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Carpenter Technology (CRS)
NYSE:CRS
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Carpenter Technology (CRS) AI Stock Analysis

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CRS

Carpenter Technology

(NYSE:CRS)

Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$286.00
▲(14.98% Upside)
Carpenter Technology's robust financial performance and positive earnings call outlook are the primary drivers of its score. However, technical indicators suggest caution due to bearish momentum, and valuation concerns limit the stock's attractiveness.
Positive Factors
Earnings
CRS's high conviction 2-year EPS CAGR of 25%+ is seen as a buying opportunity.
Operational Efficiency
The continuous improvement culture at Carpenter Technology Corp has reached a high level of efficiency, contributing to improved margins, safety, and operational flow.
Pricing Power
Pricing power remains a pillar of the analyst's Overweight thesis for CRS, supported by an attractive outlook for more than 75% of the company’s end market exposure, steep barriers to entry, and expectations of a forthcoming high-purity nickel alloy shortfall.
Negative Factors
Industry Competition
Investors are worried that increased Ni melt capacity will attenuate the pricing power of Ni alloy mills.
Supply Constraints
Even with the Athens expansion, there isn't enough alloy material to meet the needs of Boeing, Airbus, aftermarket, defense, and medical sectors into the next decade, signifying strong demand for CRS products.

Carpenter Technology (CRS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Carpenter Technology Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCarpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) is a leading manufacturer and distributor of specialty alloys and engineered products, primarily serving the aerospace, defense, energy, medical, and industrial markets. The company specializes in high-performance materials, including titanium, nickel, and cobalt-based alloys, which are critical in the production of components that require superior strength and corrosion resistance. Carpenter Technology operates through various segments, including Specialty Alloys Operations and Carpenter Powder Products, providing both traditional and advanced manufacturing solutions.
How the Company Makes MoneyCarpenter Technology generates revenue through the sale of its specialty alloys and engineered products to various industries, with a significant focus on aerospace and medical markets. The company employs a diversified revenue model that includes direct sales to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and distributors. Key revenue streams comprise the sale of raw materials, custom manufacturing services, and powder metal products. Additionally, Carpenter Technology benefits from long-term contracts and partnerships with major companies in the aerospace and defense sectors, which provide stability and predictable revenue. The company's investments in research and development also enable it to innovate and offer new products that meet the evolving needs of its customers, further contributing to its earnings. Market trends, such as the increasing demand for lightweight materials in aerospace and automotive applications, also bolster Carpenter's financial performance.

Carpenter Technology Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: -12.30%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights Carpenter Technology's strong performance in profitability, cash flow generation, and market dynamics, particularly in the Aerospace and Defense segment. Despite some challenges, such as the decline in Medical sales year-over-year and lower sales excluding surcharge, the overall outlook remains positive, with significant growth expected in FY26.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Profitability and Operating Income
Carpenter Technology achieved the most profitable quarter on record with $151 million in adjusted operating income, a 21% increase over Q4 FY24 and a 10% increase over the recent third quarter.
Strong SAO Segment Performance
The SAO segment reached a record $167 million of operating income, a 19% year-over-year increase, with adjusted operating margins expanding to 30.5% from 25.2% a year ago.
Significant Free Cash Flow Generation
The company generated $201.3 million in adjusted free cash flow during the quarter and $287.5 million for the fiscal year 2025.
Strong Aerospace and Defense Market Dynamics
Aerospace and Defense sales increased 3% sequentially and 2% year-over-year, with engine sales up 5% sequentially and defense submarket sales up 17% sequentially.
Positive Outlook for Fiscal Year 2026
Carpenter Technology projects $660 million to $700 million in adjusted operating income for FY26, representing a 26% to 33% increase over FY25.
Negative Updates
Decline in Medical Sales Year-over-Year
Medical sales were down 16% compared to a record prior year fourth quarter, despite a sequential increase of 6%.
Lower Year-over-Year Sales excluding Surcharge
Sales excluding surcharge decreased 2% year-over-year on 14% lower volumes, though there was a sequential increase in sales.
Company Guidance
In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, Carpenter Technology achieved significant financial milestones, with $151 million in adjusted operating income, marking a 21% increase over the same quarter in the previous year and a 10% rise from the preceding quarter. The company's SAO segment was a key driver of profitability, reaching a record operating income of $167 million and expanding operating margins to 30.5%. Additionally, Carpenter Technology generated $201.3 million in adjusted free cash flow, bolstered by disciplined working capital management, and repurchased $24.1 million of shares. Sales were up sequentially across all key end-use markets, including a 3% increase in the Aerospace and Defense sector, and a notable 27% rise in the Energy market. The company also announced guidance for fiscal year 2026, projecting $660 million to $700 million in adjusted operating income, representing a 26% to 33% increase over fiscal year 2025.

