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Change Financial Ltd (AU:CCA)
ASX:CCA

Change Financial Ltd (CCA) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:CCA

Change Financial Ltd

(Sydney:CCA)

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Neutral 54 (OpenAI - 5.2)
,
Neutral 54 (OpenAI - 5.2)
,
Neutral 54 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.10
▲(38.57% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:01/28/26
The score is primarily held back by weak financial performance, with ongoing losses and pressured margins despite revenue growth and improved free cash flow. Technicals are a positive offset, as the stock trades above key moving averages with supportive momentum indicators. Valuation is also a constraint due to the negative P/E and lack of dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth
Sustained top-line expansion (12.43% year) indicates durable demand for the company’s services and successful client acquisition or retention. Over 2–6 months this supports reinvestment in product and sales, helping scale gross volumes even if margins need improvement.
Low leverage / strong capital structure
Very low debt levels provide financial flexibility and resilience. With minimal leverage the company can fund growth initiatives, absorb shocks, or pursue M&A without near-term refinancing risk, preserving strategic optionality over the medium term.
Improving free cash flow
Material improvement in free cash flow and an FCF-to-net-income ratio near one point to better cash conversion despite losses. This durable improvement strengthens liquidity, reduces reliance on external funding, and supports operational continuity and reinvestment.
Negative Factors
Negative profitability & ROE
Ongoing operating losses and negative ROE signal the business is not yet generating shareholder returns. Persisting unprofitability limits capacity to self-fund growth, weakens investor confidence in long-term returns, and may force strategic trade-offs in investment.
Declining gross margin
A falling gross margin points to rising unit costs or pricing pressure that erodes the core economics of offerings. Without structural cost improvements or pricing power, margin deterioration can persist and constrain operating leverage as revenue scales.
Weak operating cash conversion
Low operating cash conversion suggests earnings quality issues or heavy working-capital demands. Combined with net losses, weak OCF reduces internal funding for capex or sales investment and increases reliance on financing, limiting sustainable growth execution.

Change Financial Ltd (CCA) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Change Financial Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionChange Financial Ltd (CCA) is a financial technology company specializing in providing innovative payment solutions and banking services. The company operates primarily in the fintech sector, offering a range of products that include digital banking services, payment processing, and financial management tools. CCA aims to enhance the customer experience by leveraging technology to provide seamless and efficient financial transactions for both consumers and businesses.
How the Company Makes Moneynull

