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Change Financial Ltd (AU:CCA)
ASX:CCA

Change Financial Ltd (CCA) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:CCA

Change Financial Ltd

(Sydney:CCA)

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Neutral 54 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.08
▲(17.14% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:01/28/26
The score is primarily held back by weak financial performance, with ongoing losses and pressured margins despite revenue growth and improved free cash flow. Technicals are a positive offset, as the stock trades above key moving averages with supportive momentum indicators. Valuation is also a constraint due to the negative P/E and lack of dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Recurring transaction-fee business model
A transaction-fee and premium services model creates recurring, volume-linked revenue that scales with customer activity. Strategic partnerships with banks and fintechs extend distribution, enable cross-sell and lower customer acquisition costs, supporting durable revenue growth.
Conservative capital structure
Very low leverage preserves financial flexibility, reduces liquidity and refinancing risk, and allows management to invest in product development or absorb operating losses without immediate solvency pressure—important while profitability is being restored.
Improving free cash flow
Stronger free cash flow signals improving cash conversion and a reduced need for external funding. If sustained, this enhances the company's ability to self-fund strategic initiatives, partnerships and technology investment, supporting long-term operational resilience.
Negative Factors
Negative profitability and margin pressure
Persistent negative margins and a declining gross margin indicate structural cost or pricing pressure. Until margins recover, the business will struggle to convert revenue growth into sustainable profits, constraining reinvestment and long-term shareholder returns.
Negative return on equity
Negative ROE shows shareholder capital is not generating positive returns, undermining investor confidence and making capital raising harder or more dilutive. Improving operational profitability is required to restore ROE and long-term capital efficiency.
Weak operating cash generation
Low operating cash conversion suggests reported earnings (or improvements) are not fully translating into sustainable operational cash. This raises dependence on financing or one-time items and poses a risk to funding ongoing growth and product investment over the medium term.

Change Financial Ltd (CCA) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Change Financial Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionChange Financial Ltd (CCA) is a financial technology company specializing in providing innovative payment solutions and banking services. The company operates primarily in the fintech sector, offering a range of products that include digital banking services, payment processing, and financial management tools. CCA aims to enhance the customer experience by leveraging technology to provide seamless and efficient financial transactions for both consumers and businesses.
How the Company Makes MoneyChange Financial Ltd generates revenue primarily through transaction fees associated with its payment processing services. Every time a transaction is processed through its platform, CCA earns a percentage of the transaction amount. Additionally, the company offers premium services to businesses, such as customized payment solutions and analytics tools, which contribute to its revenue streams. Partnerships with financial institutions and other fintech companies also play a crucial role in expanding its market reach and driving revenue growth. The company may also explore subscription models for certain services, providing a steady income stream from clients seeking ongoing access to its advanced financial solutions.

