Goodman Group (GMG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$57.60B
• Dividend Yield: 1.02%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.83M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.43
• Revenue Growth: 16.87%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: AU
• Employees: 900
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.58
• Shares Outstanding: 2,044,793,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,957,829
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,826,034
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.90
• Price to Sales (P/S): 30.65
• P/FCF Ratio: 70.96
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$36.18
• Price Target Upside: 33.31% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.3
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$3.15B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$33.00 ▲(21.59% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/19/26

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial strength and a constructive earnings outlook (reiterated FY26 EPS growth guidance, expanding WIP, low gearing/liquidity). This is offset by premium valuation (high P/E, low yield) and only moderate technical momentum, plus cash flow/revenue trend concerns.

Positive Factors

Strong balance sheet and liquidity

Goodman’s low gearing and sizable liquidity provide durable financial flexibility to fund development pipelines, support joint ventures and withstand market cycles. This reduces refinancing risk, preserves capacity to recycle capital and allows disciplined deployment without immediate equity dilution.

Scale in funds management and AUM

A large external AUM base creates a recurring, scalable fee franchise that earns base management and potential performance fees. Managing third‑party capital lets Goodman grow fee income and earn fees while limiting balance sheet exposure, supporting steadier long‑term earnings.

Deep development pipeline and data‑centre power bank

A rising WIP and enlarged powered land bank (6GW) create a multi‑year earnings runway via development margins, rental conversions and fee opportunities. Large, higher‑yielding data‑centre projects can sustainably boost returns if executed with partners and leased over time.

Negative Factors

Volatile transactional/performance income

A sharp drop in transactional and performance management income highlights reliance on lumpy deal activity for a material part of earnings. Such volatility undermines revenue predictability, can swing reported profits and makes forward cash flows more dependent on market transaction timing.

Weak cash conversion / negative FCF growth

Negative free cash flow growth and sub‑par conversion of net income to operating cash reduce internal funding for capex, development and distributions. Over time this increases dependence on partner capital or external financing, constraining self‑funded expansion and elevating funding cost sensitivity.

Low pre‑leasing risk on large data‑centre WIP

Many data‑centre projects are at early stages with limited pre‑commitments, creating leasing and vacancy risk given long build cycles. If demand softens or starts are delayed, income conversion and development returns could be pushed out or compressed, pressuring margins and cash timing.

Goodman Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Goodman Group is an integrated property group with operations throughout Australia, New Zealand, Asia, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, North America and Brazil. Goodman Group, comprised of the stapled entities Goodman Limited, Goodman Industrial Trust and Goodman Logistics (HK) Limited, is the largest industrial property group listed on the Australian Securities Exchange and one of the largest listed specialist investment managers of industrial property and business space globally. Goodman's global property expertise, integrated own+develop+manage customer service offering and significant investment management platform ensures it creates innovative property solutions that meet the individual requirements of its customers, while seeking to deliver long-term returns for investors.

How the Company Makes Money

Goodman Group generates revenue primarily through the leasing of its industrial properties to tenants, which include logistics operators and retailers. The company earns rental income from long-term leases and has a diversified portfolio that mitigates risk. Additionally, GMG makes money through property development, where it builds new facilities and sells or leases them upon completion, often at a premium due to their strategic locations and modern specifications. The firm also engages in asset management services for third-party investors, earning management fees and performance-based incentives. Key partnerships with major logistics companies and retail giants bolster GMG's revenue streams, while its focus on sustainable development and innovative property solutions enhances its competitive edge in the market.

Goodman Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and balance sheet strength are solid (strong margins and low leverage), but revenue has been declining and cash conversion/free cash flow trends are weak, which tempers overall financial quality.

