ATI (ATI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $20.20B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.38M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 40.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.66
• Revenue Growth: 7.75%
• EPS Growth: 6.84%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,800
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Manufacturing - Metal Fabrication
• EPS (TTM): 0.93
• Shares Outstanding: 136,936,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,281,814
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,378,168
• PEG Ratio: 11.28
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.96
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.52
• P/FCF Ratio: 48.44
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.08
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.78
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 21.52
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 27.36
• 1Y Price Target: $158.63
• Price Target Upside: 7.56% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.16
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.97B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $155.00 ▲(5.10% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/21/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/21/26

The score is driven primarily by improved fundamentals and strong earnings-call guidance for further earnings and free-cash-flow growth. This is tempered by a very stretched technical setup (RSI/Stoch) and a demanding valuation (high P/E), with leverage and cash-flow cyclicality remaining key risks.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Sustained operating cash flow and materially higher adjusted free cash flow provide durable internal funding for reinvestment, deleveraging, and shareholder returns. This cash strength supports capital allocation flexibility through cycles and underpins the company's ability to fund targeted growth investments without relying solely on external financing.

Leading aerospace & defense positioning

Proprietary capabilities in advanced nickel alloys and growing A&D share create a structural competitive advantage. High technical barriers and long qualification cycles make these products sticky, enabling premium mix, stronger margins, and multi-year contract opportunities tied to durable aerospace and defense program demand.

Disciplined, contract-backed capital allocation

Management pairs shareholder returns with contract-backed, customer-funded investments and project returns >30%. This discipline reduces execution risk on capacity additions, aligns capex with secured demand, and signals confidence in cash generation while maintaining optionality to adjust capital deployment if markets soften.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Meaningful leverage constrains financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate exposure during downturns. If end-market demand softens or cash flow weakens, debt servicing and covenant/headroom pressures could limit strategic options, slow buybacks, or force more conservative capital spending decisions.

Volatile free cash flow

Historic swings in free cash flow highlight cyclical working-capital and capex sensitivity. Even with recent gains, lumpy FCF raises risk that the company cannot reliably fund growth, debt reduction, or buybacks every year, making long-term planning and consistent deleveraging dependent on sustained end-market strength.

Capacity constraints and capital intensity

Long lead times and complex production restrict throughput and require phased, capital-intensive investments. Although customer funding offsets some cost, execution risk and multi-year buildouts can delay revenue conversion and margin expansion, making growth dependent on timely capacity delivery and sustained demand.

ATI Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ATI Inc. manufactures and sells specialty materials and components worldwide. The company operates in two segments: High Performance Materials & Components (HPMC) and Advanced Alloys & Solutions (AA&S). The HPMC segment produces various materials, including titanium and titanium-based alloys, nickel- and cobalt-based alloys and superalloys, advanced powder alloys and other specialty materials, in long product forms, such as ingot, billet, bar, rod, wire, shapes and rectangles, and seamless tubes, as well as precision forgings, components, and machined parts. The segment serves aerospace and defense, medical, and energy markets. The AA&S segment produces zirconium and related alloys, including hafnium and niobium, nickel-based alloys, titanium and titanium-based alloys, and specialty alloys in a variety of forms, such as plate, sheet, and precision rolled strip products. It also provides hot-rolling conversion services, including carbon steel products, and titanium products. This segment offers its solutions to the energy, aerospace and defense, automotive, and electronics markets. The company was formerly known as Allegheny Technologies Incorporated. ATI Inc. was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

ATI makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling specialty metal products to customers that require high-performance materials. Its core revenue model is business-to-business product sales, where revenue is recognized from shipments of materials (and, where applicable, related processing) produced in ATI’s manufacturing operations. Key revenue streams generally include sales of titanium products and specialty alloys and related engineered materials used in aerospace and defense applications, along with sales into other industrial markets that demand corrosion resistance, strength-to-weight advantages, or high-temperature performance. The company’s earnings are influenced by factors such as customer demand in aerospace/defense supply chains, the mix of higher-value specialty products versus more commodity-like products, pricing and contract terms, and its ability to manage input costs and manufacturing yields. Specific partnership details and customer concentrations: null.