Change Financial Ltd Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial inflection: record revenue, expanding recurring revenue (70%), improving EBITDA (two consecutive quarters of USD 900K and USD 1.8M for H1), upgraded FY '26 guidance, and continued PaaS client wins and onboarding. Key risks discussed were timing mismatches between active cards and transaction revenue (notably related to prepaid growth and late-quarter Sharesies card deliveries), reliance on one-off services for part of the strong H1, lumpy B2B sales cycles, and near-term cash timing sensitivity despite a healthy cash position. Overall the positives (strong growth, margin improvement, upgraded guidance and healthy pipeline) materially outweigh the timing and scaling challenges.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Q2 revenue of USD 4.7M, up 34% year-over-year; year-to-date revenue up 29% YoY; rolling 3-year revenue CAGR of 25%; company on track to have doubled revenue over the last 3 years by end of FY '26.
Strong Recurring Revenue Base
Recurring revenue represented ~70% of total revenue; recurring revenues for the quarter totaled USD 3.3M, providing a stable foundation for growth and guidance confidence.
Improving Profitability and EBITDA Inflection
Underlying EBITDA for the quarter was USD 900K and USD 1.8M for H1; FY '25 full-year underlying EBITDA was USD 200K (maiden positive result), showing material operating leverage and margin improvement.
Upgraded FY '26 Guidance
Revenue guidance upgraded to USD 17.5M–18.5M; underlying EBITDA guidance upgraded to USD 3.1M–3.8M (midpoint ~15% increase vs prior guidance); company maintained guidance to be cash flow positive for the year.
PaaS (Vertexon) Driving Growth
Vertexon (PaaS) accounted for 85% of group revenue YTD; PaaS revenues from Australia and New Zealand clients up 19% YoY; more than 110,000 active cards in ANZ contributing to scale opportunities.
Successful New Client Launches and Pipeline
Sharesies launch contributed to active card growth (over ~10,000 active Sharesies cards late in quarter); two additional contracted PaaS clients onboarding with one expected to go live imminently; 12+ PaaS clients signed since platform launch and expanding pipeline in Australia and New Zealand.
Healthy Cash and Receivables Position
Cash on hand USD 2.6M plus USD 1.4M in cash-back security deposits; cash receipts for the quarter USD 3.9M (up 4% YoY); accounts receivable USD 3.0M (about USD 900K higher YoY) with management explaining timing shifts around festive-season collections.
One-off Revenue Contribution and Strong H1 for Services
One-off revenue (licenses and professional services) contributed USD 1.4M in the quarter and produced the best half in company history for one-off revenue, helping drive H1 results while the company fills the pipeline for H2.
Operational Improvements and Cost Reductions
Cost reductions from the U.S. exit and a stable fixed cost base have materially improved bottom-line performance and enabled scaling without proportionate fixed-cost increases.
Product Ownership and Market Position
Both Vertexon and PaySim are proprietary, in-house platforms; PaySim remains the default testing standard for EFTPOS in Australia and has blue-chip clients, supporting global sellability.
Negative Updates
Transaction Volumes Lag Active Card Growth
Active cards rose to over 110,000 in ANZ, but transaction volumes and transactional revenue have not scaled at the same rate—partly due to prepaid mix and Sharesies cards being delivered late in the quarter, creating a timing gap between active cards and transactions.
Higher Prepaid Card Mix Changes Revenue Profile
Prepaid cards increased from 20% of active cards at June 2025 to 41% at December 2025; prepaid cards typically generate lower transaction activity than debit cards, which may reduce per-card transactional revenue until the mix shifts back toward higher-activity debit use.
Timing Differences in Cash Collections
Cash receipts grew only 4% YoY while revenue grew 34% YoY, and accounts receivable rose to USD 3.0M (about USD 900K higher YoY) due to timing of client payments around the prior-year festive season, creating near-term working capital timing risk.
Reliance on One-off Revenue Creates Potential Volatility
Licenses and professional services (one-off revenue) were important contributors to the strong H1 results (USD 1.4M in Q2), indicating some reliance on lumpy revenues that could cause volatility if deal timing shifts.
Not Yet at Scale and Lumpy Sales Cycle
Management emphasized 'scaling, not at scale'—the business remains subject to long, lumpy B2B sales cycles and timing uncertainty for large client signings, which can make growth stepping stones irregular quarter-to-quarter.
Modest Cash Buffer and Seasonal Reliance
Cash position of USD 2.6M (plus deposits) and only cash-flow-neutral H1 increases reliance on stronger H2 seasonality for cash flow; limited near-term cash cushion if collections or timing deteriorate.
Rising COGS and Short-term Cash Outflows
Operating cash payments increased ~5% YoY driven by higher COGS from increased transactional activity and FY '25 bonus payments, which slightly offset cash flow improvements.
Company Guidance
Change upgraded FY‑26 guidance to revenue of USD 17.5–18.5 million and underlying EBITDA of USD 3.1–3.8 million (roughly a 15% uplift at the midpoint versus prior guidance), and reiterated it expects to be cash‑flow positive for the year. Management said the upgrade is backed by a strong H1: Q2 revenue of USD 4.7m (up 34% YoY), YTD revenue up 29% YoY, H1 underlying EBITDA of USD 1.8m (two consecutive quarters of USD 0.9m), recurring revenue of ~70% (recurring revenue for the quarter USD 3.3m) and one‑off revenue of USD 1.4m in the quarter; the rolling 3‑year revenue CAGR is 25% and the company remains on track to have doubled revenue over three years by end FY‑26. Cash metrics cited include cash receipts of USD 3.9m (up 4% YoY), cash on hand USD 2.6m plus USD 1.4m in security deposits, and accounts receivable of USD 3.0m, with management expecting stronger H2 cash flows due to seasonal billing.

Change Financial Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Revenue grew 12.43% and free cash flow improved, supported by low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.06). Offsetting this, profitability remains weak with negative net profit/EBIT margins and negative return on equity, and gross margin declined year over year.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Change Financial Ltd has shown a positive revenue growth rate of 12.43% in the latest year, indicating a growing business. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin has decreased from the previous year, suggesting increased cost pressures.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The company maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06, indicating conservative leverage and financial stability. However, the negative return on equity highlights ongoing profitability challenges. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a solid capital structure.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
There is a significant improvement in free cash flow growth, which is a positive sign for liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, indicating that cash generation from operations is not yet robust. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is close to 1, suggesting efficient cash management relative to net losses.
BreakdownTTMJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue13.36M15.02M10.51M8.71M8.32M6.31M
Gross Profit3.28M4.09M3.89M2.42M695.31K564.95K
EBITDA-2.14M-785.36K-621.17K-1.26M-2.53M-2.31M
Net Income-2.77M-1.94M-2.57M-2.92M-3.77M-3.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets15.96M18.03M12.94M15.30M10.35M12.72M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.49M3.91M2.59M5.35M1.50M4.02M
Total Debt293.26K424.06K156.93K136.25K1.29M561.76K
Total Liabilities8.98M11.04M7.07M6.86M7.00M5.70M
Stockholders Equity6.98M6.99M5.88M8.44M3.34M7.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow229.74K747.41K-2.39M-3.12M-4.08M-3.02M
Operating Cash Flow294.78K795.05K-464.97K-1.59M-2.64M-2.32M
Investing Cash Flow-2.15M-2.05M-2.09M-1.80M-1.26M-5.17M
Financing Cash Flow2.78M2.76M-102.15K6.89M710.79K7.56M