Carpenter Technology Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Carpenter Technology shows strong financial health with consistent revenue growth, improved profitability, and robust cash flow management. The solid equity base and manageable debt levels further support its stability.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Carpenter Technology has shown strong revenue growth over the past few years, with the latest year achieving a 4.26% increase. The gross profit margin stands at 26.72%, and the net profit margin has improved significantly to 13.07%, indicating enhanced profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins of 18.26% and 22.76%, respectively, reflect efficient operational management.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company maintains a solid equity base with an equity ratio of 54.11%, indicating strong financial health. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.37, which is manageable, showcasing effective leverage management. The ROE of 19.93% demonstrates a strong return on equity, highlighting the company's ability to generate profits from its equity base.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Carpenter Technology's free cash flow has grown by 60.45%, indicating robust financial flexibility. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.17, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.76, suggesting good cash generation relative to net income, ensuring liquidity and operational efficiency.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.88B2.88B2.76B2.55B1.84B1.48B
Gross Profit768.50M768.60M584.30M337.30M149.80M1.00M
EBITDA590.50M654.90M397.20M257.60M113.60M-141.20M
Net Income376.00M376.00M186.50M56.40M-49.10M-229.60M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.49B3.49B3.29B3.05B2.93B2.97B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments315.50M315.50M199.10M44.50M154.20M287.40M
Total Debt695.40M695.40M741.40M693.00M701.70M694.50M
Total Liabilities1.60B1.60B1.66B1.66B1.60B1.58B
Stockholders Equity1.89B1.89B1.63B1.40B1.33B1.39B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow286.10M286.10M178.30M-67.60M-85.30M149.50M
Operating Cash Flow440.40M440.40M274.90M14.70M6.00M250.00M
Investing Cash Flow-152.90M-152.90M-95.90M-82.30M-89.10M-78.90M
Financing Cash Flow-167.10M-167.10M-23.30M-40.10M-52.80M-76.10M

Carpenter Technology Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price248.74
Price Trends
50DMA
263.51
Negative
100DMA
229.94
Positive
200DMA
207.03
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-3.79
Positive
RSI
37.87
Neutral
STOCH
29.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CRS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 248.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 269.98, below the 50-day MA of 263.51, and above the 200-day MA of 207.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.79 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CRS.

Carpenter Technology Risk Analysis

Carpenter Technology disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carpenter Technology reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Carpenter Technology Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
$3.31B12.7923.85%0.64%1.70%684.20%
81
Outperform
$9.86B14.1425.98%1.01%19.42%30.15%
73
Outperform
$10.07B25.2526.95%6.64%3.23%
73
Outperform
$3.15B32.9910.52%1.08%-60.43%-14.19%
72
Outperform
$12.38B33.5221.38%0.32%4.25%100.26%
71
Outperform
$6.75B26.5714.81%0.31%-1.06%1.56%
64
Neutral
€15.12B19.931.57%3.13%4.81%5.42%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CRS
Carpenter Technology
248.74
110.22
79.57%
ATI
ATI
73.04
10.99
17.71%
AZZ
AZZ
110.25
36.99
50.49%
MLI
Mueller Industries
89.08
22.89
34.58%
WOR
Worthington Industries
62.69
20.11
47.23%
ESAB
ESAB Corporation
111.13
17.39
18.55%

Carpenter Technology Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Carpenter Technology Appoints Julie Beck to Board
Positive
Feb 24, 2025

On February 20, 2025, Carpenter Technology Corporation appointed Julie A. Beck to its Board of Directors, effective immediately. Ms. Beck, who has extensive experience in finance and manufacturing, will serve as a Class II director until the 2027 annual meeting. Her appointment is expected to enhance the company’s growth and shareholder returns, as highlighted by Martin Inglis, Chairman of the Board.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 02, 2025