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Carpenter Technology (CRS)
NYSE:CRS
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Carpenter Technology (CRS) AI Stock Analysis

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CRS

Carpenter Technology

(NYSE:CRS)

Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$268.00
▲(11.55% Upside)
Carpenter Technology's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are the primary drivers of its stock score. However, the high valuation and mixed technical indicators temper the overall outlook. The company's growth prospects and strategic market positioning provide a solid foundation, but investors should be cautious of valuation concerns and market volatility.
Positive Factors
Competitive Advantage
CRS's operational competitive moat is expanding, limiting long-term threats and is evident from the unique process knowledge and continuous improvement culture at the Athens facility.
Financial Performance
CRS's high conviction 2-year EPS CAGR of 25%+ is seen as a buying opportunity.
Market Demand
Even with the Athens expansion, there isn't enough alloy material to meet the needs of Boeing, Airbus, aftermarket, defense, and medical sectors into the next decade, signifying strong demand for CRS products.
Negative Factors
Competitive Pressure
Investors are worried that ATI's capacity increase will attenuate the pricing power of Ni alloy mills like CRS.
Pricing Power Concerns
Investors are worried that increased Ni melt capacity will attenuate the pricing power of Ni alloy mills.

Carpenter Technology (CRS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Carpenter Technology Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCarpenter Technology Corporation engages in the manufacture, fabrication, and distribution of specialty metals in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Mexico, Canada, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Specialty Alloys Operations and Performance Engineered Products. The company offers specialty alloys, including titanium alloys, powder metals, stainless steels, alloy steels, and tool steels, as well as additives, and metal powders and parts. It serves aerospace, defense, medical, transportation, energy, industrial, and consumer markets. The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyCarpenter Technology generates revenue through the sale of its specialty alloys and engineered products to various industries, with a significant focus on aerospace and medical markets. The company employs a diversified revenue model that includes direct sales to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and distributors. Key revenue streams comprise the sale of raw materials, custom manufacturing services, and powder metal products. Additionally, Carpenter Technology benefits from long-term contracts and partnerships with major companies in the aerospace and defense sectors, which provide stability and predictable revenue. The company's investments in research and development also enable it to innovate and offer new products that meet the evolving needs of its customers, further contributing to its earnings. Market trends, such as the increasing demand for lightweight materials in aerospace and automotive applications, also bolster Carpenter's financial performance.

Carpenter Technology Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Carpenter Technology reported a highly successful quarter with record profitability and strong cash flow, driven by improvements in safety performance, strategic market growth, and effective capital allocation. However, challenges in the Medical market and concerns over inventory levels in Aerospace related to Boeing's 737 platform were noted.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Profitability
Carpenter Technology delivered the most profitable quarter on record with $151 million in adjusted operating income, a 21% increase year-over-year and a 10% increase sequentially.
Safety Performance Improvement
The company achieved a total case incident rate of 1.4, representing a 20% improvement over fiscal year 2024.
Strong Free Cash Flow
Generated $201.3 million in adjusted free cash flow during the quarter, contributing to a total of $287.5 million for the fiscal year.
Market Growth
Significant sales growth in Energy end-use market, with a 27% sequential and 22% year-over-year increase, driven by power generation demand.
Positive Aerospace and Defense Outlook
Sales in Aerospace and Defense increased 3% sequentially and 2% year-over-year, with strong demand in engines and defense submarkets.
Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns
Executed $24.1 million in share repurchases during the quarter, totaling $101.9 million for the fiscal year, alongside quarterly dividends.
Negative Updates
Medical Market Decline
Sales in the Medical end-use market were down 16% compared to the prior year fourth quarter, despite a 6% sequential increase.
Decrease in Year-Over-Year Sales
Sales excluding surcharge decreased 2% year-over-year, attributed to a 14% decline in volumes.
Potential Inventory Challenges
Certain customers tied to Boeing's 737 platform may be holding more inventory than desired due to previous production issues.
Company Guidance
During the Carpenter Technology Q4 FY '25 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported strong financial performance and provided guidance for FY 2026. The fourth quarter marked the most profitable quarter on record, with $151 million in adjusted operating income, a 21% increase over Q4 FY 2024. The SAO segment achieved a 30.5% adjusted operating margin, up from 25.2% the previous year. The company generated $201.3 million in adjusted free cash flow and repurchased $24.1 million of shares in the quarter. Looking ahead to FY 2026, Carpenter Technology projects operating income between $660 million and $700 million, representing a 26% to 33% increase over FY 2025. The company expects SAO to generate $162 million to $165 million in operating income in Q1 FY 2026, despite planned maintenance activities. Additionally, Carpenter anticipates $240 million to $280 million in adjusted free cash flow for FY 2026, net of capital expenditures related to a $400 million brownfield expansion project. Overall, the company remains optimistic about its growth outlook, driven by strong demand in its key markets of aerospace, medical, and energy.

