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Aryzta ADR (ARZTY)
OTHER OTC:ARZTY
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Aryzta ADR
(OTC:ARZTY)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(32.40% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (sustained profitability and positive free cash flow) but held back by elevated/increasing leverage and near-term revenue softness. Guidance and commentary were broadly constructive with a credible balance-sheet improvement path, while technicals are positive but look near-term overbought and still below the 200-day trend.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective sales strategies, supporting long-term business expansion and stability.
Profitability Improvements
Improved profitability margins suggest effective cost control and operational efficiency, enhancing the company's ability to generate sustainable earnings.
Cash Flow Generation
Strong cash flow generation supports financial flexibility and the ability to invest in growth opportunities, ensuring long-term business resilience.
Negative Factors
Rising Debt Levels
Increased debt levels can strain financial stability, limiting the company's ability to invest in growth and potentially increasing vulnerability to economic downturns.
Leverage Concerns
Higher leverage can amplify financial risk, impacting the company's creditworthiness and ability to secure favorable financing terms in the future.
Liquidity Management
Constraints in liquidity management may limit the company's ability to respond to unexpected expenses or invest in strategic opportunities, affecting long-term growth.
Aryzta ADR (ARZTY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.88B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)509.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.0
Beta (1Y)0.84
Revenue Growth4.35%
EPS Growth-93.15%
CountryUS
Employees7,654
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.28
Shares Outstanding248,276,440
10 Day Avg. Volume67
30 Day Avg. Volume509
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.34
Price to Sales (P/S)0.61
P/FCF Ratio7.84
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.22
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.03
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.19
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Aryzta ADR Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionARYZTA AG provides frozen B2B baking solutions in Europe, Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. It offers pastries, cookies, donuts, muffins, buns, bread rolls and artisan loaves, sweet baked and morning goods, and savory and other products. The company also provides asset management services; and distributes food products. It serves large retail, convenience, and independent retailers, as well as quick service restaurants and other foodservice customers. In addition, it sells product under the Hiestaud, Mette Munk, Pre Pain, Cuisine de France, Coup de Pates, La Brea, Oits Spunkmeyer, and Fornetti brands. The company has 26 bakeries in 27 countries. ARYZTA AG was founded in 1897 and is based in Schlieren, Switzerland.
How the Company Makes MoneyAryzta generates revenue primarily through the sale of its bakery products to a diverse clientele, which includes supermarkets, restaurants, and food service providers. The company's revenue model is based on direct sales and distribution agreements, enabling it to maintain a steady income stream from both retail and wholesale channels. Key revenue streams include bulk sales of frozen goods, contract baking services, and customized product offerings tailored to the specifications of clients. Additionally, Aryzta benefits from strategic partnerships with major retailers and food service companies, which enhance its market reach and distribution capabilities. Factors contributing to its earnings include operational efficiency, product innovation, and the ability to respond to changing consumer preferences in the baked goods market.
Aryzta ADR Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly constructive operational and financial picture: revenue growth, EBITDA above guidance, strong free cash flow and ROIC above WACC are clear positives. Headwinds include input-cost-driven margin pressure, flat retail performance, remaining leverage above target and anticipated restructuring costs in 2026. Management has credible mitigation plans (savings program, digital investments, hybrid repayment) and a path to normalized capital structure, but some near-term execution and timing risks remain.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue and Organic Growth
Revenue of EUR 2.223 billion in FY2025 with organic growth of 1.5%, supported by volume, mix (0.5%) and pricing (1%).
EBITDA Above Guidance
EBITDA of EUR 306.9 million (13.8% margin), which was above the October guidance and demonstrates resilience in a challenging environment.
Strong Free Cash Flow and Cash Conversion
Free cash flow of EUR 120 million, representing a cash conversion of almost 40% of EBITDA; working capital improvements (trade NWC reduced to 0.2% of revenue from 0.7% in 2024) were major contributors.
Value Creation Metrics
Return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.1%, well above the group's WACC of ~8%, and earnings per share increased by 5.7% to EUR 4.25.
Balance Sheet and Financing Progress
Leverage reduced to 2.6x; announced repayment of remaining hybrid principal CHF 144.3 million at end-April 2026; total financing costs improved to EUR 41.6 million (over EUR 4 million better than low end guidance), with hybrid buyback contributing ~EUR 23 million of savings.
Innovation and Portfolio Strength
Innovation accounted for 19% of revenue and was accretive to growth, supporting margin resilience and product mix.
Regional Outperformance and Operational Progress
Rest of World delivered 2.9% organic growth and an EBITDA margin improvement of 110 basis points to 20.9%; Europe delivered 1.3% organic growth with broad-based contribution from Ireland, France, Germany and Poland.
Cost Savings and Transformation Roadmap
Midterm program targets net savings of EUR 20–30 million (gross EUR 40–60 million from operations/procurement/structure) with ~EUR 20–30 million to be reinvested in digital/AI; identified ~EUR 10 million gross annual structural cost reduction from organizational alignment.
Negative Updates
Margin Pressure from Input Costs
Input cost inflation (labor, butter, protein, chocolate) reduced gross margin by ~290 basis points; FX and other elements further negative by ~50 basis points, leaving EBITDA margin ~80 basis points below prior year.
Retail Performance Weakness
Retail revenue was broadly flat year-over-year with mixed pricing and volume trends across businesses; retail presented a more challenging performance relative to foodservice and QSR.
Leverage and Equity Ratio Not Yet at Targets
Net leverage at 2.6x remains above the stated midterm target range of 1.5–2x; core equity at 21.1% (target ~30% longer term), meaning balance sheet normalization is in progress but incomplete.
Restructuring Costs and One-Offs Headwinds in 2026
Planned restructuring and organizational alignment will incur one-off costs in 2026 (savings to be realized more fully in 2027); specifics on FTE reductions were not disclosed.
