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Arena REIT (AU:ARF)
ASX:ARF
Australian Market

Arena REIT (ARF) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:ARF

Arena REIT

(Sydney:ARF)

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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
AU$4.50
â–²(32.35% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:10/29/25
Arena REIT's strong financial performance, characterized by robust revenue growth and profitability, is the most significant factor driving the score. The technical analysis suggests neutral momentum, while the valuation is supported by a reasonable P/E ratio and attractive dividend yield. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data did not impact the score.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates expanding market presence and effective asset management, supporting long-term financial stability.
Cash Flow Generation
Strong cash flow generation enhances Arena REIT's ability to reinvest in properties, pay dividends, and manage debt, ensuring sustainable operations.
Solid Balance Sheet
A solid balance sheet with prudent leverage provides financial flexibility and resilience against economic fluctuations, supporting long-term growth.
Negative Factors
Volatility in Free Cash Flow
Volatility in cash flow can impact Arena REIT's ability to consistently fund operations and growth initiatives, posing a risk to financial stability.
Declining ROE Trends
A declining ROE trend may indicate challenges in generating returns on equity, potentially affecting investor confidence and long-term profitability.
Profit Margin Fluctuations
Fluctuating profit margins could signal instability in cost management or revenue streams, impacting Arena REIT's ability to maintain consistent profitability.

Arena REIT (ARF) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Arena REIT Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionArena REIT is an ASX300 listed property group that owns, manages and develops social infrastructure properties across Australia. Our current portfolio of social infrastructure properties is leased to a diversified tenant base in the growing early learning and healthcare sectors.
How the Company Makes MoneyArena REIT generates revenue primarily through rental income from its portfolio of properties. The company enters into long-term leases with operators of aged care and childcare facilities, which provide a stable and recurring revenue stream. Additionally, Arena REIT may earn income from property management fees and other ancillary services related to its real estate holdings. The company focuses on acquiring properties with strong underlying demand, which contributes to its occupancy rates and rental growth. Key partnerships with reputable operators in the healthcare and education sectors enhance its ability to maintain high occupancy levels and secure favorable lease terms, thereby supporting its revenue generation.

Arena REIT Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Arena REIT exhibits strong revenue growth and profitability, supported by efficient operations and a solid balance sheet. However, historical volatility in free cash flow and declining ROE trends may pose potential risks.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Arena REIT has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 7.42% increase in the latest year, supported by high gross and net profit margins of 92.11% and 74.05%, respectively. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust, indicating efficient operations. However, the net profit margin has seen fluctuations over the years, which could indicate some volatility in profitability.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company maintains a healthy debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35, reflecting prudent financial leverage. Return on equity is moderate at 6.61%, suggesting reasonable profitability from shareholders' investments. The equity ratio indicates a solid capital structure, but the ROE has shown some decline compared to previous years, which may warrant attention.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
Arena REIT's free cash flow has grown significantly by 141.16%, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.07, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, historical fluctuations in free cash flow, including negative values in prior years, suggest potential volatility in cash flow management.
BreakdownTTMJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue116.23M110.05M98.18M93.23M81.24M70.78M
Gross Profit111.27M101.36M90.43M86.06M80.67M68.22M
EBITDA117.01M86.48M74.91M85.64M61.55M67.77M
Net Income151.11M81.49M57.51M74.24M334.29M165.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.98B1.86B1.62B1.57B1.52B1.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments18.07M16.57M12.43M16.11M22.20M14.02M
Total Debt475.51M436.98M377.32M340.79M323.21M240.07M
Total Liabilities514.97M472.83M409.05M368.99M349.59M272.59M
Stockholders Equity1.31B1.23B1.07B1.20B1.17B878.92M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-3.08M74.27M62.53M-11.47M-45.90M-54.63M
Operating Cash Flow77.72M74.27M62.53M59.85M58.10M51.43M
Investing Cash Flow-114.02M-220.35M-56.76M-38.21M-87.50M-87.49M
Financing Cash Flow39.26M150.23M-9.45M-27.73M37.59M-26.25M

Arena REIT Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price3.40
Price Trends
50DMA
3.53
Negative
100DMA
3.59
Negative
200DMA
3.66
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.04
Positive
RSI
40.45
Neutral
STOCH
15.93
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ARF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.49, below the 50-day MA of 3.53, and below the 200-day MA of 3.66, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.93 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:ARF.