Change Financial Ltd Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial inflection: record revenue, expanding recurring revenue (70%), improving EBITDA (two consecutive quarters of USD 900K and USD 1.8M for H1), upgraded FY '26 guidance, and continued PaaS client wins and onboarding. Key risks discussed were timing mismatches between active cards and transaction revenue (notably related to prepaid growth and late-quarter Sharesies card deliveries), reliance on one-off services for part of the strong H1, lumpy B2B sales cycles, and near-term cash timing sensitivity despite a healthy cash position. Overall the positives (strong growth, margin improvement, upgraded guidance and healthy pipeline) materially outweigh the timing and scaling challenges.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Q2 revenue of USD 4.7M, up 34% year-over-year; year-to-date revenue up 29% YoY; rolling 3-year revenue CAGR of 25%; company on track to have doubled revenue over the last 3 years by end of FY '26.
Strong Recurring Revenue Base
Recurring revenue represented ~70% of total revenue; recurring revenues for the quarter totaled USD 3.3M, providing a stable foundation for growth and guidance confidence.
Improving Profitability and EBITDA Inflection
Underlying EBITDA for the quarter was USD 900K and USD 1.8M for H1; FY '25 full-year underlying EBITDA was USD 200K (maiden positive result), showing material operating leverage and margin improvement.
Upgraded FY '26 Guidance
Revenue guidance upgraded to USD 17.5M–18.5M; underlying EBITDA guidance upgraded to USD 3.1M–3.8M (midpoint ~15% increase vs prior guidance); company maintained guidance to be cash flow positive for the year.
PaaS (Vertexon) Driving Growth
Vertexon (PaaS) accounted for 85% of group revenue YTD; PaaS revenues from Australia and New Zealand clients up 19% YoY; more than 110,000 active cards in ANZ contributing to scale opportunities.
Successful New Client Launches and Pipeline
Sharesies launch contributed to active card growth (over ~10,000 active Sharesies cards late in quarter); two additional contracted PaaS clients onboarding with one expected to go live imminently; 12+ PaaS clients signed since platform launch and expanding pipeline in Australia and New Zealand.
Healthy Cash and Receivables Position
Cash on hand USD 2.6M plus USD 1.4M in cash-back security deposits; cash receipts for the quarter USD 3.9M (up 4% YoY); accounts receivable USD 3.0M (about USD 900K higher YoY) with management explaining timing shifts around festive-season collections.
One-off Revenue Contribution and Strong H1 for Services
One-off revenue (licenses and professional services) contributed USD 1.4M in the quarter and produced the best half in company history for one-off revenue, helping drive H1 results while the company fills the pipeline for H2.
Operational Improvements and Cost Reductions
Cost reductions from the U.S. exit and a stable fixed cost base have materially improved bottom-line performance and enabled scaling without proportionate fixed-cost increases.
Product Ownership and Market Position
Both Vertexon and PaySim are proprietary, in-house platforms; PaySim remains the default testing standard for EFTPOS in Australia and has blue-chip clients, supporting global sellability.
Negative Updates
Transaction Volumes Lag Active Card Growth
Active cards rose to over 110,000 in ANZ, but transaction volumes and transactional revenue have not scaled at the same rate—partly due to prepaid mix and Sharesies cards being delivered late in the quarter, creating a timing gap between active cards and transactions.
Higher Prepaid Card Mix Changes Revenue Profile
Prepaid cards increased from 20% of active cards at June 2025 to 41% at December 2025; prepaid cards typically generate lower transaction activity than debit cards, which may reduce per-card transactional revenue until the mix shifts back toward higher-activity debit use.
Timing Differences in Cash Collections
Cash receipts grew only 4% YoY while revenue grew 34% YoY, and accounts receivable rose to USD 3.0M (about USD 900K higher YoY) due to timing of client payments around the prior-year festive season, creating near-term working capital timing risk.
Reliance on One-off Revenue Creates Potential Volatility
Licenses and professional services (one-off revenue) were important contributors to the strong H1 results (USD 1.4M in Q2), indicating some reliance on lumpy revenues that could cause volatility if deal timing shifts.
Not Yet at Scale and Lumpy Sales Cycle
Management emphasized 'scaling, not at scale'—the business remains subject to long, lumpy B2B sales cycles and timing uncertainty for large client signings, which can make growth stepping stones irregular quarter-to-quarter.
Modest Cash Buffer and Seasonal Reliance
Cash position of USD 2.6M (plus deposits) and only cash-flow-neutral H1 increases reliance on stronger H2 seasonality for cash flow; limited near-term cash cushion if collections or timing deteriorate.
Rising COGS and Short-term Cash Outflows
Operating cash payments increased ~5% YoY driven by higher COGS from increased transactional activity and FY '25 bonus payments, which slightly offset cash flow improvements.
Company Guidance
Change upgraded FY‑26 guidance to revenue of USD 17.5–18.5 million and underlying EBITDA of USD 3.1–3.8 million (roughly a 15% uplift at the midpoint versus prior guidance), and reiterated it expects to be cash‑flow positive for the year. Management said the upgrade is backed by a strong H1: Q2 revenue of USD 4.7m (up 34% YoY), YTD revenue up 29% YoY, H1 underlying EBITDA of USD 1.8m (two consecutive quarters of USD 0.9m), recurring revenue of ~70% (recurring revenue for the quarter USD 3.3m) and one‑off revenue of USD 1.4m in the quarter; the rolling 3‑year revenue CAGR is 25% and the company remains on track to have doubled revenue over three years by end FY‑26. Cash metrics cited include cash receipts of USD 3.9m (up 4% YoY), cash on hand USD 2.6m plus USD 1.4m in security deposits, and accounts receivable of USD 3.0m, with management expecting stronger H2 cash flows due to seasonal billing.

