Graincorp Limited Class A (AU:GNC)
ASX:GNC
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Graincorp Limited Class A
(Sydney:GNC)
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Select Model
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
AU$7.00
▲(6.38% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/03/26
The score is anchored by strong financial momentum and cash flow strength, supported by a generally positive earnings-call outlook and shareholder returns. However, the technical setup is notably weak (price below key moving averages and negative MACD), and the high P/E tempers the otherwise attractive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Very strong free cash flow growth and high cash conversion ratios indicate durable internal funding for capex, dividends and buybacks. This reduces reliance on external financing and supports financial flexibility through commodity cycles over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
Thin profitability
Despite revenue gains, very low net margins and falling ROE point to weak bottom‑line conversion and limited returns on equity. This constrains the company’s ability to generate high shareholder returns from incremental sales absent structural margin improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Very strong free cash flow growth and high cash conversion ratios indicate durable internal funding for capex, dividends and buybacks. This reduces reliance on external financing and supports financial flexibility through commodity cycles over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive factors
Graincorp Limited Class A (GNC) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$1.47B
Dividend Yield6.42%
Average Volume (3M)1.47M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth12.27%
EPS Growth-35.60%
CountryAU
Employees2,380
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryAgricultural Farm Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.07
Shares Outstanding222,300,690
10 Day Avg. Volume1,503,091
30 Day Avg. Volume1,474,847
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.39
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)0.27
P/FCF Ratio11.19
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$7.40Price Target Upside12.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$6.51B
Graincorp Limited Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GrainCorp Limited operates as an agribusiness and processing company in Australasia, Asia, North America, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Agribusiness and Processing. The company handle...
How the Company Makes Money
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Graincorp Limited Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 12, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial metrics including a record underlying EBITDA, significant growth in the Animal Nutrition segment, and a robust balance sheet. However, these positives were tempered by challenges in international segments, particularly in Canada, and lower crush margins. Despite these challenges, the company's strategic initiatives and sustainability efforts show promise for future growth.Positive Updates
Record Underlying EBITDA
GrainCorp reported a financial year '25 underlying EBITDA of $308 million, which is an increase over the previous year.
Negative Updates
Impairment of GrainsConnect
A non-cash impairment of $26 million was recorded relating to the investment in GrainsConnect Canada due to challenging trading conditions.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Underlying EBITDA
GrainCorp reported a financial year '25 underlying EBITDA of $308 million, which is an increase over the previous year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the GrainCorp Limited FY '25 results call, the company reported a strong financial performance with an underlying EBITDA of $308 million, an increase from the previous year. The total grain handled was 31.6 million tonnes, while the oilseed crush volumes reached record levels. The balance sheet reflected a robust position with $321 million in core cash. The company announced total dividends of $0.48 per share, fully franked, and completed $38 million of a $75 million share buyback. The strategic focus on sustainability included a 42% reduction target in Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2030. Additionally, GrainCorp saw an 83% growth in Animal Nutrition sales over four years, and the Agri-Energy sector remained strong despite global market challenges. The company's outlook suggests a continuation of similar margin environments into FY '26.Graincorp Limited Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 7.29B | 6.49B | 8.21B | 7.85B | 5.48B |
| Gross Profit | 939.20M | 680.40M | 781.40M | 1.18B | 392.30M |
| EBITDA | 270.10M | 288.30M | 584.50M | 717.60M | 340.50M |
| Net Income | 39.90M | 61.80M | 249.70M | 380.40M | 139.30M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.69B | 2.90B | 3.47B | 3.41B | 2.75B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 511.30M | 596.50M | 734.80M | 322.40M | 126.60M |
| Total Debt | 833.90M | 940.00M | 1.21B | 1.10B | 967.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.29B | 1.40B | 1.83B | 1.89B | 1.49B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.40B | 1.50B | 1.59B | 1.45B | 1.21B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 176.70M | 76.00M | 509.00M | 364.20M | 123.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 249.10M | 130.70M | 575.30M | 445.00M | 177.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -76.90M | 33.70M | -91.20M | -105.40M | -55.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -257.40M | -177.10M | -197.30M | -143.80M | -120.90M |
Graincorp Limited Class A Technical Analysis
Neutral
6.58
Price Trends
6.16
Positive
6.90
Negative
7.46
Negative
Market Momentum
0.12
Negative
59.92
Neutral
72.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:GNC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 6.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.41, above the 50-day MA of 6.16, and below the 200-day MA of 7.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:GNC.
