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Arena REIT (AU:ARF)
ASX:ARF
Australian Market

Arena REIT (ARF) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:ARF

Arena REIT

(Sydney:ARF)

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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
AU$4.50
▲(28.21% Upside)
Arena REIT's strong financial performance, characterized by robust revenue growth and profitability, is the most significant factor driving the score. The technical analysis suggests neutral momentum, while the valuation is supported by a reasonable P/E ratio and attractive dividend yield. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data did not impact the score.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates expanding market presence and effective asset management, supporting long-term financial stability.
Cash Flow Generation
Strong cash flow generation enhances Arena REIT's ability to reinvest in properties, pay dividends, and manage debt, ensuring sustainable operations.
Solid Balance Sheet
A solid balance sheet with prudent leverage provides financial flexibility and resilience against economic fluctuations, supporting long-term growth.
Negative Factors
Volatility in Free Cash Flow
Volatility in cash flow can impact Arena REIT's ability to consistently fund operations and growth initiatives, posing a risk to financial stability.
Declining ROE Trends
A declining ROE trend may indicate challenges in generating returns on equity, potentially affecting investor confidence and long-term profitability.
Profit Margin Fluctuations
Fluctuating profit margins could signal instability in cost management or revenue streams, impacting Arena REIT's ability to maintain consistent profitability.

Arena REIT (ARF) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Arena REIT Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionArena REIT is an ASX300 listed property group that owns, manages and develops social infrastructure properties across Australia. Our current portfolio of social infrastructure properties is leased to a diversified tenant base in the growing early learning and healthcare sectors.
How the Company Makes MoneyArena REIT generates revenue primarily through rental income from its portfolio of properties. The company enters into long-term leases with operators of aged care and childcare facilities, which provide a stable and recurring revenue stream. Additionally, Arena REIT may earn income from property management fees and other ancillary services related to its real estate holdings. The company focuses on acquiring properties with strong underlying demand, which contributes to its occupancy rates and rental growth. Key partnerships with reputable operators in the healthcare and education sectors enhance its ability to maintain high occupancy levels and secure favorable lease terms, thereby supporting its revenue generation.

Arena REIT Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Arena REIT exhibits strong revenue growth and profitability, supported by efficient operations and a solid balance sheet. However, historical volatility in free cash flow and declining ROE trends may pose potential risks.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Arena REIT has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 7.42% increase in the latest year, supported by high gross and net profit margins of 92.11% and 74.05%, respectively. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust, indicating efficient operations. However, the net profit margin has seen fluctuations over the years, which could indicate some volatility in profitability.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company maintains a healthy debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35, reflecting prudent financial leverage. Return on equity is moderate at 6.61%, suggesting reasonable profitability from shareholders' investments. The equity ratio indicates a solid capital structure, but the ROE has shown some decline compared to previous years, which may warrant attention.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
Arena REIT's free cash flow has grown significantly by 141.16%, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.07, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, historical fluctuations in free cash flow, including negative values in prior years, suggest potential volatility in cash flow management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue110.05M110.05M98.18M93.23M81.24M70.78M
Gross Profit101.36M101.36M90.43M86.06M80.67M68.22M
EBITDA0.0086.48M74.91M85.64M61.55M67.77M
Net Income81.49M81.49M57.51M74.24M334.29M165.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.86B1.86B1.62B1.57B1.52B1.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments16.57M16.57M12.43M16.11M22.20M14.02M
Total Debt436.98M436.98M377.32M340.79M323.21M240.07M
Total Liabilities472.83M472.83M409.05M368.99M349.59M272.59M
Stockholders Equity1.23B1.23B1.07B1.20B1.17B878.92M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow74.27M74.27M62.53M-11.47M-45.90M-54.63M
Operating Cash Flow74.27M74.27M62.53M59.85M58.10M51.43M
Investing Cash Flow-220.35M-220.35M-56.76M-38.21M-87.50M-87.49M
Financing Cash Flow150.23M150.23M-9.45M-27.73M37.59M-26.25M

Arena REIT Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price3.51
Price Trends
50DMA
3.55
Negative
100DMA
3.67
Negative
200DMA
3.68
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Negative
RSI
45.74
Neutral
STOCH
36.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ARF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.55, below the 50-day MA of 3.55, and below the 200-day MA of 3.68, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:ARF.

Arena REIT Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
AU$1.72B11.3410.22%3.17%206.14%101.96%
74
Outperform
AU$1.08B15.334.86%5.18%
71
Outperform
AU$1.45B17.186.73%5.14%12.10%29.89%
66
Neutral
AU$1.59B9.329.29%6.30%0.12%
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
65
Neutral
AU$1.65B19.965.59%6.26%38.64%-21.14%
53
Neutral
AU$1.76B-13.86-5.04%8.12%-0.33%58.26%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:ARF
Arena REIT
3.51
-0.19
-5.14%
AU:CQE
Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT
2.93
0.46
18.82%
AU:WPR
Waypoint REIT Ltd.
2.44
0.16
7.02%
AU:GOZ
Growthpoint Properties Australia
2.29
0.06
2.46%
AU:CNI
Centuria Capital Group
1.89
0.19
11.18%
AU:HMC
Home Consortium Ltd
4.22
-5.09
-54.67%

