Graincorp Limited Class A (AU:GNC)
ASX:GNC
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Graincorp Limited Class A
(Sydney:GNC)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
AU$5.50
▼(-13.39% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance—especially strong cash generation and improved operating efficiency—tempered by very weak technical momentum. Valuation is pressured by a high P/E despite a supportive dividend yield, while the latest earnings call was moderately constructive with reaffirmed guidance but notable cyclical and timing-related headwinds.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained high free cash flow growth and excellent cash conversion provide durable internal funding for capex, dividends and transformation programs. Strong cash generation reduces refinancing risk through commodity cycles and supports strategic optionality over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Thin profitability and low returns
Margins and return metrics remain very low despite revenue and efficiency improvements, limiting retained earnings and reinvestment capacity. Persistently thin net margins constrain the company's ability to generate high incremental shareholder returns during normal commodity cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained high free cash flow growth and excellent cash conversion provide durable internal funding for capex, dividends and transformation programs. Strong cash generation reduces refinancing risk through commodity cycles and supports strategic optionality over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Graincorp Limited Class A (GNC) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$1.09B
Dividend Yield6.42%
Average Volume (3M)1.47M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth-1.68%
EPS Growth-119.86%
CountryAU
Employees2,380
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.06
Shares Outstanding222,300,690
10 Day Avg. Volume1,503,091
30 Day Avg. Volume1,474,847
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.39
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)0.27
P/FCF Ratio11.19
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$6.29Price Target Upside-0.98% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$6.70B
Graincorp Limited Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GrainCorp Limited operates as an agribusiness and processing company in Australasia, Asia, North America, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Agribusiness and Processing. The company handle...
How the Company Makes Money
GrainCorp makes money primarily through a mix of service fees, merchandising margins, and processing/manufacturing revenues across its integrated supply chain. (1) Storage and handling: It earns fees from growers and grain owners for receiving, sa...
Graincorp Limited Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: strong operational execution (H1 underlying EBITDA $136M), continued dividend and portfolio optimisation, progress on transformation and sustainability initiatives, and clear capital discipline. However, cyclical headwinds — notably a global grain oversupply compressing margins, mark-to-market derivative effects in nutrition & energy, lower agri-energy demand and one-off exit and transformation costs — meaningfully constrained reported results. Management reiterated FY26 guidance and emphasised confidence in through-the-cycle earnings and transformation savings, but several near-term timing and commodity-market risks remain.Positive Updates
Solid Half-Year Underlying EBITDA
Reported underlying EBITDA of $136 million for H1 FY26 and the Board reaffirmed FY26 guidance of $200–$240 million underlying EBITDA and underlying NPAT of $20–$50 million.
Negative Updates
Compressed Margins from Global Grain Oversupply
Management cited a cyclical global oversupply of grains that depressed prices, reduced grower selling activity and compressed margins across the East Coast Australia (ECA) agribusiness, contributing to a lower agribusiness segment result year-on-year.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Solid Half-Year Underlying EBITDA
Reported underlying EBITDA of $136 million for H1 FY26 and the Board reaffirmed FY26 guidance of $200–$240 million underlying EBITDA and underlying NPAT of $20–$50 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
GrainCorp reaffirmed FY‑26 guidance of underlying EBITDA $200–240m and underlying NPAT $20–50m after reporting H1 underlying EBITDA of $136m and core cash of $163m, and the Board declared an ordinary fully‑franked interim dividend of $0.14 per share; full‑year CapEx is guided to $85–90m (H1 CapEx $30m, sustaining $15m). Management expects a normal net‑working‑capital unwind into H2, FY‑26 crush margins broadly in line with FY‑25 (H1 mark‑to‑market derivative losses expected to unwind in H2), and reiterated transformation targets of $5–10m run‑rate exit savings in FY‑26 and $20–30m EBITDA uplift on completion (H1 Transformation OpEx $17m); other H1 items included an estimated $16m loss on the GrainsConnect Canada exit. Key operational metrics cited were 277,000 t canola crushed, 3.3m t exported via ports (vs 3.2m pcp), 1.5m t bulk materials handled (up from 1.2m), 390,000 t animal nutrition sales (up from 370,000) and 26.5m t total grain handled, with management noting through‑the‑cycle earnings of ~$320m.Graincorp Limited Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.08B | 7.29B | 6.49B | 8.21B | 7.85B | 5.48B |
| Gross Profit | 173.90M | 939.20M | 680.40M | 781.40M | 1.18B | 392.30M |
| EBITDA | 86.90M | 270.10M | 288.30M | 584.50M | 717.60M | 340.50M |
| Net Income | -13.60M | 39.90M | 61.80M | 249.70M | 380.40M | 139.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.97B | 2.69B | 2.90B | 3.47B | 3.41B | 2.75B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 287.40M | 511.30M | 596.50M | 734.80M | 322.40M | 126.60M |
| Total Debt | 1.90B | 833.90M | 940.00M | 1.21B | 1.10B | 967.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.62B | 1.29B | 1.40B | 1.83B | 1.89B | 1.49B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.35B | 1.40B | 1.50B | 1.59B | 1.45B | 1.21B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -52.30M | 176.70M | 76.00M | 509.00M | 364.20M | 123.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 19.40M | 249.10M | 130.70M | 575.30M | 445.00M | 177.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -76.40M | -76.90M | 33.70M | -91.20M | -105.40M | -55.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 16.00M | -257.40M | -177.10M | -197.30M | -143.80M | -120.90M |
Graincorp Limited Class A Technical Analysis
Negative
6.35
Price Trends
6.00
Negative
6.18
Negative
7.19
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.34
Negative
34.10
Neutral
51.37
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:GNC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.35 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.38, above the 50-day MA of 6.00, and below the 200-day MA of 7.19, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 34.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:GNC.
