ATI (ATI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $22.05B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.96M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 56.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.62
• Revenue Growth: 7.75%
• EPS Growth: 6.84%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,800
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Manufacturing - Metal Fabrication
• EPS (TTM): 0.93
• Shares Outstanding: 136,936,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,093,727
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,959,619
• PEG Ratio: 11.28
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.96
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.52
• P/FCF Ratio: 48.44
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.07
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 22.86
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 29.05
• 1Y Price Target: $154.00
• Price Target Upside: -3.76% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.16
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.97B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $167.00 ▲(4.36% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/21/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/21/26

The score is driven primarily by improved fundamentals and strong earnings-call guidance for further earnings and free-cash-flow growth. This is tempered by a very stretched technical setup (RSI/Stoch) and a demanding valuation (high P/E), with leverage and cash-flow cyclicality remaining key risks.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Sustained TTM operating cash flow and sizeable free cash flow provide durable funding for customer‑backed capex, productivity projects, and shareholder returns. This cash profile supports self-funded capacity expansion and lowers reliance on external financing across cycles.

Leading aerospace & defense exposure

A growing, high‑value A&D mix concentrates sales in structurally strong end markets with multi-year OEM programs and contract visibility. Share gains, missile and jet‑engine growth, and long-term contracts raise revenue durability and pricing power versus commodity exposure.

Margin expansion and operational gains

Material margin expansion reflects better mix, pricing, and productivity improvements. Durable operational upgrades (higher remelt output, heat‑treat cycle reductions) improve throughput and incremental margins, supporting sustained higher cash conversion over multiple years.

Negative Factors

Moderate-to-elevated leverage

Meaningful leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises vulnerability to earnings shocks or higher rates. With substantial debt relative to equity, sustained downturns could constrain investment choices or force slower buybacks, making capital allocation more tradeoff‑driven over the medium term.

Cyclical, lumpy free cash flow

Historically volatile free cash flow demonstrates sensitivity to working capital, capex and market cycles. Periodic FCF troughs limit consistent reinvestment and buybacks, increasing execution risk if end‑markets soften and making multi‑year planning more conservative.

Capacity constraints and capital intensity

Longer lead times for proprietary alloys and complex production increase throughput bottlenecks, requiring sizable, phased CapEx. Near‑term capital intensity raises execution and timing risk: projects must hit returns to justify spend while capacity limits can cap near‑term growth.

ATI Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ATI Inc. manufactures and sells specialty materials and components worldwide. The company operates in two segments: High Performance Materials & Components (HPMC) and Advanced Alloys & Solutions (AA&S). The HPMC segment produces various materials, including titanium and titanium-based alloys, nickel- and cobalt-based alloys and superalloys, advanced powder alloys and other specialty materials, in long product forms, such as ingot, billet, bar, rod, wire, shapes and rectangles, and seamless tubes, as well as precision forgings, components, and machined parts. The segment serves aerospace and defense, medical, and energy markets. The AA&S segment produces zirconium and related alloys, including hafnium and niobium, nickel-based alloys, titanium and titanium-based alloys, and specialty alloys in a variety of forms, such as plate, sheet, and precision rolled strip products. It also provides hot-rolling conversion services, including carbon steel products, and titanium products. This segment offers its solutions to the energy, aerospace and defense, automotive, and electronics markets. The company was formerly known as Allegheny Technologies Incorporated. ATI Inc. was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

ATI generates revenue through the sale of its specialty materials and components, focusing on high-value markets such as aerospace and defense, where demand for advanced materials is driven by technological innovation and regulatory standards. The company's revenue model is primarily based on direct sales to manufacturers and distributors in these sectors. Key revenue streams include contracts for large aerospace projects, sales of high-performance alloys, and supply agreements with major industry players. ATI also benefits from strategic partnerships with leading companies in aerospace and energy sectors, allowing it to secure long-term contracts and stabilize its revenue flow. Additionally, the company leverages its expertise in material science and engineering to offer customized solutions, further enhancing its market position and profitability.

ATI Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and operating performance have improved with solid TTM margins and a multi-year recovery, supported by strong operating cash flow and positive free cash flow. Offsetting this are moderate-to-elevated leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.12) and historically lumpy free cash flow that increases cyclicality risk.

