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Centuria Industrial REIT
(Sydney:CIP)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
AU$3.50
▲(9.03% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/11/26
Strong valuation and positive earnings momentum drive the score, supported by solid financials; technicals neutral and cash flow softening are secondary drags.
Positive Factors
Strong leasing momentum and high occupancy
Sustained leasing of ~11% of GLA and near-full occupancy materially raises recurring rental income and reduces vacancy risk. High tenancy and meaningful re-leasing activity improve WALE and tenancy quality, supporting durable FFO and distribution stability over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Interest-rate sensitivity and higher interest expense
Elevated financing costs and sensitivity to rate moves directly compress distributable income. Even with hedges, a material portion of debt is exposed to market rates and higher sustained rates would erode FFO margins, constrain cash available for distributions and development over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong leasing momentum and high occupancy
Sustained leasing of ~11% of GLA and near-full occupancy materially raises recurring rental income and reduces vacancy risk. High tenancy and meaningful re-leasing activity improve WALE and tenancy quality, supporting durable FFO and distribution stability over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$1.88B
Dividend Yield5.58%
Average Volume (3M)1.86M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.7
Beta (1Y)0.46
Revenue Growth2.44%
EPS Growth42.65%
CountryAU
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Industrial
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.22
Shares Outstanding624,388,060
10 Day Avg. Volume1,461,749
30 Day Avg. Volume1,857,496
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)0.80
Price to Sales (P/S)8.49
P/FCF Ratio20.66
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$3.38Price Target Upside5.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$218.25M
Centuria Industrial REIT Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP) stands as Australia's foremost pure-play industrial real estate investment trust, holding a distinguished position within the S&P/ASX 200 Index. Its portfolio comprises premium industrial properties strategically sit...
How the Company Makes Money
CIP makes money primarily by earning rental income from tenants that lease space in its industrial properties. Lease contracts generally specify base rent payments and may include contractual rent escalations (e.g., periodic increases) and recover...
Centuria Industrial REIT Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational momentum: robust leasing (144,000 sqm), significant re-leasing spreads (44%), a $75m valuation uplift, upgraded FFO guidance ($0.182–$0.185) and positive capital management actions (refinancing, lowered margins, exchangeable notes at 3.5%, buyback activity). At the same time, the business faces headwinds from higher interest expense, a portion of the portfolio being under-rented (c.20%), a near-term FFO drag from vacancy/downtime (~$0.02 per unit), a persistent ~20% trading discount to NTA, and modestly higher gearing. Management highlighted material upside opportunities (under-renting capture, data center optionality and development pipeline) and confidence in funding those via selective sales or buybacks. Overall, positive operational and valuation momentum outweighs the noted challenges, but capital and interest-rate sensitivity remain key risks to monitor.Positive Updates
Strong Leasing Activity and Occupancy
Completed ~144,000 sqm of leasing (~11% of portfolio GLA) in HY26, driving average re-leasing spreads of 44% and increasing portfolio occupancy to 95.7%. Melbourne-specific leasing of ~80,000 sqm (~20% by area) lifted Melbourne occupancy to ~99%.
Negative Updates
Higher Interest Expense and Cost of Debt
Total interest expense increased by ~$4.0m to $32.2m in the half. Forecast average all-in cost of debt for FY26 is 4.9%. Management noted sensitivity where a 50 bps interest move could impact FY26 earnings by ~$0.01–$0.02 per unit.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Leasing Activity and Occupancy
Completed ~144,000 sqm of leasing (~11% of portfolio GLA) in HY26, driving average re-leasing spreads of 44% and increasing portfolio occupancy to 95.7%. Melbourne-specific leasing of ~80,000 sqm (~20% by area) lifted Melbourne occupancy to ~99%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Centuria upgraded CIP’s FY26 FFO guidance to $0.182–$0.185 per unit and reiterated distribution guidance of $0.168 per unit; HY26 delivered NPI of $101.2m (+$5m), like‑for‑like NOI +5.1%, occupancy 95.7% (Melbourne ~99%), and ~144,000 sqm leased (~11% of portfolio GLA) generating average re‑leasing spreads of 44% (ex‑cold storage higher) with average tenancy ~7,800 sqm. Management estimates the portfolio is ~20% under‑rented on average (c.60% of expiries to FY29 are under‑rented), with vacancy/downtime reducing FY26 FFO by ~$0.02/unit; valuations rose by $75m (weighted avg cap rate 5.81%) while portfolio value is ~45% below replacement cost. Capital management highlights include $450m of debt refinanced with margins tightened ~10–20bps (all‑in margin ~120bps vs prior ~130–140bps), weighted average debt maturity extended to ~4 years, forecast all‑in cost of debt ~4.9% for FY26, interest expense $32.2m, ~77% of debt hedged, a new $325m exchangeable note at 3.5% coupon (conversion price $4), ~$408m undrawn capacity post‑period, a $60m buyback (≈$36m executed) and ~$270m of divestments since FY23 at ~8% premium—management says improved leasing momentum and data‑center optionality could materially lift earnings and value, noting the stock trades at ~20% discount to NTA.Centuria Industrial REIT Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