Arena REIT Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
AU$1.07B12.304.86%5.18%――
71
Outperform
AU$1.38B9.176.73%5.14%12.10%29.89%
71
Outperform
AU$1.65B8.459.29%6.30%0.12%―
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
60
Neutral
AU$1.11B-428.5710.22%3.17%206.14%101.96%
56
Neutral
AU$1.61B13.285.59%6.26%38.64%-21.14%
53
Neutral
AU$1.68B46.09-5.04%8.12%-0.33%58.26%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:ARF
Arena REIT
3.41
-0.10
-2.85%
AU:CQE
Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT
2.87
0.06
2.24%
AU:WPR
Waypoint REIT Ltd.
2.53
0.27
11.95%
AU:GOZ
Growthpoint Properties Australia
2.23
>-0.01
-0.22%
AU:CNI
Centuria Capital Group
1.90
0.36
23.05%
AU:HMC
Home Consortium Ltd
2.70
-6.42
-70.38%

Arena REIT Corporate Events

Arena REIT Outlines Half-Year 2026 Results and Outlook
Feb 10, 2026

Arena REIT has released a half-year 2026 results presentation dated 11 February 2026, outlining its financial performance and portfolio update for the period. The presentation signals a structured review of highlights, detailed financial results, portfolio developments and outlook, indicating ongoing communication with investors about operational progress and strategic positioning.

While specific figures are not disclosed in the document excerpt, the agenda suggests continued emphasis on portfolio management and future outlook. This indicates that Arena REIT is maintaining a forward focus on its asset base and market environment, which will be important for stakeholders assessing its performance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Arena REIT lifts profit and valuations as early learning pipeline expands
Feb 10, 2026

Arena REIT reported a strong first-half FY2026 result, with net operating profit rising 9% to $39 million and statutory net profit surging 202% to $110 million, driven by contracted rental growth and recently completed acquisitions and developments. Earnings per security increased 5.4%, distributions per security rose 5.5%, net asset value per security climbed to $3.64, and gearing remained conservative at 23.2%, supporting reaffirmed full-year distribution guidance.

Operational metrics remained robust, with 100% portfolio occupancy and a weighted average lease expiry of 17.9 years, underpinned by an average like-for-like rent increase of 3.6% and a 3.3% uplift in portfolio valuations that firmed the passing yield to 5.39%. Arena continued to recycle capital into higher-quality early learning assets, divesting six centres at a premium, completing eight development projects, acquiring three operating centres, and expanding its secured development pipeline to 29 projects with a forecast cost of $225 million, reinforcing its long-term growth profile for investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Arena REIT profit surges as income and asset values climb
Feb 10, 2026

Arena REIT reported a sharp improvement in performance for the half-year ended 31 December 2025, with total income from ordinary activities rising 234% to A$122.6 million compared with the prior corresponding period. Net profit attributable to stapled securityholders surged 302% to A$109.7 million, underscoring a strong uplift in earnings and profitability for the period.

Investors benefited from higher returns, with Arena maintaining quarterly distributions of 4.8125 cents per security for both the September and December quarters, bringing the total half-year payout to 9.625 cents. Net asset value per security also strengthened to A$3.64 at 31 December 2025 from A$3.46 at 30 June 2025, indicating growth in the underlying value of the property portfolio and overall balance sheet.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Arena REIT Director Increases Holding via Distribution Reinvestment Plan
Feb 9, 2026

Arena REIT has disclosed a change in the holdings of director Rosemary Hartnett, who increased her direct interest in the trust through participation in the distribution reinvestment plan. Hartnett acquired 573 ordinary stapled securities for a consideration of $2,007.39, lifting her total holding from 41,729 to 42,302 stapled securities.

The transaction reflects routine reinvestment of distributions rather than an on-market trade or strategic shift in ownership. The company confirmed that the change did not occur during a closed trading period requiring special clearance, indicating that the adjustment is a standard administrative update to the director’s disclosed interests under market rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Arena REIT Director Increases Holding via Distribution Reinvestment Plan
Feb 9, 2026

Arena REIT has disclosed a minor change in director Helen Thornton’s holding of stapled securities, following her participation in the company’s distribution reinvestment plan. On 5 February 2026, Thornton acquired 285 ordinary stapled securities for a total consideration of $998.44, increasing her direct holding from 34,315 to 34,600 stapled securities.