Carpenter Technology Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Carpenter Technology demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth, improved profitability, and effective cash flow management. The company maintains a solid equity base and balanced leverage, contributing to its financial stability.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Carpenter Technology has shown strong revenue growth over the past few years, with the latest year achieving a 4.26% increase. The gross profit margin stands at 26.72%, and the net profit margin has improved significantly to 13.07%, indicating enhanced profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins of 18.26% and 22.76%, respectively, reflect efficient operational management.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company maintains a solid equity base with an equity ratio of 54.11%, indicating strong financial health. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.37, which is manageable, showcasing effective leverage management. The ROE of 19.93% demonstrates a strong return on equity, highlighting the company's ability to generate profits from its equity base.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Carpenter Technology's free cash flow has grown by 60.45%, indicating robust financial flexibility. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.17, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.76, suggesting good cash generation relative to net income, ensuring liquidity and operational efficiency.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.88B2.88B2.76B2.55B1.84B1.48B
Gross Profit768.60M768.60M584.30M337.30M149.80M1.00M
EBITDA670.50M670.40M411.60M267.60M113.20M-140.70M
Net Income376.00M376.00M186.50M56.40M-49.10M-229.60M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.49B3.49B3.29B3.05B2.93B2.97B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments315.50M315.50M199.10M44.50M154.20M287.40M
Total Debt703.40M703.40M703.00M702.10M701.70M739.00M
Total Liabilities1.60B1.60B1.66B1.66B1.60B1.58B
Stockholders Equity1.89B1.89B1.63B1.40B1.33B1.39B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow286.10M286.10M178.30M-67.60M-85.30M149.50M
Operating Cash Flow440.40M440.40M274.90M14.70M6.00M250.00M
Investing Cash Flow-152.90M-152.90M-95.90M-82.30M-89.10M-78.90M
Financing Cash Flow-167.10M-167.10M-23.30M-40.10M-52.80M-76.10M

Carpenter Technology Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price240.26
Price Trends
50DMA
261.48
Negative
100DMA
241.54
Negative
200DMA
214.03
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-5.80
Negative
RSI
41.90
Neutral
STOCH
42.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CRS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 240.26 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 244.04, below the 50-day MA of 261.48, and above the 200-day MA of 214.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -5.80 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CRS.

Carpenter Technology Risk Analysis

Carpenter Technology disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carpenter Technology reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Carpenter Technology Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$10.78B15.1325.98%0.98%19.42%30.15%
80
Outperform
$3.50B13.0923.85%0.61%1.70%684.20%
77
Outperform
$10.80B26.4526.95%6.64%3.23%
74
Outperform
$3.25B33.5810.52%1.04%-60.43%-14.19%
71
Outperform
$11.98B31.8021.37%0.33%4.25%100.21%
70
Neutral
$7.07B27.2714.81%0.29%-1.06%1.56%
64
Neutral
$10.73B15.657.61%2.01%2.80%-14.92%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CRS
Carpenter Technology
240.26
108.67
82.58%
ATI
ATI
77.63
19.50
33.55%
AZZ
AZZ
116.71
43.61
59.66%
MLI
Mueller Industries
97.37
32.07
49.11%
WOR
Worthington Industries
65.07
22.75
53.76%
ESAB
ESAB Corporation
116.42
22.74
24.27%

Carpenter Technology Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Carpenter Technology Announces New Chairman Appointment
Neutral
Aug 13, 2025

On August 12, 2025, Carpenter Technology Corporation announced the retirement of I. Martin Inglis as Chairman of the Board, with Tony R. Thene, the current President and CEO, appointed as his successor. Additionally, Brian J. Malloy was promoted to President and COO, effective October 7, 2025, as part of the company’s succession plans, highlighting Carpenter Technology’s commitment to strategic growth and leadership continuity.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 29, 2025