ATI (ATI)
NYSE:ATI
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ATI
(NYSE:ATI)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$160.00
▼(-2.83% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/30/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (growth, profitability, and a strong recent FCF rebound) and a very positive earnings update with raised guidance and record backlog. Offsetting this are still-elevated leverage, weak near-term technical momentum (below short-term moving averages), and a demanding valuation (P/E ~40).
Positive Factors
Margin Expansion
Sustained margin expansion indicates stronger mix toward higher‑value aerospace & defense products and operational productivity gains. Higher consolidated and segment margins support durable operating leverage, improving cash generation and capacity to fund investments and returns over multiple years.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Debt roughly equal to equity leaves the firm more capital‑structure reliant on leverage than conservative peers. Elevated leverage constrains flexibility for large strategic investments, heightens interest expense sensitivity to rate moves, and reduces buffer against cyclical downturns in manufacturing demand.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Margin Expansion
Sustained margin expansion indicates stronger mix toward higher‑value aerospace & defense products and operational productivity gains. Higher consolidated and segment margins support durable operating leverage, improving cash generation and capacity to fund investments and returns over multiple years.
Read all positive factors
ATI (ATI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$21.21B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.87M
Price to Earnings (P/E)38.9
Beta (1Y)1.65
Revenue Growth2.93%
EPS Growth5.01%
CountryUS
Employees7,800
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryManufacturing - Metal Fabrication
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.00
Shares Outstanding136,462,390
10 Day Avg. Volume1,529,799
30 Day Avg. Volume1,869,516
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio11.28
Price to Book (P/B)8.96
Price to Sales (P/S)3.52
P/FCF Ratio48.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.69
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit20.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda25.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$179.63Price Target Upside9.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)4.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.98B
ATI Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ATI Inc. manufactures and sells specialty materials and components worldwide. The company operates in two segments: High Performance Materials & Components (HPMC) and Advanced Alloys & Solutions (AA&S). The HPMC segment produces various materials,...
How the Company Makes Money
ATI makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling specialty metal products to customers that require high-performance materials. Its core revenue model is business-to-business product sales, where revenue is recognized from shipments of mater...
ATI Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a clearly positive operational and financial trajectory: strong Q1 revenue and margin expansion, record $4.1B backlog, a substantial free-cash-flow turnaround, raised full-year guidance, notable defense and specialty energy contract wins, and tangible productivity gains. The principal risks are isolated: a Q1 airframe revenue decline, softer industrial/medical/electronics end markets, remaining debottlenecking capacity that only fully comes online later in 2026–2027, tariff uncertainty and some lumpy revenue timing. Overall, the positives (material margin expansion, backlog growth, cash-flow improvement, raised guidance and strategic contracts) materially outweigh the limited and manageable challenges cited.Positive Updates
Revenue and Mix
Q1 revenue of $1.15 billion with 69% attributed to aerospace & defense; company expects A&D to represent >70% of full year sales as mix shifts toward higher-value markets.
Negative Updates
Airframe Revenue Weakness
Airframe revenue declined 9% year-over-year in Q1 and is expected to be weighted to a second-half ramp; management expects stronger airframe contribution more meaningfully in 2027.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Mix
Q1 revenue of $1.15 billion with 69% attributed to aerospace & defense; company expects A&D to represent >70% of full year sales as mix shifts toward higher-value markets.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ATI raised full‑year guidance, increasing adjusted EBITDA by $35M to a range of $1.01B–$1.06B (midpoint $1.035B, +20% YoY), with adjusted EPS of $4.20–$4.48 and adjusted free cash flow of $465M–$525M (midpoint $495M, +$115M or +30% YoY). Q2 guidance is $245M–$255M adjusted EBITDA (EPS $0.98–$1.04; midpoint +20% y/y and ~+8% sequential), and full‑year consolidated margins are expected to be 20%+, with HPMC mid‑20s and AA&S upper‑teens; consolidated incremental margins ~40%. Q1 performance exceeded guidance: revenue $1.15B, adjusted EBITDA $232M (+19% YoY, 20.1% margin, $11M above midpoint/$6M above high end), adjusted free cash flow $75M (vs a $143M use prior year, +$218M YoY), managed working capital 34.8% of sales (‑110 bps), Q1 CapEx $55M (incl. $21M customer‑funded), share repurchases $75M and $545M remaining buyback authorization. Other notable metrics underpinning the outlook: backlog $4.1B (up 10% seq), jet engine growth mid‑teens (Q1 +12%), aerospace & defense ~70%+ of sales (Q1 A&D +6%), specialty energy mid‑teens (Q1 +22%), and segment Q1 margins HPMC 24.9% (+250 bps) and AA&S 18.1% (+320 bps).ATI Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.59B | 4.59B | 4.36B | 4.17B | 3.84B | 2.80B |
| Gross Profit | 1.04B | 999.80M | 913.50M | 826.30M | 714.20M | 334.00M |
| EBITDA | 845.20M | 812.10M | 670.70M | 539.10M | 678.50M | 492.50M |
| Net Income | 425.50M | 404.30M | 367.80M | 410.80M | 323.50M | 184.60M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.23B | 5.10B | 5.23B | 4.99B | 4.45B | 4.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 401.70M | 416.70M | 721.20M | 743.90M | 584.00M | 687.70M |
| Total Debt | 1.83B | 1.95B | 1.90B | 2.18B | 1.75B | 1.84B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.35B | 3.18B | 3.28B | 3.50B | 3.29B | 3.45B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.77B | 1.80B | 1.85B | 1.37B | 1.05B | 685.60M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 552.50M | 333.70M | 168.10M | -114.80M | 94.00M | -136.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 835.00M | 614.30M | 407.20M | 85.90M | 224.90M | 16.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -237.50M | -234.50M | -159.60M | -193.20M | -126.70M | -77.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -681.20M | -699.90M | -260.40M | 267.20M | -201.90M | 103.00M |
ATI Technical Analysis
Positive
164.66
Price Trends
150.87
Positive
132.46
Positive
108.55
Positive
Market Momentum
3.75
Negative
61.41
Neutral
68.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ATI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 164.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 151.38, above the 50-day MA of 150.87, and above the 200-day MA of 108.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ATI.
ATI Risk Analysis
ATI disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ATI reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ATI Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $4.27B | 12.84 | 24.53% | 0.67% | 4.58% | 556.92% | |
81 Outperform | $14.97B | 12.37 | 28.67% | 0.85% | 11.54% | 38.42% | |
75 Outperform | $21.28B | 35.29 | 24.41% | 0.24% | 3.72% | 34.03% | |
70 Outperform | $2.67B | 15.14 | 11.58% | 1.27% | 14.99% | 86.18% | |
69 Neutral | $21.21B | 38.95 | 22.69% | ― | 2.93% | 5.01% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $5.98B | 45.18 | 10.98% | 0.33% | 3.71% | -15.08% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ATI
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ATI Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
ATI Expands Share Repurchase Authorization, Signaling Long-Term Confidence
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On February 18, 2026, ATI’s board approved an additional authorization to repurchase up to $500 million of its common stock, supplementing $120 million that remained under a prior program to support a multi-year buyback effort. The company p...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.