71
Positive
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 236.04M | 233.32M | 227.93M | 228.61M | 205.36M | 160.36M |
| Gross Profit | 183.00M | 210.29M | 204.84M | 204.40M | 182.89M | 146.24M |
| EBITDA | 174.49M | 192.03M | 150.37M | 150.21M | 135.05M | 111.80M |
| Net Income | 139.39M | 133.06M | 48.15M | -76.61M | 367.48M | 611.24M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.97B | 3.93B | 3.88B | 3.91B | 4.15B | 3.11B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 19.80M | 15.04M | 16.54M | 20.87M | 26.60M | 105.54M |
| Total Debt | 1.42B | 1.36B | 1.33B | 1.29B | 1.37B | 933.28M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.51B | 1.44B | 1.43B | 1.40B | 1.46B | 983.56M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.47B | 2.49B | 2.46B | 2.51B | 2.69B | 2.12B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 85.17M | 95.88M | 95.54M | 14.16M | 111.93M | 83.67M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 85.17M | 95.88M | 95.54M | 97.60M | 111.93M | 83.67M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -52.84M | -6.88M | -40.12M | 83.45M | -822.09M | -851.57M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -36.40M | -90.49M | -59.76M | -186.79M | 631.22M | 856.37M |
Centuria Industrial REIT Technical Analysis
Neutral
3.21
Price Trends
2.99
Positive
2.95
Positive
3.08
Negative
Market Momentum
0.01
Negative
51.59
Neutral
48.32
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:CIP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.21 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.01, above the 50-day MA of 2.99, and above the 200-day MA of 3.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:CIP.
Centuria Industrial REIT Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | AU$1.88B | 13.68 | 5.63% | 4.85% | 2.44% | 42.65% | |
73 Outperform | AU$60.87B | 35.87 | 7.19% | 1.05% | 1.76% | 73.69% | |
72 Outperform | AU$3.05B | 8.46 | 11.25% | 4.87% | 7.04% | 11.89% | |
71 Outperform | AU$1.63B | 8.40 | 21.02% | 6.30% | -0.79% | 54.01% | |
70 Outperform | AU$768.72M | 10.42 | 7.91% | 6.83% | -6.09% | 41.37% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
45 Neutral | AU$1.68B | 45.88 | 1.57% | 8.60% | -0.81% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
AU:CIP
Centuria Industrial REIT
3.03
-0.10
-3.23%
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29.95
-5.13
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AU:WPR
Waypoint REIT Ltd.
2.51
0.13
5.24%
AU:GOZ
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2.24
-0.08
-3.49%
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3.91
0.46
13.20%
AU:DXI
Dexus Industria REIT
2.44
-0.29
-10.59%
Centuria Industrial REIT Corporate Events
Centuria Industrial REIT adjusts exchangeable notes’ conversion price after distribution
Jul 1, 2026
CIP Funding Pty Limited, a subsidiary of Centuria Property Funds No. 2 Limited and issuer for Centuria Industrial REIT, has adjusted the exchange price of its A$325 million 3.50% exchangeable notes due 2030. Following an extraordinary distribution...
Centuria Industrial REIT releases Investor Day presentation to market
Jun 16, 2026
Centuria Industrial REIT has released the presentation it will use for its Investor Day in Sydney, providing the market with updated information on its operations and portfolio. The event underscores the REIT’s engagement with investors as i...
Centuria Industrial REIT Sets June Quarter Distribution at 4.20 Cents
Jun 4, 2026
Centuria Industrial REIT has declared a distribution of 4.20 cents per unit for the quarter ending 30 June 2026, maintaining its focus on providing regular income from its industrial property portfolio. The Distribution Reinvestment Plan will rema...
Centuria Industrial REIT Declares Quarterly Distribution for June 2026 Period
Jun 4, 2026
Centuria Industrial REIT has declared a quarterly distribution of AUD 0.042 per fully paid ordinary unit for the period ending 30 June 2026. The units will trade ex-distribution on 29 June, with a record date of 30 June and payment scheduled for 1...
Centuria Industrial REIT boosts returns with premium asset sales and development gains
May 11, 2026
Centuria Industrial REIT reported strong Q3 FY26 activity, highlighting $188 million of property divestments achieved at an average 17% premium to book value, which will cut gearing by about 3%. The trust continues to optimise its portfolio by rec...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.