Change Financial Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price0.07
Price Trends
50DMA
0.07
Positive
100DMA
0.07
Positive
200DMA
0.08
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
<0.01
Negative
RSI
69.65
Neutral
STOCH
81.02
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:CCA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.08, below the 50-day MA of 0.07, and below the 200-day MA of 0.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.02 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:CCA.

Change Financial Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
67
Neutral
AU$54.60M15.1310.79%4.66%14.59%-11.13%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
61
Neutral
AU$106.89M17.235.74%11.72%
56
Neutral
AU$74.39M44.744.26%11.90%42.11%
54
Neutral
AU$59.38M107.50-13.21%43.85%29.03%
46
Neutral
AU$40.44M67.27-1.89%3.45%2.06%-277.78%
45
Neutral
AU$240.82M-3.57-32.98%-5.87%-540.18%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:CCA
Change Financial Ltd
0.09
0.02
40.98%
AU:EML
EML Payments
0.62
-0.37
-37.37%
AU:CCG
Comms Group Ltd. (Australia)
0.07
0.02
42.31%
AU:KYP
CV Check Ltd
0.17
0.03
21.43%
AU:CCR
Credit Clear Limited
0.21
-0.06
-22.64%
AU:COS
Cosol Limited
0.30
-0.55
-64.71%

Change Financial Ltd Corporate Events

Change Financial Sets Date for Q2 FY26 Results and Investor Webinar
Jan 22, 2026

Change Financial Limited has scheduled the release of its Quarterly Activities Report and Appendix 4C cashflow statement for the three months to 31 December 2025 on 29 January 2026, and will host a live investor webinar and Q&A on the same day. The planned disclosure and investor engagement signal the company’s ongoing focus on transparency around its operating performance and cash position, providing shareholders with an opportunity to gain further insight into its progress in the competitive global payments and fintech market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CCA) stock is a Hold with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Change Financial Ltd stock, see the AU:CCA Stock Forecast page.

Change Financial Ltd Announces Director’s Interest Update
Nov 21, 2025

Change Financial Ltd announced a significant change in the interests of its director, Thomas Russell, with the issuance of 4,500,000 Performance Rights following the approval of Resolution 6 at the 2025 Annual General Meeting. This change reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning its leadership’s interests with its strategic objectives, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

Change Financial Issues 25.95 Million Unquoted Share Rights
Nov 21, 2025

Change Financial Limited announced the issuance of 25,950,000 unquoted share rights under an employee incentive scheme. This move is part of the company’s strategy to incentivize employees and align their interests with the company’s growth objectives, potentially impacting its operational dynamics and stakeholder engagement.

Change Financial Secures Shareholder Support at 2025 AGM
Nov 20, 2025

Change Financial Limited announced that all motions proposed at their 2025 Annual General Meeting were passed by poll, indicating strong shareholder support for the company’s strategic direction. The resolutions included the adoption of the remuneration report, election and re-election of directors, approval for issuing securities under the performance rights plan, and the grant of executive director performance rights. This outcome reflects confidence in the company’s leadership and its future plans, potentially enhancing its market position and stakeholder trust.

Change Financial Ltd Advances in Payment Solutions with Strong Q1 FY26 Performance
Oct 29, 2025

Change Financial Ltd’s Q1 FY26 investor presentation highlights their continued innovation in the payments sector, with a significant portion of revenue derived from digital and physical card issuing and transaction processing. The company’s strategic focus on leveraging proprietary technology to provide tailored solutions positions them strongly within the banking and payments ecosystem, potentially enhancing their market presence and stakeholder value.

Change Financial Ltd Reports Record Revenue and Strategic Growth in Q1 FY26
Oct 29, 2025

Change Financial Ltd reported a strong first quarter for FY26, with record revenue of US$4.6 million, marking a 25% increase from the previous year. The company achieved a positive net cash flow from operating activities and demonstrated significant operating leverage. New sales of Vertexon and PaySim licenses contributed to this growth, alongside a robust sales pipeline and ongoing product development. The company’s strategic focus on simplifying operations and targeting growth regions has resulted in increased client adoption and future revenue potential.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 28, 2026