Athira Pharma (ATHA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $25.83M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 41.47K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.30
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 66.10%
• Country: US
• Employees: 26
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.68
• Shares Outstanding: 3,943,887
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 36,543
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 41,474
• PEG Ratio: 0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.23
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: -0.66
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 24.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.45
• 1Y Price Target: $4.00
• Price Target Upside: -38.84% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.50 ▲(14.68% Upside)

Overall score is weighed down primarily by weak financial performance (no revenue, ongoing losses, and continued cash burn despite improvement) and limited valuation visibility due to negative earnings. Strong technical momentum and positive corporate developments (Phase 3 oncology pivot and financing extending runway) provide meaningful offsets but do not fully overcome the fundamentally loss-making profile.

Positive Factors

Late-stage oncology asset (lasofoxifene)

Acquiring rights to lasofoxifene and assuming a Phase 3 registrational trial materially de-risks parts of the pipeline versus early-stage programs. A late‑stage asset creates a clearer regulatory/commercial path, shortens time-to-value realization, and diversifies therapeutic focus long-term.

Upfront financing extends runway

A $90M private placement with potential additional warrant proceeds funds development through topline Phase 3 readouts and key regulatory milestones, reducing immediate liquidity risk. This capital gives management durable runway to advance lasofoxifene and existing programs without urgent refinancing.

Low financial leverage

Minimal debt keeps interest obligations low and preserves flexibility to prioritize R&D spending or structure future financings. In a capital-intensive biotech model, low leverage reduces solvency risk and supports optionality for licensing, M&A, or staged development investments over the medium term.

Negative Factors

No revenue and persistent net losses

Absence of product revenue means the company remains entirely dependent on external funding until commercialization. Persistent large losses indicate the business has not yet demonstrated a repeatable revenue model, heightening execution risk if clinical setbacks delay potential approval or partner deals.

Severe equity and asset erosion

Sharp decline in equity and assets reflects cumulative losses and dilution, reducing the company's financial buffer. This erosion limits capacity to absorb development setbacks, weakens bargaining posture with partners and lenders, and constrains strategic flexibility over the medium term.

Weak cash generation; negative free cash flow

Consistent negative operating and free cash flow—even with recent burn improvement—means the firm cannot self-fund development and will likely need further financing if milestones slip. Reliance on dilutive capital raises increases execution risk and can impair long-term shareholder value.

Athira Pharma Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Athira Pharma, Inc., a late clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing small molecules to restore neuronal health and slow neurodegradation. The company's lead product candidate is ATH-1017, a blood brain barrier-penetrating, small molecule HGF/MET positive modulator that is in LIFT-AD Phase 3 and ACT-AD Phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease, as well as is in Phase 2 clinical trials to treat Parkinson's disease. It also develops product candidates, which are in preclinical stage, including ATH-1019 for peripheral nervous system indications; and ATH-1020 for neuropsychiatric conditions. Athira Pharma, Inc. was formerly known as M3 Biotechnology, Inc. and changed its name to Athira Pharma, Inc. in April 2019. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Bothell, Washington.

How the Company Makes Money

Athira Pharma primarily generates revenue through the development and commercialization of its proprietary therapeutic candidates. As a clinical-stage company, Athira does not yet have products on the market, so its primary sources of funding include public and private investments, grants, and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies. Once its therapies, such as fosgonimeton, gain regulatory approval, Athira anticipates generating revenue through product sales, licensing agreements, and potential milestone payments from strategic partnerships. The company's financial health is heavily reliant on successful clinical trials and obtaining necessary regulatory approvals for their drug candidates.

Athira Pharma Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Athira Pharma's financials reflect an early-stage biotech company with no revenue, significant losses, and negative cash flows. Despite a strong cash position, declining equity and high liabilities pose financial risks. The company relies heavily on cash reserves and financing to sustain operations.

Income Statement

Athira Pharma has consistently reported zero revenue over the years, reflecting its early-stage status or focus on R&D without product commercialization. The company incurs significant losses, with negative EBIT and net income, indicating a high cash burn rate typical of biotech firms. The lack of revenue growth and negative margins highlight financial challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong cash position relative to minimal debt, providing some financial stability. However, the declining equity suggests asset erosion, and substantial liabilities outweighing equity in some years indicate potential financial risks. The equity ratio remains relatively healthy yet declining over time.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is consistently negative, indicating cash outflows from operations. The company relies on financing activities to sustain operations, as reflected in its cash flow from financing. Free cash flow remains deeply negative, showcasing the heavy investment phase typical in biotech development stages.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-686.00K	0.00	0.00	0.00	-479.00K	-2.00M
EBITDA	-37.49M	-95.81M	-125.97M	-88.01M	-54.37M	-19.59M
Net Income	-37.72M	-96.94M	-117.67M	-95.64M	-54.85M	-19.95M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	30.03M	58.78M	160.25M	258.15M	332.01M	279.56M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	25.23M	51.27M	147.42M	200.34M	253.76M	184.68M
Total Debt	912.00K	1.22M	1.58M	1.91M	1.92M	1.00M
Total Liabilities	3.25M	13.94M	30.06M	23.02M	10.92M	5.28M
Stockholders Equity	26.79M	44.84M	130.19M	235.14M	321.08M	274.28M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-52.34M	-97.20M	-101.06M	-73.61M	-44.67M	-26.43M
Operating Cash Flow	-52.34M	-97.17M	-100.75M	-72.47M	-43.10M	-24.11M
Investing Cash Flow	-4.07M	54.83M	95.09M	57.66M	-4.08M	-210.07M
Financing Cash Flow	58.00K	194.00K	493.00K	654.00K	97.09M	292.75M

Athira Pharma Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6.54
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ATHA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.60, above the 50-day MA of 5.21, and above the 200-day MA of 3.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.98 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ATHA.

Athira Pharma Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ATHA	55 Neutral	$25.83M	-0.68	-89.42%	―	―	66.10%
CLRB	53 Neutral	$16.11M	-0.38	-145.42%	―	―	79.31%
SNSE	52 Neutral	$14.40M	-0.55	-67.47%	―	―	9.63%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
COCP	45 Neutral	$15.30M	-1.17	-94.94%	―	―	49.10%
IMRN	38 Underperform	$7.42M	-2.05	-49.00%	―	47.17%	26.84%
BIVI	38 Underperform	$9.50M	-0.14	-94.79%	―	―	84.44%

Athira Pharma Corporate Events

Athira Pharma Rebrands as LeonaBio, Refocusing on Oncology

On January 9, 2026, Athira Pharma changed its corporate name to LeonaBio, Inc., aligning its branding and Nasdaq ticker (to “LONA,” effective January 12, 2026) with its strategic pivot around lasofoxifene, a Phase 3 asset for metastatic breast cancer licensed in December 2025 and supported by a $90 million upfront private placement that could provide up to an additional $146 million if related warrants are fully exercised, funding operations into 2028; the rebrand, which leaves the company’s legal structure, current operations and stockholder rights unchanged, underscores its ambition to build a late‑stage oncology and neurodegeneration pipeline and signals a sharpened market identity to investors. In parallel with the name and symbol changes, the company strengthened executive protections and incentives by entering, on January 8, 2026, into an amended change‑in‑control and severance agreement with Chief Financial Officer Robert Renninger—providing tiered cash severance, COBRA coverage and accelerated equity vesting depending on timing of a qualifying termination—and, on January 7, 2026, increasing his base salary to $460,000 retroactive to December 16, 2025, measures that aim to stabilize leadership as LeonaBio advances its late‑stage programs and navigates potential strategic transactions.

The most recent analyst rating on (ATHA) stock is a Hold with a $7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Athira Pharma stock, see the ATHA Stock Forecast page.

Athira Pharma pivots to oncology with new licensing deal

On December 18, 2025, Athira Pharma moved to reshape its portfolio and balance sheet by securing an exclusive license from Sermonix Pharmaceuticals and a parallel direct license from Ligand Pharmaceuticals to develop and commercialize oral lasofoxifene worldwide outside Asia and certain Middle Eastern countries, assuming control of the ongoing global Phase 3 ELAINE‑3 trial in ESR1‑mutated metastatic breast cancer and associated manufacturing and service agreements. As part of this Sermonix transaction, Athira will issue Sermonix roughly $34.9 million in equity via a large pre‑funded warrant, commit about $16.8 million to Sermonix vendors and ongoing monthly payments creditable against up to $100 million of future milestones and low single‑digit royalties, while taking over Sermonix’s rights to Henlius‑related income and replicating Sermonix’s prior economics with Ligand through up to $21 million in per‑product milestones and mid‑single‑ to low‑double‑digit royalties owed to Ligand. To fund this oncology pivot and its ALS program, Athira simultaneously signed a private placement with a syndicate led by Commodore Capital, Perceptive Advisors and TCGX for approximately $90 million in gross proceeds through common stock and pre‑funded warrants plus short‑dated Series A and Series B warrants that could raise substantial additional capital; the financing comes with board designation rights for key investors and registration obligations, and, together with existing cash, is expected to extend the company’s operating runway and the development of lasofoxifene and ATH‑1105 into 2028, while meaningfully increasing future dilution and bringing notable governance and capital‑allocation constraints tied to the new shareholders and licensing partners.

The most recent analyst rating on (ATHA) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Athira Pharma stock, see the ATHA Stock Forecast page.