning Robert Spurway. The changes involve the vesting and lapsing of performance and deferred equity rights into ordinary shares, reflecting adjustments in Spurway’s direct and indirect holdings. This update is part of GrainCorp’s ongoing remuneration strategy, impacting the distribution of shares and rights under its short-term and long-term incentive plans. The changes are indicative of the company’s structured approach to executive compensation, aligning with its financial strategies and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GNC) stock is a Buy with a A$9.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graincorp Limited Class A stock, see the AU:GNC Stock Forecast page.

Graincorp Limited Announces Cessation of Performance Rights

Graincorp Limited announced the cessation of 148,100 performance rights due to the lapse of conditional rights that were not satisfied. This announcement may impact the company’s capital structure and reflects on the performance criteria set for these securities, potentially influencing investor perceptions and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GNC) stock is a Buy with a A$9.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graincorp Limited Class A stock, see the AU:GNC Stock Forecast page.

Graincorp Limited Announces Dividend Distribution for Class A Shares

Graincorp Limited has announced a dividend distribution of AUD 0.24 per share for its ordinary fully paid Class A shares. The dividend relates to the financial period ending on September 30, 2025, with the ex-date set for November 26, 2025, and the payment date scheduled for December 11, 2025. This announcement reflects Graincorp’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders and may impact investor sentiment positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GNC) stock is a Buy with a A$10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graincorp Limited Class A stock, see the AU:GNC Stock Forecast page.

GrainCorp Releases 2025 Corporate Governance Statement

GrainCorp Limited has released its Corporate Governance Statement for the financial year ending September 2025, highlighting its adherence to the ASX Corporate Governance Principles and Recommendations. The company undertook several governance-focused activities, including reviewing employee engagement, risk management, and board effectiveness. Additionally, GrainCorp appointed two new non-executive directors to support board succession and engaged in director education sessions to enhance knowledge in key areas such as climate and sustainability.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GNC) stock is a Buy with a A$10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graincorp Limited Class A stock, see the AU:GNC Stock Forecast page.

GrainCorp Limited Announces FY25 Results Amid Industry Challenges

GrainCorp Limited, a key player in the agribusiness sector, focuses on the storage, handling, and marketing of grains and oilseeds, serving both domestic and international markets. The recent FY25 results announcement highlights the company’s performance for the year ending September 30, 2025, with an emphasis on the challenges and uncertainties faced due to industry-specific risks and economic conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GNC) stock is a Buy with a A$10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graincorp Limited Class A stock, see the AU:GNC Stock Forecast page.

GrainCorp Reports Strong FY25 Results Amid Challenging Market Conditions

GrainCorp Limited reported a robust financial performance for FY25, with an underlying EBITDA of $308 million, reflecting an increase from the previous year. Despite a challenging global margin environment, the company achieved higher volumes in its East Coast Australia business and maintained a strong balance sheet with core cash of $321 million. The agribusiness segment saw significant growth due to increased grain production and effective execution of chickpea and canola programs. However, the Nutrition and Energy segment faced challenges due to lower crush margins. The company declared a total final dividend of 24 cents per share and continued its strategic focus on enhancing its integrated network to create long-term value for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GNC) stock is a Buy with a A$10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graincorp Limited Class A stock, see the AU:GNC Stock Forecast page.

GrainCorp Reports Revenue Growth Amid Decline in Net Profit

GrainCorp Limited reported a 12.3% increase in revenue to $7,305.7 million for the year ending September 30, 2025. However, the net profit after tax attributable to owners fell by 35.4% to $39.9 million. The company announced a final ordinary dividend of 14 cents per share and a special dividend of 10 cents per share, with a payment date set for December 11, 2025. The decline in net profit may impact stakeholders’ expectations, despite the revenue growth, reflecting challenges in operational efficiency or market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GNC) stock is a Buy with a A$10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graincorp Limited Class A stock, see the AU:GNC Stock Forecast page.

GrainCorp Announces FY25 Results Webcast

GrainCorp Limited has announced a webcast briefing for its full-year 2025 results, scheduled for November 13, 2025. The briefing will be led by CEO Robert Spurway and CFO Ian Morrison, providing insights into the company’s performance and future outlook. This event is significant for stakeholders as it offers an opportunity to understand the company’s operational strategies and market positioning, potentially impacting investor decisions and market perceptions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GNC) stock is a Buy with a A$10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graincorp Limited Class A stock, see the AU:GNC Stock Forecast page.

GrainCorp Limited Appoints New Director Sarah Adam-Gedge

GrainCorp Limited has announced the appointment of Sarah Adam-Gedge as a new director, effective from November 1, 2025. The initial director’s interest notice indicates that she currently holds no relevant interests in securities of the company. This appointment may impact the company’s governance and strategic direction, potentially influencing stakeholder confidence and future operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GNC) stock is a Buy with a A$10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Graincorp Limited Class A stock, see the AU:GNC Stock Forecast page.