ATI (ATI)
NYSE:ATI
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ATI
(NYSE:ATI)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$148.00
▼(-7.29% Downside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/21/26
The score is driven primarily by improved fundamentals and strong earnings-call guidance for further earnings and free-cash-flow growth. This is tempered by a very stretched technical setup (RSI/Stoch) and a demanding valuation (high P/E), with leverage and cash-flow cyclicality remaining key risks.
Positive Factors
Margin Expansion & Profitability
Sustained margin expansion and revenue growth reflect durable improvements in pricing, product mix and operational execution. Higher structural margins enhance cash generation and reinvestment capacity, making earnings more resilient across cycles and supporting long-term strategic initiatives.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Meaningful leverage reduces financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to interest-rate changes. If aerospace timing or specialty markets soften, debt servicing and covenant pressures could limit discretionary capital allocation and slow strategic investment or buyback pacing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Margin Expansion & Profitability
Sustained margin expansion and revenue growth reflect durable improvements in pricing, product mix and operational execution. Higher structural margins enhance cash generation and reinvestment capacity, making earnings more resilient across cycles and supporting long-term strategic initiatives.
Read all positive factors
ATI (ATI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$21.86B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.05M
Price to Earnings (P/E)40.0
Beta (1Y)1.65
Revenue Growth7.75%
EPS Growth6.84%
CountryUS
Employees7,800
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryManufacturing - Metal Fabrication
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.93
Shares Outstanding136,936,300
10 Day Avg. Volume1,802,802
30 Day Avg. Volume2,049,446
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio11.28
Price to Book (P/B)8.96
Price to Sales (P/S)3.52
P/FCF Ratio48.44
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit22.97
Enterprise Value/Ebitda29.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$167.67Price Target Upside5.04% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)4.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.98B
ATI Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ATI Inc. manufactures and sells specialty materials and components worldwide. The company operates in two segments: High Performance Materials & Components (HPMC) and Advanced Alloys & Solutions (AA&S). The HPMC segment produces various materials,...
How the Company Makes Money
ATI makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling specialty metal products to customers that require high-performance materials. Its core revenue model is business-to-business product sales, where revenue is recognized from shipments of mater...
ATI Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call showcased strong execution: multi-year transformation gains (margin expansion, record revenue since 2012), robust cash generation, meaningful share gains in aerospace & defense and specialty energy, and confident 2026 guidance backed by contract-secured investments. Challenges noted are largely operational timing, capacity constraints for specialized alloys, some end-market timing risk in airframes, and near-term capital intensity—each of which management outlined with mitigation plans (customer-funded projects, productivity improvements, phased capacity additions). Overall, positives substantially outweigh the highlighted risks.Positive Updates
Strong Q4 Results
Q4 revenue of $1.2B and adjusted EBITDA of $232M (above the high end of guidance); adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.7%, up 180 basis points vs. Q4 2024.
Negative Updates
First-Quarter Seasonality and Maintenance
Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $216M–$226M reflects planned maintenance and seasonality, with first-half margins expected in the upper teens before improving in H2.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q4 Results
Q4 revenue of $1.2B and adjusted EBITDA of $232M (above the high end of guidance); adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.7%, up 180 basis points vs. Q4 2024.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ATI guided Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $216–$226 million (EPS $0.83–$0.89; midpoint ≈ +14% vs Q1 2025) and full‑year adjusted EBITDA of $975 million–$1.025 billion (midpoint $1.0 billion, ≈ +16% YoY) with adjusted EPS $3.99–$4.27. They target adjusted free cash flow of $430–$490 million (midpoint $460M, $80M above 2025 / ≈ +21% YoY), gross CapEx of $280–$300 million with ~$60M of customer funding (net CapEx $220–$240M), aim to reduce managed working capital to ≤31% of sales, and expect no meaningful debt maturities until Dec 2027; $120M remains under the current share repurchase authorization to be completed in 2026. Margin guidance calls for consolidated full‑year margins around 20% (Q1 18.5–19%; H1 upper‑teens, H2 >20%), HPMC ≈25% and A&S in the upper‑teens, with average incremental margins ~40% (second half >40%), and planned nickel investments (new VIM) tied to a targeted ~$350M incremental nickel revenue run‑rate by mid‑2028.ATI Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.59B | 4.36B | 4.17B | 3.84B | 2.80B |
| Gross Profit | 1.01B | 913.50M | 826.30M | 714.20M | 334.00M |
| EBITDA | 789.00M | 670.70M | 539.10M | 678.50M | 492.50M |
| Net Income | 404.30M | 367.80M | 410.80M | 323.50M | 184.60M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.10B | 5.23B | 4.99B | 4.45B | 4.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 416.70M | 721.20M | 743.90M | 584.00M | 687.70M |
| Total Debt | 1.95B | 1.90B | 2.18B | 1.75B | 1.84B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.18B | 3.28B | 3.50B | 3.29B | 3.45B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.80B | 1.85B | 1.37B | 1.05B | 685.60M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 333.70M | 168.10M | -114.80M | 94.00M | -136.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 614.30M | 407.20M | 85.90M | 224.90M | 16.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -234.50M | -159.60M | -193.20M | -126.70M | -77.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -699.90M | -260.40M | 267.20M | -201.90M | 103.00M |
ATI Technical Analysis
Positive
159.63
Price Trends
146.37
Positive
128.67
Positive
106.27
Positive
Market Momentum
1.42
Negative
60.54
Neutral
77.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ATI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 159.63 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 147.14, above the 50-day MA of 146.37, and above the 200-day MA of 106.27, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ATI.
ATI Risk Analysis
ATI disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ATI reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ATI Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $4.06B | 19.10 | 26.34% | 0.67% | 1.55% | 701.41% | |
78 Outperform | $21.48B | 37.45 | 22.99% | 0.24% | 2.40% | 81.54% | |
74 Outperform | $13.41B | 16.84 | 27.46% | 0.85% | 15.71% | 29.60% | |
70 Outperform | $2.74B | 15.14 | 11.58% | 1.27% | 7.43% | 148.83% | |
69 Neutral | $21.86B | 39.98 | 22.69% | ― | 7.75% | 6.84% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $6.21B | 45.18 | 10.98% | 0.33% | 1.19% | -7.78% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ATI
ATI
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112.90
241.60%
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ATI Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
ATI Expands Share Repurchase Authorization, Signaling Long-Term Confidence
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On February 18, 2026, ATI’s board approved an additional authorization to repurchase up to $500 million of its common stock, supplementing $120 million that remained under a prior program to support a multi-year buyback effort. The company p...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.