Graincorp Limited Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | AU$935.67M | 8.02 | 11.83% | 4.07% | -2.82% | 12.29% | |
63 Neutral | AU$1.47B | -26.77 | 2.74% | 6.42% | 12.27% | -35.60% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
57 Neutral | AU$1.64B | 27.37 | 5.24% | 5.16% | 2.25% | -2.41% | |
52 Neutral | AU$1.23M | -1.19 | -268.42% | ― | 17.85% | 52.81% | |
45 Neutral | AU$70.17M | -1.37 | -20.91% | 29.49% | -16.73% | -343.82% | |
44 Neutral | AU$9.16M | -1.51 | -90.33% | ― | -94.79% | 82.57% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AU:GNC
Graincorp Limited Class A
6.58
0.43
6.97%
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7.60
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35.02%
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0.01
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-33.33%
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0.01
0.00
0.00%
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Graincorp Limited Class A Corporate Events
Australian Retirement Trust exits substantial holding in GrainCorp
Mar 24, 2026
Australian Retirement Trust Pty Ltd has notified GrainCorp Limited that it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the agribusiness as of 20 March 2026. The move, lodged under Australia’s Corporations Act disclosure rules and signed by...
GrainCorp CEO Robert Spurway Receives Additional Equity-Based Incentives
Mar 11, 2026
GrainCorp Limited has reported a change in the interests of its managing director and CEO, Robert Spurway, reflecting an increase in his equity-based incentives. The update details his holdings in ordinary shares, deferred equity rights, and perfo...
GrainCorp Issues Unquoted Equity Securities Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Mar 11, 2026
GrainCorp Limited has notified the market of the issuance of new unquoted equity securities under its employee incentive arrangements. The company will issue 362,057 performance rights and 173,875 deferred equity rights, both dated 6 March 2026, w...
GrainCorp Issues 44,245 New Class A Shares on Convertible Securities Exercise
Mar 11, 2026
GrainCorp Limited has issued 44,245 new ordinary fully paid Class A shares following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted options or other convertible securities. The issuance, dated 6 March 2026 and disclosed via an Appendix 3G notif...
GrainCorp Director Sarah Adam-Gedge Acquires Initial Stake of 8,500 Shares
Feb 27, 2026
GrainCorp Limited has disclosed a change in director Sarah Adam-Gedge’s relevant interest in the company’s securities, following an on-market purchase. Through her AustralianSuper member account, held via JP Morgan Nominees Australia L...
GrainCorp Director John Maher Increases Indirect Shareholding
Feb 24, 2026
GrainCorp Limited has disclosed a change in director John Maher’s indirect interest in the company’s shares, lodged in accordance with ASX listing rules. The notice details that Maher holds his interest via the Maher Superannuation Fun...
GrainCorp Director Knoblanche Lifts Indirect Shareholding
Feb 24, 2026
GrainCorp director Peter Knoblanche has increased his indirect shareholding in the company through an on‑market purchase. Acting via UpperAvenueRoad Pty Ltd as trustee for The UpperAvenueRoad Superannuation Trust, he acquired 9,000 fully pai...
GrainCorp Discloses Director Kathy Grigg’s Final Shareholdings After Board Exit
Feb 23, 2026
GrainCorp Limited has announced the cessation of Kathy Grigg as a director effective 18 February 2026, formalising the change in its board composition through a final director’s interest notice to the ASX. The notice records that Grigg holds...
GrainCorp Flags Softer FY26 Earnings as Global Grain Glut Squeezes Margins
Feb 1, 2026
GrainCorp has issued FY26 earnings guidance that signals a softer year, forecasting Underlying EBITDA of $200–240 million and Underlying NPAT of $20–50 million, down from $308 million and $87 million respectively in FY25, as global gra...
GrainCorp Sets Hybrid AGM to Ratify Board Changes and CEO Incentives
Jan 16, 2026
GrainCorp Limited has called its 2026 Annual General Meeting for 18 February in Sydney, to be held as a hybrid event allowing shareholders to attend either in person or online via an MUFG-hosted platform. The AGM agenda includes receiving the 2025...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.