Graincorp Limited Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | AU$1.19B | 20.51 | 4.83% | 5.16% | 11.05% | -30.84% | |
64 Neutral | AU$830.42M | 11.15 | 11.83% | 4.07% | -2.82% | 12.29% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | AU$1.09B | -79.73 | -0.99% | 6.42% | -1.68% | -119.86% | |
52 Neutral | AU$1.23M | -1.14 | -268.42% | ― | ― | ― | |
42 Neutral | AU$8.51M | -1.76 | -90.33% | ― | -83.83% | 84.80% | |
42 Neutral | AU$58.92M | -2.29 | -20.91% | 29.49% | -33.47% | -2365.66% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AU:GNC
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Graincorp Limited Class A Corporate Events
GrainCorp schedules webcast to present 1H26 results and outlook
May 8, 2026
GrainCorp Limited has announced that its Managing Director and CEO, Robert Spurway, and Chief Financial Officer, Ian Morrison, will host a webcast briefing to present the company’s half-year 2026 financial results and outlook to analysts and...
Australian Retirement Trust exits substantial holding in GrainCorp
Mar 24, 2026
Australian Retirement Trust Pty Ltd has notified GrainCorp Limited that it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the agribusiness as of 20 March 2026. The move, lodged under Australia’s Corporations Act disclosure rules and signed by...
GrainCorp CEO Robert Spurway Receives Additional Equity-Based Incentives
Mar 11, 2026
GrainCorp Limited has reported a change in the interests of its managing director and CEO, Robert Spurway, reflecting an increase in his equity-based incentives. The update details his holdings in ordinary shares, deferred equity rights, and perfo...
GrainCorp Issues Unquoted Equity Securities Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Mar 11, 2026
GrainCorp Limited has notified the market of the issuance of new unquoted equity securities under its employee incentive arrangements. The company will issue 362,057 performance rights and 173,875 deferred equity rights, both dated 6 March 2026, w...
GrainCorp Issues 44,245 New Class A Shares on Convertible Securities Exercise
Mar 11, 2026
GrainCorp Limited has issued 44,245 new ordinary fully paid Class A shares following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted options or other convertible securities. The issuance, dated 6 March 2026 and disclosed via an Appendix 3G notif...
GrainCorp Director Sarah Adam-Gedge Acquires Initial Stake of 8,500 Shares
Feb 27, 2026
GrainCorp Limited has disclosed a change in director Sarah Adam-Gedge’s relevant interest in the company’s securities, following an on-market purchase. Through her AustralianSuper member account, held via JP Morgan Nominees Australia L...
GrainCorp Director John Maher Increases Indirect Shareholding
Feb 24, 2026
GrainCorp Limited has disclosed a change in director John Maher’s indirect interest in the company’s shares, lodged in accordance with ASX listing rules. The notice details that Maher holds his interest via the Maher Superannuation Fun...
GrainCorp Director Knoblanche Lifts Indirect Shareholding
Feb 24, 2026
GrainCorp director Peter Knoblanche has increased his indirect shareholding in the company through an on‑market purchase. Acting via UpperAvenueRoad Pty Ltd as trustee for The UpperAvenueRoad Superannuation Trust, he acquired 9,000 fully pai...
GrainCorp Discloses Director Kathy Grigg’s Final Shareholdings After Board Exit
Feb 23, 2026
GrainCorp Limited has announced the cessation of Kathy Grigg as a director effective 18 February 2026, formalising the change in its board composition through a final director’s interest notice to the ASX. The notice records that Grigg holds...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.