Goodman Group (AU:GMG)
ASX:GMG
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Goodman Group
(Sydney:GMG)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
AU$27.00
▲(7.66% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial strength and a constructive earnings outlook (reiterated FY26 EPS growth guidance, expanding WIP, low gearing/liquidity). This is offset by premium valuation (high P/E, low yield) and only moderate technical momentum, plus cash flow/revenue trend concerns.
Positive Factors
Low leverage and strong liquidity
Very low gearing and multi-billion liquidity provide durable financial flexibility to fund development, absorb cyclical shocks and negotiate partnerships. This reduces refinancing risk, supports disciplined capital recycling and enables sustained investment in large, multi‑year industrial and data‑centre projects.
Negative Factors
Weak cash conversion and FCF decline
Negative free cash flow growth and sub‑par cash conversion reduce the group's ability to self‑fund development and distributions. Over time this increases reliance on debt or partner capital, heightens sensitivity to capital markets and may constrain reinvestment or dividend resilience during slower transactional periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low leverage and strong liquidity
Very low gearing and multi-billion liquidity provide durable financial flexibility to fund development, absorb cyclical shocks and negotiate partnerships. This reduces refinancing risk, supports disciplined capital recycling and enables sustained investment in large, multi‑year industrial and data‑centre projects.
Read all positive factors
Goodman Group (GMG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$51.28B
Dividend Yield1.02%
Average Volume (3M)3.83M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.2
Beta (1Y)1.44
Revenue Growth16.87%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryAU
Employees900
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.58
Shares Outstanding2,044,793,100
10 Day Avg. Volume3,957,829
30 Day Avg. Volume3,826,034
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)2.90
Price to Sales (P/S)30.65
P/FCF Ratio70.96
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$34.60Price Target Upside37.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)1.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$3.15B
Goodman Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Goodman Group is an integrated property group with operations throughout Australia, New Zealand, Asia, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, North America and Brazil. Goodman Group, comprised of the stapled entities Goodman Limited, Goodman Indu...
How the Company Makes Money
Goodman Group’s earnings are primarily generated from three integrated activities: (1) Property investment income, (2) Development-related profits, and (3) Funds management and related fees.
1) Property investment income (recurring)
- Rental inco...
Goodman Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong operational and strategic progress — including $1.2 billion operating profit, an expanded power bank, growing WIP (to ~$18bn), major development partnerships, low gearing and healthy liquidity — positioning Goodman to capture data center and logistics demand. Key challenges include a material drop in transactional/performance management income, FX and hedging volatility, lower near-term development completions and limited pre-leasing on many data center projects. Management emphasized a disciplined partnering approach, maintained EPS growth guidance (9% target for FY26) and confidence in funding and delivery, suggesting positives outweigh the near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Operating Profit
Reported operating profit of $1.2 billion for H1 FY26, a little higher than management had expected at the prior quarter.
Negative Updates
Significant Decline in Transactional/Performance Management Income
Management income was $137 million lower than the prior corresponding half; transactional and performance-based revenues fell by $160 million to $79 million, driving the majority of the decline.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Operating Profit