The transaction was effected through automatic reinvestment of distributions rather than an on-market trade, and there were no disposals of securities associated with the change. Arena REIT confirmed that the trade did not occur during a closed period that would have required prior written clearance, signalling routine portfolio adjustment rather than a discretionary transaction with governance implications.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Arena REIT Seeks Quotation of 1.6 Million New Stapled Securities on ASX
Feb 4, 2026

Arena REIT has applied to the ASX for quotation of 1,617,122 fully paid ordinary stapled securities issued under a dividend or distribution reinvestment plan, with an issue date of 5 February 2026. The additional securities will modestly increase Arena REIT’s equity base and free float, reflecting ongoing investor participation in its reinvestment program and incremental support for the REIT’s capital structure and future investment capacity.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Arena REIT Details Tax Components of December 2025 Quarter Distribution
Feb 2, 2026

Arena REIT has declared that its two trusts, Arena REIT No. 1 and Arena REIT No. 2, are withholding managed investment trusts for the December 2025 quarter distribution of 4.8125 cents per stapled security, with a record date of 31 December 2025 and payment and DRP issue date of 5 February 2026. The announcement details the tax components of the distribution for the 2025–26 income year, specifying fund payments, capital gains and cost base adjustments for the purposes of non-resident withholding tax, and is directed primarily at custodians, nominees and other managed investment trusts rather than Australian resident individual investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Arena REIT Sets Date for HY2026 Results and Investor Teleconference
Jan 22, 2026

Arena REIT will release its half-year 2026 financial results to the ASX on 11 February 2026 and will host an investor teleconference the same day to present its operating activities and financial performance for the period ended 31 December 2025. The company will also make a recording of the teleconference available on its website, underscoring its ongoing engagement with investors and transparency around its performance in the social infrastructure real estate sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.45 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Arena REIT Updates December Quarter Distribution Details and DRP Pricing
Jan 19, 2026

Arena REIT has updated its previously announced quarterly distribution for the period ended 31 December 2025, relating to its fully paid ordinary stapled securities. The 19 January 2026 notice is specifically to provide the dividend reinvestment plan pricing details, confirming key dates including an ex-date of 30 December 2025, a record date of 31 December 2025 and a scheduled payment date, ensuring clarity for investors participating in the distribution and DRP.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.09 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Arena REIT Reports $61M Portfolio Valuation Uplift and Expands Development Pipeline
Dec 18, 2025

Arena REIT has announced a portfolio valuation uplift of $61.0 million as part of its FY2026 first-half valuation program, driven mainly by a 3.6% valuation increase in its Early Learning Centre portfolio. The portfolio’s strong performance reflects robust investor demand, supported by favorable market yield compression. In addition to valuation gains, Arena completed $55.2 million worth of development projects, added $19.6 million in new acquisitions, and divested properties at a 10.4% premium, while also expanding its development pipeline to 29 projects valued at $225 million. Federal regulatory changes in childcare subsidies are expected to positively impact tenant partners and support future growth, as the policy shift will make subsidized early childcare more accessible to Australian families.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Arena REIT Declares Quarterly Distribution for December 2025
Dec 18, 2025

Arena REIT has announced a quarterly distribution of AUD 0.048125 per fully paid ordinary unit stapled security for the period ending December 31, 2025. With an ex-date of December 30, 2025, and a payment date set for February 5, 2026, this dividend announcement reflects the company’s continued commitment to delivering returns to its stakeholders, highlighting its stable financial performance and investment strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Arena REIT Announces Quarterly Distribution and DRP Discount
Dec 18, 2025

Arena REIT has announced a quarterly distribution of 4.8125 cents per stapled security for the period ending 31 December 2025, aligning with its previous FY26 distribution guidance. The Dividend and Distribution Reinvestment Plan (DRP) will apply, providing participating securityholders with new securities at a 1.5% discount. This move highlights Arena REIT’s stable income strategy and commitment to shareholder value, particularly in its focus on social infrastructure in the early learning and healthcare sectors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 29, 2025