Change Financial Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Revenue grew 12.43% and free cash flow improved, supported by low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.06). Offsetting this, profitability remains weak with negative net profit/EBIT margins and negative return on equity, and gross margin declined year over year.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Change Financial Ltd has shown a positive revenue growth rate of 12.43% in the latest year, indicating a growing business. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin has decreased from the previous year, suggesting increased cost pressures.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The company maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06, indicating conservative leverage and financial stability. However, the negative return on equity highlights ongoing profitability challenges. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a solid capital structure.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
There is a significant improvement in free cash flow growth, which is a positive sign for liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, indicating that cash generation from operations is not yet robust. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is close to 1, suggesting efficient cash management relative to net losses.
BreakdownTTMJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue13.36M15.02M10.51M8.71M8.32M6.31M
Gross Profit3.28M4.09M3.89M2.42M695.31K564.95K
EBITDA-2.14M-785.36K-621.17K-1.26M-2.53M-2.31M
Net Income-2.77M-1.94M-2.57M-2.92M-3.77M-3.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets15.96M18.03M12.94M15.30M10.35M12.72M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.49M3.91M2.59M5.35M1.50M4.02M
Total Debt293.26K424.06K156.93K136.25K1.29M561.76K
Total Liabilities8.98M11.04M7.07M6.86M7.00M5.70M
Stockholders Equity6.98M6.99M5.88M8.44M3.34M7.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow229.74K747.41K-2.39M-3.12M-4.08M-3.02M
Operating Cash Flow294.78K795.05K-464.97K-1.59M-2.64M-2.32M
Investing Cash Flow-2.15M-2.05M-2.09M-1.80M-1.26M-5.17M
Financing Cash Flow2.78M2.76M-102.15K6.89M710.79K7.56M

Change Financial Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price0.07
Price Trends
50DMA
0.08
Positive
100DMA
0.07
Positive
200DMA
0.08
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
<0.01
Positive
RSI
47.24
Neutral
STOCH
30.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:CCA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.09, below the 50-day MA of 0.08, and below the 200-day MA of 0.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:CCA.

Change Financial Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
61
Neutral
AU$104.28M-40.645.74%11.72%
61
Neutral
AU$34.58M-77.514.70%4.66%14.59%-11.13%
56
Neutral
AU$70.01M38.885.67%11.90%42.11%
54
Neutral
AU$57.31M-31.40-24.79%43.85%29.03%
46
Neutral
AU$36.07M8.18-1.89%3.45%2.06%-277.78%
45
Neutral
AU$242.83M-22.24-45.17%-5.87%-540.18%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:CCA
Change Financial Ltd
0.08
0.03
45.61%
AU:EML
EML Payments
0.63
-0.31
-32.80%
AU:CCG
Comms Group Ltd. (Australia)
0.07
0.02
37.50%
AU:KYP
CV Check Ltd
0.16
-0.01
-5.88%
AU:CCR
Credit Clear Limited
0.20
-0.02
-11.11%
AU:COS
Cosol Limited
0.19
-0.57
-75.00%

Change Financial Ltd Corporate Events

Change Financial Showcases Global Reach of Payments and Testing Platforms
Feb 25, 2026

Change Financial has highlighted its role as a provider of scalable, innovative payments-as-a-service and testing solutions, underpinned by two in-house technology platforms and key licences covering processing and issuing in Australia, New Zealand and globally. Its offerings, which include transaction processing for all major schemes, physical and digital cards, and ATM and POS emulation, now support more than 150 banks and fintechs in over 40 countries, reinforcing its position as a default standard for EFTPOS testing in Australia and a partner to several leading global digital payment companies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CCA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.08 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Change Financial Ltd stock, see the AU:CCA Stock Forecast page.

Change Financial Delivers Record H1 FY26 Revenue and First Half-Year Profit
Feb 25, 2026

Change Financial reported record first-half FY26 revenue of US$9.3 million, up 29%, driven by growth in its Vertexon PaaS and professional services, with 70% of revenue coming from recurring streams. The company’s PaaS platform is scaling, with more than 110,000 active cards and a major role as the largest non-bank debit card issuer in New Zealand, and it is now targeting similar client wins in Australia.

The group delivered underlying EBITDA of US$1.8 million and a maiden half-year net profit of US$0.6 million, supported by stable fixed costs and U.S. cost reductions that highlight emerging operating leverage. With neutral operating cash flow, no debt, cash of US$2.6 million and ongoing onboarding of new PaaS clients, Change has upgraded FY26 guidance, signalling growing financial momentum and a stronger competitive position in the payments technology market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CCA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.08 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Change Financial Ltd stock, see the AU:CCA Stock Forecast page.