Arena REIT Corporate Events

Arena REIT Reports $61M Portfolio Valuation Uplift and Expands Development Pipeline
Dec 18, 2025

Arena REIT has announced a portfolio valuation uplift of $61.0 million as part of its FY2026 first-half valuation program, driven mainly by a 3.6% valuation increase in its Early Learning Centre portfolio. The portfolio’s strong performance reflects robust investor demand, supported by favorable market yield compression. In addition to valuation gains, Arena completed $55.2 million worth of development projects, added $19.6 million in new acquisitions, and divested properties at a 10.4% premium, while also expanding its development pipeline to 29 projects valued at $225 million. Federal regulatory changes in childcare subsidies are expected to positively impact tenant partners and support future growth, as the policy shift will make subsidized early childcare more accessible to Australian families.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Arena REIT Declares Quarterly Distribution for December 2025
Dec 18, 2025

Arena REIT has announced a quarterly distribution of AUD 0.048125 per fully paid ordinary unit stapled security for the period ending December 31, 2025. With an ex-date of December 30, 2025, and a payment date set for February 5, 2026, this dividend announcement reflects the company’s continued commitment to delivering returns to its stakeholders, highlighting its stable financial performance and investment strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Arena REIT Announces Quarterly Distribution and DRP Discount
Dec 18, 2025

Arena REIT has announced a quarterly distribution of 4.8125 cents per stapled security for the period ending 31 December 2025, aligning with its previous FY26 distribution guidance. The Dividend and Distribution Reinvestment Plan (DRP) will apply, providing participating securityholders with new securities at a 1.5% discount. This move highlights Arena REIT’s stable income strategy and commitment to shareholder value, particularly in its focus on social infrastructure in the early learning and healthcare sectors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Arena REIT Updates Director’s Interest Following AGM Approval
Nov 14, 2025

Arena REIT announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically regarding Gareth Winter, who acquired additional LTI performance rights and deferred STI rights as part of his remuneration. This acquisition was approved by securityholders at the 2025 Arena REIT Annual General Meeting, reflecting the company’s commitment to aligning director incentives with shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Arena REIT Appoints Justin Bailey as New CEO
Nov 13, 2025

Arena REIT has announced the formal appointment of Justin Bailey as Managing Director and CEO, effective November 14, 2025, following a successful transition period. This leadership change is part of Arena’s succession planning and is expected to continue delivering positive outcomes for stakeholders, enhancing the company’s position in the social infrastructure sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Arena REIT Reinforces Community Commitment at 2025 AGM
Nov 12, 2025

Arena REIT held its Annual General Meeting on November 13, 2025, where key addresses were made by the Chair and the incoming CEO. The meeting included discussions on the company’s ongoing commitment to community engagement and its recognition of traditional custodians of the lands where it operates. This AGM serves as a platform for Arena REIT to reinforce its strategic direction and community-focused initiatives, potentially impacting its stakeholder relationships and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Arena REIT Reports Strong FY2025 Performance and Strategic Growth
Nov 12, 2025

Arena REIT reported a strong financial performance for FY2025, driven by its disciplined investment strategy and focus on sustainable growth. The company successfully expanded its portfolio with new acquisitions and developments, resulting in positive financial metrics and increased distributions. Arena REIT’s commitment to long-term leases and structured rental reviews positions it well for continued income growth. The remuneration framework was reviewed and adjusted to align with market practices, ensuring executive performance is incentivized and aligned with shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Arena REIT Director Increases Stake Through Reinvestment Plan
Nov 6, 2025

Arena REIT has announced a change in the director’s interest, with Helen Thornton acquiring an additional 272 ordinary stapled securities through participation in a distribution reinvestment plan. This change reflects a slight increase in Thornton’s holdings, now totaling 34,315 securities, and indicates continued confidence in the company’s performance and strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Arena REIT Director Increases Stake via Reinvestment Plan
Nov 6, 2025

Arena REIT has announced a change in the director’s interest, with Rosemary Hartnett acquiring 521 ordinary stapled securities through participation in a distribution reinvestment plan. This change reflects a slight increase in her holdings, bringing her total to 41,729 securities, indicating continued confidence in the company’s growth and stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Arena REIT Announces New Securities Issuance
Nov 6, 2025

Arena REIT has announced the issuance of 1,376,456 fully paid ordinary units stapled securities, which will be quoted on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). This move is part of a dividend or distribution plan, potentially enhancing the company’s capital structure and providing liquidity to support its investment strategies. The issuance of these securities may strengthen Arena REIT’s market position and provide benefits to its stakeholders by aligning with its growth and expansion objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Arena REIT Announces September 2025 Quarter Distribution
Oct 29, 2025

Arena REIT has announced the distribution for the September 2025 quarter, with a total distribution of 4.8125 cents per stapled security. This announcement is primarily aimed at custodians and intermediary investors, highlighting the company’s role as a withholding managed investment trust for taxation purposes, which may impact non-resident withholding tax considerations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Arena REIT Updates Dividend Distribution Details
Oct 16, 2025

Arena REIT has announced an update regarding its dividend distribution for the quarter ending on September 30, 2025. The update includes the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) price, which is relevant for stakeholders interested in the financial aspects of the company. This announcement may impact the company’s financial operations and provide insights into its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ARF) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Arena REIT stock, see the AU:ARF Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 29, 2025