ATI Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and operating performance have improved with solid TTM margins and a multi-year recovery, supported by strong operating cash flow and positive free cash flow. Offsetting this are moderate-to-elevated leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.12) and historically lumpy free cash flow that increases cyclicality risk.

Income Statement

Operating performance has strengthened meaningfully versus earlier years, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue up ~9.6% and profitability solid (gross margin ~21.9%, operating margin ~14.0%, net margin ~9.7%). Margins have generally expanded from 2020–2022 levels, indicating improved pricing/mix and execution. Main weakness is some year-to-year volatility in profit (e.g., 2023 net income outpaced 2024 despite lower margins), and the business remains cyclical, which can pressure results in downturns.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate-to-elevated: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) debt-to-equity is ~1.12 (improved from 2021–2022, but still meaningful). Equity has grown versus prior years, and returns on equity are strong (TTM ~24.8%), reflecting good earnings power. Key risk is continued reliance on debt financing (total debt ~1.75B vs. equity ~1.80B), which can limit flexibility if earnings soften or rates stay high.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is currently strong, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow (~$614M) and free cash flow (~$489M) supporting reinvestment and balance sheet needs. Cash conversion is decent but not perfect: free cash flow is ~75% of net income, implying some working-capital/capex demands. The main weakness is volatility—free cash flow swung negative in 2021 and 2023, and TTM free cash flow growth is negative, suggesting sustainability should be watched across the cycle.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.59B	4.36B	4.17B	3.84B	2.80B
Gross Profit	1.01B	913.50M	826.30M	714.20M	334.00M
EBITDA	789.00M	670.70M	539.10M	678.50M	492.50M
Net Income	404.30M	367.80M	410.80M	323.50M	184.60M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.10B	5.23B	4.99B	4.45B	4.29B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	416.70M	721.20M	743.90M	584.00M	687.70M
Total Debt	1.95B	1.90B	2.18B	1.75B	1.84B
Total Liabilities	3.18B	3.28B	3.50B	3.29B	3.45B
Stockholders Equity	1.80B	1.85B	1.37B	1.05B	685.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	333.70M	168.10M	-114.80M	94.00M	-136.50M
Operating Cash Flow	614.30M	407.20M	85.90M	224.90M	16.10M
Investing Cash Flow	-234.50M	-159.60M	-193.20M	-126.70M	-77.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-699.90M	-260.40M	267.20M	-201.90M	103.00M

ATI Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 147.48
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ATI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 147.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 155.74, above the 50-day MA of 138.51, and above the 200-day MA of 101.12, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.72 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ATI.

ATI Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MLI	79 Outperform	$12.27B	16.84	27.46%	0.85%	15.71%	29.60%
AZZ	78 Outperform	$3.70B	19.10	26.34%	0.67%	1.55%	701.41%
CRS	78 Outperform	$18.63B	37.45	22.99%	0.24%	2.40%	81.54%
WOR	70 Outperform	$2.39B	24.74	11.16%	1.27%	7.43%	148.83%
ATI	69 Neutral	$20.20B	39.98	22.69%	―	7.75%	6.84%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
ESAB	61 Neutral	$5.97B	45.18	10.98%	0.33%	1.19%	-7.78%

ATI Corporate Events

ATI Expands Share Repurchase Authorization, Signaling Long-Term Confidence

On February 18, 2026, ATI’s board approved an additional authorization to repurchase up to $500 million of its common stock, supplementing $120 million that remained under a prior program to support a multi-year buyback effort. The company plans to execute repurchases in the open market or through privately negotiated deals in compliance with SEC Rule 10b-18, while retaining full discretion to adjust, suspend or terminate the program without obligation to buy a specific number of shares.

ATI’s leadership framed the expanded repurchase capacity as a signal of confidence in its long-term performance and its strategy of shifting its portfolio toward higher-value aerospace and defense markets. The move underscores management’s commitment to returning capital to shareholders while reinforcing ATI’s positioning as a financially strong, innovation-focused materials supplier to critical end markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (ATI) stock is a Hold with a $162.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ATI stock, see the ATI Stock Forecast page.