Income Statement

Goodman Group's income statement shows a mixed performance. The gross profit margin is strong, indicating efficient cost management. However, the revenue growth rate has been negative in recent years, which is a concern. The net profit margin is high, but this is partly due to a significant net income in 2025, which may not be sustainable. Overall, profitability is strong, but the declining revenue trend needs attention.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating prudent leverage management. The return on equity has been positive, although it has fluctuated over the years. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a strong capital base. Overall, the balance sheet is robust, with manageable debt levels and solid equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals some challenges. The free cash flow growth rate has been negative recently, indicating potential cash generation issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is below 1, suggesting that not all net income is being converted into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is close to 1, indicating efficient cash usage. Overall, cash flow management requires improvement to ensure sustainable cash generation.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.44B	2.21B	1.92B	1.96B	2.06B	1.87B
Gross Profit	891.10M	1.42B	1.37B	1.33B	1.45B	947.90M
EBITDA	2.08B	2.18B	22.80M	462.10M	688.20M	515.00M
Net Income	1.69B	1.67B	-98.90M	1.56B	3.41B	2.31B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	30.32B	31.57B	23.83B	24.07B	21.47B	16.89B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.96B	3.96B	1.79B	1.36B	1.06B	920.40M
Total Debt	4.22B	5.28B	3.72B	3.36B	2.90B	2.15B
Total Liabilities	6.57B	8.26B	6.29B	6.05B	5.04B	3.73B
Stockholders Equity	23.75B	23.31B	17.54B	18.02B	16.42B	13.16B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.17B	953.20M	1.18B	1.27B	835.10M	1.11B
Operating Cash Flow	1.21B	959.60M	1.19B	1.28B	841.00M	1.11B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.13B	-3.48B	-688.20M	-716.00M	-1.00B	-549.90M
Financing Cash Flow	2.44B	4.60B	-52.40M	-308.80M	299.70M	-1.35B

Goodman Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 27.14
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:GMG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 27.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.74, below the 50-day MA of 30.26, and below the 200-day MA of 32.30, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.67 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.16 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:GMG.

Goodman Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SGP	75 Outperform	AU$11.87B	11.82	7.99%	4.29%	4.75%	170.39%
CHC	70 Outperform	AU$9.93B	10.60	24.58%	1.97%	15.06%	47.66%
GPT	69 Neutral	AU$9.31B	10.58	3.56%	4.41%	12.66%	―
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
GMG	65 Neutral	AU$57.60B	19.16	7.99%	1.02%	16.87%	―
DXS	56 Neutral	AU$6.94B	5.34	1.32%	5.32%	4.52%	―
CLW	54 Neutral	AU$2.64B	4.72	3.57%	6.14%	-9.63%	―

Goodman Group Corporate Events

Goodman Group Reports Lapse of 171,380 Performance Rights

Goodman Group has notified the market that 171,380 GMGAM performance rights have lapsed as of 31 December 2025 after the conditions attached to those rights were not satisfied or became incapable of being met. The cessation of these securities modestly reduces the company’s outstanding equity-based incentive pool and may slightly affect future dilution from employee or executive incentive plans, but does not alter the group’s existing issued capital structure in a material way.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMG) stock is a Buy with a A$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Goodman Group stock, see the AU:GMG Stock Forecast page.

CPP Investments and Goodman in A$14bn European Data Centre Push

Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and Goodman Group have formed a 50/50 European data centre partnership valued at A$14 billion (€8 billion), with an initial capital commitment of A$3.9 billion (€2.2 billion) to develop a portfolio of large-scale facilities in Frankfurt, Amsterdam and Paris. The Goodman European Data Centre Development Partnership will initially comprise four projects in Europe’s key FLAP markets, offering a combined 435 MW of primary power and 282 MW of IT load with secured power, planning approvals and advanced site works, reinforcing both partners’ strategic push into digital infrastructure and positioning Goodman as a major developer for accelerating cloud and AI-related capacity demand in Europe, while marking CPP Investments’ first dedicated data centre platform in the region.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMG) stock is a Buy with a A$41.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Goodman Group stock, see the AU:GMG Stock Forecast page.

Goodman Group Announces Dividend Distribution for 2025

Goodman Group has announced a dividend distribution of AUD 0.15 per fully paid ordinary/unit stapled security, with the ex-date set for December 30, 2025, and the record date on December 31, 2025. The payment will be made on February 25, 2026, reflecting the company’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its investors, which may positively impact its market position and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMG) stock is a Buy with a A$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Goodman Group stock, see the AU:GMG Stock Forecast page.