Income Statement

Operating performance has strengthened meaningfully versus earlier years, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue up ~9.6% and profitability solid (gross margin ~21.9%, operating margin ~14.0%, net margin ~9.7%). Margins have generally expanded from 2020–2022 levels, indicating improved pricing/mix and execution. Main weakness is some year-to-year volatility in profit (e.g., 2023 net income outpaced 2024 despite lower margins), and the business remains cyclical, which can pressure results in downturns.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate-to-elevated: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) debt-to-equity is ~1.12 (improved from 2021–2022, but still meaningful). Equity has grown versus prior years, and returns on equity are strong (TTM ~24.8%), reflecting good earnings power. Key risk is continued reliance on debt financing (total debt ~1.75B vs. equity ~1.80B), which can limit flexibility if earnings soften or rates stay high.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is currently strong, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow (~$614M) and free cash flow (~$489M) supporting reinvestment and balance sheet needs. Cash conversion is decent but not perfect: free cash flow is ~75% of net income, implying some working-capital/capex demands. The main weakness is volatility—free cash flow swung negative in 2021 and 2023, and TTM free cash flow growth is negative, suggesting sustainability should be watched across the cycle.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.59B	4.36B	4.17B	3.84B	2.80B
Gross Profit	1.01B	913.50M	826.30M	714.20M	334.00M
EBITDA	789.00M	670.70M	539.10M	678.50M	492.50M
Net Income	404.30M	367.80M	410.80M	323.50M	184.60M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.10B	5.23B	4.99B	4.45B	4.29B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	416.70M	721.20M	743.90M	584.00M	687.70M
Total Debt	1.95B	1.90B	2.18B	1.75B	1.84B
Total Liabilities	3.18B	3.28B	3.50B	3.29B	3.45B
Stockholders Equity	1.80B	1.85B	1.37B	1.05B	685.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	333.70M	168.10M	-114.80M	94.00M	-136.50M
Operating Cash Flow	614.30M	407.20M	85.90M	224.90M	16.10M
Investing Cash Flow	-234.50M	-159.60M	-193.20M	-126.70M	-77.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-699.90M	-260.40M	267.20M	-201.90M	103.00M

ATI Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 160.02
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ATI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 160.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 139.31, above the 50-day MA of 126.82, and above the 200-day MA of 95.57, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 10.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 87.74 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.78 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ATI.

ATI Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AZZ	79 Outperform	$4.03B	12.68	27.38%	0.67%	1.55%	701.41%
MLI	79 Outperform	$13.33B	17.50	25.58%	0.85%	15.71%	29.60%
CRS	78 Outperform	$19.55B	45.59	23.48%	0.24%	2.40%	81.54%
ESAB	71 Outperform	$7.61B	34.04	13.86%	0.33%	1.19%	-7.78%
WOR	70 Outperform	$2.79B	26.54	11.31%	1.27%	7.43%	148.83%
ATI	69 Neutral	$22.05B	56.10	22.12%	―	7.75%	6.84%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

ATI Corporate Events

ATI Expands Share Repurchase Authorization, Signaling Long-Term Confidence

On February 18, 2026, ATI’s board approved an additional authorization to repurchase up to $500 million of its common stock, supplementing $120 million that remained under a prior program to support a multi-year buyback effort. The company plans to execute repurchases in the open market or through privately negotiated deals in compliance with SEC Rule 10b-18, while retaining full discretion to adjust, suspend or terminate the program without obligation to buy a specific number of shares.

ATI’s leadership framed the expanded repurchase capacity as a signal of confidence in its long-term performance and its strategy of shifting its portfolio toward higher-value aerospace and defense markets. The move underscores management’s commitment to returning capital to shareholders while reinforcing ATI’s positioning as a financially strong, innovation-focused materials supplier to critical end markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (ATI) stock is a Hold with a $162.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ATI stock, see the ATI Stock Forecast page.

ATI Announces New CFO Amid Leadership Changes

On December 4, 2025, ATI Inc. announced the appointment of J. Robert Foster as the new Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer, effective January 1, 2026. Foster, who has been with ATI since 2012, brings extensive experience in finance and operations, having previously served as President of the Specialty Alloys & Components business unit. He succeeds Donald P. Newman, who will transition to a Strategic Advisor role before retiring on March 1, 2026. Additionally, Chief Human Resources Officer Tina K. Busch resigned on December 5, 2025, and will provide consulting services during the transition period. These leadership changes are part of ATI’s strategic succession planning to ensure continued growth and operational excellence.

The most recent analyst rating on (ATI) stock is a Buy with a $115.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ATI stock, see the ATI Stock Forecast page.