Reported operating profit of $1.2 billion for H1 FY26, a little higher than management had expected at the prior quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Goodman reiterated guidance to deliver operating EPS growth of 9% for FY‑26 and expects rising activity and customer commitments through 2026 as more starts convert to construction: work‑in‑progress is ~$14.4bn today and is expected to be ~ $18bn by June (including ~500 MW of data‑center projects underway by June and a 90 MW fully‑fitted Sydney start this quarter), the power bank has grown from 5 GW to 6 GW across 16 cities, expected WIP yield‑on‑cost has risen to >8% (now >70% data centers), and the group targets increased third‑party stabilized AUM (portfolio $87.4bn, external AUM $75bn, stabilized third‑party AUM avg ~$69bn); H1 operating profit was $1.2bn, H1 development completions were $2.5bn (87% leased), average annualised production was ~$6.3bn (vs $6.6bn pcp), gearing is low at 4.1% with $5.2bn liquidity, net WACD ~1% (gross borrowing cost ~4%), and Goodman will continue to scale via capital partnerships (e.g., $14bn European DC JV, $2bn U.S. logistics JV) while expecting sequential half‑on‑half income growth as activity increases.Goodman Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.44B | 2.21B | 1.92B | 1.96B | 2.06B | 1.87B |
| Gross Profit | 891.10M | 1.42B | 1.37B | 1.33B | 1.45B | 947.90M |
| EBITDA | 2.08B | 2.18B | 22.80M | 462.10M | 688.20M | 515.00M |
| Net Income | 1.69B | 1.67B | -98.90M | 1.56B | 3.41B | 2.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 30.32B | 31.57B | 23.83B | 24.07B | 21.47B | 16.89B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.96B | 3.96B | 1.79B | 1.36B | 1.06B | 920.40M |
| Total Debt | 4.22B | 5.28B | 3.72B | 3.36B | 2.90B | 2.15B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.57B | 8.26B | 6.29B | 6.05B | 5.04B | 3.73B |
| Stockholders Equity | 23.75B | 23.31B | 17.54B | 18.02B | 16.42B | 13.16B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.17B | 953.20M | 1.18B | 1.27B | 835.10M | 1.11B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.21B | 959.60M | 1.19B | 1.28B | 841.00M | 1.11B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.13B | -3.48B | -688.20M | -716.00M | -1.00B | -549.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.44B | 4.60B | -52.40M | -308.80M | 299.70M | -1.35B |
Goodman Group Technical Analysis
Negative
25.08
Price Trends
28.69
Negative
29.32
Negative
31.69
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.99
Negative
34.10
Neutral
43.43
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:GMG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.28, below the 50-day MA of 28.69, and below the 200-day MA of 31.69, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.99 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 34.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:GMG.
Goodman Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | AU$10.42B | 11.82 | 8.50% | 4.29% | 4.75% | 170.39% | |
70 Outperform | AU$8.74B | 10.60 | 19.38% | 1.97% | 15.06% | 47.66% | |
69 Neutral | AU$8.70B | 10.58 | 7.84% | 4.41% | 12.66% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
65 Neutral | AU$51.28B | 19.16 | 7.19% | 1.02% | 16.87% | ― | |
56 Neutral | AU$6.37B | 5.34 | 4.78% | 5.32% | 4.52% | ― | |
54 Neutral | AU$2.40B | 4.72 | 6.69% | 6.14% | -9.63% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
AU:GMG
Goodman Group
25.08
-3.84
-13.29%
AU:CHC
Charter Hall Group
18.47
2.07
12.59%
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Dexus
5.92
-0.92
-13.44%
AU:GPT
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4.54
0.29
6.87%
AU:SGP
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4.29
-0.49
-10.23%
AU:CLW
Charter Hall Long WALE REIT
3.35
-0.14
-4.04%
Goodman Group Corporate Events
Goodman director Mark Johnson lifts indirect stake in GMG securities
Mar 19, 2026
Goodman Group has disclosed a change in the indirect holdings of director Mark Johnson in GMG stapled securities. The update, lodged under ASX listing rule 3.19A.2, details movements in securities held through investment and superannuation structu...
Goodman Director Mark Johnson Increases Indirect Stake via On-Market Purchase
Feb 27, 2026
Goodman Group has disclosed a change in director Mark Johnson’s indirect interest in the company’s stapled securities. The filing details that Johnson, through investment and superannuation structures in which he holds a beneficial int...
Goodman dispatches 15-cent half-year distribution to securityholders
Feb 25, 2026
Goodman Group has confirmed that its distribution for the six months ended 31 December 2025 has been dispatched to securityholders, set at 15.00 cents per security. Taxation component details are available via a prior ASX announcement or on the co...
Goodman Group details tax components of 15-cent half-year distribution
Feb 22, 2026
Goodman Group has declared a distribution of 15.00 cents per security for the half year to 31 December 2025, with payment scheduled for 25 February 2026, and detailed the tax components for investors, including capital gains, interest, foreign inc...
Goodman Group Reports Lapse of 171,380 Performance Rights
Jan 9, 2026
Goodman Group has notified the market that 171,380 GMGAM performance rights have lapsed as of 31 December 2025 after the conditions attached to those rights were not satisfied or became incapable of being met. The cessation of these securities mod...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.