Change Financial lodges 2026 half‑year report and Appendix 4D
Feb 25, 2026

Change Financial Limited has released its Appendix 4D and Half Year Report for the six months ended 31 December 2025, outlining its condensed consolidated financial statements, directors’ report and auditor’s review. The report package signals a routine but important disclosure of the group’s profit or loss, cash flows, financial position and changes in equity for stakeholders assessing the company’s performance and financial health over the period.

The documentation, which includes the directors’ declaration and an independent auditor’s review, provides formal assurance over the interim numbers and governance processes. While detailed figures are not included in the release text, the structured half‑year reporting underscores Change Financial’s compliance with market disclosure obligations and offers investors a basis for evaluating its operations and capital position heading into 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CCA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.08 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Change Financial Ltd stock, see the AU:CCA Stock Forecast page.

Change Financial to Release H1 FY26 Results and Host Investor Webinar
Feb 23, 2026

Change Financial Limited has announced it will publish its half-year financial results for the period ended 31 December 2025 on 26 February 2026. The company will also host a live webinar and Q&A session on the same day, led by CEO Tony Sheehan and Executive Director Tom Russell, giving investors an opportunity to engage directly with management and seek clarification on the company’s performance and outlook.

By scheduling a results webinar alongside the release, Change is signalling an emphasis on investor communication and transparency at a time when its scalable payments and card-issuing platform is used extensively by banks and fintechs globally. The event offers stakeholders timely insight into operational progress and strategic direction, which may influence market perception of the company’s growth trajectory in the competitive global payments and fintech testing markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CCA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.08 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Change Financial Ltd stock, see the AU:CCA Stock Forecast page.

Change Financial Showcases Scalable Payments Platforms in Q2 FY26 Investor Update
Jan 28, 2026

Change Financial Ltd has released its Q2 FY26 investor presentation highlighting its role as a payments-as-a-service and testing provider with two core proprietary platforms driving most of its revenue. The company emphasises its scalable, innovative offering that spans full payment simulation, transaction processing for all major schemes, physical and digital card issuing (including Apple Pay and Google Pay), and ATM/POS emulation, while leveraging its Mastercard and regulatory licences to rival major banks in a capital-efficient way and reinforcing its position as the default standard for EFTPOS testing in Australia with a growing global footprint among top-tier digital payment players.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CCA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.08 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Change Financial Ltd stock, see the AU:CCA Stock Forecast page.

Change Financial Posts Record Q2 Revenue as Vertexon PaaS Growth boosts Profitability
Jan 28, 2026

Change Financial reported a record revenue quarter for Q2 FY26, with revenue rising 34% year-on-year to US$4.7m and customer receipts reaching US$3.9m, while approximately 70% of year-to-date revenue came from recurring streams. The company delivered unaudited Underlying EBITDA of US$0.9m for the quarter and US$1.8m for the half, signalling an operating leverage inflection point, driven by growth in its Vertexon PaaS platform, which now supports more than 110,000 active revenue-generating cards, a 66% increase on the prior period. With new sales to both new and existing Vertexon and PaySim clients, including a new fintech client in the South Pacific and the onboarding of an embedded finance client expected to begin contributing in Q3 FY26, Change has upgraded its FY26 revenue and EBITDA expectations and ends the quarter with US$2.6m in cash and no debt, reinforcing its positioning for profitable growth in the second half of the financial year.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CCA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.08 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Change Financial Ltd stock, see the AU:CCA Stock Forecast page.

Change Financial Sets Date for Q2 FY26 Results and Investor Webinar
Jan 22, 2026

Change Financial Limited has scheduled the release of its Quarterly Activities Report and Appendix 4C cashflow statement for the three months to 31 December 2025 on 29 January 2026, and will host a live investor webinar and Q&A on the same day. The planned disclosure and investor engagement signal the company’s ongoing focus on transparency around its operating performance and cash position, providing shareholders with an opportunity to gain further insight into its progress in the competitive global payments and fintech market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CCA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Change Financial Ltd stock, see the AU:CCA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 28, 2026