Aspen Group (ASPU) AI Stock Analysis

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Aspen Group

(OTC:ASPU)

Rating:47Neutral

Price Target:

$0.00

▼( -100.00% Downside)

Aspen Group's overall stock score is primarily driven by its financial performance challenges, including declining revenues, negative profitability, and increasing debt levels. While technical analysis shows a neutral outlook, the negative valuation metrics further weigh down the score. The absence of earnings call insights or corporate events leaves these considerations unaddressed.

Aspen Group (ASPU) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$3.69M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)9.05K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.26

Revenue Growth-19.36%

EPS Growth-84.06%

CountryUS

Employees312

SectorReal Estate

Sector Strength62

IndustryEducation & Training Services

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.04

Shares Outstanding25,462,317

10 Day Avg. Volume10,231

30 Day Avg. Volume9,052

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.02

Price to Book (P/B)0.15

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio2.69

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price TargetN/A

Price Target UpsideN/A

Rating ConsensusN/A

Number of Analyst Covering0

Aspen Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAspen Group, Inc. (ASPU) is an education technology company that operates primarily in the United States. The company focuses on providing online higher education services, targeting adult learners and other non-traditional student demographics. Aspen Group offers a range of degree programs, including nursing, business, and education, through its two main institutions: Aspen University and United States University. These institutions aim to deliver affordable, high-quality education through innovative online platforms, catering to the needs of working professionals and those seeking career advancement.

How the Company Makes MoneyAspen Group primarily generates revenue through tuition fees paid by its students enrolled in various degree programs. The company's revenue model is based on the enrollment of students in its online courses, with a significant portion of its earnings derived from the nursing programs, which have been a focal point due to high demand. Aspen Group also benefits from partnerships with healthcare organizations that can provide a steady stream of students and potential tuition reimbursement agreements. Additionally, Aspen Group may receive revenue through financial aid programs and government assistance that support students in funding their education. The company's financial performance can be influenced by enrollment trends, tuition rates, and the successful implementation of its growth strategies in the education sector.

Aspen Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Aspen Group faces significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and profitability, coupled with increasing debt levels. While there are some strengths in gross profit margins and cash flow improvements, the overall financial health remains a concern, with the company needing to address its profitability and leverage issues to improve its financial stability.

Income Statement

Negative

The company has been experiencing declining revenues and worsening profitability over the years. For the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), the gross profit margin stands at 64.4%, indicating effective cost management relative to revenue. However, the net profit margin is negative at -28.3%, highlighting significant losses. Revenue has decreased substantially compared to the previous year, showing a negative growth trajectory, which is concerning.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.86, indicating a moderate level of leverage. The return on equity is negative at -46.3% for the TTM, suggesting poor profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio of 41.7% demonstrates a solid equity base relative to total assets, but the declining stockholder's equity over the years is a negative trend.

Cash Flow

Neutral

The free cash flow growth rate is positive, which is encouraging, but the company has historically struggled with negative free cash flows. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, showing better cash generation relative to net losses, yet the overall cash position has weakened.

TTM	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
44.60M	51.40M	66.32M	76.69M	67.81M	49.06M
	Gross Profit
28.73M	31.44M	35.53M	41.44M	38.36M	29.93M
	EBIT
-2.36M	-4.15M	-5.57M	-7.47M	-5.98M	-2.61M
	EBITDA
-7.39M	-4.80M	-1.85M	-5.07M	-5.94M	-1.59M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-12.63M	-13.58M	-8.35M	-9.59M	-10.45M	-5.66M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.17M	2.62M	5.72M	6.48M	8.51M	14.35M
	Total Assets
66.34M	75.95M	80.87M	91.07M	80.81M	66.24M
	Total Debt
24.44M	26.67M	35.00M	33.72M	18.33M	15.82M
	Net Debt
23.28M	24.05M	29.28M	27.24M	9.82M	1.47M
	Total Liabilities
38.09M	43.67M	45.32M	48.52M	31.72M	24.49M
	Stockholders Equity
28.25M	32.28M	35.55M	42.55M	49.09M	41.75M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.39M	-4.81M	-7.00M	-15.61M	-7.99M	-9.04M
	Operating Cash Flow
2.47M	-3.66M	-4.40M	-11.28M	985.58K	-5.75M
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.16M	-1.33M	-2.60M	-4.33M	-8.98M	-3.29M
	Financing Cash Flow
-3.82M	1.89M	-190.47K	14.86M	3.75M	16.98M

Aspen Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price0.14

Price Trends

50DMA

0.15

Negative

100DMA

0.15

Negative

200DMA

0.14

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

>-0.01

Negative

RSI

48.49

Neutral

STOCH

50.00

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASPU, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.14, below the 50-day MA of 0.15, and above the 200-day MA of 0.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASPU.

Aspen Group Risk Analysis

Aspen Group disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aspen Group reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Aspen Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	60 Neutral	$2.75B	10.29	0.33%	8508.22%	5.95%	-17.48%
AMBO	52 Neutral	$8.08M	―	-49.39%	―	―	―
ASPU	47 Neutral	$3.69M	―	-44.40%	―	-19.36%	-84.06%
CLEU	44 Neutral	$4.61M	―	-7.45%	―	―	―
WAFU	43 Neutral	$6.40M	―	-7.52%	―	-28.27%	-409.38%
EEIQ	37 Underperform	$8.62M	―	-83.71%	―	42.73%	18.30%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ASPU

Aspen Group

0.14

-0.10

-41.67%

AMBO

Ambow Education Holding

2.85

1.39

95.21%

WAFU

Wah Fu Education Group

1.47

-0.39

-20.97%

CLEU

China Liberal Education Holdings

1.37

-1,326.79

-99.90%

EEIQ

Elite Education Group International

0.63

-0.31

-32.98%

Aspen Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 13, 2025

(Q2-2024)

% Change Since: -12.50%|

Next Earnings Date:Sep 16, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflects a positive sentiment with significant financial improvements, enrollment growth, and improved NCLEX pass rates despite revenue challenges and legal settlement costs.

Q2-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Reduced Net Loss

Net loss narrowed by 30% year-over-year, demonstrating financial discipline and effective cost management.

Positive EBITDA

Achieved fourth consecutive quarter of positive EBITDA, with a cumulative positive EBITDA of approximately $2.7 million over the past four quarters.

Cash Generation and Liquidity

Generated over $400,000 of cash from operations and projected unrestricted cash balance exceeding $2 million by the end of January 2024.

Enrollment Growth

Enrollments increased by 5% year-over-year and 34% sequentially, reflecting strong demand for postgraduate nursing degrees.

Improved NCLEX Pass Rates

NCLEX first-time pass rate in Arizona increased to 89%, with similar success in Texas and Tennessee.

Cost Control Measures

Year-over-year G&A expense down 23% due to cost control efforts and restructuring in previous fiscal quarters.

Negative Updates

Revenue Decrease

Total revenue decreased by 19% year-over-year, mainly due to the teach-out of the pre-licensure program and lower marketing spend.

Legal Settlement Costs

Final settlement of $550,000 approved for class action complaint in Arizona, with $50,000 paid by Aspen University.

Heightened Cash Management Status

Aspen University remains on Heightened Cash Management 2 status, impacting the timing of federal financial aid reimbursements.

Company Guidance

During the Aspen Group's second quarter fiscal year 2024 earnings call, executives provided detailed guidance on the company's financial and operational performance. The company reported a notable 30% year-over-year reduction in net loss and achieved positive EBITDA for the fourth consecutive quarter. Enrollments rose by 34% sequentially, driven by strong demand in the healthcare sector, particularly for postgraduate nursing degrees. Despite a 19% decrease in total revenue to $13.8 million, attributed largely to the teach-out of the pre-licensure program, gross margin improved to 63%, up from 60% the previous year. The quarter saw a decrease in G&A expenses by 23% and a marked reduction in marketing spend, contributing to a positive cash flow from operations of $409,000. The company anticipates an unrestricted cash balance exceeding $2 million by the end of January 2024, bolstered by a significant financial aid payment of approximately $3.9 million. Additionally, Aspen University reported an 89% first-time NCLEX pass rate in Arizona, reflecting improved academic performance. However, the company withheld specific guidance for future quarters.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.