BHP Group Ltd (BHP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$245.53B
• Dividend Yield: 3.75%
• Average Volume (3M): 11.62M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.18
• Revenue Growth: -6.74%
• EPS Growth: 15.92%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 38,962
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): 1.74
• Shares Outstanding: 5,078,913,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 12,894,620
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,622,220
• PEG Ratio: 0.96
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.65
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.39
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.20
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$51.98
• Price Target Upside: 3.78% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.59
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$56.43B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$61.00 ▲(21.78% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 02/05/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 02/05/26

The score is driven primarily by strong margins and returns with a stable balance sheet, supported by bullish technical trend signals. Offsetting factors are the declines in revenue and free cash flow growth, alongside a valuation that appears fair rather than compelling.

Positive Factors

Strong Profitability

Very high margins and a near-20% ROE indicate durable operational efficiency and strong cash generation capacity. Sustained margin levels support funding for capex, dividends and reinvestment, helping preserve returns through commodity cycles and underpinning long-term shareholder value.

Balance Sheet Strength

Moderate leverage with a solid equity base provides financial flexibility to fund projects, pursue growth options and absorb commodity volatility. A balanced capital structure reduces refinancing risk and supports disciplined investment without over-reliance on external funding.

Management Continuity

An internal CEO appointment preserves institutional knowledge and strategic continuity, lowering execution risk during transition. Craig’s operational experience across BHP’s regions should aid delivery of the company’s growth pipeline and maintain culture and capital allocation discipline.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue Growth

A negative revenue growth rate signals demand or volume pressures in key product lines. Persistent top-line decline can compress absolute profits over time, forcing reliance on margin improvements or asset sales to sustain returns, and may indicate structural weakness in end-markets.

Weakening Free Cash Flow Trend

A decline in free cash flow growth reduces the company’s ability to expand capex, maintain dividends, and pursue M&A without increasing leverage. Even with current FCF covering net income, a downward trend erodes financial flexibility and heightens sensitivity to adverse commodity shocks.

Commodity Price Cyclicality

BHP’s earnings are tightly linked to volatile commodity benchmarks and volume/quality swings. This structural exposure makes forecasting earnings and investment returns difficult, leaving cash flows and capital allocation plans exposed to prolonged commodity downturns despite operational strengths.

BHP Group Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, the rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally. The company operates through Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal segments. It engages in the mining of copper, silver, zinc, molybdenum, uranium, gold, iron ore, and metallurgical and energy coal. The company is also involved in mining, smelting, and refining of nickel; and potash development activities. In addition, it provides towing, freight, marketing and trading, marketing support, finance, administrative, and other services. The company was founded in 1851 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

BHP generates revenue primarily through the sale of its mineral and energy products. The company's revenue model is largely based on the extraction and production of commodities, which are then sold to various industries worldwide. Key revenue streams include iron ore sales, which contribute a substantial portion of the company's earnings, followed by copper, coal, and petroleum. BHP benefits from high demand for these commodities driven by industrial growth, particularly in emerging markets. Additionally, the company engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other mining and energy companies, which can enhance operational efficiencies and reduce costs. Factors such as global commodity prices, operational efficiency, and demand fluctuations significantly influence BHP's earnings.

BHP Group Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability (gross margin ~71.7%, EBIT ~38%, EBITDA ~50.3%) and solid ROE (~19.5%) support the score, but it is tempered by declining revenue growth (-4.62%) and weaker free cash flow growth (-10.32%). Leverage is moderate (debt-to-equity ~0.53) with a solid equity base (equity ratio ~42.5%).

Income Statement

BHP Group Ltd has shown a decline in revenue growth with a negative rate of -4.62% in the latest period, indicating a challenging market environment. However, the company maintains strong profitability with a gross profit margin of approximately 71.7% and a net profit margin of 17.6%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust at 38% and 50.3% respectively, showcasing operational efficiency despite revenue pressures.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.53, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity is strong at 19.5%, suggesting efficient use of equity capital to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 42.5%, highlighting a solid equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

BHP's cash flow statement shows a decline in free cash flow growth by -10.32%, which could be a concern for future investments and dividend payouts. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 2.07, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.03, reflecting adequate cash flow coverage of net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	54.50B	51.26B	56.03B	53.82B	65.10B	56.92B
Gross Profit	45.08B	36.73B	46.10B	27.66B	39.71B	34.04B
EBITDA	27.16B	25.77B	23.52B	28.61B	39.96B	30.23B
Net Income	10.35B	9.02B	7.90B	12.92B	30.90B	11.30B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	116.09B	108.79B	102.36B	101.30B	95.17B	108.93B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	13.82B	12.04B	12.65B	12.46B	17.54B	15.25B
Total Debt	31.55B	24.46B	20.18B	24.10B	16.79B	21.57B
Total Liabilities	60.59B	56.57B	53.24B	52.77B	46.40B	53.32B
Stockholders Equity	50.44B	46.23B	44.81B	44.50B	44.96B	51.26B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	10.17B	9.29B	11.85B	11.62B	26.06B	21.43B
Operating Cash Flow	19.92B	18.69B	20.66B	18.70B	32.17B	27.23B
Investing Cash Flow	-14.27B	-13.35B	-8.76B	-13.06B	-6.96B	-7.84B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.18B	-5.97B	-11.67B	-10.31B	-22.77B	-17.92B

BHP Group Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 50.09
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BHP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 50.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.86, below the 50-day MA of 50.46, and above the 200-day MA of 42.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.45 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.05 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:BHP.

BHP Group Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FMG	76 Outperform	AU$58.59B	5.80	18.83%	4.96%	-13.65%	-39.85%
RIO	74 Outperform	$207.22B	15.43	16.59%	3.93%	0.38%	-3.57%
BHP	71 Outperform	AU$245.53B	6.71	21.41%	3.75%	-6.74%	15.92%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
S32	59 Neutral	AU$18.12B	5.91	3.36%	2.67%	6.53%	―
MIN	58 Neutral	AU$10.09B	5.40	11.50%	―	-15.27%	-817.26%
ILU	43 Neutral	AU$2.71B	-8.61	-12.75%	1.04%	-4.84%	-30.61%

BHP Group Ltd Corporate Events

BHP Updates Dividend Details With Multi‑Currency Conversion Rates

BHP Group Ltd has issued an updated notification regarding its latest dividend for ordinary fully paid shares, relating to the six‑month period ended 31 December 2025. The update, dated 9 March 2026, revises the previous 2 March 2026 announcement to detail the AUD, GBP and NZD exchange rates and corresponding local currency conversions for the payout.

The dividend has a record date of 6 March 2026, with shares trading ex‑dividend from 5 March 2026, confirming the timetable for eligible shareholders. By clarifying multi‑currency payment details, BHP aims to provide greater transparency and certainty for investors in different markets, underscoring its role as a globally held stock with a wide international shareholder base.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BHP) stock is a Buy with a A$61.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BHP Group Ltd stock, see the AU:BHP Stock Forecast page.

BHP Updates Dividend Notice to Clarify South African Rand Conversion

BHP Group Limited has updated its previously announced dividend notification for its ordinary fully paid shares, relating to the six‑month period ended 31 December 2025. The update, dated 2 March 2026, advises changes tied to the South African rand currency rate and local currency conversion for this dividend.

The record date for eligible shareholders remains 6 March 2026, with an ex‑dividend date of 5 March 2026 for the distribution. While the operational and payout timing details are unchanged, the clarification of the ZAR conversion provides greater transparency for shareholders in South Africa and other markets transacting in that currency.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BHP) stock is a Buy with a A$65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BHP Group Ltd stock, see the AU:BHP Stock Forecast page.

BHP Lifts Copper Guidance on Record Output as Iron Ore and Coal Operations Hit New Highs

BHP reported a strong operational performance for the half year to 31 December 2025, highlighted by record copper and iron ore output at key assets and stable unit costs across the portfolio. Copper production guidance for FY26 has been raised for the group, Escondida and Antamina, supported by record concentrator throughput at Escondida and solid performance at Copper South Australia and Spence, enabling the company to better capture the benefit of sharply higher copper prices. Iron ore operations at WAIO achieved record first-half production and shipments, Samarco volumes rose following the restart of a second concentrator, and both steelmaking and energy coal output increased, although BMA now expects to operate at the lower end of its coal guidance due to geotechnical challenges. BHP also advanced its growth and decarbonisation initiatives, including progress on the Jansen potash project toward a mid-2027 start-up, regulatory and technical milestones for copper growth options in Argentina and Chile, an innovative US$2 billion infrastructure transaction over WAIO’s power network that strengthens balance sheet flexibility while retaining operational control, and trials of battery-electric haul trucks and locomotives in the Pilbara. The group flagged negative EBITDA contributions from its nickel and potash businesses, higher working capital and tax outflows, and net debt of US$14–15 billion, but enters the second half of FY26 with strong momentum and a clear pipeline aimed at materially increasing attributable copper production in the 2030s.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BHP) stock is a Buy with a A$55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BHP Group Ltd stock, see the AU:BHP Stock Forecast page.

BHP Lifts Jansen Potash Budget to US$8.4bn and Delays First Output to 2027

BHP has raised the total investment estimate for Stage 1 of its Jansen potash project in Canada to US$8.4 billion and pushed the first production date back to mid-2027, citing additional construction hours and materials, prior inflationary and cost escalation pressures, design changes and lower productivity. Despite the higher capital outlay and an elongated 11–15 year payback period, Jansen Stage 1 is 75% complete and still expected to produce around 4.15 million tonnes of potash annually, with strong projected EBITDA margins of about 63–64% supported by its low-cost profile; BHP has introduced a response plan to improve productivity and execution, will apply these lessons to Jansen Stage 2, and continues to view the multi-phase Jansen complex—ultimately targeting 16–17 Mtpa—as a core pillar of its long-term growth and its ambition to become a leading player in the global potash industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BHP) stock is a Buy with a A$55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BHP Group Ltd stock, see the AU:BHP Stock Forecast page.

BHP Reports Lapse of 88,844 Performance Rights After Conditions Not Met

BHP Group Ltd has notified the market that 88,844 performance rights (security code BHPAC) have lapsed as of 31 December 2025 because the conditions attached to these rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The cessation of these securities reflects an adjustment to BHP’s issued capital and indicates that certain performance hurdles under its incentive arrangements were not achieved, with modest implications for share-based remuneration structures but no direct operational impact disclosed.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BHP) stock is a Buy with a A$48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BHP Group Ltd stock, see the AU:BHP Stock Forecast page.

BHP Issues 16,492 New Ordinary Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Securities

BHP Group Limited has notified the market of the issue of 16,492 new ordinary fully paid shares following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted equity securities. The new shares, dated 31 December 2025, reflect routine equity-related activity that marginally increases the company’s share count and indicates ongoing utilisation of employee or incentive-based securities within BHP’s capital management framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BHP) stock is a Buy with a A$48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BHP Group Ltd stock, see the AU:BHP Stock Forecast page.

BHP Issues Nearly 4 Million Unquoted Performance Rights Under Incentive Scheme

BHP Group Limited has notified the market of the issue of 3,963,655 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, with an issue date of 31 December 2025. The new performance rights, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, form part of BHP’s ongoing equity-based remuneration strategy designed to align employee and executive incentives with long-term shareholder value and operational performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BHP) stock is a Hold with a A$48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BHP Group Ltd stock, see the AU:BHP Stock Forecast page.