Back‑loaded Cash Flow and Near‑term CapEx Impact
Management expects 2026 cash flow to be H2-weighted, with near-term cash outflows for Perth factory completion and a major cooling system installation affecting H1 cash generation.
Uncertainty on Immediate Capital Return
Board will publish capital allocation policy during 2026; no immediate commitment to dividends or buybacks until balance sheet and equity targets progress, creating timing uncertainty for shareholder returns.
Company Guidance
ARYZTA confirmed it remains on track to deliver its mid‑term plan, guiding to low‑ to mid‑single‑digit organic growth with continued EBITDA/EBIT improvement toward targets (mid‑term EBITDA margin ≥15% and EBIT margin ≥9%), CapEx of 3.5–4.5% of revenue, and total net debt leverage of 1.5–2.0x while publishing a 2026 capital‑return policy. Management expects sustained strong free cash‑flow generation (FY‑2025 FCF €120m; cash conversion ~40% of EBITDA) with 2026 FCF to be H2‑weighted but broadly similar, and balance‑sheet improvement including repurchase of the remaining CHF144.3m hybrid end‑April, reducing leverage from 2.6x (2025) and increasing core equity from 21.1% toward ~30% by year‑end. 2026 financing costs are expected at €40–43m (FY‑2025 actual €41.6m, with ~€23m benefit from the hybrid buyback and ~37% interest exposure hedged); operational savings are targeted at €20–30m net (€40–60m gross from ops/procurement/structure, with ~€10m of gross structural annual savings identified), some restructuring costs to be incurred in 2026, and management reiterated ROIC of 12.1% in 2025 (vs WACC ~8%) and FY‑2025 revenue €2.223bn, organic growth 1.5%, EBITDA €306.9m (13.8% margin) and EPS €4.25 (+5.7%).Aryzta ADR Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Profitability and free cash flow are solid and reflect a multi-year turnaround, supported by improved gross margin and positive operating results. Offsetting this, 2025 revenue contracted and margins softened versus 2024, while leverage has increased (higher debt-to-equity), leaving less flexibility if earnings weaken.Income Statement
Profitability has materially improved versus earlier years, with 2025 showing positive operating profit (EBIT margin ~7.8%) and a solid net margin (~5.1%). Gross margin expanded sharply (to ~31.6% in 2025 from ~21.4% in 2024), but the near-term trajectory is mixed as revenue declined ~4.1% in 2025 and margins (EBITDA and net) dipped versus 2024. Longer-term, the company has recovered from significant losses in 2020–2021, but recent top-line softness keeps the outlook from scoring higher.73
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage is elevated and has increased versus 2023, with debt-to-equity rising to ~1.29 in 2025 (from ~0.66 in 2023), which reduces balance-sheet flexibility. A positive offset is improving profitability/returns (return on equity ~19.5% in 2025), but equity has also come down from prior years, amplifying leverage. Overall, the balance sheet looks workable, but debt levels remain a key risk if earnings soften.58
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is consistently positive in recent years, with operating cash flow of ~248M and free cash flow of ~165M in 2025. However, free cash flow declined (~-6.4% in 2025) and cash conversion is moderate: free cash flow is ~0.67x net income in 2025, and operating cash flow relative to EBIT is below 0.5x, suggesting working-capital or cash-timing headwinds. The trend is far healthier than 2020–2021, but not yet strong enough to be considered highly robust.67
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Jul 2023 | Jul 2022 | Jul 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.14B | 2.19B | 2.12B | 1.76B | 1.53B |
| Gross Profit | 675.16M | 469.20M | 392.30M | 318.50M | 252.50M |
| EBITDA | 293.83M | 341.00M | 280.40M | 170.30M | 182.90M |
| Net Income | 107.87M | 129.60M | 112.00M | 900.00K | -235.80M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.89B | 1.91B | 1.97B | 2.08B | 2.06B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 68.57M | 77.10M | 130.80M | 245.80M | 170.90M |
| Total Debt | 714.20M | 816.40M | 524.90M | 535.80M | 373.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.33B | 1.46B | 1.17B | 1.15B | 961.60M |
| Stockholders Equity | 552.86M | 452.10M | 793.30M | 932.40M | 1.10B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 165.31M | 204.60M | 197.30M | 116.80M | 300.00K |
| Operating Cash Flow | 247.53M | 298.90M | 251.40M | 200.10M | 84.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -92.50M | -93.40M | -60.10M | 8.90M | 633.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -158.97M | -230.60M | -299.10M | -143.40M | -976.00M |
Aryzta ADR Technical Analysis
Positive
6.42
Price Trends
6.96
Positive
6.66
Positive
7.99
Negative
Market Momentum
0.23
Negative
56.61
Neutral
59.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARZTY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.35, below the 50-day MA of 6.96, and below the 200-day MA of 7.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ARZTY.
Aryzta ADR Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $3.70B | 21.37 | 12.35% | ― | 16.34% | 177.51% | |
68 Neutral | $1.88B | 12.02 | 23.34% | ― | 4.35% | -93.15% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $1.41B | 19.23 | 5.04% | ― | 8.98% | -26.29% | |
62 Neutral | $1.39B | 11.70 | 5.35% | 5.40% | 1.44% | 8.29% | |
54 Neutral | $1.88B | 27.30 | 6.02% | 9.15% | 0.26% | -19.45% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
ARZTY
Aryzta ADR
7.60
-0.88
-10.38%
FLO
Flowers Foods
8.89
-8.41
-48.60%
SMPL
Simply Good Foods
15.22
-19.23
-55.82%
FRPT
Freshpet
75.37
-13.95
-15.62%
NOMD
Nomad Foods
9.76
-9.16
-48.42%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.