BHP Group Ltd (BHP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $194.86B
• Dividend Yield: 4.93%
• Average Volume (3M): 8.61M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.02
• Revenue Growth: -2.47%
• EPS Growth: 57.01%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 38,962
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 60
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 1.55
• Shares Outstanding: 5,075,992,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,192,253
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,607,287
• PEG Ratio: 0.23
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.34
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $42.14
• Price Target Upside: 6.83% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 18

BHP Group Ltd exhibits a strong financial structure with robust cash flow and solid profitability, although there are concerns about declining net profit margins and revenue growth. The stock shows slight upward momentum and is valued attractively with a reasonable P/E ratio and high dividend yield, making it a potentially stable investment. However, investors should monitor profitability trends closely.

Positive Factors

Analyst Rating

Analyst maintains a Buy rating and a $47.50 per share price objective with 20% potential total shareholder return.

Financial Performance

BHP declared an interim dividend of 50 UScps, +2% versus consensus.

Production

Copper production is strong and performing well against expectations.

Negative Factors

Coal Production

Met coal production is weaker than expected due to high rainfall.

Cost Guidance

Increase in cost guidance for coal production due to weather challenges and operational issues.

Debt Levels

Net debt is expected to rise to around the top end of the target range following completion of the $2.0bn Vicuña transaction and payment of the 2H Samarco settlement obligations.

BHP Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, the rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally. The company operates through Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal segments. It engages in the mining of copper, silver, zinc, molybdenum, uranium, gold, iron ore, and metallurgical and energy coal. The company is also involved in mining, smelting, and refining of nickel; and potash development activities. In addition, it provides towing, freight, marketing and trading, marketing support, finance, administrative, and other services. The company was founded in 1851 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

BHP Group Ltd makes money through the exploration, production, and sale of natural resources. Its key revenue streams include the sale of iron ore, which is primarily used in steelmaking, and copper, essential for electrical equipment and construction. Additionally, BHP generates significant income from its petroleum operations, extracting and selling oil and gas. The company has strategic partnerships and long-term contracts with industrial clients worldwide, ensuring stable demand for its resources. Market prices for commodities and operational efficiency are significant factors influencing BHP's earnings, alongside its ongoing investments in technology and sustainability to enhance production capabilities.

BHP Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

BHP Group Ltd shows a strong financial profile with robust cash flow generation and solid profitability margins, though there is a noted decline in net profit margins and revenue growth. The balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage and strong equity. While the company demonstrates operational efficiency, attention to maintaining revenue and profit growth is advisable to sustain financial strength.

Income Statement

BHP Group Ltd demonstrated strong profitability with a Gross Profit Margin of 82.24% and an EBIT Margin of 31.29% in 2024. However, there was a noticeable decline in Net Profit Margin to 14.09% from 24.01% in 2023, indicating pressure on net profitability. Revenue growth was modest at 4.10% from 2023 to 2024, trailing previous years. While the EBITDA Margin remains robust at 41.98%, the slowdown in revenue growth and net income warrants attention.

Balance Sheet

BHP maintains a stable financial position with an Equity Ratio of 43.79% and moderate leverage, evidenced by a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.45. The Return on Equity was 17.62% in 2024, indicating efficient use of equity despite a decline from 29.04% in 2023. The company's strong equity base and manageable debt levels provide a solid foundation, although the slight decrease in ROE suggests reduced profitability.

Cash Flow

The company's cash flow remains robust, with a 2.00% growth in Free Cash Flow from 2023 to 2024. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 2.62 highlights strong operational efficiency. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.50 in 2024 indicates effective cash generation relative to net income. Overall, the cash flow performance is excellent, with consistent free cash flow growth and high operational cash inflow.

Breakdown
TTM	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
53.75B	56.03B	53.82B	65.10B	56.92B	42.93B
	Gross Profit
31.35B	46.10B	27.66B	39.71B	34.04B	20.43B
	EBIT
21.86B	17.54B	22.06B	33.02B	32.30B	15.72B
	EBITDA
25.57B	23.52B	27.12B	38.64B	30.23B	18.05B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
11.39B	7.90B	12.92B	22.74B	11.30B	7.96B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
16.60B	12.65B	12.46B	17.54B	15.25B	13.46B
	Total Assets
98.27B	102.36B	101.30B	95.17B	108.93B	105.73B
	Total Debt
15.96B	20.18B	22.34B	16.43B	20.98B	27.05B
	Net Debt
-200.00M	7.79B	9.92B	-808.00M	5.74B	13.62B
	Total Liabilities
41.28B	53.24B	52.77B	46.40B	53.32B	53.56B
	Stockholders Equity
56.09B	44.81B	44.50B	44.96B	51.26B	47.87B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
10.36B	11.85B	11.62B	26.06B	21.43B	8.07B
	Operating Cash Flow
20.10B	20.66B	18.70B	32.17B	27.23B	15.71B
	Investing Cash Flow
-9.35B	-8.76B	-13.06B	-6.96B	-7.84B	-7.62B
	Financing Cash Flow
-10.96B	-11.67B	-10.31B	-22.77B	-17.92B	-9.75B

BHP Group Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 39.45
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BHP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.67, above the 50-day MA of 38.04, and above the 200-day MA of 39.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.49 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:BHP.

BHP Group Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BHP	74 Outperform	$194.86B	11.27	26.20%	4.93%	-2.47%	57.01%
Sector *	49 Neutral	$1.99B	-1.09	-21.26%	3.60%	1.47%	-31.20%

BHP Group Ltd Corporate Events

BHP Group Director Increases Stake in Company Shares

BHP Group Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, with Dion Weisler acquiring 1,450 ordinary shares indirectly through Dish Nominees Pty Ltd, a private investment entity for the Weisler family. This on-market purchase increases Weisler’s indirect holdings, reflecting a strategic move that could signal confidence in the company’s future performance, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions and market positioning.

BHP Director Increases Stake with Additional Share Acquisition

BHP Group Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, with Ross McEwan acquiring an additional 10,000 ordinary shares in the company, bringing his total indirect holdings to 45,000 shares. This acquisition, conducted through an on-market purchase, reflects a notable increase in McEwan’s stake in the company, potentially signaling confidence in BHP’s future performance and stability, which could positively influence stakeholder sentiment.

BHP Group Issues Over 2 Million New Securities as Part of Employee Incentive Scheme

BHP Group Limited has announced the issuance of 2,091,047 ordinary fully paid securities, which will be quoted on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). This move is part of an employee incentive scheme, indicating BHP’s ongoing efforts to align employee interests with company performance. The issuance of these securities may enhance BHP’s market liquidity and reflects the company’s commitment to rewarding its workforce, potentially impacting its operational dynamics and stakeholder relations positively.

Ken MacKenzie Retires from BHP Group Board

Ken MacKenzie has retired from his role as an independent Non-executive Director of BHP Group Ltd as of March 31, 2025. This change in the board could influence the company’s governance and strategic direction, potentially impacting stakeholders and the company’s positioning in the resources sector.

BHP Group Updates Dividend Distribution Details

BHP Group Ltd announced an update to its previous dividend distribution notification, providing details on currency rates and conversions for AUD, GBP, and NZD. This update pertains to the dividend for the six-month period ending December 31, 2024, with key dates including a record date of March 7, 2025, and a payment date following shortly after. The announcement reflects BHP’s ongoing commitment to transparency and shareholder engagement, potentially impacting investor relations and market perceptions.

BHP Group Updates Dividend Distribution Details

BHP Group Ltd has updated its previous announcement regarding the dividend distribution for the period ending December 31, 2024. The update includes details on the ZAR currency rate and local currency conversion, with the record date set for March 7, 2025, and the ex-date on March 6, 2025. This announcement is crucial for stakeholders as it provides clarity on the financial aspects of the dividend distribution, potentially impacting investor decisions and market perceptions.

BHP CEO to Present at Global Metals and Mining Conference

BHP Group Ltd’s CEO, Mike Henry, is set to present at the Bank of America Securities 2025 Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference in Miami. The presentation will address key aspects of BHP’s operations and strategic positioning within the global mining sector. The event underscores BHP’s commitment to maintaining its leadership role in the industry, with potential implications for stakeholders and market dynamics.

BHP Director Christine O’Reilly Increases Stake in Company

BHP Group Limited announced a change in the director’s interest as Christine O’Reilly acquired an additional 1,200 ordinary shares indirectly through an on-market purchase. This update reflects the director’s increased stake in the company, reinforcing confidence in BHP’s market position and potential future growth.

BHP Director Increases Shareholdings with Significant On-Market Purchase

BHP Group Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically concerning Ross McEwan, who increased his indirect holdings in the company by acquiring 25,000 ordinary shares. The purchase was made on-market at a price of AUD 40.53 per share, bringing McEwan’s total indirect shareholding to 35,000 shares in BHP. This transaction reflects a significant investment by a key director, which could be interpreted as a positive signal to the market about the company’s future prospects.

BHP Group Successfully Prices US$3 Billion Bond Offer

BHP Group Limited has successfully priced a US$3.0 billion bond offer in the US market, which includes three tranches with varying tenors and fixed coupon rates. The proceeds from these bonds, issued by its subsidiary BHP Billiton Finance (USA) Limited, will be used for general corporate purposes, potentially enhancing the company’s financial flexibility and operational capabilities.

BHP Group Announces Dividend Distribution for H2 2024

BHP Group Limited has announced a dividend distribution of USD 0.50 per ordinary fully paid share, related to a six-month period ending December 31, 2024. The dividend will be paid on March 27, 2025, with a record date of March 7, 2025, and an ex-dividend date of March 6, 2025. This announcement reflects BHP’s commitment to returning value to shareholders and positions the company competitively within the mining sector, potentially impacting investor perceptions positively.

BHP Group Reports Robust Profit Growth Amidst Revenue Decline

BHP Group Ltd reported strong financial results for the half-year ending December 2024, with profit after taxation skyrocketing by 376% to $4.4 billion despite an 8% decline in revenue. The company declared an interim dividend of 50 US cents per share, amounting to $2.5 billion, reflecting its operational resilience amidst fluctuating market conditions. The period saw notable production gains, particularly a 10% increase in copper production and strategic investments in growth sectors like potash and copper, including the formation of a joint venture with Lundin Mining in Argentina. Additionally, BHP is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing global demand for metals driven by urbanization and technological advancements, underpinned by its robust balance sheet and